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Sudan’s ‘Midstream Doctrine’
Saleh M.K. Saleh
Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee
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Outline
• Sudan: Downstream or Midstream?
• Factors Determining Sudan’s
‘Midstream Doctrine’
• Evidence of Sudan’s ‘Midstream
Doctrine’
• Future issues…
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Traditional Analysis: Sudan is Downstream
1959 Agreement with Egypt
• Article 5:
General Provisions
1. If it becomes necessary to hold any
negotiations concerning the Nile waters,
with any riparian state, outside the
boundaries of the two Republics, the
Governments of the Sudan Republic and
the United Arab Republic shall agree on a
unified view after the subject is studied
by the said Technical Commission
No significant amount of Nile’s water
originates in Sudan
More Modern Analysis:
Factors Determining Sudan’s Midstream
Position / Doctrine
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HISTORY
GEOGRAPHY
AGREEMENTS / COOPERATION WITH UPSTREAM RIPARIANS
DEMOGRAPHY
POLITICS
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Geography / Hydrology
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History
Sudan through the ages…
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Sudan through the ages…
The relatively modern / lasting impression…
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Demography
Ethnic Groups Shared by Sudan and Other
Riparians
Sudan / Uganda: Sebei, Lango, Acholi, Madi
Sudan / DRC: Tagbu,
Avukaya, Logo,
Kaliko, Dukpu,
Yulu, Azandi, Alur
Sudan / Egypt: Beja, Hedareb, Ababda
Bisharin, Kenuzi Nubians
Sudan / Ethiopia:
Wetawit, Shita,
Mekan, Donyiro,
Kichepo, Tirma,
Anuak, Daasanach,
Gumuz, Welega-Oromo
Sudan / Kenya: Luo, Nilotes
Sudan / Eritrea: Beni Amir,
Rashaida, Beja, Hedareb
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Politics
• The 1959 Agreement was not domestically
politically consensual or popular
Sudan Constitution 2005
• Nature of the State
‘ 1. The Republic of the Sudan is a sovereign,
democratic, decentralized, multi-cultural,
multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-religious, and
multi-lingual State…
Notably differing from Egypt
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Sudan’s International Agreements
• 1991 Sudan-Ethiopia Agreement
‘the principle of equitable utilisation of the
waters of The Blue Nile and Atbara River’
• 1997 UN Watercourses Convention
‘Equitable and Reasonable Utilization
Participation’
‘No Significant Harm’
‘General Obligation to Cooperate’
Applicability of Existing Agreements…
and
Art. 5
Art. 7
Art. 8
Art. 3
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Cooperation / Relations with
Upstream Riparians
• Co-financing of
Kara Dobe Dam in
Ethiopia: 38,000
MW, USD$ 800 m
• Regional supplier
of oil to Ethiopia,
possibly Eritrea
• South Sudan
mediation in
Uganda / LRA war
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Future Issues…
• Jonglei Canal /
Dream?
Potential for at
least 3.8 km3 of
extra water into
Nile annually
• South Sudan
secession in
2011…?
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Thanks for your
attention!