Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon Control of introduced mammalian predators improves kaka Nestor meridionalis breeding success: reversing the decline of a threatened New Zealand parrot Ron Moorhousea, Terry Greeneb,*, Peter Dilksb, Ralph Powleslandc, Les Morana, Genevieve Taylora, Alan Jonesb, Jaap Knegtmansb, Dave Willsc, Moira Prydeb, Ian Fraserb, Andrew Augustc, Claude Augustc a Department of Conservation, Science and Research Unit, c/o Nelson-Marlborough Conservancy Office, Private Bag 5, Nelson, New Zealand Department of Conservation, Science and Research Unit, c/o Canterbury Conservancy Office, Private Bag 4715, Christchurch, New Zealand c Department of Conservation, Science and Research Unit, PO Box 10420, Wellington, New Zealand b Received 10 September 2001; received in revised form 15 May 2002; accepted 28 May 2002 Abstract The kaka (Nestor meridionalis) is a threatened, endemic New Zealand parrot that is declining primarily because of predation by introduced mammals. Numbers of female kaka surviving to sexual maturity more than compensated for adult female mortality at three sites with predator control but not at three unmanaged sites. Nesting success at the sites with predator control was significantly greater (580%) than at unmanaged sites (438%) while predation on adult females was significantly less (5% c.f. 65%). Predation was the most common cause of nesting failure at all sites. Stoats (Mustela erminea) appeared to be the main predator, although evidence of possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) predation on eggs, nestlings and nesting females was also found. These results suggest that control of stoats and possums can potentially reverse the decline of the kaka on the main islands of New Zealand. # 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Psittaciformes; Conservation; Mustelids; Brush-tail possums; Rats; Poison-bait stations; Trapping 1. Introduction The kaka (Nestor meridionalis) is an endemic New Zealand parrot (Heather and Robertson, 1996). Formerly widespread and abundant in native forest throughout the New Zealand archipelago (Buller, 1888), it is now common in only a fraction of its former range (Bull et al., 1985; Heather and Robertson, 1996; Wilson et al., 1998). Forest clearance has destroyed a significant amount of kaka habitat (Heather and Robertson, 1996). However, the fact that the kaka has become rare within some large tracts of indigenous forest suggests that introduced predators and competitors, now widespread on the main islands of New Zealand, have also played a part in its decline (Beggs and Wilson, 1991; Wilson et al., 1998). * Corresponding author. Fax: +64-3-315-1388. E-mail address: [email protected] (T. Greene). Kaka breed between October and July, however, breeding intensity is strongly influenced by the size of the seed crops produced by certain forest trees, this being the principle food of nestlings and fledglings (Moorhouse, 1991; Wilson et al., 1998). For example, in Big Bush in the northern South Island, Wilson et al. (1998) found that kaka only attempted to breed when red beech (Nothofagus fusca) produced seed, an event that occurred, on average, every 2.3 years. Nests are located in tree cavities and the female alone incubates the eggs and broods the nestlings. The usual clutch and brood sizes are 4 and 2 respectively (Moorhouse, 1991) although up to 5 young can be fledged (personal observation). The incubation and nestling periods are 23 and 60 days respectively (Moorhouse and Greene, 1995) and fledglings usually do not become independent for another 5–6 months (Moorhouse and Greene, 1995; Wilson et al., 1998). Pairs can fledge two broods in one year if seed crops are sufficiently abundant (personal observation). 0006-3207/02/$ - see front matter # 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S0006-3207(02)00173-8 34 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 In Big Bush Forest in the northern South Island, Wilson et al. (1998) found that only two of 20 nesting attempts monitored over an 11-year period were successful. Only five young fledged, while predators, probably stoats (Mustela erminea), killed four of seven radiotagged nesting females. By comparison, on stoat-free Kapiti Island, 14 of 35 nesting attempts were successful producing 22 young without any female mortality (Moorhouse, 1991). Wilson et al. (1998) concluded that the kaka is continuing to decline on the main islands of New Zealand, primarily because of predation by stoats on nesting females. This hypothesis is consistent with the discovery that kaka populations elsewhere had male biased sex ratios (Greene and Fraser, 1998). Although stoat predation appears to be the main reason for the kaka’s decline, other introduced predators may also contribute. For example, Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) preyed on kaka nestlings on Kapiti Island (Moorhouse, 1991) and the more widely distributed (Innes, 1990) ship rat (Rattus rattus) may also be a predator of kaka eggs and nestlings on the main islands. Competition with introduced species may also be a factor in the decline of kaka. Possums and introduced wasps (Vespula spp.) compete with kaka for food and possums may also compete for nest sites (Beggs and Wilson, 1991; Moorhouse, 1997; Wilson et al., 1998). Kaka have declined on the South Island’s West Coast following the invasion of this region by possums and increased on Kapiti Island following the eradication of possums there (Veltman, 2000). Although there are no published records of possums preying on kaka, they are a major egg predator of the glossy-black cockatoo (Calyptorhychus lathami) (Garnett et al., 1999), a similar-sized (c. 400 g) Australian parrot (Forshaw, 1989). Parrots are the focus of increasing international conservation concern. Collar and Andrew (1988) found evidence to suggest that 21.4% (71 species) of the 330 extant parrot species were in danger of extinction with another of 9% (29 species) potentially threatened. Although the main threats to parrots are usually habitat loss and poaching for the illegal pet trade (op. cit.), there is evidence that introduced pests pose a serious threat to the survival of insular species (Gnam and Rockwell, 1991; Wilson, 1993; Garnett et al., 1999). The role of introduced species in the decline of a variety of New Zealand birds, including parrots, has been well documented (Lloyd and Powlesland, 1994; Clout et al., 1995; Elliott et al., 1996; McLennan et al., 1996; Wilson et al., 1998; Innes et al., 1999). If introduced predators are responsible for the continuing decline of kaka populations then it should be possible to reverse this by controlling these pests. In this paper we attempt to test this hypothesis by comparing kaka breeding success at six sites; three with, and three without, predator control. 2. Study areas Data on kaka breeding success were obtained from six sites, three with predator control and three without (Fig. 1, Table 1). 2.1. Rotoiti Nature Recovery Project (RNRP) The RNRP is the site of an ongoing ecosystem restoration project designed to benefit a number of native species including kaka (Butler, 1998). Possums and ship-rats were controlled between June 1997 and June 2000 using poison bait stations placed in a grid pattern at 100–150 m intervals. Beginning in June 1997 these stations were first baited with 1080TM (sodium monofluoroacetate) and then with TalonTM (brodifacoum). During the 1997 kaka breeding season individual kaka nest-trees were protected from introduced predators by sheathing a section of their trunks with sheet metal. In addition, a ring of 25 Mk VI FennTM traps baited with rabbit meat were set at a radius of 25 m around each nest tree. These methods were discontinued in subsequent breeding seasons after stoat trap-lines had been established around the perimeter of, and within, the RNRP. Three-hundred and two Mk VI FennTM traps have been deployed since July 1998 (cleared and Fig. 1. Map of New Zealand showing location of kaka study-sites. R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 Table 1 Sites from which data on kaka breeding success were obtained RNRP Eglinton WEA Forest type Beecha Beecha Area (ha) 825 13,000 Control Yes Yes Rotoroa Big Bush Whirinaki Podocarpb Beecha 1100 600 Yes No Beechc c.500 No Podocarpd 4880 No RNRP=Rotoiti Nature Recovery Project, WEA=Waipapa Ecological Area. Beech=Nothofagus spp., podocarp=members of the Podocarpaceae. ‘‘Control’’ means predator control. Data on kaka breeding success in Big Bush were obtained by Wilson et al. (1998) from 1984 to 1996; data from the other sites were collected by the authors between 1996 and 2000. a Personal observation. b Leathwick (1987). c Wilson et al. (1998). d Morton et al. (1984). re-baited weekly) and have killed 183 stoats between then and June 2000. Since 34 of a sample of 54 stoat livers were found to contain brodifacoum (D. J. Butler, unpublished data) an unknown proportion of stoats may also have died of secondary poisoning. Two hundred and nineteen ship rats and six ferrets (Mustela furo), other potential kaka predators, were also killed in FennTM traps between July 1998 and June 2000. 35 stoat irruptions when they were serviced weekly. Possums have been controlled with 1080TM dispensed from a line of poison bait stations running along the valley floor since 1994. 2.4. Rotoroa This study-site was located 20 km from the RNRP at the southeastern corner of Lake Rotoroa (Fig. 2). There was no predator control at this site. 2.5. Whirinaki This study-site lies about 100 km from the WEA (Fig. 1). Although there was no systematic predator control at Whirinaki during the period of our research, recreational possum hunting did occur. 2.6. Big Bush This unmanaged study-site (c. 500 ha) was less than 2 km from the RNRP (Fig. 2) (for a detailed description see Wilson et al., 1998). 3. Methods 2.2. Waipapa Ecological Area (WEA) 3.1. Finding and monitoring nests The WEA (4013 ha, Fig. 1) is the site of an ongoing ecosystem restoration project similar to that in the RNRP. Kaka research was conducted in an 1100 ha study-site within the WEA. Control of possums with poison bait stations began in late 1993 and was expanded in December 1995. Stations are arranged on a 150m grid and were initially baited with 1080TM followed by applications of TalonTM possum bait. From 1996 to 1997 anticoagulent toxins (TalonTM PB, TalonTM 50 WB, VenomTM B and Pest OffTM) were used, while during 2000–2001 a combination of 1080 in cereal baits and WarfarinTM (in peanut butter paste and cereal pellets) were used. Some control of mustelids probably occurred through secondary poisoning (Murphy et al., 1998). Between 13 and 54 adult kaka were radio-tagged at each study site (total=178). By radio-tracking these birds the outcome of between 10 and 31 nesting attempts (113 in total) was determined at each site. With the exception of the WEA, where nests were sometimes checked at intervals of up to one month, at all other study-sites nests were checked every 1–7 days. At each study-site a sample of up to 10 nestlings was radio-tagged each season to allow estimation of post-fledging survival. At the RNRP and Rotoroa, but not at the other study-sites, the sex of radio-tagged fledglings was determined using the measurement criteria described in Moorhouse et al. (1999). 2.3. Eglinton Valley 3.2. Predator identification The Eglinton Valley is the site of a stoat and possum control programme originally intended to protect a remnant population of Mohua (Mohua ochrocephala), a hole-nesting native passerine (O’Donnell et al., 1996). A 40-km long stoat trap-line running the length of the valley was in continuous operation from January 1998 to May 2001. This was comprised of 193 trapping stations spaced at 200 m intervals, a station being a wooden tunnel (200200600 mm) containing two Mk VI FennTM traps with bait placed between them. Traps were checked and re-baited monthly, except during At Big Bush predators were identified by the caching of kaka remains (stoats and ferrets are the only predators in New Zealand likely to cache prey the size of adult or fledgling kaka; King, 1990; Lavers and Clapperton, 1990) or sightings of predators in the nest, or nest-tree, after predation had occurred (Wilson et al., 1998). At the other study-sites, kaka corpses that showed signs of predation were also examined for mammalian hair and dissected to reveal canine punctures in flesh and bone. The distance between paired canine punctures was measured for comparison with the 36 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 Fig. 2. Location of the Rotoiti Nature Recovery Project, Big Bush and Rotoroa study-sites. Shaded areas are forest, unshaded areas are grassland, or lakes (labelled), hatched areas are study-sites, solid lines are streams or rivers, double solid lines are roads. intercanine distances of different mammalian predators given in Ratz and Moller (in press). At sites other than Big Bush, hair found on kaka corpses or in nests where birds had been preyed on was identified by its species, or genus-specific, scale pattern (Day, 1966). Dead birds that showed no evidence of predation were sent to a veterinary laboratory for autopsy. The remains of eggs that had been preyed on were compared to the photographs of feeding sign on eggs left by different predators in Brown et al. (1996). greater productivity; sites with predator control produced twice the number of fledglings per nest as the most productive unmanaged site (Table 2). Because of the close proximity of Big Bush and the RNRP, the Big Bush data provide an estimate of kaka nesting success before the implementation of predator control in the RNRP. Nesting success in the RNRP was significantly higher than it was in Big Bush irrespective of the method of predator control employed (1-tailed Fisher’s Exact test; RNRP 1997 vs Big Bush, P=0.001; RNRP 1998–1999 vs Big Bush, P < 0.001). 4. Results 4.2. Predator abundance 4.1. Breeding success If, by chance, the managed sites always had significantly lower predator numbers than the unmanaged sites, then this, rather than predator control, might explain the higher nesting success observed at these sites. With respect to stoats, we only have comparable abundance data from three study-sites, Big Bush, the RNRP and Eglinton (Fig. 3). Because of the relatively small number of trap-nights at Big Bush (150, c.f. 9060 in the RNRP and 11,580 in Eglinton) these data are too Nesting success (% successful nests) at sites with predator control was significantly higher than at sites without it (Table 2). Logistic Regression indicates that predator control significantly increased nesting success (Wald statistic=5.993, df=1, P=0.014) while siteeffects were insignificant (Wald statistic=4.837, df=4, P=0.304). Higher nesting success was manifested in 37 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 imprecise to show if stoats were more, or less, abundant there than they were in the RNRP and Eglinton (Fig. 3). Despite their wide geographic separation, seasonal fluctuations in stoat abundance in the RNRP and Eglinton were very similar and relatively high stoat numbers occurred at both sites in the summers of 1999 and 2000 (Fig. 3). With respect to possums the available data shows that these declined in abundance at all three managed sites following the implementation of possum control and that their pre-control abundance in the WEA was similar to that in Whirinaki (Fig. 4). The higher possum abundances recorded in Whirinaki and the WEA relative to Eglinton and the RNRP probably reflect the greater carrying capacity of podocarp compared to beech forest (Cowan, 1990). There was no significant difference in rat abundance between the RNRP and Rotoroa and temporal trends between these two sites were similar (Fig. 5). 4.3. Causes of nesting failure If predator control was responsible for the higher nesting success observed at managed sites then predation would be expected to have been the primary cause of nest failure at unmanaged sites. The most common cause of nesting failure at unmanaged sites was egg mortality (Table 3). Most such failures (12 of 20) occurred in Big Bush where it was not clear if females did not get enough food to sustain incubation, deserted the nest after being disturbed by predators, or the clutch had been preyed on (P. R. Wilson, personal communi- Table 2 Comparison of kaka breeding success at sites with (bold type), and without, predator control No. of nesting attempts No. successful nests % Successsful nests 95% Confidence limits No. chicks fledged No. chicks fledged/nest RNRP WEA Eglinton Big Bush Rotoroa Whirinaki 14 12 86 68–100 35 2.5 31 27 87 75–99 70 2.3 25 20 80 64–96 55 2.2 20 2 10 1–31 5 0.25 10 1 10 0–45 4 0.4 13 5 38 11–65 14 1.1 Big Bush data are from Wilson et al. (1998). Data were collected between 1996 and 2000 except for Big Bush (1984–1996). Fig. 3. Relative abundance of stoats at three kaka study-sites. The maximum 95% confidence limits are shown for Big Bush data; 95% confidence limits for RNRP and Eglinton are <0.2. 38 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 cation). However, in the 11 such cases recorded at other sites eggs had either preyed on, or removed, from nests. In most cases there was no evidence to suggest what had eaten, or removed, the eggs. However, stoat, possum and ship-rat hair was found in three nests in which eggs had been preyed on and eggshell remains in a fourth closely resembled possum feeding sign. Although we can’t be sure that the hairs found did not Fig. 4. Relative abundance of possums at five kaka study-sites and the maximum 95% confidence limits for each site. Arrows indicate when possum control began at each site. Fig. 5. Relative abundance of ship rats at three kaka study-sites. Maximum 95% confidence limits are shown for the RNRP and Rotoroa; 95% confidence limits for Eglinton are <0.2. 39 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 pre or post-date the actual predation or scavenging, hair from these predators was not found in litter samples from nine successful nests. Predation of nesting females was the next most common cause of nesting failure (Table 3). Only two of the 15 radio-tagged females that died during the course of this study (13%) showed no evidence of having been killed by a predator. Of the remainder, apart from one bird that appeared to have been shot by a poacher and two that were killed by unknown predators outside the breeding season, the remaining 10 displayed injuries consistent with predation and their remains were found either in their nest chamber or cached underground near their nest tree. Although both stoats and ferrets are large enough to cache an adult female kaka, only stoats have sufficient climbing ability to reach most kaka nests (King, 1990; Lavers and Clapperton, 1990). Evidence of stoat predation (caching of remains, sightings of stoats in the nesttree and tooth punctures of the appropriate size and spacing) was found in 8 of the 10 cases of nesting female mortality. In the other two cases the females’ remains displayed tooth-punctures larger than could be inflicted by a stoat and possum fur was found in one nest chamber. We suspect that possums killed these birds. The incidence of predation on nesting females was significantly higher at sites without predator control; 65% (11/17) of radio-tagged breeding females were killed by predators at unmanaged sites compared to 5% (2/38) at sites with predator control (Fisher’s Exact Test, P=0.001). Nestling mortality was the third most common cause of nesting failure (Table 3). In all cases the entire brood was found dead with injuries consistent with having been either preyed on or scavenged. Evidence of stoat predation, or scavenging (caching of dead nestlings, sightings of stoats in the nest-tree or tooth punctures of the appropriate size and spacing), was found in five of the seven instances of brood failure. One of the remaining two broods appeared to have been preyed on by a possum while the predator, or scavenger, of the third could not be identified. 4.4. Post-fledging survival The survival of a sample of radio-tagged fledglings was monitored at all sites but their sex was determined only at the RNRP and Rotoroa. Because so few fledglings were produced at the unmanaged sites estimates of fledgling survival are not precise enough to allow meaningful comparison between unmanaged and managed sites (Table 4). The remains of 20 of the 25 fledglings that have been confirmed dead (80%) displayed injuries consistent with either having been preyed on or scavenged. Evidence of mustelid predation, or scavenging (caching, tooth punctures of the appropriate size and spacing, hair), was found in 13 (65%) of these cases. Although no diagnostic mustelid sign was found on the other remains, this cannot be ruled out since all were missing body parts and in two cases only the fledgling’s bloodstained transmitters were found. Table 3 Relative incidence of different kinds of nesting failure in kaka at sites with and without predator control Predator control (n=70) No predator control (n=43) Egg mortality Female killed Nestling mortality Non-predation Total 4% 46% 3% 21% 3% 12% 6% 5% 16% 84% ‘‘Female killed’’ means that the female was preyed on while nesting. Nesting attempts in which females died have been treated as a separate category to other causes of nesting failure. ‘‘Egg mortality’’ means that eggs failed to hatch for unknown reasons, or, because they were preyed on. ‘‘Nestling mortality’’ means that nestlings were either preyed on or scavenged. ‘‘Non-predation’’ includes all causes of failure other than predation (e.g. flooding). Table 4 Survival of radio-tagged kaka fledglings to 1 year at sites with (bold-type), and without, predator control Study-site RNRP WEA Eglinton Big Bush Rotoroa Whirinaki No. radio-tagged No. confirmed dead No. not located No. confirmed alive No. surviving females % Surviving 95% Confidence limits 30 12 3 15 6 50 31–69 18 7 0 11 c. 5 61 38–84 13 0 0 11 c. 5 85 65–100 5 1 2 2 c.2 40 0–84 4 1 2 1 1 25 0–68 7 4 0 3 c. 1 43 6–80 Big Bush data are from Wilson et al. (1998). Data were collected between 1996 and 2000 except for Big Bush (1984–1996). Numbers of surviving female fledglings shown for the WEA, Eglinton, Big Bush, and Whirinaki assume a 50:50 sex ratio at fledging. 40 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 At Big Bush, the WEA, Rotoroa and Whirinaki all fledgling mortality occurred within 10 days of fledging. Kaka fledglings are vulnerable to predators during this period because they are inept fliers and spend most of their time on the ground (Moorhouse and Greene, 1995; Wilson et al., 1998). However, in the RNRP all but two of the 12 cases of fledgling mortality occurred at least 35 days after fledglings had left the nest, long after fledglings are capable fliers and spend virtually no time on the ground (Moorhouse and Greene, 1995). Causes of mortality other than predation included three cases of apparent starvation in the WEA plus one case of disease and one of brodifacoum poisoning in the RNRP. In the last case, brodifacoum was detected in the fledgling’s liver and it had suffered extensive haemorrhaging in the alimentary tract, a characteristic indication of anticoagulant poisoning. The livers of two of the 10 fledglings that appeared to have been killed by stoats in the RNRP were recovered for toxicological analysis. One of these was also found to contain sub-lethal levels of brodifacoum. 4.5. Relative importance of different predators Considering all mortality in which predators were implicated, evidence of stoat predation was found in 30% of cases and evidence of stoat or ferret predation in another 15% (Table 5). 4.6. Demographic significance of the results For predator control to be of any benefit to kaka conservation the difference in nesting success between managed and unmanaged sites must be demographically as well as statistically significant; the recruitment of young females at managed sites must exceed adult female mortality. Since free-living female kaka can breed at 1 year of age (K. Barlow, personal communication) we can estimate potential recruitment by estimating the survival of female fledglings to 1 year. Because we only have a relatively reliable estimate of female fledgling survival for the RNRP we have used this to estimate the potential number of female recruits at the other sites. We did this by assuming that half of the total number of fledglings produced at each site was female and then multiplying this number by the proportion of female young to survive to 1 year in the RNRP. Since the RNRP had the lowest fledgling survival of the three managed sites our estimates of potential female recruitment for the other managed sites should be conservative. Nonetheless, estimated potential female recruitment significantly exceeded adult female mortality at all three managed sites but at none of the unmanaged sites (Fig. 6). In fact, the reverse was true at two of the unmanaged sites while at the third, Whirinaki, the difference between adult female mortality and recruitment was insignificant (Fig. 6). This analysis does not address the minimum area over which predator control operations need to be conducted to benefit kaka. Virtually all the young fledged within the WEA’s kaka study-site (1100 ha) have remained there indicating that this area was sufficient to allow recruitment into managed habitat. However, most fledglings produced within the RNRP (825 ha) and the Eglinton (13,000 ha) have dispersed into surrounding unmanaged habitat suggesting that neither of these sites are big enough to contain most of the young fledged within them. This variability in the mobility of kaka fledglings from site to site makes it impossible to provide a generalised estimate of the minimum area over which predator control needs to be conducted. A computer model (Elliott et al., in preparation) is being developed to estimate minimum area requirements for specific populations. 5. Discussion Although further work is required to establish the minimum area over which predator control should be conducted, our results indicate that poison bait-station grids, either alone or in combination with FennTM trap-lines, can potentially reverse the decline of kaka populations. Since stoats are both ubiquitous (King, 1990) and an important predator of kaka, the high nesting success observed in the WEA in the absence of stoat-trapping seems anomalous. However, King et al. (1996a,b) found that stoats were relatively rare in the WEA before the Table 5 Relative frequency of predation by different predators on kaka clutches, nesting females, broods and fledglings Suspected predator Clutches Females Broods Stoat Stoat or ferret Possum Rat Unknown 1 0 2 1 19 8 0 2 0 0 5 0 1 0 1 Total 23 10 7 Fledglings Total % 4 9 0 0 7 18 9 5 1 27 30 15 8 2 45 20 60 – R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 beginning of predator control and that they did not display the marked seasonal peaks of abundance recorded in beech forest. There is also considerable evidence that stoats can be effectively controlled (100% mortality of resident radio-tagged animals) by secondary poisoning following 1080TM or brodifacoum operations for possums or rats (Alterio et al., 1997; Brown et al., 1998; Gillies and Pierce 1999; Murphy et al., 1999; Alterio, 2000). Since one of these toxins has always been in use in the WEA this could also have contributed to the low incidence of stoat predation on kaka there. 5.1. Generality Although our results came from study-sites that were both far apart and located in different forest types, the low number of replicates limits their generality. This is particularly so with respect to podocarp forest which comprised only two of the six study-sites. The evidence for the effectiveness of predator control in beech forest is better, both because of the greater number of replicates and the ‘‘before’’ and ‘‘after’’ comparison provided by the Big Bush and RNRP data. The proximity and similarity of these sites provides good evidence that predator control can improve kaka breeding success in beech forest. 41 5.2. Predator abundance With the exception of possums in the WEA, the available data on predator abundance are insufficient to establish if predator numbers at managed sites were lower than at unmanaged sites. However, we think such bias to be unlikely. With respect to stoats, the close proximity of Big Bush and the RNRP together with the relatively long periods during which kaka breeding success was monitored at both sites argues against the possibility of significant differences in stoat abundance between them. Futhermore, the stoat abundance data from the RNRP and Eglinton show the order of magnitude increases in abundance that typically occur in beech forests in the year following a beech-seed year (King, 1983). As one of these peaks coincided with a kaka breeding season our estimates of breeding success for these sites include at least one season during which stoat numbers were relatively high. Since we have no data on stoat abundance for the two podocarp forest sites and these are relatively far apart, it is possible that the WEA had significantly fewer stoats than Whirinaki. King et al. (1996a) found that stoat densities in North Island podocarp forest appeared to be lower and to display much less marked seasonal fluctuations than in beech forest. This may explain the Fig. 6. Estimated female recruitment and estimated adult female mortality at kaka study-sites with (bold type) and without predator control. Confidence limits are 77% since this gives a 0.05 probability of overlap between recruitment and mortality estimates. Data were collected between 1996 and 2000 except for Big Bush (1984–1996). RNRP=Rotoiti Nature Recovery Project, WEA=Waipapa Ecological Area, EGTN=Eglinton, BB=Big Bush, RTR=Rotoroa, WNKI=Whirinaki. Numbers in parentheses indicate the number of nesting attempts monitored at each site. 42 R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 relatively high nesting success of Whirinaki relative to the other unmanaged sites (Table 2). 5.3. The evidence for predation as the main cause of nest failure at unmanaged sites Although we cannot exclude the possibility that some clutches or broods may have been abandoned and then scavenged, the fact that not a single failed clutch or brood was found intact suggests that predation was the primary cause of nesting failure. With respect to the mortality of nesting females observed in this study, the absence of a single instance of such mortality in 35 nesting attempts on stoat and possum-free Kapiti island (Moorhouse, 1991) strongly suggests that introduced predators killed these birds. Causes of mortality other than predation were relatively unimportant. However, the fact that one of the three dead fledglings in the RNRP whose livers were available for analysis had almost certainly died of brodifacoum poisoning while another had ingested sublethal levels of brodifacoum, raises the possibility that fledglings may have been scavenged after dying of brodifacoum poisoning, or have been rendered more vulnerable to stoats after eating this toxin. Since kaka fledglings do not begin to forage for themselves until about 3 months after fledging (Moorhouse and Greene, 1995), this could explain why fledglings tended to die later in the RNRP relative to other study-sites. The discovery that kaka fledglings are vulnerable to brodifacoum poisoning obviously has serious implications for pest management in New Zealand. Since estimated female recruitment exceeded estimated adult female mortality in the RNRP and no evidence of kaka fledglings being poisoned by brodifacoum (or any other toxin) was found at the other managed sites, the benefits of brodifacoum would appear to outweigh the risks. Nonetheless, it would be preferable to investigate alternative forms of pest control, kaka-proof bait stations, or baits that are unattractive to kaka fledglings. 5.4. Relative importance of different predators Although little evidence was found to identify the predators of eggs, stoats were implicated in most cases of predation on nesting females and nestlings, and stoats and ferrets were implicated in most cases of fledgling mortality. Population modelling (Seal et al., 1993) suggests that predation of adult females is the most damaging to kaka populations. Consequently, the significantly lower incidence of such predation at sites with predator control is an important result. Although possums are known to prey on other native bird species (Brown et al., 1993; Innes et al., 1999), the evidence found in this study that possums preyed on kaka eggs, nestlings and nesting females is, to the best of our knowledge, the first. Although the sample size is too small to reliably estimate the relative importance of such predation, since possums are now both widespread and abundant (Cowan, 1990) it could be significant. The single instance of poaching recorded during this study occurred at Whirinaki where there is an isolated human settlement in which many of the residents have a long tradition of hunting forest birds for food. We suspect that the poaching of kaka is a relatively rare occurrence and is confined to such localities. 6. Conclusion 6.1. Implications for management Although a variety of predator control methods were involved in this study it is possible to make some general recommendations. Poison baits, either 1080TM or brodifacoum, were used to control possums and rats at all managed sites and may also have controlled stoats through secondary poisoning. Consequently, despite the apparent risk to kaka fledglings from brodifacoum, we recommend the use of these, or similar toxins, to control pest species in kaka habitat. Poison baits should be dispensed from bait stations spaced at 100–150 m intervals. The fact that most fledglings dispersed from the RNRP suggests that a managed area of 825 ha is insufficient for recruitment into managed habitat in homogenous beech forest. The dispersal of juvenile kaka from the Eglinton suggests that even 13,000 ha may not be big enough in more heterogeneous beech forest where kaka travel long distances to localised food sources. In the absence of other information we can only recommend that predator control in homogenous beech forest be conducted over an area of at least 1600 ha as suggested by computer simulation of the RNRP population (Elliott et al., in preparation). With respect to podocarp forest, we recommend that predator control be conducted over an area at least as large as the WEA’s kaka study-site (1100 ha) since this was evidently large enough to contain a self-recruiting population. We would also recommend the use of FennTM traplines to control stoats in beech forest. These can be deployed as a perimeter ring with additional internal lines as in the RNRP, or as a single transect along a valley floor as in the Eglinton. Since kaka are most at risk of predation when nesting, if kaka are the sole focus of conservation management predator control need only be done in breeding years. However, it is presently only possible to reliably predict breeding years in beech forest. Since kaka are long-lived, once populations have recovered it should also be possible to suspend predator management for several years. This kind of ‘‘pulsed management’’ appears to be a cost-effective way of R. Moorhouse et al. / Biological Conservation 110 (2003) 33–44 conserving a population of kokako (Calleas cinerea; Basse et al., in press). 6.2. Further research Because kaka are not in imminent danger of extinction (there are strong populations on several offshore islands and captive bred birds have been successfully reintroduced to the wild; K. Barlow, personal communication), there is scope for additional research to identify exactly what kinds of predator management are most effective. Apart from determining the minimum area over which predator control operations should be carried out, it is also important to establish if either poison baits or trapping alone might be sufficient to conserve kaka in beech forest. Alternatives to brodifacoum or safer ways of dispensing this toxin should also be investigated. The recent discontinuation of 1080TM and brodifacoum use in the RNRP should help answer these questions. Acknowledgements We thank the New Zealand Department of Conservation’s St Arnaud and Murupara Area Offices, and Pureora and Te Anau field centres, for logistic support. Joe Hayes, Mike North, Jacqueline van Haal, Kirsty Moran, Andy Blick, Karin Ludwig and Keryn Squires assisted with fieldwork. John Bristow, Capral New Zealand Ltd., donated the aluminium used to protect kaka nest-trees. We are grateful to: Graeme Elliott for statistical advice and Graeme Elliott, David Butler, Peter Wilson, Jaqueline Beggs and Kath Walker for valuable discussion on many aspects of this work; Elaine Murphy for identifying predator hairs; Craig Gillies for identifying predator sign on kaka corpses and Chris Edkins for drafting the figures. 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