Savills World Research Korea Briefing Seoul office sector Q1 2017 Image : CBD, Seoul SUMMARY There is increasing demand for office upgrades, as the demand from prime office tenants diversifies. The proportion of gaming and IT software companies, co-working, and financial outsourcing companies increased. The Korean economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.8% in 2016. Due to anticipated export growth, GDP projections for 2017 have been revised upwards to 2.6%. Excluding Lotte World Tower, a total of 97,800 sq m of new space was supplied to the Seoul prime office market in Q1/2017. Net absorption was 90,000 sq m, up approximately 7% from the 84,000 sq m recorded in Q1/2016. As of March 2017, the average vacancy rate for Seoul prime offices was 14.1%. Active relocations from secondary to prime office buildings occurred, due to increased demand for office upgrades. As of March 2017, face rents rose by 1%, which is lower than the current CPI rate 2.2%. However, pronounced divergences in buildings’ vacancy rates have impacted their headline rent movements. "In Q1/2017, domestic office market investment volumes reached a record high, as many deals which started in 2016 closed." Savills Research savills.co.kr/research 01 Briefing | Seoul office sector Supply In Q1/2017, three new prime buildings were delivered in Seoul. In the CBD, Susong Square, Samsung Life Insurance’s former office building in Susongdong, was extended (New GFA of 50,400 sq m with an additional area of 5,500 sq m) and obtained usage permission. In the YBD, SK Securities Building in Yeouido (K Tower, with a GFA of 47,400 sq m) was completed. Lastly, Lotte World Tower in Jamsil (with a GFA of 327,100 sq m and a total leasable office area of 143,700 sq m) was finally completed and will be partially occupied by Lotte affiliates and Descente. Demand and vacancy rate In March 2017, the Bank of Korea (BOK) estimated economic growth of 2.8% for 2016. The BOK explained at a meeting in April that “Exports grew faster than expected as the global economy improved, which has supported Korean economic growth. However, considering the spreading trade protectionism, it still has to be seen whether export volumes will rise back to the pre-global financial crisis level.” The economic growth rate for 2017 is projected at 2.6%. In Q1/2017, demand for Seoul prime office buildings increased in all three major office districts, with total net absorption of 90,000 sq m. A net area of 13,600 sq m was absorbed in the CBD, 37,600 sq m in the GBD, and 38,700 sq m in the YBD. While the CBD saw a decrease in net absorption, stemming from Samsung’s financial affiliates relocating to the GBD, overall net absorption rose, due to active leasing by new tenants. Vacancy increased in Q1/2017, in both the CBD and the YBD, as new buildings completed in both areas. Newly-supplied buildings will record vacancy rate declines as they are filled in Q2 by tenants which have pre-leased space. However, as most demand for those office space is from prime-to-prime relocations, there will be no change in the Q1 2017 TABLE 1 Monthly rent and vacancy rate by district, Q1/2017 Average rent Average rent YoY rental Net absorption Vacancy rate (%) (KRW per 3.3058 (KRW per 3.3058 increase rate (%) (sq m) (Previous Quarter) sq m GLA) sq m NLA) District CBD 102,600 185,800 1.2% 13,600 17.3% (16.2%) GBD 90,400 176,700 1.2% 37,600 7.9% (9.6%) YBD 79,200 161,700 0.1% 38,700 17.0% (14.2%) Overall Seoul Average 93,800 177,900 1.0% 90,000 14.1% (13.6%) Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 1 Growth rate of real GDP and real exports, 2006 - 2018 (F) Economic Growth (GDP, annual variance in %) 18% 17.1% 16% 14% 12% Export Growth (annual variance in %) 12.4% 13.4% 13.5% 10% 8% 6% 5.5% 5.2% 6.5% 6.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4% 2.8% 2% 0% 3.7% 2006 2007 2008 0.7% 0.4% 2009 2010 2011 2.9% 2.3% 2012 2013 3.3% 2.6% 0.5% 2.3% 2014 2015 2.8% 3.30% 3.50% 2.20% 2016 2.6% 2.9% 2017F 2018F Source: Bank of Korea GRAPH 2 The number of employees in the financial and insurance sectors, Mar. 2008 – Mar. 2017 1,200 Financial Institutions & Insurance Employment (LHS) Total Employment (RHS) Unit: thousand 27,000 1,100 25,000 1,000 23,000 900 21,000 800 19,000 700 17,000 600 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 15,000 Mar-17 Source: Korean Statistical Information Service GRAPH 3 Net absorption, Q1/2008 – Q1/2017 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 -200,000 CBD Unit: sq m GBD YBD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 Source: Savills Korea 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 * Lotte World Tower in Jamsil, a prime grade A building, was excluded in the calculation of vacancy rate and rent but included in the net absorption area savills.co.kr/research 02 Briefing | Seoul office sector In Q1/2017, relocations from secondary to prime, thereby upgrading space, were a common theme. Relocations for office upgrades accounted for 61% of all tenant movement, which is well above the 36% posted in 2016, and also the highest level ever recorded. Meanwhile, prime-toprime relocations represented 11%, and new office openings 18%, due to WeWork, which opened a new branch in the Daishin Finance Tower. The CBD posted a 17.3% vacancy rate, with Daishin Finance Center positively impacting occupancy thanks to the WeWork deal. However, the overall CBD vacancy rate rose as the newly completed Susong Square will not be occupied until Q2. Excluding vacancies created by new buildings, the vacancy rate fell slightly from the previous quarter to 15.6%. Samsung financial affiliates’ relocation from the CBD to the GBD, which started in 2016, is nearly complete. Tenant relocations are prevalent among many affiliates of major companies within the district, including CJ affiliates, Lotte Global Logistics, KB Kookmin Card and LG’s affiliates. In the GBD, the vacancy rate dropped 1.8%p from the previous quarter to 7.9%, and remained the lowest among the three major office districts. CJ affiliates and Riot Games have moved to Parnas Tower. With the vacancy in Hanwha Life Insurance’s office building (Seochodong) was filled by Hyundai Card / Capital as they opened an integrated branch office. The GBD, which has had virtually no space from new supply, saw its vacancy rate, which was pushed up by the completion of Parnas Tower, return to a similar level as Q1/2016. The YBD posted a vacancy rate increase to 17% as Yeouido SK Securities Building (K Tower) completed. An analysis of YBD vacancy, excluding new office supply, shows a vacancy rate of 14.4%, similar to the previous quarter. A new branch established by TEC leased space in Three IFC. All vacancies within Shinhan Finance Investment Building was absorbed due to their own expansion, plus an affiliate, Shinhan Aitas, taking occupation. The vacancy in Daewoo Securities’ Building, resulting from Mirae Asset Daewoo’s CBD move, was filled as Mirae Asset Life Insurance moved their HQ here from Samseongdong. GRAPH 4 Proportion of all take-up space, Q1/2017 YBD 15% CBD 49% GBD 36% Rent rates In Q1/2017, the face rent of Seoul office buildings was KRW93,800/3.3sq m, up 1% from Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 5 Take-up, Q1/2017 vs. 2016 Q1/2017 2016 New organisation 14% New organisation 18% Expansion 10% Expansion 17% Secondary to prime 61% Prime to prime 11% Secondary to prime 36% Prime to prime 33% Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 6 Seoul prime office vacancy rate, Q1/2008 – Q1/2017 CBD 30% GBD YBD 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 overall market vacancy rate. The GBD vacancy fell due to demand for office upgrades and companies consolidating operations. Q1 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Savills Korea savills.co.kr/research 03 Briefing | Seoul office sector GRAPH 7 YoY rental increase rate by district, Q1/2008 – Q1/2017 CBD 9% GBD YBD CPI growth rate(YoY) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 the same period last year. By district, the CBD and GBD both showed a 1.2% increase; the YBD increased by a mere 0.1%, as Yuhwa Securities Building raised quoted rental deposits in exchange for a 28% decrease in monthly rent. Those buildings which raised their face rents posted an average increase of 3%. These increases were mainly led by lease indexation provisions or rent adjustments to reflect the current market after long-term tenants’ vacated. Three buildings decreased rents within the 1% range to offset higher vacancy. Tenant inducements such as rent-free periods, fit-out periods and tenant improvements, remain particularly evident in assets suffering high vacancy rates. Q1 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea Outlook In 2017, KEB Hana Bank’s office building, slated for completion in Euljiro in Q3, is the only remaining building to be supplied in the three major business districts. In areas outside the three major office districts, Amore Pacific’s new office building (Yongsan) and Majestar City (Seocho) will also complete in Q3. The CBD will continue to see the most tenant relocation activity. In Q2, Susong Square, which underwent an extension and extensive remodelling, will be fully occupied after pre-letting. SK E&C will take 80%, whilst SK Telecom and SK Gas will use the remaining office space. Existing vacancies in other buildings will be filled by large tenants: KB Kookmin Card will lease space in Tower 8; SK Communications and service company MPC will relocate to T Tower; and SKC will move to the K Twin Towers. As such, vacancy in the CBD will continue to be absorbed. KEB Hana Bank’s Euljiro office building will be solely used by KEB Hana Bank, which will relocate from Gran Seoul and Seoul Square. In addition, Amore Pacific, a large occupier in Signature Towers, will relocate in early 2018 to its new HQ. Lastly, an array of conglomerate affiliates, government-related organisations and call centres are in the process of moving to the Seoul station area and will absorb vacancy. Of the three major office districts, the GBD is the most stable leasing market, and this trend will persist. Parnas Tower, which completed in Q3/2016, currently posts a 41% occupancy rate and is expected to achieve full occupancy imminently, following further expected deals with professional services providers and game-related IT software companies. GT Tower is expected to incur significant vacancy after Kolon Industry moves to a nearby secondary asset in Q2. Descente will relocate from its current building at Capital Tower to Lotte World Tower in Q3. SK Securities Yeouido Building (K Tower), newly supplied in the YBD, has already achieved 70% occupancy as it lured SK Securities, currently located at Samsung Life Insurance’s Yeouido Building (occupation target of Q2), plus HPE from in the HP Building (occupation expected Q4). The YBD is not expected to see further vacancy declines as these two companies are relocating from prime buildings within the vicinity. Transactions and investment market There is ongoing downward pressure on the base interest rate in light of economic fundamentals. However, the benchmark interest rate has remained at 1.25%, the lowest ever level, since June 2016, amid capital flight concerns triggered by fed rates looking likely to overtake the BOK rate. Yields on five-year government bonds and borrowing costs rose slightly in Q1/2017, continuing the upward trend from Q4/2016, due to rising the US interest rates and domestic political uncertainty. Despite a challenging political climate (domestically and internationally), Korean office investment volumes exceeded KRW1.8 trillion, as multiple property transactions, which had been underway since 2016, were successfully concluded. This was the highest ever Q1 volume. Most transactional activity involved buildings with an element of vacancy risk, with a diverse array of domestic and international investors adopting different approaches to mitigate this. The Ilsong Building, for example, attracted WeWork, a global coworking space provider, as an savills.co.kr/research 04 Briefing | Seoul office sector Q1 2017 anchor tenant, helping to create a stabilised product and ultimately securing the incoming investors. For Metro Building, the incoming investor is considering conversion into an officetel as a strategy. (KRW6.66million/3.3sq m) in March 2017. Booyoung Songdo Tower’s vacancy rate is approximately 40%, and Posco are said to have masterleased its existing leasing area for five years. In January 2017, the Booyoung Group, a domestic construction company, purchased the Booyoung Eulji Building (formerly the Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Building) for KRW438 billion. With a building coverage ratio of 73%, which is higher than other prime buildings, the asset has a vacancy rate exceeding 75% after Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance vacated. They also acquired Booyoung Songdo Tower (formerly Posco E&C Tower) from Posco E&C for KRW300 billion IGIS Asset Management purchased the Samsung Taepyeongno Building located on Taepyeongno 2-ga from Samsung Life Insurance for KRW230 billion (KRW19million/3.3sq m). The major investor is understood to be a domestic party. Following Samsung Life Insurance’s relocation to Seocho, the asset now has a significant amount of space to lease. IGIS Asset Management also acquired T Tower, located near Seoul station, from Midas Asset Management for KRW188.7 billion (KRW14.99 million/3.3sq m) in January 2017. The major investor is PGIM from the Prudential Financial Group. T Tower, which did pose significant leasing risk, has recently attracted new tenants, including MPC and SK Communications, and is now effectively stabilised. KTB Asset Management acquired the Ilsong Building, located on Teheran-ro, from Mirae Asset Management for KRW127.1 billion (KRW20.89million/3.3sq m) in March 2017. Two European investors invested the full equity for the deal. WeWork signed a 15-year lease in the building, which offers TABLE 2 Major tenant relocations, Q1/2017 To District From Building Tenant Area (sq m) District Daishin Finance Center WeWork 18,200 NEW Twin City Namsan CJ Olive Networks 9,900 Bundang First Tower Yonsei Severance Bldg Lotte Global Logistics 5,500 CBD Hyundai Group Bldg (West) Tower 8 KB Card TF 3,900 CBD Daewoo Plaza Bldg Yonsei Severance Bldg Lotte Logistics 3,700 CBD Yonsei Bongrae Bldg Pacific Tower (former Olive Tower) CMA CGM 2,600 CBD Hanwha Finance Centre Taepyeongro T Tower LG Electronics 2,400 Non-core Buildings from outside Seoul SC First Bank HQ Zigbang 2,300 CBD Samil Bldg Twin City Namsan Skechers Korea 2,000 Non-core LS Yongsan Tower Jongno Tower SPARX Asset Management 1,500 YBD Two IFC Hanwha Life Seocho HQ Hyundai Card/ Hyundai Capital 10,000 GBD Branch Consolidation and Relocation Parnas Tower CJ E&M 9,900 Bundang First Tower Parnas Tower Riot Games 8,500 Non-core ICT Tower (Shinsa-dong) Parnas Tower Mezzo Media 4,900 Bundang First Tower Glass Tower Parexel Korea 3,700 GBD Haesung 1 (Daechi-dong) Samsung Life Insurance Seocho Tower Samsung Life Insurance 3,700 CBD Samsung Life Insurance Taepyeongro Bldg Capital Tower Viva Republica 1,600 GBD Hyunik Bldg (Yeoksam-dong) Shinhan Financial Investment Tower Shinhan Aitas 3,500 YBD Excon Venture Tower KTB Bldg Linde Korea 2,200 YBD Kiwoom Finance Square HP Bldg Sillajen 1,900 YBD Korea Teachers' Pension Bldg Three IFC TEC 1,800 NEW CBD GBD Building YBD Source: Savills Korea savills.co.kr/research 05 Briefing | Seoul office sector Q2 Q3 Q4 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Savills Korea GRAPH 9 Prime office building cap rate trends, Q1/2005 – Q1/2017 Spread (RHS) Cap rate (LHS) Five-year treasury bond yield (LHS) 9% 900 8% 800 7% 700 6% 600 5% 500 4% 400 3% 300 2% 200 1% 100 0% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2016 2017 Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea GRAPH 10 Five-year treasury bond yield and benchmark interest rate trends, Jan. 2012 – Mar. 2017 5yr Treasury bond yield The Bank of Korea Base Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2017-03-31 2017-01-31 2016-11-30 2016-09-30 2016-07-31 2016-05-31 2016-03-31 2016-01-31 2015-11-30 2015-09-30 2015-07-31 2015-05-31 2015-03-31 2015-01-31 2014-11-30 2014-09-30 2014-07-31 2014-05-31 2014-03-31 2014-01-31 2013-11-30 2013-09-30 2013-07-31 2013-05-31 2013-03-31 2013-01-31 2012-11-30 1.0% 2012-09-30 1.5% 2012-07-31 As of Q1/2017, assuming a 90% occupancy based on face rents, the prime Seoul cap rate equates to 4.7%. However, if one considers current effective rents, prime net initial yields are trading in the low 4% range. At the end of March, even though the yield on five-year government bonds rose above 1.8%, the spread was in the neighborhood of 300 basis points (bps). In general, the available LTV is 55% in the Korean investment market. Q1 Unit: KRW (Trillion) 9 2012-05-31 In addition to hard asset transactions, a number of forward sales have been recently executed. Dongbu AMC (Orion Partners backed by an overseas pension fund) contracted to acquire 5th District in Seosomoon at the end of March. KORAMCO AMC committed to an MOU on the A Building at Majestar City, following the sale of B building, which was forwardpurchased last year by IGIS AMC (Invesco was the investor). More forward sales are expected as developers look to de-risk early, while investors are prepared to tolerate leasing risk in order to enhance returns and / or secure the best new assets. Seoul office transaction volumes, Q1/2008 – Q1/2017 2012-03-31 The Bareun Building in Gangnam was sold for KRW77.7 billion (KRW22.63million/3.3sq m) through IGIS Core Office Public Offering Real Estate Investment Trust 117, created by IGIS Asset Management. Approximately KRW33 billion was raised through the public offering fund. A stable dividend helped entice investors as the asset was sold with the benefit of a 10-year master lease to law firm Bareun. Its location close to the Hyundai Motors Global Business Center development, slated for completion in 2021, was also a major selling point. GRAPH 8 2012-01-31 an unusually long income profile with scope for capital value growth driven from surrounding area improvements. Asset management companies targeting and attracting co-working space tenants in order to de-risk vacancy and maximise WALT (Weighted Average Leased Term) remains a common trend. Q1 2017 Source: Bank of Korea savills.co.kr/research 06 Briefing | Seoul office sector Q1 2017 TABLE 3 Major investment transactions, Q1/2017 Building Name Seller Buyer Transacted area (sq m) Transaction price (KRW bil) T Tower Midas AMC IGIS AMC 41,598 188.7 Booyoung Eulji Building (former Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Building) Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Booyoung Group 54,654 438.0 Samsung Taepyeongno Building Samsung Life Insurance IGIS AMC 40,002 230.0 Ilsong Building Mirae Asset Management KTB AMC 20,126 127.2 Metro Building Samsung Life Insurance Mastern AMC 13,201 86.5 Bareun Law Firm Bareun IGIS AMC 11,350 77.7 Booyoung Songdo Tower (former Posco E&C Tower) Posco E&C Booyoung Group 148,790 300.0 District CBD GBD Others Source : Savills Korea Please contact us for further information Savills Korea K.D. Jeon CEO Savills Korea +82 2 2124 4101 [email protected] Savills Research Crystal Lee Senior Director Investment Advisory +82 2 2124 4163 [email protected] Seunghan Lee Senior Director Leasing & Marketing +82 2 2124 4253 [email protected] Hyunseok Jhee Director PM Services +82 2 2124 4204 [email protected] JoAnn Hong Director Korea +82 2 2124 4182 [email protected] Simon Smith Senior Director Asia Pacific +852 2842 4573 [email protected] Miah Yang Senior Director Retail Service +82 2 2124 4270 [email protected] Savills plc Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 500 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general informative purposes only. 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The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. savills.co.kr/research 07 Briefing | Seoul office sector Q1 2017 Appendix Overview of the Seoul office market and Savills Korea office survey TABLE 4 Summary of surveyed buildings, Mar. 2017 CBD GBD YBD Total Number of buildings 22 12 9 43 Average GFA (sq m) 85,000 99,000 101,000 92,000 Average year of completion 2006 2004 2004 2005 Number of buildings 21 19 9 49 Average GFA (sq m) 55,000 47,000 45,000 50,000 Average year of completion 2002 1999 1996 1999 Total number of buildings 43 31 18 92 Total area (sq m) 3,030,000 2,080,000 1,310,000 6,430,000 A B Source: Savills Research & Consultancy Close to 64.7% of large office buildings (30,000 sq m or more) in Seoul are located in three major business districts – the CBD (32.3%), GBD (18.3%) and YBD (14.0%). The CBD is the largest of these districts and is home to major government and multinational institutions. The GBD also houses many multinational companies and is an information technology centre, while YBD, the "Wall Street" of South Korea, includes the headquarters of major securities firms and broadcasting companies. The Savills Korea Quarterly Office survey is the longest running survey of prime office stock in Seoul. Established in 1997, it currently comprises 92 of the 120 buildings in Seoul classified as "prime" buildings. Prime buildings: Buildings with a GFA greater than 30,000 sq m with good accessibility and facilities, a high level of finish, and creditworthy blue-chip tenants. Monthly rent: Surveyed rents are "face rents", the asking rents reported by landlords for mid-level floors. These rents are standardised by Savills Korea to account for variations in the security deposits required by different landlords to produce an effective rental figure for NLA. Cap rate calculation method Cap rate: (income from interest on security deposit (5%) + face rent of a standard floor + residual income from maintenance fee) × occupancy rate (90%) × 12 / transaction amount. For comparison of cap rates of each transaction case, a 5% interest rate on security deposit and 90% occupancy rate were uniformly applied. savills.co.kr/research 08
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