WHAT’S THE FUTURE OF PASTA? CHALLENGES AND
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE GLOBAL MARKET
WORLD PASTA DAY AND CONGRESS 2015
JACK SKELLY, FOOD ANALYST
WHAT’S THE FUTURE OF PASTA? CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE GLOBAL MARKET
Euromonitor International: Strategic Global Market Research
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INTRODUCTION
A GLOBAL PICTURE
OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND
PASTA
CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
Challenges
Opportunities
Assessing the pasta market depends on your outlook
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Global market
expansion
Adding value in
core markets
Product
expansion
Low growth
Difficult
competitive
environment
Losing out to
other staples
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INTRODUCTION
A GLOBAL PICTURE
OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND
PASTA
CONCLUSION
A GLOBAL PICTURE
Pasta in a nutshell
$3.7 / capita
CONSUMPTION OF PASTA
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25kg / capita
PER CAPITA CONSUMED IN TUNISIA
6%
GROWTH BETWEEN 2010-2015
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
Pasta is popular globally
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
Yet it is too reliant on core markets
Global Sales of Pasta by Region 2015
Western Europe
Latin America
North America
Middle East and Africa
64%
OF GLOBAL PASTA SALES
GENERATED IN TOP 10
COUNTRIES
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Australasia
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
…And it’s underperforming in them
3.500
3,5
2.500
2,5
1.500
1,5
500
0,5
-500
-0,5
-1.500
-1,5
-2.500
-2,5
-3.500
% CAGR 2010-2015 & 2015-2020
Retail Sales (US$ million)
Leading Markets 2010-2020 and their growth (% CAGR)
-3,5
Italy
US
Brazil
2010
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Germany
2015
2020
France
Russia
CAGR 2010-2015
United
Kingdom
Japan
Canada
Mexico
CAGR 2015-2020
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
Private label driving down value growth in Western Europe
Pasta Private Label % Market Share 2015
80
10
9
70
8
60
50
6
40
5
4
30
Unit Price (US$ / kg)
% Market Share 2015
7
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Private Label % Market Share 2005
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Germany
Private Label % Market Share 2015
Italy
Private Label Unit Price
France
Branded Unit Price
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
Qualified optimism for peripheral markets
Sales growth in peripheral markets, 2010-2015
500
25
450
20
350
300
15
250
200
10
150
100
% CAGR 2010-2015
Retail Sales (US$ million)
400
5%
OF GLOBAL PASTA SALES
GENERATED BY TOP TEN
FASTEST GROWING
COUNTRIES
5
50
0
0
Retail Sales 2015 (US$ million)
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% CAGR 2010-2015
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
Pasta consumption heavily split globally
Retail Consumption of Staples 2015 (kg per capita)
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A GLOBAL PICTURE
Vicious circle in peripheral markets
Cultural
preference
Limited
availability
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Lack of
affordability
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Affordability a key
issue for pasta
Rice - US, 0.8 Mins
Pasta - US, 0.8 Mins
Noodles - US, 1.5
Mins
1 minute
TO AFFORD 100G PASTA,
RICE AND NOODLES IN
THE US
Rice, India, 13.9
mins
14 minutes
Noodles - India, 14.4
Mins
TO AFFORD 100G OF RICE
AND NOODLES IN INDIA
27 minutes
Time Taken to Purchase
100g of Pasta, Rice &
Noodles – US & India, 2015
Pasta - India, 27.2
Mins
TO AFFORD 100G OF
PASTA IN INDIA
INTRODUCTION
A GLOBAL PICTURE
OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND
PASTA
RECOMMENDATIONS
OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND PASTA
Opportunities in core markets
Premium pasta
Health
Product expansion
Licensing & New Technologies
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OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND PASTA
Rude health: healthy and organic pasta performing well
% CAGR by product type 2010-2015
70
60
% CAGR 2010-2015
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Gluten-Free Pasta
Asia Pacific
Middle East and Africa
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Organic Pasta
Western Europe
High Fibre Pasta
Latin America
Australasia
North America
Pasta
Eastern Europe
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OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND PASTA
Consumers willing to pay more for premium and health products
Unit Price Comparison of Pasta by type
10
9
Unit Price per kg (2015)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Italy
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France
Germany
US
Dried
HW
Chilled
Dried
HW
Chilled
Dried
HW
Chilled
Dried
HW
Chilled
Dried
HW
Chilled
0
United Kingdom
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OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND PASTA
Private label presence weaker in sauces and ready meals
80
6
60
4
40
2
20
0
0
-20
% CAGR 2010-2015
Market Share % (2015)
Private Label % Market Share of Pasta and Pasta Sauces (2015)
-2
Pasta
Pasta Sauces
Pasta
UK
Pasta Sauces
Pasta
Spain
Pasta Sauces
Pasta
Italy
Market Share (%)
Pasta Sauces
Pasta
France
Pasta Sauces
Germany
% CAGR 2010-2015
Private Label Market Share, 2015
Italian Ready Meal Presence in Largest Ready Meal Markets 2015
80
60
40
20
0
0
500
1.000
Germany
Japan
1.500
2.000
Market Size 2015 (US$ Million)
United Kingdom
France
Canada
2.500
Russia
Italy
3.000
3.500
US
Note: Bubble Size denotes percentage of ready meal sales from Italian Chilled and Frozen Ready Meals. Sizes range from 0-22.4%
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OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND PASTA
The future of pasta: licensing and new technologies
Spend per Household on
Cooking Appliances 2014
(US$)
Spending per Household on Food and Food Preparation Appliances 2014 (US$)
120
Israel
100
Norway
80
60
40
20
0
0
© Euromonitor International
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Spent per Household on Packaged Food 2014 (US$)
7.000
8.000
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OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND PASTA
Increasing availability in peripheral markets a must
Effort to
reduce unit
prices
More
widespread
distribution
Long-term
Strategy
Increased
comfort
with pasta
Sales 2015 (US$ million)
Rice and Noodles brands in India,
2015 (US$ million)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Note: Orange columns denote noodle brands
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INTRODUCTION
A GLOBAL PICTURE
OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN AND BEYOND
PASTA
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
Strategies for success sharply divided globally
Core markets
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Secondary &
tertiary
markets
Developing
synergies
Increasing
pasta
occasions
Differentiating
from private
label
Improving
availability
Focus on
value growth
Establishing
brand
presence
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CONTACT DETAILS
Jack Skelly
Food Analyst
Tel: +44 (0) 207 251 8024 EXT 1311
[email protected]