A Study of Unemployment Issues among Registered Job Seekers in Brunei Darussalam Report by Dr Diana Cheong Associate Professor Dr Roger Lawrey for The Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies Brunei Darussalam April 2009 Whilst every effort is made to avoid inaccurate or misleading data, the findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies (CSPS) nor of any institution with which the authors may be associated with. CSPS accepts no responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the data and information included in the publication nor does it accept any consequences for their use. The material in this publication is copyrighted. For permission to reprint all or part of this work, please send a request with complete information to: CSPS, Simpang 347, Gadong BE1318, Brunei Darussalam, or email to [email protected]. However, any material in this work may be freely quoted subject to appropriate acknowledgement. Permission to reproduce any part of this work is not required for academic and similar noncommercial purposes. Published by the Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies, Brunei Darussalam Printed by Brunei Press Sdn. Bhd. Synopsis A study of unemployment issues in Brunei Darussalam was commissioned by the Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies (CSPS), with support from His Majesty’s Government of Brunei, corporate bodies, professional organisations and other relevant stakeholders as a means of addressing the issue of unemployment among the youth in the country. CSPS would like to thank Dr Diana Cheong1 and Associate Professor Dr Roger Lawrey2 from Universiti Brunei Darussalam and their team of professional researchers in completing ‘A Study of Unemployment Issues among Registered Job seekers in Brunei Darussalam’. The study resulted in: • Publishing the Unemployment Study in 2008 with the objectives and crucial assessments made on policy development, legislation and administration in addressing unemployment issues among job seekers in the Sultanate. • The outcome of this study resulted in the organising of a job fair with walk-in job interviews and candidate screening by 16 companies in the private sector at Chancellor Hall, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, in February 2008. • Holding public seminars at The Empire Hotel & Country Club, Brunei Darussalam in the form of a Round-Table Session in collaboration with Asia Inc Forum in April 2009. CSPS wishes to thank the many individuals and organisations who made submissions and participated in consultations and meetings in completing this consultancy report. The comments and suggestions made in submissions and meetings have been a valuable input into the consultants’ deliberations while preparing this report. 1 2 Diana Cheong can be contacted at [email protected] Roger Lawrey can be contacted at [email protected] Acknowledgements The authors are very grateful to the Centre of Strategic and Policy Studies (CSPS) for sponsoring their study, and would also like to thank the Labour Department for their kind provision of data and facilitation of their fieldwork. Their gratitude also extends to Lennard Pang Wei Loon and Haji Suhaimi bin Haji Ali of UBD for statistical and coding assistance. Table of Contents List of Tables vii Executive Summary viii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Research Methodology 2.1 Review of Secondary Sources of Data 2.2 Survey of Questionnaire: Job Seekers 2.2.1 Design of Questionnaire 2.2.2 Sampling Design 2.3 Focus Group Interviews: Employers 3 3 3 4 5 7 Chapter 3: Research Findings 3.1 Profile, Efforts, Skills, Aspirations and Attitudes 3.1.1 Sample Profile 3.1.2 Job Seekers’ Efforts to Find a Job 3.1.3 Preparation Skills Required 3.1.4 Job Seekers’ Reasons for Unemployment 3.1.5 Job Seekers’ Aspirations 3.1.6 Job Seekers’ Attitudes 3.2 Unemployment, Inadequate Employment and Analysis of Unemployment in the Sample 3.2.1 Unemployment 8 8 8 14 14 16 18 26 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.2.5 3.2.6 3.2.7 3.2.8 3.2.9 Measurement of Unemployment Underemployment and Inadequate Employment Employment and Unemployment in Brunei A Definition of Unemployment for Brunei The Nature of Unemployment within the Sample Underemployment and Inadequate Employment in Brunei Future Labour Force Projections Summary of Unemployment Characteristics 30 30 31 33 34 36 37 41 41 43 Chapter 4: International Labour Organisation Obligations 45 Chapter 5: Recommendations and Conclusions 47 References 51 List of Tables Table 2.1 Job Seekers By District, June 2007 Table 3.1 Age and Gender Characteristics Table 3.2 Residency Status and Race Table 3.3 Income Characteristics Table 3.4 Place of Residence Table 3.5 Highest Educational Qualifications Table 3.6 What have you done in last 4 weeks from today to get a job, or tried to change your current work situation? Table 3.7 To what extent do you need the following services to support and prepare you for a job search? Table 3.8 What additional skills, training and support do you feel you need to be prepared for the job interview? Table 3.9 Reasons For Stopping Working Table 3.10 What, in your opinion, are the main reasons why you have not been successful in finding a job, or do not have a job? Table 3.11 What is the main job you are looking for now? Table 3.12 Rankings of Jobs Table 3.13 Job Preference Table 3.14 Cross Tabulation for Educational Qualifications and Career Desired Table 3.15 Chances of Getting a Job Table 3.16 Your Expected Salary Range Per Month Table 3.17 Mean Expected Salary Table 3.18 Selectivity of Respondents Table 3.19 Important Characteristics of Job Table 3.20 Please indicate your opinion regarding the following statements Table 3.21 Economically Active Population Aged 15-64 by Residential Status 2001 Table 3.22 Respondents’ Employment Records Table 3.23 Respondents’ Employment/Unemployment Status Table 3.24 Labour Force Projections 2001-2011, Brunei Citizens and PRs Only 5 9 10 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 24 25 25 27 27 29 34 38 39 42 vii Executive Summary • Definition of Unemployment A working definition of unemployment for Brunei should not consider one hour of work in the reference period as employment. The vast majority of Bruneian citizens and permanent residents in the labour force are in full-time positions and those seeking full-time employment, but unable to find it, should be taken as the standard for classification as unemployed. It is recommended that all relevant agencies adopt the same benchmark measure of unemployment and that this should be the unemployment rate for citizens and permanent residents because this is the most important indicator for policy formation. However, for alignment with ILO guidelines and most international standards, the unemployment rate using the total labour force is most appropriate. Accordingly, the unemployment rate should be estimated using both the citizen and permanent resident labour force and the overall labour force. • Extent and Nature of Unemployment Only approximately 65 per cent of our sample of job seekers can be considered as ‘unemployed’. The remaining 35 per cent of our sample were actually in employment. This implies that unemployed job seekers accounted for only 2.2 per cent of the overall labour force in 2007. Survey results on the seriousness of the unemployment situation can have different interpretations. On one hand, regarding the 65 per cent of the sample who were unemployed, 35 per cent appeared to have left work voluntarily and 22 per cent were looking for their first job. Frictional unemployment therefore appears to account for 57 per cent of the sample. With 35 per cent of the sample in employment of some kind, only 8 per cent of the sample appeared to be structurally unemployed. On the other hand, 74 per cent of the sample had been unemployed for more than 6 months, indicating a more serious situation than is normally associated with frictional unemployment. The majority of our sample of job seekers comprises young people who do not appear to possess adequate vocational skills. Most of the job seekers are only interested in taking up clerical and lower white collar office jobs, preferably in the public sector, and even within this category, a large number appear to be not sufficiently qualified. This is an occupational sector which is oversaturated as there are too many job seekers chasing the same clerical, office jobs. Our job seekers are not interested in taking up jobs in the more manual, skilled and semi-skilled sectors such as agriculture, technical and the trades, where there appears to be ample vacancies, especially if we deduct the large number of foreign workers from these sectors. There is a serious lack of entrepreneurial interest in our sample of job seekers. While there is a certain level of choosiness, positively, a very large majority of our sample of job seekers have high levels of motivation to viii work, given their desired career, and they cannot be described as ‘lazy’ and apathetic persons. There is therefore a significant mismatch between skills and desired employment. More seriously, there is a very high mismatch of job expectations and actual requirements in the job market. • Policy Recommendations More seriously then, we are faced with a significant mismatch of career expectations and available employment. In the longer run, therefore, there is an important need for employment policy to work on the level of limitation attitudes of our school leavers; they must be guided towards other types of jobs, particularly within the manual, semi-skilled and skilled professions in the agriculture, technical and trades sectors which are heavily dominated by foreign labour. In the long run, therefore, there is a real policy need to increase VTET for appropriate skills acquisition and to orientate Bruneians towards the more manual, semi-skilled and skilled jobs, as this is the sector which has available job opportunities (given appropriate employment policy on foreign labour), i.e. ‘changing mindsets’ of our Bruneians. We acknowledge that to quite a large extent, this educational component has been addressed by Brunei’s new SPN 21 but this will only be of impact in the long run, as full implementation of SPN 21 will only take place in 2010. Immediate VTET and attitudinal change interim measures need to be implemented as a matter of urgency. Further, we need to strongly emphasise that our recommended policy is only likely to succeed if real efforts are made to make this targeted sector, i.e. the manual, semi-skilled and skilled professions in the agriculture, technical and trades sectors of employment, more attractive to Bruneians, in terms of financial remuneration, job status and working conditions. Our findings show that a multidisciplinary/multi agency, integrated approach is required to tackle unemployment issues among registered job seekers. In addition to agencies charged with review of salary structures and employment policy, attitudinal change and expansion of vocational education require the concerted effort of various educational and socialisation agencies. Our findings are based on empirical data in that this is the first large scale study of its kind with regards to unemployment issues in Brunei. We hope our findings will be useful for policy formation and as a benchmark for future studies. Our sample is statistically representative of the study population: registered job seekers. The extent to which it accurately represents the total number of unemployed people in Brunei as a whole is unclear as there may be many more unemployed people who have not registered with the Labour Department. In order to tackle fully unemployment issues in Brunei and to assist with a nation-wide manpower planning model, we highly recommend that firstly, a full scale national and statistically representative study be made to measure the real extent of unemployment using the employment definition that we have recommended and, secondly, for a more specific study to be made to assess the extent and nature of graduate unemployment. ix Chapter 1. Introduction This research project is in response to the Terms of Reference issued by CSPS for a study on unemployment issues in Brunei. Questions raised in the TOR include: • What is the true extent of unemployment in Brunei? • What happens to secondary school leavers who do not receive university or vocational technical training? • Which social and educational categories of Bruneian youth are more vulnerable to unemployment? • What are the attitudes and job expectations of unemployed Bruneian youth? • Is there a mismatch between training or educational qualifications and skills required in the Brunei economy? • Are there skills shortages in Brunei? • Why does the number of temporary residents in the workforce far exceed the number of unemployed Bruneians? • How can the problem of unemployment be addressed? • Which Government agencies are responsible for addressing unemployment? 1 Chapter 1 Introduction Following discussions with CSPS, it was agreed that the focus of this study should be on those job seekers who are currently registered with the Labour Department. We will not be attempting to conduct a national survey to estimate the true extent of unemployment. Rather, we will be investigating the registered unemployed themselves to ascertain the causes, nature, extent and consequences of their unemployment. In other words, we will attempt to answer the above stated questions raised in the TOR with reference to a specified sampling frame from the list of registered unemployed persons under the Labour Department. Our more general research objectives, which cover the above stated research questions, are as follows: a. Using internationally accepted standards, develop an appropriate definition of unemployment for Brunei; b. Examine the nature (or types) of unemployment within our sample using the formulated definition of unemployment by district, age, gender and educational qualifications; c. Identify the reasons for unemployment within our sample by district, age, gender and educational qualifications; and d. Provide discussion and summary of policy implications and recommendations from findings. The remainder of our report is organised as follows: Chapter 2 describes our research methodology. Chapter 3 presents research findings and consists of two main parts. Part one concerns the profiles (e.g. education, age), attitudes, aspirations and job seeking efforts of the respondents. Part two concerns the more technical aspects of unemployment among the sample population and discusses issues such as whether the respondents would be classified as unemployed using International Labour Organisation (ILO) guidelines. Chapter 4 considers Brunei’s membership of the ILO and the obligations that come with membership. Finally, Chapter 5 represents recommendations and conclusions. 2 Chapter 2. Research Methodology Our study made use of the following data collection methods: • Review of secondary sources of data • Survey Questionnaire: Job seekers • Focus group Interview: Employers 2.1 Review of Secondary Sources of Data As with most other research, secondary sources of data and information such as official statistics, official documents, academic books and papers, if not the main research methodology, are most invaluable to supplement primary data. This study made extensive use of the statistics provided by the Labour Department, official documents such as the 2001 Brunei Census, and documentation of unemployment issues from other countries. 2.2 Survey Questionnaire: Job Seekers The use of a specially designed questionnaire administered by an interviewer to a group of job seekers is the main method that we used for our study. As such, it is necessary to elaborate upon the design of the questionnaire and sampling design as follows. 3 Chapter 2 Research Methodology 2.2.1 Design of Questionnaire The making of a relevant and effective questionnaire for our sample of job seekers to answer was one of the more complex parts of our study. Keeping in mind budgetary and time constraints, it was necessary that we designed a questionnaire that would cover the extensive number of research questions raised by CSPS whilst at the same time remain short and succinct enough to maintain the attention of our sample. There are numerous good examples of questionnaires used in other countries to study similar unemployment issues and we have incorporated questions used in these other research projects where possible. Main examples would be the many Labour Force Surveys which are normally conducted by the relevant government departments (see for example, Australian Bureau of Statistics 6202.0). The only drawback or constraint for us was that Brunei itself has not conducted its own labour force survey since 1995, although it is currently undertaking a new survey. After several amendments and refinements, our final questionnaire was then pilot tested upon a small sample of 17 unemployed youths who had been selected using purposive sampling. Our final questionnaire is 16 pages long and consists of 32 questions. To keep within the required time frame, to meet objectivity, to cater for the wide-ranging literacy abilities of our sample and in view of the range of questions to be covered, nearly all the questions were closed ended questions. As far as possible, we provided many answer options usually as matrix types of questions structured to capture a wide range of possible answers. Bearing in mind the above stated CSPS research questions and Terms of Reference, our range of questions were further refined into the following categories: 1. Sample profile: 2. Employment status: 3. Work experience: Q1 – 11 Q12 – 20 (minus Q18 and Q14 b) Q12- 20 (minus Q18 and Q14b) 4. Job seekers’ own reasons for UE: Q18 and Q22 5. Job seekers’ efforts to find a job: Q21 6. Job seekers’ required preparation skills: Q23 and Q26 4 7. Job seekers’ attitudes: Q25, Q31 and Q32 8. Job seekers’ aspirations: Q24, Q29 and Q30 Chapter 2 Research Methodology 2.2.2 Sampling Design As the questionnaire is the main instrument for our study, questionnaire respondents are our main sample for study. Initially we had intended to study a statistically representative sample of unemployed persons in general in Brunei. However, following discussions with CSPS, it was agreed that for this first CSPS study, the sample would be more specific and would focus on a more prioritised sector of ‘unemployed’ persons, i.e. those persons who have registered with the Government’s Labour Department as persons who are in search of employment, so called registered ‘job seekers’. The number of registered job seekers at any given time over the past year has remained relatively constant ranging between approximately 6,000 to 8,000 persons. Our sampling frame, which was fortunately quite readily available, consisted therefore of the Labour Department’s list of registered job seekers within a given time of the year of reference. In order to obtain a statically representative and reliable sample, the following sample issues were addressed with utmost care: a. Ensuring sampling accuracy: sampling error occurs since a sample, rather than the entire population, is surveyed. The aim is to reduce the standard error and to achieve a confidence level of at least 98% or 99%. The rule of thumb widely used by researchers (Neuman 2006) for moderately large populations (about 10,000) is a sampling ratio of around 10% to achieve a confidence level of 99%. As the population for study (i.e. registered job seekers in Brunei) is also unarguably a homogenous group, we decided therefore to aim for a sample ratio of 10%, a sample of around 600 persons for our study. The latest statistics provided to us by Labour Department were those for 2007, and we selected June 2007 data, as follows: Table 2.1 Job Seekers by District, June 2007 District Population Sample Brunei Muara Kuala Belait Tutong Temburong Total by District 1820 2252 1734 504 6310 (32%) 322 (32%) 322 (28%)276 (8%)80 1000 Source: Labour Department’s full data on registered job seekers for June 2007 5 Chapter 2 Research Methodology We require a sample size of 631 persons to achieve a sampling ratio of 10% to be precise, as the total registered job seekers for April 2007 were 6,310 persons. As it is likely that not every selected person will turn up for the survey or answer reliably enough, we decided to over-sample to 1000 persons to make sure that this sample is achieved. Ideally, we would have liked to incorporate other variables into our sampling design, for example, taking into account educational, gender and age categories. However, in view of time and administrative constraints, we decided to only make sure that our sample is representative of district size. The 1000-sample size was selected from the 4 districts using systematic random sampling design. In view of the higher number of unemployed persons in Kuala Belait in comparison with its population, we divided both Brunei Muara and Belait percentages equally with 32% each, Tutong with 28% and Temburong with 8% of the sample size. 322 respondents came from Brunei Muara and Belait, 276 from Tutong and 80 from Temburong. The list of 1000 names was obtained by asking the Labour Department to assist us, as the details that we would require to contact our sample (i.e. names, address and telephone numbers) are restricted and confidential information. Our request to Labour Department was for them to pick 1000 names from the June 2007 register in the following way: Select every other 10 names from the register until 1000 names have been obtained. Following the systematic random sampling principle, this helps to ensure that our sample has been randomly chosen from the register. b. Minimising non-sampling error: Non-sampling error arises from possible errors in the collection and processing of data. Care was taken to make sure that our questionnaire was designed appropriately taking into account proper formatting, reliability and validity of questions. As the questions covered areas that may be sensitive as well as complex to our respondents, we decided that it was necessary for the answering of the questionnaires to be guided by a well-trained and capable interviewer. All 1000 persons were requested by an official Labour Department letter (by mail) to turn up all at the same time on a survey date of 19 February 2008 in one venue (Chancellor Hall, UBD). So that respondents would be given an incentive to attend, lucky draw prizes ranging from mobile phones, restaurant and supermarket vouchers were arranged. In addition to a motivational talk from a career guidance officer from the Ministry of Education, respondents were also assured that a selection of potential employers would be present at the survey day for their consultation and possible ‘on the spot’ interviews. A total of 16 employers (companies) attended the survey, as will be elaborated in the next section. 6 Chapter 2 Research Methodology Another noteworthy effort was our arrangements for a team of research assistants to make personal phone calls to a majority of the 1000 persons to encourage attendance. Altogether, our programme agenda and efforts to contact respondents for the survey proved to be a very successful arrangement as there was a high response and turn-up on the survey day. A total of 680 job seekers turned up for the survey and very significantly, despite the BSB venue, this included high and sufficient attendance of job seekers from the Belait, Tutong and Temburong districts. Before entering/coding of data, every returned questionnaire was scrutinised to check if sufficient questions had been answered. At the end, 44 were discarded as they were poorly completed and our sample was set at 636 persons thereby meeting the desired 10 per cent sample size. At the survey stage, the interviewer together with the two research consultants and research assistants then guided all respondents question by question to make sure that all questions were answered with comprehension within a tolerable space of time – approximately 1 hour and 20 minutes. All necessary steps were taken to ensure confidentiality and anonymity so that each respondent would be comfortable in answering the questionnaire. Thus the interviewer explained that respondents did not have to divulge their name, minimal writing was required (multiple choice type of questions) and that at the end of the survey, the questionnaires would be randomly placed into a box for processing. The questions were presented in Dwi Bahasa and the translations made sure that the questions were easy to understand. For complex questions, the interviewer would then clarify, illustrate with everyday examples and elaborate as required. 2.3 Focus Group Interviews: Employers This took place on the survey day itself, immediately after the questionnaires had been administered to the job seekers. A total of 16 companies participated in the survey as job recruitment exhibitors attended our focus group interviews. The companies were drawn from the private sector and included Standard Chartered Bank, Baiduri Bank, The Brunei Times, Royal Brunei Technical Services, DST, AIA, Bureau Veritas, Rizqun Hotel, Empire Hotel, Brunei Petroleum and others. The interview was held in an open dialogue format, chaired by CSPS Executive Director and assisted by the two UBD research consultants. The interview lasted about 1 hour 30 minutes and the above stated research questions formed the reference points for the discussion. 7 Chapter 3. Research Findings This section will provide a summary and analysis of our job seeker survey findings which is the main part of our research. Where relevant, we will draw on the findings arising from our focus group interviews with employers. Our analysis is also primarily based on the Labour Department statistical breakdown of registered job seekers for June 2007. Our research findings will be presented in two main sections. The first discusses the sample profile, job seeker aspirations and attitudes, their efforts to find work and their views on the preparation that they require. The second section on research findings discusses unemployment from a more technical perspective. It considers the International Labour Organisation definitions of unemployment, underemployment and inadequate employment and gives a detailed analysis of the nature of unemployment in Brunei from considering sample responses. 3.1 Profile, Efforts, Skills, Aspirations and Attitudes 3.1.1 Sample Profile As explained previously, our job seeker sample consists of 636 respondents. To summarise, out of the 636 respondents, 386 (60.7%) were females and 250 (39.3%) were males (Table 3.1). The higher number of females in our sample is actually quite representative of our study population (i.e. 8 Chapter 3 Research Findings total population of job seekers registered in 2007 with the Labour Department), the latter consisting of 56.4% females compared with 43.6% males. Predictably, the majority of our sample is of the younger age group: 60.3% are 24 years old and below. Slightly over half of our sample (62.7%) is still single and most of the remaining respondents (33.6%) are married. Table 3.1 Age and Gender Characteristics Characteristics Descriptions Sample Size Gender Age Group Marital Status No of Respondents (N) Percentage (%) N = 636 Male 250 39.3 Female 386 60.7 15-19 102 16 20-24 282 44.3 25-29 118 18.6 30-34 63 9.9 35-39 43 6.8 40-55 24 3.8 Missing 4 0.6 Total 636 100 Single 399 62.7 Married 214 33.6 Divorced/ Widowed 21 3.3 More than 1 spouse 0 0 Missing 2 0.3 636 100 Total The majority (93.4%) of our sample as shown in Table 3.2 are citizens, which is to be expected as only citizens and permanent residents can register with the Labour Department as job seekers. Malays form 87.4% of the sample, followed by Indigenous at 6%, Chinese at 2% and ‘others’ at 4.4%. The mean number of household members is 7.7 persons. 9 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.2 Residency Status and Race Characteristics Descriptions Citizenship Race Household members No of Respondents (N) Percentage (%) Citizen 594 93.4 Stateless 1 0.2 Permanent Resident 38 6 Others 0 0 Missing 3 0.5 Total 636 100 Malay 556 87.4 Indigenous 38 6 Chinese 13 2 Others 28 4.4 Missing 1 0.2 Total 636 100 Mean Number 7.7 Minimum Number 0 Maximum Number 28 The majority of our sample comes from the lower income brackets as shown in Table 3.3. Taking $2,500 and above (total monthly income for all household members) as the higher income bracket and also noting that a substantial number of our sample did not answer the question (22% as ‘missing’ figures), quite a substantial majority of about 90% of our sample’s household family income is from the lower income bracket of below $2,500. In view of the approximate monthly poverty thresholds suggested by other studies, it may be quite a concern to note that most of our job seekers (79.5%) may be seen to be living within or at semi-poverty thresholds of per capita monthly income of $280 and below. 10 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.3 Income Characteristics Characteristics Descriptions Household Family Income Per Capita Income No of Respondents (N) Percentage (%) $0-$280 35 7.0 $281-$450 40 8.0 $451-$750 119 23.8 $751-$1000 134 26.9 $1001-$1500 58 11.6 $1501-$2500 63 12.6 $2500-$3500 24 4.8 Above $3501 36 7.2 Missing 137 Total 636 100 $0-$280 395 79.5 $281-$450 50 10.1 $451-$750 35 7.0 $751-$1000 12 2.4 $1001-$1500 4 0.8 $1501-$2500 1 0.2 $2500-$3500 0 0 Above $3501 0 0 Missing 139 Total 636 100 Table 3.4 shows that the larger numbers of our sample come from Brunei Muara (33%) and Tutong (30.7%), slightly less from Belait (24.8%) and Temburong (11.5%). The variation of representation by district from our actual study population is quite negligible in view of the distance of the survey venue. In fact, we were very impressed with the attendance of job seekers from Belait and Temburong as we did not expect so many to turn up and in all, the numbers are a sufficient representation for each district. 11 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.4 Place of Residence Characteristics Descriptions No of Respondents (N) Percentage (%) Original Residence Brunei Muara 210 33 Kuala Belait 158 24.8 Tutong 195 30.7 Temburong 73 11.5 Total 636 100 Brunei Muara 228 35.8 Kuala Belait 150 23.6 Tutong 202 31.8 Temburong 52 8.2 Missing 4 0.6 636 100 Current Residence Total Similar to the study population, most of our sample are school leavers (Table 3.5); about 80% have only attained a maximum of Form 5 schooling. In fact, a substantial 30% are educated up to Form 3 only. There does not seem to be an extraordinary number of SPU/STPU qualified job seekers. Only 7.1% of our sample has received VTE education, 6.3% at Form 6 level and only 2.4% of our sample is university graduates. Table 3.5 Highest Educational Qualifications Number of Respondents (N) Percentage (%) 191 30 SPU 8 1.3 STPU 4 0.6 Form 4 & 5 only 327 51.4 Up to VTE only 45 7.1 Form 6 only 40 6.3 University level and above 15 2.4 Missing 6 0.9 636 100 Up to Form 3 only Total 12 Chapter 3 Research Findings Some questions arising from the sample profiles are as follows: • Are our females more likely to be unemployed compared to males? • Are school leavers more likely to be unemployed compared to college and university graduates? Much more specific follow-up research focussing on the above questions would be required to provide a detailed answer to the above questions but it is possible for us to point out a number of factors of analysis. Overall, it needs to be noted that our sample consists of persons who have actually made the effort to register with the Labour Department as persons in search of a job. This means that our study population may not fully represent the overall unemployed persons in Brunei, as there are many reasons why some unemployed persons may not decide to register as job seekers. For the disparity between genders, it may be that males, being less discriminated against in education and in the job market, would be more likely to find suitable employment. On the other hand, it may be noteworthy that there is a possibility that females are more conscientious and there are more females compared to males who have the initiative to register themselves with the Labour Department. Another reason could be the possibility that the types of job vacancies that the Labour Department have on offer are usually ‘female-centric’ types of jobs such as secretarial and clerical work and lower, non-professional and/or non-skilled types of jobs. In view of the types of job on offer, unemployed males may therefore have less incentive to register. Regarding the disparity in terms of educational qualifications, it may be that higher educated people are more likely to be in employment as education is the main passport to get a job. On the other hand, we should not jump to the conclusion that there is therefore a low rate of graduate unemployment in Brunei for the same reason that the nature of jobs available for registered job seekers is confined to lower and non-professional types of jobs which graduates would not be very interested in, and would therefore not appear as a statistic in the job seeker register in the first place. We therefore recommend for follow up for a more focussed study to be undertaken. Very importantly, in view of the sample limitations stated above we would propose that a proper answer to both questions cannot be generalised from a sample of registered job seekers and a more representative sample of our overall Brunei population would be needed instead. 13 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.1.2 Job Seekers’ Efforts to Find a Job The main efforts made by our respondents to get a job as shown in Table 3.6 are ‘regularly looked for job advertisements’ (91.2%), ‘asked friends & others’ (82.1%), and, ‘registered with the labour department’ (76.8%). Only a negligible minority state that they have ‘given up looking for a job’ (5.4%) and doing ‘nothing, not bothered’ (1.0%). In view of the finding that a substantial majority state that they at least regularly looked through job advertisements and asked friends and others, it would be reasonable to say that the majority of our sample is quite active in their search for a job. The majority of our sample cannot therefore be described as inactive or apathetic job seekers. Table 3.6 What have you done in the last 4 weeks before today to get a job, or tried to change your current work situation? Actions Yes No Missing Total 487 (91.2) 47 (8.8) 102 534 Asked friends, relatives & others 408 (82.1) 89 (17.9) 139 497 Registered with the labour department 377 (76.8) 114 (23.2) 145 491 Approached potential employers 70 (20.5) 272 (79.5) 294 342 Advertised myself in job advertisement 64 (18.6) 281 (81.4) 291 345 Tried to start own business 46 (13.9) 285 (86.1) 305 331 Nothing, not bothered 3 (1.0) 305 (99.0) 328 308 Given up looking for a job 17 (5.4) 298 (94.6) 321 315 5 (1.6) 303 (98.4) 328 308 27 (8.4) 294 (91.6) 315 321 Regularly looked through job advertisements Applied for credit/ money to start own business Others 3.1.3 Preparation Skills Required Given that the majority of our sample consists of genuine and quite active job seekers, what preparation skills do they need to assist them in their job search? We focussed upon the skills required for job search, and the skills and training required for the actual desired job. 14 Chapter 3 Research Findings An overwhelming majority of our sample responded that they would require a range of all five support services presented at Table 3.7 for their job search. Definitely, our sample feels that they require assistance with ‘preparation skills’ (65.3%) ‘CV preparation and design’ (86.1%), ‘Interview preparation’ (92.8%), and, ‘Job search skills and activities’ (84.1%). Table 3.7 (Q.23) To what extent do you need the following services to support and prepare you for a job search? Supports CV preparation and design Essential Not necessary Missing Total 513 (86.1) 83 (13.9) 40 596 498 (84.1) 94 (15.9) 44 592 Presentation skills 387 (65.3) 206 (34.7) 43 593 Interview preparation 553 (92.8) 43 (7.2) 40 596 Job matching 379 (63.6) 217 (36.4) 40 596 Job search skills and activities On top of the list and significantly the most commonly cited sought after skills and training required, as presented at Table 3.8, is ‘IT & Computing and Clerical Courses’ (49.7%). The question is in open-ended format and the answers have been collated by picking the first prioritised answer and coded into five categories. The preference for IT & Computing and Clerical courses is not surprising as it is a reflection of our findings discussed later that the majority of our sample are mainly after the clerical, lower white collar type of occupation, and, a large proportion of this sample may not be qualified enough for this type of occupation. Table 3.8 (Q. 24b) What additional skills, training and support do you feel you need to be prepared for the job interview? Types of Skills, Trainings & Supports Frequency Percent IT computing and clerical courses 267 49.7% Others (unascertainable/mixture) 140 26.1% Specialisation skills and courses 55 10.2% Communication and presentation skills 39 7.3% Business, accounting and management courses 36 6.7% Total 537 100.0% 15 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.1.4 Job Seekers’ Reasons for Unemployment Table 3.9 is a summary of our sample’s answers when asked to give their own reasons why they stopped working. The question is in open format and the answers have been collated and categorised into six sections. It can be seen that from our sample of those who have worked before (i.e. about 78%, see Table 3.22), it is likely that the majority actually chose to stop or leave their jobs. Dissatisfaction with working conditions is the main reason for leaving. Reasons such as ‘look for new better job and experience’, ‘Got new (suitable) job’, ‘long working hours’, ‘job too difficult’, ‘inconvenient working hours’ and ‘boss too demanding’ are the most frequent reasons cited. Interrelated, dissatisfaction with wages and salary is the other main reason for stopping work. The main reasons cited here include ‘low wages’ and ‘delay in payment of wages’. It is also important to note the relatively high numbers of other work constraints cited, especially ‘transport problems’. Transport problems as a major constraint to employment was in fact quite emphasised by employers at the focus group interviews. In view of the fact that the majority of our sample comes from quite low income brackets, it is likely that lack of transport may have hindered their employability. Table 3.9 Reasons for Stopping Working Reasons for Stopping Working Frequency Working conditions/Look for or got new/suitable/better/permanent job 410 Wage/salary/financial problems 263 Retired/fired/dismissed/retrenched/contract ended/bankruptcy 136 Transport problems 78 Continue studies and education 75 Family or personal problems 69 Total 1031 To ensure that as many possible reasons for unemployment can be explored and for reliability testing, we also provided a number of similar questions on the same issue for our respondents to answer. As shown in Table 3.10, this time the question was closed ended and respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with 11 possible reasons for their current state of unemployment. 16 Chapter 3 Research Findings The top four reasons of ‘no appropriate/relevant jobs’ (74.2%), ‘employers prefer foreign workers’ (73.1%), ‘too many others more qualified/able chasing for the same job’ (67.1%) and ‘don’t have relevant work skills’ (51.9%), which respondents agreed with would be most significant, as these outnumber respondents who disagreed with each of the reasons. Table 3.10 (Q.22) What, in your opinion, are the main reasons why you have NOT been successful in finding a job, or do not have a job? Opinions Agree Disagree Missing Total Because there are no appropriate/ relevant jobs on offer 408 (74.2) 142 (25.8) 86 550 Because employers prefer to take foreign workers 399 (73.1) 147 (26.9) 90 546 Because there are too many other more qualified/ able people chasing for the same jobs 367 (67.1) 180 (32.9) 89 547 Because I don’t have the relevant work skills 285 (51.9) 264 (48.1) 87 549 Because employers are not willing to pay me a proper salary 219 (40.3) 324 (59.7) 93 543 Because I am overqualified for all available jobs or jobs offered 132 (24.6) 405 (75.4) 99 537 Because I was not prepared enough at the job interview 114 (21.1) 427 (78.9) 95 541 Because I did not like the job offered 113 (20.8) 431 (79.2) 92 544 Because I am not qualified enough for the jobs I am seeking 113 (26.3) 317 (73.7) 97 430 Because I have permanently given up looking for a job 46 (8.5) 496 (91.5) 94 542 Because I am not qualified enough for the jobs that are available 42 (9.3) 412 (90.7) 93 454 17 Chapter 3 Research Findings As discussed later, approximately 65% of our sample is currently unemployed and the majority of this category (58%) states that they now ‘cannot find a job’. Analysing this section, the following points may be noted. As shown previously in Table 3.9, it would seem that for the majority of our sample, their current state of unemployment is a voluntary situation arising mainly from the job seekers’ dissatisfaction with the work conditions and wage structure of their previous jobs. It would seem that the majority of our sample may have been working in jobs that are perceived as inferior to them; they have left voluntarily and they are now in search of better jobs. This same majority who are currently unemployed or in search of jobs, now have difficulty in their job search because the better categories of jobs that they are looking for are less available in terms of job vacancies, and because the market and recruitment process for such preferred jobs are more competitive and restricted. 3.1.5 Job Seekers’ Aspirations Which types of jobs, then, is our sample in search of? Table 3.11 contains the answers given by our sample when asked the open-ended question of what is the main job that they are looking for. The answers have been collated and categorised into 17 sections. Bearing in mind a missing figure of about 19%, the overwhelming majority preferred a job in the ‘clerical’ category (43.7%). The next preferred job is ‘security’ (13.3%), ‘skilled worker’ (7.2%) and ‘receptionist’ (4.6%). This confirms our earlier prediction that our sample consists predominantly of those who are looking for the lower range or non-professional type of occupations. Even within this range of occupations, other than quite a distinct preference for ‘security guard‘ work, it is interesting to note that there is a very clear preference for the white collar office type of work. The more manual type of work in agriculture, building and construction is definitely not popular and the entrepreneurial venture of ‘starting own business’ is also not preferred. 18 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.11 (Q.24) What is the main job you are looking for now? Type of jobs Frequency Percent Clerical 224 (43.7) Security 68 (13.3) Others 66 (12.9) Skilled Worker 37 (7.2) Receptionist 24 (4.7) Teacher 21 (4.1) Police 17 (3.3) Professional 15 (2.9) Army 11 (2.1) Sales 9 (1.8) IT & Computing 5 (1.0) Own Business 4 (0.8) Manager 3 (0.6) Media 3 (0.6) Fisherman, Farming, Agricultural 2 (0.4) Building & Construction 2 (0.4) Religious Teacher 2 (0.4) Total 513 (100.0) Missing 123 Table 3.12 is another attempt to check job preferences whereby our sample was asked to rank in order their desired jobs. The pattern is more or less the same with ‘General Clerical and Office work‘ and ‘Security guard’ as the main choices. 19 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.12 (Q.30) Rankings of Jobs Security Guard and Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Frequency Frequency Frequency 131 (21.6) 34 (6.6) 33 (5.8) 18 (3.0) 19 (3.7) 11 (1.9) 5 (0.8) 4 (0.8) 8 (1.4) Sales 22 (3.6) 26 (5.1) 16 (2.8) Skilled Worker 28 (4.6) 27 (5.3) 20 (3.5) Clerical 196 (32.3) 28 (5.5) 60 (10.5) Receptionist 48 (7.9) 29 (5.7) 85 (14.9) Professional 32 (5.3) 30 (5.9) 21 (3.7) IT & Computing 9 (1.5) 31 (6.1) 28 (4.9) Teacher 40 (6.6) 32 (6.3) 32 (5.6) Manager 5 (0.8) 33 (6.4) 21 (3.7) Religious Teacher 11 (1.8) 34 (6.6) 14 (2.5) Army 10 (1.7) 35 (6.8) 23 (4.0) Police 21 (3.5) 36 (7.0) 59 (10.3) Media 12 (2.0) 37 (7.2) 60 (10.5) Own Business 9 (1.5) 38 (7.4) 62 (10.9) Others 9 (1.5) 39 (7.6) 18 (3.2) 606 (100.0) 512 (100.0) 571 (100.0) Unskilled Fisherman, Farming, Agriculture Building & Construction Total As with other issues, there does not seem to be a significant variation of findings in terms of district, age and gender with regard to job preference. Predictably however, the variation is more significant in terms of educational qualifications as shown in Table 3.13 below. 20 1 4 12 35 9 0 0 1 0 0 5 4 1 0 28 Building & Construction Sales Skilled Worker Clerical Receptionist Professional IT & Computing Teacher Manager Religious Teacher Army Police Media Own Business Others 141 1 Fisherman, Farming, Agriculture Total 40 (100.0) (19.9) (0.0) (0.7) (2.8) (3.5) (0.0) (0.0) (0.7) (0.0) (0.0) (6.4) (24.8) (8.5) (2.8) (0.7) (0.7) (28.4) Up to Form 3 only Security Type of Job Table 3.13 Job Preference 287 30 4 2 10 6 2 1 12 2 4 14 150 20 5 0 1 24 (100.0) (10.5) (1.4) (0.7) (3.5) (2.1) (0.7) (0.3) (4.2) (0.7) (1.4) (4.9) (52.3) (7.0) (1.7) (0.0) (0.3) (8.4) SPU/STPU/Form 4 &5 above 35 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 22 2 0 0 0 3 (100.0) (2.9) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (5.7) (5.7) (5.7) (2.9) (62.9) (5.7) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (8.6) Form 6 35 6 0 0 3 0 0 1 2 1 4 0 14 2 0 1 0 1 (100.0) (17.1) (0.0) (0.0) (8.6) (0.0) (0.0) (2.9) (5.7) (2.9) (11.4) (0.0) (40.0) (5.7) (0.0) (2.9) (0.0) (2.9) VTE 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (8.3) (33.3) (0.0) (41.7) (0.0) (8.3) (8.3) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) University 510 65 4 3 17 11 (100.0) (12.7) (0.8) (0.6) (3.3) (2.2) (0.4) (0.6) 3 2 (4.1) (1.0) (2.9) (4.7) (43.5) (7.3) (1.8) (0.4) (0.4) (13.3) 21 5 15 24 222 37 9 2 2 68 Total Chapter 3 Research Findings 21 Chapter 3 Research Findings Taking a benchmark of 10% and above, the following is a summary of the preferred jobs for the different educational categories of our sample: Up to Form 3 only: Security (40 persons or 28.4%), Clerical (35 persons or 24.8%) SPU/STPU/Form 4& 5: Clerical (150 persons or 52.3%) Form 6: Clerical (22 person or 62.9%) VTE: Clerical (14 persons or 40%), Professional (4 person or 11.4%) University: Professional (5 persons or 41.7%), Teacher (4 persons or 33.3%) Is the clear preference for ‘clerical’ white collar jobs from those educated only up to Form 3 up to those with VTE qualifications a realistic choice? From our study of a range of advertisements for clerical positions both in the private and public sector, it can be said that typically, employers require at least 4 ‘O’ level passes, language competency, word-processing and basic ICT skills. In terms of required qualifications for those who have specified a preference for the clerical category, it would seem that at least 53% of those with education from SPU/STPU and Form 5 and lower would not be qualified for this job as indicated in Table 3.14. Moreover, if they were to possess additional skills, in word-processing and ICT for example, it may be necessary to note that this would be a very competitive job to pursue, in view of the fact that even those higher qualified at Form 6 and VTE levels, in addition to foreign labour, would at the same time be competing for the same job. Similarly, the same problem of competition amongst a large pool of job seekers would also apply for the next preferred employment of ‘security guard’. 22 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.14 Cross Tabulation for Educational Qualifications (Spu and Below 4 ‘O’ Levels Passes Job Seekers) and Career Desired Below 4 ‘O’ level Passes SPU Security 13 (8.0) 3 (9.7) Sales 1 (0.6) 2 (6.5) Skilled Worker 12 (7.4) 0 0.0 Clerical 86 (53.1) 13 (41.9) Receptionist 8 (4.9) 0 0.0 Professional 3 (1.9) 0 0.0 IT & Computing 3 (1.9) 1 (3.2) Teacher 6 (3.7) 5 (16.1) Manager 0 0.0 0 0.0 Religious Teacher 2 (1.2) 0 0.0 Army 2 (1.2) 1 (3.2) Police 4 (2.5) 2 (6.5) Media 2 (1.2) 0 0.0 Own Business 2 (1.2) 0 0.0 Others 18 (11.1) 4 (12.9) (100.0) 31 (100.0) Total 162 Table 3.15 shows the confidence level of our sample in terms of actually being able to get their previously stated desired job. The overall confidence level of getting their preferred job is quite low, at 55%. In other words, the majority of our sample are only giving themselves a 50-50 chance that they will get the job desired, which seems quite a daunting and pessimistic prospect for anybody who has to face such a future. 23 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.15 (Q.31) Chances of Getting a Job Chances Frequency Percent 0% 4 0.6 10% 11 1.7 20% 11 1.7 30% 19 3.0 40% 69 10.8 50% 217 34.1 60% 94 14.8 70% 98 15.4 80% 33 5.2 90% 26 4.1 100% 19 3.0 Missing 35 5.5 Total 636 100 Note: Overall average confidence level of getting a job is 55%. Efforts should, of course, be made to increase the employability of this main category of our sample so that they can qualify for a typical clerical post (i.e. provide further education courses in word processing, ICT, ‘O’ level and language skills etc.) and this is indicated by the sample’s answers on types of preparation skills required discussed earlier. On the other hand, it may be necessary to emphasise that perhaps other categories of jobs suitable for this sector of our population (i.e. our sample profile) could be created and/or made more attractive instead (i.e. in terms of work conditions and wages) so that the majority of our sample are not all chasing the same clerical or security guard positions. Table 3.16 shows our sample’s salary expectations. The salary categories of $451-$750 and $751-$1000 per month are the most desired range of salary. The mean within our sample is $751$1000. 24 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.16 (Q.27) Your Expected Salary Range Per Month Expected Salary Frequency Percent 281-450 34 5.3 451-750 251 39.5 751-1000 224 35.2 1001-1500 46 7.2 1501-2500 31 4.9 2501-3500 13 2.0 >3500 2 0.3 Missing 35 5.5 Total 636 100 0-280 The mean falls in the category of $751-$1000. Looking at Table 3.17, it would seem that our sample is mostly quite realistic in their expected salary: the average respondent from Form 6 expected a salary range of $451-$750; for the VTE sample it was $751-$1000, and for the University sample it was $1501-$2500, which does not seem very unobtainable generally. The only exception would be the expectations of those below Form 3 and possibly those with SPU and Form 4 & 5 for whom, without further vocational skills, it may be necessary for them to consider the lower salary range of $281-$450 instead of the stated $451-$750. Table 3.17 Mean Expected Salary Mean Expected Salary Salary Ranges Up to form 3 only 3.48 451-751 SPU/STPU/Form 4 &5 above 3.7 451-750 Form 6 3.73 451-750 VTE 4.24 751-1000 University 6.62 1501-2500 25 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.1.6 Job Seekers’ Attitudes In view of the relatively high numbers of local job seekers and the high presence of foreign labour, there is in Brunei a common preconception that our job seekers are too choosy, lazy, and hold the wrong attitude to work. Is this true? Table 3.18 is an attempt to analyse the attitudes of our sample in terms of whether they are in fact choosy - their willingness to work. As shown, the majority positively agree that they are willing to take up any job so that they are no longer unemployed (94.6%), don’t mind working in the private sector (95.5%), are willing to take up a job below their qualifications so that they are no longer unemployed (88.0%), and accept a job below expected salary range so that they are no longer unemployed (82.5%). These findings show a very positive attitude and indicate that, on the whole, our sample is actually not choosy in terms of their career choice. This is quite a contradiction to our findings discussed previously, that the majority are quite particular and very clearly prefer the better paid clerical, white collar types of jobs. Our analysis here is that our sample is quite choosy in terms of the more ‘inferior’ and manual types of jobs that are lower paid, but their answers in Table 3.18 were made in view of getting their desired clerical white collar type of job which is a bit better paid. This is quite likely as there is a contradictory agreement within the majority of our sample that they would only accept a job that matches their qualification. Therefore it may be quite apt to conclude that the majority of our sample is, on the one hand, choosy in that they are not keen to take up ‘inferior’ and manual types of jobs which are low paid. That is the extent of their choosiness. On the other hand, they are not choosy and, in fact, are very willing to work for their desired jobs, usually of the clerical and white collar types of job. Further, it seems also confirmed that quite a big proportion of our sample, slightly over half of the sample is still hoping for Public sector/Government positions as evident in their agreement that they would still prefer a lower paid and less suitable job in the public sector over a better paid and better matched job in the private sector. There is a contradictory agreement within the large majority of the sample (95.5%) that they ‘don’t mind working in the private sector’ but we take this to mean that they are agreeing to this only in a context whereby there is no opportunity of working in the public sector. 26 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.18 Selectivity of Respondents Work Opinions Agree Disagree Missing Total I am willing to take up any job that is given to me so that I am no longer unemployed 577 (94.6) 33 (5.4) 26 610 I am willing to accept a job offer that is below my expected salary range so that I am no longer unemployed 501 (82.5) 106 (17.5) 29 607 I am willing to take up a job offer that is below my qualifications so that I am no longer unemployed 534 (88.0) 73 (12.0) 29 607 I will only accept a job that matches my qualifications 403 (66.4) 204 (33.6) 29 607 I don’t mind working in the private sector 578 (95.5) 27 (4.5) 31 605 Even if the job offered by the private sector offers a good salary, I would still prefer a lower paid job in the Government sector 337 (55.4) 271 (44.6) 28 608 Even if the job offered by the private sector matches my qualification, I would still prefer a less suitable job in the Government sector 304 (50.6) 297 (49.4) 35 601 Table 3.19 shows a ranking of preferred characteristics which our sample has selected as important to them. Again, confirming our earlier findings, the most cited important characteristic of a job is ‘good salary and benefits’. Table 3.19 (Q.29) Important Characteristics of Job Important Characteristics Frequency Good salary & Benefits 268 Interesting & Challenging 246 Achieve something 118 Job security 113 Good Boss 100 Good people 81 Recognition 60 Time for family 49 Promotion 48 Easy Work 31 Helps people 31 Let me be my own boss 15 Power & prestige 11 Air condition 8 Others 1 27 Chapter 3 Research Findings It is well known that a job seeker’s motivation and attitude have an important impact on their success in finding employment. One useful way of classifying the attitude of job seekers is to divide our sample into their levels of motivation and limitation as follows: • Motivated job seekers are either a) self confident whereby they believe in themselves and their abilities; they are optimistic about future employment and they are enthusiastic job seekers, or b) lack confidence but they still desire work and keep trying even under constraints. • Demotivated job seekers may want to work but lack confidence and have low self esteem. They may have given up trying to find a job or they may even have no desire to work or feel that they do not have to work. • Unlimited job seekers are ‘open’ to different types of jobs search. • Limited job seekers place limits on the types of jobs desired, including specific conditions and job criteria (see ‘Job Seeker Attitudinal segmentation: An Australian Model ‘ Colmar Brunton Social Research, Dept of Employment and Workplace Relations, 2005). Table 3.20 shows our findings in terms of 16 statements which have been designed following standardised attitudinal measures used abroad. From Table 3.20, it would seem that the majority of our sample can be classified as mainly ‘motivated and self confident’ job seekers in that they are: 28 • quite confident job seekers as they ‘have a lot of confidence in themselves and their abilities’ (97.5%), ‘already know how to look for a job’ (78.4%), and ‘feel totally comfortable applying for jobs and during interviews’ (96.7%). There seem to be some contradiction in answers in that they feel that ‘they need more skills, education or training to get the right job’ (96.0%) but this could be viewed as a positive attitude in that they may still be confident but open to more training to get a better job; • enthusiastic job seekers as they ‘really want to work’ (98.7%), would NOT ‘rather be unemployed than take a job they do not like’ (87.4%), disagree that they feel they ‘should not have to do paid work’ (87.8%), disagree that they have ‘given up looking for a job’ (92.4%), ‘do more than the average unemployed person to find a job’ (91.9%), and ‘have been trying to find new ways to find a job’ (81.6%); • quite optimistic job seekers (although this is at a lower scale) as they “know they will find a job soon” (72.2%) and disagree that they “don’t think that any employer would want to employ them” (71.1%). Chapter 3 Research Findings On a more negative note however, our previous findings have also shown that unfortunately, in view of the persistent preference for the clerical and white collar type of jobs, better paid jobs, and the public sector over private sector, most of our job seekers have to be classified as limited job seekers. Segmentation of attitudes is useful in that it can help to identify job seeker needs and the type of policy response in dealing with the problem and this will be addressed in the forthcoming sections where appropriate. Table 3.20 (Q.32) Please indicate your opinion regarding the following statements: Personal Opinions on Employment Agree Disagree Missing Total (Positive Opinions) I already know how to look for a job 467 (78.4) 129 (21.6) 40 596 I have a lot of confidence in myself and my skills and abilities 595 (97.5) 15 (2.5) 26 610 I really want to work 601 (98.7) 8 (1.3) 27 609 I feel totally comfortable applying for jobs and during interviews 588 (96.7) 20 (3.3) 28 608 I do more than the average unemployed person to find job 557 (91.9) 49 (8.1) 30 606 I have been trying new ways to find a job 488 (81.6) 110 (18.4) 38 598 I know that I will find a job soon 432 (72.2) 166 (27.8) 38 598 I have been applying for lots of jobs recently 542 (90.3) 58 (9.7) 36 600 I think I need more skills, education or training to get the right job for myself 581 (96.0) 24 (4.0) 31 605 I don’t think I should have to do paid work at the moment 73 (12.2) 526 (87.8) 37 599 I don’t think any employer would want to employ me 174 (28.9) 428 (71.1) 34 602 I would rather be unemployed than take a job I don’t like 77 (12.6) 532 (87.4) 27 609 I don’t know what type of job I like 255 (42.6) 344 (57.4) 37 599 I have given up looking for a job 46 (7.6) 560 (92.4) 30 606 (Negative Opinions) 29 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.2 Unemployment, Inadequate Employment and Analysis of Unemployment in the Sample 3.2.1 Unemployment In simple terms, unemployment is generally defined as the number of adult workers who are able and willing to work, actively seeking work and currently not working. All adults are either employed, unemployed or not in the labour force. Accordingly, the labour force is defined as those who are either employed or unemployed. Those who are not in the labour force are generally the retired, children and those who either cannot work because of a disability or choose not to work because they are bringing up a family or for other reasons. This seems simple but a number of complexities arise when attempts are made to measure and interpret unemployment, as will be discussed in subsequent sections. The economic literature recognises three types of unemployment: • Structural unemployment refers to those who are unemployed because their skills do not match those required for available jobs. This type of unemployment usually occurs when the structure of the economy changes from, say, agricultural to industrial or from heavy industry to services or technology, or when educational programmes are not in line with the needs of the economy. Structural unemployment may require retraining and/or relocation of those involved. • Cyclical unemployment refers to those who are unemployed because of a general downward cycle in the economy as a whole, rather than because of a mismatch of skills. This type of unemployment can be addressed by macroeconomic policies to stimulate economic growth. • Frictional unemployment refers to those who are unemployed in the course of changing jobs or finding their first job. This type of unemployment is considered a normal part of a healthy economy where people may leave the labour force temporarily to return later after having a family or undergoing training. People may also change career throughout their working life. Any such activities may involve short periods of unemployment. It follows that even in a booming economy, there will always be some unemployment. Whether this is considered a problem or not depends on the type of unemployment. For example, Australia is currently in its seventeenth year of expansion and is experiencing severe labour shortages. The immigration quota has been raised to 150,000 per year in order to attract the necessary skilled migrants, yet unemployment is currently approximately 4% (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2008). In this case, 4% would be considered as the natural rate of unemployment. 30 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.2.2 Measurement of Unemployment Many countries have some sort of unemployment benefit system whereby the registered unemployed are paid an allowance. However, official unemployment is not usually measured by counting these claimants; rather it is estimated by a Labour Force Survey. According to International Labour Organisation (ILO) guidelines, surveys should be conducted at least twice a year. The Survey Population The ILO recommends that the survey population should be “all usual residents (de jure population)” or “all persons present in the country at the time of the survey (de facto population)”. It also allows some groups to be excluded, such as the armed forces or nomadic peoples. For example, the survey population might exclude: • members of the permanent defence forces • certain diplomatic personnel of overseas governments • overseas residents in the country (tourists etc) • members of non-national defence forces and their dependents stationed in a country The reason for excluding some groups from the survey is because certain people, such as tourists and non-national defence forces cannot, by definition, be in the labour force. A related point is that unemployment is quoted as a percentage of the labour force but certain groups, such as the armed forces, cannot be unemployed. They are not subject to the normal cyclical and structural conditions and changes in the economy so to include them in the survey would give misleading indications of the degree of unemployment. The Age Limit In order to determine the labour force, age limits are required. Where there is compulsory schooling up to a certain age, this age should be the minimum. The usual minimum age is 15 years and there is no necessity for a maximum. In Brunei, the 2001 Population Census reports the “working age” population as those aged 15 to 64. In countries where there is no legislated compulsory schooling, the ILO recommends the minimum age limit should be determined empirically. A maximum age limit is left up to the discretion of each country. 31 Chapter 3 Research Findings Employment The ILO defines the economically active population as people who are involved in the production of goods and services as defined by the United Nations system of national accounts during a specified time period. The economically active population is broken down into the usually active population and the currently active population. The former is all those who were either employed or unemployed over a long period of time, usually the previous year, while the latter is concerned with those who were either employed or unemployed over a short period of time such as one day or one week. The currently active population is defined as the labour force. If a person was not working or looking for work in the last week, they would not be in the labour force, but if they had been working at some other time in the last year, they would be counted as usually active. Employment is defined in terms of involvement in economic activities. That is, a person is considered to be employed if he or she has contributed to Gross Domestic Product during the reference period (one day or one week). The contribution to GDP is through the production of goods and services as defined by the UN System of National Accounts (revised 1993). Types of employment include: i. paid employment (one hour plus, in cash or kind) ii. formal attachment to job but did not work in reference period iii.self-employed (one hour plus, in cash or kind) iv.self employed not at work Unpaid work in family businesses and/or farms that results in economic output can also be considered as “employed”. Unemployment Unemployment includes all who, during the reference period, did not work in paid or selfemployment for even one hour, and who were: • available for work; this means that they were able to start during the reference period (may be extended from just available immediately); • seeking work within the reference period, usually 4 weeks prior to interview; this means having taken some specific action to find work. ILO (1982) standards allow relaxation of this criterion if the labour market is unorganised or of limited scope. 32 Chapter 3 Research Findings Note that this definition of unemployment would exclude those people who have secured employment but have not yet started work. These people are not available to start work and are not actively seeking work. But neither are they currently employed during the reference period. The ILO guidelines state that these “future starts” are unemployed whether or not they are seeking work. Every ILO member does not have to follow these guidelines to the letter. For example, Australia lists these people as not in the labour force since they are neither employed nor unemployed. In summary, the internationally accepted definitions of employment and unemployment are geared to seeing if an individual has contributed to GDP in a reference period, or not, rather than to see if there is a problem with unemployment. That is, if an individual has worked for only one hour in the last week he or she is classified as employed even if that person would have liked to have worked for longer but was unable to. 3.2.3 Underemployment and Inadequate Employment Since a person is considered to be employed if he or she has worked just one hour in the reference period, the ILO recognises the concepts of underemployment and inadequate employment. These concepts are used to contribute towards developing policies and programmes designed to promote “full, productive and freely chosen employment as specified in the Employment Policy Convention” (No.122, ILO October 1998). Underemployment Underemployment refers to time-related underemployment. In other words it refers to a situation where a person would like to work additional hours but is unable to. People are classified as underemployed if they: • are willing to work additional hours either in the same job, in an additional job or in a different job; • are available to work additional hours; • worked less than a threshold related to working time; this refers to a situation when the time worked in all jobs during the reference period is below a threshold chosen by each country to be appropriate. 33 Chapter 3 Research Findings Inadequate Employment Inadequate employment refers to those people who, during the reference period, wanted to change their jobs for any of a set of reasons chosen according to national circumstances. This category would, in particular, capture: • skill-related inadequate employment where a person was doing a job below their level of skills and/or education; • income-related inadequate employment where a person is unable to earn their desired salary because of inadequate tools and equipment or infrastructure; this does not refer to those who simply want a higher salary; • those who are forced to work excessive hours, to be defined by each country. 3.2.4 Employment and Unemployment in Brunei In Brunei, labour force statistics are compiled in two ways: by the Population Census and by the Labour Department through its list of registered job seekers. In the last Population Census 2001, the economically active population was as shown in Table 3.21 Table 3.21 Economically Active Population Aged 15-64 by Residential Status 2001 Number Percentage Economically active 88,513 100 Employed 77,899 88 Unemployed 10,614 12 Economically active 68,380 100 Employed 67,655 98.9 725 1.1 Citizens and PRs Temporary residents and others Unemployed Total Economically active 156,893 100 Employed 145,554 92.8 11,339 7.2 Unemployed Source: JPKE (2005) 34 Chapter 3 Research Findings The Census used the age group 15 to 64 to classify the economically active population but used ages 15 and above with no upper limit to analyse labour force participation rates. Questions regarding economic activity for both the one week and one year reference periods were asked, but it is not clear from the report which reference period was used for the economically active population. Regarding the specific question on activity status for the reference week 15 to 21 August 2001, six check boxes were given: working, actively looking for work, housewife, student, retired and others. Questions over the one year reference period concerned occupation and income. The census is not specifically designed to estimate unemployment and the questions are not as specific as they would be in a labour force survey. Presumably the “working” box would have been classified as employed, “actively looking for work” would have been classified as unemployed, and the others would have been not in the labour force. It is likely that the census data overstates unemployment as defined by the ILO, since those actively looking for work may have done one hour or more of work during the reference period. Moreover, 725 temporary residents were classified as unemployed (actively looking for work) when temporary residents will either generally be on working visas, and therefore working, or on dependent or student visas, and therefore not allowed to work. Moreover, the reference week was in August, which would have captured new school leavers and graduates who were looking for their first jobs. The other method of estimating unemployment in Brunei at the present time is by referring to the Labour Department’s register of job seekers. In May 2008 there were 7,766 registered job seekers, and it is from this list, with the much appreciated assistance of the Labour Department, that the sample population for this study has been drawn. The list of registered job seekers is not a definitive measure of unemployment for several reasons: • Firstly, job seekers may not be unemployed; they may, in fact, be working but looking for a better job and/or more pay; • Secondly, not all the unemployed will register with the Labour Department; many will use their own initiative to find work; • Thirdly, those who have registered with the Labour Department and have since found work are under no obligation to inform the Department and to have their names removed from the list. 35 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.2.5 A Definition of Unemployment for Brunei Brunei faces two major issues in the relevant definition and interpretation of unemployment. The first, and most important, is the fact that a large proportion of the labour force is made up of temporary residents who cannot be unemployed, by definition. These people are on working visas and their residency in Brunei is dependent upon them having a job. In the 2001 census, the working population of 146,2541 was made up of 78,538 citizens and permanent residents (PR) and 67,716 temporary residents and others. Unemployment was reported as 10,614 among the citizens and permanent residents and 725 among the temporary residents and others giving a total of 11,339 unemployed and an overall unemployment rate of 7.2%. These data raise two important points: if the 725 temporary residents were green IC holders, they cannot be officially unemployed because they should either be employed or on dependent visas and not legally allowed to work. The second point is whether the 67,716 temporary residents in the labour force should be counted for purposes of calculating unemployment. The basic principle behind estimating an unemployment rate is to see what percentage of those people who want to work are unable to find work. Since green IC holders cannot be unemployed as defined by the ILO, it could be argued that they should not be included in the data, in which case the actual unemployment rate would be 10,614 out of a citizen and PR labour force of 88,513 or 12%. The most recent labour force data, as reported by the Department of Economic Planning and Development (JPKE, 2007) shows a labour force of 182,800 and unemployment of 6,300 (3.4%). Since all those unemployed must be citizens or permanent residents, the question arises whether the temporary residents (foreign workers) should be included in the labour force for the purposes of this calculation. Singapore currently reports two figures for unemployment; (Ministry of Manpower Singapore 2008) overall and resident and, because a very large proportion of the non-resident labour force will be in employment, the resident figure is consistently higher than the overall figure. This distinction would be even more pronounced for Brunei for the reasons stated previously. The second issue concerns the nature of work in Brunei. Within the citizen and permanent resident working population in 2001 of 78,538, 64% (50,162) worked in the public sector. Of the 28,376 who worked in the private sector 54% (15,323) worked as legislators, administrators, professionals, technicians and clerks. So a total of 65,485 or 83% of citizens and permanent residents worked in professions that are generally full-time. Positions that might be part-time 1 The working population is reported as those aged 15 and above as opposed to the economically active population, which is those aged 15 to 64. The difference between those employed as reported in Table 3.21 and 146,254 is those who are 65+ and still working. 36 Chapter 3 Research Findings are dominated by temporary residents. This situation may change in the future if the private sector takes a bigger role in the economy of Brunei, but at the current time for a person to be employed, we would normally be looking at whether he or she had a full-time job. Under the ILO guidelines, anyone who has worked for one hour in the reference period is counted as employed because they have contributed to GDP. This may not be appropriate for Brunei at the current time, so if future research were to be done in this area we would suggest ascertaining not only who were unemployed according to ILO definition but also who were underemployed (see Section 3.2.3). 3.2.6 The Nature of Unemployment within the Sample The 636 job seekers in our sample were all registered with the Labour Department and all citizens or PRs. Their ages and educational characteristics are described in Section 3.1.1. This section analyses the employment history of these job seekers and considers how many of them would be classified as unemployed using ILO standards and what form of unemployment they are experiencing. 78% of the job seekers had worked before, meaning that they had either voluntarily left their jobs or had been terminated in some way. 22% had never worked before and were looking for their first job. Of those who had not worked before and were looking for their first job, 76%were below 24 years old. The educational qualifications of those who had never worked were skewed to the lower end with the greatest proportion having an education level of SPU/STPU/Form 4 and 5 at 54% followed by those with education only up to Form 3 at 31%. These shares of the total are generally in line with the educational levels of the sample population. Another way of looking at this is that of those with SPU/STPU/Form 4 and 5 education, 79% had worked before and those with up to Form 3 education 80% had worked before. These figures are only marginally different than the overall sample who had worked before, which is 78%. The amount of working experience is shown in Question 13. 27% of respondents had more than two years experience and 22% had less than six months experience. Question 14 lists the reasons given for stopping work. Out of the 1,031 responses given, only some 18% could be considered to be involuntary. These include the job, contract or project finishing in various ways, being dismissed and non-payment of wages. The majority of responses involved 37 Chapter 3 Research Findings dissatisfaction with the job for various reasons, particularly low pay. 31% of responses indicated that people had left jobs because of low pay and to look for a better job. People who have voluntarily left a job are, of course, equally as unemployed just as those who have been dismissed, but the type of unemployment is likely to be different. It was stated in Section 3.2.1 that frictional unemployment refers to those people who are unemployed in the course of changing jobs or finding their first job. The data in our sample indicate that 22% of respondents had not worked before and that 82% of those who had worked before had voluntarily left their jobs. This implies that the vast majority of those without work are frictionally unemployed. Of the 489 respondents who replied that they had worked before, 219 answered that they are currently working, meaning that only 65% of the sample was actually unemployed. The latest data shows a labour force of 182,800 and unemployment of 6,300 for an unemployment rate of 3.4% (JPKE 2007). But it appears that this figure for unemployment is actually those registered job seekers with the Labour Department. If this is the case then our survey indicates that actual unemployment would be only 65% of this figure or 2.2% 2. Table 3.22 summarises these data. Table 3.22 Respondents’ Employment Records Employment record Frequency Percentage of total Never Worked 137 22% Worked Before 489 78% Of which: Currently Working 219 35% Not Working Now 270 43% Unemployed (270+137) 407 65% Total 626 100% Note: “Worked Before” And “Never Worked Before” From Question 12; “Currently Working” From Question 15. Numbers may not add due to inconsistencies in non-response among questions. Of the 626 respondents who answered question 12, 219 (35%) are currently working. Of the 407 (65%) who are not working, 137 have never worked and 270 have work experience but are not working now. Of these 270, 82% of responses indicate that they have left work voluntarily. Some 2 Note that in Section 3.2.5 it was argued that there is a good case for not considering temporary residents in the labour force for the purposes of estimating the unemployment rate, in which case the citizen and PR unemployment rate would be higher. 38 Chapter 3 Research Findings respondents have given multiple reasons for leaving their jobs, but if we apply the 82% to the 270 respondents who have work experience but are not working now, it indicates that approximately 221 people left work voluntarily. It follows that frictional unemployment accounts for about 358 people (221 voluntary unemployed plus 137 looking for first jobs) out of a total of 636. The data are summarised in Table 3.23. Table 3.23 Respondents’ Employment/Unemployment Status Status Frequency Percentage of Total Employed 219 35% Unemployed 407 65% Of which: Looking for First Job 137 22% Left Voluntarily 221 35% Total Frictional 358 57% Non-Frictional 49 8% 626 100% Total The data indicate a somewhat surprising result. Of the 626 people who answered whether they were employed or unemployed, 57% were either looking for their first job or had left work voluntarily. These people can, in general, be classified as frictionally unemployed, although we would need to do a more detailed study to establish this with more certainty. Only 8% of the total respondents to question 12 appear to be non-frictionally unemployed. That is, they are cyclically or structurally unemployed. Interestingly, when those who were currently working were asked if they would like to change their current job, 43 people (6.8%) said no (question 17), which begs the question of why they were registered job seekers and attended the questionnaire session. Somewhat contradictory indications are given in response to question 19, which concerns the time that respondents have been unemployed. 74% of the unemployed had been without a job for more than six months. This percentage was fairly evenly distributed across educational qualifications with the exception of those with Form 6 education for whom the share of those who were unemployed for more than six months was only 60%. 39 Chapter 3 Research Findings The relatively long time period for young people to be unemployed goes against what we would expect with frictional unemployment. When people resign from their jobs, especially with no formal unemployment benefit scheme, we would expect them to be sure that they could get another job fairly quickly. This does not appear to be the case here. A definitive explanation would involve in-depth interviews with those involved but we can infer that those involved have family support so that they do not necessarily need the money. In other words, their reservation wage may be above the going rate for the jobs for which they are qualified. A person’s reservation wage is the minimum wage that they are prepared to work for. It is determined by a variety of factors such as their (or their family’s) wealth, the time they have been unemployed, the number of job offers they have received the nature of work involved and the cost of going to work, in terms of transportation, and clothes. Question 21 concerns the actions respondents had taken in order to find a job. This question used the method of stating a range of actions and asking respondents to answer yes or no. Only three actions out of a possible ten had a greater proportion of “yes” answers than “no” answers: “Regularly looked through job advertisements” (91%), “Asked friends, relatives and others” (82%), and “Registered with the Labour Department” (77%). Interestingly, 23% of the respondents said they had not registered with the Labour Department, which seems particularly strange since they are listed as registered job seekers. When asked why, in their opinion, they had not been successful in finding a job, 21% of respondents strongly agreed that they did not like the job they were offered, reinforcing the view that aspirations play a critical role in citizen and PR unemployment. However, the top four reasons are because there are no appropriate jobs available (74%); because employers prefer foreign workers (73%); because the competition for jobs is too fierce (67%); and because of a lack of relevant work skills (52%). In summary, this section has identified that non-frictional unemployment, which is the most worrying kind, is not a major factor among the sample population of registered job seekers. This is to be expected. With such a large number of temporary resident workers in the country, the number of jobs in Brunei is far greater than the local labour force. The problem of unemployment is more likely to be one of finding an appropriate job for the job seeker’s aspirations. 40 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.2.7 Underemployment and Inadequate Employment in Brunei Underemployment and inadequate employment as defined by the ILO is described in Section 3.2.3. The issue of inadequate employment is considered in question 16. Although only 219 people answered that they were working in question 15,252 people responded to question 16 which asked those who were currently working whether their job matched their qualifications. 49% of respondents said their job did match their qualifications but a substantial 98 people (39%) said their job was below their qualifications. Regarding the education of these respondents, 31% of those with only up to Form 3 qualifications, who were working, said their job was below their qualifications. As is to be expected, as the level of education increases so does the likelihood of people working in jobs that they consider to be below their qualifications. In our sample, 57% of those with VTE qualifications and 71% of those with Form 6 education said they were working in jobs that were below their qualifications. In question 18, those respondents who were currently working and wanted to change their job were asked to answer yes or no to a list of possible reasons for wanting to change. Although many people answered “yes” to the statement that they wanted to change because the job was below or not relevant to their qualifications, the only answers for which the “yes” response exceeded the “no” response were: “No job security” (81% said yes) and “Low pay, lack of financial incentives” (84% said yes). This reinforces the earlier findings that the most common reason for people actually leaving their jobs is because of low pay as discussed in the previous section. 3.2.8 Future Labour Force Projections Irrespective of the nature of unemployment at the time of the survey, and whether the unemployed could replace temporary residents in certain occupations, the age characteristics of the Bruneian population highlight the need for growth of jobs in the economy. Table 3.24 is a comparison of citizens and permanent residents in the labour force in 2001 and our projection for 2011. 41 Chapter 3 Research Findings Table 3.24 Labour Force Projections 2001-2011, Brunei Citizens and Permanent Residents Only 2001 2011 Age Population Labour Force Participation Rate Age Population Labour Force Participation Rate 5-14 60285 n/a n/a 15-24 47017 18662 39.69% 15-24 60285 23928 39.69% 25-34 36419 29097 79.90% 25-34 47017 37564 79.90% 35-44 31289 23917 76.44% 35-44 36419 27838 76.44% 45-54 20579 14170 68.86% 45-54 31289 21337 68.19% 55-64 9892 2667 26.96% 55-64 20579 5548 26.96% Total 145196 88513 Total 195589 116216 Source: JPKE 2004, Tables 5.2(a) and 8.3(f) and authors’ calculations The four columns on the left of Table 3.24 show actual population and labour force in 2001 from the 2001 Census. From these figures, age specific participation rates are calculated. These figures show that in 2001, nearly 40% of the 15-24 age group population were in the labour force, which increased to nearly 80% for the 25-34 age group. The participation rate then declined so that by the 55-64 age group only approximately 27% of the population was in the labour force. Although participation rates may change over time, and the citizen and PR population may change because of migration and premature death, for illustrative purposes it is reasonable to maintain these participation rates in order to estimate the labour force in 2011. The four columns on the right of Table 3.24 reflect the anticipated situation in 2011 and show each age group population ten years older. The key factor for Brunei is that in 2001, there were more than 60,000 people in the 5-14 age group and less than 10,000 people in the 55-64 age group. In 2011, these 60,000 people will be in the 15-24 age group and some will have entered the labour force while less than 3,000 people aged 55-64 in 2001 are likely to have left the labour force. This simple calculation indicates that the labour force in 2011 is likely to be approximately 28,000 greater than it was in 2001 and, unless birth rates change substantially, this pattern is likely to continue in the future highlighting the need for job creation. 42 Chapter 3 Research Findings 3.2.9 Summary of Unemployment Characteristics This report has investigated unemployment in Brunei by administering a questionnaire to a sample population of job seekers who have registered with the Labour department. As per the terms of reference of the project, it has not attempted to measure unemployment. This would have to be done by a labour force survey. Instead the primary aims of the project have been to ascertain the ages, education and attitude of the job seekers; to examine the nature of, and reasons for, unemployment within the sample; and to suggest policies to address perceived problems. Unemployment in Brunei is generally limited to the young. 60% of respondents were under the age of 24. Moreover, within our sample, the majority of respondents were not highly educated. Out of the 636 respondents only 2.4% were graduates and 80% had only up to Form 5 education. This is partly because of the nature of the jobs likely to be available from the Labour Department. Graduates may prefer to try to find jobs independently, so in this regard the sample population does not truly represent the unemployed in Brunei. Regarding the nature of unemployment, the questionnaire has produced contradictory pictures of the unemployed. On one hand, certain responses point to a picture of mostly frictional unemployment where respondents are merely in the process of changing jobs and looking for better pay and conditions, as opposed to being unable to find work at all. Responses to support this view are, first of all, that not all the job seekers are unemployed. In fact, 35% were employed, according to the ILO definition. Moreover, of those who were unemployed, only approximately 185 appeared to have involuntarily lost their jobs. A large percentage responded that they had voluntarily left their jobs with the most common reasons being low pay and a lack of job security. This indicates that a large percentage of the respondents was frictionally unemployed, a less serious type of unemployment than structural unemployment. However, with frictional unemployment we would not normally expect long periods of unemployment, but in our sample 74% of respondents had been unemployed for more than 6 months. Moreover, as shown in Table 3.18, the vast majority of respondents (95%) stated that they were willing to take up any job so that they were no longer unemployed, 83% said they would take a job that was below their salary expectations, 88% said they would take a job that was below their qualifications and 96% said they did not mind working in the private sector. These responses indicate a strong desire to work from which it could be inferred that suitable jobs were not available. 43 Chapter 3 Research Findings An important question is whether temporary residents are holding jobs that could be done by the local unemployed. The most sought after jobs by the survey respondents were clerical and security work. At the time of the 2001 census, there were 67,716 temporary residents working in Brunei3, but less than 3% of temporary residents were working in clerical positions in the private sector and too few to report (to one decimal place) were working in clerical positions in the public sector. 46% of temporary residents were employed in “elementary occupations” followed by 24% who worked as craft and related trades workers. As for industry classification, in 2004, 31% of temporary residents worked in construction; 25% worked in “other mining, quarrying and manufacturing”, and 13% worked in wholesale and retail trade (JPKE 2005). So there seems to be a mismatch between the types of jobs wanted by unemployed locals and the jobs held by temporary residents. A further issue concerns wages. Despite 79% of respondents saying they would take a job that was below their salary expectations, 19.5% of the responses given for stopping work (question 14) and 20.1% of the responses given for changing a current job (question 18) were low wages. And wages can be very low in elementary occupations. For example, according to Labour Department figures (JPKE 2005 p.65) a labourer earned $126 per week in 2004, although tradespeople such as electricians earned considerably more at $360 per week. Another important point concerns employers’ attitudes to hiring locals. From question 22, the second most common answer as to why the respondents though they had been unsuccessful in finding work, was because employers preferred to employ foreigners. From the dialogue between the researchers and employers conducted at the same time as the survey, employers pointed out the following: • It is a challenge for the private sector to attract suitable candidates because Government employment is still the first choice for many locals; • Training staff is expensive and often, after undergoing training, locals will leave a private sector firm to work for Government; this made private companies reluctant to employ untrained locals and invest in their development; • Foreigners were perceived as more prepared to work flexible hours and to be more reliable than locals. 3 This figure is estimated to have increased to 76,678 (Labour Department 2004 in JPKE 2005 p.59) 44 Chapter 4. International Labour Organisation Obligations Brunei became a member of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in January 2007, becoming the 180th member. As of June 2008, there are now a total of 182 member countries. The ILO is a United Nations agency that brings together governments, employers and workers from its member countries in order to promote “decent work throughout the world” (www.ilo.org). The ILO makes recommendations and adopts conventions and declarations that concern the working environment, employment, social security, social policy and related human rights. These issues can generally be considered as forming agreed International Labour Standards (ILS). Countries that belong to the ILO may be signatories to certain conventions, which are non-binding, or may have ratified conventions, in which case the country has consented to be bound by the convention (see United Nations Treaty Collection (http://untreaty.un.org/English/guide.asp#glossary). Brunei has recently ratified the ILO Convention 182 on Worst Forms of Child Labour with the ratification documents being presented by the Minister of Home Affairs, at the 97th International Labour Conference held in Geneva in June 2008. This convention is one of eight core Conventions, which concern four general areas: forced labour, freedom of association, discrimination and child labour. Before this ratification, Brunei was one of only five states that had not ratified any of the core Conventions. Note that as of June 2008, the United States has only ratified two of the core conventions, Singapore and Malaysia have both ratified 45 Chapter 4 International Labour Organisation Obligations five core Conventions and 127 States have ratified all eight core Conventions (see ILO http://webfusion.ilo.org/public/db/standards/normes/appl/appl-ratif8conv.cfm?Lang=EN). Brunei is addressing child labour and other labour related issues under new labour laws, the Employment Order and Workplace Safety and Health Order. As a member of the ILO, Brunei will be obliged to continue to address issues concerning the protection and safety of workers, for example in the areas of employer abuse, discrimination, minimum wage and working conditions. More research is required in this area. There are many conventions in addition to the eight fundamental ones. For example, Singapore has ratified 24 conventions of which 20 are in force. These concern such matters as workmen’s compensation, equal remuneration, the right to organise and collective bargaining. Malaysia has ratified 15 conventions of which 14 are in force. At the other extreme, France has ratified 123 conventions of which 101 are in force. In addition to conventions that concern very specific employment issues, an example of a more general convention is Convention 168 Employment Promotion and Protection against Unemployment Convention, 1988. This concerns countries’ obligations to design specific policies to promote “full, productive and freely chosen employment by all appropriate means” (ILO C168 Article 7) and the provision of unemployment benefits, specified as specific shares of previous earnings, for the unemployed. The ILO has two supervisory bodies - the Committee of Experts on the Application of Conventions and Recommendations and the Conference Committee on the Application of Standards. These bodies are responsible for examining the application of international labour standards in ILO member States. Representation and complaint procedures can also be initiated against states that fail to comply with conventions they have ratified. A special procedure - the Committee on Freedom of Association - reviews complaints concerning violations of freedom of association, whether or not a member State has ratified the relevant conventions. 46 Chapter 5. Recommendations & Conclusions With nearly 77,000 foreign workers in Brunei in 2004, and less than 8,000 job seekers as of March 2008, a free market economist would argue that there is not a serious unemployment problem. From this perspective, locals simply need to change their attitudes in order to find work. They can either compete with foreigners in certain occupations or the Labour Department can restrict temporary resident work permits in certain categories to make jobs available to locals. The latter option would not be popular with firms in Brunei because it would force them to employ locals when indications are that, in many cases, they prefer foreigners. If locals do not accept available jobs, it is because their reservation wage (the minimum wage that will entice them to work, rather than not work) is above the going salary for the jobs for which they are qualified. For this to be the case, the unemployed must have family support. Moreover, in Brunei with its subsidised rice, sugar, petrol, gas, education and healthcare, the necessity to work for low wages is less pressing than in some other countries. In other words, these welfare schemes, while helping to alleviate poverty, might actually result in longer periods of unemployment for some sections of the community. How long this situation can continue is unclear, because it is not in the interests of the country to have older people who are not very highly educated, with limited skills and with no, or limited, work experience. One area where it appears that Brunei is not utilising its labour resources fully is in the technical trades such as electrician, plumber, carpenter, bricklayer etc. Tradespeople can work for a large employer, be self-employed or run their own small company. In most industrialised countries, only 47 Chapter 5 Recommendations & Conclusions licensed tradespeople are legally allowed to work in these professions and a recognised qualification is required. This usually involves vocational training combined with an apprenticeship, and can take 2-4 years to achieve a basic qualification (see for example the Northwest Territories, Canada, http://www.ece.gov.nt.ca/divisions/apprenticeship/Apprenticeship/App_1.htm. These trades are an important sector of SMEs in many developed economies. In the UK, apprenticeships have been replaced with a Level 3 National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) in plumbing and other trades, and work experience with a qualified tradesman is the norm. NVQs are work-related, competence-based qualifications, based on national occupational standards. In 2002, the Guardian newspaper reported that after four years of training, a qualified plumber will start on £20,000 per annum at a medium-sized firm, with average earnings for an experienced plumber of approximately £30,000 per annum. Self-employed plumbers can charge up to £90 per hour (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2002/nov/03/wageslaves.careers). Obviously, these figures reflect costs in the UK economy, but the situation is the same in Australia where many electricians earn more than university graduates and, indeed, university lecturers (see Electrical Group Training http://www.egt.net.au/electrical-apprentice-benefits.php). These high salaries are admittedly partly the result of the current resource boom in Australia but are also because the training required limits the number of tradespeople available for work (limited supply) and the regulatory requirement that only licensed tradespeople can operate (high demand). Tradespeople can make a substantial contribution to the economy both through their direct output and also through their demand for services, such as accounting, computing, advertising, and as part of the supply chain for larger projects. When a large project is initiated, both direct and secondary jobs are created. The secondary jobs are termed indirect and induced. ‘Indirect jobs’ are those created in other sectors of the economy to supply inputs to the main project. It is here that SMEs based on trades can make a large contribution to the economy. ‘Induced jobs’ are those created in other industries to cater for the consumer spending of the employees of both the direct and indirect jobs. It follows that when the supply chain is within a particular country or region, and when consumer spending is also primarily within that country, rather than overseas, the multiplier effects will be substantial. In Brunei, the situation is very different. Although there is vocational training for locals, the status of the trades is not high. Unlicensed and it seems unskilled foreign workers are allowed to operate freely. Wages are low and some of these wages are repatriated to home countries rather than being spent in Brunei. At the time of the 2001 Census, there were more than 16,000 temporary residents 48 Chapter 5 Recommendations & Conclusions working in the trades sector, although approximately 8,000 of these were in the textile industry, which has subsequently contracted substantially. This has several implications for the economy. These temporary residents are unlikely to start up SMEs as they are generally on short-term contracts. This means that the small engineering firms and other related industries that can increase the multiplier effects of larger projects do not exist in the numbers they could. The promotion of skilled and semi-skilled trades as a career path for Bruneians would make a positive impact on the economy. There is enough demand to absorb unemployed locals; SME startups would increase as would multiplier effects. What would be required are regulations requiring tradespeople to be licensed and trained. Foreigners could still be allowed as long as they met these requirements. Wages would then increase (because of the restricted number of qualified workers) as would status. The impact on the economy would be a one-off increase in inflation as the higher payments for trade-related services worked its way through the economy. But inflation is a price that will have to be paid if the economy is to move to a more market oriented system with fewer subsidies and less Government involvement. At the current time, there are minimum requirements of experience and qualifications required by the Ministry of Development for architects and engineers (see Ministry of Development http://mod.gov.bn/cpru_web/PBD7_QP. htm), and it is understood that there have been minimum standards imposed for tradespeople for the construction of Government buildings, but the authors are not aware of a consistent licensing requirement for tradespeople in general. The imposition of minimum standards of education and training for skilled tradespeople negates the need for the restriction of foreign workers. Although replacing foreign workers with locals in certain professions may be a short-term cure for the kind of unemployment identified in our survey, it is unlikely to be a long-term solution. As shown in Section 3.2.8, the Bruneian labour force is growing substantially over time as the young people entering far exceed those older people leaving the labour force. What is required in the longterm is the creation of more jobs through economic growth and diversification. Moreover, it may be that in certain categories, foreign labour, particularly in areas involving entrepreneurship and innovation, actually promotes economic growth, and some countries, such as Canada, Australia and notably Singapore, are actively trying to attract foreign labour. Although this report has stressed the potential for local employment in semi-skilled and skilled trades, agriculture is another potential area for greater local employment. The twin policy initiatives of poverty alleviation and food security provide a promising environment for job creation and programmes to substantially increase the country’s rice production could possibly take job creation for locals into consideration in the design of policies and incentives. 49 Chapter 5 Recommendations & Conclusions In view of the preparation skills and training requested by our sample and their preferred career, one major recommendation that we could make is a simple one: provide more ICT and clerical/ lower white collar related skills and training. Further, there is a need to increase the job searching skills of our sample in terms of CV preparation, interview preparation and job search skills and activities. This alone should cover the training needs of the majority of our sample who are mainly school leavers looking for clerical lower white collar types of jobs. We have discussed at length that the above recommendation can, however, only solve our unemployment situation in the short run. There is a limit as to how many clerical and white collar jobs that can be created, either in the public or private sector, to cater for our growing numbers of school leavers and youth population. What we have here is therefore a slight mismatch of skills in terms of desired career, and it has been shown that in terms of attitudinal segmentation, our sample is largely motivated but unfortunately substantially limited, in that they are largely only motivated in terms of their desired limited career choice within the clerical and white collar sector. More seriously then, we are faced with a significant mismatch of career expectations and available employment. In the longer run therefore, there is a important need for employment policy to work on the level of limitation attitudes of our school leavers. They must be guided towards other types of jobs, particularly within the manual, semi skilled and skilled professions, which are heavily dominated by foreign labour - meaning there are plenty of jobs in this latter sector for our school leavers. Accordingly, appropriate skills and training, i.e. Vocational Technical Education, needs to be significantly expanded to cater for the growing numbers of school leavers who basically do not possess any vocational skills of substance. In view of our discussion of the ‘reservation wage’, the need for the Government to ensure an adequate quality of life and standard of living which can meet the expectations of Bruneian school leavers, our final recommendation is that there is a serious need for a review of the salary structure of manual and semi-skilled and skilled professions. 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