Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach James Wells, Office for National Statistics Introduction This article introduces a UK measure of owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) using the net acquisitions (NA) approach, which has been produced to meet European Commission (hereon referred to as Eurostat) regulation No. 93/20131. A back series is available from Q1 2005 in an Excel file accompanying this article. Owner occupiers’ housing costs are the costs associated with owning, maintaining, and living in one’s own home. There are many methods for measuring these costs, two such methods are net acquisitions and rental equivalence. In addressing its requirements, the UK has decided that rental equivalence is its preferred measure of OOH costs for incorporation in UK consumer price inflation. This approach uses the rent paid for an equivalent house in the private sector as a proxy for the costs faced by owner occupiers’. In other words it answers the question “how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?” for an owner occupier. The Board of the UK Statistics Authority accepted the National Statistician’s recommendation to use the rental equivalence approach to measure OOH in September 2012 following a report from CPAC2, a public consultation3 and a review carried out by the National Statistician. CPIH was then launched in early 2013. To ensure comparability across member states Eurostat has chosen net acquisitions as its preferred method for including OOH costs in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices4 (HICP). The final decision whether to incorporate OOH costs (using net acquisitions) in HICP will be taken in early 2018 when Eurostat will publish a report addressing the suitability of OOH indices for integration into HICP coverage. Net acquisitions is a method for measuring OOH costs that are associated with the purchase and ongoing ownership of dwellings for own use. Net acquisitions treats a home as the purchase of a good that is part asset (the land) and part consumable (the house), plus costs associated with buying and maintaining a house; for example, self builds and renovations, repairs and maintenance, transfer costs and dwelling insurance. 1 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=uriserv:OJ.L_.2013.033.01.0014.01.ENG CPAC 2012 Annual Report; http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/development-programmes/otherdevelopment-work/consumer-prices-advisory-committee/cpac-papers/consumer-prices-advisory-committee--2012-annual-report.pdf 3 Public consultation: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations/archivedconsultations/2012/owner-occupiers-housing-costs/index.html 4 HICP is a consumer price index which is compiled according to a methodology that has been harmonised across EU countries. This is currently the same index as the CPI in the UK. 2 Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach Eurostat has named the new index OOHI, although within the UK it will be known as OOH(NA), to ensure clear distinction between the UK’s preferred measure of OOH, which uses the rental equivalence approach and is known as OOH(RE). Production of OOH(NA) follows the structure, definitions and methodology set out in two Eurostat publications; ‘Technical Manual on Owner Occupied Housing for Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices 2012’5 and ‘Methodological manual on Owner Occupied Housing Price Indices 2013’6. Background Many OOH costs are currently excluded from HICP. This is because of the practical difficulties, both in determining the most appropriate way of calculating these costs and in obtaining the necessary data to do so. Inclusion of OOH costs in HICP is recognised as a high priority by Eurostat and for many years it has been working with member states towards the development of a measure of OOH using the net acquisitions approach. Regulation 93/2013 committed member states to producing a quarterly measure of OOH using the net acquisitions approach by Q3 2014. Thereafter member states are required to produce the index within an 85 day period from the end of each quarter to which data relates. The first delivery of OOH(NA) in Q3 2014 therefore contained an index that related to the Q2 2014 period. The regulation also committed member states to producing a back series from Q1 2010. While Eurostat has no immediate plans to publish OOH(NA) following receipt of the index from member states, it has made an informal commitment to quality assure the indices by 2017. However, regulation 93/2013 does commit Eurostat to preparing a report early in 2018 that will establish the degree of compliance with regulation 93/2013 by member states and address the suitability of OOH indices for integration into HICP coverage. OOH(NA) Methods The Eurostat classification system for net acquisitions groups indices measuring different aspects of OOH costs into two classes; those related to the acquisition of dwellings, and those related to the ownership of dwellings (see Table 1 below). The ‘net’ principle in net acquisitions relates to the fact that only house sales transactions ‘net’ of those that occur between households within the OOH sector should be included. In other words, only transactions that occur between the OOH sector and other sectors should be included. “Other sectors” captures sales, either into or out of the OOH sector, by construction firms, local authorities, housing associations, private landlords, and businesses. HICP does not cover investment spending, therefore one of the major difficulties in determining how to measure OOH costs relates to separation of the capital investment element of a house purchase from the consumption expenditure element. The net acquisitions approach attempts this by treating the land component as capital investment (to exclude from the index) and the house structure as consumption expenditure (to include in the index). Eurostat acknowledges that, from a conceptual point of view, the ideal method for excluding the land component is the net/net approach, whereby prices and weights both exclude the land component. However, as many member states are unable to implement the net/net approach, due 5 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/documents_meth/OOH_HPI/Detailed_Technical_Ma nual_on_Owner-Occupied_Housing-v2.pdf 6 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/documents_meth/OOH_HPI/Methodological_manua l_referred_in_Reg_93_2013.pdf Office for National Statistics 2 Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach to a lack of available data, Eurostat requires all member states to use the net/gross (net weight, gross price) approach even if a net/net approach is feasible. Eurostat has taken this decision to ensure comparability across member states. The net acquisitions approach references three measures of works that are generally carried out by owner occupiers; minor repairs and maintenance, major repairs and maintenance and renovations. The distinction between minor and major repairs and maintenance works is explained by Eurostat using an analogy related to tenants and owners and the types of work carried out by each. Minor repairs and maintenance relates to the work a tenant might carry out on a rental property, i.e. low volume work, which does not extend the life of the dwelling or improve the dwelling compared to its original state. However, as minor repairs and maintenance is already included in HICP it is out of scope for OOH(NA). Major repairs and maintenance on the other hand, refers to the type of works only carried out by an owner of a property, i.e. works that bring a dwelling feature back to its original quality, therefore helping to extend the life of the dwelling. Renovation works is distinct from minor and major repairs and maintenance as it improves the quality of the dwelling. It involves the replacement of, or addition too, an existing feature, that improves the quality of that feature; for example, replacement of single glazed windows with double glazing. OOH(NA) component price indices Table 1: Source of prices data used in OOH(NA) Acquisition of dwellings OOH(NA) Indices Acquisition of New Dwellings (exc. Land) Self Builds & Renovations Source of Price Data House Price Index Producer Prices Index & Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Ownership of dwellings Existing Insurance Services Related to Major Repairs & Dwellings new to Connected with Acquisition Maintenance the OOH Sector the Dwelling House Price Index Retail Prices Index & a stamp duty index Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Retail Prices Index The sources of component price indices are included in Table 1 above and with the exception of the stamp duty index, are all drawn from existing ONS publications. Eurostat requires member states to use the House Price Index (HPI) to measure house prices within the ‘Acquisition of New Dwellings’ and ‘Existing Dwellings New to the OOH Sector’ components. However, HPI does not follow the full net acquisitions concept, as it includes the price of land, therefore the method that Eurostat follows is the gross/net approach (gross price/net weight). In other words it uses HPI which includes the cost of land and an expenditure weight from the National Accounts that excludes it. ‘Self Builds and Renovations’ is composed of separate materials and services indices. The materials index is composed of item level indices from the Producer Price Index that reflect the materials used for self builds and renovation works. The services index is composed of item level indices from HICP that reflect the labour costs associated with self builds and renovation works. Office for National Statistics 3 Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach ‘Services Related to Acquisition’ is composed of separate transfer costs and stamp duty indices. Transfer costs is composed of item level indices from the Retail Prices Index7 that reflect costs on estate agent fees, legal fees and home buyers surveys. The stamp duty index is constructed from HMRC stamp duty land tax rates and house sales data by price band acquired from The Land Registry. ‘Major Repairs and Maintenance’ is composed of separate materials and services indices, both of which are constructed using item level indices from HICP to reflect the materials and labour costs associated with major repairs and maintenance of a dwelling. ‘Insurance Connected with the Dwelling’ is composed of an item level index from RPI7 associated with dwelling insurance. The index relates to insurance connected with the dwelling structure only and does not include insurance related to household contents. OOH(NA) component weights The source of component expenditure weights used to compile OON(NA) are derived from the National Accounts Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE), which is outlined in Table 2 below. The relative weight of OOH(NA) components are outlined in Table 3 below. Aggregate weights are outlined in Table 4 below. Table 2: Source of weights data used in OOH(NA) Acquisition of dwellings OOH(NA) Indices Acquisition of New Dwellings (exc. Land) Self Builds & Renovations Ownership of dwellings Existing Insurance Services Related to Major Repairs & Dwellings new to Connected with Acquisition Maintenance the OOH Sector the Dwelling Source of Gross Fixed Gross Fixed No weight Weight data Capital Formation Capital Formation currently exists Household Final Household Final Household Final Consumption Consumption Consumption Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure & Gross Fixed Capital Formation As with all HICP weights, the National Accounts data relates to two years prior to the current year (the latest data available when the weights are being set) and are price updated to December of the previous year. For example, for 2014, the underlying expenditure data refer to the 2012 calendar year and are price updated to reference period December 2013. Weights have been price updated using the OOH(NA) component price indices to which each weight is associated with. Current limitations of OOH(NA) include the weight for ‘Acquisition of New Dwellings’, which includes expenditure on all newly constructed dwellings and not those specifically destined for the OOH sector as per the methodology outlined by Eurostat. In addition, a weight for ‘Existing Dwellings New to the OOH Sector’ does not exist, therefore, a zero weight is currently applied. 7 HICP and RPI use different formulae to aggregate individual price quotes into elementary aggregate indices (EAs) for individual items. Eurostat regulations effectively prohibit use of the Carli formula (arithmetic average of price relatives) in HICP, which is frequently used in RPI. Item level indices taken from RPI for use in OOH(NA) are therefore recalculated using a Jevons formula (geometric mean), which is the preferred formula for use in the UK HICP. Office for National Statistics 4 Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach Table 3: OOH(NA) component weights, parts per 100, 2005-2014* Acquisition of dwellings Ownership of dwellings Year Acquisition of New Dwellings (exc. Land) Self Builds & Renovations Existing Dwellings new to the OOH Sector Services Related to Acquisition Major Repairs & Maintenance Insurance Connected with Dwelling 2005 24.1 33.9 - 23.1 14.5 4.4 2006 27.8 32.7 - 23.0 14.4 2.1 2007 31.2 33.2 - 21.0 12.8 1.8 2008 31.3 30.7 - 24.7 11.2 2.1 2009 26.7 33.8 - 25.6 11.6 2.3 2010 25.8 39.4 - 16.8 15.4 2.6 2011 22.8 41.3 - 15.4 17.7 2.8 2012 22.4 41.1 - 17.2 16.5 2.8 2013 25.0 41.2 - 15.2 16.5 2.1 2014 26.0 39.6 - 17.7 14.6 2.1 *Derived from the UK’s National Accounts GFCF and HHFCE Table 4: OOH(NA) component aggregate weights, parts per 100, 2005-2014* Year Acquisition of Dwellings Total Ownership of Dwellings Total Total 2005 81.1 18.9 100 2006 83.5 16.5 100 2007 85.4 14.6 100 2008 86.7 13.3 100 2009 86.1 13.9 100 2010 82.0 18.0 100 2011 79.5 20.5 100 2012 80.7 19.3 100 2013 81.4 18.6 100 2014 83.3 16.7 100 *Aggregate weights composed from component weights in Table 3 above OOH(NA) and CPI series Figure 1 below shows the 12 month percentage change for OOH(NA) and its high level aggregates, ‘Acquisition of Dwellings’ and ‘Ownership of Dwellings’; Figure 2 shows the index for these components. Between Q1 2006 to Q3 2014, OOH(NA) increased by an average of 2.3%. From Q1 2006 OOH(NA) increased from 3.2% to a peak of 6.6% in Q3 2007, before falling to -5.5% in Q2 2009, following the crash in the housing market in 2008. OOH(NA) then recovered to 5.4% in Q3 2010 and subsequently experienced an average growth of 2% between Q4 2010 and Q3 2013. Since Q3 2013 OOH(NA) has started to increase again and reached 4.1% in Q3 2014. Office for National Statistics 5 Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach It can be seen that OOH(NA) closely tracks ‘Acquisition of Dwellings’ across the time series, which is due to the large weight for this component (see Table 4 above). ‘Ownership of Dwellings’ fell sharply between Q1 2011 and Q2 2013, reaching -1.7% by the end of this period. The fall in percentage change for ‘Ownership of Dwellings’ was mostly driven by a sharp decrease in the price of dwellings insurance over this period. Figure 1: OOH(NA), ‘Acquisition of Dwellings’ and ‘Ownership of Dwellings’ 12 month percentage change 2006-14 8.0 12 month percentage change 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 OOH(NA) Acquisition of dwellings Ownership of dwellings -6.0 -8.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Figure 2: OOH(NA), ‘Acquisition of Dwellings’ and ‘Ownership of Dwellings’ Indices, Q1 2005 = 100, 2005-14 135 130 125 Index 120 115 110 OOH(NA) Acquisition of dwellings Ownership of dwellings 105 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Office for National Statistics 6 Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs using the Net Acqusitions approach Next Steps and Future Developments Next Steps Eurostat received the first delivery of OOH(NA) in Q3 2014. Regulation 93/2013 commits ONS to delivering quarterly indices within an 85 day period from the end of each quarter to which the data relates. ONS will make data delivered to Eurostat available to UK users via its website, in line with the timings stipulated by 93/2013. Although Eurostat has only made an informal commitment to quality assure OOH(NA) by 2017, 93/2013 commits it to preparing a report early in 2018 that will establish the degree of compliance with 93/2013 by member states and address the suitability of OOH indices for integration into HICP coverage. Future development In the future construction output price indices published by The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) could be used to replace PPI and CPI item level indices currently used to construct the ‘Renovations and Self Builds’ and ‘Major Repairs and Maintenance’ price indices components of OOH(NA). In 2011 ONS, in conjunction with the Consumer Prices Advisory Committee (CPAC), investigated the suitability of using this index in OOH(NA). At the time it was produced under contract by Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) for BIS. This option was ruled out by CPAC8 based upon the quality, periodicity and timeliness of the indices at the time. Since this time, production of the construction output series has been re-tendered and awarded to a company called AECOM, which is committed to developing the indices in line with user requirements. In July 2014 BIS held a user consultation9 to gather feedback on user requirements. Results from the consultation are currently being analysed and will be published in due course. ONS’s Prices Division provided feedback to the consultation in line with a view to including the indices in OOH(NA) at some point in the future. 8 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/development-programmes/other-development-work/consumerprices-advisory-committee/cpac-papers/cpac-papers---march-2011-meeting.zip 9 https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/construction-price-and-cost-indices-methodological-changes Office for National Statistics 7
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