Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary
Issued: FEBRUARY 16, 2016
Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales [email protected]
JANUARY 2016
Climate Highlights – The Month in Review
The January contiguous U.S. average temperature was 32.2°F, 2.1°F above the 20th century average, ranking as the
34th warmest January on record.
The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature was 41.9°F, 1.4°F above the 20th century average,
ranking near the median value in the 122-year period of record. The average minimum temperature was 22.5°F, 2.8°F
above average, the 24th warmest on record.
Above-average temperatures were observed across the West, Northern and Central Plains, Upper Midwest, and the
Northeast. Maine observed its 11th warmest January on record. Below-average temperatures occurred in the MidAtlantic and Southeast.
Alaska had its fifth warmest January on record. The statewide average temperature of 17.1°F was 15.0°F above the
long-term average. Much-above-average temperatures were observed throughout the state, with slightly aboveaverage temperatures across the Aleutians.
During January, there were about 3.5 times more record warm daily maximum and minimum temperature records
compared to cold daily maximum and minimum temperature records. There were 1,544 warm daily temperature
records (646 maximum and 898 minimum) compared to 442 cold daily temperature records (286 maximum and 156
minimum).
Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related
energy demand during January was 18 percent below average and the 41th lowest value on record.
The January precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.03 inches, 0.28 inch below the 20th century average, the
36th driest January on record.
Above-average precipitation fell across parts of the West and in Florida. Parts of Florida were record wet and the
statewide precipitation total of 5.96 inches was 3.00 inches above average and ranked as the fourth wettest January for
the state.
According to an analysis of NOAA data by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the January contiguous U.S. snow cover extent
was 1.65 million square miles, 286,000 square miles above the 1981-2010 average, and the seventh largest in the 50year period of record. Above-average snow cover was observed across the West, Northern Plains, and Northeast, with
below-average snow cover in parts of the Southern Plains.
According to the February 2nd U.S. Drought Monitor report, 15.5 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down
from 18.7 percent at the end of December. Drought conditions improved for parts of the West and Northeast, with
drought worsening in parts of the Northern Rockies and Plains. January was drier than average for much of Hawaii, with
many locations receiving less than 25 percent of normal monthly precipitation. Honolulu had its driest January on
record, receiving just 0.01 inches of rainfall. The January normal rainfall for Honolulu is 2.31 inches and the previous
record dry January of 1924 received 0.12 inches. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded to the
entire state.
A powerful winter storm hit the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from January 22-24, with snow falling from Arkansas to
Massachusetts, impacting more than 100 million people. Several cities, including Baltimore, Maryland and New York
City, set new all-time snowfall records. Impacts were widespread with power outages, more than 13,000 flight
cancellations and severe coastal flooding. On the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), the storm rated as a
Category 4 (Crippling) winter storm and ranked as the fourth most impactful winter storm since 1950. Only winter
storms in 1993, 1996, and 1960 ranked higher.
Climate Highlights – Soil Moisture Conditions
Climate Highlights – Severe Weather Analysis
All Event Distribution – January
Tornado Event Distribution – January
Wind Event Distribution – January
Hail Event Distribution – January
Long Range Analog Analysis
In light of the overwhelming evidence of the existing strong ENSO I have maintained the
use of strong analog support using El Nino analog support and have applied the following
adjustments:
Current trends:
Review of Past Analog Selections
So, applying:
1987 at 25%
1990 at 25%
1998 at 50%
… I obtain these suggestions, which were installed:
HISTORICAL ANALOG: FEB 2016
CURRENT OBSERVED + SHORT-TERM FORECAST
(BALANCE of MONTH): FEB 2016
MAR 2016
APR 2016
MAY 2016
JUN 2016
JUL 2016
AUG 2016
European Model Outputs:
MAR, APR, MAY
APR, MAY, JUN
MAY, JUN, JUL
JUN, JUL, AUG
NOAA CFS V2 Model Outputs:
NOAA Official Seasonal Forecasts – Temperature and Precipitation:
AccuWeather’s
2015-2016 Winter
Forecast
Monthly HDDs for WINTER 2015-2016 (out of 66 past winters from 1950, “GCS” = Gas Consuming States):
Forecast Made Oct. 18, 2015:
o Winter 2015-2016 Full USA:
o Winter 2015-2016 GCS:
238,555 HDDs; 60th Coldest;
72,110 HDDs; 52nd Coldest;
Forecast Made Nov. 16, 2015:
o Winter 2015-2016 Full USA:
o Winter 2015-2016 GCS:
236,364 HDDs; 61st Coldest;
70,426 HDDs; 55th Coldest;
Forecast Made Dec. 18, 2015:
o Winter 2015-2016 Full USA:
o Winter 2015-2016 GCS:
231,909 HDDs; 64th Coldest;
66,135 HDDs; 64th Coldest;
Forecast Made Jan. 17, 2015:
o Winter 2015-2016 Full USA:
o Winter 2015-2016 GCS:
232,722 HDDs; 63rd Coldest;
66,310 HDDs; 63rd Coldest;
Forecast Made Feb. 17, 2015:
o Winter 2015-2016 Full USA:
o Winter 2015-2016 GCS:
228,971 HDDs; 64th Coldest;
66,610 HDDs; 63rd Coldest;
Winter 2014-2015:
Winter 2013-2014:
Winter 2012-2013:
Winter 2011-2012:
Winter 2010-2011:
Winter 2009-2010:
Winter 2008-2009:
244,852 HDDs; 51ST Coldest;
271,201 HDDs; 8TH Coldest;
246,194 HDDs; 50th Coldest;
217,975 HDDs; 66th Coldest (1st Warmest);
256,794 HDDs; 38th Coldest;
247,134 HDDs; 48th Coldest;
258,361 HDDs; 32nd Coldest;
Past 5-Winter Average:
Past 10-Winter Average:
248,397 HDDs
248,706 HDDs
COLDEST WINTER since 1950-51:
WARMEST WINTER since 1950-51:
1978-1979; 283,480 HDDs
2011-2012; 217,975 HDDs