Quality in Ageing and Older Adults (2015) Vol. 16 No. 1 pp. 65 - 68
How older people will vote in the 2015 general election: a review of
existing polling evidence | Raphael Malek (BritainThinks)
The 2015 General Election outcome has been described as one of the least
predictable in decades. One certainty, however, is that a high proportion of older
people will turn out to vote on Election Day, with their participation likely to be
much higher than that of younger members of the electorate. This is evident both
from historical voting patterns and from declared intention to vote at the next
election.
According to Ipsos MORI, 76 per cent of over-65s and 73 per cent of 55-64-year-olds
voted in the 2010 General Election, compared with a national average of 65 per
cent (and turnout among 18-24-year-olds and 25-34-year-olds of 44 and 55 per
cent, respectively). Although there are no official figures for General Election
turnout by age group, the long-running “British Election Study” suggests that the
trend of above-average turnout among older voters has been evident since 1966
(and the gap has increased steadily since) (Dar, 2013).
More recent polling, too, suggests that older voters are more likely to vote at the
next election. According to two separate polls conducted in September 2014, over
seven in ten voters aged 65 or over declare themselves absolutely certain to vote
in 2015, while only around four in ten voters aged between 25 and 34 say the
same.
This phenomenon has given rise to the concept of the “grey vote”, with older
voters perceived to be an particularly powerful section of the electorate (and a
growing one, too, with the ONS predicting the number of people aged 65 and to
increase by 22 per cent by 2022) (ONS, 2014).
BritainThinks’ recent work for AgeUK sought to understand “grey voters”
qualitatively, conducting focus groups and ethnographic interviews with different
subgroups identified by data provided by the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.
The overarching themes identified by our study hint at the key drivers in voting
behaviour. Cautious older voters are resistant to cultural change, while they see
themselves as “savvy”, “sensible” and “skeptical” about their household finances
and health.
This is reflected in the specific policy issues which older voters care about:
immigration, followed by the NHS and the economy. The Economist/Ipsos MORI’s
October 2014 issues index tells us that around a third (31 per cent) of UK adults
aged 55 or over believe that the single most important issue facing Britain today is
immigration, while half of over-55s believe it to be among the main issues. While
immigration is also seen as an important issue by other age groups, its lead over
the other issues is much higher for older voters (see Figure 1). According to the
British Social Attitudes 2013 survey, 81 per cent of 55-64s and 87 per cent of over65s think that immigration to Britain should be reduced. This strong, widely shared
anti-immigration sentiment is, therefore, likely to play an important part in
determining the outcome of the grey vote.
The two other issues that stand out as particularly important to older people are
the NHS and the economy. Indeed, according to YouGov’s polling for the Sunday
This article is © Emerald Group Publishing and permission has been granted for this version to appear at
www.britainthinks.com. Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or
hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Times in October 2014, immigration (and asylum), the economy, and healthcare
are the three top issues in deciding who to vote for at the General Election by the
section of the electorate aged over 60. The next most frequently cited issues,
pensions, Europe and welfare benefits, are much less widely shared concerns
among older voters.
Immigration
NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare
Economy
Defence/Foreign affairs/International
terrorism
Unemployment
Age group:
Crime
55+
EU
35-54
Ageing population/social care for elderly
18-34
Poverty/Inequality
Pensions
Education
Low pay/Minimum wage
Housing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Proportion of UK adults claiming issue as one of main issues facing Britain today
Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI October 2014 Issues Index
On each of these three issues – immigration, the NHS, and the economy – the
Conservative party is seen by a plurality of older voters as the political party with
the policies best suited to respond. According to YouGov, 47 per cent of over-60s
believe the Conservatives would handle the economy best, a lead of 29 per cent
over Labour. Similarly, the Conservatives enjoy an 18 per cent lead over Labour on
immigration and even a 5 per cent lead over Labour on the NHS among this oldest
group of voters (despite Labour having a 12 per cent lead on the NHS among the
electorate as a whole).
Importantly, however, older voters (and the electorate as a whole) care less about
the specific immigration, health and economic policies which the main parties are
likely to include in their manifestos than they care about the parties’ broader
ideological position. YouGov’s polling for the Sunday Times in October 2014
indicates that 60 per cent of British adults aged over 60 state that the main
determinant of their voting intention is a party’s broad values and priorities. By
contrast, only 10 per cent say they are likely to vote for a party based on their
specific policies and 6 per cent would vote for a party based on their leader making
the best Prime Minister.
Looking at overall voting intention, then, the party whose broad values and
priorities are most closely attuned with older people would also appear to be the
Conservative Party. According to all of the regular national polls, the Conservatives
This article is © Emerald Group Publishing and permission has been granted for this version to appear at
www.britainthinks.com. Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or
hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
are the most popular choice of older voters (and especially of those aged over 65)
if an election were held tomorrow. As demonstrated in the table below, the
Conservatives enjoy a comfortable lead among older voters.
Source
Age
group
Most popular party (%
share of voting
intention)
Lead over second most
popular party
ICM (Oct ’14)
65+
Conservative (27%)
+10% (Labour)
Populus (Oct ’14)
65+
Conservative (35%)
+15% (Labour)
Populus (Oct ’14)
55-64
Conservative & Labour level on 24%
Ipsos MORI (Oct ’14)
55+
Conservative (33%)
+4% (Labour)
YouGov (Oct’ 14)
60+
Conservative (40%)
+14% (Labour)
ComRes (Oct ’14)
65+
Conservative (28%)
+8% (UKIP)
ComRes (Oct ’14)
55-64
Conservative (30%)
+9% (UKIP)
It would seem, therefore at first sight, that older people are likely to vote
Conservative at the 2015 General Election. This assumption is strengthened further
by the finding that older voters are likely to see themselves as supporters of one
political party – and much less likely than younger voters to change their minds on
voting intention. According to YouGov, fully 85 per cent of those aged over 60 say
they will definitely not change their mind on voting intention or that it is very
unlikely that they will. Additionally, the fact that older people are likely to
actually turn out to vote means that voting intention recorded in surveys are likely
to be a reasonably accurate predictor of the actual outcome in 2015.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the Conservative Party’s success among older voters
comes not from Labour but from UKIP which has overtaken the Liberal Democrats
as the third-party across the electorate as a whole. According to one recent
survey, UKIP is already the second most popular option for the over-55s, while the
other surveys referenced in Table I indicate that UKIP is only between 1 and 7 per
cent behind Labour as the second most popular option for the oldest band of
voters. This likely underestimates the strength of support for UKIP relative to
Labour among this age group because a number of major surveys do not specifically
prompt for UKIP as an option for voting intention (instead listing only
Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Other).
While it remains unlikely that UKIP will prove to be the most popular choice at the
ballot box for older voters in 2015, its popularity could nonetheless be sufficient to
seriously damage Conservative prospects of securing an overall majority at the
General Election. This is particularly true if the economy continues to lose salience
and immigration remains at the top of the political agenda for older voters.
BritainThinks focus groups suggest that older working class voters feel neglected by
Labour and are also attracted to UKIP; this erosion of Labour’s core “grey vote” is
likely to affect the party’s chances in some marginal seats, too. The standing of
the two main parties among older voters is less sure than it has ever been – and is
helping to make the 2015 election one of the hardest to call for decades.
This article is © Emerald Group Publishing and permission has been granted for this version to appear at
www.britainthinks.com. Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or
hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
A review of opinion polls – which often ask how respondents voted in the last
General Election – in the weeks after the election will be necessary in order to
ascertain how older Britons actually voted. In the longer term, a further review of
the existing polling evidence will reveal whether the tendency for older voters to
switch allegiances to UKIP continues to grow.
References
Dar, A. (2013), “Elections: turnout”, House of Commons Library Standard Note
SN/SG/1467, available at: www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN01467.pdf
(accessed 5 November 2014).
Office for National Statistics (2014), “2012-based subnational population
projections
for
England”,
Statistical
Bulletin,
available
at:
www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_363912.pdf (accessed 5 November 2014).
Web references
www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Aggregate%20for%20web%20210510.pdf
www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_03_11-2014_BPC.pdf
www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_octobr_poll.pdf
www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Octoberissuesindex14tabs.pdf
http://bsa-31.natcen.ac.uk/media/38108/immigration-bsa31.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/smviob5rvz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-271014.pdf
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/12/full-results-yougov-sunday-times-101014/
www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_03_11-2014_BPC.pdf
www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-oct-2014-tables.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/nesj1j60m0/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-301014.pdf
www.comres.co.uk/polls/The_Independent_Political_Poll_28th_October_2014_5632.pdf
www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_octobr_poll.pdf
www.ipsos-mori-generations.com/Assets/Docs/ipsos-mori-the-generation-frame.pdf
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/12/full-results-yougov-sunday-times-101014/
This article is © Emerald Group Publishing and permission has been granted for this version to appear at
www.britainthinks.com. Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or
hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Group Publishing Limited.