快讯：银行业
Wilson Li 李 伟
+86 755 23976870
[email protected]
12 August 2010
M1,M2 growth in line, impact of regulations on trust loans is
limited
GTJA Research 国泰君安研究
Flash Note: Banking Sector
z
M2 and M1 yoy growth rate is continuously slowing and PBoC injected liquidity again. The M2 and M1 yoy
growth rate in July was 17.6% and 22.9% respectively, compared with last month’s 18.5% and 24.6%. The slowing
down is attributed to State Council’s cooling of property market and clearing of LGFV loans, and the high base as well,
which is converging to the average growth rate of 20% between Jan 2006 and July 2010. The gap between M1 and M2
growth rate narrowed to 5.3%. PBoc injected RMB63.8bn through open market operation in July again. O/N Shibor kept
stable after PBoC’s cash injection.
z
RMB loans increased by RMB532.8 bn, in line with expectations. According to the 7.5 trillion RMB loans target, the
monthly average of new added loans in 2H 2010 is about RMB500bn. In view that loan demand in 4Q is usually the
lowest in a year, the loan figure in July is in line with expectation, though it is slightly higher than the average level.
General loans increased by RMB576.4bn as discount bills were further reduced by RMB43.6bn in July, which made the
banks improve their loan structure and achieve higher NIMs. We reiterate the view that RMB7.5tn loans target could be
fully met under the background of evenly distribution of loans.
z
CBRC’s Circular 72/2010 is not likely to crowd out the loan quota in 2H 10 and hurt the earnings, but CAR
would decrease 0.22 pcts. Circular 72/2010 issued by CBRC required the banks to transfer the off-balance-sheet
loans, in the form of wealth management products via co-operation with trust companies, onto their books before the
end of year 2011. As moderately loose monetary policy is not likely to be halted in 2H 10, RMB2.4tn loan quota in the
rest of this year may not be crowded out afterwards. According to our sensitivity analysis, banks’ CAR would decrease
0.22 pcts (see Table 1) and earnings would not significantly change (see Table 2) under the scenario of 50% of the 2tn
RMB off-balance-sheet loans moving to balance sheet, loan quota in 2H 10 not crowding out and 150% NPL coverage
ratio applying to the loans transferred. Thus, the impact of CBRC’s new rule to the banks is limited.
z
Maintain “Outperform” rating for the banking sector due to high earnings visibility. The Chinese banks are
reporting their interim results one after one, which again confirmed their sound fundamentals. We expect that banks’
NIMs and assets quality will keep stable which ensures the high visibility of future earnings. The interim results might be
the short term catalyst to the stock price. We maintain banking sector‘s “Outperform” rating.
z
7 月份 M1，M2 同比增速继续回落，央行继续适度净投放缓解市场资金压力。截至 2010 年 7 月末，M2 同比增长 17.6％，增幅比上月
Banking Sector 银行业
货币增速符合预期，银信合作新规影响有限
末低 0.9 个百分点。M1 同比增长 22.9%，增幅较上月末低 1.7 个百分点。M1 与 M2 增幅“剪刀差”收窄至 5.3 个百分点。随着基数提
高及流动性偏紧，10 年 7 月份 M2 与 M1 同比增速继续回落，接近 06 年以来的平均增速（20%）。央行在 7 月份继续净投放现金 638
亿人民币，同业拆息基本平稳。
z
7 月份人民币贷款增加 5,328 亿元，剔除票据融资后，一般性贷款增加 5,764 亿，符合预期。根据全年 7.5 万亿人民币贷款的信贷目标，
10 年下半年每月平均信贷额度接近 5000 亿人民币。鉴于公司信贷需求在第 4 季度通常较弱，7 月份的信贷投放虽然高于下半年平均水
平，但是符合预期。商业银行于 7 月份进一步压缩低利率的票据融资，7 月份票据融资月环比减少约 436 亿，利于银行调整信贷结构，
提高净息差。我们预期在信贷均衡投放的背景下，全年仍然能够完成 7.5 万亿的信贷目标。
z
预计银监会 72 号文新规不会挤压 10 年的信贷额度，对盈利影响较小，但会使银行业整体资本充足率下降 0.22 个百分点。银监会发布
2010 年 72 号文，要求银行在 2 年内将银信合作贷款从表外放回表内。如果年内适度宽松的货币政策的基调不变，我们预期放回表内的
贷款不会挤压 10 年余下的 2.4 万亿人民币贷款额度。在这种情形下，经过我们测算，假如银信合作贷款规模为 2 万亿，且 50%在 10
年转入表内，则银行业资本充足率将会下滑 0.2 个百分点（见表 1），而在 150%拨备覆盖率的严格要求下，银行业盈利会上升 5 个亿
z
维持银行业“跑赢大市”评级。中资银行陆续公布的中期业绩再次确认了银行业良好的基本面。我们预期下半年净息差及资产质量将会
保持稳定，有利于银行盈利。中期业绩或成为短期催化剂，维持银行业“跑赢大市“评级。
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 1 of 4
Flash Note
（见表 2），基本可以忽略。因此，银监会的银信合作新规对银行的影响有限。
Table 1: Stress to Banks’ capital after moving Bank-Trust Co-operation Loans to
12 August 2010
Balance Sheet
RMB100mn
Total Assets in Banking sector (Q2 10)
Risk Weighting
Weighted Risk Assets
CAR (Q2 10)
a
b
c=a*b
d
872,025
56%
488,334
11.10%
Tier 1+Tier 2 Capital
e=c*d
54,205
Total Bank-Trust Co-operation Program
T
25,000
- Financing Program
LNS=T*80%
20,000
- Investment Program
INV=T*20%
5,000
Assume 50% of trust loans transferred to Balance Sheet in 2H 10
Transfer to Balance Sheet in 2H 10
Total Assets
f=LNS*50%
h=a+f
Assume 100% risk weighting for the transferred loans
Weighted Risk Assets
i=c+f
Tier 1+Tier 2 Capital after transfer
j=e
CAR after transfer
k=j/i
Change in CAR
l=k-d
10,000
882,025
498,334
54,205
10.88%
-0.22%
Source: CBRC, Guotai Junan (HK).
Table 2: Effect on Banks’ earnings after moving Bank-Trust Co-operation Loans to
Balance Sheet
Bank-Trust Co-operation Loans
Fee rate
Fee income from selling above loans
A
B
C=A*B
After the above loan is transferred to Balance Sheet
Loan-deposit interest gap
E
Net interest income
F=A*E
Average NPL Ratio in 2Q 10
G
Provision needed under 150% NPL
Coverage
H=A*G*150%
Earnings after transfer
I=F-H
Change in Earnings
J=I-C
Banking Sector 银行业
RMB100mn
10,000
1.50%
150
3.50%
350
1.30%
195
155
5
Flash Note
Source: CBRC, Guotai Junan (HK).
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 2 of 4
Figure 1: China Money Supply
M1 yoy %
M2 yoy %
Total RMB Loans o/s yoy %
12 August 2010
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jul-10
Dec-09
May-09
Oct-08
Mar-08
Aug-07
Jan-07
Jun-06
Nov-05
Apr-05
Sep-04
Jul-03
Feb-04
Dec-02
May-02
Oct-01
Mar-01
Aug-00
Jan-00
Jun-99
Apr-98
Nov-98
0
Source: PBoC, Guotai Junan (HK).
Figure 2：PBoC’s open market operations
Figure 3：Shibor is easing
8000
4.50
PBoC net cash injection by open market operation, RMB100mn
%
Shibor O/N
Shibor 1M
Shibor 3M
4.00
6000
3.50
4000
3.00
2000
2.50
0
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
Apr-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
-2000
Feb-09
2.00
1.50
1.00
-4000
0.50
-6000
Figure 4: China Banks’ Monthly RMB New Added Loans
RMB Billion
2,000
1,800
RMB New added loans
1,892
RMB new added loans excl. bills
1,653
1,571
1,530
1,523
1,600
1,516
1,390
1,400
1,200
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Source: SHIBOR, Guotai Junan (HK).
Banking Sector 银行业
Source: PBoC, Guotai Junan (HK).
Feb-10
Jan-10
0.00
-8000
1,029 1,072
1,000
875
868
800
592
466
585
600
700
687
667
581
567
369
400
517
410
457
253
403
295
780
511
491
380
774
716
727 639
602 603
533
576
200
0
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09 May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09 Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09 Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10 May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Flash Note
Source: PBoC, Guotai Junan (HK).
See the last page for disclaimer
Page 3 of 4
Company Rating Definition
12 August 2010
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Definition
Buy
Relative Performance >15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Accumulate
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce
Relative Performance is -5% to -15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell
Relative Performance <-15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition
The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating
Outperform
Definition
Relative Performance >5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.
Neutral
Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.
Underperform
Relative Performance <-5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
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underwriter or invest proprietarily).
Banking Sector 银行业
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Flash Note
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