Dispatch No. 45 | 15 September 2015
African democracy update: Democratic
satisfaction remains elusive for many
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 45 | Thomas Bentley, Kangwook Han,
and Peter Halley Penar
Summary
For democracy advocates around the world, International Day of Democracy highlights the
contributions of citizens to making decisions for their countries and ensuring that governments
are accountable to their people. On International Day of Democracy 2015 (September 15),
Afrobarometer examines how African citizens perceive the quality of their democracies.
Many African countries have signed or ratified the African Union Charter on Democracy,
Elections and Governance, which clearly expresses governments’ commitments to “human
rights and democratic principles,” a representative system of government (Chapter 4 and
Chapter 5), and free and fair elections (Chapter 7). New Afrobarometer data from 28
countries1 suggest that the extent to which African countries put democratic ideals into
practice varies widely across countries.
On average, barely half of surveyed citizens consider their country a “full democracy” or “a
democracy with minor problems,” and less than half (46%) are “fairly” or “very” satisfied with
how democracy is working in their country, a decrease from the previous survey round.
Levels of satisfaction range from highs of 72% in Namibia and 68% in Botswana to lows of 26%
in Togo and 11% in Madagascar.
Regular, free, and fair elections, a cornerstone of democracy, are not yet a universal reality,
the survey data indicate. While large majorities in Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) consider
their most recent national elections either “completely free and fair” or “free and fair but
with minor problems,” only 46% share this opinion in Ghana.
Other important elements of democracy, such as freedom of speech and association, also
show substantial differences among countries. In several countries, such as Swaziland, Togo,
and Zimbabwe, citizens perceive high barriers to speaking freely, whereas most Malawians
and Ghanaians believe they can say what they think. Differences across the 28 countries are
smaller with regard to the freedom to join political organisations and the freedom to vote for
candidates of their choice, although a majority of Swazis register a lack of freedom of
association and vote choice.
As the African Union and international community work to support African countries to fulfil
their commitments to democracy, the perceptions of ordinary citizens provide an important
window on progress and remaining challenges.
1
Afrobarometer Round 6 surveys, representing two-thirds of African countries and 76% of the continent’s
population, cover countries at various levels of democracy, although a number of the continent’s least
democratic states are excluded. The 28 countries for which Round 6 data are currently available are Benin,
Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho,
Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Swaziland,
Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
1
Afrobarometer surveys
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude
surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more
than 30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013,
and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer conducts face-toface interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative
samples that yield country-level results with margins of error of +/-2% (for samples of 2,400) or
+/3% (for samples of 1,200) at a 95% confidence level.
This dispatch presents some preliminary findings based on data from 41,953 interviews
completed so far in 28 countries during Round 6 (see the appendix for fieldwork completion
times). Interested readers should watch for additional findings on democracy and other
topics to be released once Round 6 surveys are completed, starting in October 2015.
Key findings




On average across 28 countries, a slight majority (52%) of citizens perceive their
country to be a full democracy (18%) or a democracy with only minor problems
(34%). In 10 of the 28 countries, the more frequently expressed view is that the country
is a democracy with major problems or not a democracy at all.
Compared to the previous round of surveys (Round 5, 2011-2013), satisfaction with
democracy declined from 50% to 46% of citizens who say they are “very” or “fairly”
satisfied. Satisfaction levels vary substantially across countries, from highs of 72% in
Namibia and 68% in Botswana to lows of 26% in Togo and 11% in Madagascar.
Seven of 10 respondents say their most recent national elections were “completely
free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems.” About nine of 10 citizens in
Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) share this view, but only 46% of Ghanaians agree.
A bare majority (51%) of citizens say they are “completely free” to say what they
think. Freedom of speech is perceived as most limited in Swaziland (where only 18%
say they are completely free), Togo (26%), and Zimbabwe (27%). Citizens are
somewhat more confident in their freedom of political association (61% completely
free) and express relatively high confidence in their freedom to vote as they choose
(73%).
No consensus on the supply of democracy
A slim majority (52%) of Africans perceive their country to be either a full democracy (18%) or
a democracy with only minor problems (34%) (Figure 1).
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
2
Figure 1: Extent of democracy | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Not a democracy
12%
10%
A democracy, with
major problems
18%
27%
A democracy, but with
minor problems
A full democracy
34%
Do not understand
question / democracy /
Don't know
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much of a democracy is your country today?
Countries differ considerably in the extent of democracy that their citizens perceive.
Majorities give favourable assessments in 15 countries, led by Mauritius (76%), Botswana
(75%), and Namibia (72%) (Figure 2). But at the other extreme, only one-third of citizens in
Swaziland and Nigeria share this positive assessment. (Note that Nigerians’ negative
assessments of the extent of their democracy, their satisfaction with democracy, and the
quality of their most recent national election were captured in December 2014, some three
months before the country underwent a historic electoral transition. On the flipside,
Burundians’ relatively positive assessments were recorded in September-October 2014, long
before the highly contested 2015 election that saw President Pierre Nkurunziza win a
constitutionally questionable third term while many opposition and civil-society leaders had
to flee the country.) Overall, in 10 of the 28 countries, more citizens say their country is not a
democracy or a democracy with major problems than hold the more favourable view.
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
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Figure 2: Extent of democracy | by country | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Swaziland
Nigeria
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Tunisia
Sierra Leone
Togo
Cameroon
Côte d'Ivoire
Kenya
Guinea
Malawi
Burkina Faso
Average
Uganda
Ghana
Liberia
Benin
Mali
Cape Verde
Tanzania
Zambia
Senegal
Niger
Burundi
Namibia
Botswana
Mauritius
33%
16%
51%
33%
4%
63%
35%
18%
47%
36%
19%
45%
37%
17%
47%
38%
7%
55%
38%
36%
27%
40%
4%
56%
44%
9%
47%
45%
8%
47%
48%
21%
32%
48%
3%
49%
49%
9%
42%
51%
10%
39%
52%
11%
37%
52%
24%
24%
52%
10%
38%
53%
9%
39%
54%
7%
39%
55%
2%
44%
55%
10%
35%
58%
27%
14%
65%
9%
26%
65%
9%
26%
70%
12%
18%
71%
4%
25%
72%
6%
22%
75%
5%
20%
76%
4%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A full democracy or a democracy with minor problems
Do not understand question / democracy or don't know
Not a democracy or a democracy with major problems
Satisfaction with democracy varies just as widely. Across 28 countries, only a plurality (46%) of
citizens say they are “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied” with the way democracy works in their
country(Figure 3), while 43% say they are “not very satisfied” or “not at all satisfied.”
Satisfaction runs highest in Namibia (72%), Botswana (68%), Mauritius (66%), and Burundi (66%)
but falls below one-third of citizens in seven countries, including Madagascar (11%), Togo
(25%), Cape Verde (26%), and Nigeria (28%). (As above, the caveats regarding the timing of
the Burundi and Nigeria surveys apply.) Sizeable majorities express dissatisfaction with their
democracy in 11 of the 28 countries.
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
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Figure 3: Satisfaction with democracy | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Namibia
27%
45%
Botswana
29%
39%
Mauritius
14%
52%
Burundi
31%
35%
Niger
29%
36%
Senegal
19%
45%
Tanzania
12%
48%
Zambia
29%
31%
Tunisia
9%
49%
Ghana
20%
35%
Uganda
15%
35%
Mali
16%
33%
Malawi
19%
30%
Kenya
12%
35%
Average
15%
31%
Burkina Faso
11%
32%
Liberia
14%
29%
Guinea
17%
24%
Benin
8%
32%
Cameroon
7%
30%
Côte d'Ivoire
8%
28%
Zimbabwe
12%
22%
Lesotho
13%
19%
Sierra Leone
14%
16%
Nigeria 4%
24%
Swaziland
7%
21%
Cape Verde
8%
18%
Togo
7%
18%
Madagascar 2% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Very satisfied
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Fairly satisfied
Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your
country?
Satisfaction with democracy is not static, and changes over time may sometimes reflect
factors other than the functioning of democratic institutions (such as economic problems
that citizens may attribute to “democracy,” or rising (as-yet unsatisfied) public expectations
of how democracy should work). Looking at short-term changes since Round 5 surveys were
conducted in 2011-2013, we find that on average across the 28 countries, satisfaction with
democracy decreased from 50% to 46%. It increased markedly, however, in six countries, led
by Mali (a 19-percentage-point increase) and Tunisia (18-point increase) (Figure 4).
In contrast, seven countries experienced declines in satisfaction of more than 10 percentage
points, most dramatically a 32-percentage–point drop in Sierra Leone (Figure 5). Ghana’s 18percentage–point decrease in satisfaction is particularly remarkable; discontent with the
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
5
government’s economic management may be one of several factors contributing to this
change.2
Figure 4: Increasing satisfaction with democracy | 6 countries with largest increases
| 2011-2015
80%
70%
62%
60%
50%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
72%
28-country
average
58%
Mali
50%
40%
46%
31%
37%
30%
36%
30%
21%
Tunisia
Namibia
Cameroon
26%
Cote d’Ivoire
Togo
0%
2011/2013
2014/2015
(% “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied”)
Figure 5: Declining satisfaction with democracy | countries with declines of more
than 10 percentage points | 2011-2015
80%
75%
70%
50%
74%
61%
60%
59%
50%
50%
40%
45%
60%
30%
20%
28-country
average
60%
56%
Liberia
Tanzania
46%
43%
40%
Ghana
32%
29%
Cape Verde
26%
Lesotho
10%
Benin
0%
2011/2013
2014/2015
(% “very satisfied” or “fairly satisfied”)
2
See Bratton, M., & Gyimah-Boadi, E. (2015). Political risks facing African democracies: Evidence from
Afrobarometer. Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 157, at www.afrobarometer.org.
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
6
Elections: A key democratic indicator
Elections are widely recognized as a key component of the democratic process, and the
perceived quality of elections has been found to be a strong indicator of popular ratings of
the quality of democracy. Afrobarometer asked respondents to rate the quality of the most
recent national election in their country (see the appendix for election year by country).
Across 28 countries, seven in 10 African citizens (70%) indicate that their elections were
“completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems” (Figure 6). About nine of 10
citizens in Mauritius (91%) and Senegal (87%) share this view, while citizens in Ghana (46%),
Nigeria (46%), Liberia (54%), and Côte d’Ivoire (55%) are least likely to agree.
Figure 6: Quality of elections | 28 countries | 2014/2015
100%
90%
80%
91
87
84 83 83
81 80
78 77 76
70%
75 75
70 70 69 69 68
60%
67 66
64 62
61
58 56 56
55 54
46 46
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Mauritius
Senegal
Madagascar
Niger
Mali
Burundi
Namibia
Uganda
Botswana
Swaziland
Lesotho
Tanzania
Malawi
Average
Tunisia
Sierra Leone
Zimbabwe
Guinea
Benin
Burkina Faso
Kenya
Togo
Cameroon
Zambia
Cape Verde
Côte d'Ivoire
Liberia
Nigeria
Ghana
0%
Respondents were asked: On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last
national election? (% who say “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems”)
Freedom of speech limited in several countries
Another key indicator of the quality of a democracy is the enjoyment of basic freedoms of
speech, association, and vote choice. Across the 28 countries, a bare majority of 51% of
citizens say they are “completely free” to speak their minds (Figure 7). Another 26% feel
“somewhat free,” while 22% say they are “not at all” or “not very” free to say what they think.
Malawi (77%) and Ghana (73%) top the list of those who say they enjoy complete freedom of
expression; majorities share this view in 18 of the 28 countries. Freedom of speech is
perceived as most limited in in Swaziland (where only 18% say they are completely free),
Togo (26%), Zimbabwe (27%), Nigeria (28%), Burkina Faso (31%), and Côte d’Ivoire (31%).
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
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Figure 7: Freedom of speech | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Swaziland
59%
Zimbabwe
20%
43%
Nigeria
39%
Côte d'Ivoire
38%
Togo
38%
Sierra Leone
30%
32%
30%
25%
Mali
24%
Burkina Faso
24%
Zambia
23%
Average
22%
Madagascar
22%
26%
23%
Niger
19%
26%
16%
Mauritius
16%
Lesotho
15%
Liberia
15%
29%
Benin
14%
33%
10%
Senegal
10%
Tunisia
10%
Ghana
9%
Namibia
9%
1%
54%
2%
65%
24%
1%
59%
43%
1%
41%
14%
0%
68%
3%
53%
2%
53%
22%
0%
65%
12%
1%
77%
17%
1%
72%
23%
0%
67%
1%
73%
26%
Not at all or not very free
1%
53%
19%
20%
0%
56%
21%
10%
1%
36%
17%
Tanzania 4%
0%
51%
28%
12%
Malawi
1%
42%
Guinea
1%
62%
20%
Uganda
31%
15%
16%
2%
53%
44%
Cape Verde
30%
2%
2%
42%
24%
Botswana
1%
35%
31%
17%
1%
6%
36%
Kenya
28%
53%
28%
Cameroon
1%
26%
9%
3%
27%
31%
34%
32%
Burundi
18%
40%
50%
Somewhat free
1%
70%
0%
70%
0%
60%
70%
80%
Completely free
90%
100%
Don’t know
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to say what you think?
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
8
Citizens are somewhat more confident in their freedom of political association. In half of the
countries, no more than one in 10 citizens say they are “not very” or “not at all” free (Figure
8). On average across 28 countries, 15% say they lack freedom of association, 21% feel
“somewhat free,” and 62% feel “completely free.” The most dramatic exceptions are
Swaziland (where 73% of citizens say they do not enjoy freedom of association) and
Zimbabwe (41% not free).
Figure 8: Lack of freedom of political association | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Tanzania
2%
Senegal
4%
Niger
4%
Botswana
4%
Ghana
4%
Namibia
5%
Mali
6%
Liberia
6%
Uganda
7%
Sierra Leone
8%
Lesotho
8%
Malawi
9%
Benin
10%
Guinea
10%
Tunisia
11%
Cameroon
11%
Kenya
13%
Average
15%
Burkina Faso
15%
Burundi
16%
Cape Verde
16%
Zambia
17%
Mauritius
19%
Cote d'Ivoire
22%
Madagascar
22%
Togo
23%
Nigeria
24%
Zimbabwe
41%
Swaziland
73%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to join any political organisation you want?
(% who say “not at all free” or “not very free”)
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
9
Voting freedom is reported to be considerably more robust. Nearly three-fourths (73%) say
they are completely free to vote as they choose, while 18% feel at least “somewhat free”
(Figure 9). But while 80% or more say they are completely free in 12 countries, in several
others confidence is considerably more circumscribed, including Zimbabwe (35% completely
free), Nigeria (49%), Côte d’Ivoire (54%), Burundi (55%), and Swaziland (56%). Just 8% report
that they do not enjoy any electoral freedom, although this number rises to more than onethird (35%) in Zimbabwe. So while overall confidence in voting freedom is high, it is clear that
citizens in a number of countries still face significant barriers to voting for the candidate of
their choice.
Figure 9: Freedom to vote for candidate of their choice | 28 countries | 2014/2015
Zimbabwe
Nigeria
Côte d'Ivoire
Burundi
Swaziland
Burkina Faso
Togo
Madagascar
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Benin
Average
Mauritius
Liberia
Kenya
Guinea
Mali
Niger
Tanzania
Zambia
Lesotho
Uganda
Botswana
Ghana
Namibia
Sierra Leone
Tunisia
Senegal
Malawi
35%
29%
49%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
61%
68%
72%
72%
73%
74%
77%
77%
77%
79%
80%
80%
82%
83%
85%
85%
85%
85%
86%
89%
89%
94%
0%
20%
40%
Completely free
31%
30%
36%
29%
34%
30%
34%
21%
16%
21%
18%
24%
14%
15%
18%
17%
17%
18%
8%
7%
10%
10%
11%
13%
7%
6%
9%
3%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Somewhat free
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free are you to choose who to vote for without feeling
pressured?
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
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Appendix
Country
Month when Round 6
fieldwork was completed
Last national election
prior to survey
Benin
June 2014
2011
Botswana
July 2014
2009
Burkina Faso
May 2015
2012
Burundi
October 2014
2010
Cameroon
February 2015
2013
Cape Verde
December 2014
2011
Côte d'Ivoire
September 2014
2011
Ghana
June 2014
2012
Guinea
April 2015
2013
Kenya
December 2014
2013
Lesotho
May 2014
2012
Liberia
May 2015
2011
Madagascar
January 2015
2013
Malawi
April 2014
2009
Mali
December 2014
2013
Mauritius
July 2014
2010
Namibia
September 2014
2009
Niger
April 2015
2011
Nigeria
January 2015
2011
Senegal
December 2014
2012
Sierra Leone
June 2015
2012
Swaziland
April 2015
2013
Tanzania
November 2014
2010
Togo
October 2014
2013
Tunisia
May 2015
2014
Uganda
May 2015
2011
Zambia
October 2014
2011
Zimbabwe
November 2014
2013
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
11
To further explore this data, please visit Afrobarometer's online data
analysis facility at www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis.
Thomas Bentley is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the
Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]
Kangwook Han is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the
Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]
Peter Halley Penar is a research assistant for Afrobarometer and a PhD student in the
Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. Email: [email protected]
Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 30 African
countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD) in
Ghana, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for
Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical
Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the
University of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.
Core support for Afrobarometer Rounds 5 and 6 has been provided by the UK’s Department
for International Development (DFID), the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), and the World Bank.
For more information, please visit www.afrobarometer.org.
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 45 | 15 September 2015
Copyright © Afrobarometer 2015
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