Marital Status population
projections, 2008-based
24 June 2010
Date: 24 June 2010
Coverage: England & Wales Theme: Population
1. Introduction
The 2008-based population projections by marital status for England & Wales cover both
legal marital status (excluding Civil Partnerships) and (opposite-sex) cohabitation from
which estimates of people in partnerships can be derived. These projections are fully
consistent with the 2008-based national population projections published by ONS in
October 2009.
2. Projected population by legal marital status
The proportion of the adult population of England & Wales who are married is projected to
decrease over the 25 year period from 2008 to 2033, falling from 49 per cent to 42 per
cent (Table 1). Over the same period, the proportion of adults who have never married is
projected to increase, rising from 35 per cent to 43 per cent. Due to the overall projected
increase in the adult population between 2008 and 2033, the numbers of both married and
never-married adults is projected to rise, but far more for those who have never married.
Over the period to 2033 there is projected to be a fall in the married population aged less
than 65, and an increase in the never married population. The proportion of men aged
between 45 and 64 who have never married is projected to more than double between
2008 and 2033, whilst the proportion of women of the same ages who have never married
is projected to triple.
The proportion of the adult population who are divorced is projected to remain unchanged
between 2008 and 2033 at 8 per cent for males and 10 per cent for females. This pattern,
however, varies by age group. Over the next 25 years the proportion of the population
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
Page 2
aged between 35 and 44 who are divorced is projected to halve, falling from 12 per cent in
2008 to 6 per cent in 2033. In contrast, over the same period, the proportion of the
population aged 65 and over who are divorced is projected to almost double, rising from 8
per cent in 2008 to 15 per cent in 2033. At ages 45 to 64, the proportion of the population
who are divorced will remain steady over the next decade and then start to fall.
Table 1: Projected population by legal marital status, age and sex, 2008 and 2033,
England and Wales
thousands
Total
2008
2033
Never married
2008
2033
Married
2008
Widowed
2033
Divorced
2008
2033
2008
2033
3,191
3,002
4,073
4,756
Persons
All 16+
44,228 52,572 15,298 22,662 21,666 22,153
16-24
6,602
6,755
6,397
6,619
196
132
2
0
8
4
25-34
7,034
7,954
4,499
5,875
2,289
1,947
9
4
237
129
35-44
8,127
8,495
2,333
3,932
4,796
4,033
37
17
962
513
45-54
7,187
7,883
1,037
2,800
4,828
4,160
114
52
1,208
871
55-64
6,451
6,923
493
1,768
4,649
3,950
337
159
971
1,046
65-74
4,558
6,866
263
1,093
3,099
4,116
711
475
484
1,182
75+
4,269
7,696
276
575
1,810
3,816
1,980
2,294
203
1,012
8,238 11,948 10,851 11,164
713
817
1,746
2,002
Males
All 16+
21,548 25,931
16-24
3,388
3,451
3,323
3,409
63
41
1
0
2
1
25-34
3,551
4,053
2,452
3,162
1,007
843
3
1
90
47
35-44
4,038
4,323
1,289
2,110
2,333
1,986
10
5
407
222
45-54
3,551
3,994
601
1,473
2,389
2,116
29
16
532
389
55-64
3,165
3,402
305
904
2,345
1,994
84
46
430
458
65-74
2,171
3,283
152
572
1,650
2,095
160
128
208
488
75+
1,684
3,424
116
317
1,064
2,090
427
621
77
396
7,060 10,713 10,815 10,989
2,477
2,184
2,327
2,754
Females
All 16+
22,679 26,641
16-24
3,213
3,305
3,074
3,210
133
91
1
0
6
3
25-34
3,483
3,901
2,047
2,713
1,282
1,104
6
3
147
82
35-44
4,090
4,172
1,044
1,822
2,463
2,047
27
12
555
291
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45-54
3,636
3,889
436
1,327
2,438
2,044
85
37
676
481
55-64
3,286
3,520
188
863
2,303
1,956
253
113
541
588
65-74
2,387
3,583
111
521
1,450
2,021
551
347
275
693
75+
2,586
4,272
160
258
746
1,726
1,553
1,672
126
616
The projections are affected by other demographic factors as well as trends in marriage
and divorce. For example, as mortality continues to improve, particularly at older ages, the
proportion of both sexes who are widowed reduces. The proportion of women aged 75 and
over who are widowed is projected to fall from 60 per cent in 2008 to 39 per cent in 2033,
while the proportion of men aged 75 and over who are widowed falls from 25 per cent to
18 per cent. The proportion of males who are widowed is lower, as might be expected due
to higher female life expectancy in combination with the age difference between men and
women at marriage.
The projected change in the composition of the population by legal marital status is shown
in the pyramids for 2008 and 2033 in Figure 1. Comparing these pyramids shows how
both the size and average age of the population as a whole is projected to increase. It also
shows that the number remaining never married is projected to stay high at younger ages,
and to increase at older ages, with a corresponding reduction in the proportion married.
The increase in the proportion divorced at age 65 and over can also be seen.
Figure 1: Population by age, sex and legal marital status, England & Wales
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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2033
2008
85
85
75
65
65
55
55
45
Females
Males
Females
Age (yrs)
Age (yrs)
Males
75
45
35
35
25
25
15
15
500 400 300 200 100
0
100 200 300 400 500
500 400 300 200 100
Population (thousands)
Never Married
Married
Widowed
0
100 200 300 400 500
Population (thousands)
Divorced
Never Married
Married
Widowed
Divorced
3. Projected numbers of cohabiting couples
The number of cohabiting couples is projected to rise from 2.3 million in 2008 to 3.8 million
in 2033 (Table 2). The proportion of those cohabiting who have never previously married
is projected to rise from 74 per cent to 87 per cent.
The number of adults cohabiting at ages 45 to 64 is projected to more than double
between 2008 and 2033, from 0.9 million to 2.2 million, whilst the number aged 65 or more
is projected to quadruple from 130,000 to almost 600,000. Thus, whereas in 2008 only 23
per cent of male cohabitants and 19 per cent of female cohabitants were aged 45 or more,
by 2033, these proportions are projected to rise to 37 per cent for males and 33 per cent
for females.
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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Table 2: Population cohabiting by age, sex and legal marital status, 2008 and 2033,
England and Wales
thousands
Total
2008
2033
Never
Married-
married
separated
2008
Widowed
Divorced
2033
2008
2033
2008
2033
2008
2033
4,680 7,587 3,452 6,568
106
93
83
51 1,039
876
787
1
1
0
0
4
2
25-34
1,765 2,240 1,669 2,183
16
13
1
1
80
44
35-44
1,165 1,756
782 1,540
40
34
7
3
336
179
45-54
579 1,329
205 1,059
29
25
13
6
333
239
55-64
306
880
53
635
14
12
23
11
215
222
65+
132
591
16
363
5
7
39
30
72
190
2,340 3,793 1,702 3,238
65
57
30
22
543
476
281
0
0
0
0
2
1
8
7
1
0
34
18
Persons
All 16+
16-24
732
790
727
Males
All 16+
16-24
267
25-34
879 1,093
836 1,068
35-44
628
914
436
804
24
20
2
1
165
89
45-54
319
701
123
557
18
16
3
2
175
127
55-64
171
468
33
332
10
8
8
4
120
123
76
336
10
195
4
6
16
15
46
119
2,340 3,793 1,750 3,330
41
35
53
28
497
400
507
1
1
0
0
2
1
8
7
1
0
45
25
65+
282
264
Females
All 16+
16-24
466
25-34
886 1,147
833 1,115
35-44
537
842
346
736
16
13
5
2
171
90
45-54
260
628
82
502
11
10
10
4
157
113
55-64
135
413
20
303
4
4
15
7
95
100
56
255
6
168
1
1
22
15
26
71
65+
508
463
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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The projected cohabitation trends are shown in the population pyramids for 2008 and 2033
in Figure 2. These pyramids illustrate the projected increase and ageing of the cohabiting
population over the next 25 years.
Figure 2: Population cohabiting by age, sex and legal marital status, 2008 and 2033,
England and Wales
2033
2008
85
85
75
75
Males
Females
65
Age (yrs)
65
Age (yrs)
Males
Females
55
45
55
45
35
35
25
25
15
15
150 120
90
60
30
0
30
60
90
120 150
Population (thousands)
Never Married
Divorced, separated and widowed
150 120
90
60
30
0
30
60
90
120 150
Population (thousands)
Never Married
Divorced, separated and widowed
4. Partnerships
The proportion of adults who are either legally married or cohabiting is projected to fall
over the next 25 years, from 61 per cent in 2008 to 57 per cent in 2033 for males, and from
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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58 per cent to 55 per cent for females (Table 3). At almost all ages, the proportion of
adults living with an opposite-sex partner is projected to fall, whilst the proportion not living
with a partner is projected to rise. The only exception to this is women aged 65 and over,
where the proportion who are either married or cohabiting is projected to rise from 45 per
cent in 2008 to 51 per cent in 2033.
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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Table 3: Projected population by partnership status, age and sex, 2008 and 2033,
England and Wales
thousands
Unpartnered 2
Total
2008
2033
Married
2008
1
2033
Cohabiting
2008
1
2033
Unpartnered 2
widowed or
never married
divorced
2008
2033
2008
2033
Persons
All 16 +
44,228 52,572 21,560 22,060
4,680
7,587 11,846 16,094
6,141
6,831
16-29
10,221 10,821
996
758
1,726
2,003
7,444
8,034
55
26
30-44
11,542 12,383
6,228
5,306
1,936
2,783
2,607
3,882
772
413
45-64
13,638 14,806
9,433
8,073
886
2,210
1,272
2,873
2,047
1,650
65 +
8,827 14,562
4,904
7,924
132
591
524
1,304
3,267
4,743
21,548 25,931 10,786 11,107
2,340
3,793
6,536
8,710
1,887
2,321
Men
All 16 +
16-29
5,225
5,522
389
287
742
846
4,077
4,381
17
7
30-44
5,752
6,305
2,981
2,555
1,031
1,443
1,450
2,148
290
160
45-64
6,716
7,397
4,707
4,086
491
1,169
750
1,488
769
654
65 +
3,855
6,707
2,709
4,178
76
336
259
694
811
1,500
22,679 26,641 10,774 10,954
2,340
3,793
5,310
7,384
4,255
4,510
Women
All 16 +
16-29
4,995
5,299
607
470
984
1,157
3,367
3,654
38
18
30-44
5,790
6,078
3,247
2,751
905
1,340
1,157
1,734
482
253
45-64
6,921
7,409
4,726
3,987
395
1,041
522
1,385
1,279
996
65 +
4,972
7,855
2,195
3,746
56
255
265
611
2,457
3,243
Notes:
1. People who are separated and cohabiting are included in the cohabiting category, and excluded from the
married category, in this table. The married category will include people who are separated but not
cohabiting; projections are not available for this group
2. Not living with an opposite-sex partner
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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5. Assumptions underlying the 2008-based marital status projections
The 2008-based marital status projections for England & Wales are based on the
estimated population by legal marital status at the middle of 2008 and a set of trend-based
assumptions about future rates of marriage, divorce and cohabitation.
Marriage:
The projections assume that:
•
first marriage rates for persons aged under 35 will continue to fall until 2018 and then
remain constant, with rates at older ages remaining fairly stable throughout the
projection period
•
remarriage rates for divorced men aged under 55 and divorced women aged under 50
will continue to fall until 2018 and then remain constant, with rates at older ages
remaining stable
•
remarriage rates for widowed persons will remain at current levels throughout the
projection period, except for women aged 50 to 64 for whom rates will increase slightly
between 2008 and 2018.
Divorce:
The projections assume that:
•
divorce rates for persons aged under 45 will continue to fall until 2018 and then remain
constant
•
divorce rates for persons aged 45 and over will rise slightly or remain constant at
recent levels.
Since the 2006-based marital status projections were produced, divorce rates have
continued to fall. Therefore the assumed long-term divorce rates in the 2008-based
marital status projections are lower than in the 2006-based projections.
Cohabitation:
The projections assume that:
•
the proportion of never-married persons cohabiting will remain constant at current
levels at ages under 35 for men and 33 for women
•
at older ages, the proportion of never-married persons cohabiting will remain constant
for each cohort, so that, for example, the proportion of never-married men aged 35
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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cohabiting in 2008 will be the same as the proportion of never-married men aged 36
cohabiting in 2009, and so on
•
the proportions of divorced, separated and widowed persons cohabiting will remain
constant at current levels for each age group.
6. Variant population projections
Projections are uncertain and become increasingly so the further they are carried forward
in time. Inevitably, actual trends in marriage, divorce and cohabitation will differ, to a
greater or lesser extent, from the assumptions outlined above. To give an indication of this
underlying uncertainty, variant projections have been produced in addition to the principal
(or central) projections. These variant projections are based on alternative assumptions
about future levels of marriage, divorce and cohabitation. All of the variant projections are
constrained to the 2008-based principal population projections for England and Wales.
The variant projections relating to legal marital status are summarised in Table 4. In these
variants, marriage and divorce rates are applied which gradually diverge from those
assumed in the principal projections until, from 2023 onwards, assumed first marriage and
divorce rates differ by +/- 15 per cent from the principal projections and assumed
remarriage rates differ by +/- 10 per cent.
Table 4: Comparison of marriage and divorce variants, 2008 and 2033,
England and Wales
thousands
Population aged 16 and over
Never
Total
married
Married
Widowed Divorced
44,228
15,298
21,666
3,191
4,073
Principal
52,572
22,662
22,153
3,002
4,756
High marriage
52,572
21,751
23,083
3,005
4,734
Low marriage
52,572
23,636
21,166
2,997
4,773
High divorce
52,572
22,664
21,818
2,990
5,100
Low divorce
52,572
22,660
22,496
3,013
4,404
2008
Base estimate
2033
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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The variant projections relating to cohabitation are summarised in Table 5. These variants
allow for some uncertainty in the base estimates of cohabitation by varying the initial
proportions cohabiting by +/- 2.5 per cent. These initial proportions are then assumed to
diverge further from the assumed proportions cohabiting in the principal projection, so that
from 2023 onwards they differ by +/- 20 per cent for never-married persons and +/- 10 per
cent for previously-married persons.
Table 5: Comparison of cohabitation variants, 2008 to 2033, England and Wales
thousands
Persons
All
cohabiting
Never
couples
married
Separated Widowed Divorced
Principal projection
2008
2,340
3,452
106
83
1,039
2033
3,793
6,568
93
51
876
2008
2,399
3,538
109
85
1,065
2033
4,463
7,881
95
52
898
2008
2,282
3,366
103
80
1,013
2033
3,124
5,254
90
50
854
High cohabitation variant
Low cohabitation variant
7. Data and further information
Full results of the 2008-based marital status population projections for England and Wales,
together with further details on the methodology and underlying assumptions, are available
at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=14491
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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Background Notes
1. Marital status projections for England & Wales are produced periodically. These marital status
projections are based upon the mid-2008 marital status estimates, including marriages abroad,
released by ONS in November 2009 (www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15107) and
are consistent with the 2008-based national population projections for England & Wales (see
Background Note 2). The previous set of marital status projections was 2006-based and was
published in March 2009.
2. ONS produces national population projections (by age and sex) for the United Kingdom and its
constituent countries in consultation with the devolved administrations. Information on the
2008-based national projections published by ONS in October 2009 is available at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=8519
3. The mid-2008 base year marital status estimates for this projection have been adjusted to be
consistent by age and sex with the mid-2008 population base used in the latest national population
projections. This projections base reflects the indicative results of phase 1 of the Migration Statistics
Improvement Programme (MSIP). The mid-2008 population estimates were subsequently revised on
13th May 2010 with the final changes from phase 1 of the MSIP. These projections do not take
account of these final phase 1 changes. Revised mid-2002 to mid-2008 marital status estimates will
be released in winter 2010.
4. These are the second set of marital status projections to include an allowance for marriages taking
place abroad. Published ONS statistics on marriages relate only to marriages taking place in
England & Wales; they
•
exclude marriages occurring outside England & Wales involving England & Wales’ residents, but
•
include any marriages taking place in England & Wales involving persons who are usually
resident outside England and Wales.
There are no legal requirements for marriages of persons usually resident in England and Wales that
take place outside England and Wales to be registered by the General Register Office.
5. The projections of the population cohabiting are based on new cohabitation estimates for mid-2008.
These are consistent with the published legal marital status estimates rather than the adjusted base
estimates as used for the legal marital status projections (see Background Note 3). However, the
difference between the estimates used and those recalculated using the adjusted base is very small.
6. The cohabitation estimates and projections produced by ONS relate to opposite-sex co-residential
cohabiting adults and exclude same-sex cohabiting couples. This is because estimates of the samesex couple population are not reliable at the level of detail required by the current methodology. Any
estimate will also be affected by response errors; for example, surveys such as the Labour Force
Survey and Annual Population Survey only collect information spontaneously volunteered by samesex couples.
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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7. Projections are uncertain and become increasingly so the further they are carried forward. In addition
to the principal (central) projection, variant projections are published today based on alternative, but
still plausible, assumptions of future marriage, divorce and cohabitation levels.
8. Further details of the marital status projections are available at
www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14491 .
9. A summary quality report for marital status population projections will be published soon and will be
available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/about-statistics/methodology-and-quality/quality/qual-infoeconomic-social-and-bus-stats/quality-reports-for-social-statistics/index.html. This report will
describe in detail the intended uses of the statistics presented in this publication, their general quality
and the methods used to produce them.
10. All figures presented in the tables in this release have been rounded independently, so component
figures may not add exactly to totals.
11. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the media office.
12. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics
Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet
customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2010.
Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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Statistical Bulletin | Statistical Bulletin: Marital status population projections, 2008-based |
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