Methodology for Boston’s Population Projections 2016 BOSTON REDEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY THE BOSTON REDEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY RESEARCH DIVISION (BRA) We strive to understand the current environment of the city to produce quality research and targeted information that will inform and benefit the residents and businesses of Boston. Our Division conducts research on Boston’s economy, population, and commercial markets for all departments of the BRA, the City of Boston, and related organizations. RESEARCH DIVISION DIRECTOR Alvaro Lima DEPUTY DIRECTOR Jonathan Lee The information provided in this report is the best available at the time of its publication. All or partial use of this report must be cited. RESEARCH MANAGER Christina Kim CITATION Please cite this publication as: Boston Redevelopment Authority Research Division, September 2016 SENIOR RESEARCHER/ ECONOMIST Matthew Resseger SENIOR RESEARCHER/ DEMOGRAPHER INFORMATION For more information about research produced by the Boston Redevelopment Authority, please contact the Research Division at [email protected] Phillip Granberry RESEARCH ASSOCIATE Kevin Kang REQUESTS RESEARCH ASSISTANT Research requests can be made through the BRA Research Division’s Research Inquiries website. Kevin Wandrei INTERNS Jing Chen Lindsey Connors Cyan O'Garro Visit our website BostonRedevelop.org Follow us on Twitter twitter.com/BostonRedevelop Appreciation The BRA Research Division would like to thank Timothy Reardon and Meghna Hari of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) for their feedback and collaboration on this population projection methodology. Introduction To inform the Imagine Boston 2030 planning process and to create an internal capacity to provide ongoing assistance regarding demographic analysis and projections, the Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA) Research Division examined historical population trends, created projections for Boston’s population through 2030 and a projection model to provide and test hypothetical scenarios or explore the impact of policy proposals. Historical Population Trends born population fell to 13 percent of Boston’s population 1900 through 2015. Boston’s population grew through in 1970, when immigration restrictions were eased. the first half of the 20th century to a peak of 801,444 From 1950 to 1980, Boston’s population declined by in 1950. The annexation of Hyde Park in 1912 brought almost 30 percent to 562,994 due to the combination an end to Boston’s growth through land annexation. of lower international immigration and the rise of International immigration was an important factor suburbanization. From 1980 to the present, Boston in the early part of the 20th century, with the has experienced steady population growth driven foreign-born population at about one third of Boston’s by increasing international migration. Throughout, population through 1920. The 1924 Immigration Act college students and other young adults have formed a restricted international immigration, and the foreign significant portion of Boston’s population. FIGURE 1 Figure 1 illustrates Boston’s population changes from BOSTON’S POPULATION 1900 – 2015 900,000 670,585 700,000 669,469 641,071 770,816 748,060 600,000 500,000 801,444 781,188 800,000 617,594 574,823 697,197 562,994 560,892 589,141 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2015 1-year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis 4 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 2015 Population Projection Methodology The BRA Research Division used a cohort-component population projection method to project Boston’s population. This method uses the components of population change (fertility, mortality, and migration) to project each age cohort from a base of the 2010 Decennial Census. The equation for the projected population is as follows: Projected Population = Population Base + Natural Change + Migration Where: Population Base: the population stock at the beginning of the projection period Natural Change: the difference between births and deaths Migration: the difference between in- and out- domestic migration plus the net gain / loss of international migrants So that: Projected Population = Population Base + [Births – Deaths] + [Domestic In-migration – Domestic Outmigration + Net International Migration] We use historical data on births, deaths, and Boston’s population in five year increments. The migration to calculate fertility, mortality and migration following sections examine the components of rates. We apply these rates to the population population change in greater detail. CHART base (2010 Decennial Census population) to project PROJECTED POPULATION CALCULATION Population Base Natural Change Births Deaths Migration Domestic In-Migration Domestic Out-Migration Net International Migration Projected Population BostonRedevelop.org | 5 Natural Change in Population: Births - Deaths Births We examined births in Boston from 2000-2014 using of a slight decline in fertility in the U.S. over the next Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH) 40 years.1, 2 Figure 2 illustrates Boston’s annual birth records. Boston has averaged 7,900 births a year since rates by age of mother for 2006 to 2009 and 2010 2000. The fertility rate is the percentage of women of to 2014. We use the more recent data (2010-2014) childbearing age who give birth in a year. on births when generating age specific fertility rates in order to capture this shift towards births to older There is a noticeable recent trend toward slightly lower mothers. The projection methodology uses these fertility rates overall and a significant trend towards fertility rates to project the number of births in each births at older ages. This trend towards more births five year time period. to mothers aged 30-plus and fewer to mothers under 30 is evident in birth data going back to 2000. It is also consistent with national data about the increase FIGURE 2 in mean age of mothers and U.S. Census projections BOSTON’S ANNUAL BIRTH RATES BY AGE OF MOTHER 2006 - 2014 8.9% 9% 7.9% 8% 6.9% 7% 6.2% 6% 5% 4.6% 5.7% 4.3% 4% 3% 2% 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 1% 0.1% 0.2% 0% 15-19 20-24 25-29 2006-2009 Average 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 2010-2014 Average Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Births to Boston Residents, 2006-2014 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2014 1-year American Community Survey, 2010 Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis Colby, Sandra L. and Jennifer M. Ortman, Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060, Current Population Reports, P25-1143, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, 2014. http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo/p25-1143.pdf 1 2 ational Center for Health Statistics, “Mean Age of Mothers in on the Rise: 2000-2014”, January 2016 http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db232. N htm 6 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 Deaths We examined deaths in Boston from 2000-2013 using of people in Boston in each cohort and taking the Massachusetts Department of Public Health records. complement of the death rate to produce a survival The annual number of deaths in Boston declined rate. Because of increased number of deaths in over this time period despite the city's growing the first year of life, we calculated a separate survival population. Boston deaths declined from an average rate for infants. of 4,367 a year from 2000 to 2004 to an average of Figure 3 shows the one-year death rates by age 3,692 a year from 2010 to 2013. This decline can be explained by increasing one-year survival rates in the older age groups. To capture this trend, we used the more recent death data (2010 - 2013) to calculate age- and gender-specific survival rates to use in our cohort based on 2010 to 2013 data. Our projection methodology applies the age- and gender-specific survival rates to each age cohort to project the size of the cohort that survives into the next time period. projections. We calculated survival rates by dividing the average number of deaths 2010 to 2013 in each age FIGURE 3 cohort by a U.S. Census estimate of the number BOSTON GENDER-SPECIFIC ONE-YEAR DEATH RATES BY AGE 2010 – 2013 16.5% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% le s 10 -1 4 15 -1 9 20 -2 4 25 -2 9 30 -3 4 35 -3 9 40 -4 4 45 -4 9 50 -5 4 55 -5 9 60 -6 4 65 -6 9 70 -7 4 75 -7 9 80 -8 4 85 -8 9 90 -9 4 59 14 s th an 1 0% Male average 1-year Death Rate Female average 1-year Death Rate Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Deaths 2010-2013 & U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2011-2013 1-year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis BostonRedevelop.org | 7 Historical and Projected Natural Change in Boston’s Population Figure 4 shows the historical average annual births from approximately 3,500 to 4,200 per year. In the and deaths for 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010- absence of migration, Boston’s population would be 2013.3 This historical average annual natural change expected to grow by this amount each year due to (births minus deaths) rises from 3,596 for 2000 - natural change (births and deaths). 2004 to 4,228 for 2010 - 2013. The figure also shows the projected average annual births and deaths for 2016-2020, 2021-2025, and 2026-2030. The projections predict increasing numbers of births but also an increase in deaths such that projected average annual natural change falls back to 3,523 for 2026 - 2030. The average annual natural change FIGURE 4 in Boston’s population (births minus deaths) ranges HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED ANNUAL BIRTHS AND DEATHS IN BOSTON 2000 – 2030 8,000 7,963 7,919 7,859 8,596 8,471 8,152 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,367 4,000 3,865 3,692 2005-2009 2010-2013 4,202 4,611 5,073 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000-2004 Births 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Deaths Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Resident Births and Deaths 2000-2013, BRA Research Population Projections 2016-2030, BRA Research Division Analysis At the time of publication, birth and death data were not available for 2014 and 2015. These data will be added to the projection model as they become available. 3 8 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 Migration In addition to natural change, migration is an important factor in shaping Boston’s population growth and age distribution. The BRA Research population projection methodology makes use of American Community Survey (ACS) migration data to analyze migration patterns directly rather than simply attributing to migration any residual population change after births and deaths have been taken into account. Boston to elsewhere in the United States including moved to and from Boston in the previous year. We Massachusetts. The domestic out-migration rate for average eight years of migration data from 2007 each cohort is the percentage of Boston’s population to 2014 to smooth the effects of sampling error. that moves elsewhere in the United States. The BRA population projection model considers The model measures international migration as a domestic Domestic net total representing in-migration from another migration measures in- and out-migration separately. country minus out-migration to another country. The Domestic in-migration measures people who move to ACS provides yearly estimates of people who moved Boston from elsewhere in the United States including to Boston from another country, but it does not Massachusetts. The domestic in-migration rate for provide a measure of people who moved from Boston each cohort is the percentage of the U.S. population to another country. However, the U.S. Census does outside of Boston that moves to Boston. Domestic provide yearly estimates of Suffolk County’s net out-migration measures people who move from international migration. We apply the age and gender FIGURE 5 The ACS provides yearly estimates of people who and international migration. AVERAGE ANNUAL NET TOTAL MIGRATION 2007 – 2014 10,000 9,046 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,873 -36 -224 -271 -186 -7 4 -1,736 -199 -5 9 -1,310 -204 4 -2,000 -413 -4 9 - -6 9 2,000 -34 -12 -103 1,310 -1,101 -2,404- + 85 -8 4 80 -7 9 75 70 65 -6 4 60 55 50 -5 45 -4 4 40 -3 9 35 -3 4 30 -2 9 25 -2 4 20 -1 9 17 516 04 -4,000 Age Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 American Community Surveys, PUMS, BRA Research Division Analysis BostonRedevelop.org | 9 distribution of Boston’s international in-migration Children ages 0-16 and adults age 25 and over havenet to estimates of Boston’s share of Suffolk County’s negative migration to Boston. Boston has consistently net international immigration. The net international experienced net out-migration of children. This out- migration rate is the net percentage of Boston migration occurs before children enter school and residents who moved internationally. continues through high school age. For example, From 2007 to 2014, Boston had an average net gain 33,053 children ages 0-4 in 2000 became 27,343 of 2,376 people per year due to migration. Boston children ages 10-14 in 2010 for a net out-migration of has distinct age patterns to its migration. As shown over 17 percent. in FIGURE 5, the only ages that have a net positive From 2007 to 2014, approximately 66,671 people migration are 17-24 year olds, as young adults come to arrived in Boston each year while approximately 64,295 Boston for educational and employment opportunities. people left Boston. Figure 6 shows the rough estimates Boston’s population increases significantly as college of the origins and destinations of these migrants. students arrive in Boston to attend one of the region Approximately 42 percent of arrivals in Boston colleges or universities. In addition to college students, international migrants begin arriving in larger numbers FIGURE 6 at this age. come from Massachusetts, and 24 percent come from another city or town in Greater Boston.4 ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS OF MIGRANTS TO AND FROM BOSTON 2007-2014 100% 10% 18% 90% 80% 70% 40% 40% 60% 50% 18% 40% 18% 30% 20% 33% 24% 10% 0% Arrivals in Boston Greater Boston Elsewhere in Massachusetts Departures from Boston U.S. outside MA International Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 American Community Surveys, PUMS, and Census Population Estimates, BRA Research Division Analysis. Note: Domestic migration shares are taken from 2007-2011 data due to a change in definition in 2012. International departures are estimated from Suffolk County population estimates as described earlier. Greater Boston is defined here as Salem, Lynn, Dedham, Waltham, Medford, Braintree, Chelsea, Revere, Cambridge, Everett, Somerville, Brookline, Newton, Quincy, and Milton. 4 10 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 Approximately 51 percent of departures from Boston year prior to the survey. Migration questions do not go elsewhere in Massachusetts and 33 percent go to consider the nativity or citizenship of the migrants, another city or town in Greater Boston. Boston has so these international migrants are not exclusively an average annual net loss of population to the rest foreign born. A native born U.S. citizen who lives abroad of Greater Boston of approximately 5,138 people. and then moves to Boston would be considered an Boston has an average annual net gain of population international migrant in the year of their arrival. The from the rest of Massachusetts outside of Greater Census estimates that approximately 80 percent of Boston of approximately 350 people. Boston also international migrants to the U.S. are foreign born. gains on average 1,095 people from the rest of the Conversely, United States outside of Massachusetts each year. come to Boston from first living somewhere else From 2007 to 2014, Boston had an average annual net in the United States. These individuals would be gain of 6,070 people due to international migration. On average, each year, 6,070 more people arrive in Boston from another country than leave Boston to live in another country. These data measure FIGURE 7 migration by asking where the person lived one some foreign-born individuals may considered domestic migrants in the year they move to Boston, but once in Boston, they would be counted in the foreign-born immigrant population of Boston. Figure 7 shows these net migration flows between Boston and other regions. AVERAGE ANNUAL NET MIGRATION FLOWS TO AND FROM BOSTON 2007-2014 +6,070 World +1,095 United States +350 Massachusetts Greater Boston Boston -5,138 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2014 1-year American Community Survey, PUMS, BRA Research Division Analysis BostonRedevelop.org | 11 Projection Results As previously documented, we created (1) age-specific fertility rates from Massachusetts Public Health Commission birth data from 2010-2014 and U.S. Census population data; (2) age- and gender-specific survival rates from Massachusetts Public Health Commission death data 2010-2013 and U.S. Census population data; and (3) age- and gender-specific domestic in- and out-migration and net international rates from U.S. Census migration and population data from 2007-2014. We applied these constant rates to Boston’s 2010 average annual population increase for the city of Decennial Census population divided into age and 0.85 percent from 2010. sex cohorts to project the population in five-year Figure 9 shows the age and gender distributions of periods. We projected the 2015 population and then the 2010 and 2030 Boston populations. The age used that projection to launch the 2020 population. structure of the 2030 projected population continues We continued this process until we projected Boston’s to be marked by large 20-24 and 25-29 cohorts. 2030 population. However, the population noticeably smooths out as Boston’s population is projected to grow to 723,500 other age cohorts increase in size. FIGURE 8 by 2030, as shown in Figure 8. This represents an BOSTON'S PROJECTED POPULATION THROUGH 2030 1900 - 2030 801,444 781,188 800,000 750,000 697,197 770,816 748,060 700,000 723,500 676,000 641,071 617,594 650,000 670,585 600,000 550,000 574,823 589,141 562,994 560,892 500,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Decennial Census 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 BRA Projection Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900-2010 Decennial Census, 2010-2030 Population Projections, BRA Research Division Analysis 12 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 2020 2030 FIGURE 9 2010 AND PROJECTED 2030 POPULATION PYRAMIDS 2010 - 2030 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 50,000 30,000 10,000 2010 Female 10,000 30,000 50,000 2010 Male 50,000 30,000 10,000 2030 Female 10,000 30,000 50,000 2030 Male Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, 2030 Population Projections, BRA Research Division Analysis The 2030 projected populations are larger than Although the young adult cohorts remain the largest, the 2010 populations in all age and gender cohorts their share of the city’s population decreases as the except 15 to 19 and 20 to 24. Figure 10 illustrates the 2030 projections project increases in the older age projected changes in the size of the age cohorts. As the cohorts. Figure 11 illustrates the population share Millennial generation ages, there are decreases in the by age group throughout the projection period. The young adult cohorts and increases in the middle aged over 65 age cohort increases from 10 percent to 14 cohorts. The population aged 30 to 44 is projected to percent of the population, while the 15-29 age cohorts grow by 46,520 people, an increase of 35 percent. The decrease from 34 percent to 29 percent of Boston’s aging Baby Boomers lead to a 65 percent increase in population by 2030. the size of the population over age 65. The over 65 population is projected to increase by 40,408 people from 2010 to 2030. The 15-24 year old cohort loses approximately 10,000 people, a decline of 7 percent. This trend is consistent with national historical and projected trends. BostonRedevelop.org | 13 FIGURE 10 PROJECTED BOSTON POPULATION BY AGE COHORT 2010 – 2030 220,000 212,646 209,150 200,000 180,000 177,254 160,000 140,000 130,734 120,000 126,211 136,301 102,645 100,000 80,000 60,000 98,158 85,766 62,237 40,000 2010 2015 0-14 15-29 2020 30-44 2025 45-64 2030 65+ FIGURE 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census & BRA Population Projections, BRA Research Division Analysis POPULATION SHARE BY AGE GROUP 2010 – 2030 100% 90% 80% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 24% 25% 24% 34% 33% 31% 30% 29% 14% 13% 14% 14% 14% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 - 14 15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census & BRA Population Projections, BRA Research Division Analysis 14 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 Comparison to Other Projections In addition to the BRA’s population projection for Even though there is a range of 42,500 people among Boston in 2030, the Metropolitan Area Planning these three population projections for Boston, there Council and UMass Donahue Institute have produced are similar patterns among them. All three project population projections. Each of these projections faster population growth from 2010 to 2030 than from generated different fertility, survival, and migration 1980 to 2010, with the most rapid population increase rates resulting from choices made related to data occurring 2010 to 2020, and slowing after 2020. All sources and assumptions regarding measurement of three show a decrease in the 15-29 population and an migration. The BRA’s projection of 723,500 represents increase in the 30 to 44 population relative to Boston’s a 0.85 percent average annual population increase total population. Finally, all three projections show an while MAPC’s "Stronger Region" projected population increase in the population 65 year or older. of 709,500 represents a 0.75 percent average annual population increase. UMass Donahue Institute’s projected population of 752,000 represents a 1.09 FIGURE 12 percent average annual population increase. COMPARISON OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR 2030 1980 – 2030 752,000 750,000 723,500 700,000 709,500 650,000 600,000 617,594 589,141 562,994 574,823 550,000 500,000 1980 Decennial Census 1990 2000 MAPC Projection 2010 BRA Projection 2020 2030 Donahue Projection Source: 1980-2010 Decennial Census Reardon, Tim & Hari, Meghna, “Metro Boston 2030 Population and Housing Demand Projections,” MAPC, 2014. Renski, Henry & Strate, Susan “Long-Term Population Projections for Massachusetts Regions and Municipalities,” UMDI, 2014. BRA Research Staff Analysis BRA Population Projection Model The BRA Research Division created a population test hypothetical scenarios or to explore the impact projection model that can be updated easily as new of policy proposals. Figure 13 illustrates the main data become available. We plan to update our inputs components of the model and the relationships of births, deaths and migration data annually. The between the variables and the key components, data model was designed with the flexibility necessary to and rates. BostonRedevelop.org | 15 FIGURE 13 BRA POPULATION PROJECTION MODEL LEGEND Projection Projection Fert_5Y Boston operationalized 5-year fertility rate =average (BosBirth-year)*5 BosPop_5Y Boston population 5-year age cohort Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate, 2010 Decennial Census Key Component “At-Risk” BosBirth Boston birth rate 5-year age cohort female age 10-45 Source: BPHC Survived_to_End_Year Boston residents survued at the end of projection periods. =BosPop_5Y* Survive_5Y Projected Birth =Boston Female Population Projections * Fert_5Y Data Rate BosDeath Boston death rate 5-year age cohort Death Rate = Death / BosPop_5_Y Source: BPHC Survive_5Y Boston operationalized 5-year survival rate = [(1- BosDeath1-year)2.5]*[(1-BosDeath12.5 year) ] Natural Change Boston Population Projections Migration Domestic In-Migration =USPop_Proj_2015-2040 * DomInMigR USPop_Proj_2015-2040 =US population projections (Census) Boston Population Projections (BRA Research) Source: Census, BRA Research DomInMigR Boston operationalized domestic in-migration rate = BosDomIn_1Y_07-14 / US_Syn BosDomIn_1Y_07-14 Boston domestic in-migration 1-year age cohort, 2007-2014 Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate Bos_non-mover_07-14 Living in Boston at time of ACS survey and had not moved in previous 12 months Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate Domestic Out-Migration =Survived_to_End_Year * DomOutMigR DomOutMigR Boston operationalized domestic outmigration rate =BosDomOut_1Y_07-14 / US_Syn US_Syn US synthetic population =USPop_07-14 - US_IntIn_07-14 (Bos_Syn - Bos_IntIn_1Y_07-14) Bos_Syn Boston synthetic population =Bos_Dom-movers_1Y_07-11 + Bos_non-mover_07-14 + BostIntIn_07-14 Bos_Dom-mover_1Y_07-14 Living in Boston 12 months prior to ACS survey but had subsequently moved within the U.S. Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate 16 | Methodology for Boston's Population Projections 2016 Net International Migration = Survived_to_End_Year * NetIntMigR NetIntMigR Boston operationalized net international migration rate =BosIntIn_1Y_07-14 / Bos_Syn BosDomOut_1Y_07-14 Boston domestic out-migration 1-year age cohort, 2007-2014 Source:2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate BosIntIn_1Y_07-14 Boston international migration, 1-year eastimate, 2007-2014 Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate US_IntIn_07-14 US international inmigration, 2007-2014 Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate US_Pop_07-14 Us population, 2007-2014 Source: 2007-2014 ACS PUMS 1-year estimate
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