JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 106, NO. B4, PAGES 6513-6533, APRIL 10, 2001 Reconstruction of eruption column dynamics on the basis of grain size of tephra fall deposits 2. Application to the Pinatubo 1991 eruption TakehiroKoyaguchiand MarekazuOhno1 Department of Complexity Scienceand Engineering,Graduate Schoolof Frontier Sciences University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Abstract. The granulometricmethods to reconstructeruption column dynamics developedin paper I are applied to the tephra fall depositsof the climactic Plinian phaseof the 1991 eruption at Pinatubo. The tephra fall depositsare composedof two units: layer C1, which correspondsto the first half of the climactic phase,and layer C: the secondhall The granulometricestimatesof the expansionrate of the umbrella cloudfor layersC1 andC: are7 x 1010and3 x 1010m3/s,respectively, which agreewith the observationsof satellite images. These estimatesindicate that themagmadischarge ratedecreased from9 x 10s to 3 x 10s kg/sduringtheeruption. The grain-sizedistribution at the top of the eruption column is characterizedby depletionof coarseclasts,suggestinga distinct decelerationin the gasthrust region down to severaltens of meters per second,particularly during the secondhalf of the climactic phase. The total amount of layers C1 and C: is estimated to be 3 x 1012kg, and the veryfine particles,whichdid not depositin the accessible on-land area, may occupyup to 60% of the total ejecta. The effectiveduration of the eruptionestimatedby the presentmethods(a few hoursor less)is substantially shorter than a previous estimate from the real-time observation based on infrasonic data (•-10 hours). This discrepancymay be attributed to the overestimationof the magma dischargerate due to the entrainment of the ambient air at the cloud top and/or to the underestimation of the total amountof the ejectadue to the effect of the contemporaneous Plinian activity and generationof pyroclasticflows. It is also suggestedthat the intensity of eruption was fluctuating with time so that the instantaneousobservationssuch as cloud height in satellite images do not always show a quantitative agreementwith the time-averagedfeatures predicted by the present methods. 1. Introduction of tephra is also affected by the presenceof wind. We have introduced This paperand the companionpaper (paper 1) [Koyaguchiand Ohno,this issue]are concernedwith inversion methods to reconstruct eruption column dynamics from granulometric data of Plinian deposits. The methods are based on a dispersal model which assumes some idealized conditionsof eruption; for example, the umbrella cloud is assumedto expand steadily due to a continuousPlinian eruption. In reality, some Plinian eruptionsmay be a seriesof pulsating explosionsrather than continuouseruptions,and they are sometimesaccompaniedby generationof pyroclasticflows. Dispersal 1Now at Department of Geosystem Sciences,Nihon University, Tokyo, Japan. some statistical treatments to evalu- ate various kinds of noise in data and assessed some of the major assumptionsfrom the theoretical viewpoint in paper 1. However, it is not clear how these effects modify actual resultsof the presentmethods. In paper 2, we apply the methods to the tephra fall deposit of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption. Because the sequenceof eruption and the behavior of the eruption cloud were witnessedby real-time observations,such as monitoring of seismic and acoustic waves and remote sensingof eruption cloudsfrom satellites, we can test the presentmethodsby comparingthe resultswith these observations.This study is an extensionof pre- viouswork [Koyaguchi, 1994,1996].The presentstudy Paper number 2000JB900427. is basedon a more comprehensiveset of granulometric data than the previouswork; it includesmodal compositional analysesfrom different fall units, which provide new informationsuchas the waxing and waningof the 0148-0227 / 01/ 2000JB900427509.00 eruptive mass flux and an estimate of the total amount Copyright 2001 by the American GeophysicalUnion. 6513 6514 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 of ejecta.Theseimprovements, aswellasmoresophis- 2. Tephra Fall Deposits of the Pinatubo ticated inversionmethodsdevelopedin paper 1, enable 1991 Eruption us to quantitativelycomparethe resultswith real-time 2.1. General Features geophysical observations fromdifferentpointsof view. In section2 the generalfeaturesof the Pinatubo1991 Repetitive explosiveeruptionsoccurredat Mount eruptionandthe tephrafall deposits are described. In Pinatubo,Philippines,beginingon June 9 and culmiorderto clarifyhowthe presentmethodsare applicable natedon June 15, 1991 (for detailsof the eruption,see to past eruptionswe first attempt to reconstruct the Newhalland Punogbayan [1996]). The tephrafall decolumndynamicswithout any informationfrom real- positscanbe dividedinto fiveunits(Figure1), desigtime observations in section 3. Then the results will nated as layersA, B, C1, C2, and D in ascending orbe comparedwith real-timeobservations in section4. der[Paladio-Melosantos et al., 1996;Koyaguchi, 1996]. Finally,we discuss the potentialandthe limitationsof LayersCt, C2, andD correspond to layersC, D, andE the methods in section 5. of Koyaguchiand Tokuno[1993],respectively. (a) -__ Layer D? Fine ash after the major eruption I Layer C2 Lapillibearingvolcanic sand ß'oo •. ' 'o ,0-4 0 4 8 /Grainsize(• scale) \ I I Depositsdue to ø the climactic Plinian phase Layer C 1 Lapillilayer commonly includingpumicegrains 15 o 00" of > 1 cm - __ o cm Layer B Silt size fine ash. 120 ø 00" -- 30" Layer A Lapillilayer. Loc. 1101 (b) 20......... •)'• ' :30" LayerB ............... wt % •0 4 8 0-4 lO N •l- Grain size (½• scale) 1i 0 kmi 1205 11Ol 15 ø 00" 4 25025 1207 120 ø 00" 1308 30" Figure 1. Isopach mapof layersA, B, Ct, andC2 [afterKoyaguchi andTokuno, 1993;Koyaguchi, 1996](datain mm),andtheirrepresentative grain-size distributions. (a) LayerA and therepresentative columnar section; (b) layerB; (c) layerC•; and(d) layerC2. Theisopach map for layerC2wasdrawnonlyfromthedataonwhichtheeffectof theerosion is negligible. The localities in whichthe grain-size distribution shows bimodaldistribution with the modearound 4• areindicated byopencircles, andthoseforwhichcompositional analyses weremadeareindicatedby opensquares. Thegrain-size distributions from-3.5• to 4• aredetermined by sieving analyses, whilethosefrom4• to 10• arebased onthescattering ofa laserbeamthrough a stream of particles. KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 6515 30 (c) % 20 lo 3ø"l Layer C• o -4 1003 0 4 8 size (qb scale) N 10 km I 1205 80 15 ø 00" ,o [5 e95 1207 1308 120 ø 00" 30" (d) 1003 30" I Layer 0 2 1 20 3 nsize(qbscale) N 10 km 1205 I 130• I 1101 64 15 ø 00" O105 >22 120 ø oo" 30" Figure 1. (continued) Layer A is a lapilli or volcanicsand layer enriched in grayishpumicegrains and lithic fragments. It is the deposit of the eruption on June 12. Layer B is a fine ash layer in most locationsaway from the volcano. Eyewitnessaccountssuggestthat there was a heavyfine-ashfall with rain, evenin the upwindregion, shortly beforethe lapilli fall of the climactic Plinian phaseon June 15 [e.g.,Koyaguchiand Tokuno,1993]. 'Weconsiderthat most of layer B, especiallythat of the upwind region, correspondsto this heavy fine-ash fall. There were pulses of fine-ash fall due to intermittent minor eruptions on June 13, 14, and in the morning of ers, and they are the recognizedfall units producedby the climactic Plinian phaseof the eruption on the afternoon of June 15. Layer D is a fine-ashlayer originating mainly from fallout of semicontinuous,minor eruptions occurring in the period of June 16 to early August. The climactic eruption is thought to have featured contemporaneousPlinian activity and generationof py- roclastic flows [e.g., Koyaguchi and Tokuno, 1993; Hoblitt et al., 1996; Scott et al., 1996]. Judgingfrom the wide distribution and the depletion of coarsematerial, a part of layer B is consideredto be derived from an energeticash cloud that was producedfrom pyroclastic June15 mainlyin the downwind(SW) region[Paladio- flowsshortlybeforethe climacticPlinianeruption[KoyMelosantoset al., 1996], someof which could not be aguchiand Tokuno,1993]. The resultsof field studies distinguishedfrom the depositsdue to the heavy fineashfall shortly beforethe climactic Plinian phasein this study. Layers C1 and C2 are lapilli or volcanicsand lay- in the proximal area suggestthat somepyroclastic flow depositsare interbeddedin layersC1 and C2 [Scottet al., 1996]. 6516 KOYAGUCHI ANDOHNO' RECONSTRUCTION OFERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 25 2.2. Thickness and Grain-SizeDistribution ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' Layer C1 Figure 1shows isopach maps oflayers A,B,C•,and '"':.'• plagioclase 2O C2afterKoyaguchi andTokuno [1993] andrepresen- :[• mafic mineralsl] tative grain-size distribution analyses. Allthedataof grain-size analyses (107 samples from -3.5½ to10½) and compositional analyses (57samples from -3.5½ to3½) wt [-] magnetite 15 L• lithic % areavailable onrequest fromtheauthors. Thethickness datawerecollected in June1991(-•1 weekafter I noanalyses 10 theeruption) andDecember 1991. Thethickness ofthe uppermost partofthetephra deposits (layers Dand/or C2)decreased from June toDecember atsome localities;however, there isnosystematic difference inthe ß ß ß ß 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 -4 thickness oflayerC•between thedataofJune andDe- -2 4. 0 6 8 10 8 10 Grain size (q5 scale) cember [Koyaguchi andTokuno, 1993]. Wecould not recognize anyapparent change inbulk density ofthedeposits inthefield between thetwoperiods. These facts suggest thatthedecrease inthickness isbasically due 25 ,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2O Layer • 2 toerosion andtheeffect ofcompaction between thetwo 15 periods was limited. Forlayer C2wedrew anisopach wt % maponlyfromthedataonwhich theeffect oferosion 10 is negligible. Theisopach mapoflayerA shows a narrow distri- bution withanaxisextending southwest fromthevent. 5 Thegrain size oflayer Arapidly decreases withdistance fromtheventalong theaxis.LayerB andthetephra fallunitsoftheclimactic Plinian phase (layers C1and 0 --m'-•-m -4 -2 0 2 ' ........ 4 6 Grain size (4• scale) C2)arewidely distributed inalldirections including the upwind side (NE)ofthevent, although they areslightlyFigure2. Typical results ofcompositional analyses of elongated inthedominant winddirection. Layer B is layerC• andlayerC2(theresults oflocation 1101at mostly composed ofsilt-size fineash(-•4½), butit con- 14.2kmSWfromthevent).SeeFigureI forthesample tainssmallamounts oflapilligrains in thedownwindlocality. direction (SW).Layer C• isa lapillilayercommonly including pumice grains of>1 cmin diameter. Layer C2isa lapilli-bearing volcanic sand layer.Thegrain2.3. Modal Compositionand Bulk Density of the Deposits sizeof layers C1andC2alsodecreases withdistance fromsource; however, therateofthedecrease ismuch Theweight fraction offreeplagioclase crystals ismea- slower thanlayerA. LayerC2contains a smallto con- sured forallthesieved samples oflayers C1(29samples) siderable amount ofsilt-size fineashandshows bimodalandC2(28samples). Among them modal compositions sizedistribution inalmost allareas except tothesouthofallthecomponents aredetermined for11and7 samof Pinatubo. Thepresence ofthesecond mode(finer ples fromlayer C1andlayer C2,respectively (fortheir than4•b) inthegrain-size dataoflayer C2maysupportlocalities, seeFigure1). Typical results ofthecompotheideathat therewaspyroclastic flowactivityaccom- sitional analyses areshown in Figure2. Thedeposits panying thePlinian activity during deposition oflayerarecomposed of 27to 55wt % pumice, 43to 65wt C2. % free crystals, and <9 wt % lithic fragments. Pumice Thecalculated terminal velocities ofparticles in lay- grains aredominant intherange between -3.5•b and ersC•andC2indicate thatthese deposits arebasically -l•b. Predominant free crystal particles are plagioclase composed ofclass II fragments. Ontheother hand,crystals ranging from-l•bto3•b. Theproportion offree thefineashoflayers B andC2felloutaccompanied by crystals is higher in layer C• (64 wt %) than in layer C• muddy rainfall,andtheyareconsidered tooriginally (52 wt %). The qualitative features of modal composibelong toclass III. Judging fromthefactthata largetion(i.e.,predominant constituents, difference between pumice cone was probably notformed bythiseruption, layers C• and C2, etc.) are basically invariable within weassume thattheproportion of class I fragments is the accessible area,although thequantitative features negligibly small except forthose inthepyroclastic flow to someextent. deposits formed bythiseruption. In section 3 wewill vary Reconstructed bulkdensities of thedeposits (Psed) reconstruct thedynamics oftheeruption cloudduring weredetermined bymeasuring thevolume andweight theclimactic Plinian eruption using thegranulometric of each sample before sieving analyses in the laboradataof layerC• andlayerC2. KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION 2000 ß LayerC• o LayerC2 '•E 1500 1000 '5 500 6517 C1 and 1250kg/m3 for layerC2) in determining mass of depositsper unit area usingequation (13) of paper 1. Although we carefully reproducedthe appearance o e• • @0 .i i i i I i ß ß , i , i , , i , , , . i ß , ! , i • i i • 10 COLUMNS, 2 of the deposits during this measurement, the samples tend to be slightly more compacted in the laboratory than the actual depositsin the field. As a result, the laboratory-measureddensitiesare expected to be systematically greater than the bulk densitiesin the field o o ßi = OF ERUPTION 15 20 25 30 35 40 Distance from the vent (km) Figure 3. Bulk densities measured in the laboratory of samplesof layer C1 (solidcircle) and layer C2 (open circle)as a functionof distancefrom the vent. (errorsin the bulk densitiesare estimatedto be lessthan a few tens of percent). Becausethis effectbiasesall the results equally, the relative tendenciesof the above results must be robust. Accordingly,the estimation of the expansionrate of the cloud will not be affected by this error. On the other hand, the total mass of the ejecta based on these laboratory-measured densities may be overestimated 3. to some extent. Reconstruction of Plinian Column tory. The bulk density of layer C2 is systematically Dynamics on the Basis of Granulometric greater than that of layer C1, reflecting the different Analyses for Layer C1 and Layer C2 modal composition, but they are constant within each layer regardlessof distancefrom the vent (Figure 3). In paper 1 we have developedtwo inversionmethods: We usethe average valuesof Psed (1000kg/m3 for layer methods 1 and 2. Method 1 provides the expansion (a) Layer C 1 4 . , . , . , . , . , . , . , o NEI . ß 4 f............ o •o : •, ßnSEI :] 2 ßo•. ß ß swI 0 ß 0 ß 0 ...... . , . , . , o NEI nSEI o NWI o NWI 2 ß SWI (y) 0 O0 0ß ßO•o ßß0 roO•o 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 .sq• -6 0 0 2.5q• 4 8 12 16 16 4 2 1•0 ßo'•O 0 -4 0 • ß ' - • - ' - - 1'2 ' - 16 2 -2 -4 -4 , .•. ,.;•., -6 .• o ß ' ' • ' ' ' •1' ' ' 1'2' ' '16 , ß 0 ß O ßß 0 -2 ß o i•1 ø ßo 1.0• ß , .;,. 2 0 -2 -3.0• 0 ' 0 -- o -6 ß r-- o -2 0 4 4 2 -6 , ß , ß , ß i ß , ß , ß , Oooo•o t o•lt• ø ß 0 ß OE•' o -6 0 ß o o -4 -2.5 q• -6 , i , •.5• , i ß ß , ß ß , ß ß ''•' ß r ß,.,oo,•& ß 40 , oo ß ß ' '•''','•'' i . ß 0o% o , ß , ß , ß o , - , ß o oo oI -o -2 ß -4 ß •l•O -60t -?-"0 • ' ' 4' ' 8' 0.0• '1'2' ' ' (distance? from the vent (x10 sk•26) (distance? fromthevent(x10skm2) 4.0• 2.0• 0 ' ' ' •1 ' ' ' • ' ' '1'2' ' '16 (distance) 2fromthevent(x10s km2) 0 ß 0 ß 4 8 12 16 (distance? fromthevent(x10s km2) Figure 4a. Relationshipsbetweenlogarithmof massof depositsper unit area for individual sievingintervals(0.5½interval)and squareof distancefrom the vent for data of layer C1. The plotsof differentdirections from the vent are shownby: opencircle,NE of the vent (upwind); open square,SE of the vent; open diamond,NW of the vent; solid triangle, SW of the vent (downwind). 6518 KOYAGUCHI (b)LayerC2 4 . , . , . , . , . , . , ß , AND OHNO' RECONSTRUCTION ß 4 .... 2 0 ßo• oo-ß o•o -2 COLUMNS, [] SE O N¾ ß SW : ß% . o g• [] [] ßA 0 2 Ooo• ß •[] ßß O o o•o o o NE'I []SEI o NWl -4 1 .o• -1.0• -6 3.0q• , -6 0 4 8 12 16 0 4 2 8 -2 •O•) o•, o ß i ß , ß , 4 12 ooO• ßß ß o o• ß o -2 -4 AO 2 . , oNE ß 0 O . ..... OF ERUPTION , i 8 , i , i i ß swI , i ß 12 i 16 ß o o ß ß ß 000 -2 -4 -4 -2.5• -6 , , o , , 3.5• 1.5• i ..... , -6 ß 0 4 8 o' '';'' 12 '•' '';•' ' 2 000•00 0 o 0 [][] -2 ß ß •O_o ß oo • o -4 4.0• 2.0• -6 -6 0 4 16 . , . , . , . , . , ß , . , . ßo-•,, 00"'• % ß o%1, ß o i[ ooo• O [] -6 t -1.5 q• -o''';''''8'' 42 o 2.5• 0.5• ' 0 (distance) 2from the vent (x10 8k• o o ø1: •'Oor : - :o,• o' ''•,'' '•' '';•'' distance) 2fromthevent(xl08 km2) 4 8 12 16 (distance) 2fromthevent(x108km2) (distance) 2fromthevent(x108km2) Figure 4b. Sameas Figure 4a exceptfor layer C2. rateoftheumbrella cloud(lk) andthemassofdeposit able for grain sizesbetween -3½ and 1½, whereasit per unit area in the ith range of grain size at the vent ß is lessobviousfor coarseror finer grain sizes. The rate (Si(O)). Method 2 providesV for individual localities. of decreasein the mass with distance is systematically It has been suggestedthat method I is more useful for higherfor coarsegrain sizesthan fine grain sizesfor the evaluating the uncertaintiesof the granulometricdata. samplesfrom the southwestregionof the vent (i.e., the Because the evaluation of the error is one of the main isdownwindregion). Thesefeaturesare qualitativelyconsuesof this study, we first carry out method 1, and then sistentwith the tephra dispersalmodel [Bursiket al., method 2 is used in interpreting the results of method 1992;Koyaguchi,1994]. 1. All the notations used below follow those of paper 1. Fromthe relationship between In Si(r) andr 2 in Fig- ure4,wecandetermine 1/1•andS•(0)foreachrange of 3.1. Determination by Method of the Model Parameters 1 Method I is based on the relationship between the grain sizeby applying a least squaresmethod to equation (14) of paper 1. As wasmentionedin paper 1, two proceduresare necessaryto carry out method 1. First, because theestimates of 1/1•ifromdifferent ranges of logarithmof massof depositsper unit area and the grain size do not always give a consistentvalue, the squareof distancefrom the vent (Figure4). The mass weighted average (1/l•win equation (17) of paper1) of deposits per unit areais obtainedfromequation(13) must be calculatedfrom 1/1// (seeFigure 4 in paper ß of paper 1 for individualsievingintervals(0.5½interval) 1). Second,an appropriatereleasealtitude must be usingthicknessdata (T(r)) and the averagevaluesof determined by the intersection of the relationship berelease altitudesandlkwandthe possibulk densityof the deposits(Psed(r))-For layer C2 we tweenassumed adopted interpolated thickness from the isopach map ble rangeof the relationshipbetweenneutral buoyancy instead of the actual thickness data for some localities level (NBL) and volumetricflowrate at NBL (seeFigin order to avoid the effect of erosion. ure5 in paper1). In practice, wedetermine 1/1•wand The logarithmof the massper unit area (ln Si(r)) lin- Si(O) usingterminalfall velocities(vi) for releasealtiearly decreaseswith the increasingsquare of distance tudes of 20, 25, and 30 km as auxiliary variables. Most (r2). The linear relationshipis particularlyremark- of the results shown in the diagrams are based on the KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO' RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 (a)1.2 ß I ' I ' I ' I (b)1.2 ' 'I'I'I LayerC• (SW) o ._• LayerC• (NE) 1 standard 0.8 deviation ß 0.8 o standard deviation ß u• 0.6 & 0.6 'u 0.4 • 0.4 'd 0.2 '•. 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 - v 2 •,• v 3 0.2 coefficien• i i i , I . , , , I , , , , I , u O 4 ß -4 -3 -2 Grain size (½ scale) 1.2 ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I 1.2 ' standard ,, I , . . ,'•IF'"I,,•_, -1 0 1 _ _ A,•, •,,•, , ,i•, 2 ,• , , 3 4 Grain size (½ scale) ,,•1,•,,i,,,, LayerC2(SW) •o 6519 i,,,,1•,,, i,,,,i,,,, i,,,, LayerC2 (NE) deviation standard 0.8 deviation ß 0.8 o & 0.6 . ._ nt•l•.• 'u 0.4 ' ß weight coefficie oß' .' ' 'd 0.2 -4 -3 -2 -1 • 0.4 w ß ocoeficient ••,• '•. 0.2 .... 0 1 2 3 4 Grain size (½ scale) -4 I -3 .... I, -2 ,,, I,, -1 -- I .... 0 T ,•"",•,--..•k 1 , 2 ,,-. , •, 3 .... 4 Grain size (½ scale) Figure 5. The standarddeviationof the relationship betweenIn Si(r) and r 2 andthe weight coefficient as a functionof grainsize(•bscale)for layersC1 and C2 for (a) data from SW of the vent and (b) data from NE of the vent. Seepaper I for the definitionof the weightcoefficient. terminal fall velocitiesat 25 km, but the results for 20 Figure 5 shows the standard deviation in the relaand 30 km are alsolisted for comparisonin sometables. tionship between the logarithm of the mass per unit Subsequently, wedeterminepreferablerangesof release area and the square of distance from the vent as a func- altitude and corresponding preferablerangesof other tion of grain size (•b scale). The valuesof the standard deviation are large for fine and coarsegrain sizes. The granulometricdata in Figure 4 contain at least This is consistent with the impression that data are three kinds of errors;those are (1) errorsdue to re- scatteredfor fine and coarsegrain sizesin Figure 4. gionaleasterlywindin the stratosphere, (2) errorsdue The secondand third sourcesof errors would explain to localwind at loweraltitudes,and (3) analyticaler- the large standard deviation of fine and coarsegrain rors during sievinganalyses.The shapeof the isopach sizes, respectively. The wind at lower altitudes such as maps (Figure 1) suggests that there is considerable ef- that due to typhoonYunya [Oswaltet al., 1996]is exfect of the easterlyregionalwind in the stratosphere. pectedto locally modify sedimentationrate particularly The relationshipbetweenthe mass per unit area and for fine particles with terminal fall velocities smaller the distancefrom the vent also dependson direction than the local wind velocities. Sieved samplesin the from the vent;the massper unit areais systematically range coarserthan -3.0•b contain only a small number greaterin the downwind(SW) regionthan the upwind of grains(<10 grainsat somelocalities).The resultsfor (NE) andotherdirections (Figure4). The systematicsuchrangeschangeup to 10%, dependingon whether parameters. changein the rate of decreasein the masswith distance one grain passesthe mesh or not. depending on grainsizeis not evidentfor the samples Figure 5 alsoshowsthe weight coefficientdefinedby of the upwindregion.The effectsof the regionalwind equation(18) of paper I asa functionof grain size. The will be examinedby performingthe inversionmethods weight coefficientincreasesas the standard deviation of for the upwindanddownwind regionsseparately in the data decreases,and as the curvature of the error as a followinganalyses.More quantitativeevaluationfor the functionof modelparameters(Ei(m)) at the minimum effectof the regionalwind is givenin AppendixB. becomes narrower(seeequation(18) of paper 1). The 6520 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO' RECONSTRUCTION (a) 2 OF ERUPTION (b) COLUMNS, 2 LayerC• (NE) 20km 4 1.5 •' 1 -•0.5 ß -4 I . -3 I . -2 I -1 ß I . 0 I . I 1 2 . 3 . 0 I I . I -3 -4 4 3 o%._.,• ,• . -2 I , -1 I . I 0 . I 1 , 2 I . 3 Grain size (½ scale) Grain size (4• scale) 2 LayerC2 (NE) 4 ß 20km 30 ß -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 I -3 4 . I -2 Grain size (4• scale) ß I -1 , I 0 ß I ß 1 I 2 . I 3 Grain size (½ scale) Figure6. Theinverse oftheexpansion rate(1/lfi)asa function ofgrainsize(½scale) estimated by method1 for layersC1 and C2 for (a) data fi'omSW of the vent and (b) data fromNE of the vent. The estimatesfor individualrangesof grain sizeare normalizedby the weightedaverage (1/½w). curvatureof Ei(m) at the minimum dependson termi- 7). On the other hand, the eruption column dynamnal velocity;Ei(m) has a broaderminimumfor smaller ics model [Woods,1988] predictsthe relationshipbeterminal velocities. The weight coefficientis small for tweenNBL and the volumetricflow rate at NBL (VNe). . particles finer than 0½ for both layers C• and C2 because Becausethe release altitude is roughly equal to NBL, of the large standard deviations and broad minima of the actual expansion rate can be obtained at the inEi(m). From these featuresof weight coefficientit is tersection of the two relationships between expansion inferred that the estimated model parameter is largely rate and altitude. The effectsof the regional wind are determined by the data of coarseparticles and that the crudely evaluated using the approximation in section effect of local wind does not much affect the estimation of the expansion rate. 6.2 of paper 1 (seeAppendixB for procedures).When the effect of the regional wind is taken into account, Figure 6 showsthe inverseof the estimated expansion theestimate of lkwsystematically decreases fora given rate for individualrangeof grain size (½ scale)normal- releasealtitude (Table B1 in AppendixB). The prefer- of lkwaredetermined bythepossible range izedbytheweighted average (Vw/l/i).Forthedataof ableranges the downwind (SW) regionthe estimates of 1/lfi for different ranges of grain size are consistent as far as Expansion Ratel/w Determined the ranges whose weight coefficientshave high values Table 1. Volumetric are concerned. This result suggeststhat the basic as- by the GranulometricInversionMethod I a sumptionsof the dispersalmodel (seepaper 1) are appropriate for these ranges of grain size. We adopt the weighted averageof these data as the best estimates of the expansionrate for a given releasealtitude (Table 1). The results in Table 1 give a relationship between assumedrelease altitudes and Vw estimates (Figure AssumedAltitude, km Layer C1 Layer C2 20 25 30 6.8 X 1010 9.2 X 101ø 12 X 101ø 3.2 X 101ø 4.3 X 101ø 5.6 X 101ø ß alnm3/s. KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION = o E'•' OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 6521 Figures 8a and 8b show the variation of estimated 15 1) bymethod2 ona mapof theareaaroundPinatubo. Range predictedby the eruption column dynamics model (Woods, 1955) Lay•i•3C 1(•=0x10 -6) There are someregionaltendenciesin the estimated val- uesof 17bymethod2. Forthedatafromthedownwind (SW)regiontheestimates of1)bymethod2 areconsis- 10 LayerC1 ( • =5 x 10-6) tent with those of method 1. For localities in the west- •ayerC2(a=0x10-6) ern region,1) by method2 tendsto givea relatively o ß X -,--' 5 large value. The expansionrate has negative valuesfor layer C1 at somelocalitiesin the upwind (NE) region, which implies that the depositsbecomecoarser-grained mmmm ß m• mß LayerCz( • :5 x 10-6) mmmml mm O .m • x as the distance from the vent increasesin the upwind 0 10 15 20 25 30 direction. 35 The meaning of the results becomesclearer by taking Altitude (km) the value Figure 7. Diagram showingpossiblerangesof the altitude of the umbrella cloud and the expansionrate. The range is determined by the intersectionof the relation- 1 -- St, (1) ship basedon the eruptioncolumndynamics[Woods, where1)1and1)2arethe expansion ratesestimated by 1988]andtheestimated expansion rate(l/w)asa func- methodsI and 2, respectively(Figures8c and 8d). The tion of assumedreleasealtitudes (shadedzone). The value of 5t has a meaning of the differencein estimated possible ranges of therelationship between l/wandre- travel time betweenmethod I (tl) and method 2 (t2) lease altitudes are based on the results before and after as the correctionof the effect of regionalwind (Tables 1 and B1, respectively). t2 -- tl tl (2) (seeequation (3)of paper1). Considering that I7•is a of NBL versus I)NBrelationship andtherangebetween kind of spatial average,the magnitude of 6t is regarded as a measure of the deviation from the average travel the resultsof Table I and Table B1 (shadedareas in Figure7). They are 5-9 x101øma/s for layerC1 and time of the umbrella cloud. In (2) both the localities whichhavenegative 1)2andthe localities where1)2> 2.0-3.5 x 101øma/sforlayerC2. Thepreferable ranges 1)•shownegative anomaly of 6t. Therearezonesof a of releasealtitude are 22-25 km for layer C1 and 20-22 km for layer C2. These results will be compared with real-time observations negative anomaly of 6t in the western region for both layers C• and C2 and that of a strong negative anomaly in section 4. Fortheupwind(NE) region thevalues of (1/•i) es- in the upwind (NE) regionfor layer C•. It is inferred that the averagetravel time of the cloud was relatively timated from different ranges of grain size are diverse even for the rangeswhoseweight coefficientshave high short for these localities. The strong negative anomaly of 5t for layer C• in values(Figures5 and 6). This featuresuggests that the the upwind region indicates that the intensity of eruppresentinversionmethod (method 1) is inappropriate tion was fluctuating and only intensivepulseswith high for the samples of the upwind region. Possiblemechexpansionrate (short travel time) selectivelyreached anisms that lead to the relationship between the mass the upwindregion. The thickness(massper unit area) per unit area and the distance for the upwind samples in the upwind region systematicallydecreaseswith the will be considered below on the basis of method 2. distancefrom the vent (Figure 4). This is interpreted 3.2. Supplementary by Method 2 to reflect the fact that the number of the pulses which could reach the upwind localities decreaseswith the increasingdistance from the vent. Interpretation The most unrealistic assumptionthat leads to diverse 1)/by methodI forthe upwindregionis that effective duration of deposition(ra) is constantthroughoutthe investigatedarea. If the intensity of eruption was fluctuating, the umbrella cloudsof weak pulseswere largely conveyedby the regional easterly wind and they could not reach the upwind region. As a result, the effective duration of depositionmay have been substantially shorter in the upwind region. Becausemethod 2 does not assumethe constanteffectiveduration (see equations (9) and (10) of paper 1), we can apply it to the upwind samples to interpret the relationship between the mass per unit area and the distance. 3.3. Size Distribution at the Top of the Eruption Column Grain-size distribution of class II fragments at the top of the eruption column (i.e., at the center of the umbrella cloud) is estimatedfrom $i(O)/vi (compare equation (7) of paper 1). The valuesof $i(0) are redetermined by applying a least squaresmethod to the samplesfrom the downwind(SW) regionwith a fixed auxiliaryvariableof l/wfor all the ranges of grainsize (Table 2). We can also calculategrain-sizedistribution of class II fragments at the top of the eruption 6522 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 columnfrom S• (0), whichis determinedby the simple 3.4. Total Amount of the Ejecta leastsquares method withoutfixed1• (Table2). The We estimate the total amount of class II and class III differencebetween the results by the two least squares methods is not significant. fragments(SII+iII) on the basisof the dispersalmodel The results show that classII fragments in layer C2 and the idea of Walker's[1980]crystal concentration are systematicallydepletedin coarsefragments(<0•b) comparedwith layer C1 (Figure 9). It is inferredthat there were somedifferencesin sortingprocesses in rising eruption columns or possibly differencesin fragmentation processesduring explosionsbetween layer C1 and layer C2. method (see paper I for detailed method) as an approximate total amount of ejecta. Becauseplagioclase is the predominantfree crystal in the deposits(Figure 2), the methodis appliedto the data of the massof free plagioclasecrystals per unit area. Figure 10 showsthe mass of classII plagioclaseper Layer C1 0 Q(Method 2)( X1 m/s) _=-2 , •e 10.s 'fO 20 40 60 80 . ß.7.0 •ßß16.2 21.4 15 ø 00" r- 0904 / so(sw) I. A I,,,I,,,IH-'I';'O' • Terminal fall velocity ¸) s 15;1 - ;;, ,-4.1 -2.7_4]. 5 3 0'4'9•-7'3 19.7 /"1' .-6.1 W ,3.2 _ .8.1o624'3'•13•"6••1 '- - oß ,29,4, (,s,0,(S, ,vv),,,, ',6.7•'; •'•9 12.1 •.5 ' •0km •.1 8.4 ' - I 30" 120 ø 00" (b) :80" ß 10 3 e- -2 V(Method2)(X10 m/s)-.ztI0904/s0(s,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i,, /0 20 40 60 80 100 6;1 ß3.6 \ ._. /Terminalfallvelocity (m/s) -; /.18.4 82 / 15 ø 00" 6.1.7', 8_.4.1 •__ 71.7,,' - i '5'7 3.21.2..3.•• /. 5.8.. 5.6 '9.7 •3.9 7.0 11..9 7• • 10.2 L 120 ø 00" I /,• -I Itt•, •_ J , ' T-'• -I _l U -- 32•1204/S0(S W) 4//1 m 47 i I,,,I,,,•,,,i,,,l,,,m ' , •Okm, 30" Figure8. Mapsshowing theexpansion rateestimated bymethod 2 (1•)andthedifference in estimatedtraveltime betweenmethod2 and methodI (St;seetext for definition).Star indicates thelocality ofthevent,anddotsindicate sampling localities. (a)l/for layerC•;(b)1•forlayer C2; (c) 5t for layerC1; (d) 5t for layerC2. Representative resultsof the relationship between InR(r, v) andv areshown in Figures 8aand8b. Forthedefinition ofinR(r,v) seeequation (10) of paper 1. KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO' RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 6523 (c} I I i Layer C1 N ½t -1.0 )"04-0'14 -3.3' -4.0•.0 10 km . ".0.33\_• . -0.53'•/-2.51 ß - 1 5 o 00" I -4.40 -3•04 .1.91 .2_._0.32 . 0.31 . 0.24 63 / 0.19 _•,,•.._34-0.03' 0 30 -"040 ' g ß I 1zo ø oo" 30" (d I i i Layer C2 dt N .0.29 .0.21 -0.28 • ;0.22 -0.29-.0,4_4:0.07 -./•6-2:10' /. ß e0 15 ø00"I-'0.23 n••O•-.6:•a ';.•• 48 , 0.•0 -0.38• •;06/ o.26 ;0.09 e0.37 120 o 00" 30" Figure 8. (continued) unit area against the square of distance from the vent. from Si(O) and Xi(O) usingequation(22) of paper 1 These data show scatter due to large errors because (Table 3). The rangesof thesequantitiesfor the preferof complicated procedures required to determine the able release altitudes are determined in a similar way massof plagioclasecrystals (sievingand modal analyses). The massof classII plagioclaseat r - 0, Xi(0), is obtained from these data usingthe same relationship as equation(14) of paper 1. In order to avoid the effect of the large errors in the plagioclasedata we used the valuesof Vw basedon the bulk deposits(Table 1) and the terminal velocitiesof plagioclase(the relation- to thoseof l/w (compare Figure7). The effectof re- The total amount of classII fragments and that of classII plagioclasecrystalsin the depositsare obtained timated from that in juvenile fragments.The juvenile fragmentsof the Pinatubo 1991 eruption are divided ß gional wind is taken into accountusing the results of Table B2 as well as Table 3. The preferableestimatesof the total amountof classII fragments(Sii) are 5.3-8.3 x10TMkg for layerCz and 5.3-8.2 x10TMkg for layer C2, and thoseof the total amount of classII plagioclase are 2.8-4.5 x10TMkg for layerCz and 2.9-4.6 x10TM shipfor Pclast -- 2700kg/m3 in Figure3 of paper1) as kg for layer C2. auxiliary variables in the least squares calculations. Modal abundanceof plagioclase in the magmais es- 6524 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 Table 2. Massper Unit Area at the Vent (Si(O)) Determinedby Method Layer C1 q5 20 km 25 km Layer C2 30 km SLSMb 20 km 25 km 30 km SLSMb -3.5 3.5 4.2 5.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3 3.8 4.8 6.6 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 4.6 6.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 7.9 7.6 7.8 2.7 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.4 5.2 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.6 8.8 8.6 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.6 6.3 5.7 I 13.9 13.2 17.5 14.9 13.9 13.1 17.1 14.5 13.8 12.9 16.7 14.1 13.6 12.9 16.8 14.1 10.6 11.7 19.4 21.3 10.7 11.5 18.7 20.3 10.7 11.2 17.8 19.2 0.5 2.9 4.6 5.7 10.9 12.9 20.2 1.5 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.6 25.2 23.9 22.6 23.0 2 2.5 6.2 2.0 6.0 1.9 5.9 1.9 6.6 2.9 19.1 11.3 18.2 10.8 17.5 10.6 19.9 13.6 3 3.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.1 >4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.3 0.7 0.2 4.3 0.7 0.2 4.2 0.7 0.2 6.9 1.3 0.2 21.1 aln kg/m2. bSimple leastsquares methodwithoutfixed1• (i.e.,$?(0)) usingthesamples collected in thedownwind (SW)region. into three types: porphyriticwhite pumice(80-90%) and crystal-poorgrayish pumice (10-20%) and very minor andesiticscoria[e.g.,Pallister et al., 1992,1996; David et al., 1996]. Modal analyseson thin sections %. The total crystal abundance(includingmicrophenocrysts)of the white pumicegiven in Table 4 (-•70 wt %) is apparentlyhigherthan previousresults[e.g., Bernardet al., 1996;LuhrandMelson,1996;Pallister were carried out for 13 samples of the white pumice et al., 1996],althoughthe abundanceof plagioclasein and 2 samplesof the grayishpumicein this study (Table 4). Crystals >0.1 mm in diameter are counted as phenocrysts(or microphenocrysts) in these analyses. The white pumice contains44 wt % plagioclase phenocrystsand the grayishpumicecontains20 wt % plagioclasephenocrystsand microphenocrysts.Assuming that the ratio of the white pumice and the grayish pumiceis 85:15,the proportionof plagioclase phe- Table 4 is consistentwith the result by Luhr and Mel- nocrysts in magma is estimated to have been •-40 wt 0.5 o 0.4 • 0.3 ...,...,..., ..__.LayerC 1 • LayerC2 I // /// - >, 0.2 ß / _a 0.1 I"' •' 0 -4 I -2 multipliedby the modal weightpercentin Table 4. The calculatedbulk chemicalcompositionon the basisof the presentresult agreeswell with the publishedbulk chemical composition. If we assumethat all the plagioclasephenocrystswere depositedas classII fragments, we can estimate the to- tal amountsof layerC1 and layerC2 usingequation(25) of paper I (Table 5). The rangesof the total amount by this method, in which the preferable release altitudes and the effect of regional wind are taken into account, are determined from the results in Tables 5 and B3 (compare Figure7). Theyare0.7-1.1 X1012kg for layer C1 and 0.7-1.1 X1012kg for layer C2. This result implies that the proportion of class III fragments is 26-27 wt % for layer C1 and 28-29 wt % for layer C2. These estimatesare in agreementwith the previous independent estimates, which are based on the empirical thickness-distancerelationship for on land deposits; / o son [1996]. In order to confirmthe presentresult we calculated the bulk chemical composition from chemical compositionof each mineral and glasscomposition 0 . . . I . , 2 , I ß ß . 4 6 Grain size (• scale) Figure 9. Size distribution of class II fragments at the top of the eruption column for layers C1 and C2. The estimated model parameters and the terminal fall theyrangefrom1.3x 1012to 1.9x 1012kg forthe sumof layersC1 and C2 [PinatuboVolcanoObservatoryTeam, 1991; Scott et al., 1991, 1996; Paladio-Melosantos et al., 1996;Koyaguchi, 1996].However,for the following reasons,we considerthat a part of the plagioclasebelongs that this size distribution doesnot include fine particles to classI or III due to sortingand/or fragmentationof crystalsand that the abovevaluesmay underestimate of classIII, which occupy•-50% of the total ejecta. the total amounts of the ejecta. velocities at 25 km are Used in the calculation. Note KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 (a) Layer C 1 6525 (b)LayerC2 4 4 2 ß,.,.,.,.,.,.,.] o 0 -2 •O•oo• t ß ... ß -8 0 i . i 4 . , o o NEI:1 8 i . , . 12 16 0 ! :o.,,.... 4 ß i , 8 i ß . ! . 12 0 0 [] ß (/)-2 [] SE I-I o NWI- I , ß o -4 -6 -1.5•) 2 -4 InSEl -6 t ß -80 16 4 16 , . , 0 . 4 , . , . , . 8 12 16 4 2 2 0 0 o • -2 AA % ß o (/)-2 -4 -4 -6 -6 0 1.5• -80 o'''•'''•''';2''' 16 4 4 . , . ,., , 16 . , . , . , . , 0 . [] -1 .o•) -8 '''•'''•''';2''' 16 4 2 2 0 0 o -2 C:-2 -4 -4 -6 o 0 o (/)-2 -6 2.0• -8 -80 4 8 12 -8 16 0 4 4 0'-% -6 ............... 0 16 o 0% -4 -0.5 • '' '•i'' '•'' '1'2'''16 4 2 2 0 0 "' o (/)-2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 '80 0:ø.*, ........ 4 8 12 ,'2' 16 -80 4 •.'o o 2 0 4[3 o c:-2 o o ß (p A& o -4 AA ß o o [] (/) -2 ß c 0.5• -8 -8 / 0 4 8 12 16 0 (distance) 2fromthevent(x108km2) (distance) 2fromthevent(x108km2) -4 -6 0.5• -80' ' ''i' AA ß ß o c -2 4 -6 _ 2 0 ' '•' ....16 ' '1'2 -6 3.0• 80 4 .......... 8 12 16 (distance) 2fromthevent(x 10skm2) (distance) 2fromthevent(x 10skm2) Figure 10. Relationshipsbetweenlogarithm of massof plagioclasefree crystalsper unit area for individualsievingintervals(0.5½interval) and squareof distancefrom the vent for (a) data of layer C1 and (b) data of layer C2. The symbolsare sameas Figure 4. The first reasonis that the sizedistribution of plagioclase at the top of eruption column, which is obtained crystalscomparedwith that in the magmaand its range is similarto that of the bulk depositsfor both layersC1 from Xi(0), deviatesfrom the originalsizedistribution and C2 (Figure9 and Figure 11). It is suggested that in the magma, which is obtained by carefully crushing plagioclasecrystalsand pumicegrainsare influencedby juvenile clasts or by calculating from two-dimensional a common sorting processduring transportation. size distribution in thin sections. It is depleted in coarse The second reason is that some observations indicate that considerableparts of plagioclasephenocrystswere fragmented and becameclassIII fragments. First, the Table 3. Total Amount of Class II Fragmentsand proportion of fragmentedcrystals is higher in the free ClassII PlagioclaseDeterminedby Method I a crystalsof the tephra fall deposits(•90%) than the Layer C t Layer C2 phenocrystsin thin sections(•,-50%). Second,the obser20 km 25 km 30 km 20 km 25 km 30 km vationsusingthe scanningelectronmicroscope(SEM) indicatethat the fine-ashdepositscontainangularfragClass II Fragments ments, which are consideredto be fragmented crystals 7.5 8.3 9.4 7.7 8.8 10.0 as well as fragments with bubble wall surface. The fol(0.18) (0.18) (0.19) (0.069) (0.074) (0.079) lowingtwo observationswouldalsosuggestthat part of plagioclasephenocrystsmust have beenfragmentedto Class H PlagioclaseFree Crystals becomeclassIII fragments. 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.3 5.0 5.8 In the Pinatubo case,fine ash fell out as aggregates aln unitsof x10TMkg. Numbersin parentheses indicate accompaniedby "muddy rain fall" or as accretionary the amountof pumicelargerthan classII plagioclase (Sp). lapilli to form layer B or to lead to the bimodal size dis- 6526 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 Table 4. Modal Composition in JuvenileFragmentsof Table 5. Total Amount of Ejecta Determined by the Modified Crystal Concentration Methoda Pinatubo 1991 Eruption a WhitePumice b GrayPumice c Bulkd LayerCt 20 km Quartz 2.6 0.9 2.3 Plagioclase 43.9 20.2 40.3 Biotite Hornblende Fe-Ti oxide Other minerals Matrix Total 1.0 18.1 2.9 0.8 30.7 100.0 0.3 5.5 1.6 1.0 70.6 100.0 0.9 16.2 2.7 0.8 36.7 100.0 aln wt %. bAverageof 13 samples. cAverageof 2 samples. dAverageassumingthat white pumice: gray pumice -85:15. 25 km Layer C2 30 km 20 km 25 km 30 km All the PlagioclasePhenocrystsBelong to ClassH 10 11 13 11 12 15 (27) (27) (26) (29) (29) (30) Proportionof Plagioclasein ClassIII Fragmentsof 27 wt 16 18 20 17 20 24 (53) (53) (52) (56) (56) (56) Proportionof Plagioclasein ClassIII Fragmentsof 25 wt 15 16 18 16 18 22 (50) (49) (49) (52) (52) (53) tribution in layer C2. The proportionof plagioclase in Proportionof Plagioclasein ClassIII Fragmentsof 29 wt fine ashcanbe crudelydeterminedby X-ray diffraction 18 19 21 19 22 26 (XRD) (for detailedmethod,seeKlugandAlexander (57) (57) (56) (60) (60) (61) [1974]). Preliminaryresultsindicatethat plagioclase fragments occupy27 q-2 wt % of the fineashof layer aln unitsof x10TMkg. Numbersin parentheses indicate C2. Theyalsooccupy35q-2wt % of layerB and•32q-2 the fractionof classIII fragments(wt %). wt % of fineparticlessmallerthan 4•bin this layer. The errorsof the aboveanalysesare basedon the standard deviationof repeatedmeasurements. Judgingfrom the most of plagioclasein the fine ash is consideredto be fact that the groundmass of the whitepumiceis glassy, derived from fragmentedphenocrysts. Figure 11 showsthat the grain-sizedistributionob--e -in magma (calculatedtrom 2D) .-.o---inmagma (carefullycrushing) • 25 -' abovethevent(LayerC•) abovethevent(LayerC2) 6 amount of classII plagioclasedoes not representthe total amount of plagioclasein the magma,but it is affectedby fragmentationand sortingprocesses. The total amount of ejecta can be estimated from a weak shock. 0 0 2 Grain size (qbscale) 4 the effect of mechanical . • d"" -2 in thin sections. shockduring crushingthe matrix glass;someof the juvenile clastswere dipped into HNO3 solutionfor a few days before crushing. No systematicdifferencecould be recognizedbetweenthe resultswith and without the chemicaltreatments. The resultsof crushedjuvenile clastsmay supportthat plagioclasephenocrysts in the magma are fragile and becomefiner grains with only 5 -4 size distribution ments in order to minimize 20 10 from two-dimensional When we determined the crystal grain size by crushing juvenile clasts, we attempted several chemicaltreat- . . . , . . . , . . . , ß . ß , . ß ß wt% 15 tained by carefully crushingjuvenile clastsis depleted in coarsecrystals compared with that by calculating These observations indicate that the the supplementary methodusingequation(26) of pa- Figure 11. Size distribution of plagioclasefree crys- per 1, if we can somehowdeterminethe proportionof in classIII fragments.In the presentcase, tals in class II at the top of the eruption column for plagioclase layersC1 and C2 (solidcurve) and sizedistributionof it would be reasonableto assumethat the aboveproplagioclasephenocrystsin the juvenile materials. The portionof plagioclase in the fine ashof layerC2 (27 q-2 size distribution of plagioclasein the juvenile materials wt %) represents the originalfeaturesof classIII fragis obtainedby carefullycrushingjuvenile clasts(dotted mentshangingin the atmosphereduring the climactic curve)andalsoby calculatingfromtwo-dimensional size distributionin thin sections(dashedcurve). Details of Plinian phase. On the other hand, the proportionof plagioclase in classII (Xn/Sn) is •55 wt % in layerC1 the method to calculate from 2-D size distribution to 3(Table3). The D sizedistributionwill be describedelsewhere(M. Ohno and •56 wt % in layerC2, respectively and T. Koyaguchi,manuscriptin preparation,2001). total amountsof layer C1 and layer C2 estimatedfrom KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 these values are listed in Table 5. The ranges of the estimates, in which the preferable release altitudes and the effect of regional wind are taken into account, are 0 ! i i , ! ! i ! ! , ! , 6527 ß ! ! ! i ! ! determinedfrom the resultsin Tables 5 and B3 (com- pareFigure7). They are 1.0-1.9 x 10TMkg for layerC1 and 1.1-2.0 x 1012kg for layerC2. Theseresultsimply that the proportionsof classIII fragmentsare 48-57% for layer C1 and 51-60% for layer C2. Becausethe estimates of this method are sensitive to the proportion of plagioclasein classIII fragments, we took into account the analytical error of XRD (+2 wt %) in determining T the above ranges. _E- 20 ................................... •,'........... The estimates of the total mass on the basis of the 15 .................. :................... :.................. •............. -f....:............. 10 proportionof plagioclasein the fine-ashlayer (2.1-3.9 x10TMkg as a whole)are consistent with the previous estimateswhich are obtained by applying the empirical thickness-distancerelationship to the distal area includ- ing the SouthChinaSea(rangingfrom 3 to 4.8 x 1012 kg) [Scottet al., 1991,1996; Wiesnerel al., 1995; Wiesnet and Wang,1996; Paladio-Melosantos et al., 1996]. Consideringthat these estimatesrely on different basic ideas, the agreement of the results of the two methods is surprising. We emphasizeagain that the above estimatesare sensitive to the proportion of plagioclasein classIII fragments. If we use the proportion of plagioclasein layer B (35 q-2 wt %) insteadof that of the fine ash in layer C2, the estimatesof total massbecome3.3-10.1 x 1012 kg. The origin of the variation in proportion of plagioclasebetween layers B and C2 is unclear at present. 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Velocity (m/s) Figure 12, Velocity structuresof rising eruption columnswhich explain the granu]ometricdata of layer Cl (so]ia cues) C: (ashea cues). explanation see text. intensity of the eruption was highest during the first half of the climactic phase and declined with time from layer C1 to layer C2. Judgingfrom the high proportion of very fine particles,most of the juvenile materials can Size distributions of fine ash in layer C2 and those in be assumedto have thermally equilibrated with the atlayer B, which were measuredutilizing the scattering mosphereimmediately. Substitutingthe magma temof a laser beam through a stream of particles, do not perature of 1000 to 1100 K, which has been estimated depend on the distance from the vent or whether they from two-oxide geothermometryand stability field of 1993;Imai et al., 1993, 1996] belongto layer B or C2. This observationsuggeststhat amphibole[Rutherford, (for critical assessment of theseestimations,see Koythe effectof sortingis limited for the fine ashin thesedeaguchi [1996]), and the typical value (1100 J/(K kg)) posits. Although SEM observationshowsno systematic of the specific heat of magma [ Woods andKienle, 1994] differencein shapeof fragmentsbetweenthe two stratiinto equation (28) of paper 1, we can estimatemagma graphic units, the fragmentation mechanismmay have dischargerate from the rate of thermal release to be been different betweenbefore and during the climactic Plinian phase. In order to verify the present method, further study on the origin of class III fragments is necessary(M. Ohno and T. Koyaguchi,manuscriptin preparation,2001). The aboveresultsalso containerrors causedby the overestimationof the bulk density of deposit(at mosta few tensof percent);however,this effect would be within the errors due to the uncertainties of the proportion of plagioclasein classIII fragments. 6.0-11 x108kg/s for layerC1 and2.5-4.3 x108kg/s for layer C2. These results and the estimates of the total •mount of the ejecta yield the effective duration of the eruptionsof 0.4-0.6 hour for layer C1 and 1.1-1.4 hours for layer C2. The estimates of the effective duration can be assessed on the basis of the real-time obser- vations(section4). Possiblevelocitystructuresof risingeruption columns, whichexplainthe abovemagmadischargerates and the grain-size distributions at the top of the eruption column (Figure 9), are calculatedon the basisof the fluid If the effect of the entrainment of the ambient air at dynamicsmodelby Woods[1988](Figure 12). It is reathe top of the cloud can be assumedto be negligible sonableto assumethat the terminalfall velocityof the [e.g., Sparkset al., 1997],the rate of thermal energy coursersideof cutoffsizeof classII fragmentsroughly release can be estimated from the volumetric expan- represents the minimumrisingvelocityof the eruption sion rate of the umbrella cloud to be -•5-9 X10 TMW column.The velocitystructuresare characterizedby a for layer C1 and -•2-3.5 X10TMW for layer C2 using distinctdeceleration in the gasthrust region;the minequation(27) of paper 1. This result suggeststhat the imumvelocityat the top of the gasthrustr.egion is 3.5. Dynamics of Eruption Column 6528 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 Table 6. Comparison Between Granulometric Estimates and Other Observations GranulometricEstimate (This Study) Other Observation Volumetric FlowRateI•, m3/s 5- LayerC• 5 - 9 x 10TM LayerC2 2 - 3.5 x 10TM 10 x 10TM• MassDischarge Rate1•, kg/s 6- 12 x 10s c > 109d LayerC• 6.0- 11 x l0 s b LayerC2 2.5- 4.3 x l0 s b Total Mass, kg 59- LayerC• 1.0- 1.9(0.9) x 10• e LayerC• 1.1- 2.0 (0.9) x 10• e 25 x 10• f 15 x 10•2 g Duration, hours LayerC• 0.4 - 0.6(0.3) e,h LayerC• 1.1- 1.4(0.8) e,h LayerC• 3.5 i LayerC2 7 i Minimum Rising Velocity,m/s Layer C• 50 - 100 Layer C2 20- 50 supported by generation of pyrocalstic flow aSatellitedata [Koyaguchiand Tokuno,1993;Holaseket al., 1996a]. bEstimate fromgranulometric 1•. Estimate from satellite 1•. dEstimatefrom columnheightand cloudtop temperature[Holaseket al., 1996a;Koyaguchi,1996]. eNumbersin parenthesesare estimatesassumingthat all the plagioclasecrystalsbelongto classII. fEstimatefrom satelliteimagesand the dynamicsmodel[Koyaguchi,1996]. gEstimatefrom columnheight [Holaseket al., 1996a]. hSli+III/M. iEstimatefrom infrasonicdata [Tabira et al., 1996]. 50-100 m/s for layer C1 and 20-50 m/s for layer C2. 4. Comparison It is suggestedthat the condition of the eruption was close to that of column collapse, particularly for the Observations With Real-Time The most usefuldata that can be directly compared with the presentestimationsare the satellite images idea is supported by the fact that layer C2 locally conof expanding eruption cloud (for detailed description, tains silt-sizeparticles, which may have originated from see Koyaguchi and Tokuno[1993]and Holaseket al. coignimbriteashclouds(Figure 1), and by stratigraphic [1996a]). The climactic phaseof the Pinatubo 1991 evidence that some pyroelastic flows are interbedded eruptionof layer C2 [Bursik and Woods,1991]. This in layersC1 and C2 in the proximalarea [Scottet al., A summary of the parameters of eruption column dynamics reconstructedby granulometric data is given on the left-hand side of Table 6. In addition to these parameters we can calculate total height of the eruption column, temperature of the cloud top, and velocity and radius just after decompressionat the vent on the basis of the fluid dynamicsmodels[e.g., Woods,1988](Table 7). For thesecalculationsthe water contentin magma is assumedto be 6 wt % on the basisof the experimen- Table 7. Calculated Parameters of Eruption Column Dynamics Which Are ConsistentWith the Results in Figure 12a Column height, km Altitude of NBL, km Cloud top temperature, øC Vent radius, •m aAll the calculations Layer C• Layer C2 34- 36 23 - 24 -92--84 29 - 30 21 - 22 -102- -98 610 - 680 435- 455 are based on the model of Woods tal data by Rutherford[1993]. Accordingto extensive [1988]underthe tropicalconditionfor the magmatempernumericalstudiesof a wider rangeof parameters[e.g., ature of 1000 K, water contentof 6 wt %, and the magma specificheat of 1100 J/(K kg). Koyaguchi,1996],the quantitiesin Table 7 dependon bRadiusof plume just after decompression to I atm at the assumedwater content in magma to a considerable the vent. This radius dependson assumedmagma water extent. content rather sensitively. KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO' RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 eruption started at 1342 LT (local Philippine time) of June 15, judging from the fact that all the seismographs were saturated at the time. A distinct disc-shapedcloud appeared in the satellite images at 1440 LT. According to the eyewitnessaccounts, fine ash fall with rain started in the morning and became heavy after 1400 LT, even in the upwind region. Intermittent lapilli fall started between 1400 and 1445 LT, and it became very heavy and continuousafter 1500 LT even in the upwind region. Considering the eyewitnessaccounts and the timescalefor pumice grains to reach the ground from the bottom of the cloud, it is inferred that the giant cloud observedfrom 1440 LT onward yielded the lapilli 6529 was higher than that of layer C2. However, the duration in which the strong infrasonicwaveswere observed (•10 hours)are muchlongerthan the effectiveduration which is estimatedby dividing the total amount of the ejectaby the magmadischarge rate (Table 6). The estimates of the total amount, and hencethe estimatesof effectiveduration dependon the assumedproportion of plagioclasein classIII fragments. If the proportion of plagioclasein layer B is used instead of that of the fine ash in layer C2, the estimates of the effective duration increase up to 0.6-1.4 hours for layer C1 and 1.7-3.5 hours for layer C2; however,these values are still substantially shorter than the duration based on infrasonic fall of layer C1 and layer C2 [Koyaguchiand Tokuno, observation. 1993]. There are several possible explanations for this disThe cloudexpandedup to 280km in diameter(60,000 crepancyas follows: (1) The intensity of infrasonic km2) at 1440LT and400kmin diameter (120,000 km2) waves may not represent the intensity of magma disat 1540LT. It expandedup to 250 km upwind until 1940 chargerate, (2) the total amount of the ejecta is un- LT, covering an areaof 300,000km2, andsubsequently,derestimated,and (3) the magmadischargerate, which the east end of the cloud moved westward, at which is estimated from the volumetric expansionrate on the time the cloud reacheda stagnationpoint upwind but basis of the fluid dynamicsmodel, is too high. These continuedto grow downwindand crosswind.Average possibilities are assessedbelow. The duration in which the eruption cloud continradial expansionvelocity of the giant cloud was up to 102m/s before1440LT and •14 m/s between1440 ued to expand upwind was •5 hours [Koyaguchiand and 1540 LT. The thickness of the cloud is estimated to be •3-6 Tokuno,1993;Holaseket al., 1996a].Considering that km at the initial stage of the expansion the cloud can continue to expand even after the sup- [Koyaguchiand Tokuno,1993; Holaseket al., 1996a; ply at its source ceases, the effective duration of the Koyaguchi,1996]. From the top view of the cloudand eruption which induced tephra fall in the upwind rethe thicknessthe volumetric expansionrate is estimated to be 5-10 x101øm3/s.The present granulometric es- gion should be shorter than 5 hours. If we adopt, for example, the duration of the intensive infrasonic wave timate agreeswith this satelliteobservation(Table 6). (3.5 hours)as the effectiveduration, it agreeswith the Considering the effectof changein cloudthickness(sec- result on the basis of our highest total mass estimation tion 6.3 in paper1), the presentgranulometric estimates using the upper bound of the proportion of plagioclase of 1• maybe regarded asan overestimation by a few in classIII (i.e., 37 wt % in layer B). tens of percent; however, this effect is within the errors causedby other uncertaintiesand will not modify the In the climactic phaseof the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, P linian eruptions and pyroclastic flows are thought to above conclusion. have been synchronous [e.g., Scott et al., 1996]. The The granulometric estimates predict that the inten- present methods may underestimate the total amount sity of the eruption was highestat the initial stageand of ejecta which contributed to the dynamicsof eruption declinedwith time. This time dependenceis also sup- cloud for such eruptions. Even if thermal energy was ported by the satellite images. Dimensionalanalyses suppliedfrom coignimbritefine ash to the eruption colindicate that the radius of the umbrella cloud increases umn as well as pyroclasts from the vent, the amount of with timein proportion to t2/a whenthe gravitycur- the coignimbrite ash cannot be countedby the present rent of the umbrella cloud is maintainedby a steady method based on classII fragments. In order to assess eruption[Holaseket al., 1996b;Sparkset al., 1997]. this possibility,thorough investigationof the pyroclasThe observedradius,on the other hand, increases.ap- tic flow depositsand coignimbriteash is necessary. proximatelyin proportionto t •/2. The difference in the We anticipate that the third possibilitywould also be rate of the increase in the radius of the cloud can be important because the overestimation of magma discharge rate is a natural consequenceof the discrepexplainedby the decliningintensity of the eruption. The changein the intensityof the eruption with time ancy betweenthe volumetric expansionrate of umbrella wasobservedthroughreal-timemonitoringof infrasonic cloudsand the volumetric flow rate at NBL. Previously, waves. Strong infrasonic waves due to a series of explosion were measured for >10 hours from •1400 LT it has been commonly assumedthat entrainment of the climacticeruption for 3.5 hours. These data are quali- ics of the cloud top inevitably results in entrainment of the ambient air at the edge of plume. After the plume risesto NBL the plume keepsrising although subjected ambientair at the cloudtop and/or the surfaceof the [Tahiraet al., 1996]. The amplitudeof the infrasonic umbrellacloudis negligible[Bursik et al., 1992; Koywaveswas particularly high at the initial stageof the aguchi,1994;Sparkset al., 1997].However,the dynamtatively consistent with the conclusion drawn from the granulometricdata that the expansionrate of layer C1 6530 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO' RECONSTRUCTION OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 to a downward gravitational force. The plume's momentum will carry it to a final height from which it will slump back gravitationally toward NBL. According to our preliminary laboratory experimentsin stratified 1.9 1.8 salty water and numericalstudies(Y. Ishimineand T. Koyaguchi,manuscriptin preparation,2001), this overshoot induces strong oscillation of the umbrella cloud near the edge of plume, which results in considerable entrainment of surroundingfluid into the umbrella region. The expansionrate of the umbrella cloud therefore becomessubstantiallygreater than the volumetric flow rate at NBL, which may be sufficient to explain the overestimation of the magma dischargerate. Further study of the dynamics of the cloud top is still in progress. In addition to the above discrepancywe point out that there seem to be some inconsistencies between the 1.7 1.6 1.,5 1.4 .... 0 •• 5 .... 6 10 a (x10-) ] 15 Figure B1. The variationof the averagestandarddeviation(for data from -2½ to 3½)as a functionof a for layer C1. Seeequation(34) of paper 1 for the definition estimatesbasedon eruption column height or cloud top of •. temperature and those based on expansionrate of umbrella clouds. Infrared imagesindicate that the surface temperature of the giant cloud was > -60øC and there of the umbrella cloud was 35 km at 1440 LT, and it sub- wasa smallhot spot (a few tens of kilometersin diam- sequentlydecreased downto 24 km in 2 hours[Holasek eter) with temperatureup to • -30øC at the centerof et al., 1996a]. Other studiessuggestthat the altitude the cloud at 1440 and 1540 LT. These temperature data, as well as the width of the shadowonto the surrounding white clouds,indicate that the total height of the cloud reached •40 km at the climactic phase of the eruption of the eastern edge of the umbrella cloud was 25 km at 1540 LT [Tanaka et al., 1991; Koyaguchiand Tokuno, 1993]. Taking the thicknessof the cloudinto account (3-6 km), NBL at 1440 LT is estimatedto have been (1540 LT) [Tokuno,1991a,1991b;Tanakaet al., 1991; higher than 29 km, which is substantiallygreater than from1• on the basisof the fluid Koyaguchiand Tokuno,1993;Holaseket al., 1996a]. A the valuepredicted seriesof calculationswith a wide range of parameters on dynamicsmodel (seeFigure 7). The altitude of the top the basisof the fluid dynamicsmodelby Woods[1988] oftheumbrella cloudafter1540LT.(•-25km)isconsisindicated that these values of column height and cloud tent with the value predicted from V• and the present top temperature can be explained only by a very high resultsof releasealtitude (22-25 km for layer C1 and magmadischarge rate (>10• kg/s) [Koyaguchi, 1996]. 20-22 km for layer C•), consideringthe thicknessof the A similar inconsistencycan be found also in the es- cloud. timation of altitude of the umbrella cloud. Analyses of The above two discrepancieswould be explained by the satellite imagessuggestthat the altitude of the top the fact that cloud height and cloud top temperature respondinstantaneouslyto varying eruption rate, while expansionrate of an umbrella cloud representstime avlOO erage of varying eruption rate. In the Pinatubo case the estimates based on the expansion rate of the um-o-- LayerC• brella cloud may have failed to detect the most intense !-i -B - LayerC2 explosionat the beginningof the climactic phase. Although the presentmethodsare basedon expansionrate of umbrella clouds,it is possibleto detect the presence of short-termfluctuationsof eruptionrate; the granulometric data of layer C1 in the upwind region imply that there was fluctuation in eruptive conditionsduring the climacticphase(seesection3.2). lO . 1.5 . , ß I 2 . ß . . I 2.5 . . , , I 3 . ß . . I 3.5 , . . . I 4 . ß 5. . 4.5 Conclusion The agreement of the estimates of the volumetric expansion rate by the present method with the real-time Figure A1. Relationship betweenmassof plagioclasesatellite observations is remarkable. Some important freecrystalsandsquare-root of areasurrounded by each features of eruption column dynamics such as decelercontourof the isoplethmapsfor layerC1 (circles)and ation in the gas thrust region have been successfully layer C• (squares). reconstructed. It is important to bear in mind that the (isopleth area)ø'$(x 104 km) KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION present method is applicable to caseswhere the radial expansion rate of umbrella clouds largely exceedsthe effect of wind. The above agreementsare partly due to the fact that the intensity of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption was strong enoughto satisfy this condition. The largest sourceof errors in the present methods would be the estimation of total mass of the ejects. The result is sensitiveto the proportion of fragmented crystals in class III fragments. It is essential to understand the mechanismsto generate fine ash during explosiveeruptions in order to improve the accuracy of the present method. One of the most serious discrepanciesbetween the granulometric estimates and the real-time observations is that of the effectiveduration of eruption (or magma OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 6531 Table B2. Total Amount of Class II Fragmentsand Class II PlagioclaseAfter Correction of the Effect of Regional Wind a Layer C1 20 km 25 km Layer C2 30 km 20 km 25 km 30 km 6.0 7.0 Class H Fragments 5.1 5.6 (0.14) (0.15) 6.2 (0.16) 5.3 (0.060) (0.066) (0.071) Class H PlagioclaseFree Crystals 2.7 3.0 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.9 aNumbersin parenthesesindicate the amount of pumice thanclass II plagioclase ($p).In unitsof x1011kg; dischargerate). Judgingby the agreementin the es- larger c•-- 5 x 10-6 m -1. timates of the expansion rate between the two independent methods, we anticipate that the origin of the deviation would lie in modeling that connectsthe dynamicsof eruption columnsto the dynamicsof umbrella clouds,rather than the dispersalmodel of the umbrella clouds itself. The effect of atmospheric entrainment at the cloud top is consideredto be a significant sourceof the deviation. Alternatively, contemporaneousPlinian activity and generation of pyroclastic flows in the climactic eruption may explain this discrepancy. These effects should also be examined in the future. Finally,we pointout that if intensityof eruptionfluctuates with time, the resultsof instantaneousobservations such as cloud height in satellite images do not alwaysagreewith the averagefeaturesof the eruption estimatedby the presentmethods. The presentmethods can, however,qualitatively detect the presenceof fluctuations of eruption rate. where k is a constant determined by the isopleth map in the accessibleregion. In more general, the distance, r, can be replaced by the square-rootof the area of the isopleth contour. The total mass of the crystals is then obtained from XT - X(r)d(7rr2). (A2) Figure A1 showsthe relationship between the mass of plagioclasefree crystals and the square-rootof the area of the isopleth contour for layers C• and C2. The total amounts of the plagioclasefree crystals on the basis of theserelationships are 1.8 x 1011kg for layer C• and 1.2 x 10TMkg for layer C2. Theseresultsare slightly smaller than the presentestimationsapplying equation (22) of paper I to plagioclasecrystals(seeTables3 and B2). Koyaguchi[1994]provedthat when the assumptions of the tephra dispersal model for class II holds, the empirical relationshipof the exponential decreasing Appendix A' Comparison With Fierstein and Nathenson's Method behavior (equation (A1)) can be extrapolatedtoward FiefsteinandNathenson [1992]proposed a methodto infinite distance for a specificinitial grain size, which estimate the total amount of ejecta in which the total is similar to a lognormaldistribution with a• •- 2.5. amount of crystalsare determinedby an empiricalex- The discrepancyof the two methods may be partly attrapolationand then the crystalconcentrationmethod tributed to the fact that the grain-size distribution of is applied. In their method the relationshipbetween plagioclasefree crystals is slightly deviated from the the massof free crystalsper unit area, X(r), and the specificgrain-size distribution in this case. distance, r, are given by X(r) = X(0)exp(-kr), (A1) Appendix B' Effect of Regional Wind In this appendix we crudely evaluate the effect of regional wind on the basisof the approximation presented Table B1. Volumetric Expansion Rate l•wAfter Cor- in section6.2 of paper 1. The least squaresmethod on rectionof the Effect of RegionalWinda the basisof equation(35) in paper 1 wasperformedfor AssumedAltitude, km Layer C1 Layer C2 20 25 30 4.3 x 101ø 5.9 x 101ø 7.7 x 101ø 2.1 X 1010 2.8 x 101ø 3.7 x 101ø SinmS/s;c•= 5 x 10-6 m-1. various(• from0 to 15 x 10-6 m-• (seepaper1 for the definition of (•). The effect of the regionalwind would be evaluated by the average standard deviation of the data (for data set from -2q• to 3q•)as a function of c• (Figure B 1). The standard deviation decreaseswith the increasing (•, and it has a minimumvaluearound(• = 9 x 10-6 6532 KOYAGUCHI AND OHNO: RECONSTRUCTION Table B3. Total Amount of Ejecta After Correction of the Effect of RegionalWind a Layer C1 20 km 25 km Layer C2 30 km 20 km 25 km 30 km All the PlagioclasePhenocrystsBelong to Class H 6.9 7.5 8.4 7.4 8.4 9.8 (26) (26) (25) (28) (28) (29) Proportion of Plagioclasein ClassIII Fragmentsof 27 wt •o 11 12 13 12 13 16 (52) (52) (51) (54) (54) (55) Proportion of Plagioclasein ClassIII Fragmentsof 25 wt •o 9.8 11 12 11 12 14 (49) (48) (48) (50) (51) (52) Proportion of Plagioclasein ClassIII Fragmentsof 29 wt •o 12 13 14 13 15 17 (56) (56) (55) (58) (58) (59) aNumbers in parenthesesindicate the fraction of classIII fragments (wt %). In unitsof x 10TMkg;c•= 5 x 10-6 m-1 OF ERUPTION COLUMNS, 2 Philippines, edited by C. G. Newhall and R. S. Punongbayan, pp. 767-797, Univ. of Wash. Press,Seattle, 1996. Bursik, M. I., and A. W. Woods, Buoyant, superbuoyant and collapsingeruption columns, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., •5, 347-350, 1991. Bursik, M. I., R. S. J. Sparks, J. S. Gilbert, and S. N. Carey, Sedimentation of tephra by volcanic plumes, I, Theory and its comparisonwith a study of the Fogo A Plinian deposit, Sao Miguel (Azores), Bull. Volcanol.,5•, 329344, 1992. David, C. P. C., R. G. Dulce, D. D. Nalasco-Javier, L. R. Zamoras, F. T. Jumawan, and C. G. Newhall, Changing proportionsof two pumice types from the June 15, 1991, eruption of Mount Pinatubo, in Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines,edited by C. G. Newhall and R. S. Punongbayan,pp. 681-685, Univ. of Wash. Press, Seattle, 1996. Fierstein, J., and M. Nathenson, Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra volumes, Bull. Volcanol., 5•, 156-167, 1992. Hoblitt, R. P., E. W. Wolfe, W. E. Scott, M. R. Couchman, J. S. Pallister, and D. Javier, The preclimacticeruptions of Mount Pinatubo, June 1991, in Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, edited by C. G. Newhall and R. S. Punongbayan,pp. 457-511, Univ. of Wash. Press, Seattle, 1996. Holasek, R. E., S. Self, and A. W. Woods, Satellite observations and interpretation of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption plumes, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 27,635-27,655, 1996a. m-1 Holasek, R. E., A. W. Woods, and S. Self, Experiments on gas-ashseparation processesin volcanic umbrella plumes, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 70, 169-181, 1996b. The value of a corresponds to wind velocityof Imai, A., E. L. Listanco,and T. Fujii, Petrologicand sul- •030m/sforanumbrella cloud of1••05x 1010 m3/sand 5 km thick, which is slightly greater than the meteorologicaldata; however,we must be carefulin interpreting this result, becausethe approximationof equation(33) of paper I is no longerrelevantfor large r (more than severaltensof kilometers) whena > 10x 10-6 m-1 and so the minimum total error may not accurately represent the best estimation. The conclusion that we can safely derive from these considerationswould be that the effect of regional wind is present and that a may be aslargeas 5 x 10-6 m-1. The model parametersfor a - 5 x 10-6 m-1 are listed in Tables B1, B2, and B3, which correspond to Tables 1, 3, and 5, respectively. Without the correction on the effectsof regional wind, the expansionrate and the total amount of ejecta may be overestimated by severaltens of percent. These effectsare therefore taken into accountin determiningthe preferablerangesof the estimates in section 3. Acknowledgments. 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