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Chang, Roberto; Velasco, Andres
Working Paper
Liquidity crises in emerging markets: Theory and
policy
Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, No. 99-15
Provided in Cooperation with:
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Suggested Citation: Chang, Roberto; Velasco, Andres (1999) : Liquidity crises in emerging
markets: Theory and policy, Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, No. 99-15
This Version is available at:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/100729
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Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy
Roberto Chang and Andres Velasco
Working Paper 99-15
October 1999
Working Paper Series
Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy
Roberto Chang and Andres Velasco
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Working Paper 99-15
October 1999
Abstract: We build a model of financial sector illiquidity in an open economy. Illiquidity is defined as
a situation in which a country’s consolidated financial system has potential short-term obligations that
exceed the amount of foreign currency available on short notice. We show that illiquidity is key in the
generation of self-fulfilling bank and/or currency crises. We discuss the policy implications of the model
and study issues associated with capital inflows and the maturity of external debt, the role of real
exchange depreciation, options for financial regulation, fiscal policy, and exchange rate regimes.
JEL classification: F3, E5, G2
Key words: crises, financial systems, exchange rate systems, liquidity
This paper is forthcoming in the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999. The authors thank Philippe Aghion, Abhijit
Banerjee, Ben Bernanke, Dean Corbae, Laura Hastings, Julio Rotemberg, Nouriel Roubini, Aaron Tornell, Chris
Waller, and seminar participants at Harvard, Yale, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Pittsburgh
for useful comments. Velasco acknowledges support from the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at NYU. The
views expressed here are the authors’ and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the
Federal Reserve System. Any remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility.
Please address questions regarding content to Roberto Chang, Research Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,
104 Marietta Street, NW, Atlanta Georgia 30303-2713, 404/521-8057, [email protected]; or Andres Velasco,
Professor of Economics, New York University, 269 Mercer Street, 7th floor, New York, New York 10003, 212/9988958, [email protected].
To receive notification about new papers, please use the publications order form on this Web site, or contact the
Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 104 Marietta Street, NW, Atlanta, Georgia 303032713, 404/521-8020.
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.
Table 1
Short Term Foreign Debt/International Reserves
Jun-90
Jun-94
Jun-97
Indonesia
2.21
1.73
1.70
Korea
1.06
1.61
2.06
Malaysia
0.22
0.25
0.61
Philippines
3.18
0.41
0.85
Thailand
0.59
0.99
1.45
Jun-90
Jun-94
Jun-97
Argentina
2.09
1.33
1.21
Brazil
2.63
0.70
0.79
Chile
0.89
0.51
0.45
Mexico
2.24
1.72
1.19
Peru
3.87
0.38
0.50
Philippines
4.90
4.86
5.86
4.50
Thailand
4.05
3.84
3.69
3.90
Mexico
4.44
12.63
4.37
4.65
Peru
1.91
1.27
1.31
1.24
Source: BIS, IMF
Table 2
M2 as a Multiple of International Reserves
1993
1994
1995
1996
Indonesia
6.09
6.55
7.09
6.50
Korea
6.91
6.45
6.11
6.51
1993
1994
1995
1996
Argentina
3.30
3.73
3.64
3.41
Brazil
1.85
2.30
2.22
2.75
Source: IMF
Malaysia
2.09
2.47
3.33
3.34
Chile
1.73
1.52
1.75
1.91