The competitiveness and degree of difficulty of the South African PSL in
comparison to the European Football Leagues
By: TA. Dikgale
This paper assesses the extent to which the South African PSL compares to other
European Football leagues in terms of competitiveness and degree of difficulty. It
relies on a theoretical model of investigation that interrogates team
performances and other attendant variables over the ten season period starting
from 1999/2000 to 2008/2009. The model is run for four countries namely England,
Italy Spain and South Africa. The paper concludes that the true determinant of
competitive strength and degree of difficulty of a football league is the
consistency of teams on such variables as Conversion on available points,
Average points per game, Average goals per match, Average goal difference
in the top half of the table and Top half spread on points achieved. The results
indicate that in South Africa it is far more difficult to achieve and maintain
dominance, as compared to the rest of the leagues studied. The paper
concludes that the high concentration of talent in the big European teams
makes their leagues more predictable and effortless to dominate.
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Introduction
The life and times of the majority of South Africans is laden with memories carved
with images and sounds that have to do with the wonderful game of football.
South African history (most of which can best be described as tragic) from the
birth of apartheid to the miraculous achievement of a rainbow nation; football
has been at the centre stage.
For many years, mothers have relied on the beautiful game to be the reliable
baby-sitter; while they fight the daily challenges that come with the responsibility
of putting a meal on the table.
Wives wait jealously on the sidelines to
accommodate their husbands’ apparent anxiety as they sit apprehensively with
the radio pressed to their ears listening to the game. The beautiful game is, as it
is popularly known, has always been at the very core of South African sporty
culture, and always will be the life blood of the nation.
As if mimicking the tumultuous South Africa political history, South African football
has been through proverbial trials and tribulations. While the nation struggles
with defining its values, purpose and meaning in the context of a democracy;
football has become a crazy demonstration of a downward spiral into the abyss.
At some point, South African stars like Jomo Sono, Kaizer Motaung, Ace
Ntsweleng and Lucas Radebe held their own playing world class football
alongside world cup legend like Franz Beckenbauer's, Pele, Muller and Didi (the
Brazilian master of the long pass).
The level of organization reached formidable standards from the days of
National Professional Soccer League (NPSL), to those of the National Soccer
League (NSL) which commendably produced the most successful SA national
soccer team in history to-date. This was the period when the South African
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national team performance peaked as the nation reached the number one
spot on the continental ratings by winning the 1996 African Cup of Nations.
The PSL was then inaugurated in the 1996-1997 season. The league climbed to
the enviable position of being the eleventh biggest league in the world.
However, like clockwork, so began the decline; putting the national team in the
lowest international ranking position ever (85) on the eve of the biggest soccer
exhibition to be played on African soil, FIFA World Cup of 2010.
Today, with the responsibility of hosting the first and historic World Cup final in
2010 upon us, South Africa’s National Team is bedeviled by a myriad of problems
as reflects in:
•
Failure to qualify for the African Cup of Nations 2010 in Angola;
•
8 losses in 9 games;
•
Lack of experience of majority of national team players;
•
Erratic changes in the coaching department; and
•
General lack of depth in the team.
As can be imagined analysts, commentators and the public at large have been
vocal in expressing emotional opinions in an effort to correct this problem. A lot
of the problem, which has been attributed to the following:
•
Poor leadership in the national football association;
•
Poor coaching;
•
Personal interest being put ahead of the nation;
•
Lack of support from club bosses to the national team; and
•
Absence of developmental focus in the graduation of teams into the
national senior team.
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But probably the most frequent criticism that has been constantly leveled
against the national football association has been the poor quality of the
national football league.
The purpose of this paper is not to provide a proverbial antidote for the ills that
continue to afflict South African football, but to analyze trends, facts and
introduce new perspective.
Problem statement
As indicated in the paragraph above. It has come to light that the general
opinion is that Premier Soccer League is weak.
And that the quality of the
players produced in this league is sub-standard. This paper seeks to present a
different view. We will seek to provide evidence to the following points:
•
That contrary to popular believe the South African PSL is indeed the
toughest leagues in the world.
Empirical Study
To test the above hypothesis, the study will attempt to interrogate the following
performance relationships:
•
Winners’ conversion on available points.
•
Average points per game.
•
Average goals per match.
•
Average goal difference in the top half of the table.
•
Top half spread on points achieved.
Scope
The empirical study will be conducted within context of the following leagues:
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• Premier Soccer League of South Africa,
• Premiership of England.
• La Liga of Spain.
• Serie A of Italy.
The above list is selected based on the generally accepted postulate they are
the best in the world. This sample not only tests the South African PSL against the
best in the world on the basis of strength of performance, but it also compares
the PSL to other league on the basis of the concentration of talent; a concept
which will be further extrapolated in the analysis and interpretation section of the
paper.
The study will evaluate trends over the period concurrent to the existence of the
PSL i.e. 1999/2000 season to the 2008/2009.
Limitation
One of the biggest challenges with this exercise is the availability of the data for
the complete period stated above, as not all details are available for scrutiny.
However, this paper believes that the periods considered are long enough for
discernable trends to be deduced and interpreted within the context of the
evaluation methodology chosen for the purposes of this paper.
Empirical findings
One of the first signs of a team’s ability to capture the championship in any
country is its ability to win matches and do so constantly. The ratios derived for
this purpose are: Annual Conversion on Available Points, Average Points Earned
per Game.
Annual Conversion Rate on points available
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This measurement aims to describe the rate of success of the winning team per
season in relation to the rest of the teams.
By definition, the results of this
computation should be interpreted as saying, of the total number of points for
which the team competes, how many does the team secure? Consequently the
team, which achieves the highest ratio, is ideally deemed to be most consistent
and successful.
To illustrate the evaluation method let us first consider the following formula:
If:
Pts
= Available points per season.
Ng
= Number of games per season.
Ppg
= Points awarded per game.
TFP
= Team’s final points.
Conv = Annual Conversion Rate on points.
Then:
Pts
= Ng x Ppg
And therefore
Conv = TFP ÷ Pts.
A graphical representation of the Annual Conversion Rate on points for all four
logs for the period analyzed is as follows:
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90%
85%
80%
75%
PSL
Eng Premiership
La Liga
70%
Serie A
65%
60%
55%
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
Data source: www.soccerbot.com
In the above diagram, it shows quite clearly that the winners in the PSL tend to
convert their points at the lowest rate as compared to winners in the other
leagues. In fact on average over the period above the league’s winners have
converted as follows:
PSL
Average
Annual
Conversion Rate
66%
Eng
Premiership
Spanish
La Liga
Italian
Serie A
77%
69%
74%
What this means is that each time the best team steps on the pitch in South
Africa, they are more likely to lose a match once every three matches they play.
As opposed to the one loss every four matches played in the Premiership and
Serie A. This therefore implies that it is more difficult to be the best and stay at
the top consistently as compared to the other three leagues.
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Average Points Earned per Game.
This measurement aims to describe the rate of success of the winning team per
season in relation to the other winning teams in the other leagues. By definition,
the results of this computation should be interpreted as saying, how many points
does a team need to earn consistently per match, in order to win the league in
each country? Therefore the team, which achieves the highest rate, is deemed
to be most consistent and successful, while the team with the lowest rate can be
deemed to be experiencing the most difficulty.
To illustrate the evaluation method let us first consider the following:
If:
Ng
= Number of games per season.
TFP
= Team’s final points.
Avg PTS
= Average Points Earned per Game.
And therefore
Avg PTS
= TFP ÷ Ng.
A graphical representation of the Average Points Earned per Game on points for
all four logs for the period analyzed is as follows:
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Data source: www.soccerbot.com
As illustrated in the figure above, it can be noted that to win the championship in
England one can earn 2.3 points per match, 2.22 in Italy and 2.06 in Spain.
Meanwhile in South Africa on the other hand, teams that can manage 1.98
points per match get to be crowned champions.
Average goals per match
This measurement aims to describe the rate of success of each match produce
goals per season in relation to the other leagues. By definition, the results of this
computation should be interpreted as saying, how many goals does one expect
to be scored in a single match on average, in each country?
To illustrate the evaluation method let us first consider the following:
If:
N
=
number of teams in a league per season.
P
=
total number of matches played per season
G
=
Sum of goal forwards per season
=
N(N-1)
Therefore:
P
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And therefore
Average goals per match
=
G/P
A graphical representation of the Average goals per match achieved for all four
logs for the period analyzed is as follows:
3.00
2.90
2.80
2.70
2.60
PSL
2.50
Eng Premiership
La Liga
Serie A
2.40
2.30
2.20
2.10
2.00
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
Data source: www.soccerbot.com
As illustrated in the figure above, despite the general perception that PSL has
limited talent in terms of striking capacity, the gap is between average goals per
match is marginal. In fact on average over the period above the goals scored
per match in each league are as follows:
Average goals per match
PSL
2.48
Eng
Premiership
2.65
Spanish Italian
La Liga Serie A
2.67
2.62
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The table above shows that the number of goals scored per match in the SA PSL
is a mere 0.14 goals less than the other leagues. This marginal gap can be
attributed to the style of play rather than quality of staff.
Top half spread on points achieved
This measurement aims to describe the gap of the teams that finished in the top
half of the table each year. The reason for using the top half of the table only is
that this is a comparison of the degree of difference in performance amongst
the top performers in the league. By definition, the results of this computation
should be interpreted as an indication of the difference in strength and perhaps
quality between the winners and the middle most team in that season. And
therefore ideally the log table which achieves the lowest gap is deemed to be
the league which displays the most even spread of quality and visa versa. This
spread is then expressed as a percentage of total Available points per season so
that we can have means to compare the result across the leagues.
To illustrate the evaluation method let us first consider the following:
If:
N1
= winning team’s final points.
Nm
= Median team final points
Pts
= Available points per season.
And therefore
Top half spread on points achieved
= (N1-Nm)/Pts
A graphical representation of the Top half spread on points achieved for all four
logs for the period analyzed is as follows:
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50%
45%
40%
35%
PSL
30%
Eng Premiership
La Liga
Serie A
25%
20%
15%
10%
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
Data source: www.soccerbot.com
As illustrated in the figure above, it can be noted that in South Africa, there is
very little separating the teams in the top half. In actual fact in the last four years
the gap has dropped considerable form the mid to late twenties, to +/- 14%. In
the other logs however, the size of the gaps seems to be widening since the
2002-2003 season. This can only mean that the top teams are getting better and
better, while the median teams are unable to keep up.
Average goal difference in the top half of the table
This measurement aims to describe the average goal difference of the teams
that finished in the top half of the table each year. The reason for using the top
half of the table is that if you use the entire log, the average will always come to
zero. Because, one team’s goal forward is another team’s goal against.
By
definition, the results of this computation should be interpreted as an indication
of the offensive vs. the defensive prowess in the different logs. And therefore
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ideally the log table which achieves the lowest average is deemed to be
tightest most defensive log of the four; while the log table with the biggest
average should indicate the various teams’ propensity to score as compared to
the reduced capacity to defend.
A graphical representation of the Average goal difference on top half for all four
logs for the period analyzed is as follows:
23.00
21.00
19.00
17.00
15.00
PSL
Eng Premiership
La Liga
13.00
Serie A
11.00
9.00
7.00
5.00
1999-2000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
Data source: www.soccerbot.com
As illustrated by the graph above it is quite clear that the goal difference
average in South Africa is the lowest of the four, while the English Premiership is
the highest. In fact since the 2003/2004 season this average seems to have
dropped considerably in South Africa, from +/- 14 goals to just about 11 goals in
2008-2009. Meanwhile in the English Premiership, in the same period the average
goal difference went from 14 to over 21.
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Analysis and interpretation
Summing up the findings above the following key deductions can be drawn:
-
The South African PSL is indeed the toughest league of the sample
selected in this study, due to the fact that there is very little that separates
the teams in terms of strength, quality and ability to win.
The
measurements above show emphatically that teams that achieve 1.98
points per game will attain the championship; whereas if they do not
achieve 34 points they will get relegated (average 1.13 points per game).
And therefore the gap between the best and worst stands at the 0.85
points per game.
-
To further enunciate this assertion, the numbers above shows that the gap
between the best and worst competitors is fast widening in terms of points
earned and goals scored in Europe, while in South Africa the inverse is
true.
-
What this means in relation to the other leagues is that the best team in
England (on the other extreme of the spectrum) has the ability to
consistently secure and win 4 out of 5 matches. However, the best team
in South Africa will struggle to win 2 out of every 3 games they play.
Synoptic arguments
Before we summarize the results above, it is important to emphasize the
hypothesis as described in this paper.
The hypothesis states thus:
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The South African PSL is indeed the toughest leagues in comparison to the English
Premiership, Spanish La liga and the Italian Serie A.
This means, there is a higher degree of difficulty in reaching the top (i.e. attaining
the championship) and constantly maintaining dominance in South African
football that those leagues that are considered the best in the world.
In his article titled “Which World Football League Is the Best of the Best’ by David
Harvey which was published in part on www.EzineArticles.com, the author
compares the three European leagues selected in our study in the context of his
subject.
Accordingly Harvey conducts a qualitative break down of is
perceptions of the leagues on the basis of players, marketing and style of play.
Thus contrasting them in an in-depth discussion which looks at what each league
does well and badly as compared to the next.
We would like to borrow, from his modus operandi and apply his logic in the
context of our subject/ hypothesis. To this end, since this paper only attempt to
make a statistical inference to the actual football played on the field, we will
draw from Harvey’s paper only to the extent of discussing players and style of
play.
Teams and Players
The results produced in the statistics above seem to suggest that the gap
between the best and the worst teams is far smaller in the South Africa PSL as
compared to the other three leagues.
In other words, there is very little that
separates the champion from the runners-up, or even the relegated team for
that matter. The reason for this phenomenon is that the concentration of talent
is far more evenly spread out amongst the teams in the PSL as compared to
England, Italy and Spain. Therefore, it is for that reason that the teams struggle to
sustain their dominance over the years.
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On the other hand, in the English Premiership (which sits on the opposite of the
spectrum in this analysis), it is safe to argue that 80% of the talent in the league
plies its trade in only 20% of teams representing the top 4. Namely, Manchester
United, Chelsea FC, Liverpool FC and Arsenal FC. It is for this reason that these
teams tend to achieve over 70% conversion on average points per game,
because the rest of the teams are just unable to compete on an equal footing.
This explains the fact that season after season the composition of the top 4
remains the same, because the teams are unevenly matched. This trend is just
as prevalent in the other two leagues examined in this study, although more so in
Italy than in Spain. However, every time the best team takes the field in South
Africa, they stand a chance to lose one game in every three (hence the 66%
conversion).
By the end of the 2008/2009 season, the goal difference of the champions in
each league stood thus:
Team
Super Sport United
Inter Milan FC
Manchester United
Barcelona FC
Country
Goal Difference
South Africa
23
Italy
38
England
44
Spain
70
The measurement on the average goal difference affirms that in South Africa the
gap between the goals scored forward vs. the goals scored against is fast
narrowing to an average of 8 goals in the top half. The goal difference table
above further illustrates that fact.
Looking at the above, the question begs, if
the rest of the league’s defenders are as good as Carles Puyol, how then was
Barcelona able to get away with a Goal Difference of 70 goals? The reality is the
bottom teams just cannot match the quality of the top teams in the European
Leagues. And unfortunately the tendency persists that when comparing South
Africa PSL players to the leagues, our players are constantly compared to the
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quality of the top four teams; which invariably represents 80% of the talent in the
league.
Style of play
The degree to which a league wins the hearts of the fans depends largely on the
style of play. The three European leagues differ distinctly as it is informed by the
method employed in the each country. One may prefers the systematic, highly
technical yet pedestrian paced Italian game. Or be it the fast and furious way of
the English game. Not forgetting the, Latin American laden flair of the Spanish
game. The bottom line is; the flowing attack countered by a cultured defensive
focus brand of South African football produces the only evidence of a high
degree of competitive intensity by far.
Detractors of the South African game continuously make reference to the
diminished rate of goals. Although statistical evidence presented above shows
quite clearly that the difference in goals is quite marginal as compared to the
other leagues.
In the PSL, teams tend to employ a far more defensive style of play as compared
to the teams in the European Leagues. The middle field is far more packed;
play-makers have less room. And therefore, the bottom end of the log is doing a
far better job at containing the teams in the top end rather than their European
counter parts. This should not come as a surprise given the fact that over half the
coaches who ply their trade in South Africa tend to have spent most of their
playing careers in defensive positions.
National team in perspective
A discussion of this nature would seem incomplete, without thrashing out the
above findings in relation to recent national team form (ranked 85th in the world).
However, it should be made clear that since the national teams and the teams
in the professional leagues are managed by separate and largely independent
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structures (i.e. the team owners and the football associations). The congruency
drawn in the entities identified above is, in our view, uncanny at best.
If the best leagues in the world produce the best national teams, then logic
dictates that England, Spain, Portugal and Netherlands should have at least
shown some measure of dominance at some point in the last eighty years. The
fact is this is not the case. In the last eighty years only 7 nations have actually
managed to win the world cup. And although England is one of them, their
campaigns have hardly lived up to this status since their Italia 1990 world cup
campaign. It is silly to think that in just 18 years of readmission to international
football a country such as South Africa is expected to be at the same level as
our Spanish, Portuguese and Dutch counter-parts.
So what are the issues with the South African national team, you ask?
Administrative naiveté is a term which sums up the current form of the national
team. A clear lack of strategic planning has led to 18 years of national coach
appointments who do not stay at the helm for periods longer than 2 years (16
coaches in to date). Under-defined organizational structures, systems, policies,
process and procedures are at the core of the country’s inability to establish itself
as a football powerhouse. All the while an exceptional league which operates
at the backdrop of this mayhem continues to produce under-utilized talent.
One can only hope that soon and very soon, with experience and political will
gained in the FA, a strategic plan will be established with a view long enough to
inform the institution of organizational structures, systems, policies, procedures
and targets. This plan is one around which all teams (from junior to senior ranks)
can be formulated, aligned and co-ordinated for the attainment of a common
goal.
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In conclusion
The idea to venture an effort to provide conclusive proof to this point was
conceived on the M1 north in traffic. The decision to carry on with this was
made with very little knowledge of the complexion of the findings. To me, all four
leagues are chock-a-block with everything that makes soccer the “beautiful
game”. Knowing very well that this contribution will be scrutinized with a cynical
eye, we can safely relish the fact that such a contribution was made by us. And
as people take the time to grasp the concept of evaluation shared in this paper,
one would hope that a new view will prevail as fans who have read this
contribution cast their eyes on the talent and skill, these four small collections of
teams produce.
Having said, statistics aside, when it is all said and done though the PSL is in the
top fifteen biggest leagues in the world; the money spent on marketing and
players in Europe eclipses anything that the PSL can ever amass. In spite of all
the stars, all the money, all the PR that comes with all that spot light; it is the PSL
that manages to go down to the wire season after season. It is the PSL that
manages to produce nail biting endings year after year, after year, after year. It
is the PSL supporter who has the privilege of thinking that it is the normal to see
the championship trophy delivered by helicopter, while in Europe that is unheard
off (because the championship is normally decided with plenty of matches to
spare).
For all the history, money and the players in these leagues, there is always
something to separate the PSL from the top of the tree. However statistically, the
evidence is clear.
In a perfect world, where all the superfluous embellishments
are removed, the PSL is the more difficult and most challenging league to
dominate of them all.
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References
Hardy, D. Which World Football League Is the Best of the Best published in
part on www.EzineArticles.com
Data source: www.soccerbot.com
Data source: www.PSL .co.za
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