THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE
1000
300
30
1000
June 1789 through September 2002
S&P
100
Bull Market Runs
through Autumn
S&P
Prepared for The Long Wave Analyst · (604) 643-0280 by Topline Investment Graphics
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Four Kondratieff Waves in the US
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
1
2
3
4
1789-1802
1845-1858
1896-1907
1949-1966
1803-1816
1859-1864
1908-1920
1966-1981
1816-1835
1864-1874
1921-1929
1982-2000
1835-1844
1875-1896
1930-1949
2000-2010?
10
1921-1929
100
20
HM
10
5
Homestake
Mining
Bull Market Runs
through Autumn
Bull Market Runs
through Autumn
1982-2000
Bull Market Runs
through Autumn
1864-1874
1816-1835
300
US Stock Prices
(S&P 500)
3
100
CRB
2
1
US Prices
ng
1789
US Treasury
Bond Yield
3%
1800
Summer begins (1803) with sharply
rising prices and interest rates,
which peak at summer’s end
(corresponding to War of 1812).
1844
1850
Summer begins (1859) with sharply
rising prices and interest rates,
which peak at summer’s end
(corresponding to Civil War).
1900
mer
Sum
Summ
er
1896
1982
Aaa
10%
g
2010?
rin
Aaa
Interest
Rate
Spike
T-Bond
4%
PPI
30
15%
Winter Ends
Spring Begins 1966
1908
ing
Summer
ing
Spr
PPI
Spr
i
10
Aaa Corp.
Bond Yield
Winter Ends
Spring
Begins
1921
PPI
Primary Recession
1980 after Summer Peak
2000 Winter
Begins?
r
Winte
10%
Winter Ends
Spring Begins
1859
Autumn
Winter
1803
Revolutionary
War
PPI
Primary Recession
1920 after Summer Peak
1929 Winter
Begins
Winter
PPI
Autumn
Primary Recession
1864 after Summer Peak
1875 Winter
Begins
1865
Winter
Summ
er
30
Autumn
Primary Recession
1816 after Summer Peak
1835 Winter
Begins
1817
½
T-Bond
Summer begins (1908) with
sharply rising prices and interest
rates, which peak at summer’s end
(corresponding to World War I).
Sp
Autumn
Spr
1
PPI before 1949,
CRB after
T-Bond
1949
1950
Summer begins (1966) with
sharply rising prices and interest
rates, which peak at summer’s end
(corresponding to Viet Nam War).
5%
10
4%
3%
2%
2000