Credit Update
February 2017
Contents
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3
Crédit Agricole Group Q4-16 & 2016 Highlights
MTP « Strategic Ambition 2020 »
Financial Management
Risks
French Housing Market
Crédit Agricole Home Loan SFH
Crédit Agricole Public Sector SCF
Appendices
Contact list
Credit Update – February 2017
SECTION 1:
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP
Q4-16 & 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
4
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP Q4-16 & 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
Key messages
Crédit
Crédit Agricole
Agricole Group*
Group*
Results
Results
&
& financial
financial
solidity
solidity
 Good level of activity in all components: networks, businesses and large customers
 2016 NIGS: €5.4bn stated excluding goodwill impairment, €6.4bn underlying(1)
 Financial solidity at top level and further strengthened: fully-loaded CET1 ratio at 14.5%
* Crédit Agricole S.A. and 100% of Regional Banks
Crédit Agricole S.A.
 Acceleration of growth: agreement signed in view of the acquisition of Pioneer Investments by Amundi and
Activity
& revenues
strong commercial momentum in all businesses
 Underlying revenues(1): +10.9% Q4/Q4
 Strong increase in Asset gathering and Large customers business lines, first recurring effects of Eureka
 Q4 stated NIGS excluding goodwill impairment: €782m; underlying(1) €904m, +52.6% Q4/Q4;
2016 underlying €3,137m, +22.8% 2016/2015
Results
Financial
solidity
Dividend




Strong increase in businesses’ underlying NIGS: +46.4% Q4/Q4, contribution of all businesses up
Expenses well under control: improvement of 6.6 pts of underlying cost/income ratio(1) Q4/Q4 to 65.4%
Risk well managed in all businesses: cost of credit risk 41bps
Significant specific items in Q4: impairment of goodwill (-€491m), deferred tax revaluation (-€161m) and
issuer spread (+€103m before tax)
 Financial strength confirmed at high level despite the increase in interest rates: fully-loaded CET1 ratio 12.1%
 Reminder: target of 11% at end-2019, i.e. 250bps above the distribution restriction threshold (8.50% at 1/1/19)(2 )
 Dividend of €0.60 in cash for the year 2016(3), stable in 2016 vs. 2015 but without a scrip option ie non dilution
effect ; from 2017onwards, pay-out ratio of 50% and intention to maintain the dividend versus 2016
(1)
See slide 79 of this Credit Update and slides 47 and 48 of the Fourth quarter & Full year 2016 results Presentation (Crédit Agricole S.A.) for further details on specific items
(2) Pro forma Pillar2 requirement (P2R) as notified by the ECB
(3) To be proposed to the shareholders’ meeting in May 2017, detachment date: 29 May 2017, payment date: 31 May
5
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP Q4-16 & 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
Key figures
Crédit Agricole Group
Stated Net Income Group Share (NIGS)
excluding goodwill impairment
Goodwill impairment
Underlying Net Income Group Share(1)
Fully-loaded CET 1 ratio
(1)
6
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Q4-16
2016
Q4-16
2016
€1,211m
€5,365m
€782m
€4,032m
-22.6% Q4/Q4
-11.2% 2016/2015
-11.3% Q4/Q4
+14.7% 2016/2015
-€540m
-€540m
-€491m
-€491m
€1,648m
€6,353m
€904m
€3,137m
+9.5% Q4/Q4
+3.1% 2016/2015
+52.6% Q4/Q4
+22.8% 2016/2015
14.5%
Cf. slide 79 of this Credit Update and slides 47 and 48 of the Fourth quarter & Full year 2016 results Presentation (Crédit Agricole S.A.) for further details on specific items
Credit Update – February 2017
12.1%
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP Q4-16 & 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
Significant specific items items in Q4-16(1)
 Impairment of LCL Group goodwill: -€540m
Annual review of goodwill, comparing carrying amount to value in use
Impairment related to the low interest rate environment that led to massive home loan renegotiations in 2016 which
confirm LCL’s commercial position despite their negative impact on revenues
Non tax deductible
No impact on capital ratios or dividend
 Adjustment of deferred tax value to the new tax rate in France as of 2020: -€453m
Decrease in normal corporate tax rate in France from 34.4% to 28.9% as of 2020 according to the Finance law of 2017
Requirement to revalue deferred tax assets and liabilities (DTA/DTL) maturing in 2020 or beyond at new rate
Net charge of -€453m (net DTA impairment) under ‘Corporate income tax’, allocated to the various business lines
 Other specific items: +€15m in net income Group share
Cariparma Group adjustment plan: -€51m (-€30m in NIGS)
Issuer spread (+ €83m before tax, + €52m in NIGS), DVA running (-€2m), loan hedges (-€1m) and Eureka (-€4m),
i.e. + €45m in NIGS
 Total impact on NIGS: -€977m
(1)
7
cf. slide 79 of this Credit Update and slides 47 and 48 of the Fourth quarter & Full year 2016 results Presentation (Crédit Agricole S.A.) for further details on specific items
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP Q4-16 & 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
Underlying net income Group share up +3.1% in 2016; up +9.5% Q4/Q4
Change in Group Crédit Agricole underlying net income Group share (€m)
 Changes 2016/2015
+3.1%
6,043
2015 stated
(121)
Specific
items**
6,353
6,164
2015
underlying
(499)
(9)
70
129
256
241
Regional
Banks
Retail
Asset
gathering
SFS
Large
customers
Corporate
centre
2016
underlying
(987)
5,365
Specific
items**
2016 stated*
* 2016 stated NIGS excluding goodwill impairment charge for -€540m in 2016
** See detail of specific items on slide 79 of this Credit Update
 Changes Q4-16/Q4-15
Q4-15 stated
59
Specific
items**
1,648
1,506
Q4-15
underlying
(237)
68
25
190
35
60
Regional
Banks
Retail
Asset
gathering
SFS
Large
customers
Corporate
centre
Q4-16
underlying
(437)
1,211
Specific
items**
T4-16 stated*
* Q4-16 stated NIGS excluding goodwill impairment charge for -€540m in 2016
** See detail of specific items on slide 79 of this Credit Update
8
Regional Bank revenues
notably affected by the
Eureka transaction (offset at
Corporate centre level) and
HPSP provision
 Q4/Q4: same trends as
Crédit Agricole S.A.,
except Switch 1 and HPSP
provision effects
+9.5%
1,564
 2016/2015: good increase
of underlying NIGS at
+3.1%
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP Q4-16 & 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
Good commercial momentum in all business lines
NETWORKS
Regional Banks
LCL
Cariparma
Home loans
+6.5%
Home loans
+4.8%
Home loans
Consumer credit
+9.3%
Loans to corporates
+8.1%
Loans to large corporates +3.7%
Demand deposits
+15.8%
Demand deposits
+15.3%
Off-B/S customer assets
+6.4%
+7.8%
Growth in outstandings December/December
Specialised financial services
 Consumer finance origination:
+9.4% Q4/Q4
Asset management (Amundi)
€1,083bn, +9.9% Dec/Dec
 AUM:
Insurance
 P&C :
+661,000 new contracts Dec/Dec, > 12m at end-16
* Including death & disability
9
 Market share - credit: 6%*, +0.6 pt
2016/2015
 Issuer leader on the French market for
Corporate bonds: 10%*** market share
 Market share – investment banking:
 France share issuer: 8.9%**, +2.2 pts
Dec/Dec
 Strong growth in M&A (French clients):
27.1%***, ranking up from 14th to 4th
€269bn*, +3.5% Dec/Dec
 Life AUM:
Large customers
Credit Update – February 2017
* Bookrunner for bond issues in € – global (Source: Thomson Financial) at
31/12/16
** Bookrunner for convertible bond issues – France (Source: Thomson
Financial) at 31/12/16
*** M&A advisors (French clients) (Source: Thomson Financial) at 31/12/16
SECTION 2:
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION
2020 »
10
Credit Update – February 2017
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION 2020 »
Four priorities, concrete progress one year later
FOUR PRIORITIES
FOUR PRIORITIES OF THE MTP: concrete breakthroughs
1
2
2
11
1
Simplify Crédit Agricole
group’s capital structure
2
Roll out an ambitious
Customer Project, enhanced
by the digital revolution
 Achieved early August 2016
 Building of a new brand territory
 Acceleration of digital transformation
33
Strengthen the Group’s
growth momentum in its
core business lines
 Project of creditor insurance internalisation
 Launch of employee retirement plans offer
 Agreement signed in view of the acquisition of Pioneer
Investments
4
Transform the Group to
sustainably improve our
industrial efficiency
 Launch of all cost reduction plans
 Achievement of first IT migrations
Credit Update – February 2017
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION 2020 »
Crédit Agricole Group – A customer-focused universal banking model
Underlying 2016 NIGS by business line
(excluding Corporate Centre) in %
 Simplification of Group
Operation Eureka completed in Q3-16
Underlying NIGS (excluding Corporate Centre):
€6,353m, +3,1% 2016/2015
Business model still mainly focused on retail customers
Recurring improvement of Corporate Centre
 The Regional Banks at the heart of the organisation
Asset servicing
1%
Large Leasing &
Factoring
customers 2%
17%
Consumer
Finance
6%
Support to the financial solidity of Crédit Agricole S.A.
Major distribution channel for the businesses of
Crédit Agricole S.A
Significant vehicles of synergy developments, in line with the MTP
 Crédit Agricole S.A.: a stable, diversified and
profitable business mix
Good diversification of the business lines’ contribution to net
income Group share (excluding Corporate Centre), a
guarantee of stability in the future
RoNEs(1), after tax and allocated AT1 costs, in line with the
targets announced in the MTP in March 2016 for all business
lines
Retail
banking
51%
CIB
16%
RBs
40%
Insurance
17%
Asset
Management
6%
Specialised
financial
services
8%
LCL
7%
Asset
gathering
24%
Wealth
International
management retail banking
1%
4%
Underlying 2016 RoNE by business line
and 2019 target in %( 2)
After tax and AT1 costs allocated to business lines
>25%
2019 target
>16%
>16%
>13%
>11%
>10%
22.2%
Asset gathering
(1) RoNE:
(2)
12
11.9%
11.7%
11.7%
9.7%
8.6%
LCL
Cariparma
SFS
Large
customers
RoTE
underlying
Crédit Agricole
S.A.
Return on Normalised Equity, calculation method detailed on slide 78 of the Fourth quarter & Full year 2016 results Presentation (Crédit Agricole S.A.)
After restatement of AT1 coupons, i.e. -0.6 point for Asset gathering (Insurance only), -1.2 point for LCL, -1.1 point for Specialised financial services and -0.8 point for Large customers
Credit Update – February 2017
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION 2020 »
A major growth transaction: acquisition of Pioneer Investments(1)
 A major strategic acquisition for Amundi and Crédit Agricole S.A.
Acquisition by Amundi of 100% of Pioneer Investments,(2) Unicredit's asset management subsidiary, for €3,545m
Strengthens Amundi's position as leading European asset manager, with no.1 ranking in France and Top 3 in Italy
and Austria, and acquisition of a strong position in Germany and of additional expertise
Reinforces relative contribution of Retail and medium/long-term assets
Strong synergy potential – €180m before tax – thanks to Amundi's diversified model and industrial platform
 … perfectly in line with the MTP targets…
Strengthening of asset management business in line with Amundi's diversified business model
In line with acquisition criteria of the Group and Amundi (10% ROI over 3 years)
Increased presence in Italy, the Group's second domestic market
 … and value-creating for Crédit Agricole S.A.
Crédit Agricole Group's target holding in Amundi: 70% (75.7%(3) today) through disposal of subscription rights
in the framework of Amundi’s rights issue, in order to improve the free float and Amundi's share price
Impact on fully-loaded CET1 ratio -63bps(4) pro forma at 31/12/2016
Estimated accretive impact on earnings per share: +7%(5) in 2019 based on MTP targets
(1)
Subject to the usual regulatory authorisations; transaction expected to be finalised in second quarter of 2017
In the rest of this presentation, references to Pioneer Investments exclude its Polish operations
(3) Crédit Agricole S.A.: 74.1%
(4) For Crédit Agricole Group: -37bps
(5) Accretion calculated on the basis of estimated 2017 EPS including entire full-year impacts of synergies, excluding adjustments related to amortisation of intangible assets and
integration costs. Crédit Agricole S.A.'s 2017 EPS is based on consensus earnings of €3,267m, from which €466m of interest on AT1 instruments should be deducted
(2)
13
Credit Update – February 2017
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION 2020 »
Customer project: « A whole bank just for you »
ORGANISATION DISTRIBUTION RELATIONSHIP
Be true partners for
our customers
The Full
multichannel
bank
100% human
& 100% digital
Bring all the expertise
of a universal bank to
each customer
The Customer
relationship
bank
The Customerfocused
universal bank
The banking partner that makes
its customers’ lives and projects simpler and easier
14
Credit Update – February 2017
SECTION 3:
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
15
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group – Fully-loaded CET1 ratio 14.5%
 Fully-loaded CET1 ratio(1): 14.5% at 31/12/2016
Solvency ratio(1) (Basel 3)
Capital generation thanks to high level of retained
earnings: +22bps
Impact of unrealised gains: -11bps (including -2bps of
tax rate forecast change)
13.7%
14.4%
14.5%
15.3%
15.8%
16.1%
14.5%
15.4%
15.5%
Stable risk-weighted assets (+2bps)
CET1 ratio far above MDA restriction applicable as at
01/01/2019 at 9.5%(2)
19.3%
19.2%
19.3%
18.1%
18.5%
18.6%
 Phased-in total capital ratio(1): 19.3% at 31/12/2016
 Phased-in leverage ratio(3): 5.7% at 31/12/2016
Change in RWAs – Dec. 15 to Dec. 16 (€Bn)
7
43
521
8
46
Dec 15 Sept 16 Dec 16
Fully-loaded CET1
 Conglomerate ratio: >170%
509
Dec 15 Sept 16 Dec 16
Dec 15 Sept 16 Dec 16
Phased-in Tier 1
Phased-in total ratio
o/w Fully-loaded Tier 1
o/w Fully-loaded total ratio
Change in fully-loaded CET 1 ratio(1) – Sept to December 16
521
8
45
+22bp
-11bp
+1bp
Market risk
Operationnal risk
(1)
459
467
468
Dec 15
Sept 16
Dec 16
Credit risk
Sept 16
Retained earnings
after distribution
AFS reserves
Other
(EP/Change)
Including Q4-16 results
proforma 2019 requirements notified by the ECB
As defined in the Delegated Act. Assumption of non-exemption of exposures related to the centralisation of CDC deposits, according to our understanding of information obtained from the ECB
(2)P2R
(3)
14.5%
14.4%
16
Credit Update – February 2017
Dec 16
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Resilient organic earnings generation capacity
RWAs (€bn)
522
509
495
464 (1)
Retained earnings(2) / RWAs
534
521
1.2%
1.0%
477
Dec. 11 Dec. 12 Dec. 13 Dec. 14 Dec. 15 Dec. 16
Dec. 19 f
Net income Group share (€bn)
(excluding goodwill impairment)
Dec. 12
Dec. 13
5.2
-0.6 (1)
Dec. 12
(1)
17
4.9
0.9%
0.9%
Dec. 14
Dec. 15
Dec. 16
Dec. 19 f
Retained earnings(2) / Net income Group share
95%
>7.2
6.0
0.9%
93%
89%
5.4
84%
79%
Not
Relevant
Dec. 13
Dec. 14
Dec. 15
Incl. impact of the sale of Emporiki
Dec. 16
Dec. 19 f
Dec. 12
(2)
Dec. 13
Dec. 14
Dec. 15
Dec. 16
Dec. 19 f
Prudential definition of retained earnings; no impact of goodwill impairment
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group – TLAC & MREL ratios
 TLAC ratio at 31/12/2016
 MREL ratio at 31/12/2016
20.3% excl. eligible senior preferred debt vs. minimum
requirement at end-2019 of 19.5%(1) incl. eligible senior
preferred debt
On track to meet the Medium Term Plan target of 22% excl.
eligible senior preferred debt by end-2019
The Group intends to protect its existing senior preferred
bondholders and to continue to issue non-preferred senior
debt
8.5%(3) excl. potentially eligible senior preferred debt >1
year, exceeding the Group’s commitment of 8% by end-2016
Level reached allowing potential recourse to the Single
Resolution Fund (SRF), subject to decision of the Resolution
Authority
Denominator potentially converging with that of TLAC ratio,
based on RWA
35%
Excl. 2.5% of eligible senior
preferred debt
15%
Potentially
eligible senior
preferred
debt > 1 year
22.0%
19.5% (2)
Systemic Buffer 1.0%
2.5%
Conservation buffer
20.3%
5.0%
4.8%
8.0%
Tier 2
AT1
2.0%
1.5%
CET1 (Pillar 1)
4.5%
2019
Requirements (1)
Senior non
4.8% pref., T2, T1
1.0%
1.0%
Additional TLAC
Senior non
pref., T2, T1
under Basel 2
15%
AT1
under Basel 2
1.0%
AT1
6.3%
14.5%
Estimate as % of
RWA at 31/12/16
16.0%
CET1
Targeted structure
in 2019
14.5%
8.0%
8.5%
MREL possibly
allowing recourse
to SRF (3)
Estimate as %
of prudential B/S
at 31/12/16
CET1
Estimate as %
of RWA
at 31/12/16
(1) Assuming that the current overall SREP requirement (Pillar 1, Pillar 2 and capital conservation buffer) remains unchanged over the period. As a reminder, the ECB performs an analysis of the SREP requirements on at
least an annual basis and may impose additional requirements at any time. This hypothesis should not be construed as any form of guarantee in respect of the expected CET1 ratios and buffers going forward. It
corresponds to the position of the EBA and the ECB, and to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s interpretation of the relevant texts. According to the FSB TLAC final Term Sheet, the minimum TLAC ratio requirement will increase to
21.5% in 2022
(2) Countercyclical buffer set at 0%
(3) Estimate based on Crédit Agricole S.A.’s understanding of texts; recourse to SRF subject to decision of the Resolution Authority
18
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Strong solvency and TLAC position
 Current and 2019 requirements(1)(2) already fulfilled
 CET1 ratio far above MDA restriction applicable as at 01/01/2019 (2), at 9.5% for Crédit Agricole Group and 8.5% for Crédit
Agricole S.A.
 No need to issue new AT1 instruments over the Medium Term Plan horizon(3 )
CET1 ratio
Tier 1 ratio
TLAC ratio
Fully-loaded
at 31/12/16
Fully-loaded at
31/12/16
Crédit Agricole Group
Excl. 2.5% of eligible senior pref. debt
15.5%
2019 target at 16.0%
2019 requirements
12.1%
8.5%
13.9%
14.5%
(1) (2)
2019 requirements
1.8%
1.5%
1.0%
1.5%
P2R add-on
1.5%
2.5%
Conservation buffer
2.5%
4.5%
CET1 (Pillar 1)
4.5%
Crédit Agricole
S.A.
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Crédit Agricole
Crédit Group
Agricole Group
Crédit Agricole Group’s CET1 ratio is well above
SREP requirement and Crédit Agricole S.A.’s
CET1 ratio is managed above 11%
(1) (2)
of which
AT1
19.5%
Systemic buffer
11.0%
10.0%
9.5%
Systemic buffer
1.0%
Conservation buffer
1.0%
2.5%
20.3%
22.0%
5.0%
4.8%
1.0%
Senior non
pref., T2, T1
under
Basel 2
1.0%
1.5%
AT1
Additional TLAC 8.0%
14.5%
12.1%
8.5%
9.5%
Tier 2 2.0%
AT1 1.5%
14.5%
16.0%
CET1
CET1 (Pillar 1) 4.5%
Crédit Agricole
S.A.
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Crédit Agricole
Crédit Group
Agricole Group
AT1 ratio is calibrated to fulfill 1.5% bucket for
Credit Agricole S.A., whereas Credit Agricole
Group uses 0.5% of its excess of CET1
2019
Estimate at
requirements 31/12/16
(1)
Targeted
structure in
2019
2019 minimum TLAC requirement already met
excluding eligible senior debt
Targeted structure in 2019 includes a growing
contribution from CET1
(1) Assuming that the current overall SREP requirement (Pillar 1, Pillar 2 and capital conservation buffer) remains unchanged over the period. As a reminder, the ECB performs an analysis of the SREP requirements on at
least an annual basis and may impose additional requirements at any time. This hypothesis should not be construed as any form of guarantee in respect of the expected CET1 ratios and buffers going forward. It
corresponds to the position of the EBA and the ECB, and to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s interpretation of the relevant texts. According to the FSB TLAC final Term Sheet, the minimum TLAC ratio requirement will increase to
21.5% in 2022
(2) Pillar 2 Requirement (“P2R”) proforma 2019 notified by the ECB
(3) As per Medium-Term Plan assumptions
19
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Maximum Distributable Amount
Buffers above distribution restriction thresholds at 31/12/16
Distributable items at 31/12/16
Pro forma under 2017 ECB SREP methodology(1)
EUR 38.1bn(2)
Crédit Agricole Group
Buffer(3) to mandatory coupon restrictions
EUR
32bn+
Proforma buffer
as at 31/12/16
EUR 35bn
9.50%
8.50%
7.875%
7.25%
7.25%
1.25%
1.25%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
31/12/2019
01/01/2017
31/12/2017
31/12/2018
31/12/2019
7.75%
0.50%
7.75%
0.50%
1.25%
1.25%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
01/01/2017
31/12/2017
31/12/2018
0.75%
1.875%
EUR
7.5bn+
Proforma buffer
as at 31/12/16
EUR 15bn
1.00%
8.625%
G-SIB Buffer
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Buffer(3) to mandatory coupon restrictions
2.50%
Capital Conservation Buffer
No G-SIB
buffer at
Crédit
Agricole
S.A. level
Pillar
P2R2 buffer
Minimum CET1 ratio
1.875%
2.50%
Pillar 2 CET1 requirement
(1) We take into account the planned evolution of the SREP methodology in 2017, as it was notified by the ECB, for MDA calculation.
(2) Including reserves of €25.9bn and share issue premium of €12.2bn at 31/12/2016.
(3) Based on reported CRR/CRD4 phased-in CET1 capital and RWAs at 31/12/2016, for current buffer, and based on the MTP targets for 2019. In our calculation, the overall SREP requirement (Pillar 1, Pillar 2 Requirement, capital
conservation buffer, G-SIB buffer) does not take into account the countercyclical buffer (not material) and it is supposed to remain constant over the period. As a reminder the ECB performs an analysis of the SREP requirement at least on
an annual basis, and may impose additional requirements at any time. These hypotheses should not be construed as any form of guidance in respect of the expected CET1 ratios and buffers going forward. They correspond to the position
of the EBA and the ECB, and to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s interpretation of the relevant texts. Pillar 2 guidance (P2G) not taken into account as P2G is not expected to affect distribution thresholds, based on current ECB interpretation. TLAC
constraint (applicable only at Crédit Agricole Group level starting in 2019) is not taken into account in buffer calculation.
20
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Key Liquidity Indicators
Regulatory
requirement
Crédit Agricole
S.A
70% at 01/01/2016
At 31/12/16
ratio
2016-2019
MTP Target
>110%
~110%
LCR: the aim of the Group is to secure its
compliance with regulatory requirements by
maintaining a buffer of a magnitude of 10%
 The Group’s financial structure provides for
a surplus of stable resources covering LCR
needs (at 100%) of commercial activities.
The Group intends to maintain this structure
through the Medium-Term Plan
LCR
Crédit Agricole
Group
NSFR1
Crédit Agricole
Group
SRP2
Crédit Agricole
Group
100% from
01/01/2018
100% from
01/01/2018
>110%
~110%
>100%
>100%
€111bn
>€100bn
NSFR: publication of a legislative proposal by the
European Commission
 NSFR is part of the CRR2/CRD5 legislative
proposal which was published on 23 November
2016
 The European Commission has, overall,
followed the conclusions of the EBA report that
was published on 18 December 2015, even if
some favorable changes have been made (e.g.
less asymmetrical treatment for repos/reverse
repos and 0% Required Stable Funding for
HQLA 1 )
 These proposals still remain penalising for ST
market activities as well as derivative activities
(add-on)
 Moreover, the Commission proposes an
application on both individual and consolidated
scopes (but with a possible symmetrical
treatment for intragroup subject to the
supervisor’s approval)
1. Calculation based on our understanding of the 18 December, 2015 EBA text 2. Stable Resources Position: surplus of long-term funding sources
21
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group – Liquidity reserves
Liquidity reserves at 31/12/16 (€bn)
247
47
192
Reverse repos & other ST
Securities portfolio
20
132
Valuation
gains/losses
& haircuts
Assets eligible to Central Banks after ECB
haircut
(immédiate access)
18
Self-securitisations eligible to Central Banks
19
Other non-HQLA securities(1)
132
HQLA(1) (High Quality Liquid Assets)
securities portfolio
81
ST debt net of Central Bank
deposits
50
Central Bank deposits
40
o/w cash (€3bn)
o/w mandatory reserves (€6bn)
31
9
Cash balance
sheet assets
31
Central Bank deposits
(excl. cash and mandatory reserves)
Liquidity
reserves
31
Central Bank deposits
(excl. cash and mandatory reserves)
ST debt
ST debt net of Central Bank deposits covered 264% by HQLA securities
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) at 31/12/16 exceeding 110% at both Crédit Agricole Group
and Crédit Agricole S.A.
(1)
22
Available liquid market securities after haircut
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group – Liquidity
 Surplus of stable funds > €100bn at 31/12/16, in accordance with Medium Term Plan target
Ratio of stable funding to LT assets unchanged at 113%
ASSETS
LIABILITIES
1,058
1,085
Central Bank deposits (o/w cash &
mandatory reserves)
Interbank assets
Reverse repos (net) & other ST
Securities portfolio
Customer-related trading assets
45
10
28
135
40
13
20
132
Customer assets
738
768
50
31/12/15
51
31/12/16
Tangible & intangible assets
52
Surplus :
€111bn
1,085
1,058
94
110
179
61
699
ST market funds
174
LT market funds(1)
669
Customer-related funds
113
105
Equity & similar items
31/12/16
31/12/15
In €bn
(1)
23
LT market funds include T-LTRO drawings
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group – Diversified market funding sources
 Crédit Agricole Group
Highly diversified funding mix by type of instrument, investor base
and targeted geographical area
•
Market debt (1) at 31/12/ 2016: €33.1bn issued by Group issuers
•
Moreover, the Group issued €7.4bn in its retail networks (Regional Banks,
LCL, Cariparma)
2016 MLT senior + sub. market issues - Crédit Agricole Group
Breakdown by issuer: €33.1bn at 31/12/2016
EFL
2%
Crédit
Agricole
Assurances
3%
CA-CF
23%
 Crédit Agricole S.A.
Crédit
Agricole S.A.
46%
2016 MLT market funding programme (senior and subordinated debt)
108% completed (as a reminder, 2016 programme of €14bn)
•
Senior preferred debt: €12.2bn eq. (EUR, USD, JPY, CHF, AUD), o/w
•
•
•
•
•
EMTN: €2.9bn eq., 6 and 10 years
USMTN: $1.4bn (€1.2bn eq.), 5 years
Covered bonds: €6.9bn eq., 5, 7, 10 and 15 years
Samurai: JPY92.4bn (€0.8bn eq.), 5, 7 and 10 years
Subordinated and senior non-preferred debt: €2.9bn eq. (USD, JPY, EUR)
•
Additional Tier 1: $1.25bn (€1.1bn eq.)
•
Tier 2 Samurai: JPY37.7bn (€0.3bn eq.)
•
Senior non-preferred: €1.5bn
CACIB
21%
Cariparma
5%
2016 MLT senior + sub. market issues - Crédit Agricole S.A.
Breakdown by segment: €15.1bn at 31/12/2016
Senior: €12.2bn (average maturity: 7.9 years; spread vs. mid-swap: 34.3bps)
2017 MLT market funding programme set at €16bn (€11.5bn of
senior preferred debt and €4.5bn of subordinated and senior nonpreferred debt), 38% completed at 13/02/2017
•
Senior preferred debt: €3.9bn
•
•
•
(1)
24
Subordinated
and senior
non-preferred
issues
19%
Covered
issues
46%
EMTN: €1bn, 7 years
Covered bonds: €2.9bn eq., 8, 15 and 20 years
Senior non-preferred debt $2.3bn (€2.2bn)
Excluding T-LTRO drawdowns, which are nonetheless classified in LT market funding
Credit Update – February 2017
Senior
preferred
issues
35%
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Success of new senior non-preferred debt issues
 Crédit Agricole S.A.: No. 1 senior non-preferred debt issuer in EUR and USD
13/12/2016: €1.5bn 10-year issue (order book €5.1bn)
03/01/2017: $1.3bn 5-year dual tranche issue and $1bn 10-year issue (order books $5.3bn)
Issue ratings: Baa2 (Moody’s) / BBB+ (S&P) / A (Fitch Ratings)
 Created by the Sapin 2 law of 11/12/2016, senior non-preferred debt issuance allows us to
improve the Group's financial profile and protect Crédit Agricole S.A.'s issuer ratings
improve the Group's TLAC ratio (impact of all senior non-preferred issues: ~ +70bps at 31/12/2016)
optimise costs associated with the Group's liability structure(1)
protect senior preferred debt holders and facilitate Crédit Agricole S.A.'s access to senior preferred funding (volume
and price)
 Success of Crédit Agricole S.A.'s issues due mainly to
Crédit Agricole Group's financial strength, resulting from its diversified and organic capital generating model
the Group's regulatory capital level, offering high protection to holders of senior non-preferred debt
a limited supply of Crédit Agricole S.A. senior non-preferred debt: around €12bn of senior non-preferred debt and
Tier 2 to be issued between 2016 and 2019 to meet the TLAC target set in the Group's Medium Term Plan,
i.e. 22% excluding eligible senior preferred debt
a simple bullet structure for the product launch, to establish a benchmark price curve
(1)
25
Saving of around 60% of the spread difference between senior preferred and Tier 2 debts at the time of first issues in December 2016 and January 2017
Credit Update – February 2017
FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole Group – Low asset encumbrance ratio
 Asset encumbrance disclosure
EBA guidelines provide three disclosure templates (based on the reporting templates of asset encumbrance) and a box for
narrative information to be filled in by institutions on the level of encumbrance in their funding model
These templates don’t explicitly mention the encumbrance ratio defined as “Carrying amount of encumbered assets and
collateral” / “Total assets and collateral”
 Crédit Agricole Group asset encumbrance ratio
 Asset encumbrance in Europe
EBA published its second annual report based on
December 2014 and December 2015 data
13.7% at end Dec-16
Its encumbrance ratio is significantly below France’s ratio
(at end Dec-15) : 23%
France’s encumbrance ratio has moved slightly
below the average ratio in Europe
Asset Encumbrance December 2015
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
26
Credit Update – February 2017
Estonia
Romania
Slovenia
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Malta
Bulgaria
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
Croatia
Luxembourg
Austria
EU Average
Slovakia
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
France
Finland
Belgium
United Kingdom
Italy
Sweden
Spain
Cyprus
Ireland
Germany
Greece
Denmark
0,0%
FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole S.A.’s ratings reflect Crédit Agricole Group’s credit fundamentals
Moody’s
S&P
Fitch Ratings
LT / ST: A1 / P-1
LT / ST: A / A-1
LT / ST: A / F1
Outlook: stable
Outlook: stable
Outlook: positive
Last rating action on 19/07/2016:
• LT rating raised to A1 from A2, ST rating
affirmed
• Outlook changed to stable from positive
• Subordinated debt ratings raised by 1 notch
Last rating action on 02/12/2015:
• LT/ST ratings affirmed; the removal of 1
notch for extraordinary government support
was compensated by 1-notch of ALAC
• Outlook changed to stable from negative
Last rating action on 07/06/2016:
• LT/ST ratings affirmed
• Positive outlook (since 23/06/15) affirmed
On 11/08/16, S&P raised by 1 notch the ratings of
AT1 and Tier 2 Coco issues
 Rating drivers
• The stable outlook reflects the absence of
tangible rating drivers up or down
 Rating drivers
• The stable outlook reflects the absence of
tangible rating drivers up or down
 Rating drivers
• The positive outlook reflects expectations that
the Group will maintain its fairly low risk
appetite and continue to improve its
capitalisation => possible LT rating upgrade
(an outlook typically lasts up to18-24 months)
 Breakdown of 30 G-SIB LT ratings*
 Breakdown of 30 G-SIB LT issuer ratings
 Breakdown of 30 G-SIB LT issuer ratings
(by number of banks)
(by number of banks)
17
3
Aa2
5
4
Aa3
A1
2
2
A2
A3
1
1
0
Baa1 Baa2 Baa3
Ratings at 12/02/2017
7
(by number of banks)
12
3
0
AA
AA-
A+
A
A-
2
BBB+
0
1
BBB
BBB-
Ratings at 12/02/2017
*Issuer ratings or senior unsecured debt ratings
27
Credit Update – February 2017
3
AA
3
AA-
7
A+
Ratings at 12/02/2017
12
3
A
A-
2
BBB+
0
0
BBB
BBB-
FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
Crédit Agricole S.A.’s debt ratings and 5-year CDS spreads

Long-term ratings
Moody’s
Ratings
Debt instrument
Issuer Rating
A1
Adjusted Baseline
Credit Assessment
Ratings
Debt instrument
LT senior
unsecured debt
Issuer Credit Profile
A
A3
Stand-Alone
Credit Profile
a-
baa1
Senior non-preferred
Dated T2
Baa3
Ba1

Ratings
Debt instrument
A+
A2
Baa2
Fitch Ratings
S&P
A+
LT senior
unsecured debt
Issuer Default Rating
Viability Rating
LT senior unsecured debt
Senior non-preferred
A-
Dated T2
BBB+
Senior non-preferred
BBB+
BBB
Dated T2
BBB
BBBAdditional T1
(unsolicited rating)
A
BB+
BBBAdditional T1
BB+
Additional T1
Crédit Agricole S.A. 5-year CDS spreads
5-year CDS spreads - senior
5-year CDS spreads - subordinated
340
140
300
120
260
100
80
60
220
72
180
206
196
192
177
140
40
100
Crédit Agricole SA
BNP Paribas
Source: Bloomberg
28
88
82
82
Société Générale
ITRAXX FINANCIAL -- SENIOR
Crédit Agricole SA
BNP Paribas
Source: Bloomberg
Credit Update – February 2017
Société Générale
ITRAXX FINANCIAL -- SUB
SECTION 4:
RISKS
29
Credit Update – February 2017
RISKS
Tight risk control in all business lines
Cost of risk on outstandings (in bps over a rolling four-quarter period)
264
244
55
226
51
48
41
39
41
41
30
31
41
140
133
113
108
101
29
32
140
134
32
30
30
28
Crédit Agricole Group (2)
140
136
135
130
28
25
25
21
20
15
16
18

117
18
18
16
Crédit Agricole S.A.: 41bps in Q4-16, stable YoY and below the assumption of 50bps embedded in
Unfavourable base effect in Q4-15

Hardening of provisioning parameters in line
with the recovery of activity

IRB – Italy(1)
17
18
Crédit Agricole Group: 28bps in Q4-16, down YoY and below the assumption of 35bps embedded in
(1) Excl. the impact of Switch guarantee trigger and additional OFAC provision in Q2- 15, Switch guarantee
clawback and provision for OFAC remediation costs in Q3-15, and provision for OFAC remediation costs, additional
legal provisions in Q4-15 and additional legal provisions in Q2-16 and Q3-16
(2) Excl. the impact of additional OFAC provision in Q2-15, provision for OFAC remediation costs in Q3-15 and
Q4-15, additional legal provisions in Q4-15 and additional legal provisions in Q2-16 and Q3-16.
(1)
Q1-15
Q2-15
14
13
Q3-15
RBs
17
LCL
17
11
10
Q4-14
the Medium Term Plan
19
18
17
12
93

Continued improvement of asset quality
33
21
19
the Medium Term Plan


Crédit Agricole S.A. (1)
37
34
CACF
201
162
43

Q4-15
Q1-16
Q2-16
Q3-16

CIB – Financing activities(2)

Quasi stability vs previous quarters

LCL & Regional Banks

Stability at a low level
Q4-16
Excl. additional provisions recognised largely in preparation for the AQR in Italy for -109m in Q1-14
(2)
Excl. the impact of the additional OFAC litigation provision in Q2-15 and additional legal provisions in Q2-16
and Q3-16
Key impaired loans and coverage ratios
Coverage ratio (incl. collective reserves)(1)
Impaired loans ratio
3.6%
3.6%
3.1%
3.1%
2.6%
2.6%
Q4-14
Q1-15
3.6%
3.1%
3.7%
3.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
3.6%
3.6%
3.0%
3.0%
3.5%
3.0%
101.3% 100.3% 100.3% 100.4% 102.6% 102.3% 103.4% 103.4% 101.7%
Crédit Agricole S.A
Credit Agricole Group
2.5%
Q2-15
2.5%
Q3-15
2.5%
Q4-15
2.5%
Q1-16
2.5%
Q2-16
2.5%
Q3-16
2.4%
Q4-16
Regional Banks
Regional Banks
84.5%
83.5%
83.5%
83.6%
83.3%
71.9%
72.8%
72.9%
72.6%
71.5%
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15
Q3-15
Q4-15
(1)
30
83.7%
81.3%
81.1%
81.0%
68.5%
67.9%
67.7%
67.7%
Q1-16
Q2-16
Q3-16
Q4-16
Crédit Agricole Group
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Calculated on the basis of outstandings not netted for available collateral and guarantees
Credit Update – February 2017
RISKS
Change in credit risk outstanding
Crédit Agricole Group
€m
Gross customer loans outstanding
of which: impaired loans
Loans loss reserves (incl. collective reserves)
Impaired loans ratio
Coverage ratio (excl. collective reserves)*
Coverage ratio (incl. collective reserves)*
Dec. 15
833,777
24,886
20,817
3.0%
58.0%
83.6%
Sept. 16
864,234
26,008
21,057
3.0%
56.3%
81.0%
Dec. 16
873,383
25,783
20,760
3.0%
56.3%
80.5%
Dec. 15
418,985
14,769
10,561
3.5%
53.9%
71.5%
Sept. 16
435,968
15,865
10,733
3.6%
51.9%
67.7%
Dec. 16
439,781
15,591
10,564
3.5%
52.1%
67.7%
Sept. 16
412,096
9,925
10,265
2.5%
63.8%
103.4%
Dec. 16
417,941
9,960
10,129
2.4%
63.4%
101.7%
o/w Crédit Agricole S.A.
€m
Gross customer and interbank loans outstanding
of which: impaired loans
Loans loss reserves (incl. collective reserves)
Impaired loans ratio
Coverage ratio (excl. collective reserves)*
Coverage ratio (incl. collective reserves)*
o/w
Regional Banks (French GAAP)
€m
Gross customer loans outstanding
of which: impaired loans
Loans loss reserves (incl. collective reserves)
Impaired loans ratio
Coverage ratio (excl. collective reserves)*
Coverage ratio (incl. collective reserves)*
Dec. 15
399,700
9,938
10,196
2.5%
64.4%
102.6%
Principal amounts, excluding finance lease with customers, excluding intragroup transactions within Crédit Agricole and accrued interest
* Calculated on the basis of outstandings not netted for available collateral and guarantees
31
Credit Update – February 2017
RISKS
Crédit Agricole Group – French and retail banking risks predominant
By geographic region
Dec. 16
Dec. 15
France (Retail)
40.30%
40.10%
France (Non-retail)
30.20%
29.60%
Western Europe (excl. Italy)
8.00%
8.70%
Italy
6.80%
6.80%
North America
5.50%
5.50%
Asia and Oceania excl. Japan
2.90%
2.90%
Africa and Middle-East
2.40%
2.30%
Japan
1.60%
1.70%
Eastern Europe
1.30%
1.30%
Central and South America
1.00%
1.10%
Other
0%
0%
Total
100%
100%
32
By business sector
Dec. 16 Dec. 15
Retail banking
49.3%
49.1%
Non-merchant service / Public sector / Local authorities
10.4%
10.2%
Energy
5.1%
5.2%
Other non banking financial activities
4.8%
4.2%
Real estate
3.4%
3.5%
Banks
3.1%
3.5%
Others
2.7%
3.3%
Automotive
2.6%
2.3%
Food
2.5%
2.7%
Heavy industry
1.9%
2.0%
Aerospace
1.7%
1.6%
Construction
1.7%
1.8%
Retail and consumer goods
1.6%
1.6%
Shipping
1.5%
1.6%
Healthcare / pharmaceutical
1.5%
1.3%
Other transport
1.1%
1.1%
Other industries
1.0%
1.2%
Telecom
1.0%
1.2%
Insurance
0.8%
0.8%
IT / computing
0.7%
0.6%
Tourism / hotels / restaurants
0.7%
0.8%
Utilities
0.4%
0.0%
Media / Edition
0.3%
0.4%
Wood / Paper / Packaging
0.2%
0.0%
Total
100%
100%
Credit Update – February 2017
RISKS
Crédit Agricole S.A. – Market risk exposure
 Crédit Agricole S.A.’s VaR (99% - 1 day) is computed by taking into account the impact of diversification
between the Group’s various entities
 VaR (99% - 1 day) at 31 December 2016: €10m for Crédit Agricole S.A.
Change in the risk exposure of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s capital market activities
VAR (99% - 1 day)
1st January to 31 December 2016
€m
33
31 Dec. 15
Minimum
Maximum
Average
31 Dec. 16
Fixed income
5
15
10
6
7
Credit
3
19
4
4
7
Foreign Exchange
2
6
3
4
3
Equities
0
4
1
1
1
Commodities
0
0
0
0
0
Mutualised VaR for
Crédit Agricole S.A.
9
17
13
10
15
Credit Update – February 2017
SECTION 5:
FRENCH HOUSING MARKET
34
Credit Update – February 2017
FRENCH HOUSING MARKET
Favourable structural fundamentals
 Strong demand-side factors
Ownership ratio in Europe
(as a % of total households)
%
80
 Lower rate of home ownership (64% of French households
were owner-occupiers in 2014) compared with other European
countries.
60
40
 A higher birth rate than in most Western European countries
20
 Other factors also support demand (divorce, retirement
planning, limited supply of rental accommodation)
0
 A “safe haven” effect: in a deteriorated environment and given
the volatility of financial markets, French households are
showing a preference for what is perceived as low-risk
investments, in particular housing
Source : 2014, Eurostat
France: Housing starts and permits
000', aggregate12m
550
 Weak supply
450
 France has a structural housing deficit of about 600,000 units
(a figure smaller than previously estimated as series on
housing starts had been revised upwards)
 Developers have been cautious during the housing boom,
adjusting their supply to fluctuating demand. The stock of new
housing units for sale is limited, and 63% of it is still at the
planning stage in Q3 2016, which limits the risk of oversupply
 A structurally sound home loan market
350
250
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Housing starts
12
14
16
Permits
Source: Ministry of Ecology
%
Households' housing debt ratio
(housing debt/disposable income)
150
120
90
60
 Prudent lending direct housing demand towards the most
creditworthy buyers
 The French housing debt ratio is increasing but remains low
compared with the rest of Europe
35
Credit Update – February 2017
30
0
2009
2010
France
Source : Central Banks
2011
2012
Germany
2013
Spain
2014
UK
2015
FRENCH HOUSING MARKET
Far more resilient than the rest of Europe
 The French market did not experience a bubble / excessive risk-taking,
as seen in the US, the UK, Ireland and Spain between 1998 and 2007
 The 2008-2009 recession put an end to the boom. Since then, the
housing sector has been undergoing a correction, with a cumulative
decline in prices of 50% in Ireland, 35% in Spain, 20 % in Italy and the
Netherlands. In the UK, prices dropped by 19% between 2009 and mid2012. In France, prices continued to rise in 2010-2011
Housing price Indices
Index base 100=1997Q1
400
300
200
100
98
00
02
UK
04
06
08
Spain
10
12
14
France
16
Ireland
Sources : Halifax, Ministerio de Fomento,Insee, Oxford Ecs
 The real estate cycle is currently either bottoming (Spain, Italy, the
Netherlands) or rising (UK, Ireland), albeit at a slower pace in the UK
following on the Brexit referendum
 In France, stabilising factors have led to a gradual correction in 20122014, followed by a clear rebound in 2015-2016
 In 2012-2014, sales volumes were slightly reduced and prices
declined overall by 6% in the existing housing sector
 In 2015-2016, housing sales have rebounded and prices have
started to rise again, albeit modestly

In the existing housing sector, sales volumes were up 16% in 2015 (to
800,000 units) and increased again, by around 5%, in 2016
49
France: Sales of newly-built housing
000s per quarter
41
33
25
18
10
91
94
97
00
Source: Ministry of Ecology
900
03
06
09

Newly built housing sales volumes rebounded by 15% in 2015 (up
40% in buy-to-let) and by around 17% in 2016
Existing housing prices were stable in 2015 and are slightly up, by
around 2%, in 2016
15
Sales
France: Existing housing sales
and prices
000s
%
forecast
800

12
On market
5
600
0
500
-5
400
-10
-15
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sales
Yearly price variation (rhs)
Sources: CGEDD, Notaries, Crédit Agricole S.A
Credit Update – February 2017
15
10
700
300
36
20
FRENCH HOUSING MARKET
Negative and positive economic environment factors
 Economic factors and high prices negatively affect demand
 GDP growth remains modest: 1.2% in 2015, 1.1% in 2016 and 1.3%
expected in 2017. High unemployment rate: close to 10% in 20152016
20
 Mid-term household income expectations are mediocre
10
 Fiscal tightening measures in 2012-2014: sharp reduction in housing
capital gains allowance in 2012
 Selling prices remain quite high, even if they are now close to their
equilibrium value (due to decreasing prices and falling lending rates)
France: Housing prices
and unemployment rate
15
8
5
0
10
-5
-10
 Recent recovery due to two factors: record low lending rates
and new housing support plan
 Long-term fixed-rate mortgage lending rates fell again in 2016,
reaching a record low of 1.5% in December 2016. That low cost of
credit triggered a windfall effect and accelerated certain projects
 Lending rates will be the main driver in the housing market in 2017.
OAT and lending rates should remain low. Yet, OAT rates began to
edge up in late 2016-early 2017 (rising inflation in the Eurozone,
gradual increase in US long-term rates, political uncertainties in
France). OAT rates and lending rates should slightly rise in 2017,
which would lead to a less upbeat market
 Easing of the Duflot scheme for rental investment (since renamed the
Pinel scheme), with 6, 9, and 12-year options, the possibility of
renting to parents or children and a limitation on rent caps. The PTZ
interest-free loan is strengthened again in 2016 with a higher income
ceiling, loans of up to 40% of the purchase price compared with 1826% previously, deferred repayments, and longer terms for loans
37
Credit Update – February 2017
6
12
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Yearly price increase
Unemployment rate (inv. rhs)
Sources: Notaries, Insee
France: Housing loan rates
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
Monthly average, %
1,5
Housing loan rate excl. insurances
Sources: BdF, Crédit Agricole
FRENCH HOUSING MARKET
Lending practices enhance borrower solvency
New housing loans : respective
contribution of fixed and floating rates
 A cautious origination process
100%
 In France, the granting of a housing loan is based on the
borrower’s ability to repay and not on the value and quality of the
housing asset. The ratio of repayments to income must not
significantly exceed one third of the borrower’s income
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
 Low risk characteristics of the loans
10%
0%
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
 Loans are almost always amortising, with constant repayments
fixed rate
floating rate
Source : ACPR
 Most housing loans have a fixed rate to maturity (96.7% for new
loans in 2015). Almost all floating rates are capped. This has a
stabilising effect on borrower solvency
 The initial maturity of new loans gradually lengthened between
2000 and 2008, up to 20 years. Since then, it has shortened
slightly and remains reasonable, standing at an average of 18
years in 2015
 The LTV for new loans stood at 85.7% in 2015 (new lending,
excluding refinancing)
 French housing loan market largely based on guarantees provided
by Crédit Logement and housing loan insurance companies
 Mortgage equity withdrawal mechanisms are highly regulated and
are not used
 As a result the risk profile is very low
 The doubtful loans ratio for housing loans is rising slightly but
remains low, at 1.55% in 2015
38
Credit Update – February 2017
years
Initial average maturity of new
housing loans
20
15
10
5
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source : ACPR, Crédit Agricole S.A.
%
Non performing loans/total housing
loans
2
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source : ACPR
SECTION 6:
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE
HOME LOAN SFH
39
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Crédit Agricole – Leader in home finance
 Crédit Agricole Group is the unchallenged
leader in French home finance
 €320.8bn in housing loans outstanding at end Q4-2016
 Market share of 29.6% at end Q3-2016*
 Recognised expertise built on
 Extensive geographical coverage via the density of the
branch network
 Significant local knowledge
 Insider view based on a network of real estate
agencies
 Home financing at the
relationship management
heart
of
client
 Around 70% of home loan borrowers have been
customers of their Regional Bank for more than 10
years
Source: Crédit Agricole S.A.
 Home finance is the starting point in retail banking for
product cross-selling (death and disability insurance,
property and casualty insurance, home loan guarantee,
current account facilities, etc.)
* Source: Economic Department – Crédit Agricole S.A.
40
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Crédit Agricole home loans – Very low risk profile
Origination process relies on the borrower’s repayment capability


Borrower risk is analysed through revenues and credit history checks (3 pay slips, most recent tax statement, bank statements,
Banque de France records)

Analysis includes project features (proof of own equity, construction and work bills, etc.)

Borrower repayment capability is measured with the income sufficiency test, which ensures that disposable income after all
expenses exceeds a minimum amount, depending on the size and means of each household

In addition, credit risks are analysed before and after the granting of a guarantee

As a result, the risk profile is very low

The rate of doubtful loans remains low, despite a slight increase since 2007

The provisioning policy is traditionally very cautious, well above the French market (42.3% at end-2016)

Final losses remain very low: 0.018% in 2016
Source: Crédit Agricole S.A. & Banque de France
41
Source: Crédit Agricole S.A. & Banque de France
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
A diversified guarantee policy, adapted to clients’ risks and needs
 Mortgage
 French State guarantee for eligible borrowers in addition to a mortgage
 PAS loans (social accession loans)
 Guaranteed loans: growing proportion, in line with the French market
 Mainly used for well known customers and low risk loans…
 in order to avoid mortgage registration costs…
 and to simplify administrative procedures both at the signing of the loan and at loan maturity…
 via Crédit Logement (external institution jointly owned by major French banks) or CAMCA (internal mutual
insurance company)
Outstanding 2015
New loans 2015
Outstanding 2016
New loans 2016
Mortgage
32,8%
27,6%
32,3%
28,4%
Mortgage & State g’tee
4,2%
4,0%
4,3%
4,5%
Crédit Logement
22,9%
30,7%
23,2%
25,8%
CAMCA
Other guarantees +
others
26,8%
25,8%
27,6%
30,9%
13,4%
11,9%
12,6%
10,5%
Source: Crédit Agricole
Perimeter: Crédit Agricole Group French Home Loans
42
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Issuer legal framework


Crédit Agricole Home Loan SFH (CA HL SFH), the Issuer

A French credit institution, 100% owned by Crédit Agricole S.A. licensed by the French financial regulator (ACPR, Autorité
de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution)

Formerly Crédit Agricole Covered Bonds (CACB), it was converted on 12 April 2011 into a SFH (Société de Financement à
l’Habitat), a specialised bank created under the law dedicated to French home loan Covered Bonds
Investor benefits provided by the French SFH legal framework
Strengthened Issuer
Protection given by the
cover pool
43
 Limited activity of the Issuer : exposure to eligible cover pool and issuance of CB (Obligations de
financement de l’Habitat OH)
> €40bn
 Bankruptcy remoteness from bankruptcy of the parent company
 Eligibility criteria : pure residential loans, either 1st lien mortgage or guarantee by a credit
institution, a financing company (Société de financement) or an insurance company, property
located in France or another country in the European economic area or a highly rated country
 Over-collateralisation : 105% minimum, loan eligible amount capped at 80% of LTV
 Legal privilege : absolute priority claim on all payments arising from the assets of the SFH
Enhanced liquidity
 Liquidity coverage for interest and principal amounts due over the next 180 days
 New source of liquidity as the Issuer may subscribe to its own Covered Bonds for pledge as
collateral with the Central Bank, up to 10% of overall Covered Bonds outstanding
CA HL SFH recognition




Controls
 Public supervision by the French regulator (ACPR)
 Ongoing control by the specific controller to protect bondholders
ECB eligible : CA HL SFH Jumbo Covered Bond issues eligible in category II
UCITS 52(4)-Directive compliant
CRR 129 compliant with reduced risk weighting of 10% (Standard Approach)
LCR eligible as Level 1 asset (M€ 500 and above CB issues)
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Structural features

Home loans cover pool
 Home loans granted as security in favour of the SFH
 Self originated home loans by the Crédit Agricole Regional Banks or LCL
 Property located in France
 No arrears

Overcollateralisation
 Allowing for the AAA rating of the CB
 Monitored by the Asset Cover Test, ensuring



credit enhancement
the coverage of carrying costs
Double recourse of the Issuer
 Recourse of the Issuer both on the cover pool and on Crédit Agricole S.A.
 The structure relies on the European Collateral Directive provisions transposed into the French Monetary and Financial
Code (Article L211-38, July 2005)



Assets of the cover pool are identified by the collateral providers as granted for the benefit of the Issuer; and…
will be transferred as a whole in case of enforcement of collateral security
Controls
 Audited by Mazars and Ernst & Young
 Ongoing control by the specific controller, Fides Audit, approved by the French regulator
44
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Structure overview
Legal privilege over all assets of the Issuer
and the cover pool
Investors
Covered
Bonds
Proceeds
No mismatch
between Covered
Bonds and CASA
Borrower Facilities
Collateral
Providers:
CA Home Loan SFH
The Issuer
Collateral
Securities
Borrower
Facilities
Regional
Bank 1
Regional
Bank …
Regional
Bank i
Borrower
2nd Lender
Administrator
Collateral Providers
Agent
45
Collateral
Provider
Facilities
LCL
Credit Update – February 2017
 Proceeds from the issuance of
Covered Bonds will be used by
the Issuer to grant Crédit
Agricole
S.A.
Borrower
Facilities, collateralised by the
eligible cover pool
 Crédit Agricole S.A. will grant
Collateral Provider Facilities to
each of the 39 Regional Banks
and
LCL
(the
Collateral
Providers)
 Each Collateral Provider will
benefit from facilities with an
attractive interest rate
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Liquidity and market risk monitoring
 Liquidity and interest rate risks
 Average life of the cover pool (including
overcollateralisation) has become 1,7y shorter than
cover bonds (CB) following the March 2016 LM
exercise, which has also reduced the average coupon
of the CB (-0,40%) :
- Buyback of €3.061bn on 7CB benchmarks (average
life: 3.8y and average coupon: 3.3%)
- Replacement of CB by €3.25bn new issues (average
life: 10.7y and average coupon: 0.8%)
- Switch from hard bullet to soft bullet format for all CB
hard bullet benchmarks* following bondholders’
consent, enhancing the efficiency of the programme.
 Cover pool as well as CB are mostly fixed rate
 Monthly control based on cash flow model to check
timely payment of CB with cash from cover pool
including overcollateralisation, with stressed interest
rate and conditional Prepayment Rate (CPR)
scenarios.
Currency breakdown
 Currency risk
 A limited currency risk fully hedged through cross
currency swaps with internal counterparty
* Maturing from 2017
* fully hedged into EUR via XCCY swaps
Source: Crédit Agricole S.A. at end-December 2016
46
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Cover pool at end-December 2016
47
Total outstanding current
balance
€ 31,069,485,522
Number of loans
649,345
Average loan balance
€ 47,847
Seasoning
96 months
Remaining term
153 months
WA LTV
56.76%
Indexed WA LTV
56.65%
Interest rates
86.84% fixed
13.16% variable, capped
Guarantee type distribution
Mortgage : 68.0%
(of which 14.8% with additional
guarantee of the French State)
Crédit Logement guarantee : 23.5%
CAMCA guarantee : 8.5%
Occupancy
82.88% owner occupied homes
Origination
100% home loans self originated in
France by 39 Regional Banks and
LCL
Key eligibility criteria
No arrears
Current LTV max 100%
 Excellent geographical diversification
 Very low LTV, allowing high recoveries, even in highly stressed
scenarios
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Programme features
Programme size
Rating
CB Governing laws
Outstanding CB
CB Outstanding amount
€35bn
Aaa by Moody’s, AAA by Standard & Poor’s, AAA by Fitch
French law, German Law, Australian Law
42 series - 48 tranches
€22.13bn
At end-December 2016
48
> €40bn
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE HOME LOAN SFH
Investor information
 Crédit Agricole S.A. Home Loan SFH is registered with the Covered Bond label
https://coveredbondlabel.com/issuer/73/
 Investor information available on the Group website
https://www.credit-agricole.com/en/finance/finance/investor-s-corner/debt/wholesale-bonds-issues/ca-home-loan-sfh-covered-bonds
49
Credit Update – February 2017
SECTION 7:
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE
PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
50
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Key features
 CA Public Sector SCF’s objectives
 Expanding Credit Agricole’s export finance activities guaranteed by Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), acting in the
name of Governments: a high credit quality/low margin business requiring low refinancing costs
 Diversifying Credit Agricole’s funding sources at an optimal cost
 A €10bn Covered Bond programme rated Aaa (Moody’s) and AAA (Standard &
Poor’s) since launch
 A regulated credit institution, licensed within the SCF French legal framework
 CA Public Sector SCF only refinances eligible exposures to public entities through Covered Bond issues
(Obligations Foncières)
 Value of cover pool must equal at least 105% of Covered Bonds issued, by Law
 Investors in Covered Bonds benefit from legal privilege over the assets
 Bankruptcy remoteness of the Issuer from the parent ensured by Law
 By law, no early redemption or acceleration of the Covered Bonds in case of insolvency
 Close monitoring and supervision (ACPR, specific controller, independent auditors)
 Compliance with provision 52 (4) of the UCITS EU Directive
 Reduced risk weighting of 10% in Standard Approach according to EU Capital
Requirements Regulation (CRR)
51
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
CACIB’s Export Credit Agency (ECA) business

CACIB, 100% subsidiary of Crédit Agricole S.A.,
is an established leader in asset based finance
 Leader in aircraft finance among European banks
 Top player in shipping in the European and Asian markets
 Major player in project finance and especially infrastructure, power
and oil & gas
Outstanding ECA loans (€bn)
 Experience of more than 25 years

ECA loan origination in the EU has continued to
grow after the Lehman crisis
 Loans are guaranteed by ECAs, acting in the name of their
governments
 Steady demand from exporters for LT financing given large
infrastructure needs in emerging markets (construction, telecoms,
energy, transportation, etc.)
 Very low risk thanks to the recourse to ECAs and often mortgages
as well
 Very low capital consumption for banks
 Attractive business with solid ROE

CACIB ranks among the top players in the EU
for ECA guaranteed loans
 A portfolio of €16.5bn
52
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
CACIB’s Export Credit Agency (ECA) business

ECA mix
CACIB continues to dedicate important
resources to the ECA business
 Origination capacity in more than 25 countries
 Product teams in Paris, in charge of structuring and of
relations with ECAs
 Strong transaction teams with high expertise, managing
deals from signature to final repayment

Sector mix
Strong credit processes
 Annual strategy review by business line, including risk
policy
 Credit approval granted by specialised credit committees
and by the top credit committee of the Bank
Borrowers’ country mix
 Annual portfolio review

Diversified portfolio
 Sovereign guarantees provided by a diversified group of
guarantors
 Good sector and geographic diversification
At end-Dec 2016
53
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Issuer legal framework

Crédit Agricole Public Sector SCF, the Issuer


A French credit institution, 100% owned by Crédit Agricole S.A., licensed by the French financial regulator (ACPR, Autorité de
Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution)
Investor benefits provided by the French SCF legal framework
Strengthened Issuer
Protection given by the
cover pool
 Limited activity of the Issuer: exposure to eligible cover pool and issuance of Covered Bonds
(Obligations Foncières)
> €40bn
 Bankruptcy remoteness from bankruptcy of the parent
 Eligibility criteria: public exposure, as defined by Law (public exposure to European Economic Area or
country with a minimum rating of A-)
 Over-collateralisation : 105% minimum
 Legal privilege: absolute priority claim on all payments arising from the assets of CA PS SCF
Enhanced liquidity
 Liquidity coverage for interest and principal amounts due over the next 180 days
 Additional source of liquidity as the Issuer may subscribe to its own Covered Bonds for pledge as
collateral with the Central Bank, up to 10% of overall Covered Bonds outstanding
CA PS SCF Recognition




Control
 Public supervision by the French regulator (ACPR)
 Ongoing control by the Specific Controller to protect bondholders
54
ECB eligible : CA PS SCF Jumbo Covered Bond issues eligible in category II
UCITS 52(4)-Directive compliant
CRR 129 compliant with reduced risk weighting of 10% (Standard Approach)
LCR eligible as Level 1 asset (M€ 500 and above CB issues)
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Structural features

Programme


Cover pool

Loans fully guaranteed by ECAs acting on behalf of governments originated by CACIB

Loans to or fully guaranteed by multinational or national or regional authorities or public institutions originated by CACIB

Loan transfers achieved on a loan-by-loan basis




55
€10bn programme of Obligations Foncières, with €2bn of issues outstanding rated Aaa by Moody’s and AAA by Standard & Poor’s since
launch

Due diligence performed by our French counsel

Review by local counsel in borrower countries of pre and post transfer formalities, to achieve a binding and enforceable transfer to the
borrower and any third party including the ECAs

Completion of formalities: obtaining all necessary consents from third parties (ECAs, borrower, other lenders, Agent, etc.) in due form
Loans to, or guaranteed by, French national, regional authorities or public institutions only originated by the Crédit Agricole Group Regional
Banks to be potentially included in the future
Over-collateralisation

Over-collateralisation above the 105% legal requirement to reach the maximum achievable rating

Over-collateralisation ratio monitored by the monthly Asset Cover Test
Double recourse of the Issuer

Recourse of the CA Public Sector SCF both on the cover pool and on Crédit Agricole S.A.

The structure relies on the European Collateral Directive provisions transposed into French Law (Article L211-38 July 2005, French
Monetary and Financial Code )

Assets of the cover pool are identified by CACIB as granted for the benefit of the Issuer

Assets will be effectively transferred as a whole in case of enforcement of collateral security
Controls

Audit by two auditors : PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Ernst & Young

Ongoing control by a Specific Controller approved by the French regulator (Fides Audit)
Credit Update – February 2017
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Structure overview
Legal privilege over all assets of the Issuer
and the cover pool
Investors
Covered
Bonds
proceeds
No mismatch
between Covered
Bonds and Issuer
Facilities
 Crédit Agricole S.A. will grant
CASA Facilities to CACIB (the
Collateral Provider) with an
attractive interest rate
CA Public Sector SCF
 Eligible cover pool will be
transferred by way of security, in
accordance with the French
Monetary and Financial code
(Article L 211-38):
The Issuer
Issuer
Facilities
Borrower
2nd Lender
Collateral Provider
Collateral
Securities
Collateral
Securities
CACIB
Borrower
Collateral Provider
CASA
Facilities
56
 Proceeds from the issuance of
Covered Bonds will be used by the
Issuer to grant Crédit Agricole S.A.
Issuer Facilities,
Credit Update – February 2017
•
by CACIB to CASA as collateral of
CASA Facilities,
•
and by CASA to CA PS SCF, as
collateral of Issuer Facilities
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Cover pool at end-December 2016
 €4.5bn (eq) drawn ECA loans*
Cover pool ECA mix
2,5
 Total commitment of €5.7bn (eq)
2,0
2,0
1,5
 205 loans
1,5
1,0
 Strongly rated guarantors (% of drawn amounts)
0,7 0,7
0,6 0,6
0,4 0,4
0,5
0,2 0,1
0,2 0,1
0,1 0,1
0,1 0,0
0,0 0,0
0,1 0,0
0,1 0,0
0,0
 42% France, rated Aa2/ AA/ AA (COFACE)
 18% Germany, rated Aaa/ AAA/ AAA (mainly EULERHERMES and LAND SCHLESWIG HOLSTEIN for 1%)
 19% UK, rated Aa1/ AA/ AA (UKEF)
Commitment (€bn)
 Enhancement of the pool diversification by inclusion of new
high quality guarantors of which mainly Switzerland (SERV)
for 4%, Korea (KSURE) for 3%, Multilateral Investment
Guarantee Agency for 1% and Austria (OeKB) for 2%
at end-December 2016
Sector mix
Industry
2%
Infrastructure
3%
 Sector mix (% of drawn amounts)
Outstanding (€bn)
Mining
2%
Other
0%
Rail Finance
5%
 50% aircraft (all aircraft loans are secured by mortgages)
Telecom
8%
 12% Oil & Gas
Aircraft
50%
Power
8%
 38% others
Defence
10%
* €4.5bn transferred at end-December 2016 to CA Public Sector SCF of which:
• €3,57bn with post transfer formalities fully completed and,
• €0,90bn with post transfer formalities in progress.
57
Credit Update – February 2017
Oil & Gas
12%
drawn amount
at end-December 2016
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Cover pool at end-December 2016
Cover pool Borrower country mix
 Borrower country mix
 Well diversified among 28 countries
 The contribution of Ireland results from the location of
aircraft finance SPVs operated mainly by non-Irish
companies in this country
CHINA
12%
OTHER
13%
FINLAND
2%
UNITED STATES
3%
LUXEMBOURG
3%
MEXICO
10%
TURKEY
3%
 Currency mix (% of drawn amount)
INDONESIA
3%
 57% USD
 38% EUR
BRAZIL
7%
UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES
4%
 5% AUD
SOUTH KOREA
8%
AUSTRIA
4%
IRELAND
5%
 Borrower interest rate
RUSSIA
7%
SOUTH
AFRICA
5%
AUSTRALIA
5%
NETHERLANDS
6%
 39% fixed rate
drawn amount
at end-December 2016
Cover pool Currency mix
 61% variable
2,5
2,3
2,0
 Cover pool maturity
2,0
2,0
 Average residual life : 4,1 years
1,5
1,4
 Average residual term : 8,7 years
1,0
 Average initial maturity : 12,0 years
 Seasoning of the pool : 4,5 years
0,5
0,2 0,2
0,0 0,0
0,0
USD
EUR
Commitment (bn€)
58
Credit Update – February 2017
AUD
Outstanding (bn€)
JPY
at end-December 2016
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE PUBLIC SECTOR SCF
Programme features
€10bn
Programme size
Rating
CB Governing laws
> €40bn
Aaa by Moody’s, AAA by Standard & Poor’s
French Law, German Law
3 series
Outstanding CB
€2.5bn
CB Outstanding amount
At end-December 2016
 Crédit Agricole S.A. Public Sector SCF is registered with the Covered Bond Label
https://www.coveredbondlabel.com/
 Investor information available on the Group website
https://www.credit-agricole.com/en/finance/finance/investor-s-corner/debt/wholesale-bonds-issues/ca-public-sector-scf-covered-bonds
59
Credit Update – February 2017
SECTION 8:
APPENDICES
60
Credit Update – February 2017
1. KEY DATA
61
Credit Update – February 2017
KEY DATA
Crédit Agricole Group
 Leading French co-operative bank
 9.3 mn mutual shareholders and 2,471 Local Credit Co-operatives
 Crédit Agricole Group: Sound financial fundamentals
at Q4-16 & 2016
 38 Regional Banks owning 56.6% of Crédit Agricole S.A. via SAS
 Stated Net income Group share: €1,211m in Q4-16 excl. goodwill
impairment (-22.6%, Q4-16/Q4-15) and €5,365m in 2016 (-11.2%,
2016/2015); underlying Net Income Group share: €1,648m in Q4-16
(+9.5%, Q4-16/Q4-15) and €6,353m for 2016 (+3.1%, 2016/2015)
Rue La Boétie end Q4-16
 Leading player in Retail Banking and in Savings
Management in France
 Leading lender to the French economy, with loans outstanding in
 Shareholders’ equity: €98.6bn at end Q4-16 vs. €92.9bn at end Q4-15
 Leading market shares in non-financial customer deposits and
 Phased-in leverage ratio: 5.7% at end Q4-16 (as defined in the
respect of Regional Banks and LCL of €532.2bn at end Q4-16
 B3 CET1 FL ratio: 14.5% at end Q4-16 vs.13.7% at end Q4-15
Delegated Act and assuming non-exemption of exposures linked to
the centralisation of CDC deposits, per our understanding of
information obtained from the ECB)
loans in France: 24.6% and 21.4% respectively at end Q3-16(1)
 Leading banking Group in residential housing loans, with
outstandings in respect of Regional Banks and LCL of €320.8bn at
end Q4-16; market share of 29.6% at end Q3-16(1)
 Conglomerate ratio: >170% on a phased-in basis at end Q4-16, far
above 100% requirement
 No. 1 insurance Group in France by written premiums(2); market
share of 15.0% of life insurance outstandings at end Q4-15(3)
 Estimated TLAC ratio excl. eligible senior debt expressed as % of
 No. 1 bancassurer in France and in Europe(2)
RWA of 20.3% at end Q4-16; estimated MREL ratio excl. potentially
eligible senior debt > 1 year expressed as % of prudential balance
sheet of 8.5% at end Q4-16
 No. 1 asset manager in France and in Europe by AUM(4)
 Resilient customer-focused universal banking
model
 Retail and related activities accounted for 83% of Crédit Agricole
Group’s underlying Group net income Group share in 2016 (excl.
Corporate centre)
 Strong contribution from all business lines in 2016
(1)
62
Source: Economic Department - Crédit Agricole S.A. (2) Argus de l’Assurance, 16/12/2016
 Liquidity reserves: €247bn at end Q4-16 vs. €257bn at end Q4-15;
liquidity reserves to gross ST debt ratio of 305% at end Q4-16 vs.
257% at end Q4-15; LCR >110% and NSFR > 100% at end Q4-16
 Broad base of very high quality assets available for securitisation
 Ratings
of
A/Positive/F1
(3)
Predica estimate
(4)
A/Stable/A-1
(S&P),
(Fitch Ratings)
Source: IPE 06/2016
Credit Update – February 2017
A1/Stable/P-1
(Moody’s),
KEY DATA
Crédit Agricole S.A. and Crédit Agricole Group consolidated balance
sheets at 31/12/16
€bn
Assets
Cash and Central banks
CA Group
Liabilities
28.2
31.3
Financial assets at fair value through
profit or loss
348.2
348.9
Available for sale financial assets
315.9
339.8
Due from banks
382.8
96.1
Loans and advances to customers
346.3
773.9
Financial assets held to maturity
14.4
30.2
Accruals and sundry liabilities
Accrued income and sundry assets
56.6
66.2
Non-current assets held for sale
0.6
Investments in equity affiliates
Fixed assets
Goodwill
Total assets
63
CASA
Central banks
CASA
CA Group
3.9
4.1
Financial liabilities at fair value
through profit or loss
261.9
266.1
Due to banks
112.3
78.8
Customer accounts
521.8
693.3
Debt securities in issue
159.3
168.1
60.5
64.9
Liabilities associated with non-current
assets held for sale
0.4
0.4
0.6
Insurance Company technical reserves
306.7
308.0
7.1
7.0
Contingency reserves and
subordinated debt
33.6
36.1
11
15.0
Shareholder's equity
58.3
98.6
13.2
13.8
Non-controlling interests
5.7
4.5
1,524.2
1,722.8
1,524.2
1,722.8
Total liabilities
Credit Update – February 2017
2. GROUP STRUCTURE
64
Credit Update – February 2017
GROUP STRUCTURE
Crédit Agricole Mutual Group: customer-focused universal banking model
9.3 mn(3) mutual shareholders
Public
(of which 4.6% employees
and 0.1% treasury shares)
2,471(3) Local Credit Co-operatives
43.4%(2)
Crédit Agricole S.A.
38 Regional Banks
(excl. CR Corsica) (1)
~25%
(through
CCI/CCA)
•
56.6%(2)
100%
Sacam Mutualisation
via holding company
(SAS La Boétie)
•
Listed Company
Central Body and member
of CA network
• HoldCo of Group subs
27 mn(3) retail customers in France
50 mn(3) customers worldwide
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Four business lines
Asset Gathering :
Amundi, CAA,
CA Indosuez Private
Banking…
Retail Banking: LCL,
Cariparma, CA Bank
Polska, Crédit du Maroc..
Specialised financial
services: CACF, CAL&F
Large customers: CACIB,
CACEIS
At 3 August, 2016

2,476 Local Credit Co-operatives form the foundation of the Group and hold nearly all of the share capital of Crédit
Agricole’s 39 Regional Banks, which in turn are the majority shareholders of Crédit Agricole S.A.





(1)
(2)
(3)
65
Local Credit Co-operatives: Private law co-operative companies owned by their members, owning 100% of the voting rights and the majority
of the share capital of the Regional Banks; no branches
Regional Banks: Private law co-operative companies and individually licensed banks, forming France’s leading retail banking network;
majority owned by Local Credit Co-operatives, Sacam Mutualisation (~25% through CCI/CCA) and, for 13 of them, by retail and institutional
investors through non-voting shares with rights on net assets
SACAM Mutualisation: An entity to be wholly owned by the Regional Banks for the purpose of pooling part of their earnings.
SAS La Boétie: The HoldCo managing, on behalf of the Regional Banks, their 56.6% equity interest in Crédit Agricole S.A.
Crédit Agricole S.A.: A listed company and the Central Body of the Crédit Agricole Network, of which it is a member according to the French
Monetary and Financial Code; at the same time, the holding company of Group subsidiaries and functionally, the lead institution of the Crédit
Agricole Group
The Regional Bank of Corsica, which is 99.9%-owned by Crédit Agricole S.A., is also a shareholder of SACAM Mutualisation
At 31 December, 2016
At 31 December, 2016
Credit Update – February 2017
GROUP STRUCTURE
Unchanged internal support mechanisms
Crédit Agricole S.A. obligations under the Financial & Monetary Code

acts as Central Bank to the Crédit Agricole Regional Banks in terms of refinancing, supervision
and reporting to the ACPR

reviews and monitors the credit and the financial risks of its affiliated members - essentially the
Regional Banks and CACIB
Regional Banks’ joint and several guarantee

Through a joint and several guarantee issued in 1988, the Regional Banks guarantee all of the
obligations of Crédit Agricole S.A. to third parties and they also cross-guarantee each other,
should Crédit Agricole S.A. become insolvent and after the liquidation and dissolution of Crédit
Agricole S.A.

The potential liability of the Regional Banks under this guarantee is equal to the aggregate
of their share capital, reserves and retained earnings, i.e. €66.4bn* at end-2016

In accordance with the Decree Law no. 2015-1024 dated 20/08/15, the Resolution Authorities
may, at their discretion, impose a resolution on the Group prior to any liquidation or dissolution.
The ACPR, the national Resolution Authority, considers the SPE resolution strategy as the most
appropriate in France. Any resolution mechanism could limit the likelihood of the occurrence of
the conditions necessary for the application of the guarantee, further to a liquidation or a
dissolution

Crédit Agricole S.A.
Regional Banks
Fin. & Monetary Code
is required (cf. Article L511-31) to take all necessary measures to ensure that each and all of the
Crédit Agricole Network members and its affiliated members - essentially the Regional Banks and
CACIB - (both defined in Article R512-8) maintain satisfactory liquidity and solvency; this
requirement, being enshrined in public law, it is considered to be even stronger than a guarantee
Fin. & Monetary Code

Reciprocal binding
commitments between
the Regional Banks and
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Joint & Several G’tee
Crédit Agricole S.A., as the Central Body and as a member of the Crédit Agricole Network
CACIB
Importantly, upon the institution of a resolution procedure, the ACPR must respect the “no creditor
worse off in a resolution than in a liquidation” principle (cf. Art. L.613-57-I of the French Monetary
and Financial Code, and Art. 73 of the BRRD). Because of this principle, Crédit Agricole S.A.
believes that the existence of the guarantee granted in 1988 should be taken into account by the
ACPR in a resolution, although it is not possible to determine how this will be done
The alignment of the senior unsecured debt ratings of the Regional Banks and CACIB with those of Crédit Agricole
S.A. reflects the support mechanisms within the Group
* Aggregate figures from French GAAP, unaudited individual accounts of the 39 Regional Banks
66
Credit Update – February 2017
3. MTP « STRATEGIC
AMBITIONS 2020 » TARGETS
67
Credit Update – February 2017
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION 2020 »TARGETS
Crédit Agricole Group and Crédit Agricole S.A. MTP Targets
Crédit Agricole
Group
Of which
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Revenue growth1
>+1.5%
>+2.5%
2019 cost / income ratio
<60%
<60%
Cost of risk / outstandings
<35bps
<50bps
2019 Net income Group share
>€7.2bn
>€4.2bn
>10%
2019 RoTE
Fully-loaded CET1
16%
TLAC excl. eligible senior debt
22%
50%, in cash
Pay-out ratio
1. 2019 CAGR vs 2015 underlying pro forma for Crédit Agricole Group simplification transaction
68
≥11%
Credit Update – February 2017
MTP « STRATEGIC AMBITION 2020 »TARGETS
MTP Targets by business line
Revenues
2019
1
2015-2019 CAGR Cost / income
~+0.5%
~65%
>16%
Cariparma
~+3%
~55%
>16%
Asset
gathering
Insurance
Asset management
Wealth management
>+3%
<45%
>25%
Specialised
financial
services
Consumer credit
Leasing & Factoring
>+2.5%
<46%
>13%
Large
customers
Corporate &
investment banking
Asset servicing
~+2%
<60%
>11%
Retail
banking
LCL
2019 RoNE2
1. 2019 CAGR vs 2015 underlying pro forma for Crédit Agricole Group simplification transaction and analytical transfer of the cost of the Switch 2 guarantee to Insurance activity
2. RoNE calculated on the basis of a capital allocation tailored to the needs and risks of each business line (see “Profitability - Risk weighted assets and capital allocated by business
line”).
69
Credit Update – February 2017
4. CAPITAL
70
Credit Update – February 2017
CAPITAL
Crédit Agricole Group
Fully loaded
€bn
31/12/2015
31/12/2016
31/12/2015
98.6
92.9
98.6
92.9
Expected dividend payment on result of year Y
(1.0)
(1.1)
(1.0)
(1.1)
Filtered unrealised gains / (losses) (issuer spread, cash flow hedge)
(0.4)
(0.7)
(0.4)
(0.6)
(0)
-
(0.1)
(2.0)
AT1 instruments included in accounting equity
(5.0)
(3.9)
(5.0)
(3.9)
Other regulatory adjustments
(0.6)
(0.3)
(1.9)
(0.3)
91.5
86.9
90.2
85.0
EQUITY, GROUP SHARE (ACCOUNTING AMOUNT)
Transitional treatment of AFS unrealised gains and losses
CAPITAL AND RESERVES GROUP SHARE (REGULATORY AMOUNT)
Minority interests (after partial derecognition)
1.1
1.2
1.7
1.9
Prudent valuation
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
(0.8)
Deductions of goodw ill and other intangible assets
(15.8)
(16.1)
(15.8)
(16.1)
(0)
-
-
-
Other regulatory adjustments 1
(0.6)
(1.5)
(0.5)
(1.2)
COMMON EQUITY TIER 1 (CET1)
75.3
69.7
74.8
68.8
ADDITIONAL TIER 1 (AT1)
5.4
4.4
9.0
8.9
TOTAL TIER 1
80.7
74.1
83.8
77.7
TIER 2
15.8
18.4
16.7
20.5
TOTAL CAPITAL
96.5
92.5
100.5
98.2
RWAs
521.0
509.4
521.0
509.4
CET1 ratio
14.5%
13.7%
14.4%
13.5%
Tier 1 ratio
15.5%
14.5%
16.1%
15.3%
Total capital ratio
18.6%
18.1%
19.3%
19.3%
Amount exceeding the exemption threshold for CET1 instruments of significant financial stakes either >10%
or equity-accounted and for DTA carry-forw ard
1
71
Phased-in
31/12/2016
DTA timing differences, expected loss, deduction of UCIT-owned financial instituions and other transational adjustments
Credit Update – February 2017
CAPITAL
Crédit Agricole S.A. – Fully-loaded CET1 ratio 12.1%
 Fully-loaded CET1 ratio(1): 12.1% at 31/12/2016
Solvency ratio(1) (Basel 3)
Good level of retained earnings: +24bps
20.3%
20.0%
20.1%
17.6%
18.6%
18.6%
Employees capital increase: +8bps
Total amount of the dividend proposed for 2016 already
booked in Q3-16 : €0.60 per share
14.8%
15.1%
13.8%
13.9%
13.7%
12.1%
12.0%
10.7%
Decrease in AFS unrealised gains: -16bps
12.2%
CET1 ratio far above MDA restriction applicable as at
01/01/2019 at 8.5%(2)
 Phased-in total capital ratio(1): 20.1% at 31/12/2016
 Phased-in leverage
ratio(3):
5.0% at 31/12/2016
Dec 15 Sept 16 Dec 16
Fully-loaded CET1
 Conglomerate ratio: >210%
Change in RWAs – Dec. 15 to Dec. 16 (€Bn)
306
8
26
301
8
28
Dec 15 Sept 16 Dec 16
Dec 15 Sept 16 Dec 16
Phased-in Tier 1
Phased-in total ratio
o/w Fully-loaded Tier 1
o/w Fully-loaded total ratio
Change in fully-loaded CET 1 ratio(1) – Sept to December 16
301
8
28
+24bp
+8bp
-16bp
-7bp
Market risk
Operationnal risk
272
265
265
Dec 15
Sept 16
Dec 16
Credit risk
12.0%
11.94%
11.74%
Sept 16
Retained earnings Employees capital
increase
(1)
12.1%
11.86%
AFS reserve
11.75%
Others
(EP/Change)
Dec 16
Including Q4-16 results
proforma 2019 requirements notified by the ECB
(3) As defined in the Delegated Act. Assumption of exemption of intra-group operations for Crédit Agricole S.A. (130bps impact) and of non-exemption of exposures related to the centralisation of CDC deposits,
according to our understanding of information obtained from the ECB
(2)P2R
72
Credit Update – February 2017
CAPITAL
Crédit Agricole S.A.
Fully loaded
in €bn
31/12/2016
31/12/2015
31/12/2016
31/12/2015
EQUITY, GROUP SHARE (ACCOUNTING AMOUNT)
58.3
53.8
58.3
53.8
Expected dividend payment on result of year Y
(1.7)
(0.7)
(1.7)
(0.7)
Filtered unrealised gains / (losses) (issuer spread, cash flow hedge )
(0.5)
(0.6)
(0.5)
(0.6)
0.0
-
(0.9)
(1.3)
AT1 instruments included in accounting equity
(5.0)
(3.9)
(5.0)
(3.9)
Other regulatory adjustments
(0.5)
(0.2)
(0.5)
(0.2)
50.6
48.4
49.7
47.1
Transitional treatment of AFS unrealised gains and losses
CAPITAL AND RESERVES GROUP SHARE (REGULATORY AMOUNT)
Minority interests (after partial derecognition)
2.0
1.8
2.6
2.8
Prudent valuation
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
(0.5)
Deductions of goodw ill and other intangible assets
(15.1)
(15.4)
(15.1)
(15.4)
Amount exceeding the exemption threshold for CET1 instruments of significant financial stakes either >10%
or equity-accounted and for DTA carry-forw ard
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.3)
(0.2)
Other regulatory adjustments 1
(0.2)
(1.0)
(0.1)
(0.8)
COMMON EQUITY TIER 1 (CET1)
36.4
32.8
36.3
33.0
ADDITIONAL TIER 1 (AT1)
5.5
4.4
9.1
8.8
TOTAL TIER 1
41.9
37.2
45.4
41.8
TIER 2
14.2
17.5
15.1
20.2
TOTAL CAPITAL
56.1
54.7
60.5
62.0
RWAs
300.7
305.6
300.7
305.6
CET1 ratio
12.1%
10.7%
12.1%
10.8%
Tier 1 ratio
13.9%
12.2%
15.1%
13.7%
Total capital ratio
18.6%
17.9%
20.1%
20.3%
1
73
Phased in
DTA timing differences, expected loss, deduction of UCIT-owned financial institutions and other transitional adjustments
Credit Update – February 2017
CAPITAL
Non-deduction of insurance holdings
The “Danish compromise”
Non-deduction of insurance holdings according to Article 49(1) CRR

In the case of banks within a financial conglomerate under Directive 2002/87/EC, the CRR provides for a specific prudential treatment of
insurance holdings. As a general rule, Article 36(1) of the CRR envisages that significant holdings in insurance undertakings should be deducted
from banks’ own funds. As an exception to this rule, Article 49(1) of the CRR grants the option to competent authorities, if requested by banks, to
allow them not to deduct such holdings and to risk-weight them instead (100% to 370%), provided that a number of CRR conditions are met.

These departures from Basel III were included early in the elaboration of the CRR as a package known in specialised circles as the “Danish
compromise”, since it was negotiated during the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU.

Crédit Agricole Group received the permission of the competent authorities (ACPR) on 18 October 2013 to use this option for entities within the
Crédit Agricole Assurances scope.
Status quo for the “Danish compromise” in the ECB Regulation
ECB Regulation on the exercise of options and discretions available in Union law

The ECB has the power to exercise the options and discretions available in Union law. It published on 24 March 2016 a Regulation and a Guide
on how to harmonise options and discretions in banking supervision.

The ECB Regulation and Guide do not reconsider previous decisions taken by the competent authority pursuant to Article 49(1) and related
explanatory documents confirm that the ECB does not intend to do so:


Extract from the Draft ECB Guide on options and discretions available in Union law: “With regard to the non-deduction of holdings within the context of Article
49(1) of the CRR, significant credit institutions can expect the following treatment: (i) In cases where permission for non-deduction has already been granted
by the national competent authority prior to 4 November 2014, the credit institutions may continue to not deduct the relevant holdings on the basis of that
permission provided that appropriate disclosure requirements are met.”
Extract from the Explanatory memorandum on the exercise of options and discretions available in Union law: “The Supervisory Board has decided to keep the
status quo, i.e. decisions according to Article 49 of the CRR taken before 4 November 2014 will continue to apply for the time being. Incoming applications for
new decisions will be assessed according to the CRR criteria.”
As a consequence the “Danish compromise” is fully confirmed as its questioning would now necessitate a revision of the CRR on this
particular point, which seems unlikely in the next few years as :

The Commission, which has sole right of initiative in legislative matters, published a “CRR2/CRD5” legislative package on 23 November 2016 .
This legislative proposal deals in particular with options and discretions, but no amendement on article 49(1) was proposed.

If thereafter the Commission decided to initiate a new review of the CRR, it would take place after the “CRR2/CRD5” package currently in
progress and would therefore not start in the short term.
74
Credit Update – February 2017
5. LIQUIDITY
75
Credit Update – February 2017
LIQUIDITY
Crédit Agricole Group – construction of the cash balance sheet
 After netting, the cash balance sheet amounts to €1,085bn at end-December 2016
Assets
1,723 Mds€
Liabilities
1,723 Mds€
41
41
86
66
Other netted balance sheet items (1)
o/w 20
Reverse repos
Derivative instruments – assets & other
necessary elements for the activity
Accruals, prepayments & sundry assets
CDC centralisation
o/w 61
219
11
41
Central Bank deposits (o/w cash & mandatory
reserves)
Interbank assets
Reverse repos & other ST (2)
Securities portfolio
20
Customer-related trading assets (3)
61
189
21
Derivative instruments – liabilities &
other necessary elements for the activity
Accruals, deferred income & sundry
liabilities
40
13
94
132
179
LT market funds (5)
Customer assets
768
699
Customer-related funds (6)
Tangible & intangible assets(4)
51
113
Capital & similar items
Transition from statutory to
prudential scope (exclusion of
insurance activity)
321
321
(1) Deferred tax, JV impacts, collective impairments, short-selling transactions and other assets and liabilities
(2) Netting of repos & reverse repos (excluding MLT repos) + Central Bank refinancing transactions (excluding T-LTRO) + netting of receivables and payables related accounts
(3) Including CDC centralisation and netting of derivatives, margin calls, adjustment/settlement/liaison accounts and non-liquid securities held by CA-CIB
(4) Including fixed assets, equity investments and the netting of miscellaneous debtors & creditors
(5) Including MLT repos & T-LTRO
(6) Including EIB and CDC refinancing and other similar refinancing transactions (backed by customer loans), CDC centralisation and MLT issues placed by the branch networks
NB: CA-CIB’s bank counterparties with which there is a commercial relationship are considered as customers
76
Repos
Credit Update – February 2017
ST market funds
Nettings
6. Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP,
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE S.A. &
REGIONAL BANKS
77
Credit Update – February 2017
Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
Crédit Agricole Group – Q4-16 & 2016 income statement
€m
Revenues
Specific items of
Q4-16
Q4-16
underlying
Q4-15
stated
Specific items of
Q4-15
Q4-15
underlying
D Q4/Q4
underlying
7,904
72
7,831
8,031
251
7,781
+0.7%
(5,187)
(51)
(5,136)
(4,971)
-
(4,971)
+3.3%
Gross operating income
2,716
21
2,695
3,060
251
2,810
(4.1%)
Cost of credit risk
(457)
-
(457)
(693)
-
(693)
(34.0%)
Cost of legal risk
-
-
-
(150)
(150)
-
nm
111
-
111
59
-
59
+88.3%
Operating expenses
Equity-accounted entities
Net income on other assets
(6)
-
(6)
(6)
-
(6)
+1.7%
Change in value of goodwill
(540)
(540)
-
-
-
-
nm
1,824
(519)
2,343
2,270
101
2,170
+8.0%
(1,091)
(462)
(629)
(612)
(42)
(570)
+10.4%
Income before tax
Tax
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations
20
-
20
2
-
2
x 9.8
Net income
753
(980)
1,733
1,660
59
1,602
+8.2%
Non controlling interests
82
(4)
85
96
-
96
(11.3%)
Net income Group Share
671
(977)
1,648
1,564
59
1,506
+9.5%
2016
stated
30,428
Specific items of
2016
(886)
2016
underlying
31,314
2015
stated
31,836
Specific items of
2015
511
2015
underlying
31,325
D 2016/2015
underlying
(0.0%)
(20,226)
(92)
(20,134)
(19,835)
-
(19,835)
+1.5%
Gross operating income
10,201
(978)
11,179
12,001
-
12,001
(2.7%)
Cost of credit risk
(2,312)
-
(2,312)
(2,531)
-
(2,531)
(8.6%)
Cost of legal risk
(100)
-
(100)
(500)
(500)
-
nm
Equity-accounted entities
499
-
499
475
-
475
+5.0%
Net income on other assets
(25)
-
(25)
(5)
-
(5)
x5
Change in value of goodwill
(540)
(540)
-
-
-
-
nm
Income before tax
7,723
(1,518)
9,241
9,440
11
9,429
(2.0%)
(2,582)
(17)
(2,565)
(2,988)
(131)
(2,857)
(10.2%)
31
-
31
(21)
-
(21)
nm
5,172
(1,535)
6,707
6,431
(120)
6,551
+2.4%
€m
Revenues
Operating expenses
Tax
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations
Net income
Non controlling interests
Net income Group Share
78
Q4-16
stated
347
(8)
355
388
1
387
(8.4%)
4,825
(1,527)
6,353
6,043
(121)
6,164
+3.1%
Credit Update – February 2017
Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
Crédit Agricole Group – Specific items Q4-16 & Q4-15 and 2016 & 2015
Specific items of Q4-16
€m
DVA Running (LC)
DVA Running (Corporate centre)
Loan hedges (LC)
Specific items of Q4-15
Gross impact*
Impact on NIGS
Gross impact*
Impact on NIGS
(3)
(2)
(53)
(35)
-
-
50
31
(1)
(1)
(9)
(5)
67
Issuer spreads (Corporate centre)
83
52
100
Eureka (Corporate centre)
(6)
(4)
-
-
-
-
163
151
Alpha Bank indemnity (Corporate centre)
Total im pact on revenues
Cariparma Group adjustment plan (International retail banking)
Total im pact on operating expenses
Additional provision f or legal risk (Corporate centre)
Total im pact on cost of risk
Change in value of goodw ill (Corporate centre)
Total im pact on change of value of goodw ill
Def erred tax revaluation
Tax ef f ects of other specif ic items
Total im pact on tax
72
45
251
209
(51)
(30)
-
-
(51)
(30)
-
-
-
-
(150)
(150)
-
-
(150)
(150)
(540)
(540)
-
-
(540)
(540)
-
-
(453)
(453)
-
-
(11)
-
(42)
-
(11)
(453)
(42)
-
Total im pact of specific item s
(977)
59
* Impact bef ore tax (except line "impact on tax") and bef ore minority interests
Specific items 2016
€m
Specific items 2015
Gross impact*
Impact on NIGS
Gross impact*
DVA running (LC)
(38)
(25)
28
Loan hedges (LC)
(25)
(16)
48
30
Issuer spreads (Corporate centre)
(160)
(102)
272
180
Liability management upf ront payment (Corporate centre)
(683)
(448)
-
-
Adjustment of f unding costs (French retail banking)
(300)
(197)
-
-
-
-
163
151
Alpha Bank indemnity (Corporate centre)
18
Capital gain on VISA EUROPE (Corporate centre)
355
337
-
-
Eureka (Corporate centre)
(34)
(27)
-
-
(886)
(478)
511
379
(41)
(27)
-
-
(51)
(30)
-
-
(92)
(56)
-
-
Additional provision f or legal risk (LC)
-
-
(350)
(350)
Additional provision f or legal risk (Corporate centre)
-
-
(150)
(150)
-
-
(500)
(500)
(540)
(540)
-
-
(540)
(540)
-
-
(453)
(453)
-
-
436
-
(119)
-
436
(453)
(119)
Total im pact on re ve nue s
LCL netw ork optimisation cost (French retail banking)
Cariparma Group adjustment plan (International retail banking)
Total im pact on ope rating e xpe ns e s
Total im pact on cos t of ris k s
Change in value of goodw ill (Corporate centre)
Total im pact on change of value of goodw ill
Def erred tax revaluation
Tax ef f ects of other specif ic items
Total im pact on tax
Total im pact of s pe cific ite m s
(1,527)
* Impact bef ore tax (except line "impact on tax") and bef ore minority interests
79
Impact on NIGS
Credit Update – February 2017
(121)
Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
Crédit Agricole S.A – Q4-16 & 2016 income statement
m€
Revenues
Q4-16 stated
Q4-15
(1)
Specific items
of Q4-15 (1)
Q4-15
underlying
∆ Q4/Q4
underlying
+10.9%
4,580
99
4,480
4,289
251
4,039
(51)
(2,930)
(2,906)
-
(2,906)
+0.8%
Gross operating income
1,598
48
1,550
1,383
251
1,133
+36.9%
Cost of credit risk
(395)
-
(395)
(465)
-
(465)
(15.0%)
-
-
(150)
(150)
-
nm
-
125
37
-
37
x 3.4
nm
Cost of legal risk
Equity-accounted entities
125
Net income on other assets
(6)
-
(6)
36
-
36
Change in value of goodwill
(491)
(491)
-
-
-
-
nm
832
(443)
1,275
841
101
741
+72.3%
x 6.2
Income before tax
Tax
(461)
(179)
(283)
(88)
(42)
(46)
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations
20
-
20
233
231
2
x 9.3
Net income
391
(621)
1,012
986
290
697
+45.3%
Non controlling interests
99
(9)
108
104
-
104
+3.8%
Net income Group Share
291
(612)
904
882
290
593
+52.6%
Specific items
of 2015(1)
2015
underlying
∆ 2016/2015
underlying
+4.4%
En m€
Revenues
Operating expenses
Gross operating income
Cost of credit risk
2016
stated
Specific items of
2016
stated
Equity-accounted entities
2016
underlying
2015
(1)
16,855
(570)
17,425
17,194
511
16,683
(11,695)
(92)
(11,603)
(11,583)
-
(11,583)
+0.2%
5,160
(662)
5,822
5,611
511
5,100
+14.2%
(1,787)
-
(1,687)
(1,793)
-
(1,793)
(5.9%)
-
(100)
(500)
(500)
-
nm
-
518
455
-
455
+14.0%
nm
Cost of legal risk
80
Q4-16
underlying
(2,981)
Operating expenses
(1)
Specific items of
Q4-16 stated
518
Net income on other assets
(52)
-
(52)
38
-
38
Change in value of goodwill
(491)
(491)
-
-
-
-
nm
Income before tax
3,348
(1,153)
4,502
3,811
11
3,800
+18.5%
+25.3%
Tax
(695)
265
(960)
(898)
(131)
(767)
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations
1,303
1,272
31
1,058
1,078
(20)
nm
Net income
3,956
384
3,572
3,971
958
3,013
+18.5%
435
455
(4)
459
(5.2%)
Net income Group Share
3,541
403
3,137
3,516
961
2,555
+22.8%
Proforma
for reclassification of Regional Banks’ contribution
under IFRS(19)
5
Non controlling interests
415
Credit Update – February 2017
Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
Crédit Agricole S.A. results by business line
€m
Asset gathering (Asset
m anagem ent,
insurance and w ealth
m anagem ent)
French retail
banking - LCL
Q4-15
Q4-16
Revenues
1,146
1,294
874
863
649
612
Operating expenses
Gross operating incom e
Cost of risk
Share of net income of equity-accounted
entities
(534)
612
(7)
(555)
739
(1)
(625)
249
(51)
(604)
260
(52)
(430)
219
(145)
(452)
160
(106)
6
8
-
-
-
-
3
1
(1)
1
-
(1)
Net income on other assets
Change in value of goodw ill
Incom e before tax
Tax
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale
operations
Net incom e
Non-controlling interests
Net incom e Group share
€m
Revenues
Operating expenses
Q4-15
International
retail banking
Q4-16
Q4-15
Q4-16
Specialised
financial services
Q4-15
Large custom ers
(CIB and asset
servicing)
Q4-16
Q4-15
Q4-16
657
683
1,053
(332)
325
(113)
(365)
318
(124)
(830)
223
(112)
32
56
(18)
4
-
(8)
Corporate
centre
French retail
banking - Regional
Banks
Q4-16
Group
Q4-15
Q4-16
Q4-15
Q4-15
Q4-16
1,248
(90)
(120)
-
4,289
4,580
(786)
462
(103)
(155)
(245)
(187)
(220)
(340)
(9)
-
(2,906)
1,383
(615)
(2,981)
1,598
(395)
29
17
33
-
37
125
38
(7)
-
36
(6)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(491)
-
-
(491)
614
(189)
747
(273)
197
(73)
209
(66)
74
(18)
53
(14)
248
(63)
249
(57)
85
(3)
388
(110)
(377)
258
(814)
58
-
841
(88)
832
(461)
2
22
-
-
2
(3)
-
-
-
-
-
229
233
20
427
36
496
48
124
6
143
7
58
19
36
13
185
37
193
23
82
6
279
8
(119)
-
(756)
1
229
-
986
104
391
99
391
448
118
136
39
24
148
170
76
271
(119)
(757)
229
882
291
Asset gathering
(Asset m anagem ent,
insurance and w ealth
m anagem ent)
French retail
banking LCL
International
retail banking
Specialised
financial services
Large custom ers
(CIB and asset
servicing)
Corporate
centre
French retail
banking Regional
Banks
2016
Group
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2015
2016
4,614
4,744
3,631
3,118
2,622
2,505
2,629
2,646
5,057
5,190
(1,359)
(1,348)
-
17,194
16,855
(11,695)
(2,156)
(2,156)
(2,561)
(2,539)
(1,532)
(1,557)
(1,336)
(1,384)
(3,136)
(3,187)
(862)
(872)
-
(11,583)
Gross operating incom e
2,458
2,588
1,070
578
1,090
949
1,293
1,262
1,921
2,003
(2,221)
(2,220)
-
5,611
5,160
Cost of risk
Share of net income of equity-accounted
entities
Net income on other assets
(29)
(9)
(134)
(182)
(589)
(454)
(657)
(558)
(655)
(557)
(229)
(27)
-
(2,293)
(1,787)
25
28
-
-
-
-
164
208
60
212
206
71
-
455
518
10
2
(2)
1
2
(1)
4
(2)
(7)
1
31
(54)
-
38
(52)
Change in value of goodw ill
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
(491)
-
-
(491)
Incom e before tax
2,464
2,609
934
397
503
494
804
911
1,319
1,658
(2,213)
(2,721)
-
3,811
3,348
Tax
(844)
(773)
(340)
(110)
(161)
(157)
(213)
(210)
(454)
(370)
1,114
925
-
(898)
(695)
3
23
-
-
(14)
(3)
(1)
-
(2)
11
-
1,272
1,072
1,058
1,303
1,623
1,858
594
287
328
335
590
701
863
1,299
(1,099)
(523)
1,072
3,971
3,956
135
169
29
14
102
102
106
91
33
44
50
(4)
-
455
415
1,488
1,690
565
273
226
233
484
610
830
1,255
(1,149)
(520)
1,072
3,516
3,541
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale
operations
Net incom e
Non-controlling interests
Net incom e Group share
81
Credit Update – February 2017
Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
Regional Banks
€m
Revenues
Specific item s
Q4-16
underlying
Q4-15
Specific item s
Q4-15
underlying
∆ Q4/Q4
∆ Q4/Q4
underlying
(11.6%)
3,271
-
3,271
3,699
-
3,699
(11.6%)
(2,160)
-
(2,160)
(2,027)
-
(2,027)
+6.6%
+6.6%
1,112
-
1,112
1,672
-
1,672
(33.5%)
(33.5%)
(61)
-
(61)
(225)
-
(225)
-73.0%
-73.1%
1
-
1
24
-
24
nm
nm
(0)
-
(0)
(7)
-
(7)
nm
nm
Incom e before tax
1,051
-
1,051
1,464
-
1,464
(28.2%)
(28.2%)
Tax
(646)
(301)
(345)
(519)
-
(519)
+24.5%
(33.6%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
nm
nm
406
(301)
707
945
-
945
(57.1%)
(25.2%)
Operating expenses
Gross operating incom e
Cost of risk
Equity-accounted entities
Net income on other assets
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations
Net incom e
Non-controlling interests
0
-
0
2
-
2
(88.2%)
(90.0%)
405
(301)
707
943
-
943
(57.0%)
(25.1%)
2016
Specific item s
2016
underlying
2015
Specific item s
2015
underlying
∆ 2016/2015
∆ 2016/2015
underlying
Revenues
13,627
-
13,627
14,493
-
14,493
(6.0%)
(6.0%)
Operating expenses
(8,375)
-
(8,375)
(8,117)
-
(8,117)
+3.2%
+3.2%
Gross operating incom e
5,252
-
5,252
6,376
-
6,376
(17.6%)
(17.6%)
Cost of risk
Net incom e Group Share
€m
(619)
-
(619)
(729)
-
(729)
-15.0%
-15.0%
Equity-accounted entities
6
-
6
23
-
23
nm
nm
Net income on other assets
27
-
27
(8)
-
(8)
nm
nm
4,666
-
4,666
5,662
-
5,662
(17.6%)
(17.6%)
(1,877)
(301)
(1,575)
(2,071)
-
(2,071)
(9.4%)
(23.9%)
-
-
-
-
-
-
nm
nm
2,789
(301)
3,090
3,591
-
3,591
(22.3%)
(13.9%)
Incom e before tax
Tax
Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations
Net incom e
Non-controlling interests
Net incom e Group Share
82
Q4-16
1
-
1
2
-
2
(70.0%)
(70.0%)
2,789
(301)
3,090
3,589
-
3,589
(22.3%)
(13.9%)
Credit Update – February 2017
Q4-16 & 2016 RESULTS
Regional Banks
Activity indicators (€bn)
Continued good business momentum supporting
growth in Crédit Agricole S.A. business lines
Customer assets
 Buoyant activity
+4.4%
+4.0%
Strong growth in customer assets still driven by demand
deposits and home purchase savings plans
622
621
626
634
646
253
250
249
252
255
369
371
377
382
391
Dec. 15
March 16
June 16
Sept.16
Dec.16
Continued growth in lending, driven by home loans and
consumer finance markets
Strong momentum in personal and property insurance
 Revenues: +3.1% Q4/Q4(1)
Off-B/S
HPSP of-€194m in Q4-16 (-€203m in 2016) vs. +€170m in Q4-15
(+€1m in 2015)
Interest margin stable excluding HPSP and excluding Eureka
impact (-€97m in Q4-16)
Fee income up +6.2% mainly due to strong insurance business
 Expenses: +6.6% Q4/Q4
Increase reflecting mainly IT investments in line with the MTP
 Underlying NIGS(restated for the impact of deferred tax
revaluation): €707m in Q4-16 and €3,090m in 2016
Excluding effects of operation to simplify Group’s structure (Q4-16 impacts: unwinding of
Switch: -€115m and loan implementation: -€59m) and excluding HPSP
83
411
414
419
424
430
Dec. 15
March 16
June 16
Sept.16
Dec.16
On-B/S
Contribution to Crédit Agricole Group P&L (€m)
m€
Revenues
Q4-16
underlying
∆ Q4/Q4
underlying
2016
underlying
∆ 2016/2015
underlying
(6.0%)
3,271
(11.6%)
13,627
(2,160)
+6.6%
(8,375)
+3.2%
Gross operating incom e
1,112
(33.5%)
5,252
(17.6%)
Cost of risk
(61)
(73.1%)
(619)
(15.0%)
1
(96.3%)
6
(75.7%)
(0)
(94.3%)
27
nm
Pre-tax incom e
1,051
(28.2%)
4,666
(17.6%)
Tax (2)
(345)
(33.6%)
(1,575)
(23.9%)
707
(25.1%)
3,090
(13.9%)
Operating expenses
Share of net income of equity-accounted entites
(1)
Loans outstanding
Net income on other assets
Net incom e Group share
Cost/incom e ratio (%)
(2)
61.5%
Restated for the impact of deferred tax revaluation for -€301m in Q4-16
Credit Update – February 2017
SECTION 9:
CONTACT LIST
84
Credit Update – February 2017
CONTACT LIST
Olivier Bélorgey
Head of the Financial Management Department
+33 1 57 72 18 52
[email protected]
Nadine Fedon
Global Head of Funding
General Manager of Crédit Agricole Home Loan SFH
General Manager of Crédit Agricole Public Sector SCF
+33 1 43 23 48 68
[email protected]
Aurélien Harff
Head, Medium and Long Term Funding / London Desk
+44 207 214 5011
[email protected]
Isabelle Roseau
Head, Covered Bonds Structuring
+33 1 57 72 61 50
[email protected]
Cyril Meilland, CFA
Head of Financial Communications
+33 1 43 23 53 82
[email protected]
Patricia Dambrine
Managing Director, Head, Debt Investor Relations and Ratings
+44 207 214 6983
[email protected]
Aurélie Thiellet
Deputy Head, Debt Investor Relations and Ratings
+33 1 57 72 63 73
[email protected]
Laurence Gascon
Debt Investor Relations and Ratings
+33 1 57 72 38 63
[email protected]
This Credit Update is available on the Group website : http://www.credit-agricole.com/en/Investor-and-shareholder/Debt/Investor-update
85
Credit Update – February 2017