Holocene Special Issue
Climatic, vegetation and cultural
change in the eastern Mediterranean
during the mid-Holocene
environmental transition
The Holocene
21(1) 147­–162
© The Author(s) 2011
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DOI: 10.1177/0959683610386819
http://hol.sagepub.com
Neil Roberts,1 Warren J. Eastwood,2 Catherine Kuzucuoǧlu,3
Girolamo Fiorentino4 and Valentina Caracuta4
Abstract
The eastern Mediterranean region witnessed changes in human culture of the highest importance between ~9000 and ~2500 cal. BP (7000–500 bc)
and over the same time period was affected by very significant shifts in climate. Stable isotope data from lake and deep-sea sediment cores and from
cave speleothems show an overall trend from a wetter to a drier climate during the mid Holocene. Superimposed on this trend were multicentennial
oscillations in climate, with notable arid phases occurring around 5300–5000 BP, 4500–3900 BP, and 3100–2800 BP (all ages are expressed in calibrated/
calendar years). T
hese phases coincide with major archaeological transitions across the eastern Mediterranean region (Chalcolithic to early Bronze
Age, EBA to MBA, and LBA to Iron Age) implying that environmental stress or opportunity may have acted as a pacemaker for cultural change and reorganisation. We use 14C and δ13C analysis of archaeobotanical samples from two protohistoric sites in Syria to illustrate the linkage between water
availability, climate and cultural change during the third and second millennia bc. Specific societal responses to environmental change were not predictable
in advance, but resulted instead from contingent processes involving antecedent conditions, human choice and adaptive strategies. Pollen analysis highlights
how changes in climate were coupled to increasing human impacts to transform the region’s landscapes. Initial human-induced land-cover transformation
commonly took place during Bronze Age times, sometimes coinciding with phases of drier climate, although the pattern and precise timing varied between
sites. Changes in climate between the early and late Holocene thus helped to transform eastern Mediterranean landscape ecologies and human cultures,
but in complex, non-deterministic ways.
Keywords
archaeology, climate change, east Mediterranean, multiproxy, pollen analysis, stable isotope analysis
Introduction
The east Mediterranean region provided the cradle for some of the
world’s oldest and most important civilisations between ~9000
and ~2500 cal. BP (9.0 to 2.5 ka BP). During the same time period,
the east Mediterranean was affected by very significant shifts in
climate, both internal and external to the region. These climatic
changes, coupled to increasing human impacts on the environment, transformed the region’s landscapes, in ways that are often
hard to disentangle. In this paper, we review evidence of how the
region’s climate changed between the early and late Holocene, and
examine how this affected natural vegetation and human cultures.
Our data sources for past climate come primarily from lake and
deepwater marine sediments and from cave speleothems. Changes
in human settlement and socio-economic complexity are provided
by the results of archaeological excavation and site survey. From
the Bronze Age onwards, these are complemented by historical
documents uncovered during excavation of sites such as Ebla. The
history of the region’s vegetation and landscape ecology is derived
primarily from pollen analysis of sediment cores, along with
archaeological wood charcoals and other plant fragments. In this
paper, we evaluate pollen and plant macrofossil data as response
variables; that is, as an outcome of climate changes, ecological
processes and human activity. Correlation between pollen and
isotope records is made easier by the fact that many of them derive
from common lake or marine sediment core archives – the socalled multiproxy approach – which we use here to compare climate and vegetation/land-use proxies directly. Additionally, we
present stable isotope analysis of plant remains from Bronze Age
archaeological sites as a case study to illustrate how archaeological and palaeoclimatic data can also be obtained from a common
‘archive’. The region covered in this paper includes those lands
bordering the eastern Mediterranean Sea but extends eastwards
into those areas of the Middle East which today also have a characteristically summer-dry Mediterranean-type climate (Figure 1).
1
University of Plymouth, UK
University of Birmingham, UK
3
Paris 1 University-CNRS/INEE, France
4
University of Salento-Lecce, Italy
2
Received16 June 2010; revised manuscript accepted 15 September 2010
Corresponding author:
Neil Roberts, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences,
University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
Email: [email protected]
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The Holocene 21(1)
Figure 1. Map of eastern Mediterranean study region and sites discussed in the text
Climatic archives: 9000 to ~2500
cal. BP
East Mediterranean records of climatic change between the early
and late Holocene derive from a wide range of data sources. Here
we focus on three principal natural archives whose records can be
unambiguously attributed to climatic forcing, which are replicated and which have been quantified in terms of climatic parameters, namely lake sediment records, cave speleothems and
deep-sea sediment cores. These three archives can be linked via
stable isotope analysis (Roberts et al., 2010).
Lake palaeohydrology
East Mediterranean lakes respond sensitively to climate via their
water balance, which in turn is reflected in their water level, salinity and stable isotope composition. Many of these lake basins
show highstands of Late Pleistocene age from shoreline deposits
and landforms (e.g. Fontugne et al., 1999; Karabıyıkoğlu et al.,
1999; Stein, 2001). On the other hand, and in contrast to the
Saharan-Arabian arid zone and to East Africa, marginal lake highstand facies of Holocene age are relatively uncommon in the east
Mediterranean. The best direct evidence of postglacial lake-level
fluctuations derives from the Dead Sea, with a sequence of welldated palaeoshorelines for the last ~3 ka (Bookman et al., 2004).
There is also evidence of fluctuating Dead Sea water levels during
the early–mid Holocene, for example from 14C dated timbers in
salt-diapir caves (Frumkin et al., 1991). Based on a combination
of lake cores and shoreline features from around the Dead Sea,
Migowski et al. (2006) inferred high water levels between 10 and
8 ka BP and again from 5 to 3.4 ka, with notable abrupt falls in
lake level occurring around 7.7, 4.2 and 3.3 ka. Lake-level fluctuations can also be reconstructed from lithofacies and salinity
changes in cores alone; for example, the Eski Acıgöl crater in central Anatolia contains laminated lake sediments and freshwater
diatoms during the early Holocene, indicating deepwater conditions (Roberts et al., 2001). After 6.5 ka BP, varves disappear
while salt-tolerant diatoms and ostracods predominate, indicating
that the lake level fell.
More widely available, and therefore more useful for a
regional-scale comparative analysis, are stable isotope data from
carbonates in east Mediterranean lake sediment cores. As part of
the ISOMED synthesis, Roberts et al. (2008) compared individual
site records on a common calendar year timescale. These show an
overall regional trend to more positive δ18O values between 9 and
3 ka BP. Although lake isotope values are the product of a number
of factors, including temperature, seasonality, air mass source and
trajectory, the predominant control has been water balance, with
more negative δ18O values indicating periods of greater moisture
availability (Jones and Roberts, 2008). Direct comparison
between individual lake isotope records is hindered by differences in the δ18O composition of incoming precipitation resulting
from elevation and continentality effects. In order to overcome
this and other site-specific factors, we have statistically transformed the isotopic records of six lakes spanning the period since
9 ka BP as standardised normal values (i.e. mean/1 SD). These
lakes extend from Ioannina in the west to Mirabad in the east
(Figure 1), and have a mean sampling resolution between 85 and
252 years (Table 1), making it possible to identify multicentennial
but not multidecadal trends. In addition, a ‘stacked’ lake isotope
record has been generated based on the number of sites lying
above or below the mean (i.e. zero) value over time.
As Figure 2 shows, multicentennial wet–dry oscillations were
superimposed on the overall mid-Holocene δ18O trend from more
negative to more positive lake isotope values. The precise age of
these oscillations varies slightly between sequences, but
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149
Roberts et al.
Table 1. Details of the lake sites analysed for pollen and stable isotopes used in Figures 2, 5 and 6
Site name
Elevation
Country
(m a.m.s.l.)
‘Natural’ vegetation
Mean sample
interval, last
9 ka
Timing of AP
References
maximum and first
forest clearance (ka BP)
Southwest Iran
Open oak woodland
252 yr
6.0– 4.4
4.4?– 3.8? (EBA/MBA)
6.9–6.3
2.9?– 2.3? (Iron Age)
7.0–4.5
4.5– 2.6 (Bronze Age)
5.5– 5.0
4.7– 3.1 (Bronze Age)
6.0–3.8
3.3–2.5 (LBA–Iron Age)
9.0–3.5
3.3–2.9 (LBA–Iron Age)
9.0–5.7
5.2–4.3 (EBA)
Mirabad
800
Zeribar
1300
Western Iran
Open oak woodland
176 yr
Van
1650
Southeast Turkey
Steppe/oak woodland
116 yr
Eski Acıgöl
1270
Central Turkey
Open oak-grass parkland
85 yr
930
Southwest Turkey
Pine-juniper forest
98 yr
1300
Northwest Turkey
Fir-pine forest
Gölhisar
Abant
Ioannina (Pamvotis)
470
Northwest Greece Mixed oak Forest
the general pattern is similar across the records, implying that
inter-site differences are probably due to chronological imprecision. The stacked record shows that all six lakes had δ18O values
more negative than their mean prior to 7.9 ka BP, indicating maximum wetness at this time. By 6.6 ka BP several lakes showed a
shift to more positive values, although three (Gölhisar, Mirabad
and Ioannina) returned to lower δ18O values and wetter conditions
around 6 ka BP. Between 6 and 3 ka BP, lake isotope data indicate
a series of downward trending wet-to-dry oscillations, with greatest aridity around 5.3 to 5.0 ka BP, 4.5 to 4.0 ka BP and 3.1 to 2.8
ka BP. These were interspersed with phases of greater moisture
availability, particularly 4.0 to 3.3 ka BP, when all lake records
indicate a reversal of the overall mid-Holocene drying trend.
Cave carbonates
Cave carbonates such as stalagmites and flowstones typically
build up slowly over many millennia, and can represent welldated palaeoclimate archives. The most important cave speleothem records in the east Mediterranean region derive from the
Levant, but studies have also been undertaken in Turkey, western
Iran and Oman (e.g. Fleitmann et al., 2007; Frisia et al., 2008;
Jex et al., 2010). Cave carbonates have been analysed for a wide
range of climate-sensitive parameters, including growth rate,
δ13C, etc. Figure 2 shows Holocene δ18O data from the wellknown Soreq Cave record in Israel (Bar-Matthews et al., 1997).
As with the lake isotope data, speleothem isotopes are presented
here as standardised normal values to facilitate comparison. Like
other Levantine caves (e.g. Jeita Cave in the Lebanon; Verheyden et al., 2008; West Jerusalem cave; Frumkin et al., 2000) and
paludal carbonates (Yammoûneh, Lebanon; Develle et al., 2010)
they show a coherent trend with more negative δ18O values during the early Holocene and a transition to more positive isotopes
between ~8.5 and ~5 ka BP. They also show submillennial isotope variations that correlate well with those from the stacked
lake isotope record.
While speleothem sample resolution for most of the Holocene
is similar to that for lake isotope sequences, the Soreq Cave record
includes periods of significantly high time-resolution, notably
between 7 and 3.5 ka BP when the mean sampling interval falls to
between 3 and 20 years (see Bar-Matthews et al., 2011, this issue).
For this mid-Holocene interval it is therefore possible to recognise
210 yr
146 yr
Stevens et al. (2006)
Van Zeist and Bottema (1977)
Stevens et al. (2001)
Wick et al. (2003)
Woldring and Bottema (2003)
Roberts et al. (2001)
Eastwood et al. (1999)
Eastwood et al. (2007)
Bottema et al. (1993/1994)
Frogley et al. (2001)
Lawson et al. (2004)
multidecadal as well as multicentennial climate variations. The
period between 5.5 and 4.8 ka BP at Soreq, for example, emerges
not as a single interval of drier climate, but comprises three
intense wet–dry oscillations, each lasting between 150 and 250
years. With higher analytical sampling and better chronological
resolution, it is likely that similar multidecadal oscillations will be
identified in other palaeeoclimate records.
Marine cores
Marine cores from the Levantine, Ionian and Aegean Sea basins
below ~300 m water depth show the presence of the organic-rich
S1 sapropel layer dating to between 10.8±0.4 ka BP and 6.1±0.5
ka BP (Calvert and Fontugne, 2001; de Lange et al., 2008;
Rohling et al., 2009). Although increased Nile discharge was one
cause of the partial marine anoxia which led to sapropel deposition, Fontugne et al. (1994) showed that additional sources of
increased freshwater input also contributed to stratification,
potentially including North African wadi systems and higher precipitation influx over the east Mediterranean Sea itself. This
would be consistent with palaeoclimate reconstructions from
speleothems and lakes for a regional early-Holocene increase in
rainfall. During sapropel formation, sea-surface temperatures
(SST) in the Levantine and Ionian basins were significantly
cooler than later in the Holocene, based on alkenone unsaturation
ratios (Emeis et al., 2000; Essallami et al., 2007). Rohling et al.
(2002) also identified SST cooling episodes from declines in the
abundance of warm-water foraminifera in Aegean core LVC21,
around 8.6–8.0, 6.3–5.5 and 3.3–2.6 ka BP, which they attribute
to more frequent or intense outbreaks of northerly polar/continental air during winter. Within the later Holocene, Schilman
et al. (2001) used δ18O values of Globigerinoides ruber at a high
sediment accumulation rate site off the southern Levantine coast
to infer a humid phase between 3.5 and 3.0 ka BP followed by
climatic desiccation. As with all Mediterranean marine core
records, their chronology assumed that the modern 400-year correction for 14C dates also applied in the past. Marine cores can
also provide an index of continental aridity by examining the
flux of aeolian dust from adjacent dryland regions, particularly
the Sahara. Box et al. (2008) used using Sr isotope ratios from
marine core 9501 from the north Levantine basin to show a
marked decrease in dust export during the early Holocene,
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The Holocene 21(1)
Figure 2. Standardised normal δ18O records for six East Mediterranean lakes (3 pt running mean) and for Soreq Cave (Bar-Matthews et al.,
1997), along with a stacked lake isotope record for the last 9 ka. For Lake Van the chronology of Litt et al. (2009) is used. Phases of inferred
wetter and drier climate during the mid-Holocene transition are highlighted
followed by a return to dustier conditions between ~7.5 and ~4.2
ka BP, with a brief reversal ~6.0 ka BP.
Climatic calibration
Some palaeoclimatic proxy records have been calibrated against
hydrometeorological data so that they can be transformed into
quantitative estimates of past climate. For example, by monitoring
modern cave drip-water δ18O values, Bar-Matthews et al. (1998)
were able to show a statistical relationship with annual precipitation at Soreq Cave. On this basis, they calculated that precipitation
varied from below 400 to above 600 mm/yr during the last 7 ka,
assuming temperature ranges between 18 and 20°C. A comparable
estimate of Holocene precipitation change was obtained by Jones
et al. (2007) from isotope mass balancing of δ18O data from Eski
Acıgöl crater lake sediments in central Turkey.
Much interest in past climate change has focused on abrupt
events, especially those associated with inferred drought conditions, such as at 8.2 and 4.2 ka BP. The 8.2 ka event is clearly
marked at both high and low latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere
(Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005), the latter associated with a suppression of the monsoon system linked to cooler SSTs. This event
is recorded in a fall in African lake levels, probably including the
northeast Saharan region (Hoelzmann et al., 2010), and in river
Nile discharge. A sharp decline in the Nile flood may be partly
responsible for a brief interruption to carbon-rich sedimentation
within some eastern Mediterranean S1 sapropel layers. Evidence
for the 8.2 ka event in non-marine climate records from the region
is more ambivalent. To some extent, this may be an artefact of
sampling resolution, since the 8.2 ka event is calculated from the
Greenland ice core chronology to have had a duration of no more
than 160 years (Thomas et al., 2007), so that this event may have
been ‘missed’ in most lake, marine and speleothem records. The
4.2 ka dry event has also received much attention in the eastern
Mediterranean region (Dalfes et al., 1997), partly because it is
proposed to link it to the collapse of the Akkadian Empire (see
below). In a marine core record from the Gulf of Oman, Cullen
et al. (2000) identifed a sharp peak in dolomite dust at this time.
Because this site lies directly downwind of Mesopotamian dust
source areas, they inferred a very abrupt increase in aeolian dust
and aridity in the Near Eastern region.
The role of climate in cultural
change: 9000 to 2500 cal. BP
How did these significant multicentennial and multimillennial
shifts in climate impact upon developments in human culture in
the eastern Mediterranean? Discussion about how global climate
events influenced multiregional political/economic crises during
the Bronze Age has been based on synchronisms between shortduration cultural and climatic ‘events’ across the eastern Mediterranean region during the time period between ~5.5 and ~3 ka BP.
However, establishing the timescale necessary for evidencing any
synchronism between both types of event is difficult with a better
than 80–100 yr uncertainty.
Calendar chronological tie-lines between each phase and
period of the Bronze Age in the Near East are provided by rather
rare ancient texts written by the services administrating a few centralized States in the region (mainly in Mesopotamia). In this chronology, some periods are still floating because of the unknown
duration of the intermediate periods separating early Bronze Age
(EBA) from MBA around 4 ka BP, and MBA from LBA around
3.6 ka BP (Gasche, 1998). Because of this limited text-based dating of the cultural transition periods, the assignment of calendar
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151
Roberts et al.
Figure 3. Chronological chart showing archaeological periods in different regions of the eastern Mediterranean from the sixth to first millennia
bc (9 to 2 ka BP), along with key climatic trends
dates for the Bronze Age cultures previous to the mid-second millennium bc in the Near East involves a 50–150 yr uncertainty.
In excavated sites, chronologies are usually based on the succession of archaeological assemblages which provides a chronological labelling (e.g. EBA I to IV; MBA I and MBA II, etc.). The
absolute chronology of these assemblages makes use both of 14C
dates on charcoals or other organic remains collected on-site, and
of correspondences with cultural materials dated elsewhere by
association with ancient texts. It is a noteworthy fact that radiocarbon dates performed on excavated material (i.e. framed by a
stratigraphy-based chronology of archaeological assemblages)
often run one or two centuries earlier than the dates expected by
archaeologists, without any certainty as to which group is right
(Hasel, 2004). This is well-illustrated by debates concerning the
MBA eruption of Thera (Santorini), with tree-ring calibrated 14C
ages indicating a date between 1660 and 1600 bc (~3.6 ka BP)
whereas archaeological chronologies place this event as around
one century younger (see Zanchetta et al., 2011, this issue). Consequently, because of either regional cultural specificities and
time-lags, or of the disagreement of 14C dates with ages expected
from archaeological chronologies, the cultural successions
revealed in excavations often present different sets of dates for
BA archaeological phases, even for adjacent regions.
It is generally admitted that historical dates present a time
range that is more precise than the one attached to calibrated 14C
ages as used for dating most palaeoclimatic sequences, especially
during the 14C plateau periods. Synchronism between centennialscale or shorter signals (archaeological and climatic) is thus difficult to demonstrate, and there is a real danger that events of
different age can become wrongly correlated (Baillie, 1991). In
these conditions, the discussion about the causes, modalities,
duration and time–space distribution of the major changes over
the region cannot be based solely on evidence of synchronism
(c.f. Weninger et al., 2009). The rapidity, magnitude and cultural
significance of these changes are not simple factors, especially
when comparing regions. In short, any research about timecorrespondences between climatic events and cultural changes,
and about climate as a possible cause of rapid economic and social
disorder, should remain careful.
Consequences of climate change for cultural evolution
Prior to ~4000 bc (~6 ka BP) in the eastern Mediterranean, the
development of Neolithic and Chalcolithic agriculture accompanied and benefited from higher levels of humidity, both in terms
of climate and water resources. After this time, palaeoclimatic
sequences record a three millennia long transition between the
humid early Holocene and the drier late Holocene (Figures 2 and 3).
This transition seems to have occurred in three main steps, each
ending in periods of drier climate around 3300 to 3000 bc
(5.3–5.0 ka BP), 2500 to 1950 bc (4.5–3.9 ka BP), and from 1200
to 850 bc (3.2–2.8 ka BP). Each of these dry phases comprised
several drought episodes interspersed with years of wetter climate
(Kuzucuoğlu, 2009).
The mid-Holocene climatic degradation was initiated by a
depletion in humidity during the fourth millennium bc which
included a strong but rather short-lived drought peak occurring
around 5.2–5.1 ka, especially evident in the Soreq Cave isotope
record. This is paralleled by an ice-rafted-debris (IRD) peak signalling a cold phase in the Northern Hemisphere (IRD Peak 4 of
Bond et al., 1997, 2001; see Bar-Matthews et al., 2011, this issue:
figure 4b). The fourth millennium bc drying trend, recorded
everywhere in the eastern Mediterranean region, is paralleled in
the archaeological record by the late-Chalcolithic transition and
earliest EBA cultures. However, rather than having a ‘negative’
effect, this synchronism would point – if anything – to a ‘positive’
relationship, since these dates correspond to the start of EBA city
states around 5.3–5.0 ka BP associated with flourishing urbanization, irrigation, crop agriculture, metal skills and trade. The relationship between environmental stimulus and cultural change is
clearest in Egypt, where previously dispersed cattle cultures were
faced with a range of alternative choices in the face of fourth millennium bc climatic desiccation. The alternatives included migration southwards into sub-Saharan lands, the adoption of desert
nomadism, or nucleation and agricultural intensification within
the Nile valley (Kuper and Kröpelin, 2006). In reality all three
strategies were adopted, but by different groups, with the last of
them providing the foundation of Dynastic Egypt, whose economy, society and belief-system then became intimately tied to the
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The Holocene 21(1)
seasonal Nile flood (Butzer, 1976). Elsewhere in the Near East,
the centralization of power in emerging States may also have been
a response to the necessity of having to protect growing EBA
societies from the possible re-occurrence of similar climatically
induced instability and risk.
The short drought near the end of the fourth millennium bc
was followed by several centuries that were generally more
humid. After about 4.8 ka BP, a continuous drying trend is featured in the Soreq Cave record, although humidity remained high
in other regions (e.g. Van). From ~2450 bc (~4.4 ka BP) onwards,
the climate was characterised by high frequency and high amplitude dry/wet fluctuations. During this time, contemporaneous
EBA civilizations were characterized by prosperity that benefited
all areas from the Aegean to Mesopotamia. After ~2250 bc (4.2 ka
BP) Bronze Age cultures experienced a series of crises culminating in a period of contraction or collapse at 2200–2000 bc which
was more or less synchronous with a strong climatic signal. In
reality, events around 4.2 ka BP formed part of a longer-term
trend, with proxy climate records suggesting that aridification
started around 4.4 ka BP (Kuzucuoğlu and Marro, 2007).
In interior areas of the Fertile Crescent, there was a decrease in
humidity and an increase in interannual climatic instability. These
shortened the spring crop-growing period or randomized the rainfall distribution, and dry farming of cereals became uncertain.
This is recorded in archaeobotanical remains and inferred agricultural strategies from Upper Mesopotamian sites during the second
half of the third millennium bc (Collective, 2007; McCorriston,
1998; Riehl et al., 2008). At the same time, the occurrence of
intense and catastrophic rains, together with vegetation changes
on the slopes and land-use intensification, provoked fluctuations
in river discharge, lowering water-tables in valleys and promoting
soil erosion. In semi-arid regions (receiving 200–350 mm/yr rainfall) river discharge became erratic and perennial floods declined
(Cordova, 2007; Courty, 1994; Rosen, 1997; Wilkinson, 1999), a
trend exacerbated by increased water withdrawal in irrigated
areas. In more humid highland regions, such as eastern Anatolia
and the Zagros, precipitation decrease was not at first sufficient to
have a major impact on vegetation (Wick et al., 2003). Thus, large
river valleys such as the Euphrates, the Tigris, and their tributaries, were not impacted as much as the semi-arid regions they were
crossing until the end of the third millennium bc, because of sustained flood water discharges (Kuzucuoğlu, 2007).
Around 2200–2000 bc (4.2–4.0 ka BP) urban cultures contracted, indicating a sharp decrease in population or a complete
change in its distribution, as well as a major change in socioeconomic activities for some territories. This collapse period has
been subject to a lively debate as to the possible role of climate in
determining the demise of EBA civilisations (e.g. Algaze and
Pournelle, 2003; Cullen et al., 2000; Dalfes et al., 1997; DeMenocal, 2001; Kuzucuoğlu and Marro, 2007; Schwartz, 2007; Weiss
et al., 1993). Given this debate, we spend a little time here critically reviewing the evidence for the apparent failure of EBA societies to cope with climate change at this time.
The political disorder and social crises which afflicted centralized political systems at the end of the EBA occurred at different
dates from region to region, between c. 2300 bc and 1900 bc
(~4.3–3.9 ka BP; Marro and Kuzucuoğlu, 2007). Within the limits
of chronological uncertainty discussed above, this timing appears
to correspond to repeated droughts occurring c. 2250 (4.2 ka BP),
2100 (~4.1 ka BP) and 1950 bc (3.9 ka BP; Kuzucuoğlu, 2007,
2009). There was also failure of the Nile floods at this
time (Stanley et al., 2003), matching a politically unstable phase
corresponding to the First Intermediate Period in Ancient Egypt.
As the Nile flood originates in the Ethiopian Highlands, it implies
suppression of the Indian Ocean monsoon system, and indicates
that atmospheric circulation must have been perturbed not only
within the Mediterranean basin (e.g. Drysdale et al., 2006), but
well beyond it (e.g. Thompson et al., 2002). On the other hand,
and in contrast to the 8.2 ka BP climate event, there is no generally accepted causal mechanism for a climate perturbation at 4.2
ka BP.
In the Levant, collapse between EBA III and IV occurred c.
2300 bc in relation to internal environmental and economic issues
(Rosen, 1995). In Upper Mesopotamia where the first Mesopotamian Empire (Akkad) was founded c. 2350 bc, the political, urban
and economic collapse of the Empire c. 2200 bc impacted in turn
its neighbouring territories (Weiss et al., 1993). In some of these
areas, the high level of political and economic centralization
established by the Akkad Empire through specialized agricultural
production accorded via carrying capacities, had kept the cities
and their rulers from adapting to changes in resources. On the
other hand, in more or less independent areas, collapse did not
occur, since the economy and social organization could adapt, at
low cost, to changing environmental conditions generated by
rainfall depletion and drought (Collective, 2007; Marro, 2009;
Rosen, 2007). Thus some EBA cities in northern Syria and the
mid-Euphrates valley (el-Rawda, Birecik, Ebla, Mari etc. – see
maps in Kuzucuoğlu and Marro, 2007), went on flourishing during this crisis.
The crises that brought about the end of EBA cultures in the
Near East occurred one after another during a 200–300 yr timespan. This succession of crises can be explained by a suite of ruptures determined by the economic links between disordered
regions and by the sensitivities of different regions to climate
change. These ruptures occurred only when local political systems failed to decide or implement the changes necessary for
adapting to changing conditions, both climatic and cultural
(Rosen, 2007). The environmental consequences of climatic drying occurred earlier (2250–2200 bc; ~4.2 ka BP) and had greater
impact in semi-arid and continental regions with rainfall today
between 200 and 350 mm/yr (upper Mesopotamia, interior
Levant, central Anatolia, etc.), and only later (2050 and 1900 bc;
4.0–3.9 ka BP) in more humid areas (coastal Levant, Taurus
mountains, etc.). The environmental consequences of climate
change during the later second millennium bc therefore varied
from region to region, according to the degree of sensitivity of the
impacted areas to precipitation decrease.
During the early part of the second millennium bc, the climate
became wetter (Figure 2), although humidity levels indicated by
the δ18O records remained significantly lower than earlier in the
Holocene. During this period, a drier episode occurred 1700–
1650 bc (~3.6 ka BP; see below). In spite of this relatively dry
episode, the second millennium bc MBA and LBA societies faced
the climatic challenge and developed successfully until 1200–
1100 bc (~3.1 ka BP) when there was once again widespread cultural collapse across the eastern Mediterranean. This collapse
affected the LBA palace economies of the Greek mainland
(Mycenaean), the Aegean Islands (post-palatial Minoan, Cycladic
LBA), and soon afterwards, a disruption occurred in Egypt (third
Intermediate period), the Levant and Mesopotamia. After the collapse, fragmented territories slowly recovered during the following centuries, a historic period labelled ‘Dark Ages’ in the history
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Roberts et al.
of Greece and Anatolia, during which local Iron Age chieftains
and small kingdoms took over the control and management of
the land and resources. In a repetition of what had happened a
millennium earlier, restructuring of societies eventually led to
the renewal of centralised, increasingly powerful States, such as
the Babylonian, Assyrian, and Achaemenid Empires. Although the
immediate cause of the LBA ‘collapse’ at the end of the second
millennium bc is linked to the invasion of the ‘Sea Peoples’, this
also coincided with a period of climatic aridity. Drought episodes
at the end of the second millennium bc are recorded in the δ18O
records from several lakes (Eski Acıgöl, Zeribar, etc.), Mediterranean marine cores (Emeis et al., 2000; Schilman et al., 2001)
and Jeita cave speleothems in the Lebanon (Verheyden et al.,
2008). At the same time water levels declined in the Dead Sea
(Migowski et al., 2006) and Tecer Lake in central Anatolia
(Kuzucuoğlu et al., 2011, this issue), while river dynamics
changed dramatically in the Middle Euphrates valley between
LBA and Iron Age occupations (Kuzucuoğlu et al., 2004).
Carbon isotope analysis of
archaeological plant remains:
A case study from Bronze Age Syria
One way of linking changes in climate, vegetation and human
activities is via the study of charred plants recovered in archaeological sites, which provide information on the relationship between
natural resources and the human adaptive strategies employed to
cope with changes in climate (Fiorentino and Primavera, 2010).
Studies have focused especially on variations in woodland, where
climate change usually leads to modification in plant cover (Deckers,
2005; Pessin, 2007; Willcox, 1999). In term of palaeoclimatic
investigation, this has recently been associated with the study of
δ13C in plants, because the carbon pathway during photosynthesis
is known to be influenced by environmental parameters (Ehleringer
et al., 1993; Schleser et al., 1999). As far as semi-arid areas are
concerned, δ13Cplant has been found to be closely related to water
availability, as this is the key climatic determinant for the growth
and survival of plants (Ferrio et al., 2005).
Several analyses have been carried out in the east Mediterranean in order to distinguish natural from human-controlled water
input received by plants. Cereals are usually preferred to other
kinds of plant remains, because carbon isotope discrimination
analysis (Δ13C) by IRMS shows the water was received during
grain filling. Variations in this parameter have been studied in the
Khabur basin and Euphrates valley, where they are believed to
reflect changes in growing conditions resulting from both agricultural practices (e.g. irrigation) and palaeoclimatic fluctuations
(Araus et al., 1997, 1999; Riehl et al., 2008). Despite the great
number of studies focusing on this topic, the general outline is far
from straightforward. This is because re-establishing climate signals from the isotope values of biological materials requires
detailed knowledge of the regional ecosystem’s response behaviour. In addition, the lack of a clear chronology in archaeological
contexts (as discussed above) makes it hard to identify centuryscale climate changes and does not allow a full understanding of
human responses.
In Syria, Fiorentino and Caracuta (2007a) tested the δ13Cplant
variation in water input by sampling the plant community along a
rainfall gradient. In total, 191 plant specimens (all C3 plants)
were collected from 12 sites situated between 34° and 42°
longitude and between 0 and 2000 m above sea level. As well as
cereals, trees and shrubs and long- and short-lived plants were
sampled in order to get the mean carbon stable isotope value of a
representative selection of plant taxa growing in the same ecological context. The mean δ13C of plant communities was found
to decrease significantly from −25.1‰ (±1.9 SD) at 145 mm to
−28.1‰ (±1.9 SD ) at 820 mm, with a regression value of r2=0.80.
Once the isotopic response of plants to the main regional
climate-forcing parameter had thus been modelled, 36 ancient
samples collected in Ebla and Qatna, two proto-historic sites in
northwestern Syria, were analysed to determine palaeoclimatic
trends. The AMS technique was used in preference to IRMS
because it makes it possible to infer the δ13C and 14C values of the
same samples. The accuracy levels of the δ13C measurements
ranged from 0.1‰ to 1‰, making it a reliable parameter, while
the range of uncertainty in the 14C measurements was reduced as
far as possible.
The samples covered a time period of 1500 years (Table 2),
from the end of the fourth millennium to the beginning of the second millennium bc, which was found to be characterized by at
least three phases of reduced rainfall at 3100–2900 bc (~5.0–4.8 ka
BP), 2200–2050 bc (4.2–4.0 ka BP) and 1800–1650 bc (3.7–3.6 ka
BP) and at least two wetter phases at 2500–2350 bc (4.5–4.3
ka BP) and 1600–1500 bc (~3.5 ka BP), together with a single
sample possibly indicating an isolated drought event in 2600 bc
(~4.6 ka BP). Between 2050 and 1800 BC (4.0–3.75 ka BP) there
was another ‘rainy period’ which may be considered wetter only
if compared to the centuries which preceded and followed it
(Fiorentino and Caracuta, 2007b; Fiorentino et al., 2008) (Figure 4).
This pattern of multicentennial oscillations between wetter and drier
can be compared with that identified in lake and cave isotope
records (Figure 2).
Examining the relationship between the climate changes highlighted by the AMS-dated archaeobotanical remains and modifications in the Ebla and Qatna settlements inferred from
archaeological excavations, the sensitivity of the two urban sites
to climate fluctuations stands out. The positive effects of water
availability are visible in the sites’ layout: The first truly urban
phase of Ebla and the establishment of Qatna’s control over the
surrounding area both approximately corresponded to a rainy
phase (2500–2350 bc; 4.5–4.3 ka BP). In contrast, the dry period
of 2200–2050 bc (4.0–4.2 ka BP) weakened Ebla to the point that
it easily collapsed under the Akkadian offensive (Matthiae, 1995).
The shift toward more rainy conditions, which occurred during the MBA-I (2000–1800 bc; 4.0–3.8 ka BP), probably played a
role in the socio-political renewal that followed the end of the
EBA (Weiss et al., 1993). Ebla and Qatna underwent considerable
modification between early and middle Bronze Ages, and the
urban landscape was transformed. The end of this phase was
marked by drought (1800–1600 bc; 3.7–3.55 ka BP), after which
Ebla never regained its status, becoming during MBA II a rural
settlement which was wiped out by the Hittite military campaigns
of the LBA. In contrast, Qatna seems to have coped better with
this crisis, and an urban revival took place between the MBA and
LBA (Matthiae, 2006).
Measuring the δ13C of modern plants in order to model regional
growth-limiting factors therefore has great potential in terms of
deducing climate variables from carbon isotope values, while the
measurement of 14C and δ13C in archaeobotanical samples has
made it possible to relate the climate events directly to the historical upheavals deduced from archaeological layers in Syria.
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154
The Holocene 21(1)
Table 2. List of AMS 14C dates of Ebla (E) and Qatna (Q)
Id Laboratory
Sample type
uncal BP
cal BP
Year BC
d13C(‰)
(E) LTL-319A
(E) LTL-389A
(Q) POZ-8348
(E) VERA-3552
(E) LTI-390A
(E) VERA-3555
(E) VERA 3560
(E) VERA 3557
(E) VERA 3559
(E) VERA 3554
(E) VERA 3558
(E) LTL-395A
(Q) POZ-8349
(E) VERA 3556
(E) LTL-387A
(E) LTL-386A
(Q)LTL-2033A
(E) LTL-791A
(E) LTL-393A
(E) VERA 3550
(E) VERA 3551
(E) LTL-394A
(E) LTL-392A
(E) LTL-847A
(Q) LTL-2040A
(Q) LTL-2034A
(E) LTL-846A
(E) LTL-388A
(Q)LTL-2044A
(Q) LTL-2038A
(Q) LTL-2036A
(Q) LTL-2039A
(Q) LTL-2042A
(Q) LTL-2037A
(Q) LTL-2043A
(Q) LTL-2045A
Legume
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Legume
Legume
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Carbonized Fruit
Wood Charcoal
Carbonized Fruit
Carbonized Fruit
Cereal
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Cereal
Wood Charcoal
Wood Charcoal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
Cereal
3208 ± 50
3278 ± 40
3330 ± 32
3330 ± 35
3347 ± 35
3365 ± 35
3365 ± 35
3370 ± 35
3385 ± 35
3400 ± 35
3475 ± 40
3545 ± 45
3586 ± 36
3605 ± 40
3634 ± 55
3652 ± 35
3669 ± 45
3757 ± 45
3830 ± 45
3870 ± 35
3875 ± 25
3878 ± 45
3887 ± 50
3895 ± 45
3937 ± 45
3993 ± 40
3998 ± 45
4020 ± 45
4102 ± 60
4132 ± 40
4144 ± 45
4219 ± 40
4248 ± 50
4268 ± 50
4371 ± 40
4489 ± 45
3455
3510
2555
3550
3555
3560
3560
3625
3635
3640
3740
3810
3905
3910
3960
3980
3985
4110
4275
4320
4325
4325
4290
4325
4345
4490
4485
4515
4670
4680
4685
4695
4690
4890
4950
5170
1610–1390
1690–1440
1690–1520
1690–1510
1700–1520
1750–1600
1750–1600
1750–1600
1770–1600
1780–1610
1890–1680
1980–1740
2040–1870
2040–1870
2150–1870
2140–1910
2150–1920
2300–2020
2460–1910
2470–2270
2470–2280
2470–2280
2490–2200
2480–2270
2500–2290
2630–2450
2640–2430
2670–2450
2880–2560
2880–2580
2880–2580
2820–2670
2940–2830
3030–2840
3100–2900
3360–3080
-27.4 ± 0.2
-25.6 ± 0.2
-19.6 ± 0.1
-22.1 ± 1.3
-26.9 ± 0.1
-24.6 ± 1.9
-22.9 ± 0.3
-22.2 ± 0.2
-22.8 ± 0.2
-25.9 ± 2.1
-23.1 ± 1.3
-23.5 ± 0.1
-23.2 ± 0.2
-24.6 ± 0.9
-23.5 ± 0.1
-21.0 ± 0.2
-23.2 ± 0.2
-22.3 ± 0.5
-27.8 ± 0.5
-26.8 ± 1.6
-23.8 ± 1.6
-24.9 ± 0.1
-24.7 ± 0.l
-27.0 ± 0.2
-26.5 ± 0.3
-18.1 ± 0.4
-25.4 ± 0.3
-28.2 ± 0.2
-25.1 ± 0.5
-24.8 ± 0.2
-20.8 ± 0.2
-24.8 ± 0.4
-21.7 ± 0.1
-24.0 ± 0.2
-21.9 ± 0.3
-25.2 ± 0.4
Figure 4. δ13C analyses for Ebla (black squares) and Qatna (white triangles) as a function of the measured radiocarbon age
Vegetation and landscape changes
During the mid-Holocene climatic and cultural transition,
eastern Mediterranean landscapes were transformed not
only by punctuated aridification of the climate, but also by
human-induced land cover change (Wilkinson, 2003). The
spatial and temporal impact of this landscape metamorphosis
varied from one landscape ecosystem to another, and this can
be seen in the vegetation and land use reconstructed from
pollen records. Most existing pollen data derive from lake
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155
Roberts et al.
Figure 5. Summary % pollen records for seven sites on an east–west transect from western Iran to northwest Greece for the last 9 ka. For
Lake Van the chronology of Litt et al. (2009) is used
sedimentary sequences, but some important large-scale pollen
records have been obtained from east Mediterranean deep-sea
cores, especially for the S1 sapropel layer where organic matter has been relatively well preserved. For the following discussion, we have selected a series of pollen records from
‘terrestrial’ lake sediment records ranging across an east–west
transect across the northern part of the east Mediterranean
region that cover a variety of different biomes. They were chosen on the basis on the quality of their pollen data, chronological control and – in most cases – the availability of comparative
stable isotopic data from the same sediment sequence (Roberts
et al., 2008).
The autecology of vegetative types in the eastern Mediterranean region can be particularly informative on the reconstruction of past environments. The genus Pistacia includes deciduous
and evergreen species that are palynologically indistinguishable; however, all are under-represented in the pollen rain and
are able to withstand summer drought in the mediterraneanirano-turanian bioclimate zone and dominate the vegetation
where winters are mild and frost-free. Quercus (oak) and Pinus
(pine), on the other hand, tend to be over-represented in eastern
Mediterranean pollen diagrams. Evergreen oaks (Quercus ilex,
Q. coccifera subsp. calliprinos) are able to tolerate summer
drought stress but require substantial winter precipitation
and react sensitively to low winter temperatures. Conversely,
deciduous and semi-deciduous oaks (Quercus cerris-type, Q.
pubescens, Q. robur) require higher soil moisture availability
particularly in summer, but can withstand cold, dry winters.
Gymnosperms (conifers) include Pinus spp., Abies (fir), Cedrus
libani (cedar) and Cupressaceae (Juniperus spp.). Pines are
ubiquitous in Mediterranean environments and depending upon
species are able to tolerate summer drought conditions (e.g.
Pinus pinea, P. brutia, P. halepensis) and colder montane
regions (P. nigra, P. sylvestris), while all species of the genus
Abies belong to mountainous vegetation units. Members of
the Chenopodiaceae family are typical steppic indicators and
are adapted to arid and saline conditions while Artemisia
corresponds to less droughty conditions and is cold-tolerant.
Pollen of the Gramineae (Poaceae) family is produced abundantly and is well dispersed and can point to spring and summer
moisture.
Pollen records from interior uplands of
Anatolia-Zagros (parkland-steppe forest zone)
Lake Mirabad – the easternmost of the sites shown in Figure 5 – is
located near the lower limit of the present Zagros oak forest (van
Zeist and Bottema, 1977), while Lake Zeribar lies at a higher
elevation. Initially both pollen sequences are characterised by
open Pistacia woodland. Percentage values of Quercus begin to
increase from ~7.3 ka BP at Zeribar as Pistacia declines, mainly
at the expense of grasses and herbs. This increase is relatively fast
with maximum Quercus and AP values being attained at ~6.8 ka
BP, while at Mirabad maximum Quercus values are not attained
until after 6.9 ka BP. At Mirabad two periods of poor pollen preservation are recorded at ~5.4 ka BP and ~200 BP which according
to van Zeist and Bottema (1977) are attributable to lower lake
levels and desiccation of the coring site (Stevens et al., 2006).
Van is a large lake with a correspondingly wide pollen catchment, lying at a high elevation in southeastern Turkey. The pollen
sequence is derived from laminated sediments which provide the
basis for the core chronology (here adjusted following Litt et al.,
2009). In common with the Zagros sites and Lake Urmia in northwest Iran (Bottema, 1986), Van records an early-Holocene environment characterised by high NAP values comprising steppic
indicators, Gramineae and other herbs, along with significant levels of Pistacia (Wick et al., 2003). Deciduous Quercus increases
only gradually, with maximum AP values not being achieved until
mid-Holocene times (~6.5 ka BP). At Van, Zeribar, Mirabad, and
also at Maharlou near the very eastern end of the Zagros (Djamali
et al., 2009), AP values remain moderately high (>20%) and only
slightly decrease through most of the remainder of the Holocene.
Further to the west, Eski Acıgöl is a former crater lake
located in central Anatolia whose sediments are laminated prior
to ~6.5 ka BP. The pollen sequence records an early-Holocene
vegetation assemblage comprising Pistacia together with
increasing values of deciduous Quercus (Roberts et al., 2001;
Woldring and Bottema, 2003). Maximum AP values, comprising
Quercus and Corylus were not achieved until ~5.3 ka BP, whereupon oak pollen percentage values decline rapidly to reach
lower but stable values around 3.8 ka BP. Pinus then becomes
the dominant arboreal pollen type together with an increase in
steppic pollen; however, the fact that pine does not grow locally
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The Holocene 21(1)
today suggests that much of this conifer pollen may have derived
from long-distance transport.
Pollen from mountains of western Turkey-Greece
(forest zone)
Gölhisar is the most complete and best-dated of a number of
Holocene pollen records from the uplands of southwest Turkey
(Bottema and Woldring, 1984; Eastwood et al., 1999; van Zeist
et al., 1975; Vermoere 2004). The 14C chronology at Gölhisar and
some other sites is also constrained by the presence of a tephra layer
originating from the second millennium bc volcanic eruption of
Santorini (Thera; see Zanchetta et al., 2011, this issue). These pollen sequences show that conifer-dominated forest was established
by ~9.0 ka BP, comprising Pinus, Juniperus, Cedrus, Abies along
with some Quercus. At ~3.3 ka BP, soon after the deposition of the
Santorini tephra layer, there is a clear increase in pollen types associated with anthropogenic activity such as arboriculture. This is the
start of the so-called Beyşehir Occupation (BO) phase, which is
found in almost all pollen diagrams from southwest Turkey and is
one of the clearest regional expressions of human land-use change
anywhere in the Mediterranean. It continued until the mid-first millennium ad (late Roman period; Eastwood et al., 1998), and variants of it are found in northwest and central Turkey and the Levant.
Moving to northwestern Turkey, the composition of the forest
changes to include significant mesic taxa that are more typical of
the Balkans. At Abant the pollen sequence shows that deciduous
forests were already established by ~9.0 ka BP, comprising initially Acer, Ulmus and Quercus and then also with Carpinus betulus
and Corylus. Conifers comprising Pinus and Abies were also
locally important albeit at higher elevations. Between ~8.0 and
~4.0 ka BP the pollen evidence shows that Fagus expanded producing a mixed beech-fir forest. From ~3.7 ka BP there is a marked
decrease in other mesic trees (down from 40% to 15%) and Abies
and an increase in deciduous oak and conifers (mainly Pinus). An
anthropogenic cause for these changes was inferrred by Bottema et
al. (1993) owing to the presence of Cerealia-type and Plantago
lanceolata-type pollen which commence at this time.
An early postglacial re-establishment of forest cover is also
characteristic of pollen sequences from northern Greece, such as
Ioannina (Pamvotis), and the coastal mountains of the Levant
(e.g. Ghab; Yasuda et al., 2000). The Ioannina record shows that
already by 9 ka BP, the surrounding uplands were covered by
mixed deciduous forest comprising Quercus and Ostrya carpinifolia/Carpinus orientalis, along with mesic taxa such as Tilia,
Ulmus and Fraxinus ornus, and some Pistacia (Lawson et al.,
2004). This apparently dense forest cover was maintained until
~5.2 ka BP when it was rapidly opened up, associated with an
increase in NAP including ruderal pollen, plus evergreen Quercus
and Phillyrea. However, deforestation only became permanent in
the last two millennia, following a phase of secondary afforestation at the end of the late Bronze Age.
Marine pollen cores
Records of vegetation changes derived from marine cores have
certain strengths in comparison to those derived from ‘terrestrial’
lake sediment sequences (Kotthoff et al., 2008; Rossignol-Strick,
1999). The taphonomy of palynomorphs in marine cores is such
that the resultant pollen signal is regional (cf. a pollen sequence
from a lake site which is confounded by locally versus regionally
produced pollen), although some well-dispersed pollen taxa (e.g.
Pinus) are seriously over-represented and have to be excluded
from the pollen sum, especially in non-sapropelic sediment. Lake
sediment sequences originating from sites in the eastern Mediterranean are often based on a limited number of radiocarbon ages,
with interpolation between adjacent dates, which often implies a
constant sediment accumulation rate and which may not match
changes in sediment lithology. By contrast, deep-sea sedimentation is normally continuous and less variable through time.
Pollen data from a marine core from the Mount Athos Basin
(Aegean Sea) indicates that maximum non-saccate AP values
were achieved a little before 9.0 ka BP (Kotthoff et al., 2008;
Peyron et al., 2011, this issue). This comprised mainly Quercus,
indicating that broadleaved forest dominated the early-Holocene
vegetation until ~7.0 ka BP, when increases in Pinus and Abies
pollen imply the spread of these conifers in the northern borderlands of the Aegean Sea. Several centennial-scale decreases in
Quercus pollen associated with maxima in Cichorioideae pollen
percentages point to climatic deteriorations centred at ~8.6, ~8.1,
~7.4 and ~6.5 ka BP (Kotthoff et al., 2008). The ~8.1 ka BP event
is contemporary with the interruption of sapropel deposition in
the eastern Mediterranean which is itself correlative with the 8.2
ka cold event widely known in northern European records (Alley
and Ágústsdóttir, 2005; Kotthoff et al., 2008). In the Levantine
and Ionian Sea basins, Rossignol-Strick (1999) highlighted the
distinct early Holocene Pistacia biostratigraphic phase that is also
found in many terrestrial pollen sequences, and which she associated with a reduction in the frequency of winter frosts.
Interpreting the east Mediterranean pollen record
As Figure 5 shows, the record of Holocene vegetation change
from terrestrial sites in the eastern Mediterranean region is spatially heterogeneous, but displays clear regional patterns. Interior
sites in the semi-arid oak parkland and steppe-forest zones record
relatively gradual increases in AP during the early Holocene,
comprising mainly deciduous Quercus, and maximum AP values
for Zeribar, Mirabad, Van and Eski Acıgöl are not achieved until
mid-Holocene times (~6.7 to ~5.0 ka BP). By contrast, at more
humid coastal mountain sites (Ioannina, Gölhisar, Abant, Ghab,
etc.) the forest cover was well established by ~9.0 ka BP. The
lagged early-Holocene re-afforestation at interior regions has
been the subject of extensive debate. Based on plant–climate relations it was initially assumed that moisture only increased slowly
during the early Holocene, with the climate being drier at that
time than in subsequent millennia (e.g. Roberts and Wright, 1993;
van Zeist and Bottema 1991). As independent climate proxies
have become available, including stable isotope data from the
same pollen records (Figure 6), this interpretation has become
increasingly untenable. Instead cave speleothem and palaeolimnological evidence points to higher moisture availability during
the early Holocene, and the question – still not fully answered –
has therefore become how to explain the divergence between an
apparently wetter climate and the relatively low AP% that characterised interior parkland zones at this time. Part of the explanation
may lie with under-representation of key vegetation types in the
pollen record, not only of Pistacia, but also many woody species
which are insect-pollinated (e.g. Rosaceae, Pomoideae) or characterised by erratic pollen production (e.g. Celtis; Woldring and
Cappers, 2001). Archaeobotanical studies show that these taxa
were a very significant part of the early-Holocene vegetation in
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157
Roberts et al.
Figure 6. Comparative multiproxy data, standardised normal δ18O versus %AP (Arboreal Pollen), for four lake sediments records from the
east Mediterranean oak parkland zone. Note the divergence at all sites prior to ~6 ka BP between negative isotope values, consistent with a
wetter climate, and low but rising tree pollen values (see text for discussion)
central and eastern Anatolia (e.g. Asouti, 2005). A second significant factor was changes in the seasonality of climate regimes,
including the intensity of summer drought which characterises
most of the east Mediterranean region at the present day. A range
of temperature proxies, from alkenone-derived SSTs (e.g. Emeis
et al., 2000), to speleothem fluid inclusions (McGarry et al., 2004)
and glacial extension on Anatolian mountains (Sarıkaya et al.,
2009), point to early-Holocene temperatures 2–4°C lower than in
recent years. At the same time, the prevalence of Pistacia would
appear to indicate winters milder than today (Rossignol-Strick,
1999). Together this implies that temperature lowering must have
occurred during the summer months, which is most likely if summers were then cooler and cloudier. Such an interpretation is
given support by the fact that mesic tree taxa reach their maximum values during the Pistacia pollen phase, not only in wellwatered locations such as northwest Turkey (Abant) and northern
Greece (Ioannina), but also in presently summer-dry regions such
as central Anatolia (Eski Acıgöl) and the Zagros (Zeribar). However, the combination of ecologically incompatible taxa (Pistacia,
Ulmus+Corylus, Gramineae, Artemisia+Chenopodiaceae) should
caution against interpreting this flora too closely in terms of modern climate analogues. Additionally, one of the main oak species,
Q. brantii, is associated today with spring-season rainfall, and
Djamali et al. (2010) have proposed that in the early Holocene
this taxon was restricted by a seasonality shift towards winter
precipitation. A third factor which appears to have delayed the
re-establishment of tree in interior regions of southwest Asia was
wildfire, with seasonal burning acting to maintain early-Holocene
grasslands at the expense of woodland (Roberts, 2002). The association between microcharcoal flux and grassland pollen indicators is particularly clear in the records from Eski Acıgöl and Van
(Turner et al., 2010; Wick et al., 2003). Burning was most frequent and/or intense during the first two to three millennia of the
Holocene, and became less important between ~9 and ~7 ka BP.
During this latter period, on the other hand, Neolithic settlement
became widespread across the eastern Mediterranean region, and
cultural landscape management – for example, by sheep grazing
and goat browsing – may have started to exert a significant influence over vegetation cover and composition. Other biotic and abiotic factors that could have affected the migration and expansion
of forests into regions of sparse tree cover, include rates of dispersal, the starting positions from where arboreal elements expanded
from (refugia), and the existence of suitable edaphic conditions
(van Zeist and Bottema, 1991).
Maximum tree cover across drier parts of the eastern Mediterranean region was therefore not achieved until mid-Holocene
times, around 6 ka BP. This is the period when there appears to be
the closest correspondence between vegetation composition and
prevailing climatic conditions (i.e. significantly wetter than today),
as reflected in a relatively good match between pollen-inferred
climate parameters and lake stable isotope values (Eastwood
et al., 2007). Unequivocal evidence for human impact on the
natural environment at this time does not find clear expression in
the palaeoecological record (Willis and Bennett, 1994), which is
somewhat surprising, given the abundant archaeological evidence
from Neolithic-Chalcolithic sites in the region. Among the few
pollen records to show pre-Bronze Age woodland clearance are
Ağlasun in southwest Turkey dating to ~6.3 ka BP (Vermoere,
2004) and Birket Ram in the Golan Heights of the Levant, ~7.0 ka
BP (Schwab et al., 2004). There are several reasons why preBronze Age environmental impacts are difficult to identify with
certainty from east Mediterranean pollen records. One is that
many palynological indicators of cultural activity (e.g. Cerealiatype pollen) are present naturally in southwest Asia, and they consequently do not provide a diagnostic indicator of prehistoric
farming activity. Human-induced forest clearance becomes
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158
The Holocene 21(1)
clearly evident only during Bronze Age times, with the date of
first major deforestation varying regionally between the EBA (~5
ka BP; ~3000 bc) in Central Anatolia (Eski Acıgöl, Yeniçağa …),
Greece (Ioannina, Xinias …) and the Levant, to the LBA (~3.3 ka
BP; first millennium bc) in well-forested areas of western Turkey
(e.g. Abant, Gölhisar). Significantly, in several of these pollen
records (e.g. Ioannina, Birket Ram), there is also sedimentological and/or mineral magnetic evidence for increased soil erosion in
the surrounding lake catchment coinciding with forest removal
(Lawson et al., 2004; Schwab et al., 2004).
There is some indication from the summary pollen diagrams
that periods of drier climate identified from δ18O changes in the
same records coincided with episodes of reduced AP (Figure 6).
At Mirabad, and to a lesser extent Zeribar, AP reduction corresponds with drier periods (e.g. ~5.3 ka BP), while at Eski Acıgöl
reduced AP coincides with isotopically inferred arid intervals, for
example at 3.1–2.7 ka BP. Human impacts on regional vegetation
and landscape stability are therefore likely to have been amplified
by the oscillating trend towards drier climatic conditions between
~6 and ~3 ka BP. At drier sites (e.g. Eski Acıgöl) the first major
phase of forest loss was irreversible, and after ~5 ka BP, forest
cover never again reached its mid-Holocene extent. By contrast,
in wetter areas (e.g. Ioannina, Abant), the initial Bronze clearance
phase was followed by later periods of secondary forest development at times when human population pressure was diminished,
indicating that these ecosystems possessed greater ability to
recover following disturbance. Finally, at the eastern AnatolianZagros sites of Zeribar, Mirabad and Van, deciduous Quercus percentage values are sustained at relatively high values until late
Holocene. This would seem to indicate either lower levels of
human disturbance in these areas, or the development of forms of
land management that allowed the continuation of woodland
cover (c.f. the Dehesa/Montado agro-ecosystem of Iberia).
Conclusion
During the period between 6 and 3 ka BP, literate, urban-based
cultures and polities emerged, initially in the valleys of the Nile,
Euphrates and Tigris rivers and in the Levant, and later in Anatolia
and Greece. These changes in human culture were of the highest
importance and they overlapped with a very significant oscillating trend from wetter to drier climatic conditions. In the mid
Holocene, climate and human agency combined to transform the
landscape ecologies of the eastern Mediterranean. The different
components that make up the region’s cultural-environmental
system (vegetation, climate, etc.) can be reconstructed from a
range of proxies (pollen, stable isotopes, archaeology, etc.). However, demonstrating causal linkages between them is limited by
chronologies that have absolute ages with only centennial precision at best. Synchronous matches that would support the deterministic role of climate on cultural or landscape changes are not
easy to establish with confidence. In order to circumvent this
problem, we have included in this review multiproxy records,
from which climate and/or vegetation and/or human activity can
be derived from the same sequence, without the imprecision
introduced by the need for intersite correlation. In this way, stable
isotope and pollen records are presented from common lake sediment records (Figure 6); similarly, 14C and δ13C measurements on
archaeobotanical samples from Bronze Age sites in Syria have
allowed us to make a direct linkage between palaeoclimatic and
archaeological sequences. This multiproxy approach is potentially
applicable to changes in other components of the Mediterranean
environment, such as soil erosion and sediment flux.
The results of this intercomparison in fact indicate a remarkably
close correspondence between the timing of events – climatic, cultural, or in landscape ecology. However, the consequences of these
events were not predictable in advance, but instead were contingent
on antecedent conditions and/or human choices. This is clearly evident in the three periods of climatic aridity that occurred towards the
end of the fourth, third and second millennia bc. These arid phases
coincide with major breaks in the eastern Mediterranean archaeological record, namely Chalcolithic/EBA, EBA/MBA, and LBA/Iron
Age. The last two of these archaeological transitions were associated
with regional population decline and in some cases political collapse,
before the eventual establishment of a new order (Schwartz, 2007).
On the other hand, the Chalcolithic/EBA drought seems to have
prompted major cultural transformation and advancement (Dynastic
Egypt, earliest Mesopotamian City States) without any sign of obvious collapse of the pre-existing social order. Even for the archaeological transitions later in the Bronze Age, the role of climate change
was to act as an external factor which revealed internal societal tensions, particularly for centralised states (Marro and Kuzucuoğlu,
2007). This can be illustrated by the high degree of integration and
specialization of some neighbouring territories (e.g. NE Syria during
the Akkadian Empire), which caused the rapid propagation of socioeconomic problems, pushing all of these societies to collapse, either
together or one after the other. Meanwhile, other territories (e.g. NW
Syria, most of the Middle Euphrates valley) went on flourishing at
the end of the third millennium bc, most probably because these societies were less rigid, could adapt to changing circumstances, and
were also living close to permanent water resources delivered by ����
perennial rivers (e.g. Mari on the Euphrates).
The consequences of climatic change also depended on the preexisting landscape sensitivity, with droughts having an effect on
agriculture and vegetation cover earlier in semi-arid than in humid
areas. These effects were also less easily reversed in drier areas, that
were consequently marginal for plant growth. This is well illustrated
by comparing the pollen records from Eski Acıgöl (semi-arid, central Anatolia), where oak woodland declined during the EBA and
never recovered, with Abant and Ioannina (NW Turkey, NW Greece,
both humid) where initial forest loss was followed by forest recovery later in the Holocene. A majority of pollen records show that
during the Bronze Age the ‘human footprint’ on landscape ecology
becomes clearly visible for the first time, and by ~2.5 ka BP much of
the well-wooded vegetation of the mid Holocene was transformed
into a series of cultural landscapes by a combination of human landuse activities and climatic aridification. In combination this helps us
to understand the complex mutual relationship between human society, vegetation ecology and climate-forcing events that led to the
creation of today’s Mediterranean landscapes.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Miryam Bar-Matthews, Mick Frogley,
Matthew Jones, Jamie Quinn, Tim Absalom, Ian Lawson, Melanie
Leng, Arlene Rosen, Lora Stevens, Lucia Wick, Henk Woldring,
and contributors to the European Pollen Database for assistance.
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