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“The Mediterranean is the ocean of the past,
The Atlantic, the ocean of the present,
And the Pacific, the ocean of the future.”
Geopolitics of the Pacific Sphere in the 21st century
Swiss Institute of International Studies Zürich, 6 November 2013
Jean‐Pierre Lehmann (Jean‐[email protected]
Emeritus Professor, IMD
Founder, The Evian Group@IMD
1889, U.S. Secretary of State John Hay, author of the “Open Door Policy” Visiting Professor, Hong Kong University
Visiting Professor, NIIT University (Rajasthan) In 1949 Mao changed China
In 1979 Deng changed the world
Part I China in the Global Scheme of Things
Jonathan Fenby, Tiger Head – Snake Tails
The Chinese miracle is best summed up by observing that in 1978 Deng said that China could not do without global capitalism;
three decades later it is clear that global capitalism cannot do without China!
Rajiv Kumar
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Amiral Zheng He
鄭和
(1371–1433) Xuande Emperor
宣德
Reign 27 June 1425
– 31 January 1435 2
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Lin Zexu Letter of Advice to Queen Victoria
But after a long period of commercial intercourse, there appear among the crowh of barbarians both good persons and bad, unevenly. Consequently there are those who smuggle opium to seduce the Chinese people and so cause the spread of the poison to all provinces. Such persons who only care to profit themselves, and disregard their harm to others, are not tolerated by the laws of heaven and are unanimously hated by human beings. His Majesty the Emperor, upon hearing of this, is in a towering rage. He has especially sent me, his commissioner, to come to Kwangtung, and together with the governor‐general and governor jointly to investigate and settle this matter. By what right do they then in return use the poisonous drug to injure the Chinese people? Let us ask, where is your conscience? I have heard that the smoking of opium is very strictly forbidden by your country; that is because the harm caused by opium is clearly understood. Since it is not permitted to do harm to your own country, then even less should you let it be passed on to the harm of other countries ‐‐ how much less to China! http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/core9/phalsall/texts/com‐lin.html
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China
August 1945
China's "Peaceful Rise" to LIBERATION
Great‐Power Status
October 1949
Zheng Bijian
Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005
“The most important strategic choice the Chinese made [in the late 1970s] was to embrace economic globalization rather than detach themselves from it.” “The Chinese People Have Stood up!”
“Never will China be humiliated again!”
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China’s global trajectory Following:
The European 19th Century (1815‐1914)
The American 20th Century (1941‐2003)
Part III An Asia‐Centric 21st Century
in a Multipolar World
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Europe the Centre of the Universe
“A European could survey the world in 1913 as the Greek gods might have surveyed it from the snowy heights of Mount Olympus: themselves above, the teeming earth below.”
Charles Emmerson, 1913: The Year Before the Great War
“The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises of any quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or even trouble, in their prospective fruits and advantages;..... . He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and comfortable means of transit to any country or climate without passport or other formality, .... . But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs as normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement ... .”
John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace
Meanwhile:
There was war
Between China & Japan 1894‐95
And:
A Major Revolution
in China (1911) 28 June 1914
But globally these were very peripheral affairs in the European century …………. 4
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Yukichi Fukuzawa (1835-1901)
Japan in the European Century
Japan – the only non‐Western industrial and imperial power
“It has been our fate as a nation not to have ideologies, but to be one”.
(Richard Hofstadter)
“I have never
faltered, and I will
never falter, in my
belief that
enduring peace
and the welfare of
nations are
indissolubly
connected with
friendliness,
fairness, equality
and the maximum
practicable
degree of
freedom in
international
trade.”
“No state is likely to match the
US in the four key dimensions
of power –
military,
economic, technological, and cultural –
that confer global political clout.”
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Cordell Hull
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Japan Joins the American Century
But can/will Japan join the Asian century? PM Abe to Pres Obama: «Japan is back» Part III Defining Dynamics of
East Asia in the New Global Disorder Economics
‐ growth
‐ business model
‐ locomotive Demographics ‐ urbanisation
‐ aspiring classes
‐ aging/youth dividend Climate change & environment Resources – water/energy/food
Geopolitics ‐ territorial disputes
‐ nuclear proliferation
‐ legacy of the past
East Asia Was
Transformed
From the World’s Most
Economically Backward
& Conflict Area
to the World’s Fastest
Growth Area
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Successful Growth Narratives
1950 – 2005/ 7% aag for 25 years
Country
Period of High Growth
Income pc at the
beginning
The reverse domino theory
Income pc at the end
Botswana
1960-2005
210
3800
Brazil
1950-1980
960
4000
China
1961-2005
105
1400
Hong Kong
1960-1997
3100
29900
Indonesia
1966-1997
200
900
Japan
1950-1983
3500
39600
Korea
1960-2001
1100
13200
Malaysia
1967-1997
790
4400
Malta
1963-1994
1100
9600
Oman
1960-1999
950
9000
Singapore
1967-2002
2200
25400
Taiwan
1965-2002
1500
16400
Thailand
1960-1997
330
2400
37
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But … remember
Economic forecasters were created by God to make weather forecasters look good! Demographics
China is aging
India is booming
Both have severe gender imbalance
Growth and Environment in China
• Between 2000 and 2005, China has increased 70% of energy consumption and 75% of coal consumption.
• Dependence on coal for nearly 70% of it’s energy supply contributes more than ¼ of global emission.
• Cheap source of energy for electricity but it is also “dirty”. It causes local pollution, acid rain, and higher carbon emissions (CO2) than oil and natural gas.
• Air pollution by vehicles and factories.
• Social implications like migration, public health.
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Traffic jam in August, along a highway leading to Beijing, stretched over 100km and lasted for nine days. East Asia’s Geopolitical
Fault‐lines
Japan’s
Neighbourhood
Issues 9
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http://micgadget.com/24215/infographic‐china‐military‐vs‐u‐s‐military/
«Asia faces a daunting water crisis that threatens
its economic and political rise and environmental
sustainability» 10
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Tibetan Plateau Map of dams in China
China`s Three Gorges Dam
Part IV Global (Non‐) Governance
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“a pantomime horse manned by a troupe of slapstick clowns”
Alan Beattie, FT International Economics Editor
Part V Conclusions The WTO Dying Doha Doldrums – A Bali Bailout? 12
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The Rise of the Great Powers
East Asia & the New Global Disorder
Weaknesses
Strengths
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Table of Contents
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Growth
Regional economics
Supply chains
Global clout
Business
Entrepreneurship
Education
Diasporas
Socio‐cultural dynamics
Pragmatism
Regional institutions
Regional coordination
Regional geopolitics
Environment
Resources (water)
Demographics
Inequality
Rule of law
Leadership
Soft power
China 2030:
Building a Modern,
Harmonious, and Creative
High Income Society
China’s path: 1978 to 2030
A new development strategy for 2030
Six strategic directions
Overcoming obstacles to reform
World Bank
China in 2030
If China seizes its opportunities, meets its
challenges, and manages its risks, by 2030 it
will become:
• A high income economy
• with harmonious social, environmental, and
global relations
#1
Portugal
#2
Spain #3
Netherlands
#4
United Kingdom
#5
France
#6
Germany #7
Japan
#8
Russia
#9
United States A new development strategy for 2030
The six strategic directions:
• Recalibrate the role of government and the private sector to strengthen the market‐based economy;
• Encourage system‐wide “open” innovation
• Grow green • Promote equality of opportunity and basic social protection for all
• Build a strong fiscal system aligned with the evolving role of government
• Develop win‐win relations with the rest of the world China and the New World
Whether it’s looking out over the next few years or the next quarter‐century, how the world’s most populous country handles the many developmental challenges it faces, will go a long way toward determining what kind of world we inhabit. Pick an issue – the environment, the military, international affairs or the global economy – China’s choices will have a major impact on Asia and the world. If China makes the wrong decisions, the result will be chilling, not only for the country’s 1.3 billion citizens but for many people beyond its borders as well. Conversely, a China that successfully makes the transformation to a relatively affluent, open society will be both an inspiration to other countries and a locomotive that will help to power the world’s economies. Supachai Panitchpakdi
China and the WTO: Changing China, Changing World Trade (2002) with Mark Clifford
• driven by creativity and the power of ideas
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