STEP 6
Carrying a fish to market in Kenya, during the East Africa food crisis.
Step 6 brings together the raw quantitative data and qualitative information
collected during fieldwork in order to construct a concise and coherent description
of the market system. The emphasis is on producing final versions of market maps,
seasonal calendars, and household profiles that will inform the ‘analytical’ steps
that follow.
Before starting Step 6, you will have…
o
o
o
o
prepared preliminary maps of the baseline and emergency-affected
situations;
gathered information about how the market system performed before the
crisis;
explored how the crisis has affected the market system, and how market
actors are coping;
consulted market actors and key informants on possible market-support
actions.
6.
Mapping
the system
Photo credit: Jane Beesley/Oxfam
Mapping the market system
116 THE EMERGENCY MARKET MAPPING AND ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
6.1 Overview of Step 6
Objectives
•
•
•
Produce final versions of market maps, comparing baseline and emergencyaffected situations.
Produce final versions of seasonal calendars and household economic
profiles for target groups.
Write summary explanations of all market-system features that are relevant
to the key analytical questions defined in Step 3.
Activities
•
•
•
•
Sort and bring together information from your quantitative data sheets.
Compile all the qualitative information in interview records and field notes.
Re-draw final versions of both baseline and emergency market-system maps.
Compile final versions of the market system’s seasonal calendar.
Key outputs
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A final, seasonally adjusted, baseline map (or maps) representing the market
system as it was before the onset of the emergency
Data about numbers of market actors, prices, and volumes of production
and trade in the baseline situation (shown either on the market map, or
included in separate tables)
Explanatory text describing the baseline market system’s key features that
are most relevant to the crisis-affected situation
A final, seasonally adjusted, emergency-affected map (or maps), representing
the market system as it is now
Data about numbers of market actors, prices, stocks, and production and
trade volumes in the emergency-affected situation (shown either on the
market map, or in separate tables)
Explanatory text describing the key aspects of the impact of the crisis on
the market system, including major constraints, bottlenecks, and coping
strategies of market actors
A seasonal calendar for the market system
6.2 Baseline market-system map
The first main output from Step 6 is your final version of the baseline market-system
map. Its purpose is to compare the ‘normal’ and ‘crisis-affected’ situations: it shows
the market system as it might have been now, had the crisis not occurred. The final
output will be a refined version of the preliminary baseline market map which you
started in Step 3 and have been revising and developing during the course of the
fieldwork.
STEP 6. MAPPING THE MARKET SYSTEM 117
The mapping process
To develop a final version of baseline market-system map, you will have to pull
together, and represent, information from the many sources used during Steps 1–5,
including background research (especially any previous market profiles or reports);
interviews with key informants who had good sector knowledge, and with marketsystem actors, especially larger traders and businesses who were able to provide
you with retrospective information.
The basic activities of market-system mapping were explained in Step 3:
•
Start by getting a clear picture of the main structure of the market system
(actors, pathways, and linkages), with the position or role of EMMA’s target
groups well defined.
•
Add in the key inputs – providers, services, and infrastructure – especially
those that have been most affected by the crisis. Indicate which actors or
linkages are most dependent on these services.
•
Add in the critical ‘institutional’ issues – again focusing attention on
relevance to the crisis, and opportunities for humanitarian agencies to
influence the situation.
•
Incorporate ‘quantitative’ data – by adding in key numbers (section 6.4) or by
using visual clues in the map (for example, different thicknesses of linkages).
Market maps and calendars tend to start simple but become more complex during
fieldwork, as interviews generate more information and data. By this stage your
understanding of what is relevant and what is not should enable EMMA teams to focus
only on the most relevant features of the map or calendar. You must refine and rework complex diagrams, gradually simplifying them until you have a useful output.
In order to be effective as a communication device, the final market-system
maps must be visually clear and simple, so that the key features stand out for the
report reader and decision maker; and they must be seasonally relevant, showing
the market system at the time of year when the emergency response is needed.
Remember, your main objective is to produce diagrams and an analysis that are
direct and accessible to time-starved managers. This means being highly selective
about the information that you eventually include and present: ruthlessly excluding
superfluous information or data that are not relevant to the crisis situation and the
humanitarian challenges. To achieve this state of ‘optimal ignorance’ (see Box 3.6),
EMMA teams will inevitably end up having to discard some data that they worked
hard to collect.
6.3 Emergency-affected market-system map
The second main output of Step 6 is a final version of the emergency-affected
market-system map. The main purpose of the second map is to highlight how the
6.
Mapping
the system
Keep it simple
118 THE EMERGENCY MARKET MAPPING AND ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
market system’s structure, capacity, and performance have been affected by the
crisis. It is the core illustration, and your other descriptive texts and findings will be
built around it.
A key aspect of mapping is comparison of the crisis-affected and baseline
situations. This makes it easier to understand the current issues, problems, and
opportunities. Marks or flags on the map draw attention to the important changes
caused by the emergency, or arising from the humanitarian response.
The kinds of feature to highlight (with visual flags) on the emergency-affected
map include the following:
•
damage to assets or disruption to the livelihood activities of target households;
•
partial or complete disruption of businesses (traders, retailers) in the supply /
value chain;
•
blockage or partial obstruction of particular linkages or relationships in the
system;
•
break-down or loss of key services or forms of infrastructure;
•
emergence of temporary alternative pathways for items, e.g. via humanitarian
activities;
•
policies, regulations, or social norms that are acting as a constraint on the
market system.
It is a good idea – for visual clarity and to focus readers’ attention – to limit
the number of flags on the map to a maximum of around ten. This means that you
must focus on the priority issues: those that are having the greatest impact on the
target population.
Explanatory text – map features
Maps do not tell the full story on their own. Both the baseline and emergency marketsystem maps should be backed up by short explanatory texts which draw attention
to key features of the system that are most relevant to the crisis-affected situation.
This text will explain features of the system, such as the following:
•
where (location on the map) and how (what activities and roles) different
target groups are involved in the market system;
•
which pathways (or chains) in the system are most important in meeting
their needs;
•
which market actors are the crucial important players in these chains;
•
what forms of infrastructure and types of supporting service are especially
important;
•
any rules, regulations, social norms, or practices (conduct) that are significant
factors affecting the performance of the system, or the access of particular
target groups. This last point includes socially or culturally determined
gender roles.
For every flag on the map, you will need to write a brief narrative text, explaining
the nature of the impact or problem in descriptive terms. Keep your audience of
busy decision makers in mind. Try to keep the text brief and relevant. See Box 6.1.
!
Key infrastructure, inputs
and market-support services
FARM
INPUTS
!
PROVINCIAL
TRADERS
6.
Mapping
the system
DISTRICT
TRADERS
!
!
!
!
HOUSEHOLDS
CONSUMING
OWN PRODUCE
LANDLESS
RURAL
HOUSEHOLDS
URBAN
HOUSEHOLDS
RESTRICTIONS ON
WOMEN’S ACCESS
TO MARKETS
Major disruption
Key issue or
partial disruption
INFORMAL
CREDIT
Bean producers
Target groups
Colour key
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS WITH LAND
WOMEN’S
GARDENS
VILLAGE
TRADERS
URBAN
RETAILERS
LEASING OF
TRUCKS
RURAL ROADS
AND BRIDGES
BUSINESS
LOANS
CASUAL
LABOURERS
COMMERCIAL
FARMERS
IMPORTER /
WHOLESALER
!
SEASONAL
EMPLOYMENT
PATTERNS
GROWING
UNRELIABILITY
OF RAINFALL
CORRUPTION
OF MARKET
OFFICIALS
WEAK FARMER
ORGANISATION
OBSTRUCTIVE
TRADE
LICENCE RULES
POLICY
OBSTACLES TO
FOOD TRADING
WAREHOUSING
STORAGE
FOOD AID
IMPORTS
FROM
DOMINIC. REP.
IMPORTS
FROM U.S.A.
The market chain:
market actors & their linkages
HIGH
IMPORT
TARIFFS
COSTS
The market environment:
institutions, rules,
RISING
norms & trends
FUEL
Box 6.1 Emergency-affected market map – ‘beans’ example from Haiti
STEP 6. MAPPING THE MARKET SYSTEM 119
120 THE EMERGENCY MARKET MAPPING AND ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
6.4 Quantification: putting numbers on the map
EMMA results will be more informative and compelling if you can rally some basic
numbers to support your analysis and recommendations. This section explains how
to make EMMA a quantitative, as well as descriptive, process.
The data that you compile here will be used later – in Step 8 especially. In
particular, they will help you to draw conclusions about the capacity of the market
system to play a role in humanitarian response: for example, by responding to
local procurement activities, or reacting to increases in demand when cash-based
assistance is given to target groups.
Two notes of caution
•
•
It is often difficult and time-consuming to get accurate and reliable data
about baseline market systems in a sudden-onset emergency situation. The
results of quantitative analysis may not always justify the effort, skills, and
time involved.
Unless you have very solid evidence, assume that your data are imprecise
and uncertain (see Box 5.3). If you interviewed only two or three traders,
it would be better to give an approximate estimate (e.g. 100–150 tonnes)
than to record an apparently accurate but actually very uncertain number
(e.g. 137.5 tonnes).
Therefore, in practice, EMMA must compromise by focusing on only a few key
pieces of data. Do not let the collection and analysis of quantitative data lead to
neglect of more useful qualitative information.
The most useful quantitative data for EMMA to focus on are the following:
•
numbers of market actors – at each step in the value / supply chain;
•
prices of items – at key transaction points;
•
volumes (quantities) – of goods or services produced and traded.
STEP 6. MAPPING THE MARKET SYSTEM 121
Box 6.2 Types of useful quantitative data in EMMA
Data
Details
Why data are useful or important
Actor
Number of target households
numbers (differentiating between numbers
of women and men if relevant)
Number of market actors at key
points in the chain
Price
data
To understand scale of activities.
To extrapolate from sample.
To flag up risks of poor conduct
(e.g. cartels).
Prices for target households, and To help to diagnose supply or
at key points along supply / value demand failure.
chain
To help to identify bottlenecks.
Volumes Consumption or production by
To assess availability.
different target groups
To evaluate capacity to respond
(differentiating between women
to procurement needs.
and men if appropriate – e.g. for
production)
Trade volumes in local, provincial,
national markets
It is important to look out for and take note of any significant changes in the numbers
of market actors at key points in the system, especially if these changes point to the
possibility of severe problems such as
•
lack of physical access to the market system for any target groups;
•
excessive concentration of market power in the hands of a few remaining
actors (see ‘competition’ issues below);
•
situations where there is a risk of cartels forming or monopolistic behaviour
(poor conduct).
Disruption to the market system may involve the death or displacement of
market actors and the destruction of their business assets, stocks, and premises. The
number of market actors (including different target-group households), and their
locations, can often be shown directly on the market-system map, as in Box 6.3.
Box 6.3 Showing actor numbers on market maps
VILLAGE RETAILERS
Galleni = 5
Pau = 8
Andola = 3
6.
Mapping
the system
Numbers of market actors
122 THE EMERGENCY MARKET MAPPING AND ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
Using price data
There is, at least in principle, a typical or average ‘market’ price associated with
every transaction link in a supply chain or value chain at any time of year. It is
especially useful to record changes in prices following the onset of an emergency.
Comparison between baseline and crisis-affected prices – provided that they are
seasonally relevant – can be useful for identifying bottlenecks or constraints in the
market system caused by the crisis.
Price data can be shown on the map, as in Box 6.4.
Box 6.4 Showing prices along a market chain
P = 20
Affected
producers
P = 25
Village
traders
P = 45
Small
mills
P = 70
Wholesalers
Urban
consumer
It is also useful to consider the direction and pace of price changes – also known
as price dynamics. When it comes to assessing failures of supply and/or demand (in
Step 8), knowing whether prices are generally rising, falling, or remaining stable is
as important as knowing their relative level compared with the baseline situation.
Comparisons of prices prevailing at different times (i.e. baseline and current
situations) need to take account of any background inflation – that is, general
rises in prices in the national economy that are not related to the impact of the
emergency. If background inflation is a significant factor (greater than 10 per cent
p.a.), you should convert historical baseline prices into equivalent current prices. In
situations of hyper-inflation or great instability of the local currency, it may be better
to convert all prices into US dollars or Euros, using a realistic (informal or blackmarket) exchange rate.
Volumes of production and trade
Even though they are difficult to collect and analyse, data about the quantities, or
volumes, of goods being produced and traded are potentially very valuable, for
these reasons:
•
In supply market systems, they are a guide to the availability of items, and
the capacity of market actors to respond to the local procurement needs of
both agencies and/or the target population.
•
In income market systems, they can indicate the capacity of the market
system to create income for the affected population by purchasing their
produce, or their labour.
•
Changes in volumes of production and trade are also important indicators
of the general nature of the impact of the crisis on the market system (see
the section on supply and demand failure in Step 8).
STEP 6. MAPPING THE MARKET SYSTEM 123
As a minimum, EMMA practitioners need to try to estimate (approximately)
the seasonal production and trade volumes in the ‘local economic area’ where the
affected population is located; and in the wider provincial or national economy
within which the local area is embedded.
How to do it
There are essentially two ways of estimating the total production and trade in a
given economic area (see Box 6.5). You can use whichever is easier, or if possible use
both as a way to cross-check (triangulate) findings.
Method 1 – based on consumption
a.
b.
Estimate total consumption or usage in the economic area (using data
about households).
Add any goods going out (exports) to other economic areas or markets
(using data from traders).
Box 6.5 Estimating volumes from consumption data
Ghazia county has a population of approx 140,000 households.
Normally, in May–July, average household consumption = 2.5 kg lentils per
month.
Estimated baseline consumption = 140,000 x 2.5 kg = 350 tonnes / month
At this time of year, Ghazia normally exports lentils to the capital city. Three
main traders (who control two-thirds of the market) would normally export
approximately 40 tonnes per month.
Estimated baseline trade going out of Ghazia = 40 ÷ 2/3 = 60 tonnes / month
Total production and trade (baseline) = 350 + 60 = 410 tonnes / month
Method 2 – based on production
a.
Estimate total production in the economic area (using data from producers,
government).
b.
Add any goods coming in (imports) from other economic areas or markets
(using data from traders).
It is important not to be intimidated by such calculations, nor to spend too
much time on them. In an emergency situation, and especially with baseline data,
the best you can realistically hope for is a very rough estimate of quantities: just a
‘feel’ for the scale of economic activity.
6.
Mapping
the system
Example of Method 1: consumption plus exports
124 THE EMERGENCY MARKET MAPPING AND ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
Box 6.6 Estimating volumes from production data
Example of Method 2: production plus imports
Kandarpur district typically harvests approximately 12,000 tonnes of wheat in
September /October, for consumption during the winter (six months).
Estimated production = 12,000 ÷ 6 = 2,000 tonnes / month (spread over winter)
During this season, the district also normally imports wheat from the southern
region. The two main wholesalers (who jointly control 80 per cent of this market)
typically bring in approximately 60 tonnes each week.
Estimated trade coming into the district = 60 x 4 ÷ 80% = 300 tonnes / month
Total production and trade (baseline) = 2,000 + 300 = 2,300 tonnes / month
Information about production and trade volumes can be included in the
market-system map in two ways. If you only have very rough estimates, the relative
importance of different linkages or pathways in the system can be illustrated by
using different thicknesses of arrows. Alternatively, numerical estimates at key points
in the system can be overlaid on the map, as in Box 6.8.
6.5 Availability (stocks and lead times)
As well as getting a sense of production and trade volumes in supply market systems,
it will be very useful (in Step 9) to have information about availability. These data
include the following:
•
the stocks held by different types of market actor along a supply chain, and
•
the lead-times (between order and delivery) expected at each link in the chain.
This information will come from the interviews with market actors (traders,
retailers etc.). When investigating lead-times, treat people’s responses cautiously.
Traders may exaggerate how quickly they can obtain supplies, in order to impress
you, or because they are unaware of bottlenecks elsewhere. Always check with other
market actors in the chain.
Information about ‘availability’ can be usefully summarized in a table like Box 6.7.
Box 6.7 Analysis of availability along a supply chain
Stocks
Growers
N: 70–100
1,500 tonnes
as crops
in fields
Lead-times
Traders
N: 10–15
50 tonnes
in transit
six weeks
(harvest
in June)
Millers
N: 6
150 tonnes
in storage
at mills
one week
(transport)
Retailers
N: 100–150
30 tonnes
in stock in
shops
two weeks
(milling,
bagging)
Consumers
N: ~ 20,000
100 tonnes
in household
larders
3 days
(home stocks)
IMPORTER /
WHOLESALER
N=3
V: 900
COMMERCIAL
FARMERS
N = 2,000 ?
V: 1,000–2,000
DISTRICT
TRADERS
N = 20
6.
Mapping
the system
Other Regions
V: 6,000–7,000
V: 1,600
V: 700
HOUSEHOLDS
CONSUMING
OWN PRODUCE
LANDLESS
RURAL
HOUSEHOLDS
N = 200,000
N = Number of actors / households
V = Volume in metric tonnes per month
RURAL HOUSEHOLDS WITH LAND
N = 70,000
WOMEN’S
GARDENS
V: 1500
URBAN
HOUSEHOLDS
N = 50,000
Hurricane-affected
communes
V: 500
VILLAGE
TRADERS
N ~ 200
URBAN
RETAILERS
N > 50
Gonaives and Jacmel
regions
V: 2,000
V: 500
REGIONAL
TRADERS
N=8
Capital
Port au Prince
V: 1,500–2,000 ?
INTERNATIONAL
FOOD AID
IMPORTS
FROM
DOM. REPB.
IMPORTS
FROM U.S.A.
V: 4,000
The market chain:
market actors & their linkages
Box 6.8 Showing data about production and trade volumes on market maps – ‘beans’ example from Haiti
STEP 6. MAPPING THE MARKET SYSTEM 125
126 THE EMERGENCY MARKET MAPPING AND ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
6.6 Seasonal calendar for a market system
Many market systems have strong seasonal variations in the patterns of production,
trade, and prices. These patterns may reveal themselves through seasonal price
fluctuations for inputs and outputs. Or they may involve major seasonal shifts of
activity as people move, for example, between farming and wage employment.
This is most obvious in agricultural market systems – with shifts in demand for
labour for ploughing, weeding, harvesting; and a surge in the supply of produce
after harvesting. However, seasonal patterns may also feature in shelter-related
markets, and in off-farm activities that are affected by weather or road access, for
example. There is often a strong gender-related dimension to these patterns, as the
roles and responsibilities of women and men differ. These need to be understood,
since emergencies typically have different impacts on women’s and men’s time.
It is essential that EMMA users are able to distinguish ‘normal’ seasonal
fluctuations in prices and trade volumes from the disruptions created by an
emergency situation. Otherwise, your diagnosis of market-system problems and
proposed solutions will be flawed. The baseline market map should represent a
‘seasonally relevant’ picture.
It is a good idea, therefore, to construct a simple seasonal calendar for each
market system analysed, to capture the ‘normal’ seasonal patterns of price and
trade. This can also be used to describe other important features of the system
which may be relevant to the humanitarian response.
Box 6.9 Seasonal calendar for a market system – example
Market system
(e.g. Beans)
S
O
N
Volume of trade
J
Low
$
Input purchases
F
M
A
High
Peak $
Prices at market
Road conditions
D
M
J
J
Low
Low $
$
High
High
Low $
Floods
Risk of crop pests
A
High
Checklist for Step 6
o
Baseline and emergency-affected market maps finalized
o
Appropriate details quantified: actor numbers, prices, and availability
o
Key features of the system flagged up and described
o
Seasonal calendar finalized