Comments on INDEPENDENT SYSTEM AND MARKET OPERATOR BILL (As introduced in the National Assembly (proposed section 75); explanatory summary of Bill published in Government Gazette No. 34289 of 13 May 2011) For more details on this document, contact § Manisha Gulati, Energy Economist – [email protected] § Saliem Fakir, Head- Living Planet Unit – [email protected] Our key observations § The creation of ISMO is focussed on addressing the immediate challenge of under-investment in new generation by the private sector. In the absence of a comprehensive policy decision on the extent of reforms and the intended structure of the electricity market, the timing of the ISMO needs to be deliberated upon. Moreover, the ISMO would result in limited benefits. § Private sector investment hinges on a host of factors. Unless the current policy and regulatory framework is overhauled, private sector investment would still not be forthcoming. § The Bill does not provide confidence in a smooth transition to ISMO. The transition also needs to be carefully phased and managed given the risks involved. § The independence and governance of the ISMO need to be improved. The ISMO must be allowed to make its own procedures and regulations for its efficient and effective functioning. It should be explicitly granted adequate discretion to evolve the market rules and market structure, within the broad mandate of government policy and the specific rules of the regulator. The governance system of the ISMO must incorporate stakeholder involvement through consultations. § Capitalization and creditworthiness of the ISMO, as currently proposed is weak and needs to be enhanced. Our detailed comments The proposal to introduce an Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) in South Africa, though pending for long, introduces some difficult but fascinating issues of market design and regulation in the electricity sector in the country. To be specific, the creation of an ISMO warrants an overall policy decision on the structure of the electricity industry in South Africa. There is lack of clarity on the extent of reforms to be pursued in the electricity industry and the final structure of the electricity industry envisaged in the country. What is known is that the government wishes to facilitate private investment in the generation business. But, IPPs constitute only a small step in the overall reforms and structure of the electricity industry. Moreover, it is not clear if Eskom would be vertically unbundled to separate the transmission function or if the distribution business will finally be reformed and reorganized. Finally, the extent of wholesale and retail competition is unknown. The industry structure will have a significant impact on the need, role of and functions to be performed by the ISMO. Therefore, WWF believes that a comprehensive policy decision on the extent of reforms and the structure of the electricity industry is crucial before the creation of the ISMO and deliberation on its institutional design and functions. Nevertheless, WWF would like to comment on the creation and functions of the ISMO as proposed under the INDEPENDENT SYSTEM AND MARKET OPERATOR BILL. WWF believes that before evaluating the proposed ISMO as laid down by this Bill, it is important to understand the role of an ISMO in the electricity sector, and the various institutional models that are possible for the creation of an ISMO. At the same time, it is necessary to understand the extent of reforms or competition that exists in markets where ISMOs have been created and the experience with such ISMOs. Such an understanding is critical not only for evaluating the proposed ISMO in South Africa but also for facilitating discussions on the overall context for the creation of an ISMO in South Africa. What is a system and market operator? A system operator (SO) is a centralized institution, which is responsible for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of the overall power system. The main duty of an SO includes operation, or at least, coordinating the operation of the transmission system. The SO thus serves primarily technical purposes and may or may not be involved in any directly market-related functions. In contrast to an SO, a market operator (MO) is a centralized institution, which operates an organized market for the commercial exchange of energy or other products between market participants. The typical functions of an SO and MO are highlighted in Table 1. Table 1: Generic functions of market operator and system operator System Operator Market Operator § Operate the system, ensure reliability and § Operate and/or facilitate the market security § Registration of market participants § Real-time dispatch to balance supply and § Receiving bids/offers from market demand participants § Managing ancillary services to maintain § Market clearing system reliability § Settlement and invoicing § Manage congestion Source: KEMA 2007 1 International experience indicates that in practice, diverse approaches have been adopted across countries; with the responsibilities for system and market operation being distributed to one or more institutions. In particular, there may exist several market operators in the same market. In the US, market operation and system operation are usually integrated and are the responsibility of what is called an Independent System Operator (ISO). However, different models can be found in different states/regions. On the other hand, in Europe, the energy market is under a distinct market operator, whereas the procurement of ancillary and balancing services or the allocation of transport capacities are mostly –performed by a system operator (see Table 2). The market operator is often named ‘Power Exchange’. In UK, the role of system operations is fulfilled by the ‘pool’. What is, however, common across these markets is that they have all enforced a measure of vertical and horizontal disaggregation together with competition at the wholesale level, and at least to some extent the retail level. 1 KEMA International B.V., Issue Paper - Market Operator (Regulatory Oversight), prepared for the ERRA Licensing and Competition Committee, December 2007 Table 2: System and market operation functions in different markets PJM US Spain Scandinavia Belgium Energy Ancillary services Balancing SO/MO SO/MO Transport capacity SO/MO Similar examples New US MO MO (D-1) SO (realtime) MO York Italy Great Britain MO SO SA/SO MO SO SO MO SO SO MO AO (forward) SO MO (spot) France, Austria Netherlands Legend: MO – Market Operator; SO – System Operator; AO – Auction office (SO-owned); SA – Settlement Administrator Source: KEMA 2007 It may be useful to note that though the system and market operation functions are vested in different entities in many markets, this separation has been criticized on grounds of ‘separation fallacy’. This view rests on the theory that the functions of the system operator and market operator cannot be separated because congestion management, balancing, ancillary services and transmission usage cannot be effectively handled2. Models for system operators Several models for ISOs have emerged over the years. These models have been given different names by different thinkers3 but they all hinge on the extent of transmission system unbundling. The main models are as follows: § System Operator: Under this model, the system operator is functionally separate along with transmission operation and planning operating within a single vertically integrated utility. It is not, however, a separate entity in terms of the ownership of any assets. The first generation US ISOs in the 1990s followed this model. § Vertically Integrated model: This model foresees the appointment of an independent system operator whereas the vertically integrated company retains the ownership of the network on the condition that it is actually managed by a completely independent company or body. The ISO is responsible for operating, maintaining and developing the transmission system and investment. Conversely, the asset owner has no responsibility and no prerogatives with regard to investment planning, which basically reduces its function to a financial investor. The asset owner is under the obligation to finance the investments decided by the ISO and approved by the regulatory authority. Articles 13/ 14 f. of the EU-Directives provide for the ISO model § Independent System Operator: Under this model, the system operator does not own the transmission assets but is ownership unbundled from the rest of the system. Examples of this model are the PJM, ISO-New England, AESO in Alberta, and the National Grid in Scotland. § Independent Transmission System Operator (ITSO): This model involves full ownership separation of the network and system operation from generation, distribution, wholesale and retail sales. Examples of this model are the National Grid in England and Wales, Red Electrica in Spain, and TenneT in the Netherlands Reviews of the role and functioning of SOs in the energy sector indicates that SOs which are formed on the ITSO model (i.e. which combine ownership and investment in the transmission network 2 3 Hogan, Electricity market design and structure: Avoiding the separation fallacy, 2002. Michael Politt and Paul Joskow for example together with operation and management of the SO) perform better than SOs that are along the ISO model4. What is the need for independent system and market operators? The concept of an ISO gained ground in 1996 with the United States’ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) initiatives towards supporting competition in the wholesale electricity market by requiring public utilities to provide open access and non-discriminatory transmission services. FERC recognized that it could do little to change the prevailing pattern of ownership of grid assets, and was therefore limited to focussing on the control of those assets. More generally, thereafter, the concept of creating independent system operators can be found in the liberalization of the electricity sector. The liberalization process involves the creation of competitive generation and retail markets. This gives rise to both complex operations with the existence of multiple buyers and sellers as well as market power concerns. The latter involves vertical market power due to ownership across the electricity value chain and horizontal market power due to transmission constraints. These, in turn, give rise to issues of gird reliability and safety, scheduling and dispatching various load and generation facilities, incentives for building transmission capacity, fairness and transparency, reducing market power, and monitoring market manipulations. The creation of a system and market operator found its basis in liberalized electricity markets to address these very concerns. Thus, a system and market operator can be found in countries traditionally associated with being at the forefront of electricity market reform, as well as in those jurisdictions that require ensuring (or signalling) non-discriminatory access to the grid. The South Africa context for the creation of ISMO The electricity industry in South Africa is vertically integrated with Eskom performing the generation, transmission and distribution functions. However, the energy utility has been unable to keep pace with growing energy demand, leading to severe electricity shortages in the past few years. One of the steps taken by the Government to address this situation is to solicit private sector participation in the form of Independent Power Producers in the sector. The Integrated Resource Plan makes a provision for IPPs to generate up to 30 percent of South Africa’s total electricity output. However, the power generated by IPPs must be sold only to Eskom and not to any other users. At the same time, Eskom will continue to build additional generation capacity and improve the maintenance of its power stations. Eskom has not been able to close many contracts with IPPs. There are concerns that one of the main reasons for IPPs being reluctant to invest is Eskom’s dominant position in generation combined with its ownership of transmission assets and system operation function which would enable Eskom to dispatch its own power stations before those of IPPs. The creation of an independent system operator finds its basis in this situation with the belief that the separation of the system operation function from Eskom would give assurance to IPPs of fair competition between generation companies requiring access to the monopoly transmission system. More specifically, it would assure them that the ownership of transmission assets by Eskom, would not lead to anti-competitive behaviour by Eskom by way of influencing the transmission system to hinder the entry of IPPs, or to facilitate its own generation projects. At the same time, the market operations functions would be vested with the ISO, thereby leading to the creation of an independent system and market operator or ISMO. 4 (i) Jon Stern, System Operators: Lessons From Us And Eu Energy Industry Experience And Mplications For The England And Wales Water Industry, CCRP, City University and (ii) Paul L. Joskow, Independent System Operators (VI + Access Rules vs. ISO vs. ITSO), Presentation dated September 28, 2007, Massachusetts Institute of Technology To sum up, unlike power sector reforms in other countries, reforms such as creation of ISMO in South Africa is not driven by objectives of improving efficiency through competition. Instead, the creation of the ISMO is focussed on addressing the immediate challenge of under-investment in new generation by both public and private sectors. This underinvestment has led to a very low reserve margin, and uncertainty around the sustainability of the sector. While there is no doubt that the existence of an independent system operator (and market operator) does encourage private sector investment, WWF believes that the creation of an ISMO will only partially address the immediate challenge facing the country viz. the private sector’s reluctance to invest in the sector. WWF is also concerned that the creation of ISMO without pursuing larger reforms in the sector would be premature and may lead to piece-meal reforms in the sector, in turn resulting in unnecessary oversights and mistakes. Before embarking on the reasons, WWF would like to reiterate that the debate is not about the concept of an ISMO, but the timing and practicality of an ISMO. The reasons for this are as follows: § To begin with, fundamentally, separating the system and market operation function from Eskom in the form of an independent company does not change the nature of electricity governance of the electricity supply industry. § There are no clear signals as to the nature of the future power market in the country. In the absence of such a policy decision or vision, private sector will be understandably reluctant to invest in the sector. § The establishment of a wholesale electricity market56 (wholesale competition) is often advocated to introduce competition into power generation. However, it is unclear whether the electricity industry in the country would move towards wholesale competition. Clarity on this aspect is crucial because the extent of reforms and final industry structure may impact on the Buyer or Market Operator function that the ISO must perform. At the same time, the South African energy sector lacks sufficient competition among power generation for the establishment of a wholesale electricity market. Specifically, the number of independent generators is too small to support a competitive market. § Effective separation of transmission system operators from generation is important for effective wholesale competition § The current contracts being signed by Eskom with IPPs are in the nature of take-or-pay contracts. In such a situation, Eskom would have to pay for the power generated by the IPP even if it does not off-take that power. Therefore, as the owner of the transmission system and the procurer of power, Eskom does not stand to gain by denying access to the transmission network to IPPs. Alternatively, IPPs don’t stand to lose in the absence of ‘independent’ system operations. § In the current environment where the supply of electricity is constrained and the shortage is expected to continue in the next few years, it is difficult to foresee a situation where Eskom would deny access to IPPs to the transmission network and indirectly, refuse to off-take that power. Simply put, as the system operator, Eskom would be keen to draw on any power that IPPs could offer. § Eskom is empowered only to sign short or medium contracts with private or municipal producers. Anything beyond that must be within the framework of the IRP and is subject to decisions by government. In such a scenario, Eskom’s ability to deny access to IPPs and refusal to off-take power is questionable. 5 Under wholesale competition, distributors are able to buy electricity from competing generators and use the transmission network to deliver it to their service areas. 6 For a discussion on electricity market structures, see (i) Ioannis Kessides, Reforming infrastructure: privatization, regulation and competition, World Bank Policy Research Report, 2004 and (ii) Anton Eberhard. Competition and Regulation in the Electricity Supply Industry in South Africa. Paper at the TIPS 2001 Annual Forum. 2001 § It is currently believed that investors fear that they are in the hands of one single buyer, whose behaviour in dispatching the system and in planning future expansions is not perceived as absolutely neutral or professional. Therefore, eliminating the dispatch risk seems to be the right thing to do. It however, needs to be debated whether the creation of an ISMO to eliminate such dispatch risk in the absence of separation of the transmission function from Eskom will be effective. § Finally, decisions regarding the IPPs to be chosen and granted PPAs involve a plethora of agencies viz. the Department of Energy, the National Treasury, the Department of Environmental Affairs, Eskom, the Department of Economic Development and the Department of Trade and Industry. Unless policies and processes at all these ends are comprehensively addressed, the ISMO is unlikely to result in increased private sector participation. Model proposed for ISMO in SA A review of literature on system and market operators does not indicate a firm consensus on the ‘best way’ to implement an ISO. But there is consensus on the fact that the institutionalisation of the system operator and related functions should respond to the local context. It would be appropriate to say that in the South African context, this would include the broader electricity market structure and government’s intended evolution of that structure. In the absence of such an overall picture, the model proposed by the government need to be evaluated in a stand-alone context. The model proposed is essentially one of the vertically integrated model where there is a system operator that is ownership unbundled from the rest of the system and the vertically integrated company retains the ownership of the network. At the same time, the market operations functions would be vested with the ISO, thereby leading to the creation of an independent system and market operator or ISMO. Given the single-buyer model7 for the electricity sector in the country, the function of power procurement is proposed to be vested into the ISMO. This is, understandably, once again aimed to address the conflicts of interest between Eskom’s various roles as a generator, planner, system operator and procurer of new capacity. In the absence of a clear policy statement on government’s intended structure for the electricity market, the model for ISMO can only be evaluated in the context of a single buyer market structure. And under such a structure, the model proposed to be adopted seems the best course of action. Vesting the system and market operator functions in one agency will avoid the ‘separation fallacy’. Key issues related of creation of ISMO in South Africa Having discussed the need for ISMO and the suitability of the proposed model, WWF would now like to comment on aspects of the ISMO Bill that WWF believes are critical for the effective functioning of the ISMO. These comments have been grouped under the following categories: § Transition to ISMO § Independence § Governance § Funding § Functions of ISMO § Implications for energy market Transition to ISMO The most important question related to the creation of the ISMO is the transition to this new entity. Currently, Eskom has ring-fenced the System and Market Operator (SMO) unit and is finalizing the implementation plan to establish the SMO as a subsidiary of Eskom. This is being done as part of the 7 Under such a model, an entity procures electricity from competing generators, but retains a monopoly on transmission and sells electricity to distributors and large consumers. transition to ISMO8. The SMO unit comprises the functions of systems operation, energy planning and market development, grid planning, business strategy and planning, and a single buyer office which will buy from IPPs. The issue of transition to ISMO (viz. populating and operationalizing ISMO) needs to be better dealt with and clarified. The Bill does not adequately address how the transition from the current concentrated system to the creation of a new agency is to take place. The time lines are also unclear. The existence of an ISMO implies that the system operator carries the risk of the power system. Given this huge challenge to be faced and executed by the ISMO, WWF suggests that a phased approach to the transition from Eskom to a new entity should be adopted, where functions are not all transferred at the same time. The transition to ISMO is a sort of restructuring in the electricity market. There are bound to be problems in the beginning. A phased approach will ensure that the transition is monitored and any challenges responded to appropriately. This is important from the perspective of the effective operation of the electricity industry. An issue that immediately merits attention in the context of the transition is the creation of a new company to perform the functions of ISMO. Given that Eskom is currently in the process of finalizing the plan to establish SMO as a subsidiary following the Minister’s directive, it is unclear why the ISMO bill proposes the creation of a new company for the purpose of establishing the ISMO. A logical route should be to strengthen and break the umbilical cord of the proposed subsidiary company with Eskom and develop it as the proposed ISMO. Another area of apparent conflict is the 2011 Newgen regulations which empowers the Minister to determine who will procure new capacity and the Buyer. However, the ISMO Bill makes the ISMO the sole procurer and buyer. Such conflicts would have to be addressed in the transition phase. Independence A key concern for the operation of energy markets is how the ISMO would be governed, i.e. who controls and directs ISMO’s activities. This, in essence, raises the issue of independence of the ISMO and its governance. True independence of the ISMO would require that the ISMO is independent of market participants. This has, in fact, been included by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), as one of the eleven principles for ISOs: An ISO and its employees should have no financial interest in the economic performance of any power market participant9. A good measure or criteria of an ISMO’s independence can also be found in the FERC’s final order on the formation of independent system operator (ISO), later also known as a regional transmission organisation (or RTO)10. FERC proposes that to achieve independence, an ISO must satisfy three criteria. First, the ISO, its employees, and any non-stakeholder directors must not have any financial interests in any market participants. Second, the ISO must have a decision-making process that is independent of control by any market participant or class of participants. Third, the ISO must have exclusive and independent authority to file changes to its tariff with the regulator. An evaluation of the ISMO Bill along these criteria is as follows: 8 Select Committee on Labour and Public Enterprises 7 March 2012, Presentation on DPE’s Strategic Plan 2012/13 – 2016/17 9 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Promoting Wholesale Competition Through Open Access Nondiscriminatory Transmission Services by Public Utilities & Recovery of Stranded Costs by Public Utilities and Transmitting Utilities. Docket No. RM95-8-000 and Docket No. RM94-7-001, Order No. 888. Washington, DC. April 24, 1996. 10 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Regional Transmission Organizations. Docket No. RM99-2-000; Order No. 2000. Washington, DC. December 20, 1999. Independence of ISMO The independence of the ISMO can be evaluated at two levels. The first is the legal status of the ISMO and the second is the independence of the ISMO’s Board. In terms of the legal status, the Bill proposes the creation of the ISMO as a public corporation with the Government being the sole shareholder. The governance structure of the ISMO should ideally depend on the Government’s final view of the structure of the electricity industry. In the absence of such a view and given that the Government’s immediate concern is facilitation of private investment in the generation segment, it may be safe to assume that the motive for the creation of the ISMO lies in enhancing private investment in generation. From this perspective, WWF supports the absence of market participants from the ISMO. This would ensure that dominant market entities do not use the ISMO to further their own market power or interests. Eskom is likely to remain the dominant entity for several years even with the entry of IPPs. The inclusion of market participants in the ISMO would therefore imply that Eskom would dominate the Board of ISMO. As far as the ISMO’s Board is concerned, the Bill provides for the appointment of non-executive members to the Board that has no direct or indirect interest in conflict with the business of ISMO (Clause 15 of the Bill). This assures the independence of the non-executive members. However, the provisions for the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and the Chief Financial Officer (CFO), who are also are members of the Board, are not clear. Clause 20 (3) of the Bill provides the CEO and CFO cannot be disqualified on grounds of having direct or indirect interest in conflict with the business of ISMO. On the other hand, Clause 22(3) provides for the CEO and CFO to be disqualified from being members of the board if they have direct or indirect interest in conflict with the business of ISMO. These Clauses are contradictory and need to be reviewed. Given that the CEO and CFO will be responsible for the day to day operations and management of the ISMO, it is important that they have no direct or indirect interest in conflict with the business of ISMO. It would also be useful to define indirect interest. Decision making process The governance structure of the ISMO has been designed to ensure that no individual or set of the market participants is allowed to control the ISMO’s operating procedure. All decisions of the ISMO are to be made by the Board. While the Bill assures the ISMO’s independence from market participants, it does not provide assurance of independence from the Government. The Bill empowers the Minister to make regulations regarding any matter relating to the functioning of the Board that is necessary to ensure efficiency and effectiveness in the performance of its functions. It also provides for the ISMO Board to appoint committees with the concurrence of the Minister. These provisions would effectively allow the Minister to control the ISMO’s operations. The Bill must allow the ISMO to make its own procedures and regulations for its efficient and effective functioning. Representations before the regulator The Bill provides for the ISMO to develop and implement energy supply tariffs for all sales to its Customers subject to NERSA’s approval. While the Bill does not specifically state that the ISMO would have independent authority to make filing before the regulator for the determination and levy of such charges, it is implicit that the ISMO would be allowed to file for changes to its tariffs before NERSA. If this is not the case, it is a matter worth considering. Governance While the Bill assures the ISMO’s independence from market participants, it proposes a standard public entity governance model for the ISMO wherein the ISMO would go about its work in an isolated fashion. In practice, however, system/market operators must work closely with stakeholders. The governance system of the ISMO must therefore guarantee stakeholder involvement through advisory bodies, obligation to consult stakeholders, obligation to report (as opposed to just an annual report and financial statements), and opportunity for recourse. The Board of the ISMO should be mandated to establish appropriate stakeholder consultation mechanisms. Another governance issue relates to the discretion of the ISMO Board. The government will define policy. NERSA will continue to develop and apply detailed regulations to support this policy. It is unclear to what extent may the ISO board experiment with market rules or take measures to evolve the market. Would this remain the government’s prerogative or would the regulator play a role. WWF suggests that given that the ISMO would be the most capable entity to undertake such tasks, the Board of the ISMO should be explicitly granted adequate discretion to evolve the market rules and market structure, within the broad mandate of government policy and the specific rules of the regulator. This should however undergo the appropriate stakeholder consultation mechanisms referred to above. Funding of ISMO The Bill provides for the ISMO to be self-funded on the basis of the tariffs, fees and charges levied on its customers. It allows the ISMO to arrange finances to meet its capital and operational requirements and raise capital on the basis of its own revenues and assets. Finally, it provides for the ISMO to obtain loans from the Government. High Court intervention to order that any prices of electricity supplied or to be supplied be increased to meet the deficit is provided only in the event that interest due in respect of any securities remains unpaid for three months. WWF has identified three challenges with the above provisions. First, given the functions to be performed by the ISMO, it would not have a huge asset base. Its balance sheet will be rather small and raising capital on the basis of such a small balance sheet may be difficult. Second, the small balance sheet of the ISMO does not provide confidence in its ability to bear the risks associated with power procurement. The financial creditworthiness of ISMO depends on the ability of its customers to pay the regulated bulk supply tariffs. Given its small balance sheet, the possibility of payment default by its customers would affect the ISMO’s creditworthiness. Thus, there is a need to ensure that the ISMO would be able to withstand any potential payment defaults by its customers. Loans from the Government may allow the ISMO to meet short term financing requirements. They may not be the available to ISMO to address payment defaults from customers. Even if they are available for this purpose, government loans are not the prudent way to address such defaults. Finally, ISMO, being the procurer of power from IPPs, contracts with IPPs would not materialize unless there is strong payment security from ISMO or the Power Purchase Agreement is bankable. This is unlikely to be the case given the ISMO’s balance sheet. For the above reasons, it is important to ensure that ISMO is adequately capitalized at the outset. It may also be worthwhile to consider some form of government guarantee during the initial phase. Functions of ISMOs It is proposed that the ISMO will perform the broad roles of planning, power procurement (from Eskom and IPPs), wholesale tariff aggregation and dispatch. In the current context, the functions of the ISMO seem appropriate. Integration of these functions into the ISMO, will avoid interorganisational communication problems leading to more effective functioning of the ISMO, besides using scarce human expertise in a productive manner. But should policy and legislation allow for the establishment of bilateral PPAs with new IPPs, the market operator function may have no specific role to play in relation to these agreements – although of course the system operator function would have to be involved. Therefore, the future structure of the electricity market may result in changes in the functions of the ISMO. Implications for energy market As mentioned earlier, the creation of an ISMO is an initiative towards supporting competition in the wholesale electricity market. More specifically, the initiative is aimed towards assuring IPPs of fair competition between generation companies requiring access to the monopoly transmission system. While this is an immediate objective, there is a need to debate the impact of the ISMO on the overall energy market in terms of market development, increased competition, efficiency improvement, and cost reduction. The creation of an ISMO is often accompanied by wider sectoral reforms and restructuring. This leads to enhanced wholesale competition. The creation of ISMO imples the existence of a market that provides accurate price signals for participants to make informed decisions regarding investment in new power plants to significantly increase supply. In the South African context, the creation of the ISMO is a piece meal approach to electricity market reforms. To begin with, it does not break up the basic monopolistic structure of the sector. Second, the market structure is one where all future generation capacity would be compelled to sell to the single buyer). Third, the entire issue of ISMO revolves around generation capacity only. The issue of how demand-side resources compete has been left out. Energy markets cannot be truly developed unless this aspect is dealt with. Finally, there is no clarity on bilateral power deals and wheeling. The above aspects imply that the ISMO may only end up creating limited competition for the market amongst IPPs. It is precisely for this reason that WWF believes that these aspects need to be deliberated upon in the context of the overall policy for the sector. While the impact on market development hinges on broader policy issues, the impact on efficiency improvement needs to be understood in the context of the incentives available to the ISMO. Given the functions to be performed by the ISMO and the specific exclusion of transmission asset ownership from the ISMO, it is unclear what effective incentives would be available to the ISMO to bring about efficiency improvements and cost reduction. The issue of cost reduction is sensitive. A desirable outcome from ISMO, as is being spoken about, is lower electricity prices. It has been argued that for Eskom to build all the required new generation capacity, steep electricity increases will be required. These increases will have negative impact on the economy. But with IPPs, the ISMO will pay only for the delivered power in terms of the PPA. Further, there is a belief that IPPs will price PPAs with ISMO at lower risk premium than with Eskom, due to absence of inherent conflict of interest in contracting process. While the latter may be true to an extent, there is no way of knowing what electricity costs or charges are likely to be. The price quoted by IPPs would in practice depend on several factors such as the type of procurement process (example the extent of competition involved in the process), fuel markets, regulatory tools to create better incentives for efficient production of power, and even the supply demand imbalance. There is no guarantee that IPP tariffs would be lower when contracting to the ISMO. Another aspect that is being ignored here is that whether a generation plant is built by Eskom or by an IPP, the consumer has to pay for the new capacity. In case of Eskom, this would largely take the form of capital expenditure that is recovered through the consumer tariff and in case of IPPs it is the tariff under the PPA. This tariff covers capital expenditure. Therefore, new capacity coming online would lead to increase in tariffs, other things remaining the same. Perhaps, the degree of increase may be lower. Conclusion To conclude, WWF recognizes that an ISMO is key in facilitating introduction of IPPs because the ISMO brings about (i) transparency and accountability for a level play field in planning and dispatch; (ii) transparency in governance; and (iii) no conflicts of interest for the incumbent as both player and referee. The debate is not about the benefits of the ISMO but about its timing as well as the overall design of the electricity market structure. The latter is crucial to be able to derive the maximum benefits from the creation of an ISMO. WWF recognizes that changing a large structure that has been in existence for many years is extremely difficult. While it is prudent to adopt caution in making changes, it is important to understand that further delay is imprudent. The creation of ISMO as piece-meal reforms in the sector may lead to unnecessary oversights and mistakes. Moreover, its benefits in terms of market development at this stage may be limited. Having said that, it is important that the proposed transition to ISMO is carefully phased and managed given the risks are high. The independence and governance of the ISMO are crucial issues that must not be ignored. More importantly, the capitalization and creditworthiness of the ISMO should be ensured.
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