The 6th Joint Meeting of the UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research
Present situation of monitoring,
prediction and information
for volcanic disaster mitigation in Japan
Koji Aizawa
Division of Volcanology
Department of Seismology and Volcanology
Japan Meteorological Agency
JMA
Today s Contents
Overview of Volcanic Disaster mitigation
Operated by JMA
‹ Example of Recent Response for Volcanic
Disaster by JMA and Local Authorities
‹
JMA
Active Volcanoes in Japan
Definition of
ACTIVE volcanoes :
Volcanoes that erupted in
recent 10,000 years or
have vigorous fumaroles
TOTAL: 108 volcanoes
JMA
Volcanic eruption of last 10 years in Japan
Year 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Meakan-Dake
▲
▲
▲
Tokachi-Dake
▲
Usuzan
▲ ▲
Hokkaido Komagatake ▲
▲
▲
Akita Yakeyama
▲
Asamayama
▲ ▲
Miyakejima
▲ ▲ ▲
▲
Izu-Torishima
Iwo-jima
▲
▲ ▲ ▲
▲
Fukutoku-oka-no-ba
Kuju-san
▲
▲
Asosan
▲ ▲ ▲
Sakurajima
▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Satsuma-Iwo-jima
▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
Suwanose-jima
Moyoro-Dake
▲ ▲
▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲
▲
▲ eruption occurred
JMA
Active Volcanoes in Japan
and Volcano Observations and Information Centers (VOICs)
Area of responsibility
Sapporo VOIC
Sapporo VOIC
Sendai VOIC
Tokyo VOIC
Yoteisan
Niseko
Fukuoka VOIC
Io-Torishima
Nansei Islands
Submarine Volcano
NNE of Iriomotejima
Fukuoka
Taisetsuzan
Ruruidake
Rishirizan Atosanupuri Shiretoko-Iozan
Etorofu-Atosanupuri
Tokachidake
Rausudake
Chirippusan
Usuzan
Hokkaido-Komagatake
Oshima-Oshima
Iwakisan
Hakkodasan
Akita-Yakeyama
Akita-Komagatake
Chokaisan
Bandaisan Hijiori
Numazawa
Hiuchigatake
Myokosan
Mashu
Eniwadake
Maruyama
Esan
Tarumaesan
Osorezan Kuttara
Towada
Sendai
Niigata-Yakeyama
Kusatsu-Shiranesan
Midagahara
VOIC
Yakedake
Akandanayama
Abu Volcanoes
Norikuradake
Sanbesan
Hakusan
Ontakesan
Unzendake
Fukue Volcanoes
Yonemaru and
Sumiyoshiike
Ikeda and Yamagawa
Kaimondake
Satuma-Iojima
Kuchinoerabujima
Kuchinoshima
Nakanoshima
Suwanosejima
Tsurumidake
Yokodake
and Garandake
Yufudake
Fujisan
Kujusan
Hakoneyama
Asosan
Izu-Tobu
Kirishimayama
Volcanoes
Wakamiko
Kozushima
Sakurajima
Mikurajima
Moyorodake
Sashiusudake
Odamoisan
Etorofu-Yakeyama
Berutarubesan
Chachadake
Raususan
Tomariyama
Meakandake
Toshima
Niijima
Miyakejima
Hachimantai
Iwatesan
Kurikomayama
Naruko
Zaozan
Azumayama
Adatarayama
Nasudake
Takaharayama
Nikko-Shiranesan
Akagisan
Harunasan
Asamayama
E140°
VOIC
E144°
Beyonesu Rocks
Sumisujima
Izu-Torishima
Sofugan
N32°
N28°
Nishinoshima
Kaikata Seamount
Kaitoku Seamount
Funka Asane
Izu-Oshima
Iojima
Kita-Fukutokutai
Fukutoku-Okanoba
Minami-Hiyoshi
VOIC
Seamount
Nikko Seamount
N24°
Tokyo
Hachijojima
Aogashima
Izu-Ogasawara Islands
26 volcanoes written with red letters are continuously monitored by JMA.
VOIC
Disaster
Prevention
Authorities,
Mass Media
General Public
Collaborative work with researchers
Meteorological Observatories
Detailed Analysis of
・ Seismic and Geodetic data
・ Volcanic fumes activity
Volcano
Information
Volcanic Regular Bulletin
Diagnosis of
Volcanic Activity
Tiltmeter
24 hours Watch
Real-time
telemeter
Data Analysis
Quick look analysis and watch of data
Issuance of Volcano Information
Dispatch of
Mobile Observation
Team
Mobile Observation Team
Regular survey of volcanoes
Emergency observation of volcanoes
VOIC
GPS
Infrasonic Seismometer
Microphone
High-sensitive
Visual Camera
Volcano Information and
Volcano Information
Volcanic Alert
Volcanic Alert is issued when volcanic activities are
extremely intensified and urgent countermeasures to
prevent/mitigate damage to human lives are required.
Volcanic Advisory
Volcanic Advisory is issued when unusual volcanic
phenomena are observed and preparation for disaster
prevention/mitigation is required.
Volcanic
Observation Report
Volcanic Observation Report is issued as supplemental
information to Volcanic Alert and/or Volcanic Advisory.
Bulletin of Volcanoes
Volcanic Regular Bulletin (Monthly)
Monthly Report on Earthquake and Volcanoes in Japan
Weekly Report on Earthquake and Volcanoes in Japan
JMA
Volcanic Activity Levels by JMA
Volcanic Activity Levels
２ ACTIVE
１ CALM
０ DORMANT
ADV.
３ SMALL ERUPTION, CAUTION
Volcanic Observation Report
４ LARGE-MIDDLE ERUPTION
ALERT
５ VERY LARGE ERUPTION
Dessimination of Volcano Information
Volcano Information
Coordinating Committee of
Prediction of Volcanic Eruption
１９７４∼
Members :
Volcanologists and public offices
Universities
Research Institutes
(NIED, GSJ, PWRI)
Geological Survey Institute
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Cabinet Office
Ministry of Education
Japan Coast Guard
Japan Meteorological Agency
(Secretariat)
Eruption of Asama volcano in 2004
Distribution of continuous observation points at
Asama by JMA as of March 2006
■: Seismometer
◆: Infrasonic microphone,
◎: Seismic intensity meter
☆: Tiltmeter
●: GPS
★: Visual camera.
JMA
Level
5
Volcanic activity
Eruption
Very large eruption or possibility
Pyroclastic flow and/or lava flow Pyroclastic flow and/or lava flow reach to the town
distant from the mountain.
reach to distant area from
the mountain.
4
Large eruption or possibility
Big explosion affects the town.
Volcanic bombs reach to the town (more than 3km
distant from the crater).
Small pyroclastic flow, air shock affects the houses
in the town.
3
Explosive eruption at the
summit crater or possibility
Explosion occurs. or
Precursor of eruption e.g.
Large flux of volcanic gas
Seismic swarm
Glowing etc.
Explosive eruption.
Volcanic bombs reach to the mountain slope (within
3km distant from the crater)
Very small pyroclastic flow
2
Active
Volcano is rather active. e.g.,
Volcanic gas increases
Volcanic earthquakes
Very small eruption might occur occasionally.
1
Calm
Activity of volcanic quakes,
smokes and others is low.
Low possibility of eruption
0
Dormant
No possibility of eruption
The restriction rule of the climbing
mountain according to the level
The rule for off-limits of Asama
Level 0 : No restriction
Level 1 : Off-limits within 500m
from the crater.
Level 2 : Off-limits within about 2
km from the crater.
Level 3 : Off-limits within 4 km
from the crater.
JMA
MLIT(2004)
Volcanic glow before eruption
‹
‹
The photo was taken on 7 August 2004 from Karuizawa Weather
Station about 8km south of the vent.
Volcanic glow was observed only at night by highly sensitive
video camera from 25 July 2004 about 1 month before the
eruption.
JMA
Eruption at 20:02 on 1 September 2004.
• Upper left: Right after the eruption,
light of plume was seen through the
clouds.
• Upper right: After that, volcanic bombs
scattered as far as 2km from the vent.
• Lower: An example of photo taken in
fine weather. Red dotted line shows the
area where volcanic bombs scattered
on 1 September 2004.
Eruption in 2004
300
200
Volcanic quakes
Eruptions
100
0
2003/10/1 2003/12/1 2004/2/1 2004/4/2
5
4
3 Volcanic Activity Level
2
1
0
2003/10/1 2003/12/1 2004/2/1 2004/4/2
50
40
Hourly
30
20
10
0
2004/8/31 0:00
number of quakes
2004/9/1 0:00
LEVEL 2
2004/6/3
2004/8/3
2004/10/4 2004/12/4
2004/6/3
2004/8/3 2004/10/4 2004/12/4
The local governments
forbade entering the area
EXP.
within 4km from the
active crater!
2004/9/2 0:00
LEVEL 3
Observation Report
2004/9/3 0:00
Precursor of eruption at Asama
Tilt change and B type earthquakes before several to 30 hours
Explosions Precursors Predicted
Sep. 1
Sep. 23
Sep. 29
Oct. 10
Nov. 14
○
○
○
×
○
△
×
○
×
○
○
○
−
−
No Explosion
Oct. 6
Feb. 21-22
JMA
22
23
24
25 September 2004
Ground deformation and volcano information
9月 27日
9月 28日
9月 29日
Erup
tion
S-up,W-up
0.2μrad
9月 30日
On 29 September
At 00:43 volcano info.
Volcano information
Volcano information
At 08:15 volcano info.
At 12:17 eruption
Hourly frequencies of BH
type volcanic earthquakes
JMA
9月 27日
9月 28日
9月 29日
9月 30日
Summary
There are difficulties to exactly
predict volcanic eruption on present
technical level.
But, at volcano where monitoring system
is operating, some eruptions rarely occur
completely without precursors, so we
can issue Volcano information before
eruption in some case.
For volcanic disaster mitigation, it is important to operate volcanic
monitoring system and issue adequate information to the public.
JMA
ありがとうございました。
Thank you!
Official mascots of JMA
Hare-run