Poverty Reduction in Russia: Dynamics and Structure NIKOLAY G

6RXWK(DVWHUQ(XURSH-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLFV
POVERTY REDUCTION IN RUSSIA:
DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE
1,.2/$<*.8=1(7&29*
/8'0,/$,1,9252=+.,1$
5RVWRY6WDWH(FRQRPLF8QLYHUVLW\5XVVLD
Abstract
7EINVESTIGATETHEDYNAMICSANDTHESTRUCTUREOF2USSIANPOVERTYDURINGTHEPERIODINTHECONTEXTOFTHEGOVERNMENTSOCIOECONOMICPOLICYOFPOVERTYREDUCTION4HEDEVELOPMENTOFEլECTIVEPROGRAMSFORÎGHTINGPOVERTYREQUIRESANALYSISOFTHESUCCESSESANDFAILURESOFPASTPOLICIES4HEPAPERSHEDSLIGHT
ONPOVERTYALLEVIATIONPROGRAMSIN2USSIABYANALYSINGDATAFORTHEPERIOD
COVERINGBOTHTHEPERIODOFDEEPSOCIOECONOMICCRISISANDMAJORECONOMIC
RESURGENCE4HETRENDSINTHEDEPTHANDSEVERITYOFPOVERTYANDINCOMEDEÎCITFOR
VARIOUSSOCIODEMOGRAPHICGROUPSAREPRESENTED
-(/&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ&',
Key words:3RYHUW\SUR¿OHLQFRPHVRFLDOSROLF\KRXVHKRGV
* Corresponding author: 5RVWRY 6WDWH (FRQRPLF 8QLYHUVLW\ 'HSDUWPHQW RI (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\
%6DGRYD\DVWURI¿FH5RVWRYRQ'RQ5XVVLD
HPDLONX]QHFRY#UVXHUX
$QHDUOLHUYHUVLRQRIWKLVSDSHUZDVSUHVHQWHGGXULQJWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRI$6(&8
KHOGLQ3RGJRULFD0D\
)LQDQFLDOVXSSRUWIURP(FRQRPLFV(GXFDWLRQDQG5HVHDUFK&RQVRUWLXPLVJUDWHIXOO\DFNQRZOHGJHG
$XWKRUV DUH WKDQNIXOO WR 6HUJH\$U]KHQRYVN\$QWRQ 1LYRUR]KNLQ DQG (XJHQH 1LYRUR]KNLQ IRU
FRPPHQWRQWKHHDUOLHUGUDIWVRIWKHSDSHU
228 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
Introduction
$OOHYLDWLRQRISRYHUW\LVRQHRIWKHSULPDU\REMHFWLYHVRI5XVVLDQHFRQRPLFGHYHORS
PHQW,QRUGHUWRHYDOXDWHWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHSRYHUW\UHGXFWLRQSURJUDPVLWLV
QHFHVVDU\WRDQDO\]HWUHQGVLQSRYHUW\GXULQJDVXI¿FLHQWSHULRGRIWLPH7KHDQDO\VLV
VKRXOGQRWRQO\FDSWXUHWKHWRWDOQXPEHURISHRSOHOLYLQJLQSRYHUW\EXWDOVRIRFXVRQ
WKHVSHFL¿FVRFLRGHPRJUDSKLFJURXSVZKLFKZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WRH[SHULHQFHSRYHUW\
LQGLIIHUHQWSHULRGV.QRZLQJWKHSRYHUW\G\QDPLFVRIDSDUWLFXODUVRFLRGHPRJUDSK
LF JURXS DOORZV XV WR GHVFULEH FKDQJHV LQ WKH SRYHUW\ SUR¿OH DQG WKXV WR HYDOXDWH
WKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWSRYHUW\UHGXFWLRQSURJUDPVWDUJHWHGDWVSHFL¿F
VRFLRGHPRJUDSKLFJURXSV
6LQFHWKH)HGHUDO6WDWH6WDWLVWLFV6HUYLFHRI5XVVLD5RVVWDWKDVSXEOLVKHG
LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHVKDUHRISRSXODWLRQZLWKDPRQHWDU\LQFRPHEHORZWKHVXEVLVWHQFH
PLQLPXP+RZHYHUWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQPD\QRWEHHQRXJKWRDVVHVVWKHOHYHORISRYHUW\
EHFDXVHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIQRQPRQHWDU\LQFRPHVRXUFHVVXFKDVLQFRPHLQNLQG
DQGLQWUDIDPLO\WUDQVIHUVKDVULVHQVKDUSO\7KHQHFHVVLW\RIEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKH
HIIHFWVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWSROLF\RQSRYHUW\WUHQGVLQ5XVVLDZDVRQHRIWKHUHDVRQV
IRUFRQGXFWLQJKRXVHKROGVXUYH\VVXFKDVWKH5XVVLD/RQJLWXGLQDO0RQLWRULQJ6XU
YH\5/067KH5/06GDWDVHWFRYHUVWKHSHULRGIURPWRDQGDOORZVXV
WRPRQLWRUDQGHYDOXDWHJRYHUQPHQWVRFLDOSROLF\LQWKHDUHDRISRYHUW\DOOHYLDWLRQ1
7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKHSDSHULVWRH[SODLQWKHFKDQJHVLQWKHVWUXFWXUHRI5XVVLDQ
SRYHUW\LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWSROLF\RISRYHUW\DOOHYLDWLRQ7RPHHWWKH
REMHFWLYHVRIWKHVWXG\ZHKDYHWRGHWHUPLQHWKHWUHQGVLQWKHOHYHOGHSWKDQGVHYHU
LW\RISRYHUW\IRUYDULRXVVRFLRHFRQRPLFJURXSVRIKRXVHKROGV
7KHOLWHUDWXUHGHDOLQJZLWKWKHLVVXHVRISRYHUW\PHDVXUHPHQWLVODUJHDQGZHOO
HVWDEOLVKHG5DYDOOLRQSUHVHQWVDFRPSUHKHQVLYHRYHUYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQ
WKHLVVXHVUHODWHGWRSRYHUW\PHDVXUHPHQW7KHLPSDFWRIDJJUHJDWHZHOIDUHRQSRY
HUW\DQGLQHTXDOLW\LQ5XVVLDLVLQYHVWLJDWHGLQ2YFKDURYDDQG7HVOLXF7KH
:RUOG%DQNSUHVHQWVLQGHSWKDQDO\VLVRI5XVVLDQSRYHUW\WUHQGVLQFOXGLQJUH
JLRQDOSRYHUW\WUHQGV,QWKHDQDO\VLVRISRYHUW\RQHRIWKHPRVWZLGHO\XVHGLQGH[HV
DUH)*7LQGH[HV)RVWHUet al.7KHVHLQGH[HVDOORZDGGLWLYHGHFRPSRVLWLRQ
RI SRYHUW\ DFFRUGLQJ WR JHRJUDSKLFDO DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPSDFWV 5HFHQW VWXGLHV
SUHVHQWLQJGHFRPSRVLWLRQRI5XVVLDQSRYHUW\XVLQJ)*7LQGH[HVLQFOXGH*XVWDIVVRQ
DQG1LYRUR]KNLQD
,QWKHFRQWH[WRIDFRQVLGHUHGSUREOHPZHXQGHUVWDQGWKHHI¿FLHQF\RIVWDWHSROLF\DVSURGXFWLYH
UHGXFWLRQRISRYHUW\:LWKLQVXFKDQDSSURDFKWKLVPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOFRQFHSWFDQEHFKDUDFWHULVHG
DVHFRQRPLFRUVRFLDOPDFURHFRQRPLFJURXSRULQGLYLGXDOHI¿FLHQF\
N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240 229
Review of the macroeconomic trends in the context of social policy, 1994-2006
7KHVWDUWRIHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVLQ5XVVLDOHGWRVLJQL¿FDQWGHFOLQHLQDOOVHFWRUVRI
WKHHFRQRP\DQGODVWHGZHOOLQWRWKHV$QDGYHUVHHIIHFWRIWKHUHIRUPVZDV
LQFUHDVHGXQFHUWDLQW\RI5XVVLDQKRXVHKROGVDERXWWKHIXWXUH3ULYDWLVDWLRQDQGLQVRO
YHQF\RIVWDWHRZQHGFRPSDQLHVOHGWRDULVHLQXQHPSOR\PHQWDQGGHWHULRUDWLRQRI
WKHVRFLDOVHFXULW\V\VWHPRIWHQSURYLGHGE\WKHHPSOR\HU:DJHDUUHDUVDQGXQSDLG
OHDYHVEHFDPHDQRUP0DQ\LQGLYLGXDOVIRXQGWKHLUHGXFDWLRQDQGVNLOOVRXWGDWHG
DQGRIQRXVHLQWKHPDUNHWHQYLURQPHQW7DEOHSUHVHQWVWKHPDLQPDFURLQGLFDWRUV
IRUWKHSHULRG
*'3 JURZWK UHPDLQHG QHJDWLYH WKURXJKRXW PRVW RI WKH V +LJK OHYHOV RI
LQÀDWLRQHUDGLFDWHGVDYLQJVDQGQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWHGFRQVXPSWLRQ,QWKH5XV
VLDQHFRQRP\VKRZHGVRPHVLJQVRIUHFRYHU\ZKLFKZDVIROORZHGE\WKH¿QDQFLDO
FULVLVRI%URZQ%XFKVDQGVXEVHTXHQWHFRQRPLFXSKHDYDO,Q
WKHSHULRGRIVWURQJJURZWKVWDUWHGDQGE\WKH5XVVLDQHFRQRP\UHDFKHG
DUHFRUG*'3JURZWKUDWH
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHRI¿FLDOVWDWLVWLFVZDJHVWHQGWREHWKHPDLQVRXUFHRILQFRPH
KRZHYHUVLQFHWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHUHIRUPVWKHLUFRQWULEXWLRQKDVGHFOLQHGE\DIDF
WRURI6LQFHWKHHQGRIWKHVUHDOZDJHVZHUHLQFUHDVLQJZLWKWKHKLJKHVW
JURZWKUDWHLQWKH\HDU'XULQJWKHSHULRGWKHJURZWKUDWHLQUHDO
ZDJHVVORZHGGRZQ
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHRI¿FLDOVWDWLVWLFVWKH*LQLLQGH[LQFUHDVHGIURPLQWR
LQ,QWKHODWHUSHULRGWKHFRHI¿FLHQWGHFOLQHGWLOOEXWVWLOOUHPDLQV
KLJKFRPSDUHGWRRWKHU(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV
7UHQGVLQWKHZHOOEHLQJRIWKHVRFLDOO\GHSULYHGJURXSVLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHLUSRVLWLRQ
KDGGHWHULRUDWHGWKURXJKRXWPRVWRIWKHV
7KH5XVVLDQV\VWHPRIVRFLDOLQVXUDQFHIDLOHGWRSURWHFWORZLQFRPHIDPLOLHV$
QXPEHURILPSRUWDQWVRFLDOVHFXULW\FRPSRQHQWVZHUHUHJDUGHGDVLQDGHTXDWH)RU
H[DPSOHFKLOGEHQH¿WVDPRXQWHGWRRIWKHVXEVLVWHQFHPLQLPXPLQ
)URPWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHVQHZW\SHVRIEHQH¿WVKDGHPHUJHGXQHPSOR\
PHQW EHQH¿WV EHQH¿WV IRU ORZ LQFRPH IDPLOLHV DVVLVWDQFH WR WKH IRUFHG PLJUDQWV
IURPWKHUHSXEOLFVRIWKHIRUPHU6RYLHW8QLRQ$VDUHVXOWLQWKH\HDUWKHIHG
HUDOEXGJHW¿QDQFHGDURXQGVRFLDOSURJUDPVIRURYHUHOLJLEOHJURXSV
,QWKHPLGGOHRIWKHVRIWKH5XVVLDQSRSXODWLRQZHUHHOLJLEOHIRUVWDWH
VXSSRUW$WWKHVDPHWLPHGXHWRWKHFRPSOLFDWHGSURFHGXUHDQGORZOHYHORIEHQH¿WV
RQO\RI5XVVLDQKRXVHKROGVUHFHLYHGVWDWHVXEVLGLHV$PRQJKRXVHKROGVZLWK
LQFRPH OHYHOV EHORZ WKH VXEVLVWHQFH PLQLPXP RQO\ UHFHLYHG VWDWH VXSSRUW
7KHDWWHPSWWRVZLWFKIURPLQNLQGWUDQVIHUVWRPRQHWDU\WUDQVIHUVGLGQRWLP
SURYHWKHVLWXDWLRQ2YFKDURYDet al.
320
132
27,1
15,1
42,7
100
100
100
0,409
Consumer price index (as
percentages of the previous
year)
Unemployment, thousand
individuals (at the end of year)
Annual average of employment
(as % of total):
Manufacturing sector
Agricultural sector
Service
5HDOLQFRPH 2
Real wage (monthly average,
Real pension (monthly average,
*LQLFRHIÀFLHQW
0,381
95,5
90,2
78,9
43,9
14,7
25,8
118
230
95,9
1995
0,387
103,6
96,6
95,8
44,6
14
24,8
100
121,8
96,6
1996
0,401
105,8
109,3
102,6
47,8
13,3
23
120
111,0
100,9
1997
0,399
63,2
72,4
73,4
48,6
13,7
22,2
110
184,4
95,1
1998
0,400
59,9
81,7
81,0
48,7
13,3
22,4
102
136,5
105,4
1999
0,399
78,62
90,0
83,2
48,6
13
22,6
77,1
120,0
108,3
2000
Year
0,396
99,9
107,7
90,5
49,0
12,3
22,7
89,1
119
110,0
2001
,QUHODWLRQWRWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU
,QUHODWLRQWRWKH\HDUWKHUHDOLQFRPHLQDPRXWHGWR
6RXUFH:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUV5XVVLDQ6WDWLVWLFDO<HDUERRNLVVXHV\HDUV
87,3
1994
GDP (as percentages of the
previous year)
Indicator
Table 1. 0DFURHFRQRPLFLQGLFDWRUV
0,397
102,3
124,4
106,2
50,1
11,8
22,2
97,9
115
105,1
2002
0,402
115,1
142,4
128,8
50,8
11
21,9
92,3
112
104,7
2003
0,407
113,3
153,3
144,2
54,1
11,2
22,2
101,6
111,7
107,3
2004
0,409
124,6
168,6
160,1
54,4
11,1
21,7
90,2
110,9
107,2
2005
0,416
105,14
113,44
110,23
55,2
10,6
21,2
89,0
109,0
106,4
2006
230 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240 231
2QH RI WKH RXWFRPHV RI HFRQRPLF UHFRYHU\ DW WKH HQG RI WKH V ZDV EHWWHU
IXQGLQJRIVRFLDOSURJUDPV1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHVKDUHRIVRFLDOVSHQGLQJLQWKHIHGHUDO
EXGJHWUHPDLQVUHODWLYHO\ORZUHDFKLQJRI*'3LQ7KHUHIRUHUHDOSHQ
VLRQVVWLOODFFRXQWHGIRURQO\RIWKHLUSUHUHIRUPOHYHOV
(FRQRPLFVWDELOL]DWLRQVWDUWLQJLQOHGWRLQFUHDVHLQUHDOLQFRPHV:DJHV
DQGSHQVLRQVJUHZDWDQDFFHOHUDWLQJUDWHH[FHHGLQJWKHUDWHRI*'3JURZWK7KH
VKDUHRIKRXVHKROGVZLWKLQFRPHVEHORZWKHVXEVLVWHQFHPLQLPXPGHFOLQHG)LJXUH
Figure 1. 2I¿FLDOHVWLPDWHVRIWKHOHYHODQGH[WHQWRISRYHUW\
40,0
35,0
7,0
5,9
6,0
5,3
30,0
4,8
5,0
5,0
4,4
25,0
4,0
3,8
3,6
20,0
3,5
3,3
3,1
2,8
3,0
15,0
2,6
2,1
2,1
2,0
1,6
10,0
1,3
1,0
5,0
33,5
31,5
22,4
24,7
22,0
20,7
23,3
28,3
28,9
27,3
24,2
20,4
17,6
17,7
15,2
13,3
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
0,0
0,0
poverty level, in % from total
population
deficiency of the cash income, in % from the total cash incomes of the
population
6RXUFH5RVVLMDYFLIUDK.UDWVWDWVE)HGHUDO¶QDMDVOX]KEDJRVXGDUVWYHQQRMVWDWLVWLNL0
6
,QWKHSHULRGWKHSURSRUWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOVOLYLQJEHORZWKHSRYHUW\OLQH
GH¿QHGE\WKHVWDWHZDVGHFUHDVLQJ7KLVKRZHYHUFDQEHSDUWLDOO\DWWULEXWHGWRWKH
FKDQJHVLQPHWKRGRORJ\RIWKHVWDWLVWLFDODJHQF\UDWKHUWKDQUHDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQ
ZHOOEHLQJ7KHWUHQGWRSRYHUW\DOOHYLDWLRQZDVKDOWHGDEUXSWO\E\WKH¿QDQFLDOFULVLV
RI7KHQH[WVLJQL¿FDQWGHFOLQHLQSRYHUW\OHYHOVVWDUWHGLQWKH\HDU+RZ
HYHUWKHWUXHGHFOLQHLVPDVNHGRZLQJWRDGRSWLRQRIDPRUH³H[SHQVLYH´VXUYLYDO
HTXLYDOHQW6WDUWLQJIURPZHREVHUYHVWHDG\GHFOLQHLQSRYHUW\OHYHOVZKLFK
SRLQWWRWKHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWRIHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWRQLQFRPHJURZWK2YFKD
URYD$FFRUGLQJWR2YFKDURYDWKHLQFRPHGH¿FLWRISRRUKRXVH
KROGVUHPDLQHGUHODWLYHO\VWDEOHDWWKHOHYHORI
232 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
Data and Methodology
:HXWLOLVHWKHLQIRUPDWLRQSURYLGHGE\WHQURXQGVRIWKH5XVVLD/RQJLWXGLQDO0RQL
WRULQJ6XUYH\5/06IRUWKHSHULRG
7KHREMHFWRIRXUVWXG\LVDKRXVHKROG,QWKHKRXVHKROGZHLGHQWLI\WKHKRXVHKROG
KHDG±DQLQGLYLGXDOZLWKWKHKLJKHVWLQFRPH)RUHDFKKRXVHKROGZHWDNHLQWRWKH
DFFRXQWWKHIROORZLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFVVL]HDQGVWUXFWXUHRIWKHKRXVHKROGQXPEHURI
FKLOGUHQDQGZRUNLQJPHPEHUVDQGW\SHRIVHWWOHPHQW
:HFRQVWUXFWDPHDVXUHRIKRXVHKROGGLVSRVDEOHLQFRPHDVDZHOIDUHLQGLFDWRU
:HDGMXVWWKHGLVSRVDEOHLQFRPHWRDFFRXQWIRUQRQPRQHWDU\VRXUFHVRILQFRPH
:HFRQVLGHUWKHKRXVHKROGWREHSRRULILWVGLVSRVDEOHLQFRPHLVOHVVWKDQ
RIWKHPHGLDQGLVSRVDEOHSHUFDSLWDLQFRPHRIWKHKRXVHKROGVLQRXUVDPSOH6XFK
DQDSSURDFKLVQRWIUHHRIPHWKRGRORJLFDOSLWIDOOVEXWLWDOORZVXVWRDQDO\VHSRYHUW\
WUHQGVXVLQJDFRQVLVWHQWGH¿QLWLRQRISRYHUW\
$SRSXODUFODVVRISRYHUW\LQGH[HVZKLFKSRVVHVVDQXPEHURIXVHIXOSURSHUWLHV
DQGDOORZDGGLWLYHDQDO\VLVDUHWKH)*7LQGH[HV)RVWHUet al.,QJHQHUDOIRUP
WKHLQGH[FDQEHZULWWHQDVIROORZV
FGT = 1
N
n
/ 8 Z -Z Y B
a
i
i=1
ZKHUHYi±SHUVRQDOLQFRPHN±VDPSOHVL]Hn±QXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOVEHORZSRY
HUW\OLQHZ±SRYHUW\OLQH
:KHQĮ ±LQGH[UHSUHVHQWVWKHSURSRUWLRQRIDSRSXODWLRQLQSRYHUW\Į ±
LVDQHVWLPDWHLQIURPSRYHUW\OLQHRIWKHDYHUDJHVKRUWIDOORILQGLYLGXDOLQFRPH
IURPWKHSRYHUW\OLQHĮ•±LQGH[JLYHVKLJKHUZHLJKWWRDODUJHVKRUWIDOORILQGL
YLGXDOLQFRPH
7KH)*7LQGH[LVDXVHIXOWRROIRUEXLOGLQJRIDSRYHUW\SUR¿OH/HWWKHSRSXOD
WLRQEHGLYLGHGLQWRmPXWXDOO\H[FOXVLYHSRSXODWLRQVXEJURXSVIRUPLQJWKHSRYHUW\
SUR¿OH7KHSRYHUW\SUR¿OHLVVLPSO\WKHOLVWRISRYHUW\PHDVXUHVPj for j=1,2,…m.
$JJUHJDWHSRYHUW\FDQEHZULWWHQDVWKHSRSXODWLRQZHLJKWHGPHDQRIWKHVXEJURXS
m
n
SRYHUW\PHDVXUHV P = 1 / n j Pj ZKHUH Pj = 1 / p ^ Z j, Yij hLVWKHSRYHUW\PHDVXUH
N j=1
n j i=1
for j¶WKVXEJURXSZLWKSRSXODWLRQnjKDYLQJLQFRPHYij for i=1,2,…nj DQGWKHWRWDO
SRSXODWLRQLV1 ȈQj 7KH p(Zj,Yij)LVWKHLQGLYLGXDOSRYHUW\PHDVXUHWDNLQJYDOXH]HUR
IRUQRQSRRU(Yij<Zj) DQGVRPHSRVLWLYHQXPEHUIRUSRRU
6XEJURXS GHFRPSRVDELOLW\ DOVR LPSOLHV WKDW DQ LQFRPH LPSURYHPHQW LQ RQH RI
WKH VXEJURXSV ZLOO QHFHVVDULO\ LPSURYH DJJUHJDWH SRYHUW\ LI WKH LQFRPHV LQ RWKHU
VXEJURXSVKDYHQRWFKDQJHG)RVWHUet al
j
KWWSZZZFSFXQFHGXSURMHFWVUOPV
N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240 233
Decomposition of the dynamics and structure of Russian poverty
2XUUHVXOWVEDVHGRQWKH5/06GDWDVHWDUHVRPHZKDWGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHUHVXOWVUH
SRUWHGHDUOLHU)LJXUH7KLVFRXOGEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWWKHSRYHUW\OLQHXVHG
LQWKHDQDO\VLVLQFOXGHVOHVVSRRULQGLYLGXDOVFRPSDUHGWRWKHSRYHUW\OLQHZKLFKLV
EDVHGRQWKHVXEVLVWHQFHHTXLYDOHQW0RUHRYHURXULQFRPHGH¿QLWLRQLVZLGHUFRP
SDUHGWRWKHRI¿FLDORQHDQGLVFRQVLVWHQWRYHUWLPH
7KH UHODWLYH SRYHUW\ OLQH ULVHV DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ SHULRG DQG
UHDFKHVWKHSHDNLQ$IWHUWKHSRYHUW\OHYHOVWDUWVWRGHFOLQHDWDQ
LQFUHDVLQJUDWH7KHSURSRUWLRQRISRRULQGLYLGXDOVZHQWXSIURPLQWR
LQZKHQLWGHFOLQHGWRLQWKH\HDU,QFRPHGH¿FLWUHDFKHG
LWVSHDNLQDQGDQGZHQWGRZQWRLQ¿JXUH
Figure 2. (VWLPDWHVRIWKHOHYHODQGH[WHQWRISRYHUW\5/06GDWDWKHSRYHUW\OLQH
IURPDYHUDJHSHUFDSLWDGLVSRVDEOHLQFRPH
25
2,4
20
2,6
2,3
2,3
2,4
3
2,6
2,3
2,2
2,1
1,8
2,5
2
15
1,5
10
1
5
0,5
17,9
17,5
20,5
20,1
18,4
19,4
17,7
18,1
15,7
15,4
1994
1995
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
0
poverty level, in % from total population
average shortfall of per capita disposable income from the poverty line
(in % from poverty line) from average per capita disposable income)
7KHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIJRYHUQPHQWVRFLDOSROLF\FRXOGEHPHDVXUHGE\LWVVXFFHVVLQ
KHOSLQJ WKH JURXSV ZLWK D KLJK SRYHUW\ ULVN WR HVFDSH SRYHUW\ RU LQ UHGXFLQJ LWV
LQFLGHQFHDQGVHYHULW\7KHGHYHORSPHQWRISRYHUW\WUHQGVRIWHQYDULHVDPRQJVXE
JURXSV7KHLPSDFWRQDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\RIHDFKVXEJURXSGHSHQGVRQLWVVL]HDVZHOO
DVWKHLQFLGHQFHDQGGHSWKRISRYHUW\LQHDFKVXEJURXS
7KHSRYHUW\SUR¿OHLQ5XVVLDYDULHVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHUHVLGHQFHDUHD$SSHQGL[
'XULQJWKHSHULRGXQGHULQYHVWLJDWLRQWKHKLJKHVWOHYHOVRISRYHUW\ZHUHIRXQGLQUX
UDODUHDV(YHQDFFRXQWLQJIRULQFRPHLQNLQGWKHOHYHORISRYHUW\LQUXUDODUHDVZDV
WKUHHWLPHVKLJKHUWKDQLQUHJLRQDOFHQWUHV
234 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
7KHOHYHORISRYHUW\LQUXUDODUHDVZHQWXSIURPLQWRLQ
$IWHUWKH\HDUSRYHUW\OHYHOVLQUXUDODUHDVVWDUWHGWRGHFOLQHUHDFKLQJWKHOHYHO
RI7KHVKDUHRIUXUDOSRSXODWLRQZHQWGRZQLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKH¶VDQG
WKHQERXQFHGEDFNWRLQ$VDUHVXOWUXUDOSRYHUW\KDGDODUJHLPSDFWRQ
DJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\'XULQJWKHSHULRGXQGHULQYHVWLJDWLRQWKHUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQRI
UXUDOSRYHUW\WRDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\ZHQWXSIURPWR
7KHDEVROXWHFRQWULEXWLRQRIXUEDQSRYHUW\WRDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\UHDFKHGLWVSHDN
LQWKH\HDUDQGUHPDLQHGSHUVLVWHQWO\KLJKXQWLOZKHQLWGURSSHGVKDUSO\
7KHLQLWLDOLQFUHDVHLQWKHLPSDFWRIXUEDQSRYHUW\RQDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\PD\EHH[
SODLQHGE\WKHSUHYDOHQFHRIZDJHDUUHDUVLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKH¶V
7KHUHODWLYHFRQWULEXWLRQRIFLWLHVWRDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\ZHQWGRZQIURPLQ
WRLQZKLOHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWRZQVGHFUHDVHGRQO\VOLJKWO\IURP
WR
7KHXUEDQUXUDOSRYHUW\JDSUHPDLQHGVWDEOHGXULQJWKHZKROHSHULRG+RZHYHU
GLYHUJLQJVRFLDOGHPRJUDSKLFWUHQGVOHGWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHJDSLQWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ
WRSRYHUW\EHWZHHQUXUDODQGXUEDQDUHDV7KHJDSZDVVPDOOHVWLQDQGLQFUHDVHG
GUDPDWLFDOO\DIWHUZDUGV
7KHDQDO\VLVRIWKH)*7LQGH[IRUĮ DQGĮ VKRZHGWKDWWKHUHODWLYHFRQ
WULEXWLRQRILQFRPHGH¿FLWLQUXUDODUHDVGLGQRWFKDQJHPXFKEXWWKHYDOXHVZHUH
KLJKHUFRPSDUHGWRUHVXOWVIRXQGIRUĮ ZKLOHUHVXOWVIRUXUEDQDUHDVLQGLFDWHWKH
RSSRVLWHUHODWLRQVKLS7KLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWSRYHUW\LQUXUDODUHDVZDVGHHSHUDQGPRUH
VHYHUH6LQFHLQFLWLHVWKHVKDUHRIWKHSRRUGHFOLQHGEXWWKHGHSWKDQGVHYHULW\
RISRYHUW\LQFUHDVHG7KLVSKHQRPHQRQFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHJURZWKLQLQFRPH
RILQGLYLGXDOVZKRZHUHMXVWEHORZWKHSRYHUW\OLQHZKLOHPDUJLQDOL]HGJURXSVUH
PDLQHGXQDIIHFWHG
7RDODUJHH[WHQWWKHJDSEHWZHHQUXUDODQGXUEDQDUHDVLQSRYHUW\SUR¿OHVPD\EH
H[SODLQHGE\VRFLRGHPRJUDSKLFVWUXFWXUH7KXVLWLVZDUUDQWHGWRSUHVHQWGHFRPSR
VLWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVRFLRGHPRJUDSKLFW\SHRIWKHKRXVHKROG
7KHDQDO\VLVRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHRIKRXVHKROGVVXSSRUWVWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOYLHZWKDW
WKHPRVWSRRUDUHWKHVLQJOHSDUHQWKRXVHKROGVWKHSRYHUW\OHYHOLQWKDWJURXSLQ
FUHDVHG IURP LQ WR LQ $SSHQGL[ 7KH VKDUH RI WKHVH
KRXVHKROGVWKRXJKLVUHODWLYHO\VPDOODQGUHPDLQHGVWDEOH±DERXWRIWKHWRWDO
QXPEHURIKRXVHKROGV7KHVHFRQGSRRUHVWJURXSLVPDUULHGFRXSOHVZLWKFKLOGUHQ
DQGKRXVHKROGVZLWKVHYHUDOJHQHUDWLRQVRIUHODWLYHV7KHSRYHUW\LQWKLVJURXSKDV
EHHQGHFUHDVLQJGXULQJWKHSHULRGRILQYHVWLJDWLRQEXWWKHVKDUHRIKRXVHKROGVZLWK
WZRFKLOGUHQZDVGHFUHDVLQJZKLOHWKHVKDUHRI³PXOWLJHQHUDWLRQDO´KRXVHKROGVZDV
LQFUHDVLQJ
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOH[SODQDWLRQVIRUWKHREVHUYHGSKHQRPHQD'HVSLWHWKHJURZWK
LQ QRPLQDO LQFRPHV WKH OLYLQJ VWDQGDUGV RI 5XVVLDQ KRXVHKROGV UHPDLQ UHODWLYHO\
ORZ2QHRIWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIORZOLYLQJVWDQGDUGLVWKHIDFWWKDW\RXQJIDPLOLHV
N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240 235
RIWHQUHVLGHZLWKWKHLUSDUHQWVGXHWRODFNRIIXQGVIRUSXUFKDVLQJRUUHQWLQJWKHLURZQ
KRXVLQJ,QWKHSUHVHQFHRIWZRDEOHERGLHGFRXSOHVLQDKRXVHKROGHYHQWKHSUHV
HQFHRIFKLOGUHQLVXQOLNHO\WRUHGXFHWKHSHUFDSLWDLQFRPHVEHORZWKHSRYHUW\OHYHO
,QRWKHUFDVHVDUHWLUHGIHPDOHPHPEHURIWKHKRXVHKROGRIWHQWDNHVFDUHRIFKLOGUHQ
ZKLOHWKHPRWKHUFDQFRQWLQXHWRZRUN
0RUHRYHULQWKHSHULRGIURPWRFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHSUHVHQFHRIZDJH
DUUHDUVDQGKLJKXQHPSOR\PHQWSHQVLRQHUVZHUHRIWHQWKHPDLQVRXUFHRILQFRPH
LQWKHPXOWLJHQHUDWLRQDOKRXVHKROGV7KLVREVHUYDWLRQLVLQGLUHFWO\VXSSRUWHGE\WKH
IDFWWKDWGXULQJWKH¿QDQFLDOFULVLVWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRSRYHUW\DQGLWVH[WHQWGH
FUHDVHGLQPXOWLJHQHUDWLRQDOKRXVHKROGVEXWLQFUHDVHGIRUWKHFRXSOHVZLWKFKLOGUHQ
$IWHU WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR SRYHUW\ RI WKH FRXSOHV ZLWK FKLOGUHQ GHFUHDVHG
ZKLOH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI RWKHU W\SHV RI KRXVHKROGV UHPDLQHG UHODWLYHO\ FRQVWDQW
)URPRXUSHUVSHFWLYHWKHVHIDFWVLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQRIUHVRXUFHVDOORZV
PXOWLJHQHUDWLRQDOKRXVHKROGVWRRSWLPL]HFRQVXPSWLRQDQGUHGXFHWKHULVNDQGH[WHQW
RISRYHUW\6LQJOHPHPEHUKRXVHKROGVDQGFRXSOHVZLWKRXWFKLOGUHQZHUHOHVVSURQH
WRSRYHUW\7KHOHYHORISRYHUW\LQWKHVHKRXVHKROGVLVXSWRIRXUWLPHVORZHUWKDQLQ
RWKHUJURXSVZKLOHWKHLUVKDUHUHPDLQHGUHODWLYHO\VWDEOH
'XULQJ WKH SHULRG XQGHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ ZH REVHUYH D VXEVWDQWLDO LQFUHDVH LQ WKH
QXPEHURIKRXVHKROGVZLWKRXWFKLOGUHQDQGKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHFKLOG7KHVKDUHRI
KRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRFKLOGUHQKDVH[KLELWHGDVLJQL¿FDQWGHFUHDVHZKLOHWKHSURSRU
WLRQRIWKHKRXVHKROGVZLWKWKUHHDQGPRUHFKLOGUHQKDVGHFUHDVHGRQO\PDUJLQDOO\
7KHSRYHUW\LQGH[FOHDUO\LQGLFDWHVDQLQFUHDVHLQSRYHUW\ZLWKDQLQFUHDVHLQWKH
QXPEHURIFKLOGUHQSHUKRXVHKROG$SSHQGL[0RUHRYHUWKHHFRQRPLFGRZQWXUQ
LV FORVHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVH LQ SRYHUW\ RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK WZR RU PRUH
FKLOGUHQ
7KHOHYHORISRYHUW\IRUWKHKRXVHKROGZLWKRQHFKLOGZHQWXSIURPLQ
WRLQWKH\HDU%HWZHHQWKH\HDUDQGZHREVHUYHDGHFUHDVH
LQWKHSRYHUW\UDWHWR$WWKHVDPHWLPHWKHVKDUHRIKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHFKLOG
LQFUHDVHGIURPWR,WLVDOVRLQWHUHVWLQJWRQRWHWKDWWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWR
DJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\RIWKHKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHFKLOGZDVVPDOOHUWKDQWKDWRIKRXVH
KROGVZLWKWZRFKLOGUHQIURPWR+RZHYHUDIWHUWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWR
DJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\RIWKHKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHFKLOGVWDUWHGWRLQFUHDVHDQGH[FHHGHG
WKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKHKRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRFKLOGUHQ
7KHVKDUHRIWKHSRRUURVHDPRQJKRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRFKLOGUHQGXULQJWKHHFR
QRPLFFULVLVRIDQGZHQWEDFNWRWKHOHYHORILQ7KHOHYHORISRY
HUW\IRUKRXVHKROGVZLWKWKUHHRUPRUHFKLOGUHQLQFUHDVHGIURPWRLQWKH
SHULRGDQGWKDQGHFOLQHGWRLQ
,QWKHSHULRGSULRUWRWKHODUJHVWFRQWULEXWLRQWRDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\ZDVPDGH
E\KRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRFKLOGUHQ+RZHYHUDVWKHQXPEHURIVXFKKRXVHKROGVGH
FOLQHGWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\RIKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHFKLOGDQGFKLOG
236 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
OHVVKRXVHKROGLQFUHDVHG7KHLPSDFWRIVLQJOHSDUHQWKRXVHKROGRQDJJUHJDWHSRY
HUW\LVWKHVPDOOHVW7KHLUFRQWULEXWLRQGHFOLQHGIURPLQWRLQ
'HSWKDQGVHYHULW\RISRYHUW\GHYHORSHGLQOLQHZLWKWKHOHYHORISRYHUW\LQDOO
JURXSV+RZHYHUIRUKRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRRUPRUHFKLOGUHQWKHUHODWLYHLPSDFWRQ
DJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\LVKLJKHUZKHQĮ DQGĮ LQWKH)*7LQGH[FRPSDUHGWRWKH
FDVHZKHQĮ 'R ZH REVHUYH DQ HIIHFW RI JRYHUQPHQW VRFLDO SROLF\ RQ WKH SRYHUW\ OHYHOV RI
KRXVHKROGVZLWKFKLOGUHQ"
:KHQ ZH H[DPLQHG 5XVVLDQ PDFURHFRQRPLF WUHQGV ZH SRLQWHG RXW UHODWLYHO\
VPDOOOHYHORIFKLOGDQGPDWHUQLW\WUDQVIHUVGXULQJWKHSHULRGRILQYHVWLJDWLRQ1HYHU
WKHOHVVRQWKHDJJUHJDWHOHYHOWKHVHWUDQVIHUVFRXOGVWLOODIIHFWWKHSRYHUW\WUHQGVRI
KRXVHKROGVZLWKFKLOGUHQ$FFRUGLQJWRRI¿FLDOVWDWLVWLFVWKHUHDOJURZWKRIFKLOGDQG
PDWHUQLW\WUDQVIHUVDPRXQWHGWRLQLQLQ±
LQDQG±LQ5
7KLVWUHQGGRHVQRWFRUUHODWHZLWKWKHSRYHUW\OHYHOVRIKRXVHKROGVZLWKFKLOGUHQ
LQGLFDWLQJWKHODFNRIHIIHFWRIWKHVHWUDQVIHUVRQSRYHUW\OHYHOVRIWDUJHWHGJURXSV
7KHSULPDU\UHDVRQIRUFKLOGSRYHUW\OLHVLQWKHIDFWWKDWDIWHUWKHELUWKRIWKHFKLOG
PRWKHUVFHDVHZRUNIRUVHYHUDO\HDUV
+RXVHKROGVZLWKRQHHPSOR\HGPHPEHUKDGDKLJKULVNRIEHLQJSRRU,Q
WKHLUVKDUHZDVDQGLQ$SSHQGL[
7KHORZHVWLQFLGHQFHVRISRYHUW\DUHDPRQJKRXVHKROGVZLWKWKUHHPHPEHUVHP
SOR\HGLWLVVRPHZKDWKLJKHULQKRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRZRUNLQJPHPEHUV+RZHYHU
ERWKJURXSVH[KLELWHGDGHFOLQLQJULVNRISRYHUW\DIWHU%HIRUHWKHULVNRI
SRYHUW\IRUKRXVHKROGVFRQVLVWLQJRIQRQHPSOR\HGPHPEHUVZDVVPDOOHUWKDQWKDW
RIKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHZRUNLQJPHPEHU%\WKHHQGRIWKHVWXG\SHULRGWKHSRYHUW\
ULVNZDVWKHVDPHIRUERWKJURXSV
7KHODWWHU¿QGLQJFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWKRXVHKROGVZKHUHDOOPHPEHUV
DUH QRQHPSOR\HG DUH XVXDOO\ SHQVLRQHUV¶ KRXVHKROGV ZKLOH KRXVHKROGV ZLWK RQH
HPSOR\HG PHPEHU SUHGRPLQDQWO\ FRQVLVW RI HPSOR\HG PDOH KRXVHZLIH DQG VPDOO
FKLOGUHQ'XULQJWKHVWKHSHQVLRQEHQH¿WVSURYLGHGORZEXWVWDEOHVWDQGDUGVRI
OLYLQJDOORZLQJSHQVLRQHUVWREHEHWWHURIIWKDQKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHHPSOR\HGPHP
EHU6WDUWLQJIURPWKHUDWHRIZDJHJURZWKH[FHHGHGWKDWRISHQVLRQV+RXVH
KROGVZLWKRQHHPSOR\HGPHPEHUDUHQRORQJHUSRRUHUWKDQKRXVHKROGVZKHUHDOO
PHPEHUVDUHQRQHPSOR\HG
:HREVHUYHWKHVSLNHLQSRYHUW\OHYHOLWVGHSWKDQGVHYHULW\DPRQJKRXVHKROGV
ZLWKHPSOR\HGPHPEHUVGXULQJWKH\HDUV7KHVHZHUHWKH\HDUVRIKLJK
ZDJHDUUHDUVDQG¿QDQFLDOFULVLV
³6RFLDO¶QRHSROR]KHQLHLXURYHQ¶]KL]QLQDVHOHQLMD5RVVLMX´5RVVWDW
N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240 237
,WLVDOVRLQWHUHVWLQJWRFRPSDUHKRXVHKROGVZKHUHDOOPHPEHUVDUHQRQHPSOR\HG
WR KRXVHKROGV ZKHUH WZR PHPEHUV DUH HPSOR\HG 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI
KRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRZRUNLQJPHPEHUVZDVDEVROXWHO\V\PPHWULFDOWRWKHGHFOLQH
LQWKHQXPEHURIKRXVHKROGVZKHUHDOOPHPEHUVDUHQRQHPSOR\HG3HQVLRQDUUHDUV
DQGGHFOLQLQJOLYLQJVWDQGDUGVPDGHSHQVLRQHUVORRNIRUDMRE$IWHUZHREVHUYH
SDUDOOHOWUHQGVLQWKHSURSRUWLRQVRIWKHVHKRXVHKROGVDQGVWURQJGLYHUJHQFHLQWKH
\HDU
+RXVHKROGVZLWKRQHHPSOR\HGPHPEHUPDNHWKHKLJKHVWFRQWULEXWLRQWRDJJUH
JDWHSRYHUW\&RPPRQO\WKHVHDUHKRXVHKROGVFRQVLVWLQJRIUHODWLYHO\\RXQJLQGLYLG
XDOVZLWKFKLOGUHQ+RZHYHUWKHGHSWKDQGVHYHULW\RISRYHUW\LQWKLVJURXSLVFORVH
WRWKHRWKHUJURXSV+RXVHKROGVZLWKWZRHPSOR\HGPHPEHUVDOVRPDNHDKLJKFRQ
WULEXWLRQWRDJJUHJDWHSRYHUW\7KHLPSDFWRIWKLVJURXSWHQGVWRGLPLQLVKRYHUWLPH
0RUHRYHUWKHGHSWKDQGVHYHULW\RISRYHUW\WHQGWRGHFUHDVHIDVWHUDPRQJKRXVHKROGV
ZLWK WZR HPSOR\HG PHPEHUV7KH VPDOOHVW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR DJJUHJDWH SRYHUW\ ZDV
PDGHE\KRXVHKROGVZLWKPRUHWKDQWKUHHHPSOR\HGPHPEHUV)LQDOO\KRXVHKROGV
ZKHUHQRQHRIWKHPHPEHUVDUHHPSOR\HGWHQGWRLQFUHDVHWKHLULPSDFWRQSRYHUW\
7KHGHSWKDQGVHYHULW\RISRYHUW\LQWKLVJURXSWHQGWRLQFUHDVHIDVWHUFRPSDUHGWR
WKHQXPEHURIWKHSRRU
Conclusion: determinants of poverty and policy proposals
:HVWDUWHGWKHDQDO\VLVZLWKWKH\HDU$WWKDWWLPHWKHUHIRUPVLQLWLDWHGGXULQJ
WKH V EURXJKW OHYHOV RI SRYHUW\ DQG LQHTXDOLW\ WR D VRFLDOO\ LQWROHUDEOH OHYHO
+RZHYHUWKHVLWXDWLRQUHPDLQHGUHODWLYHO\VWDEOHZKLFKLQGLFDWHVWKDW5XVVLDQKRXVH
KROGVDGDSWHGWRWKHFRPSOH[HQYLURQPHQWRIHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVDQGOHDUQHGWRVXU
YLYH
7KHUHYLHZRIWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFWUHQGVIURPWRLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH
VRFLDOSROLF\VKRZHGWKDWWKHVRFLDOSROLF\ZDVLQDGHTXDWH7KHSRYHUW\OHYHOIRO
ORZHGPDFURHFRQRPLFWUHQGVDQGRQO\VPDOOÀXFWXDWLRQVRIWKHYDOXHVRIWKHLQGH[
HVSHFLDOO\WUDQVIHUVHQVLWLYHLQGH[HVVXFKDV)*7IRUĮ FDSWXUHGWKHLPSDFWRI
ZDJHDQGSHQVLRQLQGH[DWLRQRQWKHOHYHORISRYHUW\IRUVSHFL¿FJURXSVRIKRXVH
KROGV:HPDQDJHGWRFODULI\DQGDGGWKHIROORZLQJSRLQWVWRWKHDQDO\VLVRI5XVVLDQ
SRYHUW\
7KH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SRYHUW\ SUR¿OH DPRQJ UHVLGHQWLDO DUHDV FRQ¿UPHG WKDW WKH
KLJKHVWOHYHORISRYHUW\LVDPRQJUXUDOKRXVHKROGV5XUDOSRYHUW\LVDOVRGHHSHUDQG
PRUHVHYHUHWKDQLQWKHFLWLHV,QWHUUHODWLRQRIWKHGHPRJUDSKLFDQGPLJUDWLRQSUR
FHVVHVDPRQJGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIUHVLGHQWLDODUHDVUHVXOWHGLQWKHIDFWWKDWWKHORZHVW
JDSLQWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRSRYHUW\ZDVUHJLVWHUHGLQDIWHUWKLVSHULRGZHREVHUYH
DGLYHUJLQJWUHQGLQWKHSRYHUW\FRQWULEXWLRQDQGLQFUHDVLQJSRYHUW\JDS
,QWKHVLWXDWLRQZKHQJRYHUQPHQWZDVLQFDSDEOHRIGHYHORSLQJHIIHFWLYHPHFKD
QLVPVRIKRXVHKROGVRFLDOSURWHFWLRQKRXVHKROGVGHYHORSHGWKHLURZQPHFKDQLVPV
238 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
RISRYHUW\DOOHYLDWLRQ$PRQJVXFKPHKDPLVPVDUHDGHFUHDVHLQWKHIHUWLOLW\UDWH
ZKLFKUHVXOWHGLQWKHLQFUHDVHGQXPEHURIKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHRUQRFKLOGUHQDQG
IHZHUKRXVHKROGVZLWKWZRDQGPRUHFKLOGUHQ$QRWKHUREVHUYHGWHQGHQF\LVWKHLQ
FUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURIHPSOR\HGPHPEHUVLQWKHKRXVHKROG
,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHSUHVHQFHRIWKUHHRUPRUHFKLOGUHQLQWKHKRXVHKROG
UHVXOWVLQKLJKHUOHYHOVRISRYHUW\+RZHYHUWKHVKDUHRIVXFKKRXVHKROGVUHPDLQHG
UHODWLYHO\VWDEOHDQGGLGQRWH[KLELWDODUJHGHFOLQHFRPSDUHGWRWKHVKDUHRIKRXVH
KROGVZLWKWZRFKLOGUHQ7KHOLNHO\H[SODQDWLRQRIWKLV¿QGLQJLVWKDWWKHGHFLVLRQWR
KDYHPRUHWKDQWKUHHFKLOGUHQLVGLFWDWHGE\QRQHFRQRPLFIDFWRUV
References
%URZQ$7KH5XVVLDQ&ULVLV%HJLQQLQJRIWKH(QGRU(QGRIWKH%HJLQQLQJ"Post-Soviet
AffairsSS
%XFKV7)LQDQFLDO&ULVLVLQWKH5XVVLDQ)HGHUDWLRQ$UHWKH5XVVLDQV/HDUQLQJWR7DQJR"
Economics of TransitionSS
)RVWHU-(-*UHHU(7KRUEHFNH$&ODVVRI'HFRPSRVDEOH3RYHUW\,QGLFHV(FRQRPHWULFD
SS
*XVWDIVVRQ%DQG1LYRUR]KNLQD/5HODWLYH3RYHUW\LQ7ZR(JDOLWDULDQ6RFLHWLHVD&RPSDULVRQ%HWZHHQ7DJDQURJ5XVVLD'XULQJWKH6RYLHW(UDDQG6ZHGHQThe Review of Income
and Wealth
*XVWDIVVRQ % DQG 1LYRUR]KNLQD / &KDQJHV LQ 5XVVLDQ SRYHUW\ GXULQJ WUDQVLWLRQ The
Economics of Transition
*XVWDIVVRQ % DQG 1LYRUR]KNLQD / +RZ DQG :K\ 7UDQVLWLRQ PDGH ,QFRPH ,QHTXDOLW\
,QFUHDVHLQ8UEDQ5XVVLDD/RFDO6WXG\Journal of Comparative Economics
0LODQRYLF%´,QFRPH,QHTXDOLW\DQG3RYHUW\GXULQJWKH7UDQVLWLRQIURP3ODQQHGWR0DUNHW(FRQRP\µ:RUOG%DQN:DVKLQJWRQ'&
2YFKDURYD/(7XUXQVHYDQG,.RUFKDJLQD,QGLFDWRUVRI3RYHUW\LQ7UDQVLWLRQDO5XVVLD
EERC Working Paper 1R0RVFRZ((5&
2YFKDURYD/7HVOLXF(6HQVLWLYLW\RISRYHUW\DQGLQHTXDOLW\VWDWLVWLFVWRDOWHUQDWLYHGHÀQLWLRQVRIKRXVHKROGZHOIDUH,OOXVWUDWLRQXVLQJWKH1REXVVXUYH\0RVFRZ,,63
5DYDOOLRQ03RYHUW\&RPSDULVRQV$*XLGHWR&RQFHSWVDQG0HWKRGV/606:RUNLQJ
SDSHU:DVKLQJWRQ'&:RUOG%DQN
5DYDOOLRQ0DQG0+XSSL0HDVXULQJ&KDQJHVLQ3RYHUW\$0HWKRGRORJLFDO&DVH6WXG\
RI,QGRQHVLD'XULQJDQ$GMXVWPHQW3HULRG:RUOG%DQN(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ 5XVVLDQ)HGHUDWLRQ5HGXFLQJ3RYHUW\WKURXJK*URZWKDQG6RFLDO3ROLF\5HIRUP 3RYHUW\
$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWRQ5XVVLD1R:DVKLQJWRQ'&:RUOG%DQN
N.G. KUZNETCOV,
OV L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240 239
Appendix 1. Decomposition
according to area of residence
Apendix 2. Decomposition
according to household type
,QGH[)*7њ ,QGH[)*7њ 0,400
0,350
0,350
0,300
0,300
0,250
0,250
0,200
0,200
0,150
0,150
0,100
0,100
0,050
0,050
0,000
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Regional centre
City
Urban type settlement
Village
Single adult
Two with children
Multigenerational families
Proportion of individuals
Two adults without children
One adult with children
Proportion of individuals
0,450
0,500
0,400
0,450
0,400
0,350
0,350
0,300
0,300
0,250
0,250
0,200
0,200
0,150
0,150
0,100
0,100
0,050
0,050
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0,000
1994
1995
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Single adult
Two with children
Multigenerational families
Regional centre
City
Urban type settlement
Village
Two adults without children
One adult with children
Absolute contribution of poverty
0,100
0,120
0,090
0,100
0,080
0,080
0,070
0,060
0,060
0,050
0,040
0,040
0,020
0,030
0,000
0,020
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
0,010
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Regional centre
City
Urban type settlement
Village
Single adult
Two with children
Multigenerational families
Two adults without children
One adult with children
240 N.G. KUZNETCOV, L.I. NIVOROZHKINA, South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 2 (2010) 227-240
Appendix 3. Decomposition according
to the number of children
Appendix 4. Decomposition according
to the number of working members
,QGH[)*7њ ,QGH[)*7њ 0,250
0,300
0,250
0,200
0,200
0,150
0,150
0,100
0,100
0,050
0,050
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
No children
One child
Two children
Three and more children
Proportion of individuals
0,000
1994
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2004
2005
Nobody works
Two working
One working
Three and more working
Proportion of individuals
0,450
0,450
0,400
0,400
0,350
0,350
0,300
0,300
0,250
0,250
0,200
0,200
0,150
0,150
0,100
1995
0,100
0,050
0,050
0,000
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1994
No children
One child
Two children
Three and more children
Absolute contribution of poverty
1996
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
Nobody works
One working
Two working
Three and more working
Absolute contribution of poverty
0,090
0,090
0,080
0,080
0,070
0,070
0,060
0,060
0,050
0,050
0,040
1995
0,040
0,030
0,030
0,020
0,020
0,010
0,010
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
No children
One child
Two children
Three and more children
0,000
1994 1995 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Nobody works
One working
Two working
Three and more working