Political Socialization,
Public Opinion, and
Polling
asic Tenants of American
olitical Culture
iberty/Freedom
People should be free to live their lives with minimal
governmental interference
quality
Political, legal, & of opportunity, but not economic equality
ndividualism
Responsibility for own decisions
emocracy
Consent of the governed
Majority rule, with minority rights
olitical Culture vs. Ideology
Most Americans share common beliefs in
he democratic foundation of government
culture) yet have differing opinions on the
proper role & scope of government
ideology)
olitical Socialization
Process through which an individual
acquires particular political orientations,
beliefs, and values
at factors influence political opinion
mation?
Family
#1 source for political identification
Between 60-70% of all children agree with
their parents upon reaching adulthood.
If one switches his/her party affiliation it usually
goes from Republican/Democrat to independent
hat factors influence political opinion
mation?
School/level of education
“Building good citizens”- civic education
reinforces views about participation
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Pledge of Allegiance
Volunteering
Civic pride is nation wide
Informed student-citizens are more likely to
participate/vote as adults
Voting patterns based on level of educational
attainment
hat factors influence political opinion
rmation?
Peer group/occupation
Increases in importance during teen years
Occupational influences
hat factors influence political opinion
mation?
Mass media
Impact of television
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Avg. American watches 30+ hours of TV per week
Alternative sources of information gathering- Internet,
radio, magazines, newspapers
Growing use of “alternative” news sourcesDaily Show, Colbert Report
Encouraging the youth voteRock the Vote, Vote or Die MTV sponsored campaigns
Short attention span-
What factors influence political opinion
ormation?
Religion
econd best predictor of voting behavior besides
arty identification
Represent large voting blocs:
Religious Right, Moral Majority (‘80s), Silent Majority (‘70s)
ifferences exist between religious affiliations
mpact of religion & politics:
Abortion, school prayer, aid to parochial schools,
Elections
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George W. Bush
hat factors influence political opinion
rmation?
Race and ethnicity
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Demographic group tendencies
hat factors influence political opinion
rmation?
Gender
Females tend to focus on social issues
while males key on economic policies
hat factors influence political opinion
rmation?
Age
Politicians focus on securing the elderly
vote important as they represent the most
consistent voting bloc
Tendency to become more conservative as
one ages
hat factors influence political opinion
rmation?
Impact of events
What one has experienced (Great
Depression, WWII, Vietnam, 9/11) and
the government’s response to it shapes
how one sees the “proper” role of
government in society
Do you remember what you were doing
when…
hat factors influence political opinion
rmation?
. Residence location
Beliefs/voting tendencies by region:
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Sunbelt states (Latino and elderly vote)
Solid South
Urban northeast
Western states
Midwest/rustbelt
ublic Opinion
What people think about an issue or set
of issues at any given point in time
orming political opinions
Ideologues vs. the masses
deologues view politics strictly on a
beral/conservative ideology and vote
ccordingly
orming political opinions
Ideologues vs. the masses
The masses filter information through the scope of:
Personal benefits
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“I” society, pocketbook voting, support issues benefiting
them
Political knowledge
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Increased political awareness increases participation
(Knowing the candidates and issues)
Cues from leaders
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Use the media to mold public opinion
y is government policy often at odds with public
opinion?
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The Framers did not try to create a government
that would from day to day follow the whims of
the people
Constitutional checks on public opinion:
Representative government
Federalism
Separation of powers & checks & balances
The Bill of Rights
An independent judiciary
Difficulty in amending the Constitution
Other checks such as staggered election cycles
hy is government policy often at odds with public
nion?
s not easy to know what the public thinks
lling has limits:
Polling error- survey, sample, analysis, coverage
Respondent knowledge of the issue(s)/event(s)
onetary Control Bill of 2003 example:
200 Cincinnati residents surveyed
% favored the bill, 25% did not, remaining unsure
here was no such thing as the Monetary Control Bill
hy is government policy often at odds with public
nion?
pinions of people who are active in and
owledgeable about politics, carry more
eight in crafting government policy decisions
government attends more to the views of the
litical elite (activists, interest groups, donors)
an the silent majority
What are necessary components
a valid public opinion poll?
Question wording- unbiased & unambiguous
Proper sampling
Random
Representative
Adequate sample size
Low margin of error
olling Results
id polls include the following:
The questions and sampling method
How the respondents were contacted
The number of respondents surveyed
Error rate (+/- 3% or less is acceptable)
What are necessary components
a valid public opinion poll?
Determining content and phrasing questions
ample- “If the government takes our guns
that we use to protect our families away
from us, only criminals will have guns and
we will all be in danger. Are you in favor of
placing your family in greater danger?
Yes/No”
What are necessary components
a valid public opinion poll?
Selecting the sample
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Determine your “universe”
Who do you want information from?
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Registered voters, ethnic group, age, gender, all
Americans…
What are necessary components
a valid public opinion poll?
Selecting the sample
pes of sampling:
a. Random- in practice nearly impossible to obtain a
rue sample (under/over representation)
b. Quota- draw sample based off known
emographic statistics, accurate but often
oversample the visible population
. Stratified- use of census data to divide the country
nto sampling regions.
Example- Random selection of counties and
metropolitan areas are taken to the total national
What are necessary components
a valid public opinion poll?
Conducting the poll
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#1 way still is the telephone
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Other methods: In-person interview, internet,
call-in method
ults of each… ex. Who answers the
phones? Elderly more likely to be home,
soap opera moms, cell v. landlines,
What are necessary components
a valid public opinion poll?
Analyze and report the data
ypes of political polls
Traditional public opinion poll- survey to gain the public’s
nput on a matter.
Tracking- continuous surveys to track the rise and fall of an
ssue/candidate. Reliability problems but decent measure
of trends.
Push- designed to plant disinformation about a candidate or
ssue in the minds of those being surveyed. Purpose is to
hape, rather than measure, public opinion.
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Poor questioning
Example- John McCain v. GW Bush 2000 SC primary
Exit- polls conducted at polling places on election day.
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Historically caused West Coast apathy
aults in public opinion polling
espondent Issues:
Ignorance on the issue(s)
Instability of views over time- impact of
events alter perceptions
aults in public opinion polling
ling Issues:
Sampling error- difference in opinion between
the actual universe and the sample taken
Limited respondent options & difficulty in
measuring intensity of respondents’ views Yes/No, Like/Dislike
A simple “yes” does not measure the intensity
of the respondent’s view of issues such as
abortion, the death penalty, etc.
Sensitivity to question wording- poor questions
lead to poor polling results (see example on
ow a pollster phrases a question
an alter the response
pic: Federal government housing
uestion 1: “The federal government should
e to it that all people have adequate
using.” (59% agreed)
uestion 2: “Do you believe that (insert
estion 1) or each person should provide for
s own housing.” (53% opposed fed housing)
uestion 3: Switched the order of question 2
0% opposed federal housing)
olls and Democracy
Advantages
ows public to express
nions to leaders
ables leaders to
plement public
eferences on key
ues
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Detriments
Transform leaders into
followers
Bandwagon effect- polls
manipulate public
opinion in elections &
policy
oncluding thoughts of public
pinion
What shapes public opinion, poll results or
people’s opinions?
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Do the polls drive public opinion (bandwagon effect), or
does public opinion drive the polls?
Democratic process based on informed citizenry
yet lack of public knowledge makes for misguided
government policy
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74% of population can name the Three Stooges
50% know the name given to the first ten Amendments
43% the three branches of government
25% can name their two senators