Climate Change and Arctic
Ecology
Heather Moench
(Photo:
http://image03.webshots.com/3/9/23/18/2799923180096
575441nXBmLM_fs.jpg)
Outline
• Arctic Characteristics
• Climate Change Effects:
– Past event
– Responses of Freshwater, Marine, Terrestrial,
Systems
• Examples
– Priorities for Future Research
• Characteristics
• Biomes
–
–
–
–
Taiga
Tundra
Permanent Ice
Marine
http://maps.grida.no/arctic/
The Arctic
http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/research/index.php
Past Changes
Pleistocene-Holocene Transition
• Species interactions and climate change
– Megafauna extinctions
– Massive vegetation shifts
• Steppe to Tundra
• ↑Grazing/disturbance → ↑ graminoids,
↓ mosses
(S.A. Zimov et al,1995)
Freshwater Response
• Increased lake stratification
• Increased lake connectedness and nutrient
loading
– Longer aquatic growing season
– Altered migration patterns of fish
– Increased likelihood of colonization of fishless
lakes
Marine (Ocean) Response
•
•
•
•
•
Unpredictable
Circulation
Migration changes
Benthic – Pelagic shift northward
Ice loss:
– Nutrient, algal loss
– Decline of ice-dependent species
– Shoreline erosion
– Transportation
(Photo: www.weblo.com/asset_images/large/Arctic_Ocean)
Terrestrial Response
• Vegetation and habitat
shifts
– Northward
– Earlier onset
– Water limited
• Thawing permafrost
• Migratory routes and
animals
• Climate vs Species
interactions
(Ims and Fuglei, 2005)
Examples of response to warming
• Caribou reproduction is
light-dependent, while plant
onset is temperaturedependnt.
• Lemming populations are
declining, presumably in
response to changing snow
conditions.
(Post et al, Nov. 2009)
• Lemming response to
varied summer lengths
and predators
• Does not include winter
snow conditions or food
availability
(Gilg et al, 2009)
(Gilg and Yoccoz 2010)
SETAR analysis and climate
events
Nt = Nt–1exp(β0 + β1Xt–1+ Σωt–
dCLIMt–d+ σt)
•Correlation between population
growth rate for elk (cervus) and
reindeer (rangifer) populations and
Northern Hemisphere temperature
anomalies versus the strength of the
local correlation between surface
temperature and the NAO.
•The stronger the NAO-temperature
correlation, the more local
temperatures are affected by the NAO.
•Suggests that climate
change will influence these two
species in opposition,
potentially reflecting different
mechanisms of climate impacts
(Post et al, April 2009)
Future
• Conservation
• Study:
– Winter conditions
– Trophic interactions
– Heterogeneity in responses
– Scale dependence of response
– Extreme events, tipping points, resilience
• Establish baselines
(photo: http://priceofoil.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/arctic-ice.jpg)
References
Gilg O, Sittler B, Hanski I. Climate change and cyclic predator–prey population dynamics in the
high Arctic. Global Change Biology [serial online]. November 2009;15(11):2634-2652.
Accessed April 12, 2010.
Gilg O and Yoccoz N.Explaining Bird Migration. Science Vol.327 276-277 January 2010
Ims R. and Eva Fuglei. Trophic interaction cycles in tundra ecosystems and the impact of climate
change. BioScience, Vol. 55, No. 4 pp. 311-322 (Apr., 2005),
Post E, et al. Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science
325, 1355 September 2009
Post E, Brodie J, Hebblewhite M, Anders A, Maier J, Wilmers C. Global population dynamics and
hot spots of response to climate change . BioScience 489-497 Vol. 59 No. 6 June 2009
Zimov S.A. , Chuprynin V.I., Oreshko A.P., Chapin F.S. Reynolds J.F., Chapin M.C. Steppe-Tundra
transition: a herbivore driven biome shift at the end of the Pleistocene. The American
Naturalist Vol 146 No. 5 765-794 November 1995