PREPARED BY BREA Business Research & Economic Advisors March 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 04 II. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND METHODS 06 III. THE GERMAN CRUISE MARKET IN 2014 08 III.A. Passengers Sourced from Germany 10 III.B. Passenger Cruise Nights Sourced from Germany 12 III.C. Cruise Revenues Generated by Passengers Sourced from Germany 14 III.D. Average Length of a Cruise 17 III.E. Average Age of German Passengers 17 III.F. Cruise Destinations of German Passengers 18 IV. EMPLOYMENT OF GERMAN RESIDENTS BY THE CRUISE INDUSTRY 20 V. CRUISE PASSENGER TRAFFIC AT GERMAN PORTS 20 VI. NEW CRUISE SHIP CONSTRUCTION 21 VII. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN THE GERMAN OCEAN CRUISE MARKET – 2014 22 CLIA Germany & DRV 3 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A survey of German national and international cruise brands1 shows that the German cruise market remains vibrant and continues to expand even in the face of a challenging economic environment. As presented in this report, Germany as a source market for cruise passengers continues to provide a growing number of cruise passengers. While the capacity dedicated to the German market continues to increase, the rate of expansion has slowed over the past several years as the absolute volume of capacity has increased in size. The moderating rate of growth in this capacity has also resulted in a slowing rate of growth in the number of passengers sourced from Germany. Nonetheless, the growth in passengers sourced from Germany has continued to outpace the growth of passengers sourced from most other major North American and European markets. While German passengers predominantly purchase cruises from German national brands, approximately onethird of German passengers cruise on ships of the other major European and North American cruise brands. Although German passengers visit destinations around the globe, European destinations still dominate the cruise itineraries purchased by the passengers sourced from Germany, accounting for about 80% of all German passengers. The major findings of the research into the 2014 German cruise market are shown in Figure 1 and are as follows. German national and international cruise brands sourced 1.77 million German nationals during 2014. This was a 5.0% increase from the 1.69 million passengers sourced during 2013 and represented a new high for the German cruise market. Figure 1: Major Attributes of the German Cruise Market, 2013 and 2014 2013 2014 Yr/Yr Change 1,686,746 1,771,437 5.02% German Passenger Cruise Nights 14,714,526 15,633,110 6.24% Average Length of Cruise (Nights) 8.72 8.83 1.21% Gross Cruise Revenues (Billions)2 € 2.88 € 3.11 8.17% Net Cruise Revenues (NCR) (Billions)3 € 2.52 € 2.71 7.55% € 1,492 € 1,530 2.55% € 171.01 € 173.37 1.38% 50.2 50.4 0.40% German Passengers Average NCR per Passenger Average NCR per Passenger Cruise Night Average Age of German Passengers Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. 1 The terms cruise brands and cruise lines are used interchangeably in this report. revenues are defined as all revenues collected from passengers from all sources including: cost of cruise (ticket revenues), transportation to and from cruise, onboard revenues, shore excursions, etc. 3 Net cruise revenues (NCR) are defined as gross revenues minus the transportation cost of passengers to and from their port of embarkation and disembarkation, primarily the cost of air transportation, but also including motor coach, rail, etc. 2 Gross CLIA Germany & DRV 4 German passenger cruise nights also reached a new high of 15.6 million nights, an increase of 6.2% from the total of 14.7 million nights in 2013. The higher growth rate for passenger cruise nights is directly related to the increase in the average length of cruises purchased by passengers sourced from Germany which rose from 8.72 nights in 2013 to 8.83 nights in 2014. This increase is primarily the result of an increase in the average length of cruises purchased by German nationals from the international brands. Gross cruise revenues generated by passengers sourced from Germany increased by 8.17% and totaled €3.11 billion during 2014. This increase was driven primarily by the 5.0% increase in German passengers. Gross cruise revenues include the ticket revenues of the cruises, onboard revenues and the cost of transportation of passengers between their place of residence and the cruise port of embarkation and disembarkation. The transportation costs are predominantly collected by European-based cruise lines and are included in ticket revenues. Subtracting these transportation costs (€400 million), net cruise revenues of the German national and international brands totaled €2.71 billion in 2014. Average net revenues per German passenger rose by 2.6% from 2013 to €1,530 in 2014. Part of this increase resulted from the increase in the average length of cruises. So the average net revenues per passenger night generated by passengers sourced from Germany rose at a slower pace of 1.4% from €171.01 in 2013 to €173.37 in 2014. Finally, the average age of a German cruise passenger rose just slightly from 50.2 years of age in 2013 to 50.4 years of age in 2014. As shown in Figure 2, cruises to the Mediterranean/Black Sea and UK/Western Europe markets account for nearly half (47%) of the passengers sourced from Germany. Relative to 2013, a higher percentage of passengers purchased cruises to the UK/Western Europe in 2014 while the percentage declined for the Mediterranean/Black Sea itineraries. These changes appear to be related to a shift in cruise capacity away from the Mediterranean and into the rest of Europe. The Norway/Arctic and Atlantic and Canary Isles were the next most popular cruise destinations for German passengers, each accounting for more than 11% of all German passengers. Itineraries to Norway/Arctic experienced a decline of 2 percentage points from 2013 while cruises to the Atlantic and Canary Isles saw an increase of 1.4 percentage points from 2013. The Baltic Sea and Caribbean/Bermuda destination markets each accounted for just under 9.0% of German passengers. The percentage increased from 2013 for the Caribbean/Bermuda market but declined for the Baltic Sea. Finally, the Arab Gulf/Indian Ocean, US/Canada and ROW markets combined accounted for about 12% of German passengers in 2014. The Arab Gulf/Indian Ocean market experienced a decline while the US/Canada market and the ROW declined slightly (0.1 percentage points each) from 2013. Figure 2: Destination Markets for German Cruise Passengers, 2013 and 2014 Mediterranean/Black Sea UK/Ireland/Western Europe Norway/Arctic Atlantic and Canary Isles Baltic Sea Caribbean/ Bermuda Arab Gulf/Indian Ocean US/Canada 2013 2014 33.5% 8.0% 14.5% 9.8% 9.5% 8.1% 8.2% 1.6% 32.1% 14.6% 12.5% 11.2% 8.9% 8.6% 3.9% 1.5% Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 5 II. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND METHODS The principal objective of the project was to collect ocean-going cruise operating and financial statistics that summarized 2014 cruise operations in the German market. These data were collected through a survey of German national and international cruise lines. This survey was designed to collect data in the following major category of operations: 1. Capacity: ships, lower beds; global and German market 2. Passengers and Passenger Cruise Nights sourced from Germany Cruise Revenues: gross, net, per passenger and per diem; Passenger Attributes: distribution by age, length of cruise and destination market Cruise Employment of German Residents: landside and crew 3. 4. 5. The survey was sent to cruise lines and tour operators in Germany and elsewhere that represented 45 cruise brands. Of these, responses were received for 27 cruise brands4, six German national brands and 21 international brands, as follows: Figure 3: Survey Respondents by Cruise Brands German National Cruise Brands AIDA Cruises Phoenix Reisen GmbH SEA CLOUD CRUISES GmbH Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten GmbH PLANTOURS Kreuzfahrten TUI Cruises GmbH Azamara Club Cruises Fred Olsen Cruise Lines Paul Gauguin Cruises Carnival Cruise Lines Holland America Line Princess Cruises Celebrity Cruises Louis Cruises Regent Seven Seas Cruises Costa Crociere MSC Crociere Royal Caribbean International Crystal Cruises Norwegian Cruise Line Seabourn Cunard Line Oceania Cruises SeaDream Yacht Club Disney Cruise Line P&O Cruises Silversea Cruises International Cruise Brands Data for all of these cruise lines were aggregated to develop estimates of the German cruise market. Combined, these cruise brands accounted for 94% of the total estimated passengers, passenger cruise nights and gross revenues sourced from Germany. The German national brands that provided data accounted for 93% of the German passengers, passenger cruise nights and revenues sourced by the German national brands while the international brands that provided data accounted for 94% of the German passengers, passenger cruise nights and revenues sourced by the international brands. 4 Of the 18 cruise lines that declined to provide data, five stated that they did not market in or source passengers from Germany. CLIA Germany & DRV 6 For non-respondent cruise brands German market statistics were estimated from aggregate data provided by CLIA for CLIA member brands and from the survey data obtained from comparable brands for non-CLIA brands as follows. CLIA Brands For CLIA brands that did not respond, data on passengers by source market for 2014 were derived from data collected by CLIA Global. These data covered the passengers by source market, length of cruise, and destination market and age of passengers. Thus, the full set of passenger statistics for passengers sourced from Germany were estimated for each of the non-respondent CLIA brands. Given the estimates of passengers and passenger cruise nights, gross ticket and onboard revenues were estimated for non-respondent CLIA lines from data that has been collected for all CLIA lines for the economic impact studies conducted by BREA. Non-CLIA Brands For Non-CLIA brands that did not respond, including the five German national brands, passenger, revenue and employment statistics were estimated from data reported by comparable brands. Thus each of the non-CLIA brands that did not respond was evaluated in terms of the number of ships, available bed capacity and general itinerary structure, i.e., length of cruises and destination markets. These cruise lines were small lines with fewer than five ships. In fact most had only one or two ships. Based upon these characteristics a set of comparable cruise lines were formulated. For the German national lines the comparable brands were German national brands that completed the survey and for the international brands the comparable brands were other international brands that had completed the survey. The data reported by the comparable brands were converted to per available bed day statistics, i.e., passenger and passenger cruise nights sourced from Germany per available bed day, ticket and onboard revenue generated by passengers sourced from Germany per available bed day, and so forth. These ratios were then applied to the available bed day capacity for each of the non-CLIA brands that did not complete a survey to estimate passengers, passenger cruise nights and revenues generated by passenger sourced from Germany for each of these brands. The age, length of cruise and destination market distributions of the comparable brands were then used to allocate total passengers to each of the age cohorts, length of cruise segments and destination markets. As noted above these estimates for non-respondents accounted for 6% of the total passengers, passenger cruise nights and gross revenues generated by passengers sourced from Germany. CLIA Germany & DRV 7 III. THE GERMAN CRUISE MARKET IN 2014 Data on the German cruise market was obtained from a survey of German national and international cruise brands that source cruise passengers from Germany. These data were then supplemented with estimates for those cruise brands that did not complete the survey (see Section II). As discussed previously, the data collected from the survey respondents accounted for 94% of the total German market estimates. There were eleven German national brands that were identified for 2014. These cruise brands are shown in Figure 4. These are cruise lines and tour operators that are registered in Germany and/or have their principal administrative offices in Germany. Figure 4: German National Cruise Brands German National Cruise Brands AIDA Cruises Passat Kreuzfahrten GmbH SEA CLOUD CRUISES GmbH FTI Cruises GmbH Phoenix Reisen GmbH TransOcean Kreuzfahrten Hansa Touristik GmbH PLANTOURS Kreuzfahrten TUI Cruises GmbH Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten GmbH Reederei Peter Deilmann GmbH All other cruise lines are considered to be international cruise brands. These lines source passengers from Germany and may have marketing offices in Germany but their principal administrative offices are located elsewhere. In total there are more than 40 additional cruise lines that are considered as international cruise brands but not all of these source passengers from Germany. The major international brands included in this analysis are shown in Figure 5. Figure 5: International Cruise Brands Major International Cruise Brands Azamara Club Cruises Holland America Line PONANT Carnival Cruise Lines Hurtigruten ASA Princess Cruises Celebrity Cruises Louis Cruises Regent Seven Seas Cruises Costa Crociere MSC Crociere Royal Caribbean International Crystal Cruises Norwegian Cruise Line Seabourn Cunard Line Oceania Cruises SeaDream Yacht Club Fred Olsen Cruise Lines P&O Cruises Silversea Cruises CLIA Germany & DRV 8 As shown in Figure 6, the German national and international brands had a combined total of 293 ocean-going cruise ships with 29 ships operated by the German national brands. This was the net result of the introduction of the Mein Schiff 3 by TUI Cruises and the removal of the MS Azores with the withdrawal of Ambiente Kreuzfahrten from the cruise market. The total number of lower beds of these cruise ships was 448,729 with the German national brands accounting for 7% of the total. However, the German national brands with 10.7 million German passenger cruise nights accounted for 68% of the total German passenger cruise nights achieved by all brands. Passengers sourced from Germany also purchased longer cruises from the German national brands with an average cruise length of 9.03 nights versus 8.41 nights on the international brands. Figure 6: Attributes of the German National and International Brands, 2014 Brand Segment Ships5 Lower Beds German Passenger Cruise Nights Average Length of Cruise (Nights) National 29 32,655 10,676,928 9.03 International 264 416,074 4,956,182 8.41 Total 293 448,729 15,633,110 8.83 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. Compared to 2013, the German national brands reported a 6.2% increase in lower beds and a 5.6% increase in German passenger cruise nights. The average length of a cruise for the German national brands remained virtually unchanged at just over nine nights. The international brands reported a 3.0% increase in lower beds and a 7.6% increase in German passenger cruise nights. The international brands also reported that the average length of a cruise for German passengers rose from 8.08 nights in 2013 to 8.41 nights in 2014. 5 The figures for ships and lower beds are end-of-year counts for ocean going cruise ships serving German passengers and includes CLIA and non-CLIA member lines. CLIA Germany & DRV 9 III.A. PASSENGERS SOURCED FROM GERMANY Overall, 1.77 million passengers were sourced from Germany by all brands combined in 2014. This represented an increase of 5.0% over 2013 (see Figure 7). Since 2004, German passengers have more than tripled, growing at an average annual rate of 11.8%. Growth has been moderating since 2010 which is due in large part to a general weakening of economic conditions in Europe and Germany, in particular. For example since 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports6 that real GDP growth in Germany has averaged only 0.8% per year through 2014 after averaging 2.0% per year over the previous five years. Figure 7: Cruise Passengers Sourced from Germany (000s), 2004 – 2014 2000 1800 Passengers (Thousands) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Passengers 583 639 705 763 907 1,027 1,219 1,388 1,544 1,687 1,771 Yr/Yr % Change 8.6% 9.6% 10.3% 8.2% 18.9% 13.2% 18.7% 13.9% 11.2% 11.3% 9.2% 5.0% Source: CLIA Germany, DRV and BREA. Since 2007, the growth in passengers sourced from Germany has exceeded that in all other European source markets. It is anticipated that Germany will have become the largest cruise passenger source market in Europe and the second largest global source market behind the United States in 2014. 6 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014. CLIA Germany & DRV 10 As shown in Figure 8, approximately two-thirds of 1.77 million passengers sourced from Germany, 1.18 million passengers, cruised on the German national brands while nearly 590,000 Germans sailed on the international brands in 2014. The German national brands experienced an increase of 5.8% from 2013 in cruise passengers sourced from Germany while the international brands saw a 3.5% increase. Passengers Sourced from Germany Figure 8: German Passengers Carried by German National and International Cruise Brands, 2013 and 2014 1,117,176 1,400,000 1,181,970 1,200,000 1,000,000 589,467 569,570 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 German National Cruise Brands International Cruise Brands 2013 2014 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. As shown in Figure 9, the 1.77 million passengers sourced from Germany accounted for 7.8% of all passengers that cruised on the ships of the German national and international brands during 2014. This is a decline from 8.3% in 2013. The decline in this share is primarily due to decline among the international brands which saw their share of passengers sourced from Germany fall from 3.0% in 2013 to 2.8% in 2014. On the other hand, those Germans cruising on the ships of the German national brands during 2014 accounted for nearly 97% of all passengers on the cruise ships of the German national brands which was up from 96.2% in 2013. Figure 9: Passengers Sourced from Germany as a % of All Cruise Passengers, 2013 and 2014 % of Cruise Passengers 96.2% 96.9% 100% 80% 60% 40% 3.0% 20% 2.8% 8.3% 7.8% 0% German National Cruise Brands International Cruise Brands 2013 All Cruise Brands Combined 2014 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 11 III.B. PASSENGER CRUISE NIGHTS SOURCED FROM GERMANY The 1.77 million passengers sourced from Germany generated a total of 15.63 million passenger cruise nights on-board all cruise brands. This represented an increase of 6.2% over 2013 (see Figure 10). Since 2004, German passenger cruise nights have increased by 172% growing at an average annual rate of 10.5%. The increase in the growth rate of passenger cruise nights sourced from Germany is due to the increase in the average length of a cruise for German passengers which, as reported previously, rose from 8.72 nights in 2013 to 8.83 nights in 2014 (see Figure 1) . Figure 10: Passenger Cruise Nights Generated by Passengers Sourced from Germany (Millions), 2004 - 2014 Passenger Cruise Nights (Millions) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Passenger Nights 5.74 6.14 6.85 7.13 8.50 9.99 11.32 12.81 14.24 14.72 15.63 Yr/Yr % Change 6.7% 7.1% 11.5% 4.1% 19.1% 17.5% 13.4% 13.2% 11.2% 3.3% 6.2% Source: CLIA Germany, DRV and BREA. As shown in Figure 11, the German national brands with 10.68 million passenger cruise nights accounted for 68% of the total passenger cruise nights achieved during 2014. The larger share of passenger cruise nights for the German national brands relative to passengers (67%), is the result of the higher average length of a cruise on the German national brands, 9.03 nights, compared to the 8.41 nights on the international brands. Relative to 2013, German passenger cruise nights on German national brands increased by 5.6%. Passengers sourced from Germany generated 4.96 million passenger cruise nights on the international brands, an increase of 7.6% from 2013. The higher growth among the international brands is the result of the increase in the average length of a cruise by German passengers on the international brands which rose from 8.08 nights in 2013 to 8.41 nights in 2014. CLIA Germany & DRV 12 Passengers Sourced from Germany Figure 11: Passenger Cruise Nights Achieved by German National and International Cruise Brands, 2013 and 2014 12,000,000 10,109,770 10,676,928 10,000,000 8,000,000 4,604,756 6,000,000 4,956,182 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 German National Cruise Brands 2013 International Cruise Brands 2014 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 13 III.C. CRUISE REVENUES GENERATED BY PASSENGERS SOURCED FROM GERMANY The 1.77 million passengers sourced from Germany generated a total of €3.11 billion in gross cruise revenues across all cruise brands. This represented an increase of 8.2% over 2013 (see Figure 12). Since 2004, gross cruise revenues generated by German passengers have increased by 173% growing at an average annual rate of 10.6%. Growth has fluctuated since 2008 which is due in part to the negative impact of the 2009-2010 recession on consumer demand in general and cruises, in particular. Figure 12: Gross Cruise Revenues Generated by German Passengers (Billions), 2004 - 2014 Gross Cruise Revenues (Billions) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gross Revenues € 1.14 € 1.22 € 1.36 € 1.44 € 1.69 € 1.93 € 2.07 € 2.37 € 2.64 € 2.88 € 3.11 Yr/Yr % Change 6.3% 7.3% 11.1% 5.8% 17.7% 14.0% 7.2% 14.7% 11.3% 8.9% 8.2% Source: CLIA Germany, DRV and BREA. Figure 13 shows both gross and net revenues by German national, international and all brands combined. Net revenues are defined as gross revenues minus the passenger transportation costs. In general, net revenues are about 15% lower than gross revenues for the German national brands and 5% lower than gross revenues for the international brands. Net revenues across all brands increased by 7.6% from 2013 to €2.71 billion. This is only slightly lower than the increase in gross revenues, 8.2%, indicating that the share of passenger transportation costs in gross revenues remained relatively stable between 2013 and 2014. Among the German national brands gross revenues rose by 8.0% while net revenues rose by about 8.5% in 2014. Gross revenues rose by 7.4% among the international brands while the net revenues increased by 5.1%. CLIA Germany & DRV 14 Figure 13: Gross and Net Cruise Revenues (Billions), 2013 and 2014 € 3.5 Revenues (Billions) € 3.11 € 2.88 € 3.0 € 0.78 € 0.73 € 2.5 € 2.71 € 2.52 € 0.74 € 0.70 € 2.0 € 1.5 € 1.0 € 2.15 € 2.33 2013 2014 € 1.82 € 1.97 2013 2014 € 0.5 €Gross Revenues Net Revenues German National Cruise Brands International Cruise Brands Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. On a per passenger cruise night basis, net cruise revenues generated by passengers sourced from Germany averaged €173.37 in 2014, an increase of 1.4% from 2013. The German national brands generated an average of €184.93, 25% more than the average for international brands of €148.48 (see Figure 14). Among the German national brands, the average net revenue per passenger night rose by 2.6% from 2013 while for the international brands the average net revenue per passenger night fell by nearly 1.0%. This relative weakness may explain the shift of deployment by some of the North American brands from Europe, especially the Med to Australasia and the Caribbean (see Figure 15). Figure 14: Net Cruise Revenues per Passenger Night, 2013 and 2014 € 173.37 € 171.01 All Cruise Brands € 148.48 € 149.80 International Cruise Brands € 184.93 € 180.18 German National Cruise Brands €0 € 20 € 40 € 60 € 80 € 100 € 120 € 140 € 160 € 180 € 200 Net Revenues per Passenger Night 2014 2013 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 15 Percent Change Figure 15: Deployment Indicator: Percent Change in Bed Day Capacity by Destination Market, 2013 to 2014 (Survey of 18 CLIA International Cruise Brands) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 30.6% 14.2% 9.0% 3.5% 0.5% -1.6% -10.3% -11.4% Source: CLIA. On a per passenger basis, net cruise revenues averaged €1,530 during 2014 (see Figure 16) an increase of 2.6% from 2013. The German national brands generated an average of €1,670, 34% more than the average for international brands of €1,248. Because the average length of a cruise is higher for the German brands compared to the international brands, the average net ticket revenue per passenger is considerably higher for the German brands relative to the international brands than the ticket revenue per passenger cruise night, 34% versus 25%. Among the German national brands, the average net revenue per passenger rose by 2.4% from 2013 while for the international brands the average net revenue per passenger increased by nearly 3.0%. Because the average length of cruise of German passengers on international brands increased in 2014, the average net revenue per passenger increased but the average net revenue per passenger night declined. Figure 16: Net Cruise Revenues per Passenger, 2013 and 2014 € 1,530 € 1,492 All Cruise Brands € 1,248 € 1,211 International Cruise Brands € 1,670 € 1,631 German National Cruise Brands €0 € 300 € 600 € 900 € 1,200 € 1,500 € 1,800 Net Revenues per Passenger Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 2014 2013 16 III.D. AVERAGE LENGTH OF A CRUISE As reported previously, the average length of a cruise for German passengers rose to 8.83 nights in 2014 from 8.72 nights in 2013 (see Figure 1). The German national brands had a higher average cruise length of 9.03 nights compared to 8.41 nights for the international brands (see Figure 6). As indicated in Figure 17, the oneweek cruise remains the dominant cruise choice of German passengers, accounting for more than half of the passengers among all brands. This is followed by cruises of between 8 and 13 nights which were chosen by nearly 22% of all German passengers. While there is a slight variation of the distribution of cruise length between German national and international brands, especially in the 8 to 13 nights category, the overall distribution is very similar for both brand groups. Figure 17: Distribution of Cruises by Length of Cruise (Nights), 2014 60% % of German Passengers 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 to 3 Nights 4 to 6 Nights 7 Nights 8 to 13 Nights 14 Nights 15 to 20 Nights Over 20 Nights German National Cruise Brands 1.5% 6.5% 55.9% 16.0% 13.2% 6.0% 0.9% International Cruise Brands 4.9% 2.7% 51.2% 34.3% 2.8% 3.2% 0.9% All Cruise Brands 2.6% 5.3% 54.3% 22.2% 9.7% 5.1% 0.9% Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. III.E. AVERAGE AGE OF GERMAN PASSENGERS The average age of a German cruise passenger was 50.4 years of age which was up slightly from 50.2 in 2013 (see Figure 1). Across both brand groups, just about 75% of German passengers were over the age of 40 and just over 22% were over the age of 65 (see Figure 18). However, the average age of Germans onboard the international brands was significantly higher than those cruising on the German national brands, 51.6 years of age versus 49.8. For example, 28% of the German passengers cruising on the international brands were over the age of 65 compared to just 20% for the German national brands. CLIA Germany & DRV 17 Figure 18: German Cruise Passenger Age Distribution, 2014 % of German Passengers 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than 15 Years of Age 15 to 25 Years of Age 26 to 40 Years of Age 41 to 55 Years of Age 56 to 65 Years of Age 66 to 75 Years of Age Over 75 Years of Age German National Cruise Brands 6.8% 5.9% 13.2% 32.2% 21.6% 15.8% 4.5% International Cruise Brands 7.2% 5.3% 10.8% 27.9% 20.8% 19.7% 8.4% All Cruise Brands 6.9% 5.7% 12.3% 30.7% 21.4% 17.1% 5.8% Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. III.F. CRUISE DESTINATIONS OF GERMAN PASSENGERS As shown in Figure 19, cruises to the top seven destination markets carried approximately 93% of the passengers sourced from Germany. The most popular destination markets were the Mediterranean/Black Sea and the UK/Ireland/Western Europe. Combined, nearly half (47%) of the German passengers sailed on cruises to these two markets. These were followed by cruises to the Norway/Arctic and the Atlantic and Canary Isles markets which combined accounted for 24% of the German passengers that cruised during 2014. The destinations of the North America/Caribbean and Baltic Sea markets were each visited by about 10% of German passengers. Approximately 4.0% of German passengers visited destinations the Arab Gulf/Indian Ocean market. Finally, 6.7% of German passengers visited destinations in other markets, including Australia/New Zealand, Asia, South America and Transatlantic cruises. Figure 19: German Cruise Passenger Destinations, 2013 and 2014 32.1% 33.5% Mediterranean/Black Sea UK/Western Europe 8.0% 12.5% 14.5% 11.2% 9.8% 10.1% 9.7% 8.9% 9.5% Norway/Arctic Atlantic and Canary Isles North America/Caribbean Baltics 3.9% Arab Gulf/Indian Ocean All Others 0% 5% Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 14.6% 8.2% 6.7% 6.8% 10% 15% 20% 25% Share of Passengers Sourced from Germany 2014 30% 35% 40% 2013 18 As shown in Figure 20, the vast majority of German passengers (80%) boarded cruises that were bound for European destinations. This represented a significant increase from 75% in 2013. Share of Passengers Sourced from Germany Figure 20: German Cruise Passenger Destinations – Europe vs. Rest of the World, 2011-2014 90% 80% 76.6% 80.5% 75.3% 74.4% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 23.4% 25.6% 24.7% 20% 19.5% 10% 0% 2011 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. CLIA Germany & DRV 2012 Europe 2013 2014 Rest of the World 19 IV. EMPLOYMENT OF GERMAN RESIDENTS BY THE CRUISE INDUSTRY Data collected from the German national and international cruise lines showed that the cruise industry employed nearly 5,800 German residents in their administrative offices and onboard their cruise ships. This was a 4.9% increase from 2013. Not surprisingly, the German national brands employed the majority (78%) of the cruise industry’s German based employees. As shown in Figure 21, the German national brands employed 86%, 1,373 employees, of the total landside employment and 75% of the total crew. Figure 21: Employment and Income – German Employees of Cruise Lines, 2014 Landside Crew Total All Cruise Brands 1,599 4,197 5,796 German National Cruise Brands 1,373 3,127 4,500 226 1,070 1,296 International Cruise Brands Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. V. CRUISE PASSENGER TRAFFIC AT GERMAN PORTS Germany is not only a source market for cruise passengers it is also a cruise destination with major cruise ports along the North and Baltic Seas. During 2014 there were over 600 cruise ship calls at German ports and nearly 1.56 million cruise passengers (embarkations + disembarkations + transit)7 were processed at these ports. This was a 4.0% increase from 2013 (see Figure 22). Figure 22: Cruise Passenger Traffic at German Ports, 2014 Cruise Passengers 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 588,690 509,000 354,000 106,822 Hamburg Rostock/ Warnemünde Kiel All Other Ports Transit 29,420 261,350 60,400 37,972 Disembarkations 277,812 123,825 148,550 34,425 Embarkations 281,458 123,825 145,050 34,425 Source: CLIA Germany and BREA. 7 This accounting of cruise passengers is the generally accepted methodology and is also referred to as passenger throughput. Some ports also count transit passengers twice since they disembark upon arrival and re-embark prior to departure. CLIA Germany & DRV 20 Germany’s three major ports, Hamburg, Rostock/Warnemünde and Kiel, accounted for 93% of all port cruise passenger traffic. Hamburg is Germany’s principal homeport with 281,458 embarkations followed by Kiel with 145,050 embarkations. As shown in Figure 22, Hamburg is primarily a homeport with embarkations and disembarkations accounting for 95% of the cruise passenger traffic. On the other hand, Kiel is slightly more diversified with transit passengers accounting for 17% of the cruise passenger traffic at the port. Rostock/ Warnemünde is Germany’s largest transit port with 261,350 transit passengers accounting for over half (54%) of the total cruise passenger traffic at the port. Finally, the remaining ports, which include Bremerhaven, Travemünde, Sassnitz, Sylt and Wismar, posted approximately 107,000 cruise passengers during 2014. VI. NEW CRUISE SHIP CONSTRUCTION In 2014, the ocean cruise fleet of the German national and international cruise brands examined in this study had a combined fleet of 293 cruise ships and 448,729 lower beds (see Figure 6). The eleven German national cruise brands operated 29 vessels with 32,655 lower beds. As noted previously, the number of ships was unchanged from 2013. This was the net result of the introduction of the Mein Schiff 3 by TUI Cruises and the removal of the MS Azores with the withdrawal of Ambiente Kreuzfahrten from the cruise market. Across both German national and international brands there was a net increase of 4 cruise ships and 14,079 lower beds from 2013. During 2014 six ocean-going cruise ships (new builds) were introduced with one of the new vessels, the Mein Schiff 3, operated by the German national cruise line, TUI Cruises GmbH. These new 2014 vessels represented a €3.44 billion investment and an additional 18,079 lower beds. Of this 2014 total, the Mein Schiff 3 with 2,500 lower beds accounted for nearly 14% of total increase in new beds. Figure 23: German Nation Cruise Lines – New Ship and Capacity Outlook, 2015 – 2017* Year New Ships on Order Lower Beds Delivery Ship Yard 2015 AIDA Cruises - AIDAprima 3,250 October Mitsubishi 2015 TUI Cruises GmbH – Mein Schiff 4 2,500 April STX 2016 AIDA Cruises - TBA 3,250 March Mitsubishi 2016 TUI Cruises GmbH – Mein Schiff 5 2,500 Winter STX 2017 TUI Cruises GmbH – Mein Schiff 6 2,500 Winter STX Ships Added Lower Beds Added Yr/Yr Capacity Change German National Cruise Fleet Beds 2014 1 2,500 8.30% 32,665 2015 2 5,750 17.6% 38,415 2016 2 5,750 15.0% 44,165 2017 1 2,500 5.7% 46,665 Total (2015-2017) 5 14,000 42.9% *Does not reflect unannounced buildings and future ship withdrawals. Source: CLIA. CLIA Germany & DRV 21 In addition to the Mein Schiff 3, the ships introduced in 2014 included: Pearl Seas Cruises – Pearl Mist (210), Princess Cruises – Regal Princess (3,600), Norwegian Cruise Line - Norwegian Getaway (3,969), Royal Caribbean International – Quantum of the Seas (4,100), Costa Cruises – Costa Diadema (3,700). Looking forward to the period of 2015 through 2017, the global ocean-going new ship order book includes 25 ships, 70,741 lower beds and an additional €14.86 billion capital investment. The additional lower beds added in this three-year period represents an increase of 14.8% as compared to 2014. Of these 25 new ocean going vessels being introduced over the 2015-2017 period, five are being introduced by the German national brands of TUI Cruises GmbH and AIDA Cruises, two in 2015, two in 2016 and one in 2017 (see Figure 23). These five vessels represent an additional 14,000 beds or 19.7% of the total announced new global ocean cruise capacity. These additional 14,000 beds will increase the capacity of the German national cruise brands to 46,665 beds from the 2014 capacity of 32,665 or by 42.9%, a growth rate of more than double the global growth rate. VII. SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN THE GERMAN OCEAN CRUISE MARKET – 2014 First Quarter • • • • • FTI Cruises GmbH announced the appointment of V-Ships as managers for the Berlin. Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten GmbH announced plans for its first North-east Passage cruise in 2015. Meyer Werft of Papenburg, Germany, delivered the 4,000 berth Norwegian Getaway to Norwegian Cruise Line and announced an order for a second 3,360 passenger ship for Star Cruises. TransOcean Kreuzfahrten was acquired from Premicon by UK cruise operator, Cruise and Maritime Voyages. The operator will continue to target the German market during the Northern Summer itineraries and the Australian itineraries over the winter period. The keel-laying of TUI Cruises GmbH’s second 99,500gt new building, Mein Schiff 4, took place in Turku, Finland. Second Quarter • • • • AIDA Cruises announced a six-month delay in the completion of AIDAprima by Mitsubishi of Japan with the vessel now due in October. AIDAluna and Cunard Line’s Queen Elizabeth completed dry-dockings at Blohm+Voss, both included installation of exhaust scrubbers. Ambiente Kreuzfahrten announced its withdrawal from the cruise market following the conclusion of the 2014 season in September. TUI Cruises GmbH took delivery of its first new building, the 2,506-berth Mein Schiff 3, on May 22 from STX Finland’s Turku Shipyard. The christening took place in Hamburg on June 12. CLIA Germany & DRV 22 Third Quarter • Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten GmbH’s Hanseatic was reported to have set a new record of the northernmost position, 85° 40.7´ N, ever reached by a passenger ship in the North-east Passage. • In August, Meyer Werft acquired a 70% stake in the STX Finland shipyard in Turku, following negotiations with the Finnish Government and the signature of a share purchase agreement with the current Korean-based owners of the yard. Meyer Werft received orders from Norwegian Cruise Line for two more 4,200-passenger Breakaway-Plus class vessels for delivery in 2018 and 2019. The keel of the first in class, Norwegian Escape, was laid on September 19. • • • Passat Kreuzfahrten announced the cancellation of its 2015 season, pending restructuring of the company. TUI Cruises GmbH announced orders for two further 99,500 gross ton ships, Mein Schiff 5 and Mein Schiff 6, from the former STX Finland shipyard in Turku, now controlled by Meyer Werft. The new ships are for delivery in 2016-17 with options for two further units. Fourth Quarter • • • • • • Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten GmbH achieved the three highest rated ships in the 2015 edition of the Berlitz Guide to Cruising and Cruise Ships (Europa, Europa 2 and Hanseatic). The two Europa ships were the only ones rated 5 star plus. Becker Marine Systems & AIDA Cruises: Christening of the world’s first LNG hybrid barge- a floating LNG power plant for environmentally friendly energy supply of cruise ships during their port stay, on October 18, in Hamburg.With the start of the new cruise season in the spring of 2015, it is planned to supply AIDAsol, as the first cruise ship world wide with electricity produced from ecological friendly liquefied natural gas (LNG) while it is berthed in the port of Hamburg. In October, Royal Caribbean took delivery of the Quantum of the Seas from Meyer Werft. The vessel sailed from Bremerhaven to commence service in North America. Meyer Werft also commenced construction of the third of the Oasis-class ships, Ovation of the Seas. Premicon Hochseekreuzfahrten GmbH, former owners of Astor, filed for insolvency in November. Following the insolvency of the owners, a dry-docking of the former Reederei Peter Deilmann GmbH flagship, Deutschland, was cancelled and the vessel offered for sale. A 71-day refit at Lloyd Werft for Phoenix Reisen GmbH’s Artania was completed, including the installation of four new main engines. In November, steel was cut for TUI Cruises GmbH’s Mein Schiff 5. CLIA Germany & DRV 23 SOURCES DISCLAIMER Business Research & Economic Advisors (BREA) and GP Wild (International) Ltd. (June 2014). The Cruise Industry: Contribution of Cruise Tourism to the Economy of Europe, 2014 Edition, Brussels: CLIA Europe. Business Research & Economic Advisors (BREA) makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report, including estimates, and shall have no liability for any representations (expressed or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from, this report. Cruise Lines International Association. CLIA 2014 Annual Deployment Survey. 2015 DRV / CLIA Deutschland (March 2014). Der HochseeKreuzfahrtmarkt Deutschland 2013. Hamburg DRV – Deutscher ReiseVerband e.V. (2013). Der Kreuzfahrtenmarkt Deutschland 2012. Berlin International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014. IMPRINT Publisher Cruise Lines International Association Deutschland (CLIA Deutschland) & Deutscher ReiseVerband e.V. (DRV) House of Cruises, Bergstedter Chaussee 104 22395 Hamburg, Germany Email: [email protected] Author Business Research and Economic Advisors (BREA), LLP Publication Date: 05th of March 2015 Distribution This study can be purchased for a fee of 95, 00 EUR plus VAT and mailing expenses. The distribution is done by CLIA Deutschland. CLIA Germany & DRV We take no responsibility for the accuracy of the market and survey information that has been provided to us by others. The information provided to us has not been audited or verified and is assumed to be accurate. Our analyses are based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from our research, knowledge of the industry and other factors, including certain information provided by others. Accordingly, we express no opinion or other form of assurance on the market or financial feasibility of the cruise industry or related industries, or upon the financial and market information contained in the report. Some assumptions may not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results during the period covered by the analysis may vary from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Neither this report nor any other presentation material, nor any reference to our Firm may be included or quoted in any offering circular or registration statement, prospectus, sales brochure, appraisal, loan or other agreement. Further, we have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the report date. 24
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