The Southern Megalopolis and
the Challenge to Conservation in
the 21st Century
Adam Terando, Ph.D.
US Geological Survey
Southeast Climate Science Center
Department of Interior
Climate Science Center Network
Producing actionable science that helps individuals and
organizations understand and adapt to global change.
The “outher
Megalopolis
CLIMATE + CARS + TASTE
New York Times
Private automobile facilitates segregation
of uses and viability of large distances
Movement away from grid network
for over 100 years
Chicago
9,912,730
MORE
CONNECTED
LESS
CONNECTED
Large pre-auto core. Preference for high connectivity
suburban development
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Chicago
9,912,730
Large pre-auto core. Preference for
high connectivity suburban development
Boston
8,041,303
MORE
CONNECTED
LESS
CONNECTED
Large pre-auto core and suburbs. Mix of high and low
connectivity suburban development.
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Chicago
Atlanta
9,912,730
6,162,195
Large pre-auto core. Preference for
high connectivity suburban development
Boston
8,041,303
MORE
CONNECTED
LESS
CONNECTED
Large pre-auto core and suburbs. Mix of
high and low connectivity suburban development.
Small pre-auto core. Preference for low connectivity
suburban development.
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Chicago
9,912,730
Boston
8,041,303
LESS
CONNECTED
Large pre-auto core. Preference for
high connectivity suburban development
Atlanta
6,162,195
MORE
CONNECTED
Large pre-auto core and suburbs. Mix of
high and low connectivity suburban development.
Small pre-auto core. Preference
for low connectivity suburban development.
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015),
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
US DOT
Low density
development but
large spatial extent
US DOT
US DOT
Using the USGS SLEUTH model to simulate sprawl
and inform conservation decision-making
SLEUTH – Li i g ope -source urban-growth model.
SLEUTH IS A CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL
WIKIMEDIA
Growth dependent on rules and transition
pro a ilities….intera tion with neigh ors
Spontaneous Growth
Spreading Growth
FOUR TYPES
URBAN GROWTH PATTERNS
Edge Growth
Road Growth
Spontaneous Growth
Spreading Growth
Edge Growth
Road Growth
WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE
SIMULATING?
1993
WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?
2010
Simulating spread of road density => Urban
Sprawl
Proceed with
calibration and
prediction for
county-based subregions
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2060 Projection
95th percentile (Red)
For 2010 – 2060, projected
increase is 101% – 192%
in urban extent
Piedmont
Megalopolis
LESS SO IN
SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS
Large-scale habitat loss
Much more fragmented landscape
Piedmont, Mountains, and Coast
Calculate Distance
52% of Total
50 KM
86% of Total
100 KM
The “outher
Megalopolis
So what does this mean
for conservation?
Big Lands
Big Money
Big Government
South Atlantic
Landscape Conservation Cooperative
Climate Change: One more big
consideration
Difficult to Create Conservation
Corridors for Climate Change
Adaptation
Classic suburban development is a primary
contributor to greenhouse gas emissions
Washington Post
IS OUR STUDY ALREADY OUT
OF DATE?
Ne e ide ce suggesti g e e already
reached peak spra l
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
More connectivity in new development
since mid 90s
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Preferred urban development pattern is
slowly changing
Barrington-Leigh and Millard-Ball (2015), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Our development patterns are
intrinsically linked to the two biggest
challenges to conservation today
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
May need much stronger links to
urban planning community for
conservation actions to be effective
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Alignment of conservation objectives
and changing development
prefere ces ay facilitate ore i i opportu ities
The Southern Megalopolis is a
choice, not our destiny.