EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S WORKING PAPER NO. 157 BIDDING AND PERFORMANCE IN REPO AUCTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM ECB OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS BY KJELL G. NYBORG, ULRICH BINDSEIL AND ILYA A. STREBULAEV July 2002 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S WORKING PAPER NO. 157 BIDDING AND PERFORMANCE IN REPO AUCTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM ECB OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS BY KJELL G. NYBORG, ULRICH BINDSEIL AND ILYA A. STREBULAEV* July 2002 * We wish to thank the ECBs Front Office Division for providing secondary market data and Jean-Louis Schirmann for helpful discussions on the microstructure of the euro area money market. We also wish to thank seminar participants at the ECB for valuable comments. Nyborg would like to thank the ECBs Directorate General Research for its invitation to a research stay in the autumn of 2001, when the bulk of this research was carried out. Strebulaev would like to thank the ECB for the opportunity to visit it for the purpose of this research project. Nyborg: London Business School, Regents Park, London NW1 4SA, UK, [email protected]; CEPR. Bindseil: European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, [email protected]. Strebulaev: London Business School, [email protected] © European Central Bank, 2002 Address Postal address Telephone Internet Fax Telex Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany +49 69 1344 0 http://www.ecb.int +49 69 1344 6000 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. ISSN 1561-0810 Contents Abstract 4 Non-technical summary 5 1 Introduction 6 2 Institutional Framework 2.1 Operational Framework of the Eurosystem 2.2 Open Market Operations: The Auctions 2.3 The Liquidity Management (allotment policy) of the European Central Bank 8 8 9 10 3 Overview of the Data and the Markets 3.1 The Auctions 3.2 The Secondary Market 11 11 13 4 Theoretical Considerations 4.1 Winners Curse and Collateral 4.2 Reserve Requirements: Shorts and Longs 4.3 Collateral, Auction Cycle and Minimum Bid Rate 15 15 15 16 5 Cross Sectional Analysis 5.1 Descriptive Statistics 5.2 Regression Analysis 17 17 19 6 Intertemporal Behavior and Performance 6.1 Behavior 6.2 Performance Across and Within Maintenance Periods 23 23 24 7 Size 26 8 Underbidding 28 9 Conclusion 30 10 Appendix: Conditional Volatility Estimation 31 11 References 32 Tables & Figures 34 European Central Bank Working Paper Series 54 ECB Working Paper No 157 July 2002 3 $EVWUDFW %LGGLQJ DQG 3HUIRUPDQFH LQ 5HSR $XFWLRQV 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