A Comparative Study of Public Support for the Police International Criminal Justice Review Volume 18 Number 4 December 2008 406-434 © 2008 Georgia State University Research Foundation, Inc. 10.1177/1057567708326481 http://icjr.sagepub.com hosted at http://online.sagepub.com Sanja Kutnjak Ivkovic′ Michigan State University I use the data from the International Crime Victimization Survey and the World Values Survey to study the determinants of public support for the police in 28 countries. I find that the respondents’ views of the police, both general confidence and specific ability to control crime, are affected by who the respondents are (gender, age) and by the quality of governance in the country in which they live. Their general views of the police also are related very strongly to what they think about other parts of the government (the armed forces, parliament, and the legal system). Their evaluations of the police ability to control crime are strongly colored by their individual experiences and contacts with the police (crime victimization, fear of crime, being asked to pay a bribe, frequency of seeing police patrols). In addition, police-related characteristics (police size, percentage of women as a measure of heterogeneity of the police, police structure) shape their opinions as well. Keywords: police, confidence, ICVS, WVS Introduction Public support for the police across the world varies from open admiration to unequivocal resentment. Why are the police hated in some countries and highly respected in others? What factors shape public opinion about the police? Prior research has identified a host of individual (e.g., race, gender, education) and neighborhood factors (e.g., fear of crime, extent of disorder) as well as a limited number of police-related factors (e.g., contact with the police). Police-related variables are potentially crucial in explaining the level of confidence in the police, yet prior research has explored very little beyond the basic contact-with-thepolice approach. Although the nature of the contact with the police is indeed highly relevant for how citizens view the police, features of the police agencies themselves—be they metropolitan police departments or centralized national Ministries of the Interior—could be related to impact on the public view as well. The level of confidence in a police agency with decades-long history of human rights abuses and pervasive corruption likely is quite Please address correspondence to Sanja Kutnjak Ivković, School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University, 560 Baker Hall, East Lansing, Michigan 48824; e-mail: [email protected]. 406 Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 407 different from the level of confidence in a police agency that has a history and reputation of a “clean” agency that also protects citizens’ civil rights. Police agencies are not isolated entities; they are integral parts of the society at large. Accordingly, other societal factors also could be related to the way citizens perceive the police. For example, when society tolerates misconduct of government employees and fails to control it, police officers are more likely to be corrupt, milk calls for service, plant evidence, and use excessive force. When insufficient resources are channeled from the state or city budget into the police budget, the numbers of police officers will be too low, the quality of applicants will suffer, hiring processes will be inadequate, training will be shortened, internal control will be sketchy, salaries will be low, and equipment will be obsolete. Such shortcomings are very likely to have adverse consequences on the public satisfaction with, and support for, the police. The Transparency International’s (2007) corruption perception index demonstrates that the level of tolerable standards of governmental corruption varies greatly across the world. It is not difficult to imagine that the acceptable level of police misconduct and the standards of policing may well be related to the views and values within the society at large. In particular, one may expect that governments in the societies that promote higher levels of commitment toward implementing and maintaining efficient services, well-established legal rules enforced on a regular basis, a philosophy of serving the public, a widespread protection of citizens’ civil rights, culture intolerant of misconduct by public employees, operational control mechanisms preventing and punishing misconduct by government employees, freedom of the press, and resources devoted toward control of misconduct by government employees would yield a stronger level of support from the public they serve than governments in the societies unable or unwilling to promote such a system. Given the rich potential embedded in the heterogeneity of legal, political, societal, macroeconomic, and police-related factors surrounding public support for the police, the scope of the prior research studies—which routinely have a narrow focus, be it in connection with specific police departments (e.g., Brandl, Frank, Worden, & Bynum, 1994; Cao, Frank, & Cullen, 1996; Sullivan, Dunham, & Alpert, 1987) or, at best, the level of a single nation (e.g., Brillon, Louis-Guerin, Lamarche, & Crelisten, 1984; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002; Yeo & Budd, 1996)—is inherently limited. Only a comparative perspective would enable the inclusion of country-level variables that would illustrate this heterogeneity. The task of determining key factors related to the development of public confidence in the police is of particular importance today, with a wave of police democratization sweeping through the world. This article provides a unique, cross-cultural insight into the factors that are related to public support for the police in 28 European and North American countries. By design, it is a cross-sectional, multinational, quantitative, and analytic study (see Bennett, 2004, p. 5). The comparative perspective is particularly beneficial in this context because it provides a broader and more comprehensive view than previous studies did. As Fields, Arrigo, and Webb (2005) argue, comparative research can add elements that traditional research cannot: Our typical parochial approach to the study of social problems, especially crime and criminal behavior, is largely inadequate for the study of “world order” problems. One thing we have (or should have) learned is that criminality and criminal justice systems cannot be studied apart Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 408 International Criminal Justice Review from the other “systems” (cultural, political, economic, etc.), nor can they be examined using our typical reductionist approaches. (p. 3) Using the data from the International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS) and the World Values Survey (WVS), the article engages in a detailed empirical analysis of the factors that are related to public opinion about the police, from individual-level and experience-related variables to the police-related variables and macro-level society-wide variables. Countries covered by the study are sufficiently heterogeneous to provide substantial variations in basic socioeconomic indicators, tolerance of misconduct by government employees, and the state of civil rights and liberties. Theoretical Background and Review of Research Public Support for Government Institutions Four decades ago, Easton (1965) introduced the concept of support for political institutions. He differentiated between two types of support: specific support, “a return for the specific benefits and advantages that members of a system experience as part of their membership [in the system],” and diffuse support, which “continues independently of the specific reward which the member may feel he obtains from belonging to the system” (Easton, 1965, p. 125). Diffuse support should be relatively stable over time, whereas specific support may vary and, more strongly, should depend on the outcome of a specific relationship between the government agents and citizens. Dennis (1976) links specific support with the performance of a particular role incumbent within the government institution and the benefits expected or received by the members of the public. On the other hand, he argues that diffuse support “involves a generalization of support for the institution. . . . It is a reservoir of goodwill normally directed toward the institution rather than particular incumbents. It is a regime-level sentiment and support or rejection of institutional authority” (Dennis, 1976, p. 50). Because the level of diffuse support is built through an extensive series of experiences with the authorities, it does not change as rapidly as specific support might. According to Dennis, in general, changes in the level of specific support for particular role incumbents typically would have no substantial effect on the level of diffuse support for the institution, unless there was “a sharp rise or fall in specific support, or repeated situations of high or low specific support, [which] can have a marked impact on the level of diffuse institutional support” (Dennis, 1976, p. 50). Thus, although a single incident should not substantially affect the level of diffuse support, consistent underperformance and chronic decrease in the level of specific support will eventually lead toward a decrease in the level of diffuse support as well (Easton, 1965). A few studies incorporated measures of both specific and diffuse support (Bouma, 1973; Brandl et al., 1994; Furstenberg & Wellford, 1973; Kaminski & Jefferis, 1998; Walker et al., 1972; White & Menke, 1982). More specifically, some of these studies examined possible differences in the extent of support for the police depending on whether the questions tapped specific or diffuse support. On a sample of more than 10,000 high school students in Michigan, Bouma (1973) observed that general attitudes were more positive than the specific ones. He varied questions tapping specific attitudes, from those involving others Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 409 (“police try not to arrest innocent people”) to those that are more personal in nature (“police don’t even give you a chance to explain” and “police accuse you of things you didn’t even do”). He concluded that “the closer the question approached situations which the student perceived to be real to him, the greater the possibility that he would view the police operations negatively” (Bouma, 1973, p. 222). White and Menke (1982) asked a series of questions about public attitudes toward the police, ranging from very general ones measuring diffuse support to very specific ones measuring specific support. The results of their study indicated that the reservoir of goodwill directed toward the police in general was larger than the reservoir of goodwill directed toward the specific, performance-related items: “Items eliciting evaluations of a general nature show the public as supportive of the police, while items of a specific nature show much less public support” (White & Menke, 1982, p. 211). The authors pointed out that these general and specific questions “assess different universes of meaning” (White & Menke, 1982, p. 227). In a more recent study, Kaminski and Jefferis (1998) argued that it is possible that the differences between opinions resulting from the questions tapping into diffuse support and those resulting from the questions tapping into specific support are “not due to the specificity of the survey questions, but rather to the effects of a critical incident” (p. 683). The results of their own study showed that a televised use-of-force arrest had no impact on any measure of the Cincinnati respondents’ diffuse support; its effect was limited to just one aspect of specific support (the perceptions of the police use of excessive force) and to a subset of their Cincinnati sample (non-White residents; Kaminski & Jefferis, 1998). In accordance with Easton’s (1965) predictions, which repeated that specific incidents can affect the level of diffuse support, it seems that the overall reservoir of goodwill held by non-White residents in the study by Kaminski and Jefferis (1998) was not only lower, but also less robust to the effect of a single incident. Furstenberg and Wellford (1973) attempted to measure the mutual impact of diffuse and specific support. They concluded that general attitudes toward the police have a stronger impact on the specific ratings of quality of service than the other way round. Brandl et al. (1994) further expanded this type of study by using panel data. Their findings supported some of Easton’s (1965) and Dennis’s (1976) basic propositions. First, their measurements indicated that diffuse support for the police had been relatively stable over a period of 6 years. Second, whereas they also found that diffuse and specific attitudes had an impact on each other, the effects of general attitudes on specific attitudes were stronger than vice versa. Public Support for the Police Whereas the theory differentiates between diffuse and specific support for the police, as a rule, the policing literature routinely addressed either the issue of diffuse support or the issue of specific support. Broadly speaking, the confidence-related questions addressed in the literature range on a continuum from the very general ones, such as the level of confidence in the police or the evaluations of the job the police were doing (e.g., Correia, Reisig, & Lovrich, 1996; Reiss, 1967; Walker et al., 1972), to the fairly specific ones. The latter ranged from the ones about providing safety in the area (Brillon et al., 1984; Cao et al., 1996); maintaining order, protecting property, and protecting against crime (Cao et al., 1996); and respecting citizens’ rights (Brillon et al., 1984), to the responsiveness, promptness in answering emergency Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 410 International Criminal Justice Review calls (Brillon et al., 1984; Cao et al., 1996), courtesy and equality in treatment (Reisig & Correia, 1997), general demeanor of police officers (Webb & Marshall, 1995), availability of information and leisure programs for young people, and quality of various programs (see, e.g., Brillon et al., 1984; Reisig & Correia, 1997; Reisig & Parks, 2000). As a general rule, it seems that studies tended to rely more on some form of specific support for the police than on the diffuse one. Heterogeneity of the questions asked across the studies and the inclusion of both specific and diffuse questions in some of the studies make it very cumbersome and complicated to follow the dichotomy of specific support and diffuse support in the section of the article that discusses the impact of various correlates of public support for the police. Thus, I focus on the correlates of support for the police regardless of the types of the questions asked in the study and use the more general term public support instead. Most of the research studies that examine public support for the police, particularly the projects that provide an in-depth exploration of various factors related to public opinion, have been conducted in the United States. The researchers have primarily explored the impact of the respondents’ demographic characteristics, their experience with the police, and the neighborhood effects. Compared with the other factors, the effects of police-related variables (other than the contact with the police) and society-wide factors have been studied relatively rarely. Respondents’ Demographic Characteristics Analyses reported in previous studies of public opinion about the police typically include several demographic characteristics such as gender, age, race, and socioeconomic status. The underlying rationale for considering gender is that, as a consequence of different gender roles and the associated socialization processes and different experiences with the police, women and men might express different levels of support for the police. The official rates (see, e.g., Pastore & Maguire, 2002, p. 354) indeed suggest that men (still) substantially outnumber women in official statistics of crimes known to the police and, thus, are likely to have more frequent contact with the police than women are. Empirical studies of public opinion about the police range from those that find no gender effect (e.g., Garofalo, 1977; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jesilow, Meyer, & Namazzi, 1995; Murty, Roebuck, & Smith, 1990; Reisig & Parks, 2000, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; Walker et al., 1972; Weitzer & Tuch, 2006), to those that find a weak effect (e.g., Decker, 1981; Percy, 1980), to those that report that the effect is strong (e.g., Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Hadar & Snortum, 1975; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002). Also, although sometimes there was no gender effect per se reported in a study, gender could become a significant factor in the interactions involving, for example, gender, age, and race (see Weitzer & Tuch, 2006). Because older individuals are much less likely to be represented in the crime rates than the younger ones, at least partially because of the aging-out process and the stronger attachments to conventional society, they are more likely to be supportive of the police than younger individuals are. Findings of research studies on the age effect support this hypothesis (Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Garofalo, 1977; Hadar & Snortum 1975; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jesilow et al., 1995; Murty et al., 1990; Percy, 1980; Reisig & Correia, 1997; Reisig & Parks, 2000, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; van Dijk, Mayhew, & Killias, 1990; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002). Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 411 Finally, race or ethnicity (e.g., African American in the United States, Arabic descent in France, Indians in the United Kingdom, Roma in Europe) may be related to the level of support for the police, with the members of the majority group being more satisfied with the police than the members of the minority groups. Potentially divergent opinions may stem from heterogeneous experiences and cultural norms and expectations. The police may treat minority citizens differently, including more frequent searches (but not more frequent questioning or chasing; Erez, 1984), stops and arrests (e.g., Harris, 1997; Tuch & Weitzer, 1997), or failure to investigate (see, e.g., Secic v. Croatia Judgement, 2007), all of which might induce perceptions of injustice and differential treatment. Since the President’s Commission on Law Enforcement (1967) and the Kerner Commission (National Advisory Commission, 1968) in the United States, research studies have found that race unequivocally matters in the context of analyzing public opinion about the police: African American respondents seem less satisfied with and less confident in the local police than White respondents are (e.g., Albrecht & Green, 1977; Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Flanagan & Vaughn, 1996; Garofalo, 1977; Hadar & Snortum, 1975; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jacob, 1971; Jesilow et al., 1995; Kaminski & Jefferis, 1998; Peek, Lowe, & Alston, 1981; Reisig & Parks, 2000, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; Scaglion & Condon, 1980; Tuch & Weitzer, 1997; Walker et al., 1973; Webb & Marshall, 1995; Weitzer & Tuch, 1999, 2002). Some studies report that the race effect disappears or weakens substantially once various neighborhood characteristics, such as fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and informal collective security, are taken into consideration (see, e.g., Cao et al., 1996; Reisig & Parks, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998). Various measures of socioeconomic status (e.g., education, occupation, income, occupational prestige, type of residence) yield mixed results. Some studies find that the more educated respondents express a more positive image of the police or are more supportive of the police than the less educated respondents are (e.g., Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Murty et al., 1990; Reisig & Parks, 2000, 2002), several other studies report no differences with respect to the respondents’ education (e.g., Correia et al., 1996; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; Walker et al., 1973), and still others report that the more educated respondents have less positive opinions about the police (e.g., Weitzer & Tuch, 1999). Income, as a measure of socioeconomic status, also does not produce a clear distinction: Cao et al. (1996), Garofalo (1977), and Walker et al. (1973) report a positive relation between income and confidence in the police, whereas Scaglion and Condon (1980) find no relation. In the present study, I employ measures of gender and age. Contact With the Police Some studies (e.g., Winfree & Griffiths, 1977) suggest that involuntary contacts— contacts initiated by the police, such as being arrested or receiving a traffic ticket—have a stronger impact on the public opinion about the police than voluntary contacts—contacts initiated by the citizens, such as requesting police service or reporting victimization. Moreover, whereas involuntary contacts erode the individual’s opinion about the police, voluntary contacts do not substantially improve it (Jacob, 1971). Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 412 International Criminal Justice Review Other studies (see, e.g., Carter, 1985) find that, regardless of the nature of contacts (i.e., voluntary or involuntary), as the number of contacts with the police increases, the level of satisfaction decreases. Thus, it is quite possible that the nature of the contact may not have as much impact on the level of public opinion about the police as the satisfaction with the contact does. Indeed, several studies confirm this conclusion (see, e.g., Correia et al., 1996; Reisig & Parks, 2000). Correia et al. (1996) report that “in terms of whether or not the contact was voluntary or involuntary, the results show that, regardless of the type of initiation, unsatisfactory treatment of the individual decreases the likelihood of positive perceptions of the state police” (p. 19). Thus, although certain types of contacts are more likely than others to generate dissatisfaction (see, e.g., Skogan, 1996), it seems that having any contact with the police results in more negative attitudes (Yeo & Budd, 2000; see also Dean, 1980) because the chances of a negative contact and/or unsatisfactory contact increase. The most frequently studied type of voluntary contact occurs when a person becomes a crime victim and decides to report the victimization to the police. Reporting the victimization to the police further erodes the overall satisfaction with the police (e.g., Homant, Kennedy, & Fleming, 1984). Poister and McDavid (1978) report that the overall satisfaction with the police is related to the satisfaction with the response time and satisfaction with the initial investigation, as well as to the initiation and the quality of the subsequent investigation and the likelihood of an arrest. Similarly, Shapland et al. (1985) report that the victims’ “lack of knowledge of what was happening to the case and, for a few, the consequent feeling that the police did not care and were not doing anything” are detrimental for the victims’ opinions about the police (p. 85). However, prior studies have shown that what matters is not only the treatment, but also the outcome of these cases. The 1996 ICVS results demonstrate that the respondents from a number of European and North American countries who were victimized and were dissatisfied with their reporting experiences related reasons for their dissatisfaction to both procedural-justice issues (e.g., lack of interest in pursuing the case, impoliteness, slow to arrive) and substantive-justice issues (e.g., the offender was not caught, the property was not recovered; van Dijk, 1996, p. 39). The results of the 1998 British Crime Survey support the same argument: Yeo and Budd (2000) found that the “police received higher ratings when they: recovered all or some of the victim’s property (77%), charged the offender (73%), [and] had face-to-face contact with the victim (66%)” (p. 3). In the present study, I use several variables that measure contact with the police: victimization experience, experience of being asked to pay a bribe to a government official, including a police officer, and frequency of seeing the patrols. Neighborhood Factors The results reported by Cao et al. (1996), Reisig and Parks (2002), and Reisig and Giacomazzi (1998) suggest that the level of safety, fear of crime, and extent of disorder in the community may have an additional impact on the overall satisfaction with the police. Residents living in low-income, high-crime neighborhoods are most likely to experience a negative contact with the police, have lower expectations of police service, have higher level of fear of crime, and dislike the neighborhood. All these factors could be related to their opinions about the police (see, e.g., Dunham & Alpert, 1988; Jesilow et al., 1995; Murty et al., 1990; Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 413 Reisig & Parks, 2002; Walker et al., 1973). Once internalized as part of the neighborhood culture, these opinions are further echoed to reinforce negative attitudes toward the police (Decker, 1985, p. 94). Similarly, a Slovenian study reports that the feeling of safety and visibility of the police are the two key variables affecting the views about the quality of police service (Pavlovic, 1998, p. 553). In the present study, I incorporate a Fear-Of-Crime scale and a variable measuring informal collective security. The nature of the data is such that we do not have these measures are not available at the neighborhood level, but at the level of individual respondents. Police-Related Factors Although several potentially relevant police-related concepts can be operationalized and measured (e.g., the heterogeneity and size of the police; availability of resources and equipment; quality of administration, recruitment, training, and supervision; operation of the internal control mechanisms; and the norms of the police culture), most of the existing studies focus on one or few police agencies and thereby implicitly disregard the potential influence of police-related factors. One of the defining police-related factors tied to public support for the police is the nature of the official roles or functions performed by the police. In particular, if police tasks are defined primarily as the protection of the existing totalitarian regime and/or if the police are in charge of enforcing unpopular, biased, or discriminatory laws, the level of support for the police tends to be low. The results of the ICVS yield some support for the hypothesis that the nature of police roles is related to the public opinion about the police. Van Dijk et al. (1990, p. 71) report that support for the police was weaker in Poland than in any of the 15 industrialized nations included in the survey. Subsequent analyses of the survey data further suggest that the public in the countries in transition does not perceive the police as doing a good job in controlling crime (Zvekic, 1996, p. 55). Public opinion about the police could also be related to the way the police perform their official functions. Overly aggressive, discriminatory, or corrupt police agencies generally induce a lower level of support by the public at large. Racial profiling studies and studies about other forms of police misconduct yield similar conclusions: The respondents who perceive the police to engage in misconduct more frequently are also less likely to express strong support for the police (see, e.g., Benson, 1981; Dean, 1980; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; Soo Son et al., 1996). When incidents of police misconduct are highly publicized by the media, they seem to have not only direct, short-term effects on public support for the police, but also sizeable long-term effects. Based on the results of a series of national opinion polls, Tuch and Weitzer (1997, p. 647) conclude that wellpublicized incidents of police brutality are strongly related to the levels of public support for the police, both at the national and at the local level. In their subsequent study, Weitzer and Tuch (2006) report that serial or ongoing exposure to negative media reporting on the police was one of the most consistent factors related to public support for the police. However, with the exception of the studies by Kaminski and Jefferis (1998) and Weitzer and Tuch (2006), the current literature does not have a firm grasp of the actual short-term and long-term effects of well-publicized incidents on specific and diffuse support for the police. Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 414 International Criminal Justice Review In the present study, I include measures of police size and an approximation of police heterogeneity (percentage of women in the agency). A number of other variables are highly correlated and thus will not be entered into the analyses. Instead, I include a measure of quality of governance that incorporates several of these police-related variables. Society-Wide Factors As discussed earlier, although countries can be quite heterogeneous in terms of the factors potentially relevant for the public opinion about the police (e.g., legal, socioeconomic, political, and historical frameworks; level of tolerance for police misconduct or misconduct by government employees in general; the existence and quality of the external control mechanisms; resources devoted to the control of misconduct; extent of the freedom of the press; the degree of protection for citizens’ civil rights and liberties), prior research almost exclusively focused on only one or a few police agencies in a single country. Strangely enough, the importance of the countrywide factors is illustrated by the findings of a onecountry study conducted by Brown and Coulter (1983). They asked the respondents living in different sections of a midsize city in Alabama (and thus potentially experiencing different quality of police and other government service, just like the residents in different countries might) to evaluate the quality of their local government. They reported that “the most consistent and significant variable in explaining citizen satisfaction with response time, treatment by police, and the belief that the police protection in one’s neighborhood is better than in others, is satisfaction with the quality of local government” (p. 54). Quite possibly, “the manner in which public officials and institutions acquire and exercise the authority to shape public policy and provide public goods and services” (World Bank, 2007, p. 1) is probably strongly related to how citizens in the country perceive these institutions of the government. Quality of governance, perhaps not surprisingly, differs greatly across the world (see Kaufman, Kraay, & Mastruzzi, 2007). Rothstein and Stolle (2001, p. 7) develop a theory of the relation between the trust and the quality of the government. They argue that “despite different political leanings in government, people are able (or not) to trust that institutions responsible for the implementation of public policies are run and guided by the principles of impartiality and fairness.” Furthermore, they write as follows: The argument here is that if we have reason to believe that government institutions responsible for implementing laws and policies behave according to the principles of fairness and impartiality, we may trust them with our demands for education, social insurance, health care, protection from crime and other essentially private goods. This logic is easy enough to follow: it makes no sense to pay your taxes if you think that the tax authorities are discriminating against you or are heavily corrupt. You would not take your dispute to a court if you did not trust the judge to be impartial and to follow the universal rules guaranteeing equality before the law; or if you had to, you would maybe try to bribe a judge in your favor. . . . Again, people are not likely to trust political institutions because they think the officials will act in their interests as their agents. Instead, they will trust public institutions if they have reason to believe that they are fair, impartial and competent. (Rothstein & Stolle, 2001, p. 10) Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 415 The most extensive and comprehensive measure of quality of government or governance is developed by the World Bank. Whereas the concept of governance cannot be measured directly, the researchers within the World Bank have developed six aggregate indicators of governance (voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) based on the data from 30 organizations (Kaufman & Kraay, 2008, p. 18). The World Bank indicators have not been used previously to assess the relation between the level of support for the police and quality of governance. Following this argument about the quality of governance, it comes as no surprise that a few prior studies (Albrecht & Green, 1977; Cao et al., 1998; Cao & Zhao, 2005; Stack & Cao, 1998) find that the confidence in the police is strongly related to the confidence in other parts of the government. Cao and Zhao (2005) analyze the confidence in the police in 17 Latin American countries and develop a specific variable measuring confidence in the government—trust in the political system. It was composed of the respondents’ trust and confidence in other government institutions—namely, the armed forces, legal system, political parties, parliament, and the civil service. Their results show that trust in the political system is the most important explanatory variable in the model of support for the police (Cao & Zhao, 2005, p. 410). The survey of the existing comparative studies is rather short. The studies use the data that originated from one of the two data sources: the WVS (e.g., Cao, 2001; Cao & Zhao, 2005; Stack & Cao, 1998) or the ICVS (e.g., van Dijk et al., 1990; Kesteren et al., 2000; Zvekic, 1996). The WVS contains a question that measures diffuse support, whereas the ICVS targets specific support. Cao and colleagues use WVS data to explore diffuse support for the police in 17 European countries (Stack & Cao, 1998), in Germany and the United States (Cao, 2001), and 9 Latin American countries (Cao and Zhao, 2005). Compared to the respondents from the United States, Stack and Cao (1998) write that “the public in Britain, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and Norway have higher confidence in the police,” whereas “the public in Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Japan show lower confidence in the police” (p. 74). Their analyses show that political conservatism, age, social class, and marriage are positively related to confidence in the police, whereas education is negatively related to confidence in the police. In their study on Latin American countries, Cao and Zhao (2005) indeed find a range of levels of confidence in the police. They also report that trust in the government is the strongest predictor of confidence in the police. The focus of the ICVS studies has been primarily on determining the degree to which confidence in the police differs across countries (although countries included in each sweep of the survey vary), with very limited analysis of the factors that affect public opinion. According to the first sweep of the ICVS, conducted in 1989, van Dijk et al. (1990, p. 71) reported that the support for the police was weaker in Poland, Switzerland, Spain, and Belgium than in any of the other 12 industrialized nations included in the survey. Although van Dijk et al. (1990, p. 72) considered several variables that may affect the level of confidence in the police, none of those variables measured the heterogeneity of the states or police agencies. They concluded, just like most studies conducted in the United States did, that age and victimization experience are related to the respondents’ opinions. In the analyses of the two subsequent sweeps (in 1992 and 1996/1997), Zvekic (1996) focuses only on the countries in transition and reports that, with few exceptions (e.g., Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 416 International Criminal Justice Review Slovenia and the Slovak Republic), the public in a number of countries in transition consistently evaluate the police as not doing a good job in controlling crime. Zvekic (1996) reports that the respondents from Albania, Romania, Georgia, and Yugoslavia were more likely to express more confidence in the police than the respondents from Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, or the Czech Republic were. The results from the subsequent 2000 sweep show that the police performance was most positively evaluated in Canada and the United States, followed by Scotland, Australia, England and Wales, Finland, Switzerland, and Northern Ireland (Kesteren et al., 2000, pp. 75-76). The lowest confidence was noted in the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, and France (van Kesteren et al., 2000, pp. 75-76). The most recent sweep (2004/2005) explores the level of support for police in 30 countries (van Dijk, van Kesteren, & Smit, 2007). The findings indicate that the level of support for the police also varies greatly across the 30 countries, from more than 80% of the respondents in countries such as Finland, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, and Austria showing substantial support for the police to less than one-half of the respondents doing the same in Estonia, Mexico, and Poland (van Dijk et al., 2007, p. 142). The analyses of the ICVS data to date primarily focus on showing the victims’ dissatisfaction with the reporting experience and the overall satisfaction with the police efforts to control crime, without providing in-depth analyses of the countrywide or police agency–related factors that could be related to the public opinion about the police. In the present study, I include a complex index measuring quality of governance. It incorporates measures of freedom to participate in the government, government effectiveness, the rule of law, and control of corruption. Data and Measures Data The data I use in the study come from the second (1992-1994) and third (1996/1997) sweeps of the ICVS and the third (1995-1997) sweep of the WVS. The third sweep of the ICVS (1996-1997) focused on 12 industrialized countries, 12 developing countries, and 20 countries in transition. In all industrialized countries, the survey was carried out on a national sample by computer-assisted telephone interviewing, whereas researchers in most countries in transition used face-to-face interviewing. The surveys conducted in countries in transition mostly focused on large cities (for the description of methodology see, e.g., Nieuwbeerta, 2002; van Dijk, 1999; van Dijk et al., 1990; Zvekic, 1996). To ameliorate the potential effect of the different nature of samples (nationwide in developed countries and mostly large cities in countries in transition) on the results and to enhance comparability, for countries in which nationwide samples were collected, I use only the part of the sample coming from large cities. The third wave of the WVS (1995-1997) covered 53 countries and was distributed in an even larger number of countries in transition (18). All interviews were carried out face-to-face, and samples were national stratified samples (for a description of the methodology see, e.g., Inglehart, 2000). The choice of countries selected for the analyses is governed by three criteria. First, the nature of the analyses requires that countries be included both in the ICVS and the WVS.1 Second, because public opinion could change over longer periods of time, countries Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 417 Table 1 Countries Included in the Study ICVS Urban Sample Size Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia England and Wales Estonia Finland France Georgia Hungary Italy Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Netherlands Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine United States Yugoslavia Total 413 999 223 1,076 666 930 560 387 999 175 567 756 554 1,011 654 700 427 1,007 1,000 1,018 1,105 1,033 920 226 87 1,000 202 1,094 19,788 Percentage of the ICVS Sample 2.1 5.0 1.1 5.4 3.4 4.7 2.8 2.0 5.0 0.9 2.9 3.8 2.8 5.1 3.3 3.5 2.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.6 5.1 4.7 1.1 0.4 5.1 1.0 5.5 100.0 WVS Sample Size Percentage of the WVS Sample 1,460 2,092 2,792 1,072 1,730 1,196 1,093 1,021 987 1,002 2,593 999 2,018 1,200 1,009 995 1,017 1,153 1,103 2,040 466 1,007 1,211 1,009 1,212 2,811 1,542 1,520 39,350 3.7 5.3 7.1 2.7 4.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 6.6 2.5 5.1 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.8 5.2 1.2 2.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 7.1 3.9 3.9 100.0 Note: ICVS = International Crime Victimization Survey; WVS = World Values Survey. selected for the analyses should have been surveyed within a shorter time frame. This is especially true for countries in transition, in which a mere 10-year span from 1990 to 2000 encompasses extensive political, legal, economic, and social changes. The third wave of the ICVS (1996/1997) is also the wave that incorporated the largest number of European and North American countries, both established democracies and countries in transition. Although a similar number of established democracies were surveyed in the first three waves, and a number of them participated in two or all three of those waves, I selected the established democracies that participated in the most recent of the three waves to match the data from the countries in transition. The exceptions are Belgium, Italy, and Spain, for which the data come from the 1992-1994 survey because these countries did not participate in the 1996/1997 wave. The third criterion is that socioeconomic and other standard indicators, such as crime indicators or the percentage of women in the police force, should be available for the countries included in the analyses. Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 418 International Criminal Justice Review The data set ultimately consists of the respondents from 28 European and North American countries (Table 1). To adjust for the effect of unequal sample sizes across countries in the ICVS data set, I use weighted samples. The ICVS codebook suggests that the sample from each country is weighted to include approximately 1,000 cases. Similarly, the WVS samples were weighted to include approximately 1,500 respondents per country. Measures Dependent Variables The question about general support for the police asked the WVS respondents to express the level of confidence they had in the police. I coded the answers a great deal or a lot of confidence in the police as 1 and the answers not very much and none at all as 0. On the other hand, the ICVS question about specific support for the police asked the respondents to specify how good a job the police were doing in controlling crime in the area. I coded the answer good job as 1 and not a good job as 0, and excluded answers “don’t know” from further analyses. Independent Variables Contact with the police. Prior research has indicated that the experience of reporting crime to the police decreases the level of confidence in the police (see, e.g., Homant et al., 1984). Respondents in the ICVS were asked about their victimization experience. For five typical street crimes common across the globe—burglary, robbery, assault, sexual offenses, and theft of property from a car—the ICVS questionnaires allowed the interviewers to ask the respondents more detailed follow-up questions about their experiences (e.g., whether they reported the crime to the police; if they did not report, they were asked to provide reasons for not reporting). In the analyses, I categorized the respondents into those who were victimized and did report their victimization to the police, those who were victimized and did not report their victimization to the police, and those who were not victimized. The ICVS contains two questions about participation in corrupt transactions, another type of contact with the police. The respondents were asked whether a government official asked them to pay a bribe and, if so, what type of government official it was (one listed option is police officers). In the analyses, I classified the respondents into three groups: those who said that they were not asked to pay a bribe, those who said that they were asked to pay a bribe by a police officer, and those who said that they were asked to pay a bribe by another government official. The ICVS also contains a question about the frequency with which the respondents noticed police patrols and, thus, had opportunities to observe and interact with police officers. Neighborhood factors. Previous literature suggests that citizens in communities characterized by a high level of disorder are likely to experience high fear of crime (see Skogan, 1990, p. 77). The ICVS respondents were asked a series of three questions about their fear of crime and related behavior (feeling safe after dark; avoiding certain areas by night; and estimating chances that over the next 12 months someone will break into their home). For the first two variables (feeling safe after dark and avoiding certain areas by night), I coded Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 419 the answers very safe and fairly safe as 0 and the answers a bit unsafe and very unsafe as 1. For the third variable (estimating chances that over the next 12 months someone will break into their home), I coded the answers very likely and likely as 1 and not likely as 0. I combined the answers to the three questions into the Fear-Of-Crime scale: The overall score could range from 3 (a score of 1 on each of the three questions), indicating the highest level of fear of crime, to 0, indicating the lowest level of fear of crime. Communities characterized by disorder also have a low level of informal collective security in the community (see Cao et al., 1996, p. 7). In the analyses, I use answers that the ICVS respondents provided when asked an indirect question about this issue: Would they ask a neighbor or another caretaker to watch their residence if they were out of town for a day or two? Police-related factors. The police across the world can differ in a number of ways, including the way in which they treat citizens, appreciation for their human rights, public accountability, and transparency of their work. Unfortunately, a worldwide data set that would provide such level of detail does not exist. In the absence of such information, another option would be to rely on citizen and/or expert opinions, which, by their nature, are more subjective measures. Previous research (e.g., Benson, 1981; Dean, 1980; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002) has demonstrated that knowledge about actual police misconduct or perceptions of its prevalence are related to public support for the police. One indirect measure of the level of police misconduct could be the extent to which civil liberties in a country are respected (discussed under the society-wide factors); countries that rank the highest on the civil liberties part of the Freedom in the World survey “come closest to the ideals expressed in the civil liberties checklist, including freedom of expression, assembly, association, and religion” (Freedom House, 2000, p. 6). Another indirect measure could be the transparency international corruption perceptions index (CPI), which ranks countries based on the perceived extent of corruption in a country. Such measures, however, are highly correlated and are a potential source of multicollinearity issues. To avoid such problems, I use Kaufman’s measure of governance (described under society-wide factors). It incorporates the measures of both civil liberties and corruption. The data for the police size come from the fifth UN survey and are provided by the HEUNI (European Institute for Crime Prevention and Control) as the number of police (sworn and civilian) per 100,000 inhabitants in 1994. The data are available for 24 countries and are not available for Belarus, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Yugoslavia. The subsequent UN surveys contained additional data for Belarus (ninth survey) and Georgia (seventh survey).2 Bulgaria and Yugoslavia did not provide the data on the size of their police force on either of the most recent surveys (fifth through ninth surveys). I tried to find the data in alternative sources: The Encyclopedia of Law Enforcement (Sullivan & Haberfeld, 2005) contains the information necessary to calculate the rate for Yugoslavia (composed of Serbia and Montenegro at the time). An additional Internet search, which included the search of the Bulgarian Ministry of the Interior Web page, did not yield the number of police officers in Bulgaria. Consequently, I substituted the overall mean for Bulgaria. The percentage of women in policing, a proxy for the heterogeneity of the police, relies on the figures provided by the fifth UN survey. Despite potential problems associated with this measure (e.g., whether only sworn personnel are included, and police discrimination may occur on a racial/ethnic basis rather than gender), this is the best measure available to Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 420 International Criminal Justice Review date. The data for Italy and Poland come from the sixth UN survey, and the data for the Netherlands come from the HEUNI (Kangaspunta, 1994). Furthermore, the four countries that did not disclose the overall number of police officers did not provide the percentage of female police officers either. I found Serbia’s percentage of women in the police in the World Police Encyclopedia (Das & Palmiotto, 2006) and the Georgian one in the seventh UN survey (United Nations, 2008). For Belarus and Bulgaria, the results of the ninth UN survey about the percentage of women in the police were not available, and subsequent Internet search did not yield this percentage; accordingly, I substituted the overall mean for these two countries. Society-wide factors. A variety of indicators could be used to measure the extent of economic and social development, including the traditional ones such as the gross domestic product, literacy level, population density, or income levels (see, e.g., Newman & Howard, 1999, p. 18). Not surprisingly, a number of these measures—the GDP (gross domestic product), the human development index (HDI), status of civil liberties (Civil Liberties), and the CPI (see also Newman & Howard, 1999, p. 18)—are highly correlated among themselves. The correlation coefficients of .80 or stronger clearly indicate that strong multicollinearity would confound the analyses. However, Kaufman’s index of governance or “the manner in which public officials and institutions acquire and exercise the authority to shape public policy and provide public goods and services” (World Bank, 2007, p. 1) incorporates six different indicators, a number of which include similar or the same measures. More specifically, Kaufman et al. (2007, p. 3) include six measures of governance: Voice and accountability (VA) measures the extent to which a country’s citizens are able to participate in selecting their government as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media. Political stability and absence of violence (PV) measures perceptions of the likelihood that the government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including domestic violence and terrorism. Government effectiveness (GE) measures the quality of public services, the quality of the civil services and the degree of independence from political pressures, the quality of police formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies. Regulatory quality (RQ) measures the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development. Rule of law (RL) measures the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society and, in particular, the quality of contract enforcement, the police, and the courts, and the likelihood of crime and violence. Control of corruption (CC) measures the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as “capture” of the state by elites and private interests. The data come from 33 sources, constructed by 30 different organizations (Kaufman et al., 2007, pp. 2, 27). Based on an unobserved components model methodology, they construct aggregate indicators for each of the six measures. The methodology of constructing each of these six dimensions is explained in detail in Kaufman et al. (2007). I use four out of six measures of governance (VA, GE, RL, and CC) that I regard as critical to the study of public confidence in the police. VA incorporates measures of human rights and civil liberties; Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 421 GE measures the quality of public service; RL measures the extent to which civil servants’ actions, including the police ones, are in accordance with the law; and, finally, CC measures the extent of corruption. To avoid multicollinearity problems, I created a scale— Governance—composed of the four indices (Cronbach’s α = .972). As Kaufman et al. (2007) emphasize, “a useful role of the aggregate indicators is that they allow us to summarize in a compact way the diversity of information on governance available for each country, and so make comparisons across countries and over time” (p. 16). Prior studies (Albrecht & Green, 1977; Cao et al., 1998; Cao & Zhao, 2005; Stack & Cao, 1998) have indicated that the trust in the police is strongly related to trust in the other parts of the same government. In fact, Cao and Zhao (2005) showed that the trust in the political system is the most important explanatory variable in the model of support for the police (Cao & Zhao, 2005, p. 410). The WVS data set also features a set of questions about confidence in other government institutions, particularly the level of confidence in the armed forces, the legal system, and the parliament. I use these variables in the empirical analyses; their dichotomization is implemented in the same manner as the one for the dependent variable in the analyses concerning the general support for the police. Respondents’ demographic characteristics. My choice of demographic characteristics included in the multivariate analyses is governed by the questions asked of the respondents both in the ICVS and the WVS. Unfortunately, although the ICVS asks the respondents about their gender and age, it does not ask about their race or ethnicity. Statistical Issues. I use the hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) logistic regression models (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002) to study the relation between levels of support for the police and a number of covariates detailed in the previous sections. Police-related and society-wide variables are Level 2 variables (countrywide predictors), whereas the individual respondents’ characteristics and experience with the police are Level 1 variables in the models (individual-level predictors). Results General Support for the Police The respondents participating in the WVS were asked to express the degree of confidence in various social institutions, from the church and the press to government agencies such as the police or the armed forces. The percentage of the respondents who expressed either a “great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in these institutions is shown in Table 2. The level of confidence in the police varies greatly across these 28 countries, from just a few percent of the respondents in some countries to those countries in which almost all the respondents express a high degree of confidence in the police. Specifically, the respondents in two Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden) and Canada are the most supportive of their police: More than 80% of the respondents in these countries indicated that they either have “a great deal” or “a lot” of confidence in the police (Table 2). The respondents in Austria, Canada, Croatia, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States are also quite supportive of their police because two thirds of the respondents or more Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 422 International Criminal Justice Review Table 2 Confidence in Various Social Institutions by Country (World Values Survey) Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Estonia Finland France Georgia Hungary Italy Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Netherlands Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine United States Yugoslavia Church, Percentage Press, Percentage Parliament, Percentage (Rank) Legal System, Percentage (Rank) 49.8 74.0 49.5 57.5 63.5 63.6 60.3 55.6 49.6 75.6 56.2 60.2 64.2 69.8 31.2 31.4 67.4 72.4 66.3 50.2 37.7 49.0 49.4 38.9 67.0 75.9 38.3 17.7 41.4 44.3 46.7 46.4 27.0 54.8 31.2 38.3 55.9 40.0 39.3 49.5 70.7 17.7 34.1 46.3 27.8 40.4 36.7 43.0 43.0 28.7 22.1 43.6 27.4 28.0 41.2 (3) 29.9 (4) 42.8 (3) 45.3 (3) 37.9 (4) 48.5 (4) 43.8 (4) 32.4 (4) 48.2 (4) 38.4 (3) 39.9 (4) 30.6 (4) 25.0 (4) 25.7 (2) 15.7 (4) 51.6 (3) 34.5 (4) 20.8 (4) 22.0 (4) 35.5 (3) 24.7 (4) 36.6 (4) 44.6 (4) 43.9 (4) 37.8 (3) 30.3 (4) 39.0 (4) 58.4 (2) 48.8 (2) 44.6 (2) 38.6 (4) 54.4 (3) 58.5 (3) 61.7 (1) 66.7 (3) 57.5 (2) 43.3 (2) 59.5 (1) 31.8 (3) 38.3 (1) 22.9 (3) 24.4 (3) 63.8 (2) 52.6 (3) 47.6 (2) 39.3 (2) 37.6 (1) 35.9 (3) 46.7 (2) 62.5 (2) 66.0 (2) 43.9 (2) 36.3 (3) 52.3 (2) Armed Forces, Police, Percentage Percentage (Rank) (Rank) 28.9 (4) 72.8 (1) 33.1 (4) 81.4 (1) 56.9 (2) 82.3 (1) 47.9 (3) 81.1 (2) 56.4 (3) 50.0 (1) 51.7 (2) 45.6 (2) 30.9 (3) 41.1 (1) 38.7 (1) 31.6 (4) 79.5 (1) 82.3 (1) 69.1 (1) 37.1 (2) 44.7 (2) 43.4 (3) 54.5 (3) 49.9 (3) 68.0 (1) 86.4 (1) 61.6 (1) 67.8 (1) 37.8 (3) 51.0 (1) 51.2 (2) 84.1 (1) 66.3 (2) 50.9 (2) 85.0 (1) 66.5 (1) 35.2 (4) 50.6 (3) 64.9 (1) 31.1 (2) 20.1 (4) 26.7 (2) 73.2 (1) 53.2 (2) 45.1 (3) 30.2 (3) 27.3 (4) 47.4 (1) 62.1 (1) 81.1 (1) 68.6 (1) 37.5 (4) 71.2 (2) 50.0 (3) Note: Percentage of respondents saying that they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the institution in question. indicated that they have substantial confidence in the police (Table 2). On the other end of the spectrum are countries such as Lithuania, Macedonia, and Slovakia, in which only about one-quarter of the respondents or even fewer showed a substantial degree of support for the police (Table 2). The level of confidence in the police is low in Belarus, Georgia, Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine as well—only about one-third of the respondents expressed confidence in the police. The confidence in the police in Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Yugoslavia is somewhat higher because about one-half of the respondents said that they are confident in their police (Table 2). Generally speaking, the police in the established democracies typically elicit more confidence than the police in countries in transition do (χ2 = 3,326.01; df = 1; p < .001; Phi = .288). The police are among the most trusted institutions of the government. Calculation of the mean rank for each institution across all countries reveals that the mean for the police (2.07) was one of the two highest means, second only to the mean for the armed forces (2.00), Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 423 Table 3 HLM Logistic Regression Analysis of General Support: Confidence in the Policea (WVS) Individual-specific variables Genderb Agec Youngest Middle-aged Confidence in the legal systema Confidence in the parliamenta Confidence in the armed forcesa Country-specific variables Police size Percentage women Kaufman governance index ICVS crime index Police structured Multiple, coordinated Multiple, uncoordinated Constant χ2 Model 1, b (SE) Model 2, b (SE) −0.118 (0.026)*** −0.124 (0.027)*** −0.203 (0.043)*** −0.199 (0.031)*** 1.085 (0.061)*** 0.928 (0.059)*** 0.870 (0.069)*** −0.204 (0.045)*** −0.203 (0.034)*** 1.134 (0.058)*** 0.968 (0.054)*** 0.914 (0.071)*** 0.000 (0.000) 0.008 (0.021) 0.125 (0.028)*** 0.021 (0.022) −1.053 (0.188)*** 4287.62 −0.079 (0.423) 0.344 (0.252) −2.358 (0.607)*** 2792.45 Note: HLM = hierarchical linear modeling; WVS = World Values Survey. a. Variable coded as follows: 0 = no confidence; 1 = a lot of confidence. b. Variable coded as follows: 0 = female; 1 = male. c. Reference category: Oldest. d. Reference category: Single agency. *** p < .01. suggesting that overall, next to the armed forces, the police are the government institution that elicits the highest degree of confidence. These are averages across countries, and how the police compare with the other government institutions varies from one country to another (see Table 2). However, in 11 out of 27 countries, they are the government institution with the most confidence (Table 2), and in 7 other countries, they are the second most trusted institution of government. In the countries in which the level of confidence in the police is rather low (e.g., Belarus, Georgia, Lithuania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine), the level of confidence in other institutions of the government is not necessarily as low, and the police in these countries seem to be among the least trusted institutions of the government (see Table 2). To further examine the issue of general support for the police, I perform the HLM logistic regression analyses (Table 3). Considering individual-specific predictors first (Model 1 in Table 3), the results show that both measures of sociodemographic characteristics (gender, age) exhibit effects on the confidence in the police. In accordance with prior research that found strong effects of gender (Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Hadar & Snortum, 1975; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002), my results also indicate that women were more likely to say Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 424 International Criminal Justice Review that they have a lot of confidence in the police than men were (b = −0.118). Age was also a relevant predictor, as the bulk of prior research had suggested (see, e.g., Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jesilow et al., 1995; Reisig & Parks, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; van Dijk et al., 1990; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002): Compared to the oldest respondents, both the youngest (b = −0.203) and middle-aged respondents (b = −0.199) were less likely to say that they had a lot of confidence in the police. Model 1 also incorporates measures of what Cao and Zhao (2005) called “trust in the political system” and reported that trust in the political system was the key explanatory variable in confidence in the police in 17 Latin American countries. The results of my study suggest that the respondents’ general support for the police is also strongly related to their level of confidence in other government institutions (b = 0.870 for the armed forces, b = 1.085 for the legal system, and b = 0.928 for the parliament). Model 2 adds country-specific variables, including police-related ones (police size, percentage of women in the police, the nature of the police structure), as well as society-wide ones (Kaufman governance index). The only country-specific variable that is related to the confidence in the police is the Kaufman’s governance index. Given the direction of coding of the index (from −2.5 to 2.5, where 2.5 indicates excellent governance), the results imply that the countries with a higher quality of governance are more likely to yield more confidence in the police than the countries with a lower quality of governance (b = 0.125). As expected, “the manner in which public officials and institutions acquire and exercise the authority to shape public policy and provide public goods and services” (World Bank, 2007, p. 1), particularly the specific accountability and rule of law indicators, are critical countrywide factors shaping public opinion about the police. Specific Support for the Police The ICVS respondents were asked to evaluate the police ability to control crime in the area—a highly relevant measure of specific support for the police. Figure 1 depicts the percentage of the respondents, by country, who said that the police were doing a good job in controlling crime. The reported percentages range from 16.1% in Estonia to 90.8% in Canada, suggesting quite a large heterogeneity of opinions across countries on how good a job the police in their country were doing in controlling crime (Figure 1). The overwhelming majority of the respondents, more than three-quarters, in Canada, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, thought that the police were doing a good job. In addition, a strong majority of the respondents, between one-half and two-thirds, said that the police were doing a good job in mostly established democracies such as Austria, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands, as well as in two countries in transition—Croatia and Slovenia (Figure 1). On the other end of the spectrum are countries such as Estonia, Lithuania, and Russia, where a small fraction of the respondents, only about one-eighth, reported that the police were doing a good job. The rest of the countries fall somewhere between these two ends of the continuum, with only a minority of the respondents evaluating the police ability to control crime in the area positively (see Figure 1). Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 425 Figure 1 Percentage of Respondents, by Country, Saying That the Police Are Doing a Good Job in Controlling Crime in the Area Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Estonia Finland France Georgia Hungary Italy Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Netherland Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine UK USA Yugoslavia 65.7 36.3 51.6 37.3 90.8 55.9 16.1 71.2 67.4 35.6 37.6 46.4 17.7 46.9 61.9 27.1 34.7 17.6 41.3 53.6 44.2 84.9 74.7 28.7 74 75.9 38.8 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 To assess the determinants of the specific support for the police, I perform the HLM logistic regression analyses and present results in Table 4. An exploration of individualspecific predictors (Model 1 in Table 4) suggests that two demographic characteristics, gender and age, both exhibit effects on the specific support for the police. In accordance with prior research (Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Hadar & Snortum, 1975; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002) and the results regarding general support for the police (see Table 3), the results of this analysis show that women were more likely to have positive views about the police ability to control crime than men were (b = −0.356). Respondents’ age also had an impact on the respondents’ views of the police, as identified in prior research (see, e.g., Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jesilow et al., 1995; Reisig & Parks, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; van Dijk et al., 1990; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002) and the present analysis of the WVS data (see Table 3). The youngest respondents (b = −0.399) and middle-aged respondents (b = −0.372) were less likely to say that the police were doing a good job in controlling crime than the oldest respondents were. Model 1 also incorporates three individual-specific predictors measuring contact with the police or experience with the police: victimization and reporting experience, corrupt experience, and the frequency of seeing the police patrol. Personal experiences of becoming a crime victim—notions directly related to crime control—were strongly related to the Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 426 International Criminal Justice Review Table 4 HLM Logistic Regression Analysis of Specific Support: Police Ability to Control Crimea (ICVS) Individual-specific variables Genderb Agec Youngest Middle-aged Victimd Not a victim Victim who did not report Bribee Not asked for a bribe Asked for a bribe by other official Fear of crimef No fear Low fear Medium fear Trust in community Frequency of patrols Country-specific variables Police size Percentage women Kaufman governance index ICVS crime index Police structureg Multiple, coordinated Multiple, uncoordinated Constant χ2 Model 1, b (SE) Model 2, b (SE) −0.382 (0.066)*** −0.434 (0.078)*** −0.397 (0.108)*** −0.368 (0.116)*** −0.456 (0.122)*** −0.429 (0.134)*** 0.319 (0.154)** 0.098 (0.151) 0.368 (0.187)** 0.117 (0.183) 0.574 (0.082)*** −0.169 (0.144) 0.641 (0.109)*** −0.195 (0.193) 1.422 (0.137)*** 0.926 (0.142)*** 0.493 (0.117)*** 0.111 (0.106) 1.094 (0.106)*** 1.603 (0.126)*** 1.055 (0.151)*** 0.568 (0.140)*** 0.124 (0.128) 1.237 (0.119)*** −0.002 (0.000)*** 0.051 (0.016)*** 0.075 (0.026)*** −0.028 (0.017) −1.481 (0.347)*** 1055.54 0.803 (0.354)** 0.244 (0.304) −1.553 (0.514)*** 414.54 Note: HLM = hierarchical linear modeling; ICVS = International Crime Victimization Survey. a. Variable coded as follows: 0 = no confidence; 1 = a lot of confidence. b. Variable coded as follows: 0 = female; 1 = male. c. Reference category: Oldest. d. Reference category: Victim, reported to the police. e. Reference category: Asked for bribe by a police officer f. Reference category: High fear of crime g. Reference category: Single agency *** p < .01. respondents’ specific support for the police (b = 0.319). However, once a person becomes a crime victim, the decision whether to report the crime to the police is not directly related to the person’s opinion about the ability of the police to control crime (b = 0.098, n.s.). This demonstrates very clearly, and quite expectedly (see, e.g., Homant et al., 1984), that crime victimization is related to less positive views of the police ability to control crime in the area, probably because the police were not able to prevent the victimization in the first place. Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 427 The respondents could have had another type of experience with the police or other government officials: They could have been asked to pay a bribe. The results reported in Model 1 indicate that, compared to the respondents who were asked to pay a bribe by a police officer, the respondents who were not asked to pay a bribe at all were more likely to evaluate the police ability to control the crime positively (b = 0.574). Exactly what type of official asked for a bribe does not appear to matter: Those who were asked to pay a bribe by another, nonpolice government official did not have a significantly different opinion about the police from the respondents who were asked to pay a bribe by the police (b =–0.168, n.s.). Finally, the respondents who reported seeing the patrols more frequently were more likely to express a positive evaluation of the police ability to control crime in the area (b = 1.093) than the respondents who reported seeing the patrols less frequently were. The last group of variables in Model 1 includes neighborhood variables.3 Although the respondents’ fear of crime is significantly related to specific support for the police, the perception of the extent of informal social control is not (b = 0.110, n.s.; Model 1, Table 4). As expected (see, e.g., Skogan, 1990, p. 77), decrease in the extent of fear of crime substantially increases the extent of specific support (culminating with the highest coefficient, b = 1.427 in Model 1, associated with no fear of crime). Compared to the respondents with a high fear of crime, the respondents who had no fear of crime at all (b = 1.427), low fear (b = 0.931), or medium fear (b = 0.496) were more likely to evaluate the police performance positively. Model 2 adds country-specific variables, both the police-related ones (police size, percentage of women in the police, nature of the police structure, ICVS crime index) and the societywide ones (Kaufman governance index). In contrast to the case in the WVS analysis, where the only country-specific variable that had an effect on the general support for the police was Kaufman’s governance index (see Table 3), Kaufman governance index and several other country-specific variables turned out to be relevant for the specific support for the police. Regarding the Kaufman index, the results of the ICVS data are in accordance with the WVS results. Specifically, respondents from the countries with a higher quality of governance are more likely to yield more positive evaluations of police ability to control crime than the respondents from the countries with a lower quality of governance (b = 0.075). Several police-related variables were also related to the respondents’ views about the police ability to control crime. Police size was related negatively, indicating that the larger the number of sworn officers, the less likely it was that the respondents would say that the police were doing a good job in controlling crime (b = −0.002). The percentage of women in the police—the measure of heterogeneity on the police—is related positively to the respondents’ views on the police ability to control crime (b = 0.051). Finally, compared with the respondents from the countries with single agencies, the respondents from countries with multiple, coordinated police agencies expressed more positive opinions on the police ability to control crime (b = 0.802). Summary and Discussion My analyses of public support for the police across 28 European and North American countries indicate that public support (both general support and specific support) is a complex phenomenon. It is related to the respondents’ individual characteristics, their experience with Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 428 International Criminal Justice Review the police, police-related variables, and country-specific variables (primarily the quality of governance in the country). The nature of the questions asked in the two surveys differs and, accordingly, the models exploring general and specific support are not identical. However, there are some common themes that emerge across both models. Respondents’ individual characteristics, namely their gender and age, are related to both general and specific support for the police. Prior research, including studies that did and did not include countrywide variables (Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Garofalo, 1977; Hadar & Snortum 1975; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jesilow et al., 1995; Murty et al., 1990; Percy, 1980; Reisig & Correia, 1997; Reisig & Parks, 2000, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; van Dijk et al., 1990; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002), is uniform in suggesting that the respondents’ age is related to their views about the police. The results of this study strongly suggest that age is an important explanatory variable even when experience with the police and country-specific variables are included in the model. Probably because of the aging-out process and differential experience with the police, older respondents tend to hold more positive views about the police. On the other hand, the results of prior studies on gender are not as uniform, reporting no gender effect (e.g., Garofalo, 1977; Huang & Vaughn, 1996; Jesilow et al., 1995; Murty et al., 1990; Reisig & Parks, 2000, 2002; Sampson & Bartusch, 1998; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; Walker et al., 1973), weak effect (e.g., Decker, 1981; Percy, 1980), or strong effect (e.g., Cao et al., 1996; Correia et al., 1996; Hadar & Snortum, 1975; Weitzer & Tuch, 2002). My exploration of the views on both general and specific support show a gender effect, with women providing more positive evaluations of the police, regardless of whether they were asked about the police in general or about a specific police characteristic (i.e., the ability to control crime). Studies have shown that having any contact with the police (Dean, 1980; Yeo & Budd, 2000), particularly a negative one (Correia et al., 1996; Reisig & Parks, 2000), significantly erodes confidence in the police. Because men are more likely to have any contact with the police, especially a negative one (such as being arrested), the finding that their confidence in the police is lower matches the intuition very well. Indeed, the use of the ICVS data enables the inclusion of several measures of contact with the police such as experience of reporting victimization, being asked to pay a bribe, and seeing police patrols. As expected, compared to those who were victims of crime, not being a crime victim resulted in a more positive evaluation of the police ability to control crime. On the other hand, going through the reporting experience after the victimization, thus having what might be considered a positive contact with the police, did not yield more positive attitudes toward the police than if the victim had decided not to report the crime to the police. The nature of the data did not allow more focus on the reporting experience and the reasons for the respondents’ dissatisfaction with the reporting experience. However, limited prior research conducted in the United States (e.g., Poister & McDavid, 1978) suggests that satisfaction with the response time and satisfaction with the initial investigation, as well as the initiation and the quality of the subsequent investigation and the likelihood of an arrest, seem to be related to the victims’ views of the police. Future research could explore the reasons for victims’ dissatisfaction with the reporting experience in a comparative arena and the degree to which the reasons for dissatisfaction converge or diverge across countries. Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 429 Another type of direct experience with the police includes police officers asking the citizens for a bribe. Prior research has indicated that the respondents who are more likely to perceive that the police are corrupt or engaging in other forms of misconduct (e.g., racial profiling) are also less likely to trust the police (Dean, 1980; Benson, 1981; Smith & Hawkins, 1973; Soon Son et al., 1996). I find that being asked to pay a bribe erodes confidence in the police to about equal extents whether the bribe was asked for by a police officer or by another government official, whereas not being asked to pay a bribe by any government official resulted in a more positive opinion about the police. This finding provides support for the argument that confidence in the police and confidence in other parts of the government are related. In fact, the results of my analysis of WVS data show that in accordance with a handful of prior studies (Albrecht & Green, 1977; Cao et al., 1998; Cao & Zhao, 2005; Stack & Cao, 1998), respondents’ extent of support for other government institutions is closely related to the respondents’ general support for the police: Respondents who had more confidence in the legal system, armed forces, and the parliament expressed more confidence in the police as well. It seems that, indeed, it is impossible to evaluate one part of the government while completely disregarding the views about other segments of the same government. Thus, both the ICVS analyses on corrupt experience and the WVS analyses on confidence in other parts of the government strongly support the Cao and Zhao (2005) argument that attitudes on specific segments of the government compose a set of underlying values oriented toward the government, which they called trust in the political system. Quality of governance is the only countrywide variable that has a strong effect on the respondents’ general support for the police and is one of the key countrywide variables related to their specific support for the police as well. Kaufman et al. (2007) argued that the principles of governance are not directly measurable, and proceed to design a way of measuring governance indirectly. Their governance index consists of a series of rules-based and outcome-based indicators of governance. In other words, the indicators measure not only the existence and quality of legal rules but also how these laws are actually enforced. My results show that the public has more confidence in the police in general (general support) and in the police ability to control crime (specific support) in those countries in which there is a greater degree to which citizens participate in the selection of government and enjoy civil liberties, in which there is a higher quality of independent public services, in which the government officials are more likely to obey the rules, and in which corruption is less likely to affect both low- and high-ranking officials. These findings clearly speak to the need to include country-level variables in the future models of public support for the police or, for that matter, any government institution. Focusing on the issues of specific support for the police, results also indicate that other key factors that affect public opinion about the police ability to control crime in the area are closely associated with the specific task (i.e., crime control) and the respondents’ personal experience. In particular, the frequency with which respondents observed police patrols was crucial: The more frequently they saw the patrols, the more likely they were to say that the police were able to control crime in the area. Similarly, when respondents felt safer after dark, reported that they were less likely to avoid certain areas by night, and estimated that the chances of someone breaking into their apartment were slim, they were also more likely to express a lot of confidence in the police ability to control crime in the area. Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 430 International Criminal Justice Review Kelling and Wilson (1982) argued that the level of disorder in the community, rather than the rates of serious crimes, is what causes high fear of crime, and a handful of prior research (see, e.g., Skogan, 1990) indeed showed that the citizens in the communities characterized by high level of disorder are likely to experience high fear of crime as well. Whereas I had neither a measure of crime nor disorder in the respondents’ specific neighborhoods, I did have a measure of the respondents’ fear of crime (which was highly related to specific support for the police) and countrywide crime rates (which turned out to be unrelated to their views about the police ability to control crime). Several prior studies linked fear of crime and satisfaction with the police (Cao et al., 1996; Reisig & Giacomazzi, 1998; Reisig & Parks, 2002) and suggested that the level of safety, fear of crime, and extent of disorder in the community may have an additional impact on the overall satisfaction with the police. Similarly, another study reported that the feeling of safety and visibility of the police are the two key variables affecting the views about the quality of police service in Slovenia (Pavlovic, 1998, p. 553). The results of my study also show that both visibility of the police patrols and lower fear of crime are positively related to the public evaluations of the police ability to control crime. Future research could seek to incorporate measures of neighborhood-level variables (fear of crime, crime rates, trust in the community, visibility of police patrol) and analyze the data using three levels (individual, neighborhood, country). Although police size and percentage of women both turned out not turn out to be relevant predictors of the general support for the police, they both are related to the respondents’ evaluations of the police ability to control crime in the area. At this point, the existing literature does not provide a clear answer about the relation between police size/percentage of women in the police and public confidence in the police. Aromaa, Leppa, Nevala, and Ollus (2003) examined correlates of police size (policing rates) and concluded that policing rates tended to be higher in the countries in transition than they were in established democracies. They argued as follows: One explanation for differences in policing levels will be country differences in the functions that police officers are expected to perform. But other factors may also play a part. The level of development is one fairly commonly used correlate. With the current selection of countries, there was a weak negative relationship between policing rates and the United Nations 1998 HDI (r = −0.27, p < .10; n = 42). In other words, countries that scored lower on the HDI tended to have rather more police officers per capita. This relationship goes in the opposite direction to that found by Newman and Howard (1999b) on a broader range of countries. The absence of clear identification of the nature and the strength of the relation between the police size and heterogeneity of the police, and public attitudes toward the police presents an opportunity for future research. In summary, this study explores both general and specific support for the police in a comparative arena and suggests that future research should go beyond individual and neighborhood characteristics and should incorporate police-related and society-wide characteristics as well. The respondents’ views of the police, both general confidence and specific ability to control crime, are affected by who the respondents are (gender, age) and by the quality of governance in the country in which they live. Their general views of the police also are related very strongly to what they think about other parts of the government—namely, the Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016 Kutnjak Ivkovic′ / Public Support for the Police 431 armed forces, parliament, and the legal system. Their evaluations of the police ability to control crime are strongly colored by their individual experiences and contacts with the police (crime victimization, fear of crime, being asked to pay a bribe, frequency of seeing police patrols). In addition, police-related characteristics (police size, percentage of women as a measure of heterogeneity of the police, police structure) are related to their opinions as well. Notes 1. 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Ljubljana, Slovenia: College of Police and Security Studies. Sanja Kutnjak Ivkovic′, PhD, SJD, is an associate professor in the School of Criminal Justice at Michigan State University. Trained both in criminology (PhD in criminology, University of Delaware) and criminal law (SJD, Harvard Law School), her research interests are policing, courts, and comparative/international criminology and criminal justice. Her coedited book Contours of Police Integrity (with Carl B. Klockars and Maria R. Haberfeld, 2004, Sage) received honorable mention by the 2005 American Society of Criminology International Division Book Award Committee. To date, her other books on the subject of police corruption and police integrity are Fallen Blue Knights: Controlling Police Corruption (2005, Oxford University Press) and Enhancing Police Integrity (with Carl B. Klockars and Maria R. Haberfeld, 2006, Springer). Her research has appeared in journals such as Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Law and Society Review, Law and Social Inquiry, Law and Policy, Stanford Journal of International Law, Cornell International Law Journal, International Criminal Justice Review, International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, Policing and Society, and Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management. Downloaded from icj.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 19, 2016
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