Financial Market Analysis Unit
Treasury Department
Member of
DAILY REPORT
April 4, 2017
FX RATES
Currency
Value
EUR/RSD
USD/RSD
CHF/RSD
GBP/RSD
123.8060
115.9775
115.8365
144.6163
EUR mn
EUR/RSD
125
45
40
124
FX rates on domestic market
Previous
Change
123.8850
115.9646
115.8453
145.4903
YTD
-0.06%
0.01%
-0.01%
-0.60%
-0.27%
0.99%
-0.86%
-0.56%
Source: NBS
35
123
30
122
25
121
20
15
120
10
119
5
118
0
Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 13,3 mio EUR at
average rate 123, 8262.
Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Source: NBS
International markets
Currency
Value
Previous
Change
YTD
EUR/USD
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
1.0670
1.0686
0.8545
1.2486
110.90
1.0652
1.0690
0.8485
1.2550
111.39
0.17%
-0.04%
0.70%
-0.51%
-0.44%
-1.45%
0.33%
-1.18%
5.18%
-0.11%
EUR/USD
1.12
1.1
1.08
1.06
Source: Bloomberg
1.04
1.02
Economic indicators
Country/
Time
Region
16:00
USA
Indicator
Period
Durable good orders
FEB
Previous
Projection
1.70%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
MONEY MARKET
National Bank of Serbia Interest rates
Value
Key policy rate
Next decision
Deposit facility
Lending facility
Repo operations (1 week)
RSD Interest rates
4.00%
10
11.4.2017
9
2.50%
5.50%
2.98%
NBS key rate
8
Beonia
7
Belibor 3M
6
Source: NBS
5
Interbank interest rates - Serbia
BEONIA
BELIBOR1M
BELIBOR3M
BELIBOR 6M
4
Value
Previous
Change
2.79%
3.34%
3.51%
3.70%
2.73%
3.35%
3.52%
3.71%
0.06
-0.01
-0.01
-0.01
Source: Reuters
3
2
Source: NBS
Major interest rates
Eurozone (ECB)
US (Fed)
United Kingdom (BOE)
Switzerland (SNB)
Value
Next decision
0.00%
1.00%
0.25%
-0.75%
27.4.2017
3.5.2017
EUR Interest rates
0.3
ECB main rate
Euribor 3M
0.2
0.1
0
Source: Bloomberg
-0.1
Interbank Interest rates - Europe
EONIA
EURIBOR1M
EURIBOR3M
EURIBOR6M
-0.2
3.4.2017
31.3.2017
Change (bps)
-0.353%
-0.372%
-0.330%
-0.243%
-0.355%
-0.373%
-0.329%
-0.241%
0.002
0.001
-0.001
-0.002
Source: Bloomberg, EBF
-0.3
-0.4
Sources: ECB, EBF
Note: Values are with 2 days delay
Libor Interest rates
Libor 1M (USD)
Libor 3M (USD)
Libor 6M (USD)
Libor 1M (CHF)
Libor 3M (CHF)
Libor 6M (CHF)
Sources: ICE, Bloomberg
Interest rate Swap
Value
Previous
Change
0.983%
1.150%
1.426%
-0.777%
-0.730%
-0.664%
0.983%
1.150%
1.423%
-0.779%
-0.730%
-0.664%
0.001
0.000
0.003
0.002
0.000
0.000
EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING
EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING
EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING
USD ISDA 3Y FIXING
USD ISDA 5Y FIXING
USD ISDA 10Y FIXING
Sources: IBA, Bloomberg
Value
Previous
Change
-0.030%
0.197%
0.777%
1.810%
2.061%
2.401%
-0.037%
0.186%
0.771%
1.794%
2.055%
2.384%
0.007
0.011
0.006
0.016
0.006
0.017
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
FIXED INCOME
Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales 2013present
14.0
RSD Government securities
Maturity
Date
Value
Previous
3 month
6 month
53 week
2 year
3 year
5 year
7 year
10 year
04.02.2016
02.03.2017
07.02.2017
21.03.2017
03.04.2017
20.10.2015
23.02.2017
21.10.2014
2.75%
2.64%
3.48%
4.65%
5.00%
6.50%
5.60%
12.99%
2.79%
2.65%
3.49%
4.74%
4.74%
10.80%
5.64%
11.02.2016
24 month amortizing
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
NBS key
NBS key rate
+ 0.57%
rate + 0.45%
3y
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Scheduled auctions for this week
Instrument
Date
3y T-bonds
04.03.2017.
3m
53w
6m
NBS key rate
5y
10y
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
JP Morgan EMBI Serbia
bps
Currency
Volume
RSD
15,000,000,000
350
330
310
290
270
250
EUR government securities
230
Maturity
Date
Value
Previous
210
53 week
2 year
3 year
5 year
10 year
20.03.2017
14.02.2017
22.03.2017
21.02.2017
15.03.2017.
0.74%
1.05%
1.89%
2.69%
4.00%
0.78%
1.07%
1.89%
2.90%
4.20%
190
Moody's
Ba3
S&P
BB-
Fitch
BB-
Stable
Positive
Stable
17.3.2017
16.12.2016
16.12.2016
170
150
Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa
Serbian Eurobond yields (USD)
Serbia Credit rating
Outlook
Latest update
Serbia 5y 2017
Serbia 5y 2018
Serbia 7y 2020
Serbia 10y 2021
Serbia 20y 2024
Source: Bloomberg
Value
Previous
UST spread
1.883%
2.565%
3.470%
3.762%
6.484%
1.940%
2.586%
3.472%
3.760%
6.523%
1.883%
1.377%
2.053%
2.108%
Source: Bloomberg
Serbian 10-year Eurobond 2021
118
Price
5
Yield (right axis)
4.8
117
4.6
116
4.4
115
4.2
114
4
113
3.8
112
3.6
111
3.4
Source: Bloomberg
110
mar.17
feb.17
jan.17
dec.16
nov.16
okt.16
sep.16
avg.16
jul.16
jun.16
maj.16
apr.16
3.2
Source: Bloomberg
2
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
EQUITIES
SERBIA
Belex 15
Belex line
Turnover
Value
Value from the previous day
Change (%)
Change YTD
730.07
1,605.98
15,685,513 Din.
126,613 €
732.51
1,603.70
64,420,528 Din.
519,655 €
-0.33%
0.14%
-75.65%
-75.64%
9.45%
19.42%
Ratios
Belex15
P/B
0,86
Source: Beogradska berza
P/E
14,03
Belex line
BELEX15
1,800
800
750
1,600
700
1,400
650
600
1,200
550
500
apr.15
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
1,000
apr.15
apr.17
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.17
Daily change of Belex 15 members
0.81%
-0.46%
-0.30%
-0.27%
AERO
KMBN
JESV
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
SJPT
TGAS
FITO
ALFA
-0.80%
-2.17%
MTLC
NIIS
ENHL
The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day
Daily
change
Weekly
change
P/BV
P/E
ROE
Market capitalization
ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO ENHL
1,501
4,698,130
0.76%
2.65%
1.95
395.58
0.53
16,407,869,292 Din.
BUDUCNOST AD BACKA PALANKA
BDBP
1,500
3,000,000
0.00%
0.00%
1.11
85.00
1.31
612,439,500 Din.
IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO
IMPL
3,420
1,559,520
-2.29%
-1.67%
1.18
12.14
10.27
3,222,621,540 Din.
120,827,756,400 Din.
Company
NIS AD NOVI SAD
Ticker
NIIS
Price RSD
Turnover
RSD
741
1,324,908
-0.79%
-0.79%
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A
MILAN BLAGOJEVI AD SMEDERE
MBLS
4,880
732,000
-24.20%
-24.20%
1.57
40.84
4.76
614,880,000 Din.
JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD
JESV
4,500
405,000
-0.26%
7.11%
0.62
4.66
11.62
1,371,235,500 Din.
1,070,141,040 Din.
LASTA AD BEOGRAD
LSTA
699
290,784
6.83%
4.01%
0.67
#N/A N/A
-18.27
DUNAV OSIGURANJE AD
DNOS
1,480
162,800
6.41%
6.41%
0.04
3.51
0.16
6,254,659,080 Din.
MESSER TEHNOGAS AD
TGAS
12,650
126,500
0.00%
-8.10%
1.09
24.93
4.23
13,113,723,700 Din.
AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO AERO
1,294
99,638
-0.42%
-1.12%
1.78
12.98
14.52
44,370,418,900 Din.
VODOPRIVREDA AD POZAREVAC
VDPO
1,600
70,400
6.35%
6.35%
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A
#N/A N/A
32,451,200 Din.
KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA KMBN
1,650
69,300
-0.28%
-6.63%
0.40
6.66
6.61
27,749,627,400 Din.
Source: Belex
Trade gap widens 19.8% in US dollars, 23.7% in euros year-on-year in January-February - Serbia’s foreign trade deficit expanded 19.8% year-on-year to USD 684.6 million in JanuaryFebruary, according to a news release from the Statistics Office. Expressed in euros, the deficit was up 23.7% at EUR 642 million. In US dollars, exports rose 4.9% year-on-year to USD
2.21 billion in January-February, as imports increased 8.1% to nearly USD 2.9 billion, the Statistics Office said. In euros, exports increased 8.5% to EUR 2.08 billion and imports went up
11.7% to EUR 2.72 billion. In dollars, intermediary products accounted for 55.2% of all exports and 54.3% of all imports, consumer goods 34.9% of exports and 18.2% of imports, and
equipment 9.9% of exports and 10.2% of imports. The biggest chunk of Serbia’s exports went to Italy, USD 350.8 million, Germany, USD 297.3 million, Bosnia-Herzegovina, USD 162
million, Russia, USD 132.5 million, and Romania, USD 90.9 million. At the same time, most of Serbia’s imports came from Germany, USD 367.5 million, Italy, USD 283 million, China, USD
252.2 million, Russia, USD 229.9 million, and Hungary, USD 132.7 million. The EU accounted for as much as 65.7% of Serbia’s overall foreign trade. At the same time, Serbia recorded a
trade surplus of USD 221.8 million with CEFTA signatories. (Source: Executive Newsletter)
Industrial production declines 1.7% year-on-year in February - Serbia’s industrial production in February was down 1.7% year-on-year and 8.2% against the 2016 average, according to
a news release from the Statistics Office. In January-February, industrial output rose 0.7% year-on-year. Compared with February 2016, manufacturing grew 2.5%, while mining fell 1.4%.
Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply dropped 12.8%. The output of capital goods increased 7.3%, durable consumer goods 4.9%, and intermediate goods excluding energy
4.9%, while the production of energy decreased 10.4%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production in February was up 1.7% month-on-month and 0.7% against the 2016 average.
In February, manufacturing increased by a seasonally adjusted 2.1% month-on-month and 4.3% against the 2016 average. (Source: Executive Newsletter)
Belgrade stock indexes snap 8-week winning streak - The Belgrade Stock Exchange’s (BSE) blue-chip index BELEX15 ended 1.82% lower at 732.51 points last week, and composite
index BELEXline fell 1.23% to 1,603.70 points, after eight straight weeks of gains for both. Overall trading totaled RSD 344.07 million, RSD 203.68 million of which was stock trading and
almost RSD 126.3 million bond trading. The multilateral trading facility registered stock trading worth RSD 14.09 million. On the regulated market, Tigar was the biggest advancer,
skyrocketing 30% to RSD 78. Also trading in positive territory, Halkbank rallied 12.50% to RSD 9,000 and Jubmes Banka rose 10% to RSD 5,500. TE-TO fell the most, nosediving 26.78%
to RSD 1,900. Also in the red, Sojaprotein tumbled 9.17% to RSD 545 and Messer Tehnogas sank 8.99% to RSD 12,650. Halkbank had the largest trade value, of RSD 29.85 million,
ahead of Komercijalna Banka’s common stock, with almost RSD 5.12 million, and Messer Tehnogas, with RSD 4.24 million. (Source: Executive Newsletter)
3
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
REGION
Index
Country/Region
Value
Value from the
previous day
Crobex
SBITOP
SOFIX
BET
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
Croatia
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Romania
Balkans
2,035.31
775.41
633.13
8,155.65
439.73
1,989.27
774.70
633.99
8,069.34
438.07
Change
(%)
Change YTD (%)
2.03%
8.06%
7.96%
15.11%
5.80%
2.31%
0.09%
-0.14%
1.07%
0.38%
Source: Bloomberg
CROBEX
2,300
SBITOP
850
2,200
800
2,100
2,000
750
crobex
1,900
sbi20
700
1,800
1,700
650
1,600
600
1,500
apr.15
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.15
apr.17
SOFIX
700
650
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.17
BET
8,000
sofix
600
bet-c
7,500
550
7,000
500
6,500
450
6,000
400
apr.15
jul.15
8,500
5,500
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.17
apr.15
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
apr.17
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
600
dj balkan
500
400
300
apr.15
jun.15
avg.15
okt.15
dec.15
feb.16
apr.16
jun.16
avg.16
okt.16
dec.16
feb.17
apr.17
Romania's jobless rate flat at 5.4% in February - Romania's unemployment rate stayed flat at 5.4% in February, the national statistics office (INS) said on Monday. Compared to February
2016, the jobless rate was 0.9 percentage points lower, the office said in a statement. The number of unemployed in Romania was 489,000 in February, up from 488,000 in January but
below the 568,000 registered in February 2016, INS said in a statement. The jobless rate among women was 5.0% in February versus 5.7% among men. Romania's workforce is estimated
at about 9.0 million out of a population of some 20.1 million. (Source: Bloomberg, SeeNews)
Croatia's government ready to take charge of Agrokor restructuring - The Croatian government is ready take charge of the restructuring of heavily indebted concern Agrokor, prime
minister Andrej Plenkovic said on Monday. Pursuant to the provisions of a future law drafted to protect the country's economic and financial systems from the impact of large corporate
failures, the government is ready to take responsibility for the sustainable restructuring of Agrokor, Plenkovic said at a press conference following a meeting with the company's suppliers.
He explained that the government is willing to support a plan that will stabilize the heavily indebted concern if it takes into account the interests of all stakeholders including the suppliers, or
else the government will take control. "We would gladly support an agreement that will enable a successful restructuring and ensure new funds that would give way to regular operations
and the settlement of at least a part of the accumulated debt to suppliers," Plenkovic said. The prime minister declined to comment the standstill agreement, which was signed over the
weekend by four of the largest Croatian banks, Russia's VTB and Sberbank, and representatives of Agrokor. (Source: Bloomberg, SeeNews)
4
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
WORLD
Index
Country/Region
Value
Value from the
previous day
Change (%)
Change YTD (%)
Dow Jones Industrial
S&P 500
NASDAQ
DAX
FTSE
Dow Jones Stoxx 600
Nikkei 225
US
US
US
Germany
UK
EU
Japan
20,650.21
2,358.84
5,894.68
12,257.20
7,282.69
379.29
18,983.23
20,663.22
2,362.72
5,911.74
12,312.87
7,322.92
381.14
18,909.26
-0.06%
-0.16%
-0.29%
-0.45%
-0.55%
-0.49%
0.39%
4.49%
5.36%
9.50%
6.76%
1.96%
4.94%
-0.69%
Source: Bloomberg
Dow Jones Industrial
22,000
21,500
21,000
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
18,000
17,500
17,000
16,500
16,000
15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
apr.15
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
dow jones
s&p
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.15
apr.17
NASDAQ Composite
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
apr.15
S&P 500
2,500
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.17
DAX
13,500
12,500
11,500
nasdaq
dax
10,500
9,500
8,500
7,500
6,500
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.15
apr.17
DJ Stoxx 600
440
jun.15
avg.15
okt.15
dec.15
apr.16
jun.16
avg.16
okt.16
dec.16
feb.17
apr.17
Nikkei 225
23,000
420
feb.16
21,000
400
19,000
380
17,000
360
nikkei
340
dj stoxx
\
15,000
320
13,000
300
11,000
280
9,000
260
apr.15
jul.15
okt.15
jan.16
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.15
apr.17
Brent (USD/bbl)
60
jul.15
okt.15
1,350
50
1,300
45
1,250
40
1,200
35
1,150
30
1,100
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.17
Gold
1,400
55
jan.16
\
1,050
25
apr.16
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.16
apr.17
jul.16
okt.16
jan.17
apr.17
Vix Index
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
Mar-17
U.S. Stocks Fall, Led by Automakers; Small-Caps Snap 7-Day Gain - U.S. stocks fell on the first day of the second quarter, with falling bond yields and crude prices weighing on banks
and energy companies. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. slipped after the automakers reported fewer U.S. vehicle sales in March than analysts had projected. The S&P 500 Index
retreated 0.2 percent to 2,358.84 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring losses after the measure approached the 50-day average of 2,341, a level seen by some analysts as providing support. The
benchmark measure last week capped its biggest increase in six weeks, taking its first quarter gain to 5.5 percent, the most since 2015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1
percent to 20,650.21 on Monday. (Source: Bloomberg)
European Stocks End Four-Day Advance as Bank Shares Lead Losses - European stocks declined for the first time in five days, with cyclical shares leading losses, as investors
assessed the longest run of quarterly gains since 2014. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.5 percent at the close, erasing an earlier advance of as much as 0.4 percent. Banks declined the
most, followed by carmakers and insurers. The industry groups were among the best performers in the equity rally that began in November on bets for stronger global growth, and pushed
the Stoxx 600 on Friday to its highest level since December 2015. The Stoxx 600 is entering April with a decline after posting its longest run of quarterly gains since 2014, and investors last
week added the most money to European equity funds in a year. (Source: Bloomberg)
Contact
Financial Market Analysis
Snežana Topalović
Vladimir Gavović
[email protected]
201-1400
201-1263
Broker-Dealer Office
Snežana Spasojević
Dragomir Milin
Biljana Radosavljević
[email protected]
Custody
Vitomir Marić
Olivera Glišić
[email protected]
201-3621
201-3622
201-3610
Dealing
201-1315
201-1314
Darko Karanović
Boban Todorović
Dragan Ignja
201-3624
201-3627
201-3626
201-3625
[email protected]
Disclaimer
This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.
Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team
working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document
may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.
5