Holiday forecasts, consumer trends
and historical retail sales data from
the National Retail Federation
nr f.com/holidays
The National Retail Federation’s Holiday Survival Kit serves as a guide for reporters
and retailers, offering historical information on holiday sales, employment data and
consumer trends.
NRF experts will be available throughout the holiday season to discuss consumer trends,
economic data and a variety of other retail topics. To interview a retail expert for print or
broadcast, please contact:
press@nr f.com
(855) NRF-PRESS
OR
Kathy Grannis
(202) 626-8189
grannisk@nr f.com
Holiday trends and the latest survey data will be
posted regularly on NRF’s Holiday Headquarters at
nr f.com/ holidays.
For up-to-the-minute holiday news,
follow @ N R F n e w s on Twitter.
2
nr f.com/holidays
Table of Contents
CONTENTS
PAGE
I. Holiday Forecasts for 2014__________________________________4
1. Holiday Sales and Forecast__________________________________________4
2. A Look at Holidays Past_____________________________________________5
3. Holiday Sales by Select Sectors______________________________________6
4. Retail Employment and Seasonal Hiring_______________________________7
II. 2013 Wrap Up: Holiday Trends_____________________________8
1. 2013 Holiday Trends_______________________________________________8
2. When Americans Started Shopping in 2013____________________________9
3. Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Final Numbers for 2013_________________10
4. Online Holiday Retail Trends from 2013________________________________11
III. Frequently Asked Questions_______________________________12
IV. Tips for Navigating the Retail Insight Center:
Access More Data in 5 Easy Steps______________________14
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Holiday Forecasts for 2014
The holiday season, defined by NRF as sales in the months of November and December, is the biggest time of year
for retailers of all shapes and sizes. Retail sales during these two months can account for as much as 20-40% of a
retailer’s annual sales. This year, NRF estimates that holiday sales will increase 4.1% to $616.9 billion. Holiday sales
estimates are often viewed as a solid indication of the overall health of consumers’ financial stability — decreasing
during times of economic uncertainty and increasing during a thriving economy. The average increase in holiday
sales for the past 10 years is 2.9%.
HOLIDAY INDUSTRY SALES BY YEAR
Year
Holiday Retail
Sales
(in millions)
Holiday Sales Annual Retail Holiday Sales as
% Change Sales (in millions) a % of Industry
Sales
2014*$619,900
4.1% $3,194.318
19.2%
2013
$592,660
3.1%
$3,083,319 19.2%
2012
$574,937
2.9%
$2,980,372 19.3%
2011
$558,802
4.8%
$2,867,845 19.5%
2010
$533,118
5.3%
$2,727,112 19.5%
2009
$506,303
0.5%
$2,640,725 19.2%
2008
$503,805
-4.4%
$2,732,598 18.4%
2007
$527,046
2.8%
$2,732,598 18.4%
2006
$512,883
3.3%
$2,624,387 19.5%
2005
$496,332
6.2%
$2,492,997 19.9%
2004
$467,339
6.8%
$2,349,973 19.9%
* Projected
105
$
Billion
Expected
e-commerce
growth of
holiday
sales in 2014
Source: NRF, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data
Shop.org Online Holiday Forecast
Shop.org, NRF’s digital retail division, expects online holiday sales to
grow between 8 — 11% this year. Using expected sales in the months
of November and December and economic data derived from the
U.S. Department of Commerce, NRF’s chief economist expects online
retailers will see solid growth this holiday season.
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Historical Holiday Trends
Just how big is the holiday season in the
grand scheme of things?
Nearly one-fifth of the industry’s annual sales in
2013 — $3.2 trillion — came directly from the
months of November and December, making it the
top consumer spending event of the year.
Second to the holiday season is the back-to-school
and college season, which was estimated to reach
$74.5 billion this year.
The holiday season also accounts for more sales
than Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, Valentine’s Day,
Halloween, Easter and St. Patrick’s Day combined.
Here are some trends from holidays past:
2013: A shortened holiday calendar, an early Thanksgiving and an October government shutdown put the
2013 holiday season in the books as one of the most interesting in history. For the first time in 17 years,
holiday shoppers watched as Washington shut its doors for two weeks in October. During his annual holiday
forecast media call, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told listeners that the 3.9% forecast “was a very
realistic look at where we are in the current economy …”
2012: The economic picture going into the holiday season was much like it would end up being the year
after — uncertain. Government data showed a crosscurrent of indicators that hung in the balance of
Washington’s decision to avoid a “fiscal cliff.” NRF’s first holiday spending survey found that consumers
would spend close to what they’d spent the previous year, an average of $740 on gifts, décor, flowers, food
and more.
2011: In December, NRF announced it was revising its holiday forecast upward to 3.8% from the original
forecast of 2.8%. Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz commented, “Consumer spending this holiday season
has surpassed expectations, though many shoppers continue to stick to their budgets and buy only what
they need. Despite modest job and income growth, consumers have continuously proven they have the
capacity to spend.” Holiday sales in 2011 ended up increasing even more than expected, to 4.8%.
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Holiday Sales by Sector
From jewelry and sporting goods to apparel and electronics, holiday gifts run the
gamut. In 2013, electronics stores saw 23% of their total annual revenue come
during the months of November and December. The sector with the highest
percentage of sales that occur during the holiday season is jewelry stores at 28%.
Jewelry has the
highest % of sales
during the holiday season
28
%
Source: NRF, derived from U.S. Department of Commerce data
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Retail Employment and Seasonal Hiring
As retailers ready their stores for the crowds that typically accompany the holiday season, they also begin
preparing behind the scenes by hiring extra staff. These new hires are brought on to run the store, manage gift
wrap, stock new inventories and serve as customer service representatives. This holiday season, NRF predicts
retailers will hire an additional 725,000 — 800,000 seasonal employees. In addition to retailers’ seasonal
positions, retail indirectly creates many jobs throughout the holiday season for workers in transportation,
manufacturing and fulfillment.
Here’s a look at holiday hiring over the last 10 years:
HISTORICAL HOLIDAY HIRING
Holiday Employment (in thousands)
1000
900
800.00 *
800
700
600
679.98
768.30
688.38
684.43
636.57
660.27
671.70
563.02
500
400
368.76
300
263.82
200
100
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Projected
Source: NRF, derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics data
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2013 Holiday Trends and Consumer Research
Retail companies, news media and analysts commonly seek out consumer trend data from NRF for insights into
what to expect from shoppers during the holiday season. This is the 13th year NRF has partnered with Prosper
Insights & Analytics to provide this data.
Consumer Spending on Holiday Trimmings, Gifts and More
CONSUMER SPENDING
$500
$432.00
$400
$300
$200
$104.34
$100
$75.00
$53.65
$24.52
$26.65
Gifts for co-workers
Other gifts
$50
$29.14
$21.96
Flowers
Cards & postage
Candy and food
Total amount
spent per
person in 2013
Decorations
27
Gifts for friends
767
$
Gifts for family
$0
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF, 2013 Consumer Spending Survey
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When Does Holiday Shopping Begin?
The prevalence of early holiday deals put many eager shoppers in the spirit as early as September
last holiday season. Historically, four in 10 holiday shoppers began shopping for holiday gifts before
Halloween each year, meaning there are plenty of people shopping for holiday trimmings at the
same time they are picking out pumpkins.
WHEN PEOPLE SHOPPED
%
Before September..........................12.4%
September.......................................8.2%
October.........................................20.6%
November......................................38.8%
First 2 weeks of December...........16.0%
Last 2 weeks of December.............3.9%
Why are Americans
Shopping for the Winter
Holidays Earlier?
…Of those who shop before October:
With the economy still driving much of the
To spread out my gift shopping budget
60.3%
consumer spending conversation in retail,
Prices/promotions are too good to pass up
41.9%
NRF for the first time in 2013 asked holiday
To avoid traditional crowds associated with
shopping in November and December
46.5%
I don’t want to miss out on desired items (specific
gifts, ornaments, decorations, wrapping paper, etc.)
23.7%
shoppers about the reasons they shop
before Halloween. Ranging from a desire
to avoid holiday crowds to simply the fact
that they shop for the holiday season yearround, it is clear there’s a desire among
shoppers to get their hands on retailers’
early promotions.
Why do you begin shopping for the holidays
prior to October?
Habit16.5%
I tend to shop for the holiday season year-round
27.2%
To avoid the stress of last-minute shopping
44.2%
Shopping early gives me more time to really
enjoy/celebrate the holiday season
32.3%
I am using layaway services available now
6.9%
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF, 2013 Consumer Spending Survey
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Top Toys
While traditional toys still top the lists for boys and girls
each holiday season, many parents are saying electronics
such as iPads, apparel and pop culture items like Legos
are more popular gift choices for kids.
2013 Top Toy
for Boys:
Legos
2013 Top Toy
for Girls:
iPad/tablet
Black Friday and Cyber Monday: Final Numbers for 2013
According to NRF, 45 million holiday
shoppers turned up for retailers’
MILLIONS WHO SHOPPED BLACK FRIDAY WEEKEND
Thanksgiving openings in 2013, up
in 2012. Many shoppers stood in long
lines to be able to shop on Thanksgiving
28
night, leaving home as soon as the
pumpkin pie was put away — even
sooner for those who had a “must-have”
item they wanted to pick up. But when it
comes to the biggest shopping days of
the holiday season, Black Friday has not
lost any luster with bargain hunters: More
than 92 million shoppers shopped online
and in stores that day, making it the
Number of consumers (in millions)
significantly from the estimated 35 million
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
26.7%
3.5%
-8.3%
-11%
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
20
10
0
biggest shopping day of the year.
2013
2012
%=growth from 2012 to 2013
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF, 2013 Consumer Spending Survey
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Shopping Online on Black Friday
Savvy holiday shoppers know that the best deals of the holiday season aren’t only in stores. When it comes to
the biggest shopping weekend of the year, those with a keen eye for discounts made sure to check out what the
Internet had in store for them as well as what was in physical stores.
Did you or will you shop online….
Thursday, November 28 (Thanksgiving Day)
26.5%
Friday, November 29 (Black Friday)47.1%
Saturday, November 30
35.7%
Sunday, December 1
24.5%
Cyber Monday
Cyber Monday, a term coined by Shop.org in
2005, began after retailers noticed a trend
of people shopping online on the Monday
after Thanksgiving. Today, Cyber Monday is
viewed as the kickoff to the online holiday
shopping season, when shoppers flood
websites to take advantage of retailers’
online promotions. In 2013, 131 million
people said they planned to shop online
the Monday after Thanksgiving.
What’s more, 25 million holiday shoppers
said they would specifically use their mobile
device to shop online on Cyber Monday.
25
Million Americans
shopped with their
mobile device on
Cyber Monday in 2013
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics for NRF, 2013 Consumer Spending Survey
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is NRF’s prediction for holiday sales
growth this year?
In 2013, holiday sales increased 3.1% to $592
billion. By comparison, 2012’s increase was 2.9%.
On average, not including 2014’s estimate, holiday
sales have increased 2.9% for the last 10 years.
NRF’s holiday forecast is based on an economic
model using indicators such as housing data,
unemployment and previous monthly retail sales
reports from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
NRF’s holiday surveys, conducted by Prosper Insights
& Analytics, provide a snapshot of what consumers
say they plan to do for the holiday season. This is
the 13th holiday season that NRF has partnered with
Prosper to provide holiday data, making it possible to
identify year-over-year trends.
Why are these numbers different than what
you have previously reported?
How many extra jobs does the retail industry
create during the holiday season?
The Commerce Department continuously revises
retail sales data. NRF relies on the most recent
set of estimates from the government for all of its
forecasts and sales releases.
This year, NRF estimates that retailers will hire
between 725,000 and 800,000 seasonal employees,
compared with the actual 768,000 they hired
last holiday season. For historical holiday hiring
information, see page 7.
NRF is projecting 2014 holiday sales to increase
4.1% to 616.9 billion.
How much did holiday sales change
last year?
How big is the holiday season compared to
annual retail sales?
For some retailers, the holiday season can
represent as much as 20-40% of annual sales. In
2013, holiday sales represented 19% of total retail
industry sales.
Will NRF change its holiday forecast
throughout the course of the holiday season?
While NRF reserves the right to change its forecast
at any time, NRF rarely does so. The last time NRF
revised its holiday forecast was in 2011 when it
announced in December the group expected sales
to increase 3.8% after originally coming out in
October with a forecast of 2.8%. Sales that year
actually ended up increasing 5.3%.
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How do NRF’s surveys differ from its forecast?
What does NRF classify as the “winter holidays”?
NRF tallies total retail industry sales from November
and December — 61 days — to determine
holiday sales. Holidays during this period include
Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa.
This year there are 28 days between Thanksgiving
and Christmas. Last year an early Thanksgiving and a
shortened December left many companies with little
choice but to promote aggressively on the front and
back ends.
How does NRF define “retail industry sales”?
Retail industry sales include most traditional retail
sales categories such as discount stores, department
stores, grocers, specialty stores and non-store sales,
but exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations
and restaurants.
nr f.com/holidays
What is Shop.org’s prediction for online
holiday sales growth this year?
Shop.org projects online holiday sales to increase
between 8-11% to as much as $105 billion during
the months of November and December. While
not directly comparable, the U.S. Commerce
Department reported that final Q4 (OctoberDecember) 2013 increased 10% year-over-year.
What factors are used to calculate Shop.org’s
online holiday forecast?
at least October or November, they recognize that
many people like shopping early to spread out
spending. As a result, many retailers are putting
holiday merchandise on the shelves in September —
specifically decorations and greeting cards, which
many people buy months in advance.
Is Black Friday the busiest shopping day of
the year?
Shop.org’s estimates are based on data collected
by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the Federal
Reserve, the U.S. Census, the Conference Board
and NRF’s own calculations. These estimates
include personal income and spending, consumer
credit, consumer confidence and previous monthly
retail reports.
NRF does not monitor or track actual sales by day.
However, ShopperTrak, which counts foot traffic
at malls, reports that Black Friday is the busiest
shopping day of the year, followed by “Super
Saturday” and the Sunday before Christmas. NRF
research does find that over the entire holiday
weekend, beginning Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday
remains the busiest day with more than 131 million
unique shoppers.
What is Cyber Monday?
Why have retailers changed their return policies?
Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, is
the online retail equivalent of Black Friday. The term
was coined in 2005 by NRF’s Shop.org division
based on clear consumer behavior in 2003 and
2004. Retailers noticed that many consumers,
who were too busy to shop over the Thanksgiving
weekend or did not find what they were looking for,
shopped online that Monday to find bargains, often
from work. At that time, with dial-up modems or no
Internet connection at home, many consumers took
advantage of the high-speed Internet connections
available at work.
Some retailers make return policies more lenient
during the holiday season, understanding that there
may be a lag time between when a gift is purchased
and received. However, many retailers have also
begun to change their return policies to account for
an increase in return fraud. Last year, according to
NRF’s Return Fraud survey, retailers estimated they
would lose $2.9 billion due to return fraud during the
holiday season.
Why are many retailers putting holiday
merchandise on the shelves so early?
Each year about 40% of consumers begin their
holiday shopping before Halloween. While most
retailers do not begin holiday advertising until
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Are traditional retailers hurt when people shop
online?
Most retailers have no preference when it comes to
whether customers shop in stores, or online or even
through their smartphones — as long as consumers
shop with them. Retailers know their customers like
to shop in a variety of ways and they have adapted to
ensure customers can shop anytime, anywhere.
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Tips for Navigating the Retail Insight Center:
Access More Data in 5 Easy Steps
The Retail Insight Center is a comprehensive online resource that provides easy access to industry research from
government sources, NRF studies and historical and current consumer trend data from Prosper Insights & Analytics.
1. Go to: r e s e a r c h . n r f f o u n d a t i o n . c o m .
2. Register as a user –– it’s free. Charts are available without registering as a user; however,
users are unable to access all data that’s available, or customize charts, without a login.
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3. Go to a topic page. The Insight Center charts are organized by topic and subtopic. Use the
navigation at the top of the page to find what you’re looking for.
4. Customize. Users can select a date range, demographics, and even type of chart — such as a pie,
bar, or line graph — when the data is available.
To do this, click the down-arrows in the top left-hand side of the chart, next to “Options” — this will
display all of the options available for customizing this particular chart and data.
Once your options are set, click the “Update Chart”
button for your new chart to appear.
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5. Export or create a report. Users have the option to export charts, download the data or build a report
combining research from various parts of the center. Want to share the information with someone else or your
entire network? Users can send the page they’re viewing using integrated social media “share” buttons.
For more information on reading charts in the Insight Center, check out the Tools and Tips page.
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