National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, NCDR
The Inundation Risk Map
in the South-western Taiwan
NCDR Climate Change Team
(Y.M. Chen, C.H. Chang, Y.L. Kuo, etc.)
2009/3/11
NCKU
Presentation outline
‡ Introduction of the project
– Background, Topics, Team work, Schedule
‡ Method of risk map
– Framework
– Process
– Map calculation: rainfall index, inundation index, land
subsidence index, population, socio-economic
vulnerability index (SVI, HDI)
‡ Future works
– Wind damage index
– Japan MRI/JMA high resolution AGCM
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Extreme Heavy Rainfall Typhoon Events
Frequency Trend in Decade
RAVE(95%)
RTP5(95%)
RMHR(95%)
The frequency of extreme typhoon rainfall during 2000~2006 period is significantly higher than the 1970~1999 period
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Topics of the Climate Change Project
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Climate Change Project in NCDR—
Multi-disciplinary collaboration team work
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Goal and Schedule
To Identify the Disaster Vulnerability.
To build the Risk Map for climatic and environmental change
To Support the Adaptation Policy
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Research method- hazard, exposure and vulnerability
Risk = Hazard ⋅ Population ⋅ Vulnerability
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The Risk Map build-up Process: ex. Inundation Disaster
Inundation Hazard Map
Climate Change Scenario
A. NOW
•Model
•Index •Inundation Potential Map
C. Sea level Rise
Projection
Recent Socio –
economic Vulnerability
Adaptation Capability
Future Socio –
economic Vulnerability …..
E. R+S+L
•Mapping
Exposure
(population)
B. Raifall
D. Land Sebsidence Vulnerabilty and Risk Map
B, C, D, B+D, B+C+D, …
Flood Disaster Risk Map
The Mapping method by GIS
Case study：South-western
Taiwan
Hazard
(Rainfall Index)
Expoaure
(Population Index)
Vulnerability
(Environmental、Social Index)
Disaster Risk
1.Vulnerability
Inundation × Land subsidence × Socioeconomic vulnerability
2.Risk map
(Inundation × Land Subsidence × Socioeconomic vulnerability) × Rainfall (hazard
occurrence) × Population (exposure)
3. Socio-economic vulnerability
Social Vulnerability Index for Flood (SVI)
Human Development Index (HDI)
Adaptation Pllicy
Rainfall Index：
Daily Rainfall >350mm Probability Map
Inundation Index
•Re-categorize NCDR’s potential
inundation map to produce inundation
index (town/village level)
Yulin
Chiayi
Inundation Index
Building Land Subsidence Index
The contour of accumulated land subsidence (Yun-lin, 1998~2007))
Land Subsidence Index：
Subsidence rate(cm/yr)
Exposure: Population (2007)
Social Vulnerability Index for Flood
Factors
Variables
Research variables
Maximum loss of households property (potentially)
House
House value
Tax
---
Property
Electronic equipment, DVD,
radio, vehicle etc.
Household property estimate
Loss in the past
--
--
Household resistance to flood disaster (self-protection of individual)
Gender
Female
Percent of female population
Dependent population
Handicapped person
Living alone elderly
Single-parent households
Vagrants
Percent of handicapped people
Percent of living alone elderly
---
Risk perception
Risk perception
(age)
Risk perception
（percent of people over age 65 &
under age 14）
（frequency of floods）
（percent of females)
(frequency of floods)
(Female)
Disaster mitigation
measures
--
--
Selecting the Social Vulnerability Factors
Factors
variables
Research variables
Household self-recovery ability (resilience and adjustment)
Financial capability
Income、savings
Percent of low income
households
Percent of disposable income
Social support
Social network
Community organization
-Percent of joined community
activities
Insurance
Flood and typhoon insurance
--
Adjustment
risk perception (Aftermath)
New flood mitigation measures
---
SVI
Human Development Index, HDI
HDI concepts
A long and
healthy life
Original indicators
Life expectancy
at birth
Taiwan HDI
1 / death rate
1. Life expectancy: no county data
2. The death rate consists aging factors
Knowledge
Adult literacy rate
Enrolment ratio
Ratio of higher
educated population
over 15-years old
Standard of
living
Per capita GDP
Per capita
disposable income
1. % of maximum and minimum
2. The higher HDI the lower SE vul.
3. Town HDI: extrapolate by population density
Source: UNDP, 2007, Human Development Report 2007/2008- Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world
HDI
Inundation vulnerability map
- inundation * subsidence * HDI
Inundation risk map
- inundation * subsidence * precipitation *
population * HDI)
Current Vulnerability and Risk Map
Heavy Rainfall
Inundation
Inundation Risk Map
Land subsidence
Exposure
SE vul.
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Future Work
‡ To Consider the sea level rise and wind damage index
factors under the climate change projection like OECD
report.
‡ To Access the effect of Climate Change on sea surface
wind and typhoon based on the Japan MRI/JMA high
resolution AGCM.
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Description of scenarios used to analyse the 100 year flood event;
CB – or current baseline ; FB –future baseline, 2070s)
OECD
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Extreme event projection by very high resolution
atmospheric models
MRI / JMA / AESTO
AtmosphereOcean model
High-resolution global
atmospheric model
180km mesh
Atmos
phere
20km
Predicted
SST
100-50km mesh
Atmos
phere
Boundary
condition
Boundary
condition
Future
A1B Scenario
Present
SST=Sea Surface
Temperature
5km, 1km mesh
mesh
SST
SST
Ocean
Regional cloud
resolving model by
nesting
Near
Future
SST
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1979-2003 2015-2039
Year
2075-2099
Use of Japanese high-resolution model output
– Model Verification on past climate
change/variability in Taiwan and East-Asian
Monsoon Region, especially the extreme weather
and climate variability.
– Diagnostics of the projected climate change in
Taiwan and East-Asian Monsoon Region.
– Dynamic Downscaling to 5-Km resolution using
regional and cloud-resolving models (e.g., WRF,
CReSS)
– Statistical Downscaling to the specific river basin or
watershed for water-related disaster research
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Thank you for your attention