2014 NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION
Oakland Athletics v. Josh Reddick
Submission on Behalf of Oakland Athletics
Midpoint: $2,325,000
Submission by Team 17
Table of Contents
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
Introduction and Request for Hearing………………………………………………3
Length and Consistency of Career Contributions: Inconsistency…………………..3
Existence of Physical or Mental Defects: Injury Prone Wrist……………………...5
Quality of Contribution in past season: Injured and Unreliable……………………5
Comparable Players………………………………………………………………...7
a. Ian Stewart……………………………………………………………………...7
b. Ryan Roberts…………………………………………………………………....8
c. Jeremy Hermida…………………………………………………………….......8
Past Salary: League Minimum…………………………………………….………..9
Recent Performance of Club: Successes………………………………...……....…10
Summary and Conclusion………………………………………………………….11
List of Sources
Baseball-Reference, Sports Reference, LLC, www.baseball-reference.com.
CBS Sports, CBS Interactive, www.cbssports.com
ESPN, espn.go.com
MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, “2012 – 2016 Basic Agreement,” Art. VI(E)(10)(a) –
(b)
New York Times, The New York Times Company, nytimes.com.
Yahoo Sports, Yahoo, sports.yahoo.com.
2
I.
Introduction and Request for Hearing
This brief analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of right fielder Josh Reddick’s (“Mr.
Reddick”) in negotiating his 2014 contract with the Oakland A’s (“A’s”). The Major League
Baseball (“MLB”) Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”) requires consideration of the
following criteria where determining a player’s award: (1) the quality of the Player’s
contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall
performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); (2) the existence of any physical
or mental defects on the part of the Player; (3) the length and consistency of his career
contribution; (4) the record of the Player’s past compensation; (5) comparative baseball salaries;
and (6) the recent performance record of the Club, including but not limited to its League
standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance.1 Mr. Reddick’s 3.05 years of
service make him eligible for arbitration.
Due to lack of productivity, questionable reliability, and systemic wrist injuries
throughout his career, Mr. Reddick is not worth the $2.325 million midpoint. While he is a
valuable team player, the A’s $2.1 million offer is a fair and amicable representation of Mr.
Reddick’s value to the club for the 2014 season. Therefore, the A’s respectfully request that this
panel find that Mr. Reddick is entitled to a 2014 salary arbitration award of $2.1 million.
II.
Length and Consistency of Career Contributions: Inconsistency
The reasonable expectation is that as a player gains major league experience, his
statistical performance and consistency should improve over time. Instead, Mr. Reddick’s
production has steadily decreased over the past three seasons. Reddick has played in the majors
1
MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, “2012 – 2016 Basic Agreement,” Art. VI(E)(10)(a) – (b)
3
for five seasons, but has only completed three. Mr. Reddick’s consistency has steadily declined
since 2011, his first full season in the majors.
In 2011, Reddick showed promise, batting .280.2 During that season, however, he played
in just 87 games. In the following season (2012), Reddick’s batting average dropped 38 points, to
.242. To continue the downward trend, Reddick’s average fell another 16 points in 2013 to a
mere .226. These consistent reductions in batting average should be considered in determining
Reddick’s value in arbitration.
Year3
Games
AB
Runs
Doubles
RBIs
HR
BA
Slugging
OPS
2011
87
254
41
18
28
7
.280
.457
.784
2012
156
611
85
29
85
32
.242
.463
.768
2013
114
385
54
19
56
12
.226
.379
.686
Although he showed power hitting capabilities in 2012, Reddick’s significant drop-off
from those numbers in 2013 suggests 2012 was more a fluke than an indication of what is to
come. Compared to 2012, when Reddick hit 32 home runs, 29 doubles, and drove in 85 runs,4 his
performances in 2011 and 2013 were far inferior. In 2011, Reddick hit a mere 7 home runs, 18
doubles, and 28 RBIs. In 2013, Reddick returned to his norm, hit 12 home runs, 19 doubles, and
56 RBIs. Reddick’s 2012 season apparently came out of nowhere, as he had never hit more than
7 home runs before that season. Had Reddick continued his power hitting improvement in 2013,
it would have suggested his ability to contribute to the team as a power hitter. To the contrary,
his drop-off merely adds another question mark to Reddick’s inconsistent hitting track record.
2 Josh Reddick Statistics and History. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml.
3
Josh Reddick Statistics and History. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml.
4 Id.
4
III. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects: Injury Prone Wrist
Josh Reddick not only has a history of wrist problems, which can be traced back as far as
his time with the Boston Red Sox in 2009, but is coming off arthroscopic wrist surgery in
October 2013. He had a left wrist tendon injury in 2011, while still with the Red Sox, ultimately
leading to offseason wrist surgery in 2011. In 2012, he appeared healthy, playing in 156 games.
However, his wrist injuries returned in 2013, during which he had two stints on the DL.
April 7th 2013, he was listed day-to-day, after colliding with the outfield wall chasing a fly ball.
On May 7th, he was placed on the 15-day DL for the same sprained right wrist. On August 26th,
2013, he was placed on the 15 day designated list with a sprained right wrist. Most recently, as
mentioned above, he underwent wrist surgery in October.
There is a legitimate concern as to whether (a) Reddick will be ready to return by spring
training, and (b) whether his wrist injuries will return to prevent him from playing at a high (or at
least moderate) level, or potentially prevent him from playing altogether. Reddick’s injury
history brings question to his reliability moving forward; this uncertainty should be reflected in
the arbitration agreement, warranting a $2.1 million salary award.
IV.
Quality of Contribution in past season: Injured and Unreliable
When not injured and on the DL—where Reddick found himself for 30% of the 2013
season— Mr. Reddick’s 2013 hitting numbers were abysmal. Reddick hit a mere .226, with just
12 home runs, 29 doubles, and 56 RBIs. His OPS was .686, based upon a .307 OBP and .379
SLG.5 Additionally, Reddick had 17 or fewer hits in all but one month of the season.
While Reddick picked up the pace in September—hitting .304—in all other months he
batted a mere .212.6 Nonetheless, Reddick’s September is more attributable to the reduced
5
6
Josh Reddick Statistics and History. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml.
Josh Reddick-Splits, YaHoo Sports. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8544/splits/.
5
pitching quality he faced, rather than improved batting. In September, Reddick played in just 2
games against a team with a winning record—the Texas Rangers—and during those games, his
average dropped 19 points to .285.7 In Reddick’s 15 remaining September games, he batted .306
against the Mariners, Angels, and Twins, who finished the season a combined 66 games under
.500.8 As ball clubs out of playoff contention typically use their September games to play and
experiment with prospects called-up from the minors, Mr. Reddick’s September statistics were
inflated by playing against lesser competition.
Mr. Reddick’s struggles at the plate went beyond his failure to hit; he struggled to reach
base. Reddick’s OBP - .307 - was a full 20 points lower than the A’s team wide .327 OBP.
Reddick’s OBP struggles would have been problematic regardless of where he played; his OBP
was below team averages on 73% of MLB teams during the 2013 season. Nor can Reddick be
described as a power hitter, with just 12 home runs and 19 doubles. Additionally, Reddick had
more than twice as many strikeouts (86) than extra base hits (33).
Accentuating his struggles, Mr. Reddick bats poorly when facing lefties. He hit just .200
against left handed-pitchers (“LHP”) (compared to .226 overall), had an OBP of .299 (compared
to .307), and had a reduced SLG of .368 (compared to .379 overall). As a result, teams seek to
exploit his weaknesses by bringing in LHPs to face Reddick in late game situations. This
inability to hit left handed pitching should undoubtedly be considered in determining his
arbitration ability.
Taken as a whole, Mr. Reddick’s statistical performance in 2013 was unsatisfactory. He
displayed a poor batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage. He failed to
create extra base hits, and had just one more hit than strike outs on the season. Taking this
7
8
Josh Reddick-Game-Logs, YaHoo Sports. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8544/gamelog/.
MLB Standings, ESPN. http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings.
6
season’s poor hitting performance into account, the A’s offer of $2.1 million more than reflects
Reddick’s value as a player and member of the organization.
V.
Comparable Players
In order to properly evaluate Mr. Reddick’s value to the A’s, it is useful to compare his
platform season with the platform seasons of Ian Stewart (“Stewart”), Ryan Roberts (“Roberts”),
and Jeff Hermida (“Hermida”).
A.
Ian Stewart
In 2011, Stewart’s platform season, the Colorado Rockies and Stewart settled below the
midpoint at $2.228 million. In that season, Stewart outperformed Reddick with 99 hits (Reddick
– 87), 74 runs (Reddick – 54), 18 home runs (Reddick – 12), RBIs (Reddick – 56), a .256 batting
average (Reddick - .226), a .338 OBP (Reddick - .307), a .443 slugging percentage (Reddick .379), and a .781 OPS (Reddick - .686). Stewart managed to put up these metrics in 7 less games.
While neither player can be aptly described as a power hitter, Stewart’s statistics indicate that he
is a better play in terms of both getting on base, and with regards to driving runners home.
Considering Stewart’s settlement under his midpoint of $2.375 million, and using
Stewart’s platform season as a precedent, the A’s $2.1 million offer adequately compensates
Reddick for his anticipated 2014 season.
9
Player
G
AB
H
R
2B
HR
RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
Ian
Stewart9
(2010) –
$2.227 M
Josh
Reddick
121
386
99
74
14
18
61
.256
.338
.443
.781
114
385
87
54
19
12
56
.226
.307
.379
.686
Ian Stewart Statistics and History. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewaia01.shtml
7
B.
Ryan Roberts
In 2011, Roberts’ platform season, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Roberts reached a
deal worth $2,012,500. Comparing Reddick to Ryan Roberts establishes Reddick’s worth at a
value well below the $2.35 million midpoint.
The chart below displays similarities between Roberts’ and Reddick’s platform seasons,
but accentuates Roberts’ superiority in almost every statistical category. Roberts hit 7 points
higher (.249 avg to .242), had a 36 point OBP advantage (.341 to .305), had a full 50 point
slugging percentage advantage (.427 to .377), and had an OPS advantage of 82 points (.768 to
.686). Roberts hit 7 more home runs (19 to 12), and drove in 9 more runs (65 to 56).
Additionally, Roberts had 7 more steals (18 to 11). Not only did Roberts’ statistical performance
exceed Reddick’s, but Roberts is more versatile, playing 2B, 3B, and LF.
Like Roberts, Reddick has struggled with injuries, although Roberts was able to play in
more games in each player’s respective platform season. Using Roberts’ settlement as precedent,
the A’s $2.1 million offer for Mr. Reddick’s 2014 services is appropriate and adequate.
Player
G
AB
H
Ryan
Roberts10
(2011) –
$2.012
Million
Josh
Reddick
143
482
114
385
C.
10
R
2B
HR
RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
120 86
25
19
65
.249
.341
.427
.768
87
19
12
56
.226
.307
.379
.686
54
Jeremy Hermida
Ryan Roberts Statistics and History. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberry01.shtml#trans
8
In 2008, Hermida’s platform season, the Florida Marlins and Hermida reached an
agreement outside of arbitration for $2.25 million.11 Hermida outperformed Reddick in terms of
both getting on base and driving runners home. While Hermida had more plate appearances in
his platform season, that reflects his ability to remain healthy, whereas Reddick has been forced
to miss time because of injuries. Hermida nonetheless outpaced Reddick with 502 at-bats
(Reddick – 385), 125 runs (Reddick – 87), 74 runs (Reddick – 54), 22 doubles (Reddick – 19),
17 home-runs (Reddick – 12), 61 RBIs (Reddick – 56), .249 batting average (Reddick - .226),
.323 OBS (Reddick - .307), .406 SLG (Reddick - .379), .729 OPS (Reddick - .686). Additionally,
Hermida managed to steal more bases that Reddick, 6 to 2, respectively.12 Notwithstanding,
Hermida garnered a $2.25 million settlement after his platform season. Using Hermida’s contract
as a precedent, the A’s $2.1 million offer appropriately compensates Reddick for his anticipated
2014 season.
VI.
Player
G
AB
Jeremy
Hermida13
(2008) –
$2.250
Million
Josh
Reddick
142 502
114 385
H
R
2B
HR
RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
125 74
22
17
61
.249
.323
.406
.729
87
19
12
56
.226
.307
.379
.686
54
Past Salary: League Minimum
11
American and National Leagues: Notes on New Deals, NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/sports/20iht-base20.19536556.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
12
Jeremy Hermida Statistics and History. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hermije01.shtml
13
Id.
9
Mr. Reddick’s past salaries—consistently at the league minimum—reflect concerns over
his declining averages in batting and hitting, weaknesses against lefties, and reoccurring injuries.
In 2009, Mr. Reddick received a $400,000 salary from the Red Sox. Because he was injured
throughout 2010 and 2011, Mr. Reddick received a pro rata salary, where he played 29 and 87
games, respectively. In 2012, he received a salary of $485,000—$5,000 over the league
minimum—and in 2013, he received a salary of $510,000—$20,000 over the league minimum.
Based on Mr. Reddick’s past salaries, the A’s $2.1 million offer is a substantial and appropriate
increase, reflecting a balance of the risks and rewards anticipated in 2014.
VII.
Recent Performance of Club
The A’s finished their 2013 campaign with a 96-66 record, exiting the post season with a
loss to the Detroit Tigers in the AL Divisional Series.14 This result was identical to their 2012
performance. Indeed, there is no reason to believe that the A’s will not be capable of defending
their back-to-back divisional titles. With a strong pitching core and power hits such as Josh
Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie, and Coco Crisp, the A’s have set themselves up for
success. While Josh Reddick figures to play a part in that success, his role on the team deserves
considerable consideration when awarding Mr. Reddick his 2014 salary. Mr. Reddick typically
batted in the bottom third of the line-up, and his numbers in terms of power hitting and getting
on base reflected that.15
The A’s will likely have great successes moving forward, as they look to expand on their
past playoff presence. Nonetheless, Mr. Reddick’s past injury history, as well as his place on the
A’s lineup, warrants the club’s $2.1 million offer. The A’s believe that Mr. Reddick can
14
15
Oakland Athletics, Baseball-Reference. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2013.shtml.
Id.
10
continue to improve, and hope that rest will enable him to play a full season. Because the A’s
believe Mr. Reddick will fulfill this role, their $2.1 million offer is appropriate.
VI.
Summary and Conclusion
Throughout the past couple seasons, much uncertainty has surrounded Josh Reddick. His injury
prone wrist and general lack of power hitting has followed Mr. Reddick throughout his career.
The A’s are appreciative of the hard-work and commitment that Mr. Reddick has brought to the
pitch, and believe that he can continue to benefit the club in the future. However, given the
aforementioned anxieties over his ability to remain healthy, get on base, and drive runners home,
the A’s are appropriately concerned that Mr. Reddick has over valued himself. Mr. Reddick’s
role is sure to remain consistent, but the A’s hope that he will improve on past successes. Thus,
based on the evidence, analysis, and comparisons found in this brief, the A’s respectfully request
that this panel award Mr. Reddick a salary of $2.1 million.
11