ARTICLE IN PRESS Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 www.elsevier.com/locate/biombioe Siting analysis of farm-based centralized anaerobic digester systems for distributed generation using GIS Jianguo Maa,, Norman R. Scotta, Stephen D. DeGloriab, Arthur J. Lembob a Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA b Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA Received 20 June 2003; received in revised form 29 November 2004; accepted 16 December 2004 Available online 27 March 2005 Abstract There is growing interest in installing anaerobic digesters (ADs) on farms to use animal wastes as a biomass resource for both economic value and environmental benefit. This potential expansion prompts the need for land suitability assessment. In this paper, a GIS model is proposed for land-suitability assessment of potential energy systems featuring an AD coupled with an energy generator. A variety of environmental and social constraints, as well as economic factors are integrated in the model to help determine the optimal sites for installing such systems. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is employed to estimate the factors’ weights in order to establish their relative importance in site selection. The model is then applied to Tompkins County, New York as a case study for demonstration. A siting suitability map was produced to identify those areas that are most suitable for distributed bio-energy systems using dairy manure. The results showed that this GIS-based model, by integrating both spatial data and non-spatial information, was capable of providing a broad-scale and multidimensional view on the potential bio-energy systems development in the area of study to account for environmental and social constraints as well as economic factors. The model can be modified for evaluating other biomass resources. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Biomass; Anaerobic digestion; Distributed generation (DG); GIS; AHP 1. Introduction Methane gas is produced naturally from dairy manure in the absence of oxygen and released into Corresponding author. Tel: +1 607 255 2012; fax: +1 607 255 4080. E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Ma). the atmosphere. An anaerobic digester (AD) energy system promotes methane production, captures and converts it to electricity and heat for on-farm use or sale to the local utility [1,2]. Biogas produced in AD primarily consists of methane which is about 50–60% for a typical plug-flow AD. The rest of the biogas includes carbon dioxide (40–50%) and other trace gases 0961-9534/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2004.12.003 ARTICLE IN PRESS 592 J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 such as hydrogen sulfide and nitrogen [1,3]. AD for combined heat and power (CHP) generation at the farm level began in the United States in the early 1970s and many projects were developed in the 1980s. However, the digester industry has seen a reduction to a small number of operating systems today because of numerous reasons, including poor design and high cost. In recent years, an increasing awareness that AD can help mitigate odor and help with nutrient recovery along with economic benefits has stimulated renewed interest in the technology [2,4]. The success of centralized/community AD project in Europe, especially in Denmark and Germany, has provided good examples. In addition, dairy farmers faced with increasing federal and state regulations on animal wastes are looking for ways to comply. They are further encouraged by government support, such as the AgSTAR Program of EPA which promotes the use of methane recovery (biogas) technologies at concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). In light of these developments, animal wastes have the potential to become important renewable energy resources. Because these resources tend to be highly sitespecific, it is important to know where they are available in addition to numerical assessment. A Geographic Information System (GIS), a computer system capable of assembling, storing, analyzing, and displaying geographically referenced information, is an ideal tool to address this issue. GIS has been used in a number of studies for determining optimal locations for various development plans such as waste disposal sites, power plants, and other applications [5,6]. A decision support tool based on GIS was developed to validate the siting of a new solar power plant at Skhira, Tunisia [7]. Similarly, GIS-based information was developed in the UK to assist in the decision-making process for locating wind farm sites [8]. The purpose was to find sites for wind farms that were both economically viable and environmentally friendly. Research performed in the UK using GIS showed how resource mapping and analysis could be used to identify sources of collectable farmyard manure in order to determine the potential for anaerobic digestion plants [9]. GIS-based decision support systems (DSS) have also been developed to identify location of biomass and evaluate economic costs for exploiting this resource [10–12]. 2. Problem definition It is unrealistic to install an AD-energy-generator set on every dairy farm. Instead, the bioenergy system could be installed on farms or new sites that satisfy a variety of environmental and social constraints exhibiting favorable economic and technical characteristics. Due to economies of scale, large farms are preferred, especially CAFOs which have more than 1000 dairy animal units or more than 300 animal units if wastes are potentially discharged to state waters [13]. In addition, some clustered small dairy farms may be interested in installing a centralized AD facility to collect wastes within a certain distance of the farms. Therefore, to promote the development of dairy manure-based bio-energy systems, it is essential to determine the suitable or best locations for such development. The electric and gas utility companies and energy investors are also interested in such information because it will guide energy planning and investment in any local region. This research has two main objectives. The first is to develop a mathematical model for use in a GIS environment to locate bio-energy systems. This model, integrating various environmental and social constraints as well as economic and technical factors, will help identify locations most suitable for considering distributed bio-energy systems. The second objective is to illustrate the implementation of the model within a GIS context by conducting a case study for Tompkins County, New York. 3. Methodology Locating optimal sites for power generation facilities is a complex task involving many environmental, economic, and social constraints ARTICLE IN PRESS J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 3.1. Exclusive constraints and factors. For example, residents consistently prefer that facilities such as power plants or CAFOs be located a certain distance from residential areas [14]. Citing aesthetic impacts and noise pollution as typical concerns, community reactions are often dubbed as not-in-mybackyard (NIMBY) syndrome [15]. In addition, economic factors also play a very important role in determining the viability of potential energy development projects. With these restrictions and other considerations on land use, the problem is then to develop an appropriate land suitability model (LSM) to determine the most suitable sites for potential development from a holistic perspective. This LSM aims to derive a siting suitability index, which is a quantitative measure of preference of land use for development and calculated on the basis of both constraints and factors as illustrated in Fig. 1. Different layers/grids of geographic data are mathematically manipulated in a GIS environment to obtain the suitability index. The GIS software packages used in this study include ArcViews and ArcInfos developed by Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). The following sections provide details on the variables and specific operations used in the model. Animal wastes have long been criticized as a primary source of air and water pollution, raising both environmental and social issues. Thus, the nature of bio-energy systems using dairy manure as a feedstock suggests that they must be properly sited to avoid sensitive areas, such as wetlands, residential areas, airports, etc. Within this model, we define these sensitive areas as ‘‘constraints’’ meaning they are restricted from development of dairy manure-based systems within the area. A buffer zone is usually required for each of these constraints to define the minimum distances of development sites to the selected geographic entity/feature. Different constraints correspond to different widths of buffer zones. A binary GIS grid is created for each constraint feature, with cells falling within a constrained area assigned ‘‘0’’ and cells falling outside the buffer area assigned ‘‘1’’. A single grid, or final constraint map, is calculated by multiplying all constraint layers/grids together (Fig. 1). For the ith cell in the final constraint map, its value is calculated as follows: Ci ¼ m Y C i;k , (1) k¼1 Layers of Factors Cell i Layers of Constraints Cell i C1 w1F1 x + C2 w2F2 x + Cm wnFn = C 593 = x F || suitability map Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of land suitability model (LSM). ARTICLE IN PRESS J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 594 where C i is the Boolean value (0,1) assigned to the ith cell in the final constraint grid, C i;k is Boolean value (0,1) assigned to the ith cell in the kth constraint grid, m is the number of constraints identified. The multiplication of the Boolean constraint grids result in the final constraint grid that will define cells to be constrained as long as they have a value of ‘‘0’’ in any one of the input layers. Only the cells that have a ‘‘1’’ in each input layer will have a non-zero value in the final result. In addition to exclusive constraints, the model considers certain selective factors that influence the selection of a potential site. These factors are best represented by distance. For example, the preferred criterion for AD systems would involve the location of the site as closely as possible to existing dairy farms for easy manure collection and transportation. The GIS is used to aggregate the factors into a single, final-factor grid (Fig. 1). A higher value for a cell suggests higher land suitability. For the ith cell in the grid—final factor map, its value is calculated as follows: n X F i;j , (2) j¼1 where F i is the value assigned to the ith cell in the final factor grid, F i;j the value assigned to the ith cell in the jth factor grid, and n the number of factors identified. To cancel the distortion caused by unit dimensions (due to the binary nature of the grids) and also to assign larger values to cells that are closer to the selected features, all distances are normalized as follows: F stdi;j ¼ F i;j F i;j;max ð1Þ, F i;j;max Fi ¼ n X wj F i;j ; 0pwi p1, (4) j¼1 where F i ; F i;j ; and n are same as above in (2), and wj is the weight assigned to the jth factor. 3.2. Selective factors Fi ¼ Furthermore, all factors are not equally important in influencing the selection of potential sites. Therefore, it is necessary to assign appropriate weights to the factors reflecting their relative importance. The method adopted in this study is the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). For the ith cell in the final factor grid, its value is calculated as follows: (3) where is the F stdi;j is the normalized distance for the ith cell in the jth factor grid, F i;j is the originally calculated distance for the ith cell in the jth factor grid, and F i;j;max is the maximum distance for the jth factor grid. 3.3. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Because quantitative ratings for the selective factors are not available, it is difficult to assign evaluations and weights. To address this issue, we used AHP, which is a mathematic technique for multicriteria decision making [16–17]. AHP helps capture both qualitative and quantitative aspects of a decision and provides a powerful yet simple way of weighting selection criteria thus reducing bias in decision making. The first step in AHP process is to structure the decision problem in a hierarchy as depicted in Fig. 2. The overall goal of the decision, selecting a site, is at the top level of the hierarchy. The next level consists of the criteria/ factors relevant for this goal and at the bottom level are the alternatives (i.e. many sites) to be evaluated. The second step is the comparison of alternatives and criteria. They are compared in pairs with respect to each element of the next higher level. For the relative comparison, the fundamental scales of Table 1 are used, allowing users to express the comparisons in verbal terms, which are translated to a quantifiable scale. The specific procedures are as following: 1. To create a pair-wise comparison matrix for multiple factors, let Pij ¼ extent to which we prefer factor i to factor j: Then assume Pji ¼ 1=Pij : ARTICLE IN PRESS J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 595 Selecting a Site Distance to Dairy Farms Distance to Transmission Lines Distance to Natural Gas Pipelines Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Distance to Power Plants & Substations ………………….. Distance to Roads Site n Fig. 2. Structure of hierarchy for AHP. Table 1 Fundamental scale for pair-wise comparisons in AHP 3. consistency ratio (CR) is then calculated using the formulae Verbal scale Numerical values CR ¼ CI=RI; Equally important, likely or preferred Moderately more important, likely or preferred Strongly more important, likely or preferred Very strongly more important, likely or preferred Extremely more important, likely or preferred Intermediate values to reflect compromise 1 3 5 7 where RI is a known random consistency index and can be obtained [18]. As a rule of thumb, a value of CRp0.1 will be accepted. Otherwise a re-voting of the comparison-matrix has to be performed. 9 2, 4, 6, 8 2. Normalize a pair-wise comparison matrix: a. Compute the sum of each column. b. Divide each entry in the matrix by its column sum. c. Average across rows to get the relative weights. 3.4. Land suitability map A final land suitability grid is calculated by multiplying the final constraint map and the final factor map together. It has values ranging from 0 to 1 in each cell, with 1 representing most suitable and 0 representing unsuitable. For the ith cell in the grid—final suitability map, the value is calculated as follows: SIi ¼ C i F i , (5) To evaluate credibility of the estimated weights, one final step is recommended to measure consistency in pair-wise comparison. The consistency ratio is calculated as following: where SIi is the suitability index value calculated for the ith cell in the final land suitability grid, C i is Boolean value (0,1) assigned to the ith cell in the final constraint grid, F i is the value assigned to the ith cell in the final factor grid. 1. Calculate the eigenvector and the maximum eigenvalue for each matrix. 2. Compute the consistency index (CI) for each matrix by the formulae 4. Case study: Tompkins County, New York CI ¼ ðlmax nÞ=ðn 1Þ. The present study uses Tompkins County, New York as the area to demonstrate this GIS-based ARTICLE IN PRESS 596 J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 model and its procedures. Tompkins County is located in the western central part of New York State. Although it is not a major dairy county, there are sufficient dairy farms for research purposes. The dairy sector in Tompkins County consists of 89 dairy farms and 9500 milk cows [19]. The study area was selected primarily because it has the most readily available GIS data compared to other agriculturally dominated counties in New York State. However, the methodology implemented here for locating optimal sites for potential bio-energy systems is broad enough to allow application to any region, subject only to availability of data. 4.1. Constraints in land suitability assessment Generally, a dairy manure-based bio-energy system cannot be sited within a certain distance of the following features: wetlands, streams, critical environmental areas, flood plains, roads, residential areas, and airports. In addition, safety concerns prevent any construction near power systems such as transmission lines, power plants, etc. Areas of steep slope are also restricted for development. In total, there are eleven constraints identified in this study (Table 2). After these constraints were identified, buffer zones were created for each constraint to minimize environmental impact. It was important to define the width of various buffer zones, i.e. the minimum distance of development sites to those selected geographic entities/features. However, there are very few buffer distances criteria specified by State governmental regulations. Most criteria used in this study were based on regulations in other states and also from research on locating sites for landfills or low hazardous waste disposal facilities [20–22]. A binary grid was created for each of the eleven constraints, with pixels that fall within the buffer zone of constraints assigned ‘‘0’’ and the rest ‘‘1’’. To develop a constraint map for slope requires a separate GIS process. A slope map was derived from merged 7.5-min digital elevation models (DEMs of 10-m cell size) using the standard slope function defined by ESRI software. The slopes in Tompkins County range from 0% to 79% and were reclassified into slope categories. Slopes between 0% and 15% were identified as acceptable topographic gradient requirements for facility development for engineering and runoff concerns and therefore, coded as available area while land areas exceeding a 15% slope were classified as restricted areas. 4.2. Factors in land suitability assessment Five factors were identified to address the preference of selecting a potential site to maximize energy and economic benefits. These factors include: Distance from potential bio-energy system to existing dairy farms: The potential bio-energy systems are preferably sited as close to or on Table 2 Constraints identified and their specifications for creating buffer zones Attribute Specifications Wetlands and lakes Critical environment areas Streams Airports Flood plain Slope gradient Roads Transmission lines Natural gas pipelines Power plants and substations Residential areas Sites falling within wetlands and a buffer zone of 100 m are avoided Sites falling within such areas and a buffer zone of 500 m are avoided Sites falling within streams and a buffer zone of 100 m are avoided Sites falling within such areas and a buffer zone of 500 m are avoided Sites falling within 100-year flood plains are avoided Areas with slopes larger than 15% are avoided Sites falling within 30 m of roads are avoided Sites falling within a buffer of 200 m are avoided Sites falling within a buffer of 100 m are avoided Sites falling within a buffer of 200 m are avoided A distance of 2000 m from high-density residential areas or urban residences A distance of 1000 m from medium-density residential areas ARTICLE IN PRESS J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 existing dairy farms as possible to minimize transportation costs and environmental problems such as odor and nuisance. Ideally, most of the bio-energy systems should be located on existing farms if suitable. However, in some cases it may be required to develop new sites or centralized plants. Distance from potential bio-energy system to roads: Beyond the restricted buffer zone for minimizing odor and view, the closer to roads, the better to save transportation cost in the case of collecting dairy manure to a central plant. Distance from potential bio-energy system to transmission lines: Beyond the buffer zone for safety reasons, the closer to transmission lines, the better to save interconnection costs when excess farm-generated electricity is sold back to the grid. Distance from potential bio-energy system to natural gas pipelines: Beyond the buffer zone for safety reasons, the closer to natural gas pipelines, the better to save costs if farmers choose the option of introducing cleaned biogas into the pipeline instead of generating electricity and heat. Distance from potential bio-energy system to power plants and substations: Same as transmission lines issue. The second step is to determine weights of these five factors by using the AHP method (Table 3). The ‘‘distance of potential sites to existing dairy farms’’ was the most important factor because it is critical to save on construction and transportation costs and minimize odor issues. Therefore, distance to existing dairy farms was rated moderately 597 more important ‘‘3’’ than the ‘‘distance to roads’’ and ‘‘distance to power plants and substations’’ (Table 1). Distance to farms was also rated very strongly more important, ‘‘7’’, than the ‘‘distance to transmission lines’’ and ‘‘distance to natural gas pipelines’’. The ‘‘distance to roads’’ is considered the next most important factor because transportation cost is a common variable in evaluating economic benefits. Power systems are given lower ratings because interconnection is currently more a political issue rather than a technical one. Thus, the other three factors were assigned lower weights. A distance map for each factor was developed and stored in raster format with 10-m cell size. The grid cell values represent the distance from the selected features. To cancel the unit distortion, distance values were normalized (see Eq. (3)) and all factor grid cells have a value between 0 and 1. 5. Results In this study, all layers were projected into the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) system, zone 18, NAD27. To better illustrate the LSM procedures in actual GIS environment, two of eleven constraints and two of five factors were selected respectively to serve as examples shown in Fig. 3. This composite map provides an explanation for Fig. 1 in real context. Map a shows the spatial relationship between the distribution of dairy cows and human residential areas. Not surprisingly, dairy farms are located in areas where there is low human density. The map also identifies dairy farms’ herd size. The Table 3 Pair-wise comparison matrix Dairy farms Roads PP and S Transmission lines Natural gas pipelines Dairy farms Roads PP and S Transmission lines Natural gas lines Weights 1 1/3 1/3 1/7 1/7 3 1 1/3 1/5 1/5 3 3 1 1/3 1/3 7 5 3 1 1/3 7 5 3 3 1 0.476 0.269 0.139 0.071 0.045 ARTICLE IN PRESS J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 598 STD Dist to Dairy Farms Dairy Farms (of Cows) 25-88 88-183 184-300 301-620 621-1230 County Boundary Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential 0.0111 0.0111- 0.222 0.0222- 0.333 0.0333- 0.444 0.0444- 0.555 0.0555- 0.667 0.0667- 0.778 0.0778- 0.889 0.889- 1 No data Wetland Buffer Restricted Available No Data N 8 (a) 0 E W 16 Miles 8 (b) S a. b. Spatial distribution of dairy farms and human population (e) Binary grid of wetlands with a buffer zone of 100 meter c. Binary grid of high density residential areas with a buffer zone of 2,000 meters d. Final constraint map as a result of multiplication of eleven constraint grids e. Normalized distances of potential sites to existing dairy farms f. Normalized distances of potential sites to transmission lines g. Final factor map as a result of summation of five factor grids h. Land suitability index map i. Reclassified land suitability index map Transmission Lines STD Dist Trans Lines 0.0 - 111 0.111 - 0.222 0.222 - 0.333 0.333 - 0.444 0.444 - 0.556 0.556 - 0.667 0.667 - 0.778 0.778 - 0.889 0.889 - 1 No Data High Density Residential Restricted Available No Data (c) (f) Country Boundary Factor index 0.276 - 0.419 0.419 - 0.562 0.562 - 0.705 0.705 - 0.848 0.848 - 0.991 No Data Constraints Map Restricted Available No Data Dairy Farms Roads County Boundary Suitability Index (>0.872) Loss or Not Suitable Most Suitable No Data (g) (d) Suitability index 0 - 0.194 0.194 - 0.388 0.388 - 0.581 0.581 - 0.775 0.775 - 0.969 No Data N E W 8 0 8 16 miles S (i) 8 0 8 16 miles (h) Fig. 3. Procedures and results of GIS-based LSM. larger dots indicate greater number of dairy cows on the farm and therefore a higher concentration of waste. Maps b and c, respectively, display wetlands with a buffer distance of 100 m and highdensity residential areas with a buffer distance of 2000 m. Multiplied with the other nine constraints layer, a final constraint grid was created and is shown as Map d. The areas coded as ‘‘0’’ are reclassified as ‘‘restricted’’ while the areas coded as ‘‘1’’ are classified as ‘‘available’’, meaning these areas meet all environmental constraints and are eligible for further consideration. Maps e and f show the results of factor grids representing normalized distances from potential project sites to existing dairy farms and transmis- sion lines, respectively. The distance values are normalized and therefore range from 0 to 1 and the closer distances are assigned higher values. With all five-factor grids created, they were summed to generate a single factor map by using their respective weights obtained from AHP method (Map g). Because each of the five factor maps has a grid value between 0 and 1 with a weight less than 1, the final factor map is also a grid with a value between 0 and 1. Finally, the constraint map (d) and the factor map (g) were multiplied to create the siting suitability map (Map h). This GIS operation is equivalent to cutting the ‘‘restricted’’ areas out of the factor map. The suitability index value varies ARTICLE IN PRESS J. Ma et al. / Biomass and Bioenergy 28 (2005) 591–600 from 0 to 0.969. The areas with high suitability index value will have relatively less environmental impact, higher economic benefits, and easier access to the existing power system. Thus, these areas are more suitable for development. Because there are more than enough candidate sites, it is desirable to identify those sites with the highest suitability index values that are sufficient to handle all waste available. To be economically feasible and technically practical, a minimum herd size of 400 milk cows is considered a minimum size to install an AD system on a dairy farm based on previous studies [23]. Therefore, for the number of milk cows in Tompkins County, approximately 20 potential sites would be enough to absorb the biomass— waste generated by 9500 dairy cows within this area. In addition, empirical studies have showed that a minimum farmland of 1000 acres is needed not only to install the bio-energy system, but also to make compost, store liquids, and spread liquid effluent on crop fields. Thus, approximately 20,000 acres of land with highest suitability index values are probably needed in Tompkins County. Based on the suitability index value, Map h was further reclassified into two categories—‘‘less or not suitable’’ (o0.872), and ‘‘most suitable’’ (X0.872). The statistics shows that the ‘‘most suitable’’ areas on Map i have a total area of 22,940 acres and accordingly these areas are most suitable for possible development of dairy manurebased bio-energy systems in the study area. 6. Discussion A GIS model was developed to determine optimal sites for potential bio-energy systems using dairy manure as the feedstock in New York State, with Tompkins County as a case study area. The results not only indicate where renewable energy resources are available based on distribution of dairy farms, but also show where the best potential locations are to develop such systems in the future. Those identified candidates are likely to be the optimal locations for future development. This study has both direct and indirect benefits to New York State. The results will directly help 599 state/local governments, electric and gas utilities, dairy farmers and other interested parties to recognize the energy potential of dairy manure and to serve as a guide for utilizing it. The model developed in this study can also be applied to investigate other types of biomass resources. Thus, it will help promote the implementation of bioenergy in New York. There are limitations that need to be addressed and new directions that need to be explored in future research. Since the electric grid is a complicated network, the distributed power generation plants need to be located at strategic points to best supplement the grid. This factor has not yet been included into this optimization model. In addition, the present study omitted the fact that dairy farms are not totally independent of each other. In the case of building a centralized system among a group of small dairy farms, the spatial relationship of these farms has to be considered in the optimal siting analysis. GIS provides powerful network analysis capabilities. Future research using GIS to study potential bio-energy systems from a network perspective should be explored. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge partial funding support for this study from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority by P.O. 4841. 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