Ecology, 93(12), 2012, pp. 2674–2682 Ó 2012 by the Ecological Society of America Predicting invertebrate herbivory from plant traits: evidence from 51 grassland species in experimental monocultures JESSY LORANGER,1,2,4 SEBASTIAN T. MEYER,1,5 BILL SHIPLEY,2 JENS KATTGE,3 HANNAH LORANGER,1,6 CHRISTIANE ROSCHER,3,7 AND WOLFGANG W. WEISSER1,5 1 2 Institute of Ecology, Friedrich Schiller University of Jena, Dornburger Straße 159, 07749 Jena, Germany De´partement de Biologie and Centre des Études de la Forêt, Universite´ de Sherbrooke, 2500, Boulevard de l’Universite´, Sherbrooke, Quebec J1K 2R1 Canada 3 Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll Straße 10, 07745 Jena, Germany Abstract. Invertebrate herbivores can impact plant performance and plant communities. Conversely, plants can affect the ability of herbivores to find, choose, and consume them through their functional traits. While single plant traits have been related to rates of herbivory, most often involving single herbivore–plant pairs, much less is known about which suite of plant traits is important for determining herbivory for a pool of plant species interacting with a natural herbivore community. In this study we measured aboveground herbivore damage on 51 herbaceous species growing in monocultures of a grassland biodiversity experiment and collected 42 different plant traits representing four trait groups: physiological, morphological, phenological, and herbivore related. Using the method of random forests and multiple regression, we identified seven traits that are important predictors of herbivore damage (leaf nitrogen and lignin concentration, number of coleopteran and hemipteran herbivores potentially feeding on the plants, leaf life span, stem growth form, and root architecture); leaf nitrogen and lignin concentration were the two most important predictors. The final model accounted for 63% of the variation in herbivore damage. Traits from all four trait groups were selected, showing that a variety of plant characteristics can be statistically important when assessing folivory, including root traits. Our results emphasize that it is necessary to use a multivariate approach for identifying traits affecting complex ecological processes such as herbivory. Key words: herbivore-related traits; invertebrate herbivory; Jena Experiment, Thuringia, Germany; modeling; monoculture; morphology; phenology; physiology; plant trait; prediction. INTRODUCTION Herbivory is a major selective pressure affecting plant physiology and plant fitness (Karban and Strauss 1993, Hulme 1996a, Bigger and Marvier 1998), plant community composition and succession (Brown 1985, Gibson et al. 1987, Brown and Gange 1992, Hulme 1996b, del-Val and Crawley 2004), and plant evolution (Holeski et al. 2010 and references therein). Since the capacity of plants to resist and/or tolerate herbivory is mediated by their Manuscript received 25 February 2012; revised 18 June 2012; accepted 19 June 2012. Corresponding Editor: B. D. Inouye. 4 Present address: Département de Biologie and Centre des Études de la Forêt, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500, Boulevard de l’Université, Sherbrooke, Quebec J1K 2R1 Canada. E-mail: [email protected] 5 Present address: Department of Ecology and Ecosystemmanagement, Technische Universität München, Hans-Carlvon-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85350 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany. 6 Present address: Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Oldenburg, Functional Ecology of Plants, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany. 7 Present address: UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Straße 4, 06120 Halle, Germany. functional characteristics (i.e., traits sensu Violle et al. 2007), plant species differing in their traits can show large differences in rates of herbivory. Plants may alter herbivory through traits that affect an herbivore’s ability to find, choose, or consume a plant. The traits determining the susceptibility of a particular plant to a particular herbivore, and hence to rates of herbivory, are likely to differ among different plant–herbivore interactions (Tanentzap et al. 2011). On the other hand, there is a long history of research aimed at identifying plant traits that generally structure patterns of insect herbivory observed in the field (Pérez-Harguindeguy et al. 2003 and references therein). However, most of this research has focused on only one or few plant traits or, when several traits were included in the analysis, the focus was on pairwise correlations between herbivory and single traits. This is potentially problematic because plant traits often display complicated patterns of multivariate correlation that potentially mask the functional links underlying observed correlations. Studies using a multivariate approach to quantitatively analyze variation in herbivory rates have identified three different groups of trait affecting levels of herbivory: physiological (Coley 1983, Johnson et al. 2674 December 2012 PREDICTING HERBIVORY FROM PLANT TRAITS 2009, Kurokawa et al. 2010), morphological (Coley 1983, Kurokawa et al. 2010), and phenological (Johnson et al. 2009). For example, physiological traits, such as concentrations of nitrogen and secondary compounds, impact the nutritional quality of plants. Morphological traits such as height and growth form influence the accessibility of plants and the ease with which herbivores can locate them. Phenological traits, such as the growth period, determine the availability of plants in a seasonal context. In addition to these classical traits, other traits can be defined. For example, the number of species from a particular herbivore group that can potentially feed on a plant species, which is an indirect measure of herbivore pressure on the plant, may include information not contained in the three other groups of traits. Several studies have identified single traits such as leaf toughness, foliar C:N ratios, or nitrogen concentration that correlate with levels of herbivory (Pérez-Harguindeguy et al. 2003, Boege 2005, Peeters et al. 2007, Karley et al. 2008, Kurokawa et al. 2010). Multivariate studies linking herbivory to plant traits have so far only used subsets of the groups of traits in their analysis, but it is likely that they all act simultaneously to affect herbivory in a plant community (Johnson et al. 2009, de Bello et al. 2010). Studies that combine several groups of plant traits and assess their predictive power of explaining herbivory for a large number of species are missing. Thus, it remains unclear which combination of plant traits is of importance in modulating plant susceptibility to herbivory, especially when comparing several plant species (Agrawal 2011). The goals of the current study were (1) to determine the correlation structure between a large number of traits for a large pool of co-occurring herbaceous species and (2) to identify the suite of traits that best predicts invertebrate herbivory across monocultures of different grassland plant species. Working with monocultures of a range of species excludes the effects of complex interactions that can arise when several plant species co-occur (the subject of another study), but keeps the generality of a multispecies approach by identifying how variation in trait values across plant species affects susceptibility to herbivores. METHODS Study site This study was conducted as part of the Jena Experiment, a grassland biodiversity experiment (Roscher et al. 2004). The field site has a Eutric Fluvisol (FAO/UNESCO 1997) and is located on the floodplain of the Saale River (50855 0 N, 11835 0 E, altitude 130 m) at the northern edge of Jena (Thuringia, Germany). Established in 2002, the experiment has a 60-species pool (Appendix A) consisting of herbaceous plants commonly occurring in seminatural, mesophilic grasslands of the region (Molinio-Arrhenatheretea meadows, Arrhenatherion community; Ellenberg 1996). In addition to 80 main plots along a gradient in plant species 2675 richness, there is one monoculture plot of 1 m2 for each plant species; only the monoculture plots were used in this study. All plots are mown twice a year and weeded regularly (twice or thrice a year), keeping only the target species of each plot. Herbivory and biomass measurements In May and August 2010, plant material was sampled from the species’ monocultures for herbivory measurements. Within the 1-m2 area of each monoculture plot, a single whole individual, or all the rosette-/stolon-born leaves on one spot, was cut 3 cm aboveground every 10 cm along a side-to-side transect. Additional transects were added if fewer than 30 leaves were sampled in the first transect. The plant material was stored in a cooler in plastic bags with humid tissue and directly brought to the laboratory after sampling, where 30 leaves per sample were randomly selected (except for Ranunculus repens in May, when 22 leaves were sampled). Invertebrate standing leaf herbivore damage was then measured on each selected leaf as the proportion of consumed leaf area (damaged leaf area/original undamaged leaf area). Damage area was estimated by visual comparison to a template card with a range of shapes of known area. Four types of herbivory (i.e., chewing, rasping, sucking, and mining) were separately estimated for each leaf. The leaf was then measured using a LI-3000C area meter (LI-COR Biosciences, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA). To calculate the original undamaged leaf areas, the estimated chewed area was added to the measured remaining area of each leaf. Due to lack of plant material, herbivory measurements were not possible for eight species. Also, herbivore damage of Bromus hordeaceus was exceptionally high in August 2010 (at least 10 times higher than in May 2010 and during a repeated measurement in May and August 2011). As we could not explain this extremely high value, this species was excluded from the analyses. Thus, the final data set includes 51 of the complete 60 plant species pool of the Jena Experiment (see Appendix A for species names and inclusion status). The four separately estimated herbivore damage types were summed for each leaf and averaged for each species over the two seasons to give 51 values of species-specific standing herbivore damage. Prior to sampling for herbivory measurements, the biomass inside a 20 3 50 cm frame was cut 3 cm aboveground in each monoculture, in both seasons. Weeds were removed and the target species biomass was oven dried (708C for 48 h) and weighted. This estimate of biomass was used as a covariate in the analyses. Plant traits Trait data extracted from published literature and databases.—Information on 84 traits was extracted from the literature (a total of 148 sources; see Appendix B), including published (Roscher et al. 2004, 2011a, b, Gubsch et al. 2011) and unpublished trait data collected 2676 JESSY LORANGER ET AL. in the Jena Experiment and international databases on plant functional traits, i.e., TRY (Kattge et al. 2011), LEDA (Kleyer et al. 2008), and Biolflor (Klotz et al. 2002). The data extracted from the TRY database include several different sources listed in Appendix B with their associated traits. Trait measurements in the Jena Experiment.—Data on specific leaf area (SLA), carbon and nitrogen tissue concentration, and plant height were measured in the monocultures of the Jena Experiment as follows: bulk samples of fully expanded sun leaves (5–20 leaves dependent on leaf size and number) were collected at estimated peak biomass shortly before mowing in late May and August. Samples from two replicate monoculture plots per species were taken from 2003 to 2005, and one monoculture plot per species was sampled in May 2007. After measuring leaf area (including rachis and petioles of compound leaves) with a leaf area meter (LI3100 area meter; LI-COR, Lincoln, USA) samples were dried to a constant mass at 708C (48 h). SLA was calculated as the ratio of total projected leaf area divided by total leaf dry mass per sample (mm2 of leaf/mg of leaf ). Dry leaf material was ground to a fine powder with a ball mill and ;10–20 mg were analyzed for leaf carbon and nitrogen concentration with an elemental analyzer (Vario EL Element Analyzer, Hanau, Germany). Data of 13 grass species and 12 legume species were collected in 2006 according to the procedures described in Gubsch et al. (2011) and Roscher et al. (2011a). The same sampling protocol was used for measurements on 28 non-legume herb species in 2006 and the remaining species in 2008 or 2009. In spring and summer 2003 and 2004, mean vegetative and total (flowering) plant height were also measured in monocultures. Leaf lignin, cellulose, hemicellulose, and watersoluble matter concentration were measured following a sequential extraction analysis (Vansoest et al. 1991) of neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), and acid detergent lignin (ADL). Leaf samples were collected between May and October 2010. As only 1 g of dry material was necessary, the number of leaves per species varied (at least 10 leaves per species in total, from at least five different individuals; for most species many more leaves). Subsamples were mixed and ground to 1 mm particle size to obtain an average value of fiber concentration per species over the growing season. For the NDF and ADF analyses, an ANKOM 200 fiber analyzer (ANKOM200, 65 rpm agitation; ANKOM Technology, Macedon, New York, USA) was used, and the ADL analysis was done in beakers with 72% sulfuric acid. The samples were dried and weighed between each analysis to calculate the different fiber fractions. A complete list of method procedures is given by ANKOM technology (ANKOM Technology 2011a, b, c). The final data set, combining the information from the literature and measurements, contained 105 traits representing four main trait groups: physiological, Ecology, Vol. 93, No. 12 morphological, phenological, and herbivore related. See Appendix B for a detailed description of all traits and associated references. Statistical analyses Data preparation.—In spite of best efforts to obtain trait values for each plant species, there were between one and 15 missing values for six of the traits (Appendix C). Missing values of the traits stem growth form, seed shedding height, beginning of seed shedding, and period of seed shedding were imputed from reference traits or reference species. Missing values of the traits leaf phosphorus concentration and relative growth rate were imputed via a multiple imputations method using the function and package ‘‘mi’’ in R (Su et al. [2011]; this and all subsequent statistical analyses were done using the R statistical software version 2.10.0 [R Development Core Team 2009]). Appendix C gives a detailed explanation of the traits or species used as reference for every imputed value. Finally, several traits and the standing herbivore damage were loge-transformed to better approximate normality (indicated in Appendix B). When a given trait was available from different sources or for different years, the values were averaged in order to be as independent of individual measurements as possible. Highly correlated traits (r . 0.75) were either averaged (when having the same units, e.g., different measures of plant height) to give a more general new trait, or one (or more) of the correlated traits were excluded (see Appendix B and the supplement for more details). The number of aphid herbivores was separated from the total number of hemipteran herbivores, because aphid damage is less likely to be detected than that of larger hemipterans. Some traits were combined even without being correlated, e.g., the numbers of different secondary metabolites in several similar groups were summed to form larger groups (see Appendix B for details). Monophagous, oligophagous, and polyphagous herbivore classes, even when not correlated, were also combined to give the total number of potential herbivores for each group of herbivores. This is because (1) information on the specificity of herbivores was often unavailable and (2) there was not enough information when all classes were analyzed separately. The resulting final data set for analysis included 42 plant traits (Appendix B). Data analyses.—The 42 traits were checked for phylogenetic signals using the K statistic of Blomberg et al. (2003) calculated by the ‘‘phylosignal’’ function of the ‘‘picante’’ package in R (Kembel et al. 2010) and based on a phylogeny of the 60 species pool of the Jena Experiment (T. Jenkins, personal communication). As none of the traits were clustered, a correction of trait values for phylogenetic signals was not considered to be necessary (Carvalho et al. 2006). The random forest method was used employing the ‘‘RF’’ function of the ‘‘randomForest’’ package in R (Liaw and Wiener 2002) to determine traits with which December 2012 PREDICTING HERBIVORY FROM PLANT TRAITS the 51 loge-transformed values of herbivore damage in monocultures were correlated. This method determines the most important factors that predict a response variable among a large number of different factors by calculating importance scores for each factor (Breiman 2001, Prasad et al. 2006). The method will work even for highly correlated factors, assigning similar importance scores to each. The identified traits were then used as predictor variables in a multiple regression on herbivore damage with plant biomass as a covariable. The resulting model was simplified by a backward stepwise procedure until all remaining traits in the regression were significant (P , 0.05), resulting in an equation of linear combinations of traits predicting degrees of herbivore damage: Predicted damage ¼ b0 þ b1 t1 þ b2 t2 þ . . . þ bi ti ð1Þ where b0 is the intercept of the model, and bi and ti are the partial slope and the species-specific trait values of the predictive trait ith, respectively. As trait values were not standardized, the relative importance of the partial slopes, or magnitude of effect, was calculated by multiplying each partial slope by the range (maximum–minimum) of its associated trait. The predictive potential of the resulting equation was cross-validated as follows: a thousand subsets of 38 species (75% of the total) were randomly chosen to calculate the intercept and the partial slopes of the final multiple regression. Using those parameters in Eq. 1, the predicted values of herbivory were calculated for the remaining 13 species (25%) of each subset. The observed damage values for those 13 species were then regressed against their respective predicted values obtained from the crossvalidation. The mean value of the residual standard errors of those 1000 regressions (RSE*) was compared to the residual standard error of the regression using the full data set (RSE): Errorð%Þ ¼ ðRSE RSEÞ 3 100: RSE ð2Þ This equation calculates the percentage increase in the error of prediction (Error) between the full model error and the mean error from the 1000 cross-validations (Efron and Tibshirani 1993). RESULTS Correlation and exclusion of traits The original data set of 105 traits was reduced to 42 traits. Grazing tolerance was highly correlated with trampling tolerance (r ¼ 0.95) and moderately correlated with mowing tolerance (r ¼ 0.61). As grazing tolerance is likely to be the most relevant variable predicting herbivore damage, the two others were excluded. Leaf carbon and nitrogen concentration were correlated with shoot carbon and nitrogen concentration, respectively (r¼0.75, r¼0.84). As the leaf herbivore damage was the variable of interest in this study, shoot carbon and nitrogen concentrations were 2677 discarded. Leaf hemicellulose and cellulose concentrations were also correlated (r¼0.79), so they were summed to give a new variable: leaf primary fiber concentration. This variable was, in turn, highly correlated (r¼0.88) with leaf water-soluble matter concentration, which was excluded as it can include both deterrent and attractive compounds for herbivores (see Appendix B). The 11 different measures of plant height were combined to give three plant height traits: height spring, height summer, and height (Appendix B). All original plant height measures were correlated (r . 0.75) to at least one of these three variables. Height spring (summer) is the average of the different heights measured in spring (summer) in the Jena Experiment (see Appendix B). Height represents a general averaged value of several different height measurements from the TRY database and was highly correlated (r . 0.75) to all other excluded height traits (see Appendix B). Interestingly, leaf lignin concentration was moderately positively and negatively correlated to leaf nitrogen and primary fiber concentrations, respectively (r ¼ 0.59, r ¼ 0.62). It was also moderately positively correlated to the number of coleopteran herbivores potentially feeding on the plants (r ¼ 0.66) and negatively correlated to stem growth form (r ¼0.59). Predicting herbivore damage The random forest method selected 13 traits as being important to predict loge-transformed values of herbivore damage (Table 1), whereas the decrease in importance score between each of the other ‘‘less’’ important traits was very small (see Appendix D for details). In a multiple regression, these 13 traits were further reduced to seven traits significantly predicting herbivore damage using a backward stepwise selection. The resulting highly significant model explained 63% of the variation in loge-transformed damage values (Table 1). Fig. 1 shows the correlation between observed and predicted values of damage from the multiple regression. Herbivore damage increased with increasing leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf life span (1, deciduous; 2, partly deciduous; 3, evergreen), the number of coleopteran herbivores potentially feeding on the plants, and with root architecture score (1, long-living primary root system; 2, secondary fibrous roots in addition to the primary root system; 3, short-living primary root system, extensive secondary root system). Root architecture is regarded here as an ordered variable that increases with increasing importance and size of the secondary root system and with decreasing life span and size of the primary root system. Herbivore damage decreased with increasing values of stem growth form ( percentage of erection of the stem), leaf lignin concentration, and the number of hemipteran herbivores potentially feeding on the plants. Based on their magnitude scores (Table 1), the physiological traits (leaf nitrogen and lignin concentrations) were the most important predictors for herbivore damage, followed by the traits related to the herbivore community (coleopteran and hemipteran herbivores), the life-history 2678 JESSY LORANGER ET AL. Ecology, Vol. 93, No. 12 TABLE 1. Plant functional traits selected by a random forest (RF) approach to be of importance in predicting leaf standing herbivore damage in 51 different species monocultures at the field site of the Jena Experiment (Thuringia, Germany). Order Variable Importance Removal RF value P Intercept Biomass Leaf nitrogen concentration Coleopteran herbivores Leaf lignin concentration Stem growth form Root architecture Orthopteran herbivores Leaf life span Leaf distribution Aphid herbivores Leaf phosphorus concentration N-containing compounds Leaf dry matter content Hemipteran herbivores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 e g c d b f a 110.6 50.9 48.2 43.6 34.9 25.1 19.5 16.6 12.6 11.7 11.6 11.6 9.4 ,0.001 0.246 ,0.001 ,0.001 0.003 0.039 0.032 0.134 ,0.001 0.765 0.393 0.819 0.196 0.865 0.003 Regression coefficient 10.649 6 1.749 6 0.547 6 0.073 6 0.007 6 0.268 6 0.370 6 0.406 6 1.520 0.392 0.118 0.023 0.003 0.121 0.092 0.127 Magnitude 1.75 1.48 1.56 0.70 0.54 0.74 0.79 Notes: Order of importance (1–13) is the ordered importance of traits as given by the RF. Order of removal (shown with letters a–g) is the order in which the traits were removed in the backward stepwise selection. Ellipses in this column show traits that remained in the final model after the stepwise backward selection. RF value is the importance score given by the RF for each trait. P values are for the intercept and the partial slopes of the traits in the multiple regression of loge-transformed specific herbivore damage against each trait at the time it was removed by backward stepwise selection (P . 0.05) or in the final model (P , 0.05). Regression coefficient shows the intercept and partial slopes of the remaining traits in the final model, with standard error (in the final model, R 2 ¼ 0.631 and P , 0.001). Magnitude is the magnitude of the maximal effect of an explanatory variable on the response variable calculated as the absolute value of the partial slope multiplied by the range (maximum–minimum) of the explanatory variable. Ellipses indicate that data were not applicable in those columns. The biomass measured in the monocultures was used as a covariable in the model. It was never significant together with other variables and was consequently removed from the final model. trait (leaf life span), and finally, the morphological traits (stem growth form and root architecture). The cross-validation results showed that the model is robust and consistent (RSE ¼ 0.498, RSE* 6 SD ¼ 0.515 6 0.112). The mean residual standard errors (RSE*, over 1000 regressions) were only 3.43% higher when fitting was restricted to 25% of the species not used to calculate the partial slopes, compared to the residual standard errors when fitting all species in the original regression (RSE). Moreover, the mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted damage values for those 1000 regressions was only 10% lower than the correlation coefficient for the whole model. Thus, the presence of particular species has little impact on the goodness of fit of the model. selected traits are consistently good predictors of herbivore damage among different subsets of the 51 species. Our results are similar to those from two other studies that quantitatively linked invertebrate herbivory to plant traits in a large interspecific context using multiple DISCUSSION Standing invertebrate herbivore leaf damage in monocultures of 51 herbaceous species was successfully predicted from plant traits, explaining 63% of the variation in herbivore damage. The seven traits selected as predictors come from all four trait groups included in the study: physiological, morphological, phenological, and herbivore related. To our knowledge, this study is the first where several trait groups have been combined in a predictive model for general invertebrate herbivory on herbaceous species. The resulting model accounted for a surprisingly high proportion of the total variance in herbivore damage and was strongly supported by crossvalidation results that showed that the influence of any single plant species on the model was low and that the FIG. 1. Correlation (r ¼ 0.83, P , 0.001) between leaf herbivore damage in monocultures (HD) measured as the percentage of the damaged leaf area at the field site of the Jena Experiment (Thuringia, Germany) and the damage predicted by a model based on seven traits. The axes are log-scaled. For the model see Table 1. December 2012 PREDICTING HERBIVORY FROM PLANT TRAITS regression despite the fact that both Coley (1983) and Kurokawa et al. (2010) addressed tropical tree species, did not use monocultures, and focused on only two trait groups (physiological and morphological). Although we used more plant and herbivore species, our model explained more variation in herbivore damage than Kurokawa et al.’s (2010), which was based on four traits (specific leaf area, leaf C:P, N:P, and total phenolics) and explained 48% of the variation in leaf consumption by one herbivore on 41 woody species. The model of Coley (Coley 1983) explained 70% of the variation in natural invertebrate herbivory on mature leaves of 46 tree species. Note, however, that 16 traits were included in Coley’s multiple regression, even though most of them were not significant, which yields a higher R 2 value than if only significant traits had been kept in the model. Thus, with less than a half of the traits used in Coley’s study, we could account for a similar fraction of the variation in herbivore damage. Moreover, while their final model included many more traits, we both identified leaf nitrogen and lignin concentrations as being the two most important predictors of herbivore damage, although leaf lignin concentration was an important and significant predictor only in a multivariate context including at least three other variables. Physiological traits As hypothesized by Pérez-Harguindeguy et al. (2003), and in line with Coley (1983)’s findings, leaf nitrogen and lignin concentrations had the largest effect on the herbivore damage since leaf consumption should be directly linked to leaf nutritional quality. Invertebrate herbivores have been shown to feed preferentially on plant tissue with higher nitrogen concentrations since they are nitrogen limited because of the much lower C:N ratio in animal compared to plant tissue (Elser et al. 2000). Correlations between herbivory and leaf nitrogen concentration have also been found in many other invertebrate herbivory-related studies (Karley et al. 2008, Cronin et al. 2010, Kurokawa et al. 2010). While the herbivore damage increased with higher leaf nitrogen concentration, it decreased with leaf lignin concentration, which is known to be a compound decreasing herbivore performance (Wainhouse et al. 1990). While correlations between herbivory and lignin concentration have been documented before (Coley 1983, Wainhouse et al. 1990, Poorter et al. 2004), results have not been consistent (Coley 1983, Kurokawa and Nakashizuka 2008, Kurokawa et al. 2010). Coley (1983) suggested that leaf toughness, which is related to leaf fiber and lignin concentration, could be a better predictor of herbivory, which is in line with findings of Pérez-Harguindeguy et al. (2003). While precise information on leaf toughness was unavailable for the species in this study, leaf lignin concentration had a consistent impact on the observed damage. This is of interest as most previous studies documenting the importance of lignin have worked with woody plant species from tropical rainforests (Coley 2679 1983, Poorter et al. 2004, Kurokawa and Nakashizuka 2008, Kurokawa et al. 2010). We found that leaf lignin concentration may have an underestimated role for the interactions between invertebrate herbivores and herbaceous vegetation in temperate grasslands. Morphological traits The observed degree of herbivore damage was negatively correlated with values of stem growth form (percentage of erection of the stem) suggesting that more prostrate species are more fed upon. Plant height could represent a physical barrier to some invertebrate herbivores (Pérez-Harguindeguy et al. 2003). Because only invertebrate herbivore damage was measured, including damage from mollusks and other flightless herbivores, prostrate or rosette-shaped plant species are likely to be generally more easily grazed on than erect species. We know much less about plant–herbivore interactions below ground than above ground, and even less about feedbacks between the two compartments. While the current study demonstrates a significant positive correlation between observed aboveground herbivore damage and the plant’s root architecture, the underlying link is somewhat difficult to interpret. On the one hand, different root systems have different resource acquisition potentials (Fitter et al. 1991, Doussan et al. 2003), which impacts aboveground leaf quality with obvious implications for herbivores. On the other hand, belowground herbivore preferences might depend on root architecture, and their feeding can induce physiological effects in the plants which can enhance (Newingham et al. 2007) or reduce (Kaplan et al. 2011 and references therein) aboveground herbivory. In addition, variation in root architecture could correlate with some other aboveground trait that is important for invertebrate herbivores, but that was not included in this study. Regardless of the mechanisms, the fact that root architecture was selected in our model highlights the importance of considering characteristics of the whole plant even when assessing only folivory. Phenological traits In the model, the degree of herbivore damage was positively related to leaf life span (1, deciduous, 2, semideciduous, 3, evergreen). The positive partial regression coefficient associated with this variable reflects the effect of these different types of leaf life spans after controlling for the other variables in the model, including leaf nitrogen and lignin concentrations. Thus, for leaves with the same concentrations of nitrogen and lignin, those whose leaves typically persist longer on the plant were more susceptible to herbivore damage. This is opposite to published results from trees (Coley et al. 1985, Coley 1988). However, in contrast to trees in these studies, for the herbaceous vegetation in the present study, leaf life span is not a measure of the actual life spans for individual leaves; rather it is a measure of potential leaf availability for herbivores. Since the field site is mown 2680 JESSY LORANGER ET AL. twice a year and all leaves had been produced in the periods between harvests, the effect of leaf life span does not simply reflect an accumulation of herbivory over different periods. Rather, herbivores (especially specialists) might prefer host plants that, when controlling for other important variables such as nitrogen and lignin concentrations, provide food (leaves) for the longest period by being available earlier in spring or providing opportunities to overwinter. Herbivore-related traits The number of coleopteran herbivores known to feed on a given plant species was selected as an important factor positively correlated to values of herbivore damage. In line with that importance, coleopterans were the most numerous herbivore group found on the field site in 2010, followed by hemipterans (A. Ebeling, personal communication). This agrees with herbivorous coleopterans playing a major role in grasslands as important invertebrate herbivores. A surprising result, at first glance, is the negative correlation between herbivore damage and the species richness of potential hemipteran herbivores. Generally, since damage by sap-sucking insects is difficult to quantify on the basis of damaged or removed leaf area (as was done in this study), this causes an underestimate of their direct impacts. If there are indirect effects between sap-sucking herbivores and herbivores that cause more visible damage (e.g., by competition), then these interactions could explain the lower damage with higher potential (and likely realized) hemipteran infestation. Such competitive effects have been shown for two sap-sucking herbivore species (Inbar et al. 1995), and similar competitive effects might extend to other herbivore guilds as Kaplan and Denno (2007) found in their review that the strength of competition between invertebrate herbivores does not change significantly between intra- and inter-guild interactions. We found that plant species with high levels of sap-sucking damage had low levels of other types of damage, which might indicate competitive interactions, although contrasting correlations with other plant traits cannot be excluded. Secondary metabolites Surprisingly, only leaf lignin concentration was selected in the model as a chemical herbivore deterrent of importance, and there is no correlation with the secondary metabolites we investigated. Many previous studies have emphasized the importance of at least one group of secondary metabolites in modulating herbivory (Carroll and Hoffman 1980, Bernays and Chapman 1994, Schoonhoven et al. 2005, Johnson et al. 2009). In contrast to the current study, most of these reports have focused on specific interactions between single plant and herbivore species or specific compounds, whereas interactions involving many herbivore and plant species have rarely been addressed. The minor importance of secondary compounds in our model is confirmed by a Ecology, Vol. 93, No. 12 recent meta-analysis aiming to determine what traits generally influence plant susceptibility to herbivores. Carmona et al. (2011) and Schuldt et al. (2012) found no secondary metabolites that were correlated to susceptibility; instead, life-history, morphological, and geographical traits were important. A possible reason is that particular compounds within a group of secondary compounds (e.g., phenolics, terpenoids) can have a range of functions other than anti-herbivory defenses (Bernays and Chapman 1994). Secondary compounds might even have at the same time both stimulating and inhibiting effects depending on the herbivore species (Carroll and Hoffman 1980). Consequently, the effect of a particular secondary compound is often specific to a particular herbivore species or group of species, making such metabolites poor predictors of herbivory by the entire community. Also, because of the ‘‘specific’’ function of several secondary metabolites, using concentrations of particular compounds as predictors rather than the number of different compounds might increase their predictive power for herbivory patterns. Patterns of correlation It is interesting to note the positive correlations among leaf lignin concentration, leaf nitrogen concentration, and coleopteran herbivores, the three most important predictors of our final model. The negative effect of leaf lignin concentration on herbivore damage disappears when both other variables are excluded, and is not significant when only one of them is included in the model. Thus, leaf lignin concentration seems to negatively affect herbivores for leaves with the same nitrogen concentration, and it seems to have a particularly important effect on coleopteran herbivores (which are mostly chewers), but a more detailed analysis of this interaction is needed. Consequently, pre-selecting a few traits believed to be important runs the risk of drawing false conclusions due to unknown interactive effects between traits, and working with as many traits as possible increases the reliability of the identified relations between plant traits and herbivore damage. CONCLUSION Beginning with 105 traits, a final set of seven traits, belonging to all trait groups addressed in this study, predicted leaf standing herbivore damage in monocultures. This confirmed our expectations that (1) herbivore damage can be predicted from a relatively small number of plant traits and (2) one trait group is not sufficient to capture the major sources of variation in degree of herbivore damage. Multiple aspects of plants are important in controlling herbivory. It is important to remember that our results are based on monocultures. In natural plant communities, in which different plant species grow together in close proximity, the presence of species with less desirable traits might either reduce or enhance herbivory on species possessing more desirable traits, beyond the levels expected in plant monocultures. December 2012 PREDICTING HERBIVORY FROM PLANT TRAITS If interactions in multispecies communities are not important, then it would be possible to extrapolate our results to multispecies communities simply by weighting the expected herbivore damage of each species by its relative abundance in the community. Testing whether the relations expressed in monocultures in this study remain consistent in more complex plant communities is an important next step toward understanding how plants and invertebrate herbivores impact each other. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Anne Ebeling, the gardeners, and technical staff who have worked on the Jena Experiment, for maintaining the site. The Jena Experiment was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 1451). The study was also supported by the TRY initiative on plant traits, and we thank all the contributors who have provided trait data via the TRY database. TRY is supported by DIVERSITAS, IGBP, the Global Land Project, the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through its program QUEST (Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System), the French Foundation for Biodiversity Research (FRB), and GIS ‘‘Climat, Environnement et Société’’ France. We thank Enrica de Luca for the biomass data, Annett Lipowsky and Marlén Gubsch for some of the plant trait data, and Tania Jenkins for the phylogeny. This study was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Fonds Québécois de Recherche sur la Nature et les Technologies (FQRNT), and the AquaDiva@Jena project, financed by the state of Thuringia, Germany. LITERATURE CITED Agrawal, A. A. 2011. 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Appendix D Graph of the results from the random forest (RF) analysis, explaining how the selection of traits was done (Ecological Archives E093-248-A4). Supplement Pairwise correlation between each pair of plant traits (Ecological Archives E093-248-S1).
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