WORLD POPULATION
GROWTH
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International Conference by United Nations in
September to discuss global policy,
Latest scientific understanding.
The human population continues to grow by nearly 100
million people every year, and the next attempt by the
world's governments to address the issue will be made
at the International Conference on Population and
Development (ICPD, Cairo, September 1994). For this,
the world’s science academies have worked together to
develop the best possible insights into the issue so as
to inform the international debate.
This note reviews knowledge of the causes and
effects of population growth in the context of ICPD.
THE CURRENT SITUATION
The world's population is over 5,600 million (5.6 billion
-B), increasing each year by 1. 7% - approx 95 million
people each year (3 per second and 250,000 every day).
The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) prepares scenarios
for future growth, and in 1984, its 'm edium range'
forecast was that global population would stabilise at
10.2B towards the end of the 21st century. However,
although world population growth rates fell from 2. 1 %
in 1970 to 1. 8% in 1977, there has been little fall since,
and it is now predicted that the 10B figure will be
reached by 2050. Even this assum es that there will be
further substantial and sustained falls in fertility1; if
these fail to materialise, the world could be heading for
12.5B people by 2050 and 28B a century later. Som e 95%
of the increase in num bers is in less developed coun­
tries (LDCs), but because of the high per capita con­
sumption in developed countries (DCs), the lower
growth rates there can be of equal or greater importance
in som e respects (see later). In the UK sustainable
development strategy, U K population is expected to
grow from 57. 6M now to ~ 6 1 M in 2012 (6%).
Debate in the past has been marred by disagreement
over som e of the fundamental causes of high growth
rates and their effects on the environment, economic
development and quality of life, and significant n um ­
bers of countries did not consider their growth rates too
high. The last few years have seen a much broader
consensus emerging on the need to address the popu­
lation question more urgently, and the UN is to convene
the IC PD in 1994 to bring together governm ents and
non-governmental organisations to address the issues
of population, the environm ent and development.
In order to advance the scientific consensus on this
issue, the science academ ies of the world met in New
Delhi in Septem ber 1993 to explore the intertwined
1. The number of children borne by a woman during her life.
POST
note
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June
1994
POSTnotes ore intended to give Members on overview
of issues arising from science and technology. Members
can obtain further details from the PARLIAMENTARY
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (extension 2840).
problems of rapid population growth, resource con ­
sumption, environmental degradation and poverty.
This meeting drafted a statement which was supported
by 60 academ ies2 which " called on the G overnm ents and
international decision-m akers to take incisive action n ow and
adopt an integrated policy on population and sustainable
developm ent on a global scale". The statem ent set a target
of achieving zero population growth within the lifetime
of our children; it also recognised the im portance of
meeting individual as well as societal needs and set out
the policy priorities in the Box. The conference also set
out clearly the complex reality of this question.
CURRENT SCIENTIFIC INSIGHTS
Population and Economic Development
In the past, som e have claimed that developm ent is
encouraged by more people, since for every new 'mouth'
there are two 'hands' to increase production. This is
now viewed as out of date and there is m uch evidence
that rapid population growth offsets poten tial im prove­
ments in per capita incom e and food, and forces coun­
tries to increase consum ption rather than invest in
long-term im provem ents in health, education, infra­
structure and job opportunities. It is generally those
countries which have achieved a moderation or cessa­
tion of population growth which are m ost com petitive
internationally.
The most com prehensive review of the links between
population growth and developm ent was carried out
by the US National Research Council and updated at
the academ ies’ meeting. This concludes that slowing
population growth:
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increases per capita renewable resources;
alleviates pollution & environmental degradation;
increases the am ount of capital per worker, thereby
increasing output and consum ption per worker;
• increases the per capita provision of schooling;
• reduces incom e distribution inequalities;
• helps alleviate the problem s of urban growth.
At the sam e time, slower population growth does not
reduce innovation or reduce economies of scale.
There is also the em phasis following the 1992 UN
C o n f e r e n c e o n E n v ir o n m e n t and D e v e l o p m e n t
(U N C E D ) on sustainable development, seen as fa-
2. The Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the African Academy of
Sciences did not endorse the Joint statement and Issued their own.
P.O.S.T. B r i e f i n g N o t e
52
vouring a more equitable distribution of the determi­
nants of human well-being, while not exceeding the
constraints of the environment and its resources. Exist­
ing difficulties in defining and implementing a more
sustainable way of life can only be made harder by the
addition of an extra 100M people each year. In educa­
tion, rapid growth stretches education services, spend­
ing per pupil declines, and falls have been observed in
both enrolment rates and student achievement in coun­
tries undergoing large increases in school-aged
populations. Such countries also face rapid increases in
their labour forces. The number unemployed in LDCs
is already estimated to exceed the number employed in
developed countries, and the current LDC labour force
of ~2B will grow to ~3B by 2000, adding to the pressures
on the unemployed to become economic migrants.
June 1994
POLICIES TO REDUCE POPULATION GROWTH
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Population and the Environment
Impacts on the environment take many forms and are
linked both to human numbers and industrial develop­
ment. On Global Warming, concern is over emissions
of greenhouse gases, and UNCED urged countries to at
least stabilise their emissions of carbon dioxide (C 0 2) at
1990 levels by 2000. Energy consumption is a primary
source of C 0 2 and hence population growth in the
developed countries is particularly important (the UK
annual growth in population is 0.2% and 116,000 peo­
ple per year, but in terms of the amount of C 0 2emitted
this has more impact than Bangladesh's annual growth
of 2.4% and 2.7 million people). In addition, 18-33% of
worldwide C 0 2 emissions come from deforestation
driven in part by expanding populations and ’slash and
bum’ agriculture. Other greenhouse gases are also
affected by increasing population: rice paddies and
domestic cattle - food supplies for 2 billion people in
LDCs - are major producers of methane, and nitrous
oxide is released by forest burning and agriculture.
Urbanisation. Rural poverty and growing populations
have led to huge increases in the numbers of people
living in large conurbations where water, sanitation,
housing, health and education are inadequate. 3.1B
people (1.5 times the global population in 1950) are
expected to be living in urban areas of LDCs by 2015.
Desertification. Some drier lands in both LDCs and
DCs are undergoing extreme soil depletion due to over­
use. Increasing population is adding to pressures
through over-grazing and fuelwood collection in mar­
ginal or fragile land, particularly in parts of sub-Saha­
ran Africa, the Middle East and Southern Asia, where
some 580M people live in absolute poverty. Indeed
some LDCs can be seen as caught in a 'demographic
trap' whereby the fall in death rates has caused popu­
lation growth sufficient to outstrip the carrying capac­
ity of their ecosystems. They are thus in a race to reduce
their fertility to a sustainable level before their ecosys­
tems collapse leading to starvation, migration and
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Equal opport unities for women and men In sexual, social, and
economic life so they can make individual choices about
family size.
Universal access to convenient family planning and health
services, and a wide variety of safe and affordable contracep­
tive options.
Encouragement of voluntary approaches to family planning
and elimination of unsafe and coercive practices.
Clean water, sanitation, broad primary health care, and
education.
Appropriate governmental policies that recognize longerterm environmental responsibilities.
More efficiency and less environmentally damaging practices
in the developed world, through a new ethic that eschews
wasteful consumption.
Pricing, taxing, and regulatory policies that take into account
environmental costs, thereby influencing consumption be­
haviour.
The industrialized world to assist the developing world In
combating global and local environmental problems.
Promotion of the concept of “technology for environment".
Incorporation by governments of environmental goals in
legislation, economic planning, and priority setting, and in­
centives for organisations and individuals to operate in
environmentally benign ways.
Collective action by all countries.
ource: Statement by 60 of the World's Science Academies,
continued reliance on food aid.
Population and Biodiversity
A Biodiversity Convention was drawn up at the UNCED
conference, and has now been signed by over 150
countries of which 56 (including the UK) have ratified.
This has placed greater urgency on understanding the
ways in which population pressures may damage habitats, eliminatespeciesand reduce biodiversity. Because
the vast majority of the world's estimated 10 million or
more species are in tropical forests, recen t reviews focus
on the mechanisms through which increasing human
numbers and activities contribute to deforestation, soil
degradation and species loss.
In many areas, forest removal or damage is linked to the
demand for resources by the developed world (whether
for timber or beef pasture) and needs to be addressed
within the context of sustainable development. An
increasing amount of deforestation can however be
linked to the need to grow more food locally, and the
increasing demands on land and water from growing
numbers. Thus forest loss is linked statistically to
population growth in a survey of 41 countries in the
tropics, and the primary agent of forest destruction is
now the slash and bum agriculture of the 'shifted
cultivator' who migrates to the remaining unoccupied
lands to survive. This group has been growing rapidly
due to population pressures in already-occupied lands,
and is now the main livelihood for perhaps 600M
people.
P.O.S.T. B r i e f i ng N o
52
As a result of this and other pressures, tropical
forests have halved in extent in 40 years and
continue to disappear at a fast rate, but (in
contrast to Europe and N America) without
many of the cleared lands giving a sustainable
high yield - either because the tropical soils
cannot be transformed to intensive agriculture
or because the pace of change is too rapid for
institutions to evolve to encourage sustainable
use. Thus 70,000 km2 of farmland are aban­
doned each year, while 150,000 km2 of fresh
forest are cleared. The effects on biodiversity
are estimated to be to make 27,000 - 90,000
species of plants and animals extinct each year.
These rates probably exceed those of previous
mass extinctions in the World's past, such as that
associated with the demise of the dinosaurs.
The Demographic Transition
The move from a stable population based on high
fertility and mortality to one based on low mortality
and low fertility is called the demographic transition.
Developed countries have generally made this transi­
tion, but in LDCs, although there has been a drastic fall
in mortality over the last 40 years3, there has been no
consistent pattern to subsequent fertility trends (Figure
1). Some countries (e.g. in SE and E Asia) have seen falls
in fertility follow rapidly or even precede the fall in
mortality from improved health, nutrition etc. Others
have seen no appreciable change (e.g. countries of subSaharan Africa, also Iran, Nepal) so that very high
population growth rates follow. Many have searched
for a simple 'formula' to explain these differences, but
for every general rule there have been exceptions - this
was looked at in detail by the academies.
Some experts used to hold that economic development
was the essential precursor to a decline in fertility rates
(i.e. 'development is the best contraceptive'). There is
however no such automatic linkage. Putting together
many studies at regional, country, and local levels leads
to the conclusion that fertility declines are generally
associated with indices of social development (longev­
ity, adult (especially female) literacy levels, schooling
prevalence), with income a subsidiary factor. Family
planning (FP) services are essential, but these may be
in response to an existing demand as well as the cause
of that demand. Recent comparisons between fertility
trends in countries with similar cultures and religions
indicate that the importance of clear political leader­
ship and religious acceptance have been underesti­
mated. Comparing contrasting official attitudes for
and against FP in pairs of countries (e.g. South and
North Korea, Bangladesh and Pakistan, Colombia and
Mexico, E g y p t/ Tunisia/ Morocco versus A lgeria/
Libya/ Iran / Iraq) demonstrates that Governments can
3. Life expectancy In developing countries has reached 61, compared to
74 In developed countries. In 1950, It was 42 and 64 respectively.
June 1994
substantially speed up or delay the demographic tran­
sition, with drastic effects on the final size of their
populations. Analogous comparisons indicate that re­
ligious leaders in some countries also play a key role.
Recent studies have also brought into focus the vicious
circle in resource-impoverished environments where,
in order to survive in an area where food, fuelwood and
water are ever harder to obtain, large families are
required - even if this overloads further an environment
already incapable of supporting existing numbers. This
model is thought to explain the failure to reduce fertility
in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Indian sub­
continent, where severe environmental degradation is
both a result and a cause of population growth.
OveralI Conclusions
The overall conclusion of the academies is that while
the relationships between human population, economic
development, and natural environment are complex
and not fully understood, "there is no doubt that the threat
to the ecosystem is linked to population size and resource use.
Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, ozone depletion and
acid rain, loss of biodiversity, deforestation and loss of topsoil,
shortages of water, food and fuel indicate how the natural
systems are being pushed ever closer to their limits. To deal
with the social, economic, and environmental problems, we
must achieve zero population growth within the lifetime of
our children."
This is not to say that population is the only important
factor affecting development, the environment, human
health, biodiversity etc., but that reducing growth rates
and ultimately stabilising or reducing population to a
sustainable level are the essential prerequisites for long­
term progress in these areas. While fast growth contin­
ues, any short-term success (e.g. through land reforms,
democracy, new technologies), will ultimately be ne­
gated by the increased pressure of greater numbers.
The urgency seen by the academies is derived from the
demographic momentum inherent in expanding
populations. The annual addition of 93M at the begin-
P.O.S T.
B r i e f i n g N o t e 52
Table 1 MAIN CHAPTERS IN PROPOSED PLAN OF ACTION
June 1994
Figure 2
UK POPULATION AID (£M AND AS % TOTAL AID)
Interrelationships between population, sustained economic growth
and sustainable development.
Gender equality, equity and empowerment of women.
The family, its roles, rights, composition and structure.
Population growth and structure.
Reproductive rights, sexual and reproductive health, family planning.
Health, morbidity and mortality.
Population distribution, urbanisation and Internal migration.
International migration.
Population and development Information, education, communication.
Technology, research and development.
National action. International action. International cooperation.
ning of this decade will rise to 100M by the end despite
a moderate fall in fertility, because of the high propor­
tion of LDC population under 15. Each year action is
delayed increases by 100 million or more the level at
which population will ultimately stabilise. Even the
'medium' growth projection (8B by 2020) is dependent
on fertility falling from an average of 3.7 children per
woman in the LDCs to 2.3 by 2020/5 (in Africa, today’s
rate of 5.9 would have to be cut to 3).
OPTIONS AT THE ICPD
Three sessions of the ICPD Preparatory Committee
have already been held, so the main options for the
conference's Programme of Action are becoming clearer.
The Cairo meeting will negotiate basic principles on
which the plan will be based (e.g. freedom of choice
through sexual and reproductive health care; reduce
unsustainable patterns of production and consump­
tion; rights for migrants) and develop an agreed text on
16 chapters (see Table 1). The contentious issues in­
clude definitions (particularly reproductive and sexual
health issues where the role of the Vatican is critical if
the meeting is to reach agreement by consensus rather
than vote), and the question of resource requirements.
On the latter point, UNFPA points out that modem
contraception accounts for about 85% of the fertility
decline in LDCs; the overall prevalence of use has
increased from 15% of couples in the 1960s to 51 % today
- around 380M users. Nevertheless, some 400 million
couples in the LDCs are without access to modem FP
services of which at least 120M would use FP if it were
available (in Africa, 77% of married women who want
no more children are not using contraception). Demand
will also double over the next 15 years due to the rapid
growth in the number of women reaching child-bearing age. A demand for FP services of many times the
current level of provision is thus foreseen.
The UN estimates that the current annual spend of
$4.5B on FP will need to double or triple by 2000 if
demand is to be met. Three-quarters of current ex­
penditure is by the developing countries concerned,
and international development aid has increased little
4. Economic assessments (Lancet, Nov 24,1990,p1294) suggest an
Increase of $1.1B In FP expenditure would SAVE $2B in maternal / child
care costs and up to $12B In the costs of universal primary education.
in real terms and has barely kept up with the growth in
the couples of reproductive age. To meet anticipated
demand, UNFPA has requested for many years that4%
of overseas aid go to population programmes4. At
present the average is 1.5%. While some countries have
adopted the 4% figure (e.g. Norway), the UK priority
given to population programmes would need to rise
substantially from its current level (1.6% of develop­
ment aid) to match (Figure 2). The question of what
commitments the DCs and Development Banks will be
prepared to make at Cairo to increase support for FP
services is thus central to the outcome of the ICPD.
As far as contraceptive technologies are concerned, the
requirements for an 'ideal' contraceptive are easy to
define (cheap, effective, free of side-effects, easy to use)
and the market is huge. Despite the availability of a
range of options, there is still a need perceived for more
effective and easily administered contraception for both
women and men. Nevertheless, companies carry out
little research, nor are governments very active, so that
there is a serious shortage emerging of those trained
and able to research in this field. The main centre of
activity is the World Health Organisation's programme
on Human Reproduction with a budget of $24M (the
UK is a major donor to this programme) and some non­
profit groups also support research (~$16M). This too
will be an issue at Cairo.
The complex reality of the population question out­
lined earlier in this note is thus reflected in the complex­
ity of the ICPD programme and there remain difficult
issues to resolve at Cairo, particularly how to mesh
religious views on reproductive and sexual health and
family planning with today's realities as described in
the academies' statement. The ICPD is widely seen as
the best opportunity this decade to address this issue,
and the academies urge the ICPD to "le t 1994 be
remembered as the year when the people of the world decided
to act together for the benefit o f future generations''. In this
context, the academies point out that because of the
high levels of consumption in DCs, the target of zero
population growth is just as important to achieve in
developed countries as developing countries.
Copyright POST, 1994.