OILSEEDS and PROTEIN CROPS
market situation
Committee for the Common Organisation
of Agricultural Markets
30 May 2017
Content
Oilseeds market at world level
Oilseeds and protein crops in the EU
Oilseeds World Market
Oilseeds world production
566m t
600
572m t
500
Million tonnes
400
300
200
100
0
2010/11
Source : USDA
2011/12
2012/13
Soybean
2013/14
Rapeseed
Sunflowerseed
2014/2015
Cott onseed
2015/16
Peanut
Other
2016/17
2017/18
May 2017
Oilseeds world production
350.00
million tonnes
Copra
5.5
Cottonseed 42.1
Palm kernel 16.1
Peanut
41.2
Rapeseed
69.2
Soybean
306.3
Sunflowerseed40.4
Oilseeds
520.9
300.00
250.00
Million tonnes
5 years
average
200.00
last MY
current
forecast
5.4
38.7
17.0
42.3
68.9
348.0
45.7
566.0
5.5
41.8
18.0
43.2
72.8
344.7
46.1
572.1
previous
forecast
% vs
average
1.5
-0.8
12.0
4.8
5.1
12.5
13.9
9.8
% vs last % vs last
MY
forecast
2.4
7.9
5.9
2.0
5.7
-1.0
0.9
1.1
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
Soybean
Source : USDA (May 2017)
Rapeseed
Sunflowerseed
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Cottonseed
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Peanut
Other
Soybeans world production by country
120
100
Million tonnes
80
million
tonnes
5 years
average
last MY
current
forecast
USA
Brazil
Argentina
China
India
Paraguay
ROW
Total
101.0
94.8
55.6
12.4
9.8
8.8
23.9
306.3
117.2
111.6
57.0
12.9
11.5
10.3
27.5
348.0
115.8
107.0
57.0
13.8
11.5
9.4
30.2
344.7
previous
forecast
% vs
average
14.6
12.9
2.6
11.6
17.3
6.7
26.0
12.5
% vs last % vs last
MY
forecast
-1.2
-4.1
0.0
7.0
0.0
-8.7
9.6
-1.0
60
40
20
0
USA
Source : USDA (May 2017)
Brazil
Argentina
China
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
India
2016/17
2017/18
Paraguay
Other
Soybeans world production, consumption
and stocks
125
348
315
331
100
258
261
264
221
million tonnes
238
212
70
302
313
275
90
78
240
89
261
77
206
60
50
269
261
252
75
283
316
54
57
62
150
million tonnes
320
345
344
43
25
0
95
4
2008
4
6
5
2009
2010
2011
World…
of which US
4
2012
World Production
3
2013
5
5
2014
2015
World Consumption
12
13
2016
est.
2017
proj.
40
Source:
USDA
May
Soybeans production forecast by country
140
USA
120
100
'million tonnes
Brazil
80
Argentina
60
40
Rest of the World
20
China
Paraguay
India
0
2011/12
Source : USDA (May 2017)
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
May 2017
Rapeseed production forecast by country
30
25
EU 28
20
million tonnes
Canada
15
China
Rest of the World
10
India
5
0
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
May 2017
Sunflowerseed production forecast by country
16
Ukraine
14
12
Russia
million tonnes
10
Rest of the World
8
EU 28
6
4
Argentina
2
0
2011/12
Source : USDA (May 2017)
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
May 2017
Futures prices
Soybeans CME (60 days - $/t)
350
JUL'17: 359
SEP'17: 359
JUL'18: 357
370
300
250
360
200
350
150
€/t
420
$/t
380
100
340
28
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 t)
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 t
400
Rapeseed MATIF (60 days - EUR/t)
24
AUG'17: 365
MAY'18: 372
AUG'18: 356
20
380
16
370
12
360
8
350
4
340
0
330
400
390
50
0
410
330
405.00
360.00
400.00
358.00
395.00
356.00
390.00
385.00
$/t
354.00
380.00
352.00
375.00
350.00
370.00
365.00
348.00
346.00
344.00
342.00
-11 $/t
360.00
355.00
-31 eur/t
350.00
345.00
18/04 21/04 24/04 27/04 30/04 03/05 06/05 09/05 12/05 15/05
Source: CME, MATIF
Oilseeds / cereals price ratio
4.0
US soybean - maize price ratio (CBOT)
19/05/2017: 2.56
3.4
2.8
2.2
1.6
EU rapeseed - wheat price ratio (MATIF)
19/05/2017: 2.17
1.0
01/01/08
01/01/09
01/01/10
01/01/11
01/01/12
01/01/13
01/01/14
01/01/15
01/01/16
01/01/17
Spot prices – Beans / Seeds
16 May 2017
€/t
$/t
Export prices FOB
soybeans
rapeseed
sunflower
Argentina - Up River
Brazil - Paranagua
US Gulf
Ukraine
Australia
Canada
EU (Rouen)
Ukraine
EU (Bordeaux)
Ukraine
333
343
339
348
387
382
367
359
371
344
$/t
m/m variation
€/t
$/t
368
380
375
384
428
422
406
397
411
380
1%
3%
0%
-3%
-1%
-1%
-10%
-8%
0%
-4%
5%
7%
4%
1%
3%
2%
-7%
-4%
4%
-1%
Oilseeds- monthly average
460
405
420
403
380
369
340
May-16
Aug-16
Soy (US)
Source: IGC
Nov-16
Feb-17
Rape (EU)
May-17
Sun (EU)
y/y variation
€/t
$/t
-8%
-6%
-6%
1%
5%
0%
-2%
-9%
-3%
-11%
-10%
-8%
-9%
-1%
2%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-13%
Spot prices (FOB) – Meals
16 May 2017
Export prices FOB
m/m variation
y/y variation
€/t
$/t
€/t
$/t
€/t
$/t
soymeal
Argentina - Up River
289
320
-2%
2%
-19%
-21%
sunmeal
Argentina - Up River
122
135
-7%
-4%
-1%
-4%
215
238
-5%
-1%
-2%
-4%
rapemeal EU (Hambourg)
$/t
500
Meals export prices - monthly average
400
321
300
236
200
100
May-16
135
Aug-16
Soy (Arg)
Rape (EU)
Source: IGC
Nov-16
Soy (Bz)
Sun (Arg)
Feb-17
May-17
Soy (US)
Spot prices – Veg. Oils
Export prices FOB
soyoil
sunoil
canola oil
palm oil
Argentina - Up River
Ukraine
EU (Rotterdam)
Indonesia
$/t
1000
16 May 2017
€/t
$/t
m/m variation
€/t
$/t
y/y variation
€/t
$/t
660
673
772
628
1%
0%
-2%
-21%
3%
-7%
27%
-13%
730
744
853
695
5%
4%
24%
-18%
Vegetable oils - monthly average
900
843
800
700
679
600
500
May-16
Aug-16
Sun (Ukr)
Soy (US)
Source: IGC
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Palm (Indonesia)
Rape (EU)
1%
-9%
24%
-15%
Global oilseeds market: key messages
(1/2)
USDA 2017/18 projections
Global oilseeds: slight increase of production at 572m t (+1%
y/y; +10% 5 yrs average):
Very good outlook for soybeans;slightly below last harvest (average of
historical yields).
Rapeseed production seen higher than 5 years average (increase of
acreage) as well as palm kernel.
Sunflower production at record level.
Global oilseeds market: key messages
(2/2)
Futures prices: Over the last month, decrease for both soy and
rapeseed. Oilseeds/cereals price ratio still in favour of oilseeds.
Futures
CME, MATIF
m/m
US soybeans ( Jul 2017)
359 $/t
-11 $/t
EU rapeseed (Aug 2017)
365 €/t
-31 €/t
Spot prices : increase over the last month (soy & sun), but lower y/y
(except rapeseed in Australia).
Fob
16 May (IGC)
m/m
y/y
US soybeans
375 $/t
↑
↓
EU rapeseed
367 €/t
↓
↓
EU sunflower
371 €/t
↑
↓
Oilseeds and protein crops
at EU level
EU Oilseeds
EU Rapeseed
EU Rapeseed
Rapeseed
Production
Million tonnes
AVG 5 yrs
TOTAL EU
20.83
5.05
5.21
2.53
2.38
1.35
0.88
3.43
France
Germany
Poland
UK
Czech Republic
Romania
Others
Sources : DG AGRI G.4
2016/17
2017/18
2017/18
April 2017
May 2017
%change
2016/17
%change
5yrs trimmed
19.69
22.19
21.89
11.2
5.1
4.30
4.62
2.21
1.78
1.36
1.34
4.09
4.88
5.22
2.58
1.97
1.47
1.22
4.85
5.17
4.71
2.55
2.05
1.40
1.46
4.56
20.1
1.9
15.6
15.4
3.1
9.1
11.5
2.2
-9.6
0.8
-13.8
3.5
65.4
33.2
trimmed
EU Soybeans & Sunflower
EU Oilseeds
EU OILSEEDS AREA
AVG 5 yrs
Million tonnes trimmed
2016/17
2017/18
2017/18
May 2017
%change
2016/17
%change
5yrs trimmed
April 2017
Linseed
6.6
4.3
0.6
0.1
6.5
4.2
0.8
0.1
6.7
4.3
0.8
0.1
6.8
4.3
0.8
0.1
4.1
2.9
0.0
-18.2
3.7
0.5
33.4
-2.9
TOTAL
11.5
11.6
11.9
12.0
3.2
4.1
2016/17
2017/18
2017/18
April 2017
May 2017
%change
2016/17
%change
5yrs trimmed
Rapeseed
Sunflower
Soja
Sources : DG AGRI G.4
EU OILSEEDS PRODUCTION
AVG 5 yrs
Million tonnes
trimmed
Linseed
20.8
8.6
1.7
0.1
19.7
8.6
2.2
0.1
22.2
9.1
2.4
0.1
21.9
9.1
2.3
0.1
11.2
6.5
6.7
-5.3
5.1
6.5
32.4
-1.4
TOTAL
31.3
30.6
33.9
33.5
9.5
7.0
Rapeseed
Sunflower
Soja
Sources : DG AGRI G.4
EU oilseeds trade (2016/17)
Cumulated Imports
(thousand tonnes) up
to week 46
soybeans
rapeseed
sunflowerseed
soymeal
rapemeal
sunmeal
soyoil
rapeoil
sunoil
palm oil
Difference (%) with
2016/17
12 072.1
3 909.8
759.4
15 472.5
167.6
3 019.0
238.6
142.4
1 233.8
5 123.6
Rapeseed Imports (thousand tonnes)
800
4 000
700
3 000
2 500
2 000
2014/15
-2%
26%
105%
-12%
-57%
10%
-13%
-26%
-7%
-14%
7%
93%
230%
-4%
-58%
4%
3%
-38%
46%
-7%
United States of America
Australia
Moldova, Republic of
Argentina
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Norway
Ukraine
Ukraine
Indonesia
Sunflower Imports (thousand tonnes)
4 500
3 500
2015/16
Main origin of imports
share (%) in
total import
40.4%
59.3%
37.7%
46.6%
50.5%
68.3%
25.5%
45.8%
90.7%
50.8%
Rapeseed meal
2014/15
2014/15
600
2014/15
2015/16
2015/16
500
2015/16
2016/17
2016/17
400
2016/17
300
1 500
1 000
200
500
100
0
1
9
17
25
Weeks
33
41
49
Source: European Commission – 19/05/2017
0
1
9
17
25
Weeks
33
41
49
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
EU oilseeds balance sheet
O ils e e ds ( m io . t )
P ro duc t io n
Rape
So ybean
Sunflo wer
T o t a l do m e s t ic us e
2 7 .4
3 1.5
3 5 .4
3 2 .1
3 0 .4
3 3 .3
5 - yr.a v .
2 0 12 - 17
3 1.3
19.3
21.0
24.3
21.8
19.7
21.9
20.8
1.0
7.2
1.2
9.3
1.8
9.3
2.4
7.9
2.2
8.6
2.3
9.1
8.6
2 0 12 / 13
2 0 13 / 14
2 0 14 / 15
2 0 15 / 16 p
2 0 16 / 17 e
2 0 17 / 18 f
1.7
4 4 .1
4 7 .7
4 9 .3
4 9 .9
4 8 .4
4 9 .7
4 8 .4
Rape
23.2
24.2
25.9
24.9
23.4
25.0
24.2
o f which crushing
22.3
23.5
25.0
24.1
22.7
24.2
23.4
So ybean
13.7
14.7
14.4
16.9
16.1
15.7
15.1
o f which crushing
12.3
13.2
12.9
15.1
14.4
14.0
13.5
Sunflo wer
7.2
8.8
8.9
8.1
8.9
9.0
8.6
o f which crushing
6.3
7.8
7.9
7.0
7.9
7.9
7.6
16 .0
17 .4
15 .8
18 .6
18 .8
17 .4
17 .4
Im po rt s
3.4
3.5
2.3
3.5
4.0
3.5
3.5
12.4
13.6
13.2
14.7
14.0
13.6
13.6
0.2
0 .6
0.3
1.1
0.3
1.3
0.5
0 .9
0.8
0 .9
0.4
0 .9
1.0
Rape
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
So ybean
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
Sunflo wer
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
3 .2
3 .0
2 .8
Rape
So ybean
Sunflo wer
E xpo rt s
E nd s t o c k s
0.4
2 .4
2 .6
3 .1
2 .9
Rape
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
So ybean
Sunflo wer
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.7
1.4
0.7
1.4
0.6
1.2
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.7
62
66
72
64
63
0.7
67
Self sufficiency rate %
Source: DG AGRI – 19/05//2017
1.0
EU oilmeals balance sheet
M e a ls ( m io . t )
P ro duc t io n
Rape
So ybean
Sunflo wer
T o t a l do m e s t ic us e
2 0 12 / 13
2 0 13 / 14
2 0 14 / 15
2 0 15 / 16 p
2 0 16 / 17 e
2 0 17 / 18 f
2 9 .5
5 - yr.a v .
2 0 12 - 17
2 8 .4
2 5 .9
2 8 .1
2 8 .8
2 9 .5
2 8 .4
12.7
13.4
14.3
13.8
12.8
14.1
13.3
9.7
3.4
10.4
4.3
10.2
4.4
11.9
3.9
11.4
4.3
11.0
4.4
10.6
4.2
5 0 .8
4 9 .7
4 5 .9
4 9 .4
5 0 .0
5 2 .3
4 9 .7
Rape
12.8
13.5
14.3
13.7
12.6
14.1
13.3
So ybean
26.0
28.7
28.4
31.8
29.6
29.2
28.9
Sunflo wer
Im po rt s
Rape
7.1
7.2
7.3
6.9
7.6
7.5
7.2
2 1.1
2 2 .0
2 2 .3
2 3 .8
2 2 .3
2 2 .3
2 2 .2
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
17.0
18.5
18.6
20.2
18.5
18.5
3.7
1.1
3.1
0 .9
3.2
1.0
3.2
1.0
3.5
1.0
3.3
0 .9
18.5
3.3
Rape
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
So ybean
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Sunflo wer
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0 .5
0 .5
0 .5
0 .5
0 .5
0 .5
So ybean
Sunflo wer
E xpo rt s
E nd s t o c k s
0 .6
1.0
Rape
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
So ybean
Sunflo wer
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
56
57
58
0.1
56
0.1
57
0.1
58
0.3
0.1
S e lf s uf f ic ie nc y ra t e %
Source: DG AGRI – 19/05//2017
EU vegetable oils balance sheet
V e ge t a ble o ils ( m io . t )
P ro duc t io n
2 0 12 / 13
2 0 13 / 14
2 0 15 / 16 p
2 0 16 / 17 e
2 0 17 / 18 f
16 .3
5 - yr.a v .
2 0 12 - 17
15 .6
15 .5
16 .2
15 .9
15 .4
Rape
9.1
9.6
10.3
9.9
9.2
10.1
9.6
So ybean
Sunflo wer
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.3
2.6
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.3
2.8
3.3
2.7
3.2
P alm
14 .2
2 0 14 / 15
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2 0 .0
2 2 .0
2 2 .8
2 3 .1
2 1.7
2 2 .9
2 2 .1
Rape
8.9
9.4
10.2
9.8
9.0
10.0
9.4
So ybean
1.7
2.1
1.9
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
Sunflo wer
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.1
3.9
T o t a l do m e s t ic us e
6.0
6.7
6.7
7.0
6.4
6.6
6.6
Im po rt s
P alm
7 .6
8 .4
8 .5
9 .0
8 .3
8 .4
8 .4
Rape
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
So ybean
Sunflo wer
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.3
1.1
P alm
6.1
1.8
6.9
1.6
6.9
1.9
7.1
1.8
6.5
1.9
6.8
1.8
1.8
Rape
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
So ybean
1.0
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
Sunflo wer
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
P alm
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
E xpo rt s
6.8
0.1
E nd s t o c k s
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Rape
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
So ybean
Sunflo wer
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
P alm
0.4
0.4
0.5
71
71
0.5
71
0.5
71
0.5
71
0.5
69
Self sufficiency rate %
Source: DG AGRI – 19/05//2017
Key messages - oilseeds
EU oilseeds
2017/18 area at 12m ha (+3.2% vs last MY; 4.1% vs 5 yrs average)
with increase for rapeseed, sunflower and soybeans.
2017/18 production revised down (m/m) at 33.5m t (+9.5%; 7%)
due to a decrease for rapeseed (lower yield).
Rapeseed
Decrease (y/y) of area : FR, UK
Increase of area: DE, PL, CZ, RO
Balance sheet
Increase of sunflower and rapeseed imports
Decrease of soymeals imports
EU Proteins
EU Protein crops
EU PROTEIN CROPS AREA
AVG 5 yrs
Million tonnes trimmed
2016/17
2017/18
2017/18
May 2017
%change
2016/17
%change
5yrs trimmed
April 2017
Sweet lupins
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.3
0.9
0.7
0.3
-0.6
0.0
-0.3
50.6
42.8
64.2
TOTAL
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
-0.3
49.4
2017/18
2017/18
April 2017
May 2017
%change
2016/17
%change
5yrs trimmed
Field peas
Broad beans
Sources : DG AGRI G.4
EU PROTEIN CROPS PRODUCTION
AVG 5 yrs
Million tonnes
2016/17
trimmed
Sweet lupins
1.6
1.4
0.2
2.3
1.9
0.4
2.5
2.0
0.4
2.5
2.0
0.4
7.4
5.4
9.4
56.4
45.3
67.9
TOTAL
3.2
4.6
4.9
4.9
6.8
52.5
Field peas
Broad beans
Sources : DG AGRI G.4
Thank you for your attention!
Presentations & Balance sheets
available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/index_en.htm