Project PlanShrinking
Shrinkage profile of Kaiserslautern
Background
Kaiserslautern is a city located within the district of Kaiserslautern in the German state
Rhineland-Palatinate. The city’s origins reach back to the 9th century. However, the city’s
population growth becomes significant after 1860, when industrialization brought new jobs in
the manufacturing of textile, machines and metal processing (Statistisches Landesamt
Rheinland-Pfalz 2012a). Today Kaiserslautern’s economy is much more diversified with a
broad range of public and private R&D facilities, manufacturing as well as service and retail.
In 2011 the city had 99.790 inhabitants. On the first look and compared to the other cities,
like Flint, Youngstown and Zwickau, shrinkage in Kaiserslautern has never been a severe
problem.
Rhineland-Palatinate/
Germany
Kaiserslautern County/
Rhineland-Palatinate
Kaiserslautern City/
Kaiserslautern County
On the table and in the graph below one can see the development of population.
Beginning from the 1850’s up until 1939 the population grew at modest pace carried by the
manufacturing sector. Companies from different branches like textile, iron casting and
mechanical engineering were leading the economic development in Kaiserslautern. During
the 2nd world war the city was bombed several times leading to a loss of population and the
destruction of industrial facilities. Only a few years later, after the end of the war, these
facilities were rebuild and the city’s population started to increase again. The return of
refugees and the deployment of a U.S. garrison led to a steep increase in inhabitants during
the 1950’s. Moreover, the manufacturing industries recovered. For example, Adam Opel AG
(since 1929 part of General Motors) started production in their Kaiserslautern plant in 1966.
Like in other cities with a focus on manufacturing, e.g. Flint and Youngstown, structural
changes started to take effect during the 1970’s also enhanced by the oil crisis. In short
succession several big employers went bankrupt or relocated their plants to other areas,
mainly in South and Eastern Europe. Fortunately the city’s University was founded right in
this period of economic change and created new jobs. Although this did not help workers
who lost their manufacturing job, it helped to stabilize the spending capacity and made the
transition to a more service based economy easier. Another major factor for employment in
the city as well as in the region is the US military presence in the US Airbase Ramstein.
During the 1980’s there were more than 20.000 people employed by the US military forces
(IHK 2010, 29). Today there are still around 5.500 people working with the US Forces.
However, in 1991 this number was at 8.300 and with the latest cutbacks in the US military
budget it is likely that there are further reductions of employees (WFK 2011, p. 28).
The current unemployment rate of 5,4% is slightly above the state average (5,2%) and little
below the national average with 5,8% (Statistik Arbeitsagentur September 2014).
Although the employment in manufacturing has continuously decreased over the past 40
years the overall numbers of jobs is relatively stable as one can see in Fig. 1. The efforts
made in adapting the local economy to the structural changes imposed by the globalization
and liberalization of markets have been to some part successful in Kaiserslautern. Despite
the strong dependency on manufacturing industries the economic structure was not based
on one specific branch and therefore changes came more gradually than in other cities,
giving politicians and economic stakeholders time to adapt.
Figure 1: Employment by sectors
Employment by sector
110.000
100.000
90.000
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
Total
Service
Manufacturing
1974
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Agriculture, Forestry, Mining
Source: Wirtschaftsförderungsgesellschaft Stadt und Land Kaiserslautern mbH 2011, p. 25.
Population development
From the second half of the 19th century until around 1910 the population of Kaiserslautern
increased continuously but at a comparably modest pace. The following decades were still
marked by growth but with a smaller growth rate. During the 2nd World War the city lost some
of its population due to heavy destructions of the inner city. After the end of the war and
during the 1950’s Kaiserslautern’s population increased more than ever, carried by the
general economic development in Germany and several incorporations of surrounding
municipalities in 1969. This led to another growth in population over the important mark of
100.000 inhabitants (Stadtverwaltung Kaiserslautern 2012, p. 30; Stadt Kaiserslautern –
Chronik 2012). Since then the city’s population remains remarkably stable with only minor
losses over the past 40 years.
There are two significant phases in population development during this time. Three years
past the reunification the net in-migration was between 1000 and 2000 people, most likely
relocating from former GDR territory. Another significant point in the population development
can be seen in 2009 with a net growth of almost 2200 inhabitants (Statistisches Landesamt
Rheinland-Pfalz 2012b). This coincides with newly installed tax regulations for secondary
residences, making swapping to a status of primary residency more attractive. In general the
population development of the city is negative but not dramatic as one can see by the
changes in population over the past 20 years (Table 1). The small but constant loss of
people is compensated by single actions or events like the reunification or the installment of
new tax regulations. Additionally the city benefits from a new wave of re-urbanization.
Especially elder people have started to leave their single family homes in the suburbs and
move into the city for a better access to various services (Bauer 2013). However, this will not
prevent the further loss of inhabitants due to the underlying problem of aging and
demographic change in the long term.
Table 1: Population development of Kaiserslautern
1900 1910 1920 1930 1939 1950 1961 1970 1980 1987 1990 2000 2010
48.310 54.659 56.282 61.509 65.890 62.761 86.259 99.617 98.745 97.326 99.351 99.825 97.582
Source: Stadtverwaltung Kaiserslautern 2012, p. 30
Figure 2: Population development of Kaiserslautern
Population
120000
100000
80000
60000
Population
40000
20000
2010
2000
1990
1987
1980
1970
1961
1950
1939
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1840
1830
0
Source: Stadtverwaltung Kaiserslautern 2012, p. 30; Statistisches LandesamtRheinland
Pfalz 2012a.
Reasons for a stable population
While Kaiserslautern’s population growth in the late 19th and early 20th century was driven by
the positive development in manufacturing industries, this changed after the structural
changes in the worldwide economy. Since then the manufacturing sector has continuously
lost importance in terms of employment (see Fig. 1). Although the number of jobs created in
the service sector could make up for the quantitative losses in manufacturing but it is
important to note, that wages in service, especially in retail, are not near as high as in
manufacturing. However, a few years earlier the state of Rhineland-Palatinate decided to
found a new university in Kaiserslautern to diversify and improve the possibilities for
education and job training throughout the state. This brought a new economic branch to the
city. It also might have compensated migration tendencies from people who lost their job
during this time although they might not have gotten a new position within the University.
Since then the University has attracted a large number of new residents, both students and
employees, to the city (WFK 2012, p. 27).
Since 1975 the migration balance of Kaiserslautern shows only small differences between
around +1000 people and -500 people (Stadtverwaltung Kaiserslautern 2012, p. 32). The
reasons for this can be found in the shift of local economy from manufacturing to service
industry. Since 1974, the number of jobs within the secondary sector declined from 47.300 to
29.220 in 2010. In the same period the number of jobs in the service sector increased from
45.840 to 73.770 jobs, which means that employment remained on a stable level (WFK
2011, p. 25).
This development is at least partly attributed to the foundation of the University of
Kaiserslautern. Approximately 100 companies have been founded as spin-offs from the
university throughout the region. Several of these companies are still located in
Kaiserslautern and operate mainly in research and development and the service sector
(WFK 2011, p. 12). The focus on this field of employment is further strengthened by the
establishment of several larger research facilities owned by the Max Planck and Fraunhofer
Society as well as John Deere.
Another reason for the relatively stable numbers of population in Kaiserslautern might be the
incorporation of several municipalities at the edge of Kaiserslautern in 1969. In this way the
tendency of suburbanization and outmigration could be absorbed within the city itself
providing areas with a suburban lifestyle within the city’s boundaries.
Challenges for Kaiserslautern
The challenge for urban development in Kaiserslautern is, so far, not the elimination of
abandoned and vacant houses or properties on a large scale. However, the downgrading of
retail shops and vacant retail space within the city’s pedestrian zone is becoming more
prevalent. Additionally the largest employers in Kaiserslautern are still within the
manufacturing industries. The development of these companies seems somewhat unstable,
since every now and then plans for restructuring and lay-offs become public but so far have
not been implemented.
The city tries to make use of the university and the surrounding research cluster to improve
its economic base. In 2004 a new development concept called “StadtTechnopole” was
created to give guidance for the future urban and economic development. But after initial
efforts to promote the plan and a failed application for the federal contest “city of science” the
plan was not followed anymore. Despite that there have formed numerous networks around
the scientific cluster in Kaiserslautern which initiate events and programs to further
strengthen the scientific base for economic development.
Literature:
Bauer, Thomas. 2013. Interview mit René Fleschurz. 11.03.2013. Kaiserslautern.
Industrie- und Handelskammer Pfalz (Hrsg.). 2010. Grenz-Erfahrung - Heimatkunde:
DieNordwestpfalz. Wirtschaftsmagazin Pfalz (3): 28–29. Retrieved 06.11.14 on
http://www.pfalz.ihk24.de/linkableblob/luihk24/servicemarken/Wirtschaftsmagazin_Pfalz/Kom
plettausgaben_channel/Komplettausgaben_PDF/600982/.11./data/wimag_3_10-data.pdf.
Statistisches Landesamt Rheinland Pfalz. 2012a. „Mein Dorf, meine Stadt.“ Retrieved
20.08.2012 on
http://www.infothek.statistik.rlp.de/neu/MeineHeimat/zeitreihe.aspx?l=3&id=3537&key=07312
00000&kmaid=1919&zmaid=939&topic=2&subject=20
Statistisches Landesamt Rheinland Pfalz. 2012b. „Mein Dorf, meine Stadt.“ Retrieved
20.08.2012 on
http://www.infothek.statistik.rlp.de/neu/MeineHeimat/zeitreihe.aspx?l=3&id=3537&key=07312
00000&kmaid=1919&zmaid=939&topic=2&subject=222
Stadt Kaiserslautern. 2012. „Chronik.“ Retrieved 20.08.2012 on
http://www.kaiserslautern.de/tourismus/stadtportrait/chronik/index.html?lang=de
Stadtverwaltung Kaiserslautern. 2012. Statistischer Jahresbericht 2011. Retrieved
20.08.2012 on
http://www.kaiserslautern.de/imperia/md/content/PDF/statistik/stat._jahresbericht_2011_stan
d_14.08.2012.pdf
Wirtschaftsförderungsgesellschaft Stadt und Landkreis Kaiserslautern mbH (WFK). 2012.
Jahresbericht 2011. Retrieved 20.08.2012 on http://www3.kaiserslautern.de/wfkkl/media/pdf/Jahresbericht%202011%20der%20WFK.pdf