INTRODUCTION Real-Time Decision Aiding: Aircraft Guidance for Wind Shear Avoidance L). ALEXANDER STRATTON ROBERT STENGEL, Fellow, IEEE Princeton University Modern estimation theory and artificial intelligence technology are applied to the Wind Shear Safety Advisor, a conceptual airborne advisory system to help flight crew avoid or survive encounter with hazardous low-altitude wind shear. Numerical and symbolic processes of the system fuse diverse, time-varying data from ground-based and airborne measurements. Simulated wind-shear-encounterscenarios illustrate the need to consider a variety of factors for optimal decision reliability. The wind-shear-encountersimulations show the potential of the Wind Shear Safety Advisor for effectively integrating the available information, highlighting the benefits of the compulational techniques employed. Air crews are faced with critical decisions in an increasingly information-rich environment. While automation handles a greater percentage of procedural operations, the crew retains responsibility for vigilant monitoring, situational awareness, and efficient planning. Strategic decisions that significantly affect the course of the mission must be made under uncertainty using diverse and conflicting evidence as well as background knowledge. A pilot's decision to continue a takeoff or landing threatened by low-altitude wind shear is an example in which time-critical strategic decisions must be made from incomplete and possibly conflicting data. Low-altitude wind shear is a spatial and temporal variation of winds near the ground. Severe, low-altitude wind shear has caused several air carrier accidents with great loss in life [l].Microbursts (small (1-2 mi.), short-lived (5-30 min.)convective downdrafts that form strong horizontal outflow winds upon reaching the ground) can cause sudden, disastrous aircraft deviations from approach or departure flight paths, as depicted in Fig. 1. I f a microburst is encountered, the pilot must react within seconds to prevent an unacceptable loss of altitude. Studies of microburst wind shear have provided an understanding of phenomenology and structure (e.g., [2, 3]), detection technology (e.g., [4, 5]), flight crew training programs [6], and flight guidance strategies for recovery (e.g., [6, 71). Improving the flight crew's capability to avoid wind shear is an issue of continuing interest. Microburst 4 , Fig. 1. Wind shear avoidance. penetration, recovery Manuscript received March 3, 199 IEEE Log No. T-AES/31/1/08009. This work was supported by the Federal Aviation Administration and NASA Langley Research Center under NASA Grant NAG-1.834. Based on a presentation at the AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Jan. 1992. Authors' current addresses: D. A. Stratton, Parker Hannifin Corp., Gull Electronics Div., Smithtown, NY; R. Stengel, Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Princeton University, EO. Box CNS263, Princeton, NJ 08544-5263. OOl8-9251/9S/$4.00@ 1995 IEEE Flight safety is best achieved by avoiding hazardous wind shear, but the crew cannot always predict its presence along the flight path far enough in advance to divert from the area. While microbursts often occur in conjunction with locally severe convective weather, conventional indicators of weather such as radar reflectivity do not correlate reliably with wind shear intensity. New ground-based systcms have been developed for microburst detection at airports, including Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) and Low-Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWAS). With LLWAS installations at approximately 100 U.S. airports, and with TDWR installations planned for 47 airports, aircraft require on-board wind shear alert systems not only to supplement ground-based systems 1EI.E TKANSAC'I'IONS O N AEROSPACE AND ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS VOL. 31, NO. 1 JANUARY 1995 117 LLWAS TDWR Fareerits Wrather d a u Futum products Wnihn n d . r Fig. 2. Schematic diagram of wind shear safety advisor. but to increase safety when landing at unequipped airports. Airborne forward-looking sensors warn several seconds in advance of encounter, enabling a last-minute avoidance or recovery maneuver. Reactive wind shear detectors that monitor aircraft motion sensors can alert the flight crew only as wind shear is encountered. The variety of information sources complicates time-critical decision-making, so it is important to define ways for aiding the crew. Our earlier papers present rule-based techniques for aiding wind shear avoidance [8], Bayesian networks for assessing the risk of encountering wind shear [9], and multivariable estimators for predicting wind shear intensity [lo, 111. This paper describes computational logic that integrates the methods presented in [S-111 for the Wind Shear Safety Advisor (WSSA), a system to help pilots avoid and escape hazardous wind shear. The WSSA, depicted in Fig. 2, can fuse information from on-board and ground-based sources to provide advance warnings and guidance. Simulations of the WSSA illustrate its ability to process time-varying data from a number of information sources. The logic development techniques used in the WSSA provide a general framework that could be applied to many other systems for real-time decision-making involving uncertainty. COMPUTATIONAL STRUCTURES FOR W I N D SHEAR DECISION AIDING The computational structure of the WSSA integrates rule-based and Bayesian processes with multivariable estimation (Fig. 3). The logic includes 234 rules, 150 conditional probability assignments, and 40 estimation algorithms. It incorporates statistical information that spans several years of meteorological study [2, 12-17], implementing a model of flight crew actions described in a comprehensive flight crew training program, the FAA Windshear Training Aid [6].Rule-based processes that control the execution of Bayesian reasoning and estimation contain declarative statements that prescribe the conditions under which all decision-aiding functions are executed. Bayesian logic explicitly represents a model of uncertain cause-effect relationships involving wind shear with probability assignments. Quantitative stochastic models are used to design multivariable estimators that provide data for rule-based and Bayesian processing 118 Fig. 3. Wind shear safety advisor top-level structure with arrows pointing to controlling process. Fig. 4. Data flow through WSSA. (Fig. 4). Rule-based, Bayesian, and multivariable estimation processes of the WSSA are described below. RULE-BASED REPRESENTATION FOR DECISION AIDING WSSA primary functions are described with rules-"if-then'' statements coded in an elementary symbolic language. Implementing decision-aiding functions in an explicit symbolic format simplifies system development and facilitates execution-time debugging and validation. The rule base can be automatically translated into a procedural format for real-time operation, following the methods of (181. Primary WSSA functions are divided into separate rule bases flor monitoring, assessment, planning, and guidance, as described below. The monitoring rule base compiles the most recent reports from available ground-based and airborne information sources by processing any available measurements at each cycle. On-board state elements determined from multivariable estimators include airand ground -referenced vehicle motions and predicted wind shear intensity from forward-looking wind sensors; location and intensity of radar reflectivity and lightning flash rate also are obtained. Reports from ground-based sources such as TDWR, LLWAS, and the Automated Terminal Information System (ATIS) are processed. The WSSA informs the flight crew whenever the state of a system changes significantly. The strategic decision to continue or abort a takeoff or landing is based on the risk of encountering IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AEROSPACE AND ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS VOL. 31. NO. 1 JANUARY 1995 weather hazards. The assessment rules control the computation of the probabilities of encountering severe wind shear and heavy precipitation given the reported information, using a Bayesian network described below. A risk level of low, medium, or high is assigned as a function of these probabilities. An avoidance strategy, such as a delay in takeoff or a missed approach, is determined by the planning rule base if the risk level is high. If the risk level is medium, then precautionary procedures that increase the performance of the aircraft in inadvertently encountered wind shear are recommended. The guidance rules produce various advisories or alerts depending on severity and time-criticality of the situation, informing the flight crew of the relevant information leading to the advisory or alert. The highest state of alert, a Time-Critical Executive-Level Alert, occurs only when aircraft motion sensors indicate the aircraft is in hazardous performance-decreasing wind shear. If this occurs, the WSSA recommends recovery procedures that depend on the airspeed of the aircraft, groundspeed, runway remaining, and proximity to terrain. Following a wind shear encounter, the WSSA reminds the flight crew to issue a pilot report. BAYESIAN NETWORK UNCERTAINTY MANAG EMENT Strategic decisions associated with avoiding microburst wind shear must account for the unccrtainty surrounding its forecasting and detection. Observational study of wind shear has provided useful statistical data on microburst frequency and characteristics. For example, the frequency of microbursts has been established as a function of thunderstorm frequency [12]; air mass and supercell thunderstorms, with accompanying precipitation, lightning, and turbulence, are the most typical sources of microburst [2]. In arid geographical regions, microburst frequency is greater due to outflow from high-altitude storms in conjunction with dry surface conditions. Only about 1 of 20 storm cells is capable of producing an outflow hazardous enough to be classified as a microburst [6]. Distributions of microburst intensity, size, and duration have been obtained from dual Doppler radar measurements [15]. Statistical performance measures for ground-based warning systems, such as probabilities of correct warning and false warning, have been derived from operational testing [16, 171. A qualitative model of wind shear meteorology was developed as a basis for computing the risk of encountering hazardous weather. The probabilistic model incorporates available statistical data from [2, 12-17] and is based on Bayesian network representation techniques [19]. Discrete-valued random variables are represented as square nodes, and arrows point from cause to effect in Fig. 5. Absence of a Fig. 5. Bayesian network model for nsk assessment, direct link between nodes indicates that they are assumed to be independently generated; for example, lightning and wind shear are modeled as independent manifestations of convective weather, and one does not cause the other. A vector of prior probabilities is associated with each node; a matrix of conditional probabilities is associated with each arrow of the network, relating the likelihood that a given cause will produce a given effect. Bayes's Theorem is used to update the network through these conditional relationships each time new evidence is obtained. When new evidence is obtained, Bayesian reasoning is initiated with probabilities related to the spatial and temporal relevance of the new information. For example, Fig. 6 is a histogram of microburst duration derived from [13] with a Rayleigh probability distribution function fit to the data. As this figure shows, the relevance of ground-based wind shear alerts and pilot reports (PIREPs) decays in a period of minutes. When alerts are successively broadcast, the more recent information renders the older information obsolete; revised probabilities reflect the increased relevance of the more recent information. The network variables of Fig. 5 are functions of space and time; whenever the place or time of' terminal operations is altered, the Bayesian network is reinitialized to reflect the change. The risk level is determined from the probability of < 0.002), wind shear encounter, Pw,,to be low (Pws medium (0.002 5 Pws< 0.01), or high (Pws 2 0.01). The risk level also is assigned a value of high if the probability of heavy precipitation exceeds 0.9. Ranges for Pws were assigned so that the WSSKs risk levels correspond with those designated by the Windshear Training Aid authors for twelve Windshear Training Aid Weather Evaluation Exercises [9]. For example, STRATTON & STENGEL REAL-TIME DECISION AIDING: AIRCRAFT GUIDANCE FOR WIND SHEAR AVOIDANCE 119 0 2 4 6 8 IO 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Duration time, min t \ R d u l H'md Cornranenis Fig. 6. Histogram of microburst duration with Rayleigh distribution function, c = 0.0114 min-' (solid line). observation of convective weather near the flight path, unaccompanied by direct evidence of wind shear, results in medium risk. I ' + D~rw:e MULTIVARIABLE STATE ESTIMATION A N D HAZARD PREDICTION Estimation of the aircraft state and predictions of wind shear intensity must be made in an uncertain environment from measurements corrupted by error. Optimal estimation theory [20, 211 provides a basis for developing multivariable estimators to mitigate noise and disturbances, given a stochastic model of the aircraft and disturbance environment. State and hazard estimates are used in rules and to assign likelihood vectors for updating the Bayesian network. For example, an algorithm for predicting wind shear hazard from forward-looking sensors has been developed and refined for the WSSA [lo, 111. Forward-looking wind sensors, such as airborne Doppler weather radars, produce a series of wind measurement sequences in a volume directly forward of an aircraft (Fig. 7). Because the aircraft is moving through the wind field, predicting wind shear intensity from these measurements is improved by accounting for motion-induced correlations between the measurement sequences. The prediction algorithm consists of multiple parallel Kalman filters that exchange data to improve the hazard estimate as the aircraft moves toward an area of wind shear, updating hazard predictions (Fig. 8). A statistical analysis of the prediction algorithm's detection characteristics [ l l ] aids the refinement of the algorithm and provides data for the Bayesian network model. Observed statistics for microburst intensity and structure and a parametric microburst model [22] were used to generate an ensemble of microbursts for estimating the algorithm's probability of missed detection, PMD,and mean-square error as a function of a critical design parameter. An analytical method was used to estimate the probability of false warning, PFW.Fig. 9 presents estimakes of PMDand PFWfor the final prediction algorithm design as a function of the design threshold. This result is used to define 120 Fig. 8. Stochastic prediction algorithm measurement process Design W r h o l d of Algorithm Fig. 9. Statistical analysis of detection algorithm reliability. the matrix (of conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network linking the forward-looking sensor node to the wind shear node. SIMULATION OF THE WIND SHEAR SAFETY ADVISOR Results of simulating the WSSA in two wind-shear -encounter scenarios are presented. 'The scenarios, based on Weather Evaluation Exercises in the Windshear Training Aid, demonstrate the WSSA's ability to evaluate a variety of information and give timely advance warnings in wind shear situations. WSSA functions currently are implemented on a Symbolics 3670 LISP machine. Alerts and warnings generated by the WSSA appear as text displays on a multiple-window user interface (Fig. 10). This interface was designed to develop and evaluate the WSSA programs and is not a cockpit display. IBBE TRANSACTIONS ON AEROSPACE AND ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS VOL. 31, NO. 1 JANUARY 1995 DJdancc information and h e r hftraSilon WMOW h i . MDniiotinp window In lhls Window, guidance information of interest lo the flight crew is displayed, and a user can interact with the WSSA by enterina oommands with keyboard or mome. For eiample: Finished wiih the tutorial? h Lhi. wvM01. t h W S S will print wi I 'i*i"n' '"*'Y I*.mru.d. . I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ chooses an answer with the mouse. for example: INO ~ ~ ~ ~ I I Sensor hiom"ion W d o r Siaiui htormailon Window I. ........................................... In this window, $ensor inlormatim of interest to e flight crew 18 displayed. for example: /In this window. status i n f m e t i o n for t h e flbhl is displayed. curing takeoff or final approach, ~.........r.........*......................... WEATHER ADVISORY INFORMATION * A report ha3 been received frcm data link. . I* * * A LLWAS MB-ADVISORY was reported * 0.2 minutes ego a1 0.4 miles. Awaiting takeoff from OMAHA. Takeoff soheduled io begin In 3.0 MINUTES . ....................~*.~~~~*.~*.**........... * Risk of Wind Shear Encounter is LOW. Risk of Heavy Preoipitation is LOW. ....................*...****..........* ~~~~ ~ Fig. 10. WSSA user interface. (4 (b) Fig. 11. Simulated microburst encounter during takeoff. The first simulation, based on the sixth Weather Evaluation Exercise, begins 2 min before a summer afternoon departure from Denver's Stapleton Airport (Fig. ll(a)). ATIS information indicates dry surface conditions with a dewpoint depression of 38'. Twelve sec later, virga (evaporating precipitation associated with dry microbursts) is sighted near the departure path. The WSSA determines that the risk of wind shear encounter is medium, and it recommends precautions. Thirty sec before takeoff, a TDWR Wind Shear Advisory is received. This increases the risk level to high, and the WSSA issues a Wind Shear Advisory Alert, recommending a delay (Fig. 12). If a 15 min delay were accepted, the risk level would be reduced to medium. Otherwise, if the flight crew elects not to delay, they encounter microburst wind shear after liftoff (Fig. ll(b)). As departure commences, the WSSA recommends an aborted takeoff to avoid potential wind shear. The TDWR issues a Microburst Advisory 30 s into takeoff, but by this time the takeoff has progressed so far that aborting could cause the aircraft to roll off the end of the runway; therefore, the WSS,4 recommends continuing the takeoff. After takeoff, the aircraft encounters performance-increasing wind shear, followed by performance-decreasing wind shear. The WSSA declares a Time-Critical Executivc-Level Alert, directing the flight crew to execute a recovery procedure. As the aircraft descends to 50 ft, a Ground-Proximity Warning is declared, and the WSSA recommends further increases in pitch attitude and thrust. The wind shear has been transited 12 s later, and the WSSA displays an advisory recommending the issuance of a pilot report. The second simulation, based on the ninth Weather Evaluation Exercise, takes place during an evcning approach to Stapleton Airport (Fig. 13(a)). The aircraft is equipped with an airborne Doppler weather radar and a lightning detection system. ATIS reports that rainshowers and thunderstorms are in the area, and reports a low dewpoint depression, indicating that dry microburst wind shear is less likely. Airborne radar indicates an area of moderate radar reflectivity near the flight path. The WSSA determines that thc risk S'IRA"ON & STENGEL: REAL-TIME DECISION AIDING: AIRCRAFT GUIDANCE FOK WIND SI1I:AK AVOIL>AUCI 121 ~ ~ ~ ............................................. ....................... .. Ouidanoe Inlormation and User h t r r a c t l o n Window Ih. halard 8s w w displayd. P U W I f f i & h.z.rd la 10 M d1.pl.y.d to Ih.IlWt ~ r . i , SO Ih h z w d Is l l o w diIpl.yed. PlzI"IN6. *n mvotdmnc. .Ir.t.gy I. r.qu1r.d fw I h I N X t Illghl W S . . 10 t k . . c a m n d . a .voiaanc. .tr.t.gy is to delay. $0 WINDSHEAR ADVISORY ALERT * RISK OF WIND SHEAR ENCOUNTER DURING ' TAKEOFF AT * : DENVER IS HIGH, DUE TO: DRY-SURFACE VIRGA TDWR. WS-ADVISORY * ~ ~ ~ ! YES NO ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Will the n e x t flight phase be delayed? ....................... Senrot Lnformrtlon wu*bor ............................................. WEATHER ADVISORY INFOAMATION . A report has been received from data link. A TDWR WS-ADVISORY was repwted near the TAKEOFF path at DENVER ' 0.2 minuies ago. .............................................. ....................... I Castu YlformallonW h d a w I ~~?~~.~~~!~?~*!~.~~?!~~******.. Awailing takeoff from DENVER Takeoff scheduled lo begin in 0.7 MIMITES ............................................. * Risk of Wind Shirar Encounter Is HIGH. Risk of Heavy Pl'ecipltallan is LOW. Fig. 12. WSSA determines risk is high. Siiuauon. E v c n q Approach 10 Denver Slapleton Fig. 13. Simulated microburst encounter duiring approach of wind shear encounter is medium, and displays a Weather Advisory recommending precautions. Over the next fifteen seconds, the area of reflectivity increases in intensity and moves toward the flight path, and lightning is detected in the vicinity of the radar contour. This information raises the risk of heavy precipitation to high, and the WSSA issues a Heavy Precipitation Warning recommending a missed approach. Seconds later, the WSSAs prediction algorithm detects moderate wind shear from Doppler wind measurements. A microburst is descending from the base of the thunderstorm onto the flight path (Fig. 13(b)). The WSSA determines that the risk of wind shear encounter is high, and it issues a Wind Shear Caution, recommending an immediate missed approach. Over the next 20 s the radar contour approaches the intended flight path, and severe wind shear is predicted from wind measurements. The WSSA declares a Wind Shear Warning, advising an immediate flight crew response (Fig. 14). Additional messages are displayed as high radar reflectivity and lightning move to intersect the flight path. Seventy 122 seconds after the WSSA first advised the flight crew to execute il missed approach, the microburst is encountered, and a Time-Critical Executive-Level Alert is declared. After the wind shear encounter, the WSSA displays a message recommending that the flight crew report the incident. These simulations show that wind shear detection systems ancl conventional weather indicators can work together to increase the margin of flight safety, given an effective strategy for integrating information in uncertain situations. Computational systems with the capability to reason with uncertainty could assist time-critical decision-making related to vehicle control, mission planning, and failure diagnosis. The feasibility of the WSSA concept could be established through operational testing and refinement of the knowledge base, and through piloted simulation of a real-time WSSA. Other uses of the WSSA logic remain to be explored; it could form the basis of a cockpilor simulator-based pilot training aid, and it could be incorporated in an automated system for haiard detection and flight guidance. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AEROSPACE AND ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS VOL. 31. NO. 1 JANUilRY 1995 * ~ ~ ~ ....................... Quidancc Inlormat~onand User InteractIan Window Rule Monm4r1g Window ....................... Ih. hallld In m w SkIWed. PLANNING A k i n i d I. to D. d1apl.y.d to tht fliphi c r w . a0 Itae n m r d I. mr dllplmycd. PUNNING ThWa I. lorward-loo* .I.it. m n d m1ss.d l p p M L h IS posllble. th r.comll*nd.d ~.id.n~. '0 FORWARD-LOOK WINDSEAR WARNING * RISK OF WIND SHEAR IS HIGH, DUE TO: * WEATHER-RADAR, EAW-PRECIPITATION LIGHTNINO-DETECTION, HIQH-FLASH-RATE FORWARD-LOOK. WARMNG RAlNSfiOWERS AVOlOANCE STRATEGY: MISSED APPROACH . . . I . ......................................... 119 a missed approach being called? ....................... .I,.L.~~ il m1n.d m ~ o . c h . MS NO I I I I Srniw InformationWindow I Slalut Inram"ion W W w ............................................. . . ' ............................................. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WEATHER ADVISORY INFORMATION 1 Awalllng approach at DENVER. Final approach scheduled to begin in 0.3 MINUTES. Risk of Wind Shear Encounter is HIGH. Risk of Heavy Preoipitetion Is HlQH I I Fig. 14. Wind shear warning issues. CONCLUSl ONS An integrated architecture of symbolic and numerical processes can aid strategic decisions in uncertain time-critical environments, using declaratively represented knowledge to combine a variety of available data. Probability theory provides a basis for modeling uncertainty in dynamic situations where timeliness affects the reliability of information. Both qualitative and quantitative stochastic models are incorporated in this logic-development framework. The computational structure of the Wind Shear Safety Advisor is composed of explicit assumptions that can be individually refined and validated through observational study or computational statistical analysis. The refined logic could be applied for real-time decision-aiding once a suitable pilot-machine interface is designed. REFE:RENCES Townsend, J. (committee chairman) (1983) Low-Altitude Wind Shear and Its Hazard to Aviation. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1983. [Z] Fujita, T. T. (1985) The downburst: Microburst and macroburst. Satellite and mesometeorology research project, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, 1985. [3] Wolfson, M. M. (1990) Understanding and Predicting Microbursts. Ph.D. Thesis, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA, Feb. 1990. (41 Bowles, R. L. (1990) Windshear detection and avoidance: Airborne systems survey. 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Guidance, Control, and Llynamics, 15, 1, (Jan.-Feb. 1992), 247-254. Stratton, D. A., and Stengel, R. F. (1990) Stochastic prediction techniques for wind shear hazard assessment. J. Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, L5, 5 . (Sept.-Oct. 1992), 1224-1229. Stratton, D. A., and Stengel, R. E (1991) Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection. IEEE Trans. Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 29, 4, (1993), 1185-1194. Cullen, J. A., and Wolfson, M. M. (1990) Predicting summer microburst hazard from thunderstorm day statistics. Presented at the 16th Conference on Severe Local Storms, American Meteorological Society, Oct. 1990. Hjelmfelt, M. R. (1988) Structure and lifecycle of microburst outflows observed in Colorado. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 27, 8 (Aug. 1988), 900-927. Byers, H. R., and Braham, R. R. (1949) The Thunderstorm. Dept. of Commerce, Washington, DC, 1949. Wolfson, M., et al. (1990) Characteristics of thunderstorm-generated low-altitude wind shear: A survey based on nationwide Doppler weather radar testbed measurements. In Proceedings of the 29rh Conference on Decision and Control, Vol. 2,Honolulu, HI, 1990, pp. 682688. STRATTON & STENGEL: REAL-TIME DECISION AIDING: AIRCRAFI GUIDANCE FOR WIND SHFAR AVOIDANCI I 123 [16] [17] [18] [19] Barab, J. D., Page, R. D., Rosenburg, B. L., Zurinskas, T. E., and Smythe, G. R. (1988) Evaluation of enhancements to the low level windshear alert system (LLWAS) at Stapleton International Airport. DOT/FAA/PS-88/14,Springfield, VA, July 1987-Mar. 1988. Bernella, D. M. (1991) Terminal Doppler weather radar operational test and evaluation Orlando 1990. Lincoln Laboratory project report ATC-179, D O T / F M R - 9 1 D , Apr. 1991. Handelman, D. A. (1989) A rule-based paradigm for intelligent adaptive flight control. Ph.D. dissertation, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, MAE report 1858-T, Apr. 1989. Pearl, J. (1988) Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. San Mateo, C A Morgan Kaufmann, 1988. [20] [21] [221 Anderson, B. D. O., and Moore, J. [I. (1979) Optimal Filtering. EngUewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-€tall, 1979. Stengel, R. E (1994) Optimal Control and Estimation, New York: Dover, 1994. (Originally published as Stochstic Optimal Control: Theory and Application. New York Wiley, 1986.) Oseguera, R. M., and Rowles, R. L. (1988) A simple, analytic 3dimensional downburst model based on boundary layer stagnation flow. NASA TM 100632, Washington, DC, 1988. D. Alexander Stratton received his bachelor’s degree in Aeronautical Engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY,in May 1985. He received his Ph.D. in Oct. 1992 from Princeton University, Princeton, NJ. He is currently employed as an engineer with Parker Hannifin Corporation’s Gull Electronics Division, a manufacturer of avionics and fuel systems. He designs and develops integrated aircraft systems for flight inspection of radio navigation aids. His interests include satellite and inertial navigation systems, aircraft guidance and control, and flight safety. Robert Stengel (M’77-SM’83-F‘93) received the S.B. degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge (1960) and M.S.E., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees from Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (1965, 1966, 1968). He is currently Associate Dean of Ehgineering and Applied Science and Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace: Engineering at Princeton University, where he directs the Topical Program on Robotics and Intelligent Systems and the Laboratory for Control and Automation. He also has served with The Analytic Sciences Corporation, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, USAF, and NASA. He was a principal designer of the Apollo Lunar Module manual control logic, and he contributed to Space Shuttle control design. Dr. Stengel is an Associate Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, an Associate Editor at Large of the IEEE Pansactions on Automatic Control, North American Etlitor of the Cambridge University Press Aerospace Series, and Member of the Program Council for the New Jersey Space Grant Consortium. He wrote the book, Optimal Control and Estimation (Dover, 1994). 124 ICCC TRANSACTIONS ON AEROSPACE AND ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS VOL. 31, NO. 1 JANUARY 1995
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