Supply and Demand Issues Relating to the ACT Taxi Industry by

Supply and Demand Issues Relating to the ACT Taxi Industry
by
Professor Des Nicholls
Research School of Management
College of Business and Economics
Australian National University ACT 0200
for the
Canberra Taxi Industry Association
4 July 2012
Table of Contents
Page
Executive Summary
3
1. Introduction
4
2. The Release of Lease Plates
4
3. Measuring Supply and Demand
5
4. Comments on the KPIs
4.1. KPIs Based on Forecasts
4.2. Population Growth
4.3. Airline Passenger Movements
4.4. Changes in Taxi meter Activations
4.5. Changes in the Percentage of Pick ups under 10 Minutes
6
6
7
8
8
9
5. Application of the Taxi Licence Release Model
10
6. Impact of the Taxi Cost Composite (TCCI) Model for Setting Taxi Fares 11
7. Comments
13
8. Conclusion
14
8. About the Author
15
2
Executive Summary
As a result of significant turnover in taxi lease plates in the last twelve months, this report
analyses data relating to the supply of, and demand for, taxi plates in the ACT. In
undertaking the analysis, data has been supplied by the largest ACT taxi network, the Aerial
Capital Group. No data was included from the Cabxpress network.
When considering relevant Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), it became evident that those
relating to the recently adopted (by the ACT Government) Taxi Licence Release Model were
relevant to the analysis. This has led to a refinement of a number of these KPIs to make them
more stable to the impact of ‘one-off’ events and to better reflect trends in demand and
supply through time.
The application of the Taxi Licence Release Model to data relating to the years 2010 and
2011 indicates a small increase in fleet size, namely 6 plates in 2010 and 3 plates in 2011.
The release of 25 new plates and 16 surrendered plates in April 2011 far exceeds these.
The surrender of lease plates, particularly in the latter half of 2011, together with the findings
of this report, could be interpreted as an indication that the supply of taxi plates currently
exceeds demand for taxi services.
An analysis of the impact of plate releases, and the application of the taxi fare model
indicates that during the last 5 years drivers have earned between $13 and $15.30 per hour,
with the number of trips per shift being between 15 and 17.
Operator revenue has not kept up with the costs associated with operating a taxi; this implies
that for operators to get a return on their investment they should become operator/drivers.
The impact of this analysis assists in explaining why the value of standard perpetual plates
has fallen, together with the churn in leased taxi plates. The churn in leased plates may be
reduced if the annual lease fee of $20,000 had to be paid in advance each year, rather than on
a quarterly basis ($5,000) as at present.
3
1. Introduction
The release of new taxi plates in the ACT was one of the central terms of reference in the
ACT Government review of the ACT Taxi industry in 2010. This review report was heavily
dependent on a PwC consulting report which addressed a broad range of issues leading to a
significant number of recommendations. Included in the report was a model for the
determination of the number of new taxi lease plates to be released on a periodic (annual)
basis. Separate models were determined for standard taxis and WATs.
In April 2006 a ballot was held for 10 new standard taxi licences releases which were
transferable leased licences. All taxi licence releases since that date have been non
transferable leased licences.
Currently standard taxi plates are leased from the Government for $20,000 pa, with the
annual lease fee being able to be paid quarterly ($5,000 per quarter), with no penalty/charge
if a plate lessee hands back a plate to the Government.
The aim of this report is to present an analysis of the current ‘state’ of the market with respect
to the supply of, and demand for taxi licence plates. The report is based solely on data
supplied by the Aerial Capital Group; it does not include data from the other ACT based taxi
network, namely Cabxpress, or Queanbeyan based cabs. The Aerial Capital Group is a much
larger network than Cabxpress, in December 2011 there were a total of 305 taxis operating in
this network.
2. The Release of Lease Plates
Prior to April 2006 there was a total of 243 taxi plates in the ACT, of which 217 were
perpetual plates and 26 were leased WAT plates.
*
Ballot Date
19 April 2006
15 August 2006
22 May 2007
27 November 2007
27 May 2008
27 May 2008
6 October 2008
13 April 2011
13 April 2011
Table 1
Taxi Licence Ballot Data
Number
10
10
20
12
20
5
25
25
16
Taxi Type
Standard
Standard
Standard
WAT Restricted
Standard
Conditional
Standard
Standard
Surrendered (Standard)
Leased Licence Type
Transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
Non transferable
*
Data supplied by Aerial Capital Group
Table 1 indicates that 131 standard taxi lease plates (10 of which are transferable, the
remainder being non transferable) have been released over a 5 year period, significantly
increasing the ACT taxi fleet. Leased taxi plates now account for more than one third of the
total ACT taxi fleet.
4
As a result of the introduction of a leased plate system, and a lack of any disincentives for
lessees not to return their plates, there has been significant ‘churn’ in the release and return of
taxi plates. Indeed Table 2 indicates the number of plates surrendered, on a monthly basis,
from February 2011 – January 2012 (12 months).
Table 2
Taxi Licence Plates Surrendered
Date
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Total
Number
Surrendered
4
2
3
2
2
1
3
6
1
1
25
Plate Numbers
421, 427, 905, 902
917, 423
403 ,409, 401
478, 462
458, 405
466
452, 425, 490
412, 406, 488, 417, 402, 107
131
419
Tables 1 and 2 indicate that in April 2011 a total of 41 plates (25 new and 16 surrendered)
were offered by ballot. During the period February 2011-January 2012 a total of 25 plates
were surrendered. That is, 19.1% of the total leased plates have been surrendered during this
12 month period.
This turnover rate is significant. For the 24 of the 25 plates surrendered1, data relating to the
length of time the lease was held was able to be analysed, as Table 3 indicates.
Table 3
Length of Time Lease Plates Held for those
Surrendered between February 2011 – January 2012
Years
0-1
1-2
2-3
>3
Number Surrendered
5
5
10
4
It is notable that only 4 of these lease plates have been held for more than 3 years. The
surrender rate, or churn, in lease plates may be interpreted as an indication that, based on
leased plates operating through the Aerial Capital Group, the leased taxi plate market could
be regarded as being ‘saturated’.
3. Measuring Supply and Demand
To further investigate the proposal that the the current supply of taxis in the ACT may be
sufficient to satisfy demand, an analysis of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) identified
1
One lease did not have a commencement date, consequently the length of the lease for that lease plate could
not be determined.
5
in the PwC taxi plate release model (which has been adopted by the Government) has been
undertaken.
In considering changes in supply and demand for taxi services, three categories of KPIs can
be considered, namely Demand for Taxi Services, Industry Viability and Industry
Performance. These three classes of KPIs have been reflected in the licence allocation model
for taxis. In the case of standard taxis the relevant KPIs and their respective weightings are:
Demand for Taxi Services
Change in Territory Final Demand
ACT Population Growth
Change in Canberra Airport Passenger Numbers
Weight
40%
5%
25%
Industry Viability
Change in Standard Taxi Meter Activations
15%
Industry Performance
Change in Percentage of Pickups under 10 Minutes
15%
It is notable that in this model KPIs relating to demand for taxi services are given a total
weighting of 70%, while industry viability and industry performance are given a combined
weighting of 30%.
As in the case of the Taxi Fare Model, it is proposed that the application of the Taxi Licence
Release Model should be based on the most recent years available data, so that, for example,
a plate release model to be applied in 2012 would be applied to calendar year data up to, and
including December 2011.
4. Comments on the KPIs.
There are many KPIs which could be used to measure supply and demand for taxi services.
Those chosen in the model in themselves could be improved to identify stable trend patterns
in specific KPIs and hence in the demand for, and supply of, taxis in the ACT.
4.1. KPIs based on Forecasts
The three KPIs identified to measure changes in demand are each based on forecasts. In the
case of Territory Final Demand and Airport Passenger numbers this is seen as problematical.
In the case of Territory (State) Final Demand (SFD), forecasts can vary significantly from the
actual values (available the following year), as Table 4 reflects.
Table 4
Territory (State) Final Demand
Comparison of Forecast and Actual Data
*
Financial Year Forecast (%) Actual (%)
1.75
2.5
2007/08
1
0.7
2008/09
3.75
1.4
2009/10
*
ACT Government Budget Paper No 3, 2009-10 and 2010-11.
6
The difference between the forecast and actual values can have a significant impact on model
outcomes. Indeed for a fleet size of 350 taxis, say, in 2009/10 with a weight of 40%, using
the SFD forecast of 3.75% would have resulted in a fleet increase of 5.25 (ie 5) taxis from
that KPI. Had the actual SFD been used (1.4%), the contribution to the fleet increase from
that component would have been 1.96 (ie 2) taxis.
As Table 4 also indicates, both actual and forecast SFD vary significantly from year to year.
Rather than use individual years as measures of SFD, it is more reasonable to consider trends
in SFD through time, as has been done in the case of KPIs relating to taxi meter activations
and pickups under 10 minutes. For this reason it is proposed to use three year compound
annual growth rates (CAGR) applied to annual SFD data (December to December).
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Catalogue No. 5206.0 supplies SFD data on a
monthly basis for all jurisdictions, including the ACT (the appropriate seasonally adjusted
data appears as Series A2303068K).
Table 5
ACT State Final Demand Data
%
Change
$m
3 yr
CAGR
Dec-07
10654
Dec-08
10933
2.62
Dec-09
10954
0.19
Dec-10
11477
4.77
2.51
Dec-11
11744
2.33
2.41
From this table it is seen that the 3 year compound annual growth rate for SFD is 2.51% in
2010 and 2.41% in 2011. As identified, this is a much more stable approach for measuring
trends in SFD.
4.2 Population Growth
The ACT Government supplies ACT population projections for suburbs and districts.2
While population projections are fairly stable from year to year, for consistency it is proposed
that for the purpose of the application of the model, 3 year CAGR also be used. Table 6
presents the relevant data for these projections.
Table 6
ACT Population Projections
Year
2
Population
Projection
%
Change
3 yr
CAGR
2007
341054
2008
346294
1.5
2009
352189
1.7
2010
357958
1.6
1.63
2011
363764
1.6
1.65
See www.cmd.act.gov.au/policystrategic/actstats/projections/act
7
These data indicate that the three year CAGR for the ACT population was 1.63% to the end
of 2010, and 1.65% to the end of 2011.
4.3. Airline Passenger Movements
As indicated earlier, rather than use forecast passenger movements at Canberra airport for the
coming year to determine the annual change in passenger numbers, actual data should be
used based on the previous, and earlier years. These data are available on a monthly basis,
from the Australian Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional
Economics.3
Since airline passenger data can change significantly from year to year, as with other KPIs, a
three year CAGR should be used. The data relating to passenger numbers at Canberra airport
which appear in Table 7 support this argument.
Table 7
Canberra Airport Calendar Year
Passenger Movements
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Number (000’s)
2735.1
2984.1
3149.2
3304.5
3206.5
% Change
3 yr CAGR (%)
9.1
5.5
4.9
-3.0
6.51
2.42
The data in this table indicate that the percentage change in the actual (as distinct from
forecast) data from year to year is volatile, ranging from 9.1% to -3.0% in a 4 year period.
To avoid such significant volatility in the taxi licence allocation model, and to reflect a trend
over time in airline passenger movements, it is proposed to use a 3 year CAGR to better
reflect the trend in passenger movements. Table 7 indicates the 3 year CAGR was 6.51% in
2010 and 2.42% in 2011.
Using a 3 year CAGR will also reduce the impact, in the licence allocation model, of a major
event in a particular year (such as a major exhibition at the National Gallery for a extended
period, or the impact of the planned Canberra centenary celebrations in 2013).
4.4. Changes in Standard Taxi Meter Activations
The licence allocation model proposes the CAGR in standard taxi meter activations as an
appropriate measure of industry viability. This KPI could also be regarded as a measure of
demand for taxi services, of course. This PKI does not, however reflect changes (increases)
in the number of taxis operating from year to year. The appropriate KPI here is the change in
the number of taxi meter activations per taxi per year, including WATs. WATs should be
included as the vast majority of their work is not disabled related. Also by considering the
total number of activations per taxi per year, this will reflect the number of taxis operating, in
a particular year, to service the demand.
3
See www.bitre.gov.au/publications/domestic_airline_activity-monthly_publications.aspx
8
Table 8 summarises the data required to measure changes, and the 3 year CAGR, for total
meter activations. Table 9 takes account of the increasing taxi fleet and presents data relating
to the total number of meter activations per taxi per year.
Table 8
Changes in Taxi Meter Activations
Year
Total
Activations
%
Change
3 yr
CAGR
2007
2069477
2008
2148682
3.83
2009
2226217
3.61
2010
2314231
3.95
3.80
2011
2457302
6.18
4.58
Table 9
Changes in Taxi Meter Activations per Taxi
*
Number of Activations
%
3yr
Year
Taxis
per Taxi
change
CAGR
244
8476
2007
233
9125
7.66
2008
281
7931
-13.28
2009
289
8022
1.38
-1.82
2010
297
8271
3.10
-3.22
2011
*
The stated number is the average of the number operating each
month in each year.
A comparison of the data in Tables 8 and 9 clearly illustrates why it is important to measure
this KPI as the number of meter activations per taxi per year, particularly when an extra 53
taxis have actively entered the Aerial Capital fleet during the period 2007-2011.
4.5. Changes in the Percentage of Pickups under 10 Minutes.
Changes in the percentage of pickups under 10 minutes for the period 2007-2011, and the
related statistics, are summarised in Table 10.
Table 10
Percentage of Pickups under 10 Minutes
Year
% Pickups
under 10 mins
%
Change
2007
80.32
2008
82.25
2.40
2009
86.2
4.80
3 yr
CAGR
2010
86.6
0.46
2.54
2011
86.41
-0.22
1.66
As this table indicates the percentage of pickups under 10 minutes has increased from 80.3%
in 2007 to 86.4% in 2011. The 3 year CAGR is 2.54% in 2010 and 1.66% in 2011.
9
5. Application of the Taxi Licence Allocation Model
Table 11 displays the outcome of the application of the taxi licence allocation model based on
data for 2010 and 2011.
Table 11
Application of the Taxi Licence Release Model
Forecast
Change/CAGR
Model
Contribution
Forecast/
Change/CAGR
2010
2010
2011
2011
0.25
4.90
1.23
-3.00
-0.75
0.05
1.60
0.08
1.60
0.08
0.4
3.75*
1.50
4.00*
1.60
0.15
3.80
0.57
4.58
0.69
0.15
2.54**
-0.38
1.66**
-0.25
Weight
Change in Airport Passenger
Numbers
Change in Population
Projections
*Forecast of State Final
Demand
Change in Taxi Meter
Activations
**Percentage of Pickups
under 10 minutes
Model
Contribution
Fleet Increase (%)
2.99
1.37
Fleet Size-December
293
305
9
4
Fleet Increase (Number)
*Forecasts from ACT Government Budget Paper No 3, 2009-10 and 2010-11.
**As the CAGR indicates an improvement in the percentage of pickups, the contribution to the model from this
KPI will be negative.
If the allocation model was applied as described, as Table 11 shows, in 2010 the model would
indicate the release of a further 9 taxi licences in 2011 (based on data up to, and including
2010) and 4 taxi licences in 2012 (based on data up to, and including, 2011).
Table 12 presents the outcomes of the application of the allocation model, but reflecting the
changes/improvements proposed in the previous section of this report.
10
Table 12
Application of the Revised Taxi Licence Allocation Model
Change in Airport Passenger
Numbers
Change in Population
Projections
Forecast of State Final
Demand
Change in Taxi Meter
Activations per Taxi
Percentage of Pickups under
10 minutes
Weight
Forecast
Change/CAGR
Model
Contribution
Forecast/
Change/CAGR
Model
Contribution
0.25
2010
6.51
2010
1.63
2011
2.42
2011
0.61
0.05
1.63
0.08
1.65
0.08
0.4
2.51
1.00
2.41
0.96
0.15
-1.82
-0.27
-3.22
-0.48
0.15
2.54
-0.38
1.66
-0.25
Fleet Increase (%)
2.06
0.92
Fleet Size-December
293
305
6
3
Fleet Increase (Number)
The application of the revised model indicates an increase of 6 taxi licences in 2011 (based
on relevant data up to, and including 2010) and 3 licences in 2012 (based on data up to, and
including 2011).
6. Impact of the Taxi Cost Composite (TCCI) Model for Setting Taxi Fares
In 2004 the Independent Competition and Regulatory Commission (ICRC) developed a Taxi
Cost Composite (TCCI) for the setting of taxi fares on an annual basis. Each cost item was
determined and given an appropriate weight, as indicated in the first two columns of Table
13.
In the third column of Table 3 each cost item has been adjusted to reflect its current value.
This has been done as follows:
- The Interest Cost item, which reflects the cost of owning or leasing plates, has been
set at the current plate lease value ($20,000).
- Network fees have been adjusted using the ICRC approach (70% Consumer Price
Index and 30% Labour Price Index)
- LPG has been adjusted based on movements on the average monthly LPG prices in
2004 (42.8 c/l) and 2011(66.4 c/l)
- Registration and third party insurance are actual cost values.
- All other Cost items have been adjusted using the appropriate indices identified in the
ICRC 2004 report.
11
Table 13
Taxi Fare Model
TCCI Cost Item
ICRC 2004
Weights
(%)
Estimated
Estimated
Cost
CostICRC 2004 ($) 2011 ($)
2011
Weights
(%)
PwC 2010
Report
Weights
(%)
Labour
50%
50
50
Interest
7.20%
13600
20000
7.9
9.2
Network Fees
6.60%
12454
15742
6.2
6.8
Insurances
8.70%
16580
24076
9.5
7.7
LPG
6.80%
12810
19873
7.9
9.4
Vehicle Costs
3.70%
6941
6368
2.5
3.7
Repairs and Servicing
8.40%
15948
19279
7.6
7.4
Tyres
1.40%
2742
3436
1.4
Registration and third
party personal injury
3.50%
6716
9121
3.6
3.6
Administration and Other
3.70%
6993
8623
3.4
2.2
100%
94784
126518
100
100
$189,568
$253,036
Driver Return
$94,784
$126,518
Operator Return
$94,784
$126,518
Total
Total Cost
The fifth column in Table 13 indicates the cost item weights based on the 2011 Estimated
Costs, while the final column lists the weights proposed in the 2010 PwC report.
This Table indicates that had cost items changed in accordance with the appropriate indices,
etc, the driver and operator returns would have increased from $94,784 pa to $126,518 pa. In
the case of drivers, this figure represents the combined income of 2 drivers which are
required to keep the taxi operating for an average 11 shifts per week for 48 weeks a year.
As Table 14 indicates, this increase in revenue over the period 2004-2011 has not eventuated.
As a result of the data which can be extracted using the Aerial Capital Group MT data
software, it has been possible to analyse these data to give an accurate overview of what has
happened with respect to driver and operator returns in recent years.
12
Table 14
Driver/Operator Performance Data 2004 - 2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8476
9215
7913
8022
8271
$20.21
$21.02
$21.54
$21.54
$22.59
$171,300
$193,699
$170,446
$172,794
$186,842
Driver Return (50%)
$85,650
$96,850
$85,223
$86,397
$93,421
Operator Return (50%)
$85,650
$96,850
$85,223
$86,397
$93,421
11
11
11
11
11
528
528
528
528
528
$162.22
$183.43
$161.41
$163.63
$176.93
$13.52
$15.29
$13.45
$13.64
$14.74
16
17
15
15
16
Average No. Trips/Taxi
Cost of Aver. Trip
Total Revenue
No Shifts/week
No shifts -48 weeks
Driver Revenue/Shift
$/hour
No Trips/Shift
In Table 14 the first row indicates the average number of trips per taxi per year, based on
meter activations recorded on the MT data base. The second row gives the cost of an average
trip (8.35 km) for each of the years 2004 – 2011 which have been approved by the
Government regulator. From this it is straightforward to determine the operator and driver
returns. Based on the industry norm of a taxi operating for 11 shifts per week for 48 weeks a
year, the last two rows of Table 14 indicate the average $/hour earned by the driver, together
with the average number of paid trips per shift.
The MT data base also indicates that the average distance travelled per taxi in 2011 was
148,428 km and the average paid km was 50.1% (74,362 km). The average trip length in
2011 was 8.99 km, which is a slight increase on the 2004 average of 8.35 km. This would be
accounted for but the increase in the urban spread of Canberra during that period, of course.
What is notable in the data presented in Tables 13 and 14 is the hourly earning rate of drivers,
and the consistency of the number of trips per shift.
In the case of operators, the 2011 average operator return of $93,421 is less than the
estimated cost of operating a taxi in 2004 ($94,784), and significantly less than the $126,518
return which should have been attained had the demand for taxi services increased in
accordance with indexed cost increases. What this indicates is that for the operators to get
any real return from their taxi plates they must be driver/operators. The data would indicate
that the taxi market for conventional plates would not result in an acceptable return for
investors.
7. Comments
Even though the application of the models to determine demand for taxis indicate a slight
increase in the taxi fleet in 2010 and 2011, a combination of factors taken individually, and
referred to in earlier sections of this report, should be considered in discussions with the taxi
industry prior to any future decisions being made (which relate to increasing the taxi fleet
size). These include:
13












Significant churn in leased plates. In April 2011, 25 new and 16 surrendered plates
were released by ballot. As Table 2 indicates, 24 plates were surrendered in 2011, 10
of which were in the last 3 months of that year.
Canberra airport movements declined by 3% in 2011.
The change in State Final Demand, a measure of economic activity, declined from
4.77% in calendar year 2010 to 2.33% in 2011.
The application of the revised model to 2010 and 2011 data indicated a fleet increase
of 6 plates and 3 plates, respectively. The release of 41 plates (25 new and 16
surrendered) in 2011 would have contributed to an apparent oversupply of plates,
based on the number of plates surrendered in 2011.
Data relevant to the Aerial Capital network fleet show that the percentage of pickups
under 10 minutes was relatively stable, (86.6% in 2010 and 86.4% in 2011), while
meter activations per taxi increased from 8,022 in 2010 to 8,271 in 2011. Of course
caution is necessary when comparing individual yearly data, one or two major events,
such as a National Gallery exhibition extending over a period of some months may
significantly impact on demand for that period, and for that year.
The analysis summarised in Table 14 indicates that the application of the taxi fare
model has resulted in consistent annual increases in fares, with drivers earning, on
average, between $13 and $15.30 per hour during the period 2007-2011.
The average number of trips per shift has remained constant (15-17) during the 5 year
period.
During the 5 year period 2007-2011, operator costs have varied from from $85,223 in
2009 to $96,850 in 2008.
In 2011 average operator costs were $93,421. This can be compared to operator costs
determined in the 2004 ICRC review where in that year, as Table 13 indicates, the
costs were $94,784 and which, when indexed to 2001 were $126,518.
It is clear that operator returns are not increasing in line with the cost of maintaining
and running a taxi. This would indicate that to run a viable operation, operators will
need to reduce taxi operating costs and/or consider driving their taxis. This will of
course, be impossible for operators with multiple licences.
As the data in Tables 13 and 14 would indicate, the most significant impact of the
release of taxi licences has been on operators, where costs have exceeded returns.
This could contribute to a reduction in the sale price of conventional plates.
The churn in leased plates may be reduced if lessees were required to pay the full
annual lease fee ($20,000) in advance, rather than a quarterly fee of $5,000 as at
present.
8. Conclusion
This report evolved from a desire to determine why taxi licence lease plates were
experiencing such a significant turnover. When information from individuals who
surrendered their licences was not freely available, an analysis of the key performance
indicators to be applied to determine the supply of, and the demand for, taxis was undertaken.
Further relevant information was also obtained from an analysis of changes in taxi fares and
average trip data for the period 2004 – 2011. In the process of gathering and analysing the
relevant data it became clear that the model could be refined to present more representative
measures of KPIs measuring demand, supply and performance in the ACT taxi industry.
14
From the above analyses, and the comments relating to these, the evidence indicates that the
current size of the taxi fleet is sufficient to satisfy the demands for their services. Given the
significant churn in leased plates, consideration should be given to introducing measures to
deter lessees from surrendering their taxi lease plates.
An analysis of relevant taxi related data for the period 2004 -2011 clearly indicates that the
market has stabilised with hourly rates of pay for drivers and the number of trips per shift.
Given the identified costs associated with operating a taxi, it has become a very marginal
enterprise from the point of view of operators, unless the operators are willing to also drive
their taxis. Of course this would not be an option in the case of an operator with multiple taxi
licences.
9. About the Author
Professor Des Nicholls BSc(Hons), MSc, PhD, AM has spent more than a decade researching
in, and consulting to, the taxi industry in Australia. He has undertaken taxi industry related
projects for the Australian Taxi Industry Association, Queensland Treasury, Canberra Taxi
Industry Association, advised the ACT Independent Competition and Regulatory
Commission on taxi related matters and assisted the Productivity Commission (with a
submission and presentation on issues relating to the potential impact of deregulation on the
taxi industry). During this period he has produced a significant number of
reports/submissions relating to the taxi and hire car industries. He has recently developed a
taxi plate release model for the Taxi Council South Australia and given advice to the
Victorian Taxi Association relating to the ongoing review of the Victorian Taxi Industry
Inquiry.
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