Market Analysis – Peter Mayer

Expansion
March 17, 2016
Agenda
• Market Expansion Opportunities
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Who is our current target audience?
What can we do with an increased budget?
Where do we reach our target audience?
What did we find?
What tools will we use to measure success?
• Audience Segments
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Where is the opportunity?
What audience segments should we pursue?
• Driving Midweek Visitation
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Who is traveling midweek?
What else can we do to motivate midweek travelers?
Where We are Today
• Influx of hotel rooms
• Occupancy momentum
• Seasonal and midweek gaps
• Increased marketing budget
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Objectives
• Increase demand across inventory spectrum
• Increase overnight visitation
• Extend visitors’ length of stay
• Drive midweek visitation
• Convert daytrips to overnight
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Key Questions
• What are the best opportunities for expansion?
• How can we maximize these opportunities?
• How can we address market concerns?
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Downtown compression
Convert day trips
Midweek occupancy
• What tools will we have in place to measure success?
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Market Expansion Opportunities
Who is our current target
audience?
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Experiential Traveler
• Adults 25-64, Median HHI: $75K, slightly skewing
women
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Primary: Experiential Traveler
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Wants to explore and learn about new things
Frequently chooses active vacations with lots to do
Intends to travel in the next year
Traveled 3+ round trips in past 12 months
Secondary: Experiential Traveler/Foodie
• Considers food an experience
• Plans their travel destinations around cuisine
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Meet Gail: Persona Dashboard
SOURCE: MRI 2013 Doublebase Study - Index vs. all U.S. travelers
Sources: MRI 2013 Doublebase Study - Index vs. all U.S. Travelers; Peter Mayer analysis.
©2014
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©2014
Sources: MRI 2013 Doublebase Study - Index vs. all U.S. Travelers; Peter Mayer analysis.
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What can we do with an
increased budget?
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A look at 2015-2016
TV
Atlanta
Raleigh
Charlotte
Charleston
Columbia
Greensboro
Nashville
Knoxville
Cincinnati/Dayton
D.C.
Jacksonville
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
West Palm Beach
Orlando
Tampa
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Digital
Media
Digital
Radio
Digital
OOH
OOH
Print
Where Are We Going?
TV
Atlanta
Raleigh
Charlotte
Charleston
Columbia
Greensboro
Nashville
Knoxville
Cincinnati/Dayton
D.C.
Jacksonville
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
West Palm Beach
Orlando
Tampa
Wilmington
Chattanooga
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(FY16-17 Media)
Digital
Media
Digital
Radio
Digital
OOH
OOH
Print
What do we get with an increased budget?
• Reach new markets
• Enhance broadcast coverage in key markets
• Increase online presence
• Utilize cross-platform mediums
• Add midweek and day trip traveler targeting
• Establish niche segment targeting campaign
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Additional Broadcast
• Use impactful media to increase presence in core and opportunity
markets
• Increase core markets
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Build on strategy from Spring 2016, increase in Atlanta and Raleigh
Increase Charleston’s budgets to top-tier levels
Expand into D.C.
• Introduce the market to Asheville via high impact, cross platform
media
• High-profile video distribution (e.g., TV, movie theater)
• Transit takeovers
• 360 digital focus on tablet/mobile targeting
• Local lifestyle magazines
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Return to Florida
• Connect with core audiences in key Florida markets via platforms that
are relevant to lifestyle
• Use video to inspire travel, maximizing impact with a mix of
placements:
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Invest in high-profile broadcast in high potential markets
Use online video, movie theater and/or addressable/connected TV
• Establish print partnerships that allow us to continue the conversation
beyond the pages of a magazine
• Layer in digital advertising
• Partner with CVB to create custom content and itineraries
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Test Two New Markets
• Add Wilmington to core market list
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Digital, radio
• Chattanooga
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Digital, radio
Where do we reach them?
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Process & Opportunity
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Market Evaluation | 205 Markets in MRI
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Market size
Target audience composition
Combine with other data sources
• Propensity to travel
• Web interest per person
• Revenue per capita
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Market Evaluation | 210 Markets in Google Analytics
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Site activity
• Time on site
• Pages visited
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Click “Book Now” buttons
Atlanta, Raleigh and Charlotte are top markets with about 8-9% of
bookings each
Market Evaluation | Google Data
Web Searches
Accessibility
• Distance
• # of searches
• Times to drive/fly
• % looking for popular attractions
• # of non-stops
• Propensity of markets to consider
• Costs for flights
Asheville
• Searches per capita
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Market Evaluation | ADARA Data
• Limited lodging metrics by market
• ADARA’s technology sits on top of OTAs, hotels and some homestay sites
• Peter Mayer estimates they track about 16% of all Buncombe County bookings
• The data provided correlates with other sources; however, it should be used in relative terms
• Total Search/Bookings
• Length of Stay
• ADR
• Advance Purchases
• Total Nights
• Estimated Booking Value
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Market Insights
• Every market has its strengths and weaknesses
• Data trends repeat themselves across similar markets
• Some markets have more favorable demographics than our core
markets
• Close markets drive most bookings
• Larger/distant markets drive sizable bookings
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Convert at lower rates
Stay longer and spend more per night
• A few surprise markets do exceptionally well without marketing
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Market Evaluation | Grouped Markets with Shared Characteristics
• Distance, Size, Web Searches, Analytics, etc.
CORE MARKETS
SURPRISING WINS
FLORIDA MARKETS
LARGE MARKETS
MARKETS TO WATCH
Charlotte
Wilmington
West Palm Beach
Boston
Indianapolis
Raleigh/Durham
Tri-Cities
Jacksonville
Cleveland
Dayton
Charleston
Chattanooga
Orlando
Dallas/Ft. Worth
Richmond/Petersburg
Knoxville
Tampa
Chicago
Louisville
Atlanta
Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
D.C.
Norfolk/Portsmouth
Columbia
Philadelphia
Greensboro
Detroit
Nashville
Houston
Cincinnati
New York City
Los Angeles
San Francisco
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Market Selection | Grouped Markets with Shared Characteristics
Market
Sources
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Gail
Residents
Index
(000)
MRI
Rachel
Index
Distanc
Airlift
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Google
AVL
Avg. LOSAvg. AP ADR (USD) Total Nights
ADARA
Est. Booking
Value
Asheville
Searches
% Searches Web
per Capita Session
Google
"Book Now"
Conversion Rate
Analytics
CORE MARKETS
Charlotte
Raleigh/Durham
Charleston
Knoxville
Atlanta
Columbia
Greensboro
Nashville
Cincinnati
SURPRISING WINS
Wilmington
Tri-Cities
Chattanooga
FLORIDA
MARKETS
West Palm Beach
Jacksonville
Orlando
Tampa
Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
South Florida
MARKETS TO
WATCH
Indianapolis
Dayton
Richmond/Petersburg
Louisville
Norfolk/Portsmouth
LARGE MARKETS
Chicago
D.C.
Boston
Cleveland
Dallas/Ft. Worth
Philadelphia
Detroit
Houston
New York City
Los Angeles
San Francisco
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Favorable
Neutral
Not Favorable
Comparisons | Demographics
Favorable
Neutral
Not Favorable
• Except for Atlanta, core markets are composed of small to medium sized markets
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These markets under-index for our core Gail, but fair better for Rachel
Markets perform well because of their distance and our continued marketing efforts
• Larger markets have more potential and favorable demographics
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Chicago and San Francisco do well for both audiences
D.C. does exceptionally well for Rachel
Comparisons | Accessibility
Favorable
Neutral
Not Favorable
• Core markets are relatively close
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Atlanta and Charlotte have significant airlift at relatively low cost
• Florida markets are a bit further but have increasing airlift via Allegiant
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Creates unique opportunity for drive and/or fly market
• D.C. and Chicago are the only large markets with airlift
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D.C. flights are new/seasonal, and it is also a drive market
Historical Performance
• Distance, Size, Web Searches, Analytics, etc.
• Nearby/core markets produce
volume but visitors rarely stay
over two nights
• Distant markets produce longer
stays and higher ADR
• South Florida markets rival
Asheville’s top three feeder markets
Favorable
Neutral
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Not Favorable
Media Cost
• Market Sizing/Past Spending/Relative Media Cost
• Nearby/core market are relatively
inexpensive
• Distant markets cost more in actual
dollars and on a relative basis
• Peter Mayer’s analysis focused on
markets that had better metrics and
are more media efficient than
Asheville’s major markets
Favorable
Neutral
Not Favorable
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What did we find?
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Top Markets Keep Getting Stronger
1. Charlotte
2. Atlanta
3. Raleigh/Durham
• All with double digit growth
• Atlanta is the fastest growth market
• Growth is out-clipping total market growth
• Each contributes ~9-10% of hotel revenue
• Key factors are proximity and ongoing marketing efforts
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Opportunity to Optimize Markets
• Distance and marketing performance are key drivers
• Of nine current markets, eight are
the top performing
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Most receptive markets
• Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham and Charleston
• Meaning they convert at a higher rate
• Cincinnati is least performing
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Tests are being conducted
• Additional research/tests are needed to determine relative
impact of distance and marketing performance
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Surprising Wins
• Both markets are relatively close
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Wilmington
Chattanooga
• Strong performance without marketing support
• Both should have high awareness
• Wilmington scores the highest
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Performance resembles that of Charleston
Despite further distance
Best composition of Gails
Promising Major Markets
East Coast Markets and Chicago drive sizeable bookings
• New York City, D.C. & Chicago total ~37% of top three core markets
• These visitors tend to stay longer and spend more on hotels
• Chicago and D.C. show most promise
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Target audience composition
Audience size
Increasing airlift
Relative drive times
• Candidates for market expansion
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Promising Major Markets
D.C. Wins
Chicago Wins
 Population
 # of Rachels
 # of Gails
 Distance
 Airlift
 Web Interest
 Average Length of Stay
 Bookings
 Relative Ad Cost
 Revenue per Person
• D.C.’s relative distance and extremely high composition of Rachel's translate in a
natural propensity to visit Asheville
• Due to its market size and potential, Peter Mayer recommends D.C. as the next market
to include in a 360-degree marketing campaign
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Florida Markets Prime for Core Audience
• Combined, these markets show strong potential
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Highest composition of Gails
Flight and drive markets – new flights added
Longer stays, spend more per night often travel midweek
Favorable
Neutral
Not Favorable
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Recap
• Shift core markets strategies
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Increase broadcast
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Atlanta, Raleigh, Charleston
Shift to digital opportunities
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Knoxville, Greensboro, Columbia
Charlotte – maintain broadcast, invest more heavily in digital
• Market Expansion
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Sustained 360 for D.C.
Test various strategies
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Reach Gails in Florida
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Wilmington – opportunistic digital and radio
Chattanooga – opportunistic digital and radio
Print, broadcast/video, digital
What tools will we use to
measure success?
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Success Metrics
• Monthly reports
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Search trends
Web metrics
Online conversions
• New Arrivalist partnership
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