Contents
Preface
xi
Acknowledgements
xiii
Foreword
xv
Foreword to the English second edition
Introduction: Perceptions of Weather and Climate and the Approach
of this Volume
Meteorology and/or climatology?
Perceptions of reality: schools of thought
Inadequacies in schools of thought, and associated problems
The conceptual impasse
The approach of this book
PART I
GENERAL CIRCULATION IN THE TROPOSPHERE
xvii
xxv
xxv
xxvi
xxx
xxxi
xxxiii
1
1 Radiation
1.1 Processes of radiation
1.2 The shape and motions of the Earth
1.3 Greenhouse effect, water effect
1.4 The geographical factor
1.5 Conclusion
3
3
7
8
12
13
Circulation in the lower Iayers of the troposphere
14
Bibliografische Informationen
http://d-nb.info/99624736X
digitalisiert durch
vi Contents
2
Circulation in high and mid-latitudes: MPHs
2.1 Perception of circulation in high and mid-latitudes
2.2 The existence of mobile anticyclones
2.3 Mobile Polar Anticyclones (Mobile Polar Highs (MPHs))
2.4 The polar thermal deficit
2.5 The birth of MPHs
2.6 MPH trajectories
2.7 The MPH-associated wind field
17
17
20
22
27
29
30
41
3 Anticyclonic agglutinations
3.1 A look at the so-called 'subtropical' high-pressure areas
3.2 Meridional transport by MPHs and the formation of an
anticyclonic agglutination (AA)
3.2.1 The role of relief
3.2.2 The formation of an anticyclonic agglutination
3.3 Oceanic anticyclonic agglutinations
3.3.1 Seasonal migration
3.3.2 Migration in latitude
3.3.3 Migration in longitude
3.4 Seasonal and/or temporary anticyclonic agglutinations in
mid-latitudes
3.4.1 Winter anticyclonic agglutinations
The 'Siberian' anticyclone
Duration of agglutinations
3.4.2 Summer anticyclonic agglutinations
High pressure over the Mediterranean
The heatwave and drought of summer 2003 in
Western Europe
The floods and the heatwave of summer 2007
3.5 Conclusion
45
45
48
48
53
55
56
56
56
57
58
58
60
63
63
64
68
70
4 Tropical circulation
4.1 A look at tropical circulation
4.2 Pressure and wind fields over the tropics
Trade circulation
Monsoon circulation
4.3 The trade wind
4.4 The trades
4.5 The monsoon
4.6 Monsoons
73
73
74
75
76
78
81
84
87
Circulation in the lower layers: conclusion
91
5
93
94
95
96
General circulation
5.1 General circulation: the evolution of ideas
5.1.1 The birth of the tri-cellular model of circulation
5.1.2 Improvements on the tri-cellular model of circulation
Contents vii
5.2
5.3
Insufficiencies in the representation of circulation
Units of circulation in the lower layers
5.3.1 The northern meteorological hemisphere
5.3.2 The southern meteorological hemisphere
5.3.3 Dynamical unity and climatic diversity . •
5.3.4 Fundamental questions
5.4 General circulation in the troposphere
5.4.1 The mean tropospheric picture
5.4.2 Seasonal Variation in circulation
5.4.3 Partitioning and stratification in circulation
5.5 Conclusion: general circulation is perfectly organised
PART II
DYNAMICS OF THE WEATHER: DISTURBANCES
97
99
101
102
103
104
105
105
109
111
115
117
6
Pluviogenesis
6.1 Precipitable water
6.2 Origin of an updraft
6.2.1 The thermal factor
6.2.2 The dynamical factor
6.3 Structural conditions
6.4 Conclusion
119
119
121
122
123
125
126
7
Dynamics of weather in polar and temperate regions: MPHs
7.1 Perception of the 'disturbed field' in high and mid-latitudes
7.1.1 The (impossible) control from above of phenomena
lower down
7.1.2 The FASTEX (Non-) Experiment
7.2 The MPH, the low-pressure corridor and the 'cyclone'
7.2.1 Organisation of the pressure and wind fields
7.2.2 The relationship between the MPH and the
low-pressure area
7.2.3 Wind field above an MPH
7.2.4 MPHs and the 'polar front'
7.3 Weather associated with an MPH
7.4 Interactions between MPHs
7.5 Dynamics of weather in North America
7.5.1 The west coast
7.5.2 East of the Rockies
7.6 Dynamics of weather in France
7.6.1 Relief and MPHs
7.6.2 Winter dynamics
7.6.3 Summer dynamics
7.7 Dynamics of weather in temperate and polar regions: conclusion . . .
129
129
130
132
136
137
139
143
145
145
148
151
154
155
159
159
162
164
169
viü Contents
8
MPHs at tropical margins
171
8.1 The temperate-tropical boundary
171
8.2 North and Central America
174
8.2.1 West of the Rockies
174
8.2.2 East of the Rockies
175
8.3 South America
177
8.3.1 West of the Andes
177
8.3.2 East of the Andes
178
8.4 The Mediterranean, North Africa, Arabia and the Indian Ocean . . 180
8.4.1 The Mediterranean
180
8.4.2 The Atlantic coastal area
181
8.4.3 North Africa
182
8.4.4 Arabia, Indian Ocean
185
8.5 Southern Africa
186
8.5.1 The southern coastal area
186
8.5.2 The Indian Ocean coastal area
187
8.6 Eastern Asia
188
8.7 Australia
190
8.7.1 "Migratory anticyclones"
190
8.7.2 The southern coastal area
192
8.8 Conclusion
193
9 Pulses in trades and monsoons
9.1 Trade winds and 'easterly waves'
9.2 The vertical structure of the trades
9.3 Pulses in the maritime trades
9.4 Pulses in the Continental trades
9.5 Pulses in the monsoon
9.6 Conclusion
195
195
197
198
204
206
208
10 The meteorological equator
10.1 The meteorological equator: the evolution of a concept
10.2 The inclined meteorological equator (IME)
10.2.1 The vertical structure of the IME
10.2.2 IME activity: squall lines (SL)
10.2.3 The active inclined meteorological equator
10.3 The vertical meteorological equator (VME)
10.3.1 The VME over the oceans
10.3.2 The ME over continents: IME and VME
10.4 Conclusion
209
209
213
213
214
219
221
221
223
225
11 Tropical cyclones
11.1 Cyclone structure and associated weather
11.2 Conditions for cyclogenesis
11.3 The trajectories of cyclones
227
227
229
234
Contents ix
11.4 The geography of tropical cyclones
11.4.1 The northern hemisphere
11.4.2 The southern hemisphere
11.5 Conclusion
PART III
DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE: CLIMATIC EVOLUTION
THE "GLOBAL CLIMATIC SYSTEM"
12 Causes of climatic variations
12.1 Orbital parameters of radiation
12.1.1 Variation of the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit
12.1.2 Variation of the angle of inclination of the Earth's
polar axis
12.1.3 Variation of the orientation of the polar axis
12.1.4 Orbital parameters and climatic evolution
12.2 Variations in solar activity
12.2.1 The sunspot cycle
12.2.2 Solar activity and climate
12.2.3 New approaches
12.3 Volcanism and climate
12.3.1 Volcanic emissions and ejecta: silicates and sulphates . . . .
12.3.2 Optical and radiative effects
12.3.3 Varying, deferred and non-uniform thermal effects
12.3.4 Climatic impact
12.3.5 Volcanism: conclusion
12.4 The global warming myth
12.4.1 Birth of a myth
12.4.2 The reliability of estimates of the concentration of CO 2 . .
12.4.3 Models and 'global' warming
12.4.4 How representative is the 'global' thermal curve?
12.4.5 Thermal evolution at the poles
12.5 Conclusion on the causes of climatic variations
13 Palaeoclimatic variations and modes of general circulation
13.1 Palaeoenvironments in Africa
13.1.1 Present-day dynamics of climate in Africa
13.1.2 The palaeoenvironment of Africa at the time of the Last
Glacial Maximum (18-15 kyr BP)
13.1.3 The palaeoenvironment of Africa at the time of the
Holocene Climatic Optimum (9-6 kyr BP)
13.1.4 Palaeometeorological interpretation
238
238
243
245
247
251
251
252
253
255
256
257
257
257
261
263
263
267
268
270
272
273
273
275
278
280
285
292
293
293
295
298
303
308
x
Contents
13.2 Variations in insolation and in modes of general circulation
310
13.2.1 Variations in insolation
310
13.2.2 Rapid general circulation (cold scenario)
312
13.2.3 Slow general circulation (warm scenario)
315
13.3 Glaciation and deglaciation
318
13.3.1 The onset of glaciation
318
13.3.2 Dynamical processes of glaciation
321
13.3.3 Antarctic glaciation
322
13.3.4 Glaciation in the north
324
13.4 Palaeocirculations over Africa
329
13.4.1 Circulation at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum . . . 329
13.4.2 Circulation at the time of the Holocene
Climatic Optimum
332
13.5 Conclusion
333
14 Recent climatic evolution
335
14.1 Dynamics of the great Sahel drought
336
14.1.1 Sahelian pluviogenesis
336
14.1.2 Presumed causes of the great drought
339
14.1.3 The southward shift of pluviogenic structures
341
14.2 The dynamics of Antarctica
344
14.2.1 The Western Antarctic
344
14.2.2 The recent dynamic of the Antarctic
347
14.3 Climatic evolution in the Arctic/North Atlantic/Europe/
Mediterranean space
351
14.3.1 Description of the North Atlantic aerological unit
351
14.3.2 The dynamic of the Arctic
354
14.3.3 Arctic ice
357
14.3.4 The evolution of weather in the North Atlantic space . . . 360
14.3.5 Increased pressure: a key element in climatic evolution. . . 364
14.3.6 Conclusion
368
14.4 Climatic evolution in the North Pacific space
369
14.4.1 The aerological dynamic of the North Pacific
369
14.4.2 Recent climatic evolution on the eastern side of the
North Pacific
372
14.5 El Nifio the 'star', and the real El Nino
376
14.5.1 The real Nino of the eastern Pacific
377
14.5.2 El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: ENSO
379
14.5.3 Cyclogenesis in the south-east Pacific
384
14.6 Conclusion on recent climatic evolution
386
15
General conclusion
391
Bibliography
397
Index
(Colour plate section positioned in the middle of the book.)
421