North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
Metallic Material Trends For
North American Light Vehicles
Richard A. Schultz & Abey K. Abraham
Ducker Worldwide
www.autosteel.org
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
• Ducker Worldwide has been a leader in the examination of
worldwide material trends in vehicles for nearly 20 years
• In this presentation we will discuss past, present and future
material trends for only North American light vehicles
• We will concentrate on mild steel, high strength steel, ultra
high strength steel, iron and aluminum and the outside
influences that we believe will effect the mix of these
metals in North American light vehicles over the next ten
years
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
This presentation
concentrates on
the 75% of the
average content
that is ferrous
and aluminum
2008 Worldwide Material Content for Light Vehicles
Non Metallics
45.4 Billion lbs.
Flat Steel
86.0 Billion lbs.
21.8%
Other Metals
9.1 Billion lbs.
40.8%
4.2%
Aluminum
16.6 Billion lbs.
7.9%
Iron
16.9 Billion lbs.
7.9%
Other Steel
37.0 Billion lbs.
17.4%
211 Billion Pounds for 66.3 Million vehicles in 2008
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
Light Vehicle Curb Weight Segmented by Material
2009 North America
Other
Metals
3.9%
Non Metallics
22.3%
2009 Rest of the World
Flat Steel
40.5%
Other
Metals
4.3%
Non Metallics
21.3%
Flat Steel
41.2%
Aluminum
7.6%
Aluminum
8.6%
Iron
7.6%
Other
Steel
17.1%
Iron
8.1%
3,755 Pounds
Other
Steel
17.5%
3,059 Pounds
• Even after a great deal of hard work, our vehicles still weigh
700 lbs. more than vehicles in the rest of the world!
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American New Light Vehicle Fuel Economy
(Miles Per Gallon)
+30% 35
MPG
35
+60%
30
23.1
25
20
31.8
25.4
24.9
25.4
26.8
15.3
15
10
5
0
1975
1980
1985
1995
2005
2008
2015
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2020
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Curb Weight
- History and Forecast 4500
4,059
3,846
4000
4,018
3,755
3,532
3,603
Curb Weight Pounds
3500
3,500
3,057
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1976
1986
1996
2002
2004
2009
2015
Select Calendar Years
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2020
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Mix Passenger Car Versus Light Truck
100%
80%
Passenger Car
77%
69%
56%
42%
49%
50%
Light Truck
60%
40%
58%
51%
50%
44%
20%
23%
31%
0%
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2020
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Architecture
- Percent Full Frame -
50
41%
38%
Percent Full Frame
40
30
22%
20%
20
10
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
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The average full
frame (body on
frame) vehicle
weighs over 1,000
pounds more than
the average unibody
vehicle (4,584
pounds versus 3,471
pounds in 2009)
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
Summary of Influencing Trends
•
North American light vehicles will continue to be larger and weigh more than competing
light vehicles in the rest of the world
•
We will continue to increase occupant safety which can add weight
•
We will improve fuel economy over the all time high of 27 mpg in 2008 by 30% to 35
mpg in 2020
•
Weight reduction must contribute at least 25% of this improvement in fuel economy
resulting in an average curb weight of less than 3,500 pounds by 2020
•
The remaining improvement in fuel economy will come from improvements in the
powertrain and other technologies such as aerodynamic drag reduction, low roll
resistance tires and a 42 volt electrical system
•
Vehicle mix will have to be at least 80% unibody and close to 50% light truck and 50%
passenger car
•
The rate of development and adoption for new steels and aluminum for automotive
components will not be significantly compromised by the current economic problems
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
2009 North American Light Vehicle Body and Closure Steel Trends
2007 Full Frame
2007 Unibody
HSS,
28.7%
HSS,
32.9%
HSS,
36.2%
AHSS,
4.9%
MILD,
66.4%
2007 Total
MILD,
51.4%
MILD,
57.8%
AHSS,
9.3%
AHSS,
12.4%
994 Pounds
765 Pounds
851 Pounds
2009 Full Frame
2009 Unibody
2009 Total
HSS,
29.5%
MILD,
62.7%
MILD,
48.0%
AHSS,
7.8%
946 Pounds
HSS,
33.7%
HSS,
35.5%
MILD,
52.6%
AHSS,
16.3%
773 Pounds
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AHSS,
13.7%
790 Pounds
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
2009 AHSS for North American Light Vehicle for Body and Closures
200
176
There are large
differences by OEM
in the amount of Dual
Phase, Martinsitic
and Boron steels used
for body structures
Percent is the AHSS share of
total body/closure weight
168
Pounds Per Vehicle
150
136
108
100
20%
24%
101
21%
18%
68
13.7%
57
12%
38
8.2%
8%
5%
G
H
0
OEM
A
B
C
D Average E
F
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Trend for Flat Rolled UHSS and AHSS
(Net Pounds per Vehicle)
16.5%
CAGR
150.8 lbs.
Net Pounds Per Vehicle
160
140
15%
CAGR
111.3 lbs.
40.1
120
84 lbs.
100
80
25.9
AHSS other than DP
Dual Phase
12.2
60
40
110.7
71.8
85.4
20
0
2005
2007
2009(e)
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content
- History and Forecast -
Pounds Per Vehicle
324
322
318
316
307
285
295
275
300
258
Aluminum in terms of pounds, but not
as a percent of curb weight actually
declined in 2008. 2008 would have been
324 pounds and 2009 could be as high as
329 pounds if full frame and light truck
vehicles should happen to maintain their
2006 share of the market.
265
400
200
100
0
73
75
77
79
81
Calendar Year
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
'01
Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle
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'03
'05
'07
'09F
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
2009 Light Vehicle Material Comparison by Application
High Strength and Advanced High
Strength Steel
Chassis,
Suspension,
Steering & Wheels
23.0%
All Other
1.2%
Body,
Bumper &
Closures
75.8%
548 Pounds Per Vehicle
92% Flat Rolled
Aluminum
Powertrain &
Heat Transfer
68.7%
All Other
5.7%
Body,
Bumper &
Closures
3.0%
324 Pounds Per Vehicle
80% Castings
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Chassis,
Suspension,
Steering &
Wheels
22.6%
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content
- History and Forecast Best Case
394
Most Likely Case
376
355
324
318
322
316
Worst Case
212
258
300
Probability
100
84
120
139
165
200
81
Pounds Per Vehicle
307
400
Best Case
20%
Most Likely
Worst Case
50%
30%
0
73
75
80
85
90
95
'00
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09F
'10F
'11F
'12F
'13F
'14F
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'15F
'16F
'17F
'18F
'19F
'20F
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content as a Percent of Curb Weight
- History and Forecast Based on 3,500
lbs. of curb weight
12%
10.7%
9.8%
10%
8.8%
376
Pounds
7.8%
8%
6.9%
6.1%
6%
4.5%
77
Pounds
Honda was
already over
10% aluminum
weight per
vehicle in 2008
5.1%
3.9%
4%
2.0%
2.1%
2%
Historical
Forecast
0%
Calendar Year
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight
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2010F
2015F
2020F
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
•This forecast includes light vehicle flat rolled AHSS and UHSS content for body structures (BIW),
closures, bumpers, suspensions, subframes, crossmembers, cradles and wheels
NA Light Vehicle Growth Forecast for Flat Rolled Advanced and Ultra High Strength Steels
2009 – 2020 (net pounds per vehicle)
Pounds of Content Per Light Vehicle
450 Pounds
500
10% CAGR
400
138
300
AHSS other than DP
Dual Phase
150.8 Pounds
200
40.1
312
100
110.7
0
2009(e)
2020(f)
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL
ducker.com
North American Light Vehicle Content Growth for Flat Rolled AHSS, Other AHSS and
Aluminum Content for Competing Components
- History and Forecast -
15%
Flat Rolled
AHSS
Trend line only between 2009 and 2020
12.9%
% of Curb Weight
10.6%
11.5%
10%
HSS long product growth will be
offset by HSS sheet losses to
AHSS sheet
Other HSS
& Non Flat
Rolled AHSS
4.0%
5%
4.3%
Aluminum that competes
with flat rolled HSS & AHSS
3.2%
0%
'09
'10
'11
'12
Flat Rolled AHSS
'13
'14
'15
Other HSS & AHSS
'16
'17
Aluminum
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'18
'19
2020
North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
North American Light Vehicle Curb Weight Material Mix
1995
Other Metals
3.7%
All Other Materials
21.7%
2020
Mild Steel*
48.6
Aluminum
6.1%
All Other Materials
24.1%
Mild Steel*
28.0%
Other Metals
4.6%
Aluminum
10.7%
Other Ferrous
Products
HSS & AHSS
11.5%
8.4%
Other Ferrous
Products
8.3%
3,503 Average Curb Weight
56% - CAR | 44% - Light Truck
25 MPG Combined Fuel Economy
HSS & AHSS
24.3%
3,500 Average Curb Weight
50% - CAR | 50% - Light Truck
35 MPG Combined Fuel Economy
* 270 or less MPa tensile strength……………
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
Conclusions:
• To help achieve the 2020 fuel economy goal we need to reduce average curb weight by at
least 7% with little or no change in vehicle footprint
• Seven percent may not appear to be a significant decline in weight, but it will be a
tremendous challenge for the automotive materials community which must also deal with
increased safety requirements, the weight implications of hybrid and electric powertrains
and continued cost pressures on nearly every front
• To obtain a 7% decrease in curb weight, Ducker estimates that we will need to replace
approximately 650 pounds of mild steel, high strength steel and iron with 350 pounds of
dual phase, martensitic, boron and other AHSS, 52 pounds of aluminum, 10 pounds of
magnesium and 25 pounds of polymers and composites. Rubber, glass and other non
metallics will need to decline by at least 40 pounds
• To achieve these goals, the industry must stay on course despite the current state of the
economy. If we don’t continue to add new and improved compositions, perfect forming
technology and develop better joining techniques at acceptable costs the 3,500 pound curb
weight goal will not become a reality in the desired timeframe
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North American
Light Vehicle Metallic Material Trends
Thank you for your attention!
Dick Schultz – Project Consultant
[email protected]
724.940.9018
Abey Abraham – Project Manager
[email protected]
248.644.0086
Ducker Worldwide | www.ducker.com
1250 Maplelawn Drive Troy, MI
248-644-0086
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