My Uncertainty is
Bigger Than Yours:
Public Opinion and the EU Referendum
Joe Twyman
Head of Political and Social Research, YouGov
@JoeTwyman
Where we Currently Stand
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of
the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain a member of the European Union
43%
Leave the European Union
42%
Would not vote
Don’t know
Source: YouGov · Fieldwork: 5th – 6th June 2016 · Sample: 2,001 British adults
4%
111%
Where we Currently Stand
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of
the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain a member of the European Union
51%
Leave the European Union
49%
Source: YouGov · Fieldwork: 5th – 6th June 2016 · Sample: 2,001 British adults
Support Groups
Remain % Leave
'REMAIN' LEAD 10 POINTS OR
MORE
Guardian readers
Independent readers
Green voters
Lib Dem voters
Fairly or very left-wing
SNP voters
Age 18-29
Labour voters
University graduates
Times readers
Scotland
Slightly left of centre
Age 30-39
AB social class
London
76
71
68
64
64
63
63
62
62
62
60
59
58
56
55
24
29
32
36
35
38
37
38
38
38
40
41
42
44
45
%
Remain
lead
52
42
36
28
29
25
26
24
24
24
20
18
16
12
10
Support Groups
Remain % Leave
GAP LESS THAN 10 POINTS
C1 social class
North East England
East Midlands
Wales
Highest qualification A level or equiv.
Age 40-49
Mirror/Record readers
North West England
Men
Women
All
54
53
53
53
53
52
52
51
51
51
51
46
47
47
47
47
48
48
49
49
49
49
%
Remain
lead
8
6
6
6
6
4
4
2
2
2
2
Support Groups
Remain % Leave
GAP LESS THAN 10 POINTS
All
South East England
South West England
Slightly right of centre
Age 50-59
Yorkshire & Humberside
West Midlands
DE social class
East Anglia
C2 social class
51
49
49
49
48
48
48
47
47
46
49
51
51
51
52
52
52
53
53
54
%
Remain
lead
2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
Support Groups
Remain % Leave
LEAVE' LEAD 10 POINTS OR MORE
Conservative voters
Telegraph readers
Age 60+
Highest qualification GCSE or lower
Centre
Sun readers
Mail readers
Fairly or very right-wing
Express readers
Ukip voters
45
45
44
43
43
42
41
36
34
28
55
55
56
57
57
58
59
64
66
72
%
Remain
lead
-10
-10
-12
-14
-14
-16
-18
-28
-32
-44
Where we Currently Stand
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of
the European Union or leave the European Union?
Eng
Sco
Wales
NI
Remain
39%
49%
41%
60%
Leave
41%
32%
39%
31%
Would not vote
6%
4%
6%
1%
Don’t know
14%
15%
15%
7%
Source: YouGov / Lucid Talk
Where we Currently Stand
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of
the European Union or leave the European Union?
Eng
Sco
Wales
NI
Remain
49%
61%
51%
65%
Leave
51%
39%
49%
35%
Proportion of Votes
83%
10%
5%
2%
Source: YouGov / Lucid Talk
Getting Scot-Blocked
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of
the European Union or leave the European Union?
Eng
Non-Eng
Remain
49%
58%
Leave
51%
42%
Difference in Votes
Source: YouGov / Lucid Talk
583,548 865,285
Important Issues
Which ONE of the following will be most important
to you in deciding how to vote in the referendum?
Which is likely to be better for jobs, investment and the economy generally
31%
Which is likely to strike a better balance between Britain's right to act independently,
and the appropriate level of co-operation with other countries
31%
Which is likely to help us deal better with the issue of immigration
20%
4%
7%
7%
Which is likely to maximise Britain's influence in the world
Something else
Don’t know
Source: YouGov · Fieldwork: 5th – 6th June 2016 · Sample: 2,001 British adults
Support for the Europe Union
70
60
Percentage
50
40
30
20
Approve of Brit Membership of EU
Disapprove of Brit Membership of EU
10
0
April 2004
Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey
Sample: c1,000 British adults per month
October 2015
The Economic Argument
Do you think Britain would be better or worse off economically if we left the
European Union, or would it make no difference?
50
45
40
Percentage
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Better off
Jan 2013
Worse off
No difference
Source: YouGov
Sample: c1,500 British adults
Don't know
June 2015
The Economic Argument
And do you think you personally would be better or worse off if we left the European
Union, or would it make no difference?
50
45
40
Percentage
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Better off
Jan 2013
Worse off
No difference
Source: YouGov
Sample: c1,500 British adults
Don't know
June 2015
Impact of Turnout
52
51.5
Percentage
51
50.5
50
49.5
49
Remain
48.5
Leave
48
Minimum
Simulated Turnout
Maximum
Complexity of Turnout
The Good, The Bad and the Daily Express
Assessing Risk in a Polling Context
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Who commissioned the polling?
Who is asking the questions?
What questions are they asking?
How are they asking the questions?
When are they asking the questions?
Who is answering the questions?
How is the data being analyzed?
How are the results being reported?
[email protected]
Twitter: @JoeTwyman Instagram: @PollPosition