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Global oppor tunities
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COUNTRY WANTS
What is the world’s fastest-aging society?
After 2040 there
will be a diverse
range among the
world’s superaged
societies
By Brigitte Miksa
I
f South Korea is the Usain Bolt of aging, then France is clearly Eddie
“The Eagle” Edwards. While it will have taken France more than 170
years to become a superaged country, South Korea will achieve the
feat in a historic eye blink of three decades.
But when it comes to aging, a society is far better off performing like
Eddie, who famously came in last by a wide margin in ski jumping
events at the 1988 Calgary Games, than like Bolt, who is considered the
fastest sprinter ever. This is because of the drag that an aging population
places on economic growth.
When France became an aging country (see breakout box) in 1850,
slavery was still an institution in the US, the light globe had not been
invented, and Germany not yet unified. Some 130 years later, when
France became an aged society, two world wars had been fought, the
atomic bomb built and used, and horseless carriages were the main
form of transport worldwide. France is finally expected to become
superaged in 2023. In comparison, South Korea, which became an
Allianz • 47
MACRO
aging society only in 1999, is expected to become aged in
As the global economic balance shifts towards non-OECD
2018 and superaged a decade later in 2028 (see graph). But
areas and the gap between developed and emerging
economies harmonizes, there will be less incentive to
although South Korea is the front-runner in terms of rapid
move, so work-related immigration towards OECD areas
aging, it is heading a closely bunched pack of nations that
will slow. The OECD believes this could result in a labor
include Bangladesh, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam all
competing for the title of “world’s fastest-aging country”.
force in the euro area 20% lower than today, while in the US,
a 15% drop is expected.
The aging of our societies is one of the greatest success
stories of the 20th century. It means more than 30 years
AGING QUICKER THAN YOU THINK
have been added to the lives of individuals in many part of
the world over the last century. This is well worth
Currently only Germany, Italy and Japan are considered
celebrating, but the title of world’s fastest-aging is not one
superaged – where more than one in five of the population
any country would welcome as societal aging comes with
is 65 or older. By 2020, Bulgaria, Finland, Greece
and Portugal will join them. Europe will continue
significant long-term economic consequences.
The OECD, a Paris-based club of rich countries
to age with another 17 countries, including Austria, France,
promoting sustainable growth, warned last year that the
Sweden and the United Kingdom expected to become
superaged societies by 2030, along with Canada, Cuba,
deep-seated, unprecedented rate of population aging could
help to slow global annual economic growth from an
Hong Kong and South Korea.
average of 3.6% this decade to about 2.4% between 2050 and
Until 2040, rapid societal aging could be considered
2060. In particular, OECD countries will be
mainly a developed world problem, but by then
hit by a double demographic shock, as the
IF SOUTH KOREA
it is expected there will be a diverse range
report Shifting Gear: Policy Challenges for the
IS THE USAIN
among the 55 superaged societies. China,
Next 50 Years states bluntly. The aging trend,
BOLT OF AGING,
Singapore, Thailand and Puerto Rico will join
already observable in advanced and many
THEN FRANCE
the US to cross the threshold to superaged.
emerging economies, will be compounded
IS CLEARLY
However, in terms of the rapidity of aging, Iran,
by the second effect of slowing immigration
EDDIE “THE EAGLE”
still considered young, could beat South Korea
EDWARDS
from low-income economies.
to the title of world’s fastest-aging country. By
»
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MACRO
2050, Iran could have become superaged in less than three
decades, according to projections by Allianz (see graph).
The speed of this transformation is remarkable. For
years, Japan was considered to have the most rapidly aging
population on earth. The Land of the Rising Sun went from
having the youngest population among G7 countries in the
early 1960s to become the world’s oldest country in 2008 – a
time period of 38 years. If the projections hold true, then
Iran will accomplish the transformation a decade quicker.
Aging is due to rising life expectancy coupled with
falling fertility rates. While the speed of the decline in the
fertility rate has been dramatic around the world, it is
astonishing in Iran, where it dropped from seven children
per woman in 1984 to 1.9 in 2006. This is about as fast as
social change can happen and will certainly have longterm consequences as the working-age population declines
and the elderly population soars.
Hidden away in the statistics are a group of countries
that never age. As societies, they are not confronted with
issues stemming from population aging and decline, yet
this is far from the happy state you might imagine.
Countries such as Sierra Leone, Lesotho, Central African
Republic and Zimbabwe have some of the lowest overall life
expectancies at birth on the planet. Famine, corruption,
conflict, lack of access to clean water and education, and
AIDS mean on average no male or female lives beyond 48
years. For such countries, the problems confronting aging
societies are a luxury their people can only dream of.
Aging societies: one of the great success
stories of the 20th century
D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E . YO U N G – AG I N G – AG E D – S U P E R AG E D. 18 5 0 –20 5 0
A s a c o n v e nt i o n , o n c e 7 % o f a c o u n t r y ’s p o p u l a t i o n i s 6 5 y e a r s o l d o r o v e r, r e s e a r c h e r s c o n s i d e r i t “a g i n g”. W h e n i t
e xc e e d s 14 % , t h e c o u n t r y i s s e e n t o b e “a g e d ”. I n t h i s r e s p e c t , w i t h o n l y 5 .7 % o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n a g e d 6 5 o r o v e r, M a l a y s i a ,
f o r e x a m p l e , i s c o n s i d e r e d a y o u n g c o u n t r y, w h e r e a s Tu r ke y l i e s j u s t o v e r t h e 7 % t h r e s h o l d . Fr a n c e a n d t h e U K ( b o t h
18 % ) b e l o n g t o t h e a g e d c o u n t r i e s , b e c a u s e t h e y l i e o v e r t h e n e x t t h r e s h o l d o f 14 % . G e r m a n y (21% ), I t a l y (22 % ) a n d
J a p a n (26 % ) a r e a l r e a d y b e i n g r ef e r r e d t o a s “s u p e r a g e d ” a s t h e y h a v e r e a c h e d t h e n e x t t h r e s h o l d o f 21% .
Superaged
(21%)
Fr a n c e
UK
US
Germany
Japan
S o u t h Ko r e a
China
2050
20 0 0
1950
190 0
Aging
(7%)
1850
Age d
(14%)
Iran
Source: Unite d Nations Population Di v ision, US Census Bureau, St atistisches Reichs amt, K isella and Gist,
Mir k in and Weinberger, A llianz, Inter national Pensions
Allianz • 49