Supplement of Biogeosciences, 13, 441–454, 2016
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/441/2016/
doi:10.5194/bg-13-441-2016-supplement
© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
Supplement of
Potential future fisheries yields in shelf waters: a model study of the effects
of climate change and ocean acidification
S. M. van Leeuwen et al.
Correspondence to: S. M. van Leeuwen ([email protected])
The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC-BY 3.0 licence.
Supplementary materials
North Dogger
1700
1680
1660
1640
1620
1600
1580
1560
(e)
Detritivore
biomass [g WW/m2]
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Fish predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(i)
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
(g)
Flagel-lates
PicoPhytoDinoPlankton flagellates
Small Phaeocystis
Diatoms
colonies
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m2 ], depth integrated
Temp.
Low
Medium
High
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
2099
Benthic biomass
Temperature
Low
Medium
change [%]
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND
2009
(f)
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
(d)
2099
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
8
6
4
2
0
−2
−4
−6
−8 Epibenthos
(j)
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Suspension
feeders
Meiobenthos
Benthic
predators
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.70
0.68
0.66
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
0.56
0.54
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0J
Deposit
feeders
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Planktonic fish
food supply [mg C/m3]
(c)
(b)
detritivore growth [-]
Temperature
Low
Medium
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Phytoplankton biomass, depth integrated
change [%]
15
10
5
0
−5
−10
−15 Diatoms
Detritivore predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(a)
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Current
Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J
time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Figure S1: North Dogger: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus lower trophic level ocean
acidification effects (CC + LTL OA): (a) phytoplankton changes [%] (only OA effects), (b)
benthos changes [%] (only OA effects), both 2069-2098 change compared to 1979-2009, (c)
plankton-based fish food, (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008
climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus LTL acidification
effects) signal,(i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that figures (a) and (b) do not include temperature effects: as they are the same
as those in the main paper we present them without climate effects to highlight acidification
effects.
Oyster Grounds
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
Detritivore
biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
1670
1665
1660
1655
1650
1645
1640
1635
(i)
PicoPhytoDinoPlankton flagellates
Small Phaeocystis
Diatoms
colonies
Temp.
Low
Medium
High
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
35
30
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Benthic biomass
Temperature
Low
Medium
change [%]
(h)
2099
40
25
(f)
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
45
(d)
2099
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
Fish predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Flagel-lates
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m2 ], depth integrated
0.4
0.2
0.0
−0.2
−0.4
−0.6
−0.8
−1.0 Epibenthos
(j)
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Suspension
feeders
Meiobenthos
Benthic
predators
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.60
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.50
0.48
0.46
0.44
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5J
Deposit
feeders
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Planktonic fish
food supply [mg C/m3]
(c)
(b)
detritivore growth [-]
Temperature
Low
Medium
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Phytoplankton biomass, depth integrated
change [%]
15
10
5
0
−5
−10
−15
−20 Diatoms
Detritivore predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(a)
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Current
Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J
time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Figure S2: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus lower trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + LTL OA): (a) phytoplankton changes [%] (only OA effects), (b) benthos changes
[%] (only OA effects), both 2069-2098 change compared to 1979-2009, (c) plankton-based fish
food, (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates,
(g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and
the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus LTL acidification effects) signal,(i) predated
biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that figures (a)
and (b) do not include temperature effects: as they are the same as those in the main paper we
present them without climate effects to highlight acidification effects.
Southern Bight (Sean Gas Field)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
Detritivore
biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
840
(i)
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Fish predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Flagel-lates
PicoPhytoDinoPlankton flagellates
Small Phaeocystis
Diatoms
colonies
Planktonic fish food supply [mg C/m2 ], depth integrated
Temp.
Low
Medium
High
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
2099
Benthic biomass
Temperature
Low
Medium
change [%]
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB
2009
(f)
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
(d)
2099
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
0
−1
−2
−3
−4
−5
−6
−7
−8
−9 Epibenthos
(j)
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Suspension
feeders
Meiobenthos
Benthic
predators
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
J
Deposit
feeders
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Planktonic fish
food supply [mg C/m3]
(c)
(b)
detritivore growth [-]
Temperature
Low
Medium
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Phytoplankton biomass, depth integrated
Detritivore predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30 Diatoms
change [%]
(a)
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Current
Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J
time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Figure S3: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus lower trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + LTL OA): (a) phytoplankton changes [%] (only OA effects), (b) benthos changes
[%] (only OA effects), both 2069-2098 change compared to 1979-2009, (c) plankton-based fish
food, (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates,
(g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008 climate scenario) and
the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus LTL acidification effects) signal,(i) predated
biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that figures (a)
and (b) do not include temperature effects: as they are the same as those in the main paper we
present them without climate effects to highlight acidification effects.
North Dogger
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Fish predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(i)
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
(g)
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND
2009
(f)
2099
(j)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0J
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
2039
years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.50
0.48
detritivore growth [-]
Detritivore
biomass [g WW/m2]
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
Detritivore predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(e)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
(d)
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Current
Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J
time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], ND
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Figure S4: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus higher trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + HTL OA): (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008
climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus HTL acidification
effects) signal, (i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that subfigures a, b and c (related to the lower trophic level model) do not change
in this scenario except for climatic effects: figure notation has been kept the same as those
used in other figures for easy comparison.
Oyster Grounds
(i)
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
2099
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
2039
years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
0.55
0.45
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG
2009
2009
0.60
0.40
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
0.50
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2009
(f)
(j)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5J
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
Fish predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
Detritivore predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
Detritivore
biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
detritivore growth [-]
(d)
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Current
Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J
time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], OG
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Figure S5: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus higher trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + HTL OA): (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008
climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus HTL acidification
effects) signal, (i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that subfigures a, b and c (related to the lower trophic level model) do not change
in this scenario except for climatic effects: figure notation has been kept the same as those
used in other figures for easy comparison.
Southern Bight (Sean Gas Field)
(i)
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Fish predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(g)
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2039
years
2069
(h)
2099
Fish predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB
2009
(f)
2099
(j)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8J
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
2039
years
2069
2099
detritivore growth [-]
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
detritivore growth [-]
Detritivore biomass [g WW/m2]
Fish yield [g WW/m2]
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Detritivore
biomass [g WW/m2]
(e)
Fish biomass [g WW/m2]
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
Detritivore predation
mortality [g WW/m2]
(d)
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Averaged annual signal for Fish yield [g WW/m2]
Current
Temp+High
F
M
A
M
J
J
time
A
S
O
N
D
J
Detritivore predation mortality [g WW/m2], SB
Low
Medium
High
Temp.
2009
2039
years
2069
2099
Figure S6: 30-year averaged values, climatic plus higher trophic level ocean acidification effects (CC + HTL OA): (d) fish or pelagic predator biomass, (e) detritivore biomass, (f) detritivore growth rates, (g) fish yield, (h) annual fish yield signal for the current time (1979-2008
climate scenario) and the high impact scenario (2069-2098 climatic plus HTL acidification
effects) signal, (i) predated biomass for pelagic predators and (j) predated biomass for detritivores. Note that subfigures a, b and c (related to the lower trophic level model) do not change
in this scenario except for climatic effects: figure notation has been kept the same as those
used in other figures for easy comparison.