Panel
Panel Discussion
Discussion on
on the
the International
International Conference
Conference on
on Trends
Trends and
and PProblems
roblems
of
Century, 50
50 years
years since
since Rome
Rome 1954
1954
of the
the World
World Population
Population in
in the
the 21
21stst Century,
Changing age structures of
population in Asia and their
implications for development
Naohiro
Naohiro Ogawa
Ogawa
Maliki
Maliki
Rikiya
Rikiya Matsukura
Matsukura
Age Structure of Asia’s Population in 2005
100+
90 - 94
80 - 84
70 - 74
60 - 64
50 - 54
40 - 44
30 - 34
20 - 24
10 - 14
0-4
10
-10
8
-8
6
-6
4
-4
2
-2
00
00
22
Percent of total population
44
6
6
88
1010
Age Structure of Asia’s Population in 2050
100+
90 - 94
80 - 84
70 - 74
60 - 64
50 - 54
40 - 44
30 - 34
20 - 24
10 - 14
0-4
10
- 10
8
-8
6
-6
4
-4
2
-2
0
0
2
0
2
Percent of total population
0
4
4
6
6
8
8
10
10
Age Structure of Japan’s Population in 2005
100+
90 - 94
80 - 84
70 - 74
60 - 64
50 - 54
40 - 44
30 - 34
20 - 24
10 - 14
0- 4
10
-10
8
-8
6
-6
4-4
2
-2
00
00
Percent of total population
22
44
66
88
10
10
Age Structure of Japan’s Population in 2050
100+
90 - 94
80 - 84
70 - 74
60 - 64
50 - 54
40 - 44
30 - 34
20 - 24
10 - 14
10
-10
8
-8
6
-6
4
-4
2
-2
0- 4
0
0
2
0
0
2
Percent of total population
4
4
6
6
8
8
10
10
International Comparison on the Speed of
Population Aging
Singapore
Korea
China
Japan
Thailand
Sri Lanka
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Age Profiles of Per Capita Production and Consumption,
1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, Thousand Yen
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
C 89
Y 89
Age Profiles of Per Capita Production and Consumption,
1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, Thousand Yen
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
C 89
Y 89
C 94
Y 94
Age Profiles of Per Capita Production and Consumption,
1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, Thousand Yen
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
C 89
Y 89
C 94
Y 94
Y 99
C 99
Age Profiles of Per Capita Production and Consumption,
1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, Thousand Yen
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
C 89
C 04
Y 89
Y 04
C 94
Y 94
Y 99
C 99
Japan’s most important
graph reflects a host of vital
economic and social factors
Changing earnings profile
Hours worked
Women’s labor force participation
Sectoral allocation of the labor force
Child care and old age leave
Change in retirement age
Change in the remuneration system
Pension benefits
Enrollment rates in tertiary education
Parasite singles
Freeters and Neets
Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits for Selected Asian
Countries: Those Aged 30-40 = 1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Japan
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits for Selected Asian
Countries: Those Aged 30-40 = 1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Japan
Korea
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-3
Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits for Selected Asian
Countries: Those Aged 30-40 = 1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
88
84
80
76
72
68
64
60
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
-3
Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits for Selected Asian
Countries: Those Aged 30-40 = 1
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
Thailand
36
41
Indonesia
46
51
Japan
56
61
Korea
66
71
76
81
86
91
Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits in Japan, 1989, 1994,
1999, and 2004, Thousand Yen
400
300
200
100
(100)
(200)
(300)
90
85
+
9
-8
4
-8
9
-7
4
-7
2004
80
75
70
9
-6
4
-6
9
-5
1999
65
60
55
4
-5
9
-4
4
-4
9
-3
4
-3
9
-2
4
-2
9
-1
4
-1
1994
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
9
5-
4
0-
1989
Population-weighted Lifecycle Deficits in Japan,
1989, 1994, 1999, and 2004, Trillion Yen
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
90
85
+
9
-8
4
-8
9
-7
4
-7
2004
80
75
70
9
-6
4
-6
9
-5
1999
65
60
55
4
-5
9
-4
4
-4
9
-3
4
-3
9
-2
4
-2
9
-1
4
-1
1994
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
9
5-
4
0-
1989
Crossing Ages in Japan and Selected
Asian Countries
Country
Japan (1989)
Japan (1994)
Japan (1999)
Japan (2004)
South Korea, 2000
Thailand, 1998
India, 2000
Indonesia, 1996
Philippines, 1999
Crossing ages for consumption and labor income Y(x) >
C(x)
Younger Age
Older Age
25
26
27
28
27
26
29
29
26
59
59
59
59
54
59
59
57
56
Average age of mandatory retirement in large firms
Age
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
1965
1971
1977
1983
Year
1989
1995
2001
Public Consumption Allocation to the Youth
and Elderly (%) in Selected Asian Countries
Country
Youth (< 20)
Elderly (65+)
Japan, 2004
28
29
South Korea, 2000
38
7.4
Thailand, 1998
51
4.4
India, 2000
50
6.1
Indonesia, 1996
50
3.8
Philippines, 1999
60
2.9
United States, 2000
29
42
Average Age of Earnings and Current
Consumption in Selected Asian Countries
Country
Consumption
Labor Income
Japan, 2004
47.3
46.0
South Korea, 2000
33.8
38.9
Thailand, 1998
31.9
39.1
India, 2000
31.1
40.1
Indonesia, 1996
28.9
37.9
Philippines, 1999
27.6
36.9
United States, 2000
42.0
43.0
Ratio of Transfers Received by
Elderly/Children Based upon NTA
1989
1994
1999
2004
Public transfers on health, Aggregate
education, and pension
0.96
1.55
2.07
2.92
Per capita
1.62
1.95
2.01
2.27
Aggregate
0.7
1.16
1.55
2.23
Per capita
1.18
1.46
1.51
1.73
Total transfers, both
inter-vivos and public on
health, education, and
pension
Net Transfer Flow in Japan, by Sector, Trillion Yen, 1989
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
Public Education
Private Education
Public Health
Private Health
86
81
76
71
66
61
56
51
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
-4000
Public Pension
Net Transfer Flow in Japan, by Sector, Trillion Yen, 1994
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
P ublic E ducation
P riv ate E ducation
P ublic H ealth
P riv ate H ealth
86
81
76
71
66
61
56
51
46
41
36
31
26
21
16
11
6
1
-4000
P ublic P ension
Net Transfer Flow in Japan, by Sector, Trillion Yen, 1999
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
Public Education
Private Education
Public Health
Private Health
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
1
-4000
Public Pension
Net Transfer Flow in Japan, by Sector, Trillion Yen, 2004
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
Public Education
Private Education
Public Health
Private Health
89
85
81
77
73
69
65
61
57
53
49
45
41
37
33
29
25
21
17
13
9
5
1
-4000
Public Pension
Finance of Consumption among Those 65+ in Selected
Countries
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
-
(0.20)
(0.40)
Japan, 1999
US, 2000
Asset Rerallocation
Work
Taiwan, 1998
Thailand, 1998
Inter-vivos Transfers
Indonesia,
1996
The Pilippines,
2000
Public Transfers
Bequest
Finance of Consumption in Japan, 1989
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
0-4 5-9 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85- 90+
14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89
-40%
Labor Income
Asset Reallocations
Public Transfers
Intervivos Transfers
Finance of Consumption in Japan, 2004
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
0-4 5-9 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85- 90+
14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89
-40%
Labor Income
Asset Reallocations
Public Transfers
Intervivos Transfers
First Dividend in Selected Asian Countries, 1920 - 2100
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
1920
1935
1950
1965
1980
1995
2010
2025
Japan
2040
2055
2070
2085
2100
First Dividend in Selected Asian Countries, 1920 - 2100
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
1920
1935
1950
1965
1980
1995
2010
Japan
2025
Korea
2040
2055
2070
2085
2100
First Dividend in Selected Asian Countries, 1920 - 2100
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
1920
1935
1950
1965
1980
1995
Japan
2010
2025
Thailand
2040
2055
Korea
2070
2085
2100
First Dividend in Selected Asian Countries, 1920 - 2100
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
1920
1935
1950
1965
1980
Japan
1995
2010
Thailand
2025
2040
Indonesia
2055
2070
Korea
2085
2100
Growth of reserved funds for all public pension
schemes combined, 1965-2002
200
Trillion yen
150
100
50
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Financial Report on the Public Pension System: Fiscal Year 2003, 2004.
Age profile of assets and pension wealth in Japan, 1999
60
50
Million yen
40
30
20
10
0
18 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Age
Financial assets
Real assets
Present value of future pension benefits
80
85
90
95
Second Dividend of Selected Asian Countries, 1950 - 2050
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Japan
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Second Dividend of Selected Asian Countries, 1950 - 2050
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Japan
2010
Korea
2020
2030
2040
2050
Second Dividend of Selected Asian Countries, 1950 - 2050
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Japan
2000
2010
Thailand
2020
Korea
2030
2040
2050
Second Dividend of Selected Asian Countries, 1950 - 2050
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
-0.01
-0.02
1950
1960
1970
1980
Japan
1990
2000
Thailand
2010
Indonesia
2020
2030
Korea
2040
2050
Projected elderly population by heath status, Japan
2000-2025
(based on health status transition rates)
40
35
30
Millions
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Healthy
Unhealthy
2020
2025
Two simulations
(1) All healthy
persons work
(2) Retirement
age from 60 to 65
Simulation exercises for alternative labor force
participation among the elderly in Japan, 2005-2025
NUPRI Model projection (Base run)
Simulation 1
Potential GDP (Trillion yen)
2005
561.2
653.8
2015
600.6
747.2
2025
619.1
791.3
Potential GDP per capita (Million yen)
2005
4.4
5.1
2015
4.8
5.9
2025
5.1
6.5
Labor force (1000 persons)
2005
66958
86803
2015
62827
89107
2025
59172
87880
(16.5%)
(24.4%)
(27.8%)
(16.5%)
(23.9%)
(26.7%)
Simulation 2
576.4 (2.7%)
661.8 (10.2%)
692.3 (11.8%)
4.5 (2.9%)
5.3 (10.8%)
5.7 (12.3%)
(29.6%) 70386 (5.1%)
(41.8%) 73938 (17.7%)
(48.5%) 70921 (19.9%)
Simulation 1: We assume that the all healthy persons aged 65 and over will participate with labor force throughout the projection.
Simulation 2: We assume (1) that the labor force participation rates of those aged 60-64 are raised to those of 55 to 59 and (2) that the
participation rates of those aged 65 and over are raised by 10 percentage points above the current rates.
Future Japanese elderly
persons
will be wealthy!
Future Japanese elderly
persons
will be
not only wealthy but
healthy!
Future Japanese elderly
persons
will be
wealthier, healthier
and
cleverer!
Future Japanese elderly
persons
may save
Japan!
‹Even
fertility may recover!!!
Changing family
support !
Who provides care to
the elderly?
Change in the proportion of those 60+ living in threegenerational households, selected countries, 1981-2001
60.0
50.0
Thailand
Percent
40.0
South Korea
Japan
30.0
20.0
Italy
10.0
France
0.0
Germany
U.S.
Sweden
U.K.
1981
1986
1991
Year
1996
2001
Trends in the proportion of marriages that were arranged and the proportion of newly married
couples who coresided with parents at the time of marriage: Japan, 1955-96
70
Coresided with parents (among women married to an eldest son)
60
Arranged
marriage
50
40
Coresided with parents
Proportion (%)
30
Coresided with husband's parents
20
Coresided with wife's parents
10
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year of marriage
Source: Three-year moving averages based on pooled data for currently married women age 15-49
from nine rounds of the National Survey on Family Planning between 1981 and 1998.
1995
%
Change in the proportion of deaths at residence
100
80
Home
Hospital
60
40
20
0
1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
Year
1955
40-59 Women
65-84
2.01.5-2.0
1.0-1.5
0.75-1.0
0.5-0.75
0.5-
1975
40-59 Women
65-84
2.01.5-2.0
1.0-1.5
0.75-1.0
0.5-0.75
0.5-
2000
40-59 Women
65-84
2.01.5-2.0
1.0-1.5
0.75-1.0
0.5-0.75
0.5-
2025
40-59 Women
65-84
2.01.5-2.0
1.0-1.5
0.75-1.0
0.5-0.75
0.5-
Family support ratio (Women 40-59 / 65-84), 1995-2050
140
Australia
Austria
Belarus
Belgium
Bulgaria
120
Canada
Channel Islands
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
100
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
80
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Latvia
Lithuania
60
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norw ay
40
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
20
Sw eden
Sw itzerland
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States of America
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Projected number of centenarians
Million 2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
United Nations
(2004)
0.8
0.6
Government
0.4
0.2
0.0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Sudden
Value Shift
Trends in norms and expectations about care for
the elderly: Japan, 1950-2004
90
80
"Good Custom" or "Natural Duty“
70
60
50
％
Mainichi Newspapers of Japan
Expect to Depend on Children
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1956
1962
1968
1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
Year
Sources: Mainichi Newspapers of Japan, Summary of Twenty-fifth National Survey on Family Planning,2000.
Mainichi Newspapers of Japan, Summary of the 2004 round of the National Survey on Population, Families and Generations, 2004.
Those aged 50+ living in Tokyo
Metropolitan Area
•Husbands 41%
•Wives 19%
•What are these
percentages?
Thank you!