PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
This course reviews the basic statistical methods of inferring the causal impact of public policy initiatives on
social outcomes. Topics include randomized controlled trials, instrumental variable analysis, regression
discontinuity designs, difference-in-difference “natural experiments,” and propensity score/nearest neighbor
matching methods. The benefits and drawbacks of each method will be discussed; students will gain practical
experience in conducting each method using instructor-provided datasets and Stata statistical software. The
course is designed for the benefit of students who intend to conduct self-directed policy evaluation
research. The course is appropriate for students with a strong grounding in statistics, including multiple
regression and limited dependent variable models. Whenever possible, topics will be discussed using intuitive
and/or graphical methods, with minimal reference to matrix algebra or calculus.
Meeting Time
Tuesdays, 8:30-11:20 AM, Music 212
Instructor
Jacob Vigdor, [email protected], 616-4436, office hours Mondays 10:30 AM - 12:30 PM in Parrington 324 and by
appointment.
Prerequisites
All students enrolled in the course are expected to be familiar with the statistical concepts and techniques
necessary to estimate and interpret multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Familiarity with matrix
algebra is advantageous but not necessary.
Readings
Readings will be drawn from two required texts as well as a series of journal articles available as electronic
resources and linked in the course calendar listings below. The required texts are:
Angrist, J. and J. Pischke (2009) Mostly Harmless Econometrics (Links to an external site.). Princeton University
Press. Available in ebook format for immediate download, $24.49.
Shadish, W., T. Cook and D. Campbell (2001) Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal
Inference (Links to an external site.), 2nd ed. Houghton Mifflin. Will be available on 4-hour reserve at Odegaard
library, also available for purchase for about $140 (new).
I also recommend that you own an econometrics textbook that covers multiple regression and applied
topics. The reading list refers to the following textbook:
Stock, J. and M. Watson (2007) Introduction to Econometrics, 2nd ed. Addison-Wesley
however any substitute book with comparable subject coverage is acceptable. A copy of Stock and Watson will
be available on reserve at Odegaard library.
Assignments and Grading Policy
The assignments in this course consist of four problem sets, which will be distributed on a biweekly basis, one
discussion paper, a term project, and a final exam. The problem sets will each involve hands-on data analysis
using datasets I provide. The term project will not involve actual data analysis, but will require you to identify a
policy-relevant research question, a source of data which could be used to answer it, and a methodological
strategy for making a causal claim. These various assignments, along with class participation, will be weighted in
the following manner to determine your grade for the course:
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Final exam (scheduled for Tuesday, December 15th 10:30 AM – 12:20 PM) 20%
Discussion paper 10%
Problem sets (4) 10% each
Term project 25%
Class participation 5%
Date
Details
Tue Oct 6, 2015
The Logic of Causality
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Oct 13, 2015
A quick overview of randomized controlled trials (RCTs)
Discussion Paper
8:30am to 11:20am
Simple quasi-experiments I
Assignment 1
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Oct 27, 2015
Simple quasi-experiments II
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Nov 3, 2015
Instrumental variables I
Assignment 2
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Nov 10, 2015
Instrumental Variables II
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Nov 17, 2015
Regression discontinuity I
Assignment 3
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Nov 24, 2015
Regression discontinuity II
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Dec 1, 2015
Matching estimators I
Assignment 4
8:30am to 11:20am
Matching estimators II/ course summary
Term project
8:30am to 11:20am
Tue Oct 20, 2015
Tue Dec 8, 2015
Tue Dec 15, 2015
Final Exam
Final exam
The Logic of Causality
Oct 6, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
due by 8:30am
due by 8:30am
due by 8:30am
due by 8:30am
due by 8:30am
due by 8:30am
10:30am to 12:20pm
due by 12:20pm
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist and Pischke chapters 1, 2.1, 3.1, 3.4
Shadish, Cook and Campbell chapters 1-3
Recommended: review multiple regression e.g. Stock and Watson chapters 1-9, 17,
18.1-18.5
Discussion paper assignment distributed
A quick overview of randomized controlled trials (RCTs)
Oct 13, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist and Pischke chapters 2.2-2.3
Shadish, Cook and Campbell chapter 8
Stock and Watson Chapters 13.1-13.3
Krueger, Alan B. (1999) “Experimental Estimates of Education Production
Functions (Links to an external site.).” Quarterly Journal of Economics v.114 pp.497532.
Hanushek, Eric A. (1999) “Some Findings from an Independent Investigation of the
Tennessee STAR Experiment and from Other Investigations of Class Size
Effects. (Links to an external site.)” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis v.21
pp.143-163.
Kling, Jeffrey R., Jeffrey B. Liebman & Lawrence F. Katz (2007) “Experimental
Analysis of Neighborhood Effects (Links to an external site.).” Econometricav.75
pp.83-119.
Clampet-Lundquist, S. and Douglas Massey (2008) “Neighborhood Effects on
Economic Self-Sufficiency: A Reconsideration of the Moving to Opportunity
Experiment (Links to an external site.).” American Journal of Sociology, v.114
pp.107-143.
Ludwig, Jens et al. (2007) “What Can We Learn About Neighborhood Effects from
the Moving to Opportunity Experiment? (Links to an external site.)” American
Journal of Sociology v.114 pp.144-188.
Chetty, Raj, Nathaniel Hendren, and Lawrence F. Katz (2015) "The Effects of
Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to
Opportunity Experiment. (Links to an external site.)" Unpublished manuscript.
Simple quasi-experiments I
Oct 20, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist and Pischke chapters 3.2, 5
Shadish, Cook and Campbell Chapters 4-6
Stock and Watson Chapter 13.5-13.6
Simple quasi-experiments II
Oct 27, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Hoxby, Caroline M. (2000) “The Effects of Class Size On Student Achievement: New
Evidence from Population Variation (Links to an external site.).”Quarterly Journal of
Economics v.115 pp.1239-1285.
Aaronson, Daniel (1998) “Using Sibling Data to Estimate the Impact of
Neighborhoods on Children's Educational Outcomes (Links to an external site.).”
Journal of Human Resources v.33 pp.915-946.
Lalonde, Robert J. (1986) “Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training
Programs with Experimental Data. (Links to an external site.)” American Economic
Review v.76 pp.604-620.
Heckman, James J. and V. Joseph Hotz (1989) “Choosing Among Alternative
Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of
Manpower Training (Links to an external site.).” Journal of the American Statistical
Association v.84 pp.862-874.
Instrumental variables I
Nov 3, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist and Pischke Chapter 4
Stock and Watson Chapter 12
Angrist, Joshua D., Guido W. Imbens, and Donald Rubin (1996) “Identification of
Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables. (Links to an external site.)”Journal of
the American Statistical Association v.91 pp.444-455.
Heckman, James J. (1997) “Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral
Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations (Links to an external
site.).” Journal of Human Resources v.32 pp.441-462.
Angrist, Joshua D. and Guido W. Imbens (1999) “Comment on James J. Heckman,
'Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making
Program Evaluations. (Links to an external site.)'”Journal of Human Resources v.34
pp.823-827.
Heckman, James J. (1999) “Instrumental Variables: Response to Angrist and
Imbens (Links to an external site.).” Journal of Human Resources v.34 pp.828-837.
Instrumental Variables II
Nov 10, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist, Joshua D. and Alan B. Krueger (1991) “Does Compulsory School
Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings? (Links to an external site.)” Quarterly
Journal of Economics v.106 pp.979-1014.
Angrist, Joshua D. and William N. Evans (1998) “Children and Their Parents' Labor
Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size (Links to an external
site.). (Links to an external site.)” American Economic Review v.88 pp.450-577.
Hoxby, Caroline M. (2000) “Does Competition Among Public Schools Benefit
Students and Taxpayers? (Links to an external site.)” American Economic
Review v.90 pp.1209-1238.
Rothstein, Jesse (2007) “Does Competition Among Public Schools Benefit Students
and Taxpayers? Comment (Links to an external site.).” American Economic
Review v.97 pp.2026-2037.
Hoxby, Caroline M. (2007) “Does Competition Among Public Schools Benefit
Students and Taxpayers? Reply (Links to an external site.)” American Economic
Review v.97 pp.2038-.
Regression discontinuity I
Nov 17, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist and Pischke chapter 6
Shadish, Cook and Campbell Chapter 7
Thistlethwaite, Donald L. and Donald T. Campbell (1960) “Regression-Discontinuity
Analysis: An Alternative to the Ex Post Facto Experiment. (Links to an external
site.)” Journal of Educational Psychology v.51 pp.309-317.
Hahn, Jinyong, Petra Todd and Wilbert Van der Klaauw (2001) “Identification and
Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design. (Links to an
external site.)" Econometrica v.69 pp.201-209.
Imbens, Guido and Karthik Kalyanaraman (2012) “Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the
Regression Discontinuity Estimator (Links to an external site.).” Review of Economic
Studies v.79 pp.933-959.
Regression discontinuity II
Nov 24, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist, Joshua and Victor Lavy (1999) “Using Maimonides' Rule To Estimate The
Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement. (Links to an external site.)”Quarterly
Journal of Economics v.114 pp.533-575.
Bui, Sa A., Steven G. Craig, and Scott A. Imberman (2014) “Is Gifted Education a
Bright Idea? Assessing the Impact of Gifted and Talented Programs on
Students (Links to an external site.).” American Economic Journal: Economic
Policy v.6 pp.30-62.
Card, David and Lara Shore-Sheppard (2004) “Using Discontinuous Eligibility Rules
to Identify the Effects of the Federal Medicaid Expansions on Low Income
Children (Links to an external site.).” Review of Economics and Statistics v.86
pp.752-766.
Lee, David S. and David Card (2008) “Regression Discontinuity Inference with
Specification Error (Links to an external site.).” Journal of Econometricsv.142
pp.655-674.
Matching estimators I
Dec 1, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Angrist and Pischke chapter 3.3
Rosenbaum, Paul R. and Donald B. Rubin (1983) “The Central Role of the Propensity
Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects (Links to an external
site.).” Biometrika v.70 pp.41-55.
Dehejia, Rajeev H. and Sadek Wahba (2002) “Propensity Score-Matching Methods
for Nonexperimental Causal Studies. (Links to an external site.)” Review of
Economics and Statistics v.84 pp.151-161.
Heckman, James J., Hidehiko Ichimura, and Petra E. Todd (1997) “Matching As An
Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training
Programme. (Links to an external site.)” Review of Economic Studies v.64 pp.605654.
Alberto Abadie et al. (2004) “Implementing Matching Estimators for Average
Treatment Effects in Stata. (Links to an external site.)” Stata Journal v.4 pp.290-311.
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd (2005) “Does Matching Overcome LaLonde's Critique
of Nonexperimental Estimators? (Links to an external site.)” Journal of
Econometrics v.125 pp.305-353.
Dehejia, Rajeev (2005) “Practical Propensity Score Matching: A Reply to Smith and
Todd. (Links to an external site.)” Journal of Econometrics v.125 pp.355-364
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd (2005) “Rejoinder (Links to an external site.)” Journal
of Econometrics v.125 pp.365-375.
Matching estimators II/ course summary
Dec 8, 2015, 8:30am - 11:20am
Calendar PPM 512 B: Data Analysis Practicum
Location MUS 212 Details Harding, D.J. (2003) “Counterfactual Models of Neighborhood Effects: The Effect of
Neighborhood Poverty on Dropping Out and Teenage Pregnancy (Links to an external
site.).” American Journal of Sociology v.109 pp.676-719.
Jalan, Jyotsna and Martin Ravallion (2003) “Does Piped Water Reduce Diarrhea for
Children in Rural India? (Links to an external site.)” Journal of Econometrics v.112
pp.153-173.