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Volume
Volume39,
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No.12
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2016 House Ratings
Pure Toss-up (2D, 10R)
az 1 (open; Kirkpatrick, d)
NH 1 (Guinta, r)
fl 18 (open; murphy, d)
NV 3 (open; Heck, r)
fl 26 (curbelo, r)
Ny 22 (open; Hanna, r)
ia 3 (young, r)
Ny 24 (Katko, r)
il 10 (dold, r)
tX 23 (Hurd, r)
me 2 (poliquin, r)
Wi 8 (open; ribble, r)
Toss-up/Tilt Dem (3R, 2D) Toss-up/Tilt GOP (4R)
IA 1 (Blum, R)
co 6 (coffman, r)
MN 2 (Open; Kline, R)
mi 7 (Walberg, r)
Ne 2 (ashford, d)
Ny 1 (zeldin, r)
Ny 3 (open; israel, d)
pa 8 (open; fitzpatrick, r)
NV 4 (Hardy, R)
Lean Democratic
Lean Republican (3R)
mi 1 (open; benishek, r)
Ny 19 (open; Gibson, r)
Va 10 (comstock, r)
Democrat Favored (2D)
Republican Favored (6R)
ca 7 (bera, d)
az 2 (mcsally, r)
mN 8 (Nolan, dfl)
ca 21 (Valadao, r)
ca 25 (Knight, r)
fl 7 (mica, r)
NJ 5 (Garrett, r)
ut 4 (love, r)#
Safe Democrat (3R)
Safe Republican (1D)
FL 10 (Open; Webster, R)
FL 2 (Open; Graham, D)
FL 13 (Jolly, R)
VA 4 (Open; Forbes, R)
Takeovers in Italics
# moved benefiting Democrats,
* moved benefiting Republicans
GOP
DeM
114th congress
247
188
currently safe
220
184
competitive
26
6
Needed for majority
218
Two More House
Incumbents Fall, But It’s
Not What You Think
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Republican Reps. Renee Ellmers of North
Carolina and Randy Forbes of Virginia lost
GOP primaries within the last couple of
weeks, but it’s not because we’re having a
throw-the-bums-out election.
While Donald Trump rode a wave of
anti-Establishment sentiment to the GOP presidential nomination, his
supporters haven’t simultaneously thrown out Members of Congress in
primaries. Through the end of May, every Republican incumbent seeking
GOP DeM
re-election won his or her primary.
114th
congress
Redistricting was the root cause of defeat for both Ellmers and Forbes.
54
Court decisions forced
Republican Legislators in each state to redraw
46
part of the congressional map before this year’s elections, dividing up
Not up this cycle
Ellmers’ 2nd District
30 and making Forbes’ 4th District close to unwinnable
for a Republican.36
Ellmers faced criticism from conservative groups who believed she
currently safe
is too cozy with party
14 leadership and betrayed them on the abortion
issue, but she was8essentially forced to run for re-election in a redrawn
district
where she represented less than 20 percent of the population.
competitive
And she ran against
10 fellow Rep. George Holding, who represented over
2 2nd District.
60 percent of the new
Holding won the June 7 primary with 53 percent followed by Ellmers
(24 percent) and perennial candidate Greg Brannon (23 percent).
In Virginia, Forbes’ 4th District was redrawn to be heavily
Democratic, so the congressman decided to run for re-election in the 2nd
District, where GOP Rep. Scott Rigell isn’t running for re-election. Rigell
rented Forbes his former headquarters on First Colonial Road and sold
him his email lists of supporters, according to The Virginian-Pilot.
But Forbes hadn’t represented any of the 2nd District before and he
lost the June 14 primary, 53-41 percent, to state Delegate Scott Taylor, a
36-year-old retired Navy SEAL who currently represents Virginia Beach
in the Legislature. As of late May, Forbes spent over $1 million on the
race while Taylor spent $142,000.
Forbes and Ellmers are the second and third Members of Congress
to lose primaries this year. The first was Philadelphia Democrat Chaka
Fattah, who was indicted on 29 counts of racketeering and fraud.
Elsewhere in Virginia, Democrat Don McEachin won his party’s
primary with 75 percent in what was Forbes’ 4th District. The state
senator is a prohibitive favorite in November and is likely to be a
Member of Congress next year.
RothenbergGonzales.com
Why Won’t Bernie Go Away?
2016 Presidential Ratings
(Electoral Votes)
By Nathan L. Gonzales
In a race full of surprises, I’m surprised that Democrats are surprised
that Bernie Sanders isn’t quite ready to exit quietly stage left from the
presidential contest.
The Vermont senator took one step closer
to bowing out on Thursday night, but stopped
short of a concession.
“The major political task that we face in
the next five months is to make certain that
Donald Trump is defeated and defeated badly,” Sanders said, “And I
personally intend to begin my role in that process in a very short period
of time.”
The crux of the argument from the party establishment is that Sanders
should step aside and get behind Hillary Clinton for the sake of the
Democratic Party. But there was always one significant snag to that
logic—Sanders isn’t a Democrat.
Of course, the senator from Vermont is running for the Democratic
nomination, but he’s not really a Democrat. He’s an independent. And
to ask him to suddenly put the Democratic Party’s interests ahead of
his own, when he’s at the peak of his political career, seems like wishful
thinking.
Sanders has been talking about the same issues for decades, decrying
the influence of outside money, Wall Street and big banks. Now,
voters are finally listening to him. He has the largest stage and loudest
microphone he has ever had to deliver the populist message that he’s
had for years.
As long as the media keeps covering him, there is little incentive for
Sanders to drop out.
It’s hard for Democratic leaders to threaten Sanders since he’s not part
of the traditional party structure and didn’t rely on party leaders to get
him to this point.
So as the Washington, D.C. primary brought the Democratic primaries
to a close, with Clinton leading Sanders in votes, pledged delegates
(2,219-1,832, according to the Associated Press), and superdelegates (58149), Democrats are still waiting for Sanders to concede.
Pure Toss-up (15)
North carolina (15)
Toss-up/Tilt Democratic (83) Toss-up/Tilt Republican
colorado (9)
ohio (18)
florida (29)
Wisconsin (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
Lean Democratic (32)
Lean Republican (0)
iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
pennsylvania (20)
Democrat Favored (38)
Republican Favored (48)
michigan (16)
arizona (11)
minnesota (10)
Georgia (16)
New Mexico (5)
indiana (11)
oregon (7)
missouri (10)
Safe Democratic (179)
Safe Republican (143)
california (55)
rhode island (4) alabama (9)
oklahoma (7)
connecticut (7)
Vermont (3)
south carolina (9)
delaware (3)
Washington (12) arkansas (6)
alaska (3)
south dakota (3)
dc (3)
idaho (4)
tennessee (11)
Hawaii (4)
Kansas (6)
Texas (38)
illinois (20)
Kentucky (8)
utah (6)
maine (4)
louisiana (8)
West Virginia (5)
maryland (10)
mississippi (6)
Wyoming (3)
massachusetts (11)
montana (3)
New Jersey (14)
Nebraska (5)
New york (29)
North dakota (3)
270 needed to win
@InsideElections
facebook.com/RPRPolitics
Nathan L. Gonzales
Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@nathanlgonzales
Stuart Rothenberg
Founding Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@stupolitics
Will Taylor
Production Artist
The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is a nonpartisan publication that analyzes, handicaps and reports on U.S. House, Senate,
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June 17, 2016
RothenbergGonzales.com
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
California Turns the Page to the General Elections
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Four months away from the Iowa caucuses on the
calendar, California seemed to have a negligible chance of
playing a part in the presidential nominating contests. But
just as it looked like Republicans and Democrats might fight
it out all the way to June 7, Donald Trump locked up the GOP
nomination and Hillary Clinton was in firm control on the
Democratic side.
But primaries in at least a dozen down-ballot races have
implications for the fall as general election matchups
solidified and some likely new Members are identified in
safe seats.
Votes are still being counted over a week later, but many
of the outcomes are clear.
Senate
Next to the presidential race, the U.S. Senate race was the next
biggest contest on the ballot.
Unsurprisingly, state Attorney General Kamala Harris finished
first with over 40 percent followed by Southern California Rep.
Loretta Sanchez at 18 percent. Republican Duf Sundheim finished
third with 8 percent, which means two Democrats move on to the
general election in November.
It was a stunningly poor performance for the Republican Party.
A dozen candidates combined to receive about 20 percent of the
vote. California is a heavily Democratic state, but Republican Carly
Fiorina received 42 percent in her 2010 challenge to Democratic Sen. Barbara
Boxer, proving that there are some Republicans in the Golden State.
Harris is the darling of the Democratic Establishment and the
preferred replacement for Boxer, who is not seeking re-election. But
Sanchez has an opportunity to persuade Republicans to join her cause.
She needs to demonstrate a level of credibility to her campaign that has
been absent thus far.
A June 7-10 survey by USC Dornsife for the Los Angeles Times showed
Harris with a 47-22 percent advantage over Sanchez in the general
election. The poll also showed nearly two-thirds of Republican voters
would not vote in the Senate race, instead of being a contingency of
swing voters without a nominee from their own party.
Republicans haven’t won a Senate race since Pete Wilson’s re-election
in 1988. The party’s last chance might be in 2018, when Democratic Sen.
Dianne Feinstein may not seek re-election and the national mood could
favor Republicans if President Hillary Clinton is in the White House. In
that scenario, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer will get plenty of phone
calls to run for the Senate or governor.
For now, Harris, who identifies as both African American and Asian
American, is on pace to join the Senate next year, giving Democrats some
diversity in their caucus.
2nd District
Northern Coast - Eureka; Marin County
Twenty-five-year-old environmental activist Erin Schrode received
national attention for her candidacy with write-ups in Glamour, Marie
Claire, Teen Vogue, and various Jewish publications, but the young
rothenbergGonzales.com
Northern
California’s
Congressional
Districts
Democrat received
just 8 percent of
the vote. She never translated that
attention into campaign cash, raising just
$48,000 through May 21.
Democratic Rep. Jared Huffman finished first with 69 percent and is
the prohibitive favorite over Republican Dale Mensing (16 percent) in the
general election. The seat is Safe for Democrats.
7th District
Sacramento suburbs - Elk Grove, Citrus Heights
Democratic Rep. Ami Bera topped Sacramento County Sheriff Scott
Jones, 53-47 percent, in a preview of the general election since they were
the only two candidates on the primary ballot.
Bera won close races in 2012 and 2014, and was regarded as one of the
few vulnerable incumbent Democrats heading into the cycle.
The congressman’s re-election got even more difficult when his
Continued on page 4
June 17, 2016
3
California: Bera’s Race Downgraded to Lean Dem
Continued from page 3
the seat, last week’s primary results may have done just that.
Denham received 49 percent and a second GOP candidate received
10 percent, while Eggman received 28 percent and a second Democrat
received 14 percent. In 2014, Eggman and another Democrat combined
for a similar 41 percent.
Democrats are quick to point out that Barack Obama won the district
in 2012 with 51 percent and there is a growing Hispanic population
(approximately 40 percent of the population). But Denham dispatched
Latino astronaut Jose Fernandez 53-47 percent in 2012 and is wellpositioned for the general election. The congressman had nearly $2.3
million in the bank on May 18 compared to Eggman’s $337,000 on hand.
The demographics of the district make the race worth keeping an eye
on, but there is no reason to believe Denham is in imminent danger. This
is the type of district Democrats probably need to win to recapture the
majority. Keep as Safe for Republicans for now.
10th District
Central Valley - Modesto, Tracy
16th District
Central Valley - Merced County, Madera,
most of Fresno
father pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations for laundering over
$250,000 in excessive contributions to help his son’s campaign. Bera
claims to have known nothing about his 83-year-old father’s scheme, but
the negative headlines didn’t help his candidacy.
Jones got off to a slow fundraising start, but Republicans were
excited that he received the endorsement from Teamsters Joint Council
7. Now that Jones’ fundraising has improved, the union retracted its
endorsement because of Jones’ support for Donald Trump. Bera raised
$2.1 million and had $1.3 million on hand on May 18 compared to Jones,
who raised $416,000 and had a modest $233,000 in the bank.
This Northern California district has seen multiple close races now,
and the narrow margin in the primary, when Democratic voters had
more of a reason to turn out to vote, demonstrates that this could be
another close race. Move from Democrat Favored to Lean Democratic.
If Republican Rep. Jeff Denham’s 56-44 percent defeat of Democrat
Michael Eggman in 2014 didn’t dampen Democrats’ hopes of winning
Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call
Candidate Conversation
Don Bacon (R)
Nominee for Nebraska’s 2nd
District
Interview Date: June 6, 2016
Date of Birth: August 16, 1963;
Chicago, Illinois
Education: Northern Illinois
Univ. (1984); Northwestern
College (attended)
Political Office: None; First run for office
Current Outlook: Bacon is the Republican nominee in the competitive,
Omaha-based district against Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford. In spite
of the GOP wave last cycle, Ashford defeated GOP Rep. Lee Terry,
who couldn’t seem to get out of his own way. The seat is one of the few
legitimate takeover targets for Republicans, but Ashford won’t be easy to
defeat. He was just endorsed by the NFIB. The race is rated Toss-Up/Tilt
Democratic for now.
Evaluation: With “Bits” as his nickname, Bacon earns the title of Best
Name for a candidate this cycle. It’s his first run for office, but he was
comfortable in our interview and was more likeable and charismatic
than a stereotypical retired Brigadier General (which he is). His 30-year
record of service in the Air Force could appeal to voters looking for an
outsider and make it difficult for Democrats to attack. But while Ashford
benefited from Terry’s stumbles, he is not viewed as a polarizing or
particularly partisan figure. It’s up to Republicans to make that case and
turn him into a politician who has been in office for three decades (which
he has). Bacon’s campaign was a bit slow in coming together, but allies
believe he’s hitting his stride and the competitive nature of the district
almost guarantees a close race.
Democratic Rep. Jim Costa survived a close call in 2014 when he
defeated Republican Johnny Tacherra 51-49 percent. The congressman
will face off with Tacherra again in November after the duo finished in
the top two last week. Costa finished first with 54 percent while Tacherra
received 34 percent. Two years ago, Costa received 44 percent to Tacherra’s
22 percent in the primary. Republicans probably missed their chance in
midterm elections when Costa wasn’t running a good campaign. Now
their challenge is much more difficult. Safe for Democrats.
17th District
South Bay and most of Fremont
Democratic Rep. Mike Honda defeated former Obama administration
aide Ro Khanna 52 percent to 48 percent last cycle in an intra-party race
that went all the way to November. Khanna is running again and Honda
is under investigation from the House Ethics Committee for potentially
improperly mixing government and campaign resources.
Honda finished ahead of Khanna in the 2014 primary, 48-28 percent.
This year, Khanna finished narrowly ahead of the congressman, 39-37
percent. Khanna also had a significant cash advantage over Honda, $1.6
million to $766,000, as of May 18.
This San Jose-area seat is guaranteed to stay in Democratic hands and no
one should count out the sitting congressman. But Honda should probably
be considered a narrow underdog in the general election at this point.
20th District
Monterey and San Benito counties - Salinas;
Santa Cruz
Democrat Sam Farr is retiring and leaving a safe Democratic seat
behind. Attorney/Navy veteran Jimmy Panetta finished first in the
June 7 primary with a considerable 71 percent and will be a Member of
Congress next year.
Pacific Grove City Councilwoman Casey Lucius has an attractive
resume and made the NRCC’s Young Guns Program with On The Radar
Continued on page 5
4
June 17, 2016
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
California: Democrats Struggle to Keep Valadao in Play
Continued from page 4
status, but she has no chance of winning in this district. The Naval
intelligence officer was the only GOP candidate in the primary and
received just 20 percent.
Panetta is the son of former congressman/former White House
chief of staff/former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Jimmy is former
prosecutor in the Alameda County District Attorney’s office and more
recently Deputy District Attorney in Monterey County. He is also an
Intelligence Officer in the U.S. Navy Reserves and served in Afghanistan,
where he earned a Bronze Star. Panetta graduated from UC-Davis and
Santa Clara University law school and worked at the State Department.
21st District
Central Valley - part of Fresno, Visalia
David Valadao is Democrats’ kryptonite. The Republican
congressman represents a Democratic district with a sizable Hispanic
population, but Democrats can’t figure out a way to keep it in play.
Valadao defeated Amanda Renteria, who is now Hillary Clinton’s
political director, by 16 points in 2014, but Democrats in Washington
had high hopes this time for attorney Emilio Huerta, son of labor icon
Dolores Huerta. But Huerta struggled through the primary and could
finish third and consequently out of the general election running. Votes
are still being counted.
The congressman finished first with a considerable 58 percent,
followed by Huerta (22.8 percent) and Fowler City Councilman Daniel
Parra 21.5 percent through Thursday evening. Parra had less than $4,000
in the bank on May 18, which is a significant reason why Democratic
strategists were looking elsewhere for a challenger.
But Huerta had just $54,000 on hand at the same time and never
put together the campaign necessary to win. He didn’t raise enough
money and he spent too much of what he had on consultants rather
than voter contact, according to a source familiar with the race. Some
Democrats were also disappointed that Huerta’s mother spent more time
campaigning for Clinton outside the district than for her son.
The only reason why this race isn’t safe is because of Donald Trump
and the national environment. There is just no way Valadao (and his
$1.2 million in campaign cash) can lose this type of race on his own.
Republican Favored understates the congressman’s advantage.
24th District
Central Coast - Santa Maria, Santa Barbara,
San Luis Obispo
Democratic Rep. Lois Capps’ retirement left a potentially competitive
open seat along the Southern California coast. The primary featured
a quartet of credible candidates -- two each on the Republican and
Democratic sides.
Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal finished first
with 32 percent, giving Democrats a strong contender in the general
election. Young businessman Justin Fareed is poised to finish second
with 21 percent, just ahead of fellow Republican/Assemblyman Katcho
Achadjian (19 percent). Another Democrat, Santa Barbara Mayor Helene
Schneider finished fourth with 15 percent.
The district is competitive, but Carbajal starts with the advantage.
rothenbergGonzales.com
This is Fareed’s second run for office and he’s improved as a candidate,
but it’s his first general election after he finished a close third in the
2014 primary. Democrats shouldn’t have trouble holding the seat in a
presidential year, but Fareed is a credible contender. Currently Safe.
25th District
Northern Los Angeles County - Santa Clarita,
Palmdale, most of Simi Valley
Some Democrats were concerned that their preferred candidate,
attorney Bryan Caforio, wouldn’t make the top two, but he finished
second with 29 percent and ahead of fellow Democrat/Agua Dulce
Town Councilman Lou Vince (15 percent) who had some local party
Continued on page 6
2016 Senate Ratings
Pure Toss-up
Ayotte (R-NH)
fl open (rubio, r)
NV open (reid, d)
Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Johnson (R-WI)
Portman (R-OH)
Toomey (R-PA)
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Kirk (R-IL)
Burr (R-NC)
Democrat Favored
Republican Favored
Bennet (D-CO)
Blunt (R-MO)
McCain (R-AZ)
iN open (coats, r)
Safe Democrat
Safe Republican
Blumenthal (D-CT)
Boozman (R-AR)
Leahy (D-VT)
Isakson (R-GA)
Murray (D-WA)
Lankford (R-OK)
Schatz (D-HI)
Crapo (R-ID)
Schumer (D-NY)
Grassley (R-IA)
Wyden (D-OR)
Hoeven (R-ND)
CA Open (Boxer, D)
Lee (R-UT)
md open (mikulski, d)
Moran (R-KS)
Murkowski (R-AK)
GOP
DeM
Paul (R-KY)
114th congress
54
46
Scott (R-SC)
Not up this cycle
30
36
Shelby (R-AL)
currently safe
14
8
Thune (R-SD)
competitive
10
2
la open (Vitter, r)
Takeovers in Italics # moved benefiting Democrats,
* moved benefiting Republicans
June 17, 2016
5
California: Democrats Battle for Compton Seat
Continued from page 5
Southern California’s
support but also
allegedly assaulted an
Congressional Districts
unarmed black man during a
traffic stop in 2001.
GOP Rep. Steve Knight
finished first with 49 percent and a
second Republican candidate received
7 percent. Democrats were shut out of
the top two in 2014, so the party is anxious
to challenge in a district Obama won by
2 points in 2008 and lost by 2 points in
2012. Since Knight faced fellow Republican
Tony Strickland in his initial election, this
is Knight’s first general election against a
Democrat.
Republicans will highlight the fact that
Caforio isn’t from and just moved to the district, and
contrast him with Knight, whose father was a local icon as
a former state senator and astronaut. Caforio will need to
boost his own name identification to make this competitive,
and he’ll need to do it predominantly without television ads because the
Los Angeles media market is cost prohibitive. And he will come armed
to the battle with a list of grievances against Knight, who Caforio says is
too extreme for the district. Republican Favored but could develop into a
more serious headache for the GOP.
replace Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn, who is running for Los Angeles
County supervisor. But he was also served a subpoena at his election
night party over $10,000 in unpaid rent and utilities.
31st District
Hermosa Beach City Councilwoman Nanette Barragán, who is
San Bernardino; Rancho Cucamonga
also
a Democrat, finished second with 22 percent and will face Hall in
Democratic Rep. Pete Aguilar finished first with 43 percent followed
November. Two Republican candidates combined for 10 percent of the
by 2014 nominee Paul Chabot 24 percent. Former Democratic Rep. Joe
primary vote, so Democrats were never in danger of losing the seat.
Baca ran as a Republican and finished third with 12 percent.
Barragán’s allies are convinced that California’s Top Two system
Chabot came close to winning in 2014 without any outside help, and
gives them enough time to make up the ground necessary to win. But
never really stopped running. But higher turnout in a presidential year
she still has some work to do. Hermosa Beach is not in the 44th while
should help Aguilar hold the seat for Democrats. Chabot had $52,000
Hall represents part of the district in the Legislature. And she has to
in the bank on May 18 compared to $1.3 million for Aguilar. Safe for
narrow the fundraising gap (although she had more cash on hand on
Democrats.
May 18). Either way the seat is Safe for Democrats.
36th District
Riverside County - Hemet, Palm Springs
Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz finished first with 57 percent and will
face Republican state Sen. Jeff Stone (33 percent) in November. Another
Republican candidate finished third with 10 percent. Republicans believe
Stone, a former Riverside County supervisor, will develop into a top
candidate, but he’s not there yet. The challenger had $58,000 in the bank
on May 18 compared to nearly $1.9 million for the incumbent. Safe for
Democrats for now.
44th District
Southern Los Angeles County - Compton, Carson,
parts of Los Angeles
State Sen. Isadore Hall had a roller coaster election night on June 7.
The Democrat finished first in the primary with 42 percent in the race to
6
June 17, 2016
46th District
West central Orange County - most of Santa Ana and
Anaheim
Former state Sen. Lou Correa finished first in the primary with 43
percent, but the Democrat’s general election opponent is still in doubt.
As of Monday, he would face fellow Democrat/Garden Grove Mayor
Bao Nguyen, who received 15 percent. Republican Bob Peterson
received 13 percent.
Under either scenario, the seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands.
Rep. Loretta Sanchez left the seat open to run for the Senate, where
she made the top two and should be a boost for Correa if he faces a
Republican in November.
Continued on page 7
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
California: Peters Looks Safe in San Diego
Continued from page 6
49th District
Coastal San Diego and southern Orange counties
Republican Rep. Darrell Issa finished just ahead of Democrat
Doug Applegate in the primary, 52-45 percent and that piqued some
Democrats’ interest as the congressman under-performed.
But Applegate had less than $14,000 in his cash account compared to
$3.8 million for the congressman. And Issa is the wealthiest Member of
Congress, according to a CQ Roll Call study, so Democratic groups may
be reluctant to get into an arms race and spend the money necessary to
win in light of other takeover opportunities around the country.
The demographics of the district are changing as it becomes
more Hispanic. But until Applegate raises some serious money or a
Democratic outside group demonstrates a commitment to winning. The
seat is Safe for Republicans for now.
52nd District
Downtown San Diego; Poway
Democratic Rep. Scott Peters finished first in the primary with
a considerable 58 percent. Two years ago, Peters finished ahead of
Republican Carl DeMaio 42-35 percent in the primary and 52-48 percent
in the general election.
Republican consultant Denise Gitsham finished second on June 7
with 17 percent and will move on to the general election. It won’t
be easy. The congressman isn’t taking his race for granted and had
nearly $1.7 million in the bank on May 18, compared to $179,000 for
Gitsham.
San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer won re-election with 58 percent
on the same day as the congressional primary, so that will free up some
oxygen in the area for Gitsham. But she still has a tough road ahead of
her. Keep as Safe for Democrats for now.
*District descriptions from CQ Roll Call’s Politics in America
Darlene Miller (R)
Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call
Candidate for Minnesota’s
2nd District
Interview Date: June 7, 2016
Date of Birth: Nov. 10, 1949;
New Prague, Minn.
Education: Saint Benedict’s
College (attended)
Political Office: None; First
run for office
Current Outlook: Miller is in the middle of a competitive primary
in the race to replace GOP Rep. John Kline, who is not seeking reelection. She faces former radio talk show host Jason Lewis and
former state Sen. John Howe in the August 9 primary. The winner will
face former St. Jude’s Medical executive Angie Craig in the general
election in a competitive suburban district. The race is rated Toss-Up/
Tilt Democratic.
Evaluation: Kline bemoaned the lack of quality candidates to replace
him and Miller is his answer. She owns a precision manufacturing
company in the district and won a national award, Small Business
Person of the Year, from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in 2006.
This is her first run for office but she’s not a stranger to politics. She
appeared in television ads for the Chamber in other races previously
and has served on the Chamber’s board. That led some allies to believe
Miller’s campaign would develop more quickly than the typical firsttime candidate. It hasn’t. But there is still time for her to put together
enough money to compete for the nomination and hope that the
same Republicans who were favorable to Marco Rubio in the March 1
presidential caucus will support her (and reject the polarizing Lewis)
in August. In our interview she was warm and engaging and seemed
to have all the right answers, but her challenges in the race extend
beyond our offices. Miller feels like a good example of how difficult it
can be to transition from the private sector to the campaign trail. Many
Republicans believe she’s the best candidate to hold the seat for the
GOP, but it’s very unclear she will win the primary.
rothenbergGonzales.com
Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call
Candidate Conversations
Denise Juneau (D)
Nominee for Montana’s
At-Large Seat
Interview Date: June 14, 2016
Date of Birth: April 5, 1967;
Oakland, Calif.
Education: Montana State
Univ. (B.A. 1993); Harvard
Univ (Master of Education
1994); Univ. of Montana (J.D.
2004); Univ. of New Mexico (attended)
Political Office: State Superintendent of Public Instruction
Current Outlook: Juneau starts the general election as a long-shot against
freshman GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke but Democratic strategists believe it is
developing into a legitimate takeover opportunity. Juneau is working
against a bit of history; Montana hasn’t elected a woman to Congress since
Jeannette Rankin won in 1916 and 1940 and Democrats haven’t held the
seat since 1997. We’ve had the race rated Safe for Republicans but Juneau
is a credible contender and close to bringing this onto the map.
Evaluation: Despite being recruited in 2014, this is Juneau’s first run
for Congress, but she’s not new to politics. Her mother served in
the state Legislature and Denise has been elected statewide twice.
She was warm and personable in our interview, confident without
being cocky, and delivered her attack lines without sounding mean.
At times she fell into the trap of thinking that her vote totals for her
Public Instruction races are easily transferable to a federal race (they
aren’t), but dozens of candidates before her have made the same
mistake. The former high school teacher was able to articulate clear
differences of opinion with President Barack Obama on education
policy, which will be important in a state where he received 42 percent
in 2012. Juneau will face criticism for some votes on the Land Board,
which she serves on with all the statewide officeholders. She is also
the first openly gay candidate to run for federal office in Montana, but
she quickly changed the conversation to another “first;” becoming the
first American Indian woman to serve in Congress.
June 17, 2016
7
Ratings Change: Utah’s 4th District
By Nathan L. Gonzales
among young voters, particularly young women. Owens needs
A new public poll showing GOP Rep.
to siphon off some of that support in order to win.
Mia Love trailing Democratic challenger
But Love is also vulnerable with Donald Trump at the top of
Doug Owens by 6 points doesn’t smell
the ticket. Trump is nowhere near where a presumptive GOP
quite right. But the congresswoman
nominee should be in the state. He received just 14 percent in
could still be in for a competitive race,
the March 22 presidential caucus but
even though Utah’s 4th District isn’t a
appears to have a more fundamental
typical swing seat.
and problematic disconnect with
The June 2-8 automated poll
Mormon voters. Buzzfeed’s McKay
conducted by SurveyUSA for the Salt
Coppins wrote a great op-ed on that
Lake Tribune and Hinckley Institute
dynamic for the June 13 The New York
showed Owens with a 51-45 percent
Times.
advantage in a hypothetical general
Depressed turnout among Mormon
election matchup. Operatives on both
voters could be a concern for Love.
sides of the aisle are skeptical of the
But GOP strategists are hoping to limit
polling numbers, but Democrats are
that effect because the vote will be
determined to defeat Love and some
conducted almost entirely by mail over
Republicans concede that the race is
the course of a couple of weeks, giving
worth watching.
the campaign time to track and followLove has struggled to gain her
Utah’s 4th
up with supporters.
footing. In 2014, she won the open seat
Congressional District
Democrats are candidly hoping
51-46 percent over Owens in a race that
that Constitution Party candidate
was closer than expected considering
Collin Simonsen lowers the threshold
Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson was
necessary for a Democratic victory by
retiring and President Barack Obama
siphoning off some Republican voters.
received just 30 percent there in his reexample,
in Run-Off
2012, Matheson won
election race.
May 24 Georgia Congressional For
Primaries,
Texas
re-election over Love, 48.8-48.5 percent,
Less than a year into her first term,
May 24 Washington republican presidential primary
and Libertarian Jim Vein received 2.6 percent. Simonsen will be the only
Love faced a wave of negative headlines after using taxpayer funds
June 7 california primaries
third
party candidate on the congressional ballot this year (there won’t be
for a flight from Salt Lake City to Washington for the White House
June 7 North
carolina,
iowa congressional primaries
a Libertarian
Party
candidate).
Correspondents’ Dinner. She later repaid the taxpayer account for the
June
Nevada
congressional
primaries
Right14now,
the Salt
Lake Tribune
poll is an outlier and Love has the
expenses from that trip. She’s also battled the reputation that she’s
advantage.
But
Democrats
appear
to
have the
ingredients to make this
focused on national exposure to the detriment of her local duties.
June 28 colorado, New york congressional
primaries
race
more
competitive
and
it
would
be
a
mistake
to assume
Trump is
Owens starts this race with higher-than-usual name identification
July 18-21 republican National convention, cleveland,
ohio
as secure in Utah as he is in Alabama. Republicans have some hope
for a challenger and residual positive ratings after Republicans failed
July 25-28 democratic National convention, philadelphia, penn.
considering Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama aren’t popular in the
to attack him in 2014. Owens’s father, Wayne, also served in Congress
August 2 michigan, Washington primaries
state either.
from 1973-75 and 1987-1993. But Doug’s favorability rating will take a hit
August
9 Wisconsin
primariesto monitor the 4th District race and local
Both parties
will continue
when Republicans focus on him with ads later this year.
August 16
primaries
pollster
Danalaska,
Jones isWyoming
expected
to conduct a survey in July.
Love has some unique vulnerabilities that could be a function of
August
florida
primarie
This 30
typearizona,
of district
should
not be in play but a unique set of
running in a conservative district. The young, black congresswoman
circumstances makes the 4th District worth watching once again. We’re
underperforms among older voters and white men without a college
changing our rating from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.
degree, compared to typical GOP candidates. But she overperforms
CALenDAR
2016
colorado, New york congressional primaries
August 2 michigan, Washington primaries
July 18-21
republican National convention, cleveland, ohio
August 9 Wisconsin primaries
July 25-28
democratic National convention, philadelphia, penn.
August 16 alaska, Wyoming primaries
Georgia runoff
August 30 arizona, florida primaries
June 28
July 26
8
CALenDAR
2016
June 17, 2016
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections