VALUE IN HEALTH REGIONAL ISSUES 7C (2015) 67–73 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/vhri Price Determinants of the Tendering Process for Pharmaceuticals in the Cyprus Market Panagiotis Petrou, MBA, PhDc*, Michael A. Talias, PhD HealthCare Management Programme, Open University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus AB STR A CT Background: Tendering has been a promising approach for procuring pharmaceuticals. Significant price reductions have been well documented by several authors. To our knowledge, there are limited data detailing the impact of variables in the tendering process. Objectives: In this article, our objective was to evaluate the impact of potentially exploratory variables, which included innovation status, total value and volume of sales of each product, health care setting administration (hospital/outpatient), patent status (branded/generic), tendering type, and wholesale price, on price reduction in the tendering process. Methods: Financial data of public sector sales during 2011 were analyzed. On the basis of these data, we selected 178 medicines with corresponding sales of €49 million, out of a total market value of €104 million. Medicines were selected according to volume, value, and therapeutic value across all therapeutic areas. We performed a beta regression for the assessment of impact of variables and applied the same methodology to different subgroups. Conclusions: The generic status of medicines is statistically significantly associated with a higher price reduction. Tendering type by alternative, high wholesale prices, and high volume are robust estimators for price reduction. Innovation status does not have any effect on price reduction. Outpatient medicines reach lower prices as compared with hospital medicines. A rather unexpected finding is the negative correlation of high sales value with price reduction. These findings will lead to better understanding of the tendering framework, enabling us to further evolve its operational capacity, aiming to generate more savings. Moreover, our study indicates areas in which a more optimized approach is needed. Keywords: health expenditure, innovation, pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement, pharmaceuticals, tendering. Introduction industry. Consequently, in Europe, tendering has been used principally in procuring bulk quantities such as vaccines and dispensable products for hospitals, which are characterized by low differentiation. Currently, only a few countries such as Cyprus, Malta, and Iceland apply tendering in the outpatient sector, whereas some other countries such as The Netherlands and Belgium implement tendering selectively [3–6]. Cyprus is heavily fragmented into public and private health sector care sectors, an attribute that applies to the pharmaceutical market as well. Official prices of pharmaceuticals are set by the Ministry of Health (MoH) at the wholesale level through external reference pricing (ERP) based on a basket consisting of one cheap, two medium, and one expensive European Union (EU) countries. The retail price is set by adding a regressive mark-up pharmacy profit margin to the wholesale price. Cyprus is the only EU country without a universal coverage national health system (NHS). As a result, private health care costs burden patients unless they are covered by an optional private health insurance [7]. The long anticipated NHS has been postponed for 2017 because there are significant debates regarding its structure and operational mode [8]. The MoH provides free health care, in Pharmaceutical expenses are rising beyond the increase in productivity, and they are stretching health systems beyond their viability. Currently, pharmaceutical expenses constitute the fastest growing sector of total health expenses, being just second to personnel expenses in term of recurrent costs [1]. Several factors contribute to this increase. The pharmaceutical market is a highly heterogeneous and flawed market [2], imputed to its domination—value wise—by products enjoying monopolistic and oligopolistic status. Factors that determine the market nature are new expensive products, brand loyalty, and increased asymmetry of information due to the level of uncertainty [2]. In this context, steep price reductions stemming out of the market exclusivity that tendering offers to successful bidders have made tendering a necessary medicine procurement method [3,4]. Nevertheless, this attribute is mediated by the imperative need of a strict and detailed legal framework and the inherent hazard of relying on one or a few suppliers for the entire market, while at the same time sustaining the dynamic efficiency of the Copyright & 2015, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. * Address correspondence to: Panagiotis Petrou, HealthCare Management Programme, Open University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 12794, 2252, Latsia, Cyprus. E-mail: [email protected]. 2212-1099$36.00 – see front matter Copyright & 2015, International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vhri.2015.09.001 68 VALUE IN HEALTH REGIONAL ISSUES 7C (2015) 67–73 public health care centers, to 85% of the individuals, based on criteria such as income, public servant employment tenure, socioeconomic status, and disease severity. Because some of the eligibility criteria for free public health beneficiary status are rather biased, this has ultimately led to a grossly uneven access to free public health care. The MoH procures all the medicines for public health care beneficiaries through tendering. All procured products must be registered in Cyprus, which implies that they carry an official wholesale price as well apart from the procurement price (the tender price). Tender outcome is defined as the price reduction compared with the wholesale price of the product. On average, tender prices achieved by tendering are 95% lower for generics and around 25% lower for branded products. (This refers to the tender price—the winning bidding price—compared with official wholesale price) [9]. The public sector does not apply pharmacy mark-up profit because public pharmacists are public servants and they are remunerated by a fixed monthly salary. Because prices to the tender process are submitted by marketing authorization holders (MaHs), the maximum price they can submit is the official wholesale price. The key cost drivers of Cyprus’s public sector include oncology, neurology, and immunosuppressive agents, whereas the corresponding key cost drivers of the private sector are branded statins, branded angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), branded proton pump inhibitors, and lifestyle products [10]. Despite the longstanding implementation of tendering in Cyprus, there is no documented analysis of exploratory variables that influence price reductions. The field of price determinants in the tendering process has been largely overlooked mainly because of the perception that tendering is a short-term approach and not a long-term health policy [11]. This is imputed to fears raised about industry sustainability, failures in some countries such as Belgium, and overestimated savings in The Netherlands due to the counterpoising increase in pharmacists’ fees. All these factors, along with legal issues, hindered further dissemination of tendering [11]. Consequently, no studies have considered the dynamics of tendering and most specifically none of these studies so far has measured the impact of the variables and the extent of their impact on the tendering outcome. Recently, an Italian study analyzed the impact of tendering on biosimilars, with regard to the number of bidders [12]. Other studies dealt with the conceptual framework of tendering and with its quantitative impact [9,11]. In contrast, cross-country variations in the prices of prescription medicines have been studied by many authors and the field of price determinants raised considerable interest in the recent years [13,14]. The goal of this study was to examine which factors influence the outcome of the tender, and to what extent. By identifying key variables, we can capitalize on these, further augmenting the efficiency of tendering. Methods Study Design We identified seven exploratory variables that may influence the outcome of tendering and are associated either with intrinsic attributes of the product or with extrinsic attributes of the product stemming out of its positioning and its uptake in the market. Price is the leading characteristic of a medicine and one of the decisive factors for its reimbursement. Pricing is a contextsensitive topic because a standoff must be achieved between affordable prices for the payer and profitable prices that will warrant the R&D projects of the industry, the balance between static and dynamic efficiency [15]. It was extensively argued that prevailing pricing schemes such as ERP may reduce short-term expenditure, but they are blunt instruments with regard to rewarding the true added value of a new pharmaceutical product [16,17]. This was the rationale behind the anticipated introduction of the value-based pricing scheme, that is, the alignment of price with the real value of the product [18]. In this direction, innovation status was defined as another variable [19]. Cyprus currently does not have a dedicated health technology assessment agency. Because of this gap, and to assess the impact of innovation on price reduction through tendering, we adopted the Amelioration du Service Medical Rendu ([ASMR] [Improvement of Medical Benefit]) classification of Haute Autorité de Santé in France [20,21]. In France, pharmaceutical products are assessed by the Commission of Pharmaceutical Evaluation on the basis of five pillars: 1. Efficacy and safety; 2. Position of the medicine in the therapeutic strategy and the existence or absence of therapeutic alternatives; 3. Severity of the disease; 4. Type of treatment: preventive, curative, or symptomatic; and 5. Public health impact. After the assessment is concluded, each product is awarded an improved medical benefit level ASMR classification ranging from I to V as follows: 1. ASMR I major improvement (new therapeutic area, reduction in mortality); 2. ASMR II significant improvement in efficacy and/or reduction in adverse effects; 3. ASMR III modest improvement in efficacy and/or reduction in adverse effects; 4. ASMR IV minor improvement; and 5. ASMR V no improvement. We adopted the French improved medical benefit level classification for the products included in our sample to assess the impact of innovation status. Tender type is also another important variable and currently, three types of tendering are applied in the Cyprus health setting. The first type is the “International Nonproprietary Name (INN) sole.” This tender type asks for a specific medicine, by its INN name. There is virtually no competition in this setting; therefore, we do not anticipate any significant price reduction. This, however, has to be counterbalanced by law provision, which may reject the procurement of a product should the Drug’s Committee decide that the submitted price is high. The second type is the “INN group.” This type applies for the procurement of several products of a specific therapeutic category such as aromatase inhibitors and anti– tumor necrosis factor agents and the elaboration of treatment guidelines based on the results. This is applied in expensive and specialized products in categories with high dropout rate and/or low compliance, primarily for secondary care. In this tender type, the cheapest product is set as a first-line therapy while the other products are set in subsequent treatment lines according to prices. The third type is the “INN alternative.” This tender type is used in high-volume primary care products that are perceived to be interchangeable such as statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and proton pump inhibitors (e.g., omeprazole or lansoprazole) and asks for only one product (usually among three or more). We also assessed the impact of value and volume of sales on the basis of assumption that a higher volume may yield significant savings, according to current literature in the field of pricevolume agreement [22]. In addition to the above, the hospital or outpatient administration status and the potential interrelation with price reduction have not been studied. In Cyprus, current 69 VALUE IN HEALTH REGIONAL ISSUES 7C (2015) 67–73 Table 1 – Regression coefficients of the beta regression model for the total sample. Covariate Mean model (logit link) intercept Wholesale price Value (log) Tendering status Alternative Group Hospital outpatient Volume (packs) log Drug classification patent status (generic) Beta regression P value Estimate Standard error –1.8516 0.0004 –0.2506 0.6770 0.0001 0.6625 0.006* o0.0001* 0.0001* 0.8248 0.4967 0.4556 0.3808 0.7064 0.2047 0.2488 0.1533 0.0505 0.2149 o0.0001* 0.045* 0.0030* (outpatient) o0.0001* 0.0001* (for generics) Pseudo R2: 0.3891. * Denotes statistically significant P value of o0.05. formulary classifies products as hospital and outpatient; therefore, we deemed it necessary to assess this variable because hospital drugs incur additional costs to the payer related to the administration of the product to the patient. As a result, it is interesting to investigate whether by offering lower prices the MaH makes up these additional costs that burden the payer. Patent status has also been extensively documented in the literature [23–25] and has been defined as an exploratory variable. form, strength, and pack size of a specific molecule. Among the selected products, 101 were assigned an ASMR status [20,21]. It is possible for a product with more than one indication to carry two ASMR classifications, which may vary on the basis of efficacy for each indication. Therefore, we picked the ASMR classification for the reimbursement indication of the respective product in Cyprus. Among the sample, 13 products were assessed as ASMR I, 14 products as ASMR II, 24 as ASMR III, 21 as ASMR IV, and 29 products as ASMR V. Statistical Analysis We used a beta regression to model the percentages of price reduction that are bounded in the range (0%–100%). Conventional regression analysis based on the normality assumption cannot be used for modeling percentages; rather, their modeling can be done more appropriately by using beta distribution regression. A more detailed justification of beta regression properties is well documented in the literature [26]. In our regression model, the dependent variable is the percentage price reduction in the tendering process, which is assumed to follow a beta distribution. The mean parameter of the beta distribution represents the average achieved reduction value, which was found to be dependent on the wholesale price, the logarithm of value, the tendering status, the hospital/outpatient, the logarithms of packs, and the drug classification. Therefore, the regression equation takes on the following form: Price reduction ¼ constant þ a innovation þ b (hospital/outpatient) þ c patent status þ d wholesale price þ e volume þ f value þ g tender type þ error where a, b, c, d, e, f, and g are the regression coefficients. We performed the above regression for the following five subsets of our data set, namely: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. For the entire market; For products that carry an ASMR classification; For branded products only; For generic products only; and For high-value medicines (products with sales of >€1,000,000 yearly value of sales). Data Management We collected official sales data from the MoH during 2011, and we selected 178 products with sales of €49 million, corresponding to approximately 50% of annual public pharmaceutical expenditure. Sampling was done through a stratified sampling procedure based on several stratums such as volume, value, and therapeutic importance. Medicines refer to a specific dosage Ethical Approval The topic of this study did not require approval by the Bioethics and Ethics Committee because it did not involve human subjects or data that could lead to identification of any patient. Results Tables 1 to 5 list the results of the regression. Generic status had a strong impact on price reduction, which was consistent across all subcategories as well. Tendering by alternative (procuring only one out of several competitive products) is associated with statistically significant price reductions in all categories. Tendering by group demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with price reduction only in the total sample, whereas tendering by INN (monopoly products) did not correlate with significant price reduction. One consistent finding across all market segments is the noncorrelation of innovation status with price reduction. Higher wholesale prices are statistically significantly associated with higher price reduction, while a notable finding is the negative correlation of total sales value with price reduction, except in the cohort with ASMR-assigned status. This conflicts with another consistent finding across categories, namely, significant correlation of volume with price reduction. In the total sample, outpatient medicines were associated with a statistically significant impact on price reduction. This also occurred in the generics-only category. Levels of pseudo R2 were satisfactory in all analyses, indicating that the model fit the data well. Discussion The findings of the article are related to other findings in the literature [9,11,12] that acknowledge that the tendering process offers significant price reductions. Our effort to decompose the 70 VALUE IN HEALTH REGIONAL ISSUES 7C (2015) 67–73 Table 2 – Regression coefficients of the beta regression model for branded products only. Covariate Mean model (logit link) intercept Wholesale price Value (log) Innovation status ASMR II ASMR III ASMR IV ASMR V Tendering status Alternative Group Hospital outpatient Volume in packs (log) Beta regression P value Estimate Standard error –2.089 0.00028 –0.165 0.886 0.0001 0.080 0.018* 0.01* 0.040* 0.535 0.077 0.345 0.243 0.659 0.445 0.500 0.585 0.41 0.86 0.48 0.67 0.873 0.467 –0.093 0.3339 0.236 0.270 0.201 0.062 0.0002* 0.088 0.64 7.75 10–08* Pseudo R2: 0.1848. ASMR, Amelioration du Service Medical Rendu. * Denotes statistically significant P value of o0.05. integral elements of tendering led to significant findings espousing tendering dynamics and input of several variables. Generic status (generic vs. branded) is the most important factor, and many authors demonstrated the beneficial input of generic penetration in health systems worldwide [11,27–29]. Lower barriers of generic entry into the market and ready availability of many competitors attest to this finding [30]. Therefore, the entry of generics leads to steep price reductions and it constitutes a significant price determinant in the context of tendering. In particular, Kanavos and Vandoros [13] also reported that off-patent originator brands account for a significant variation in prices. A major determinant of branded product is the price composition because generic products are significantly cheaper as they do not incur any research and development expenses. This finding is also intertwined with another predictive factor, tendering by alternative (either–or), which is undisputedly the most efficient form of tendering, although in one case tendering by group (preferential policy) offers statistically significant price reductions as well. In general, we concluded that price reduction correlates with the level of competition. This was also reported by Curto et al. [12] who specified that participation of each additional bidder lowered prices by 10%, a feature that is predominantly observed with generics and biosimilars. This calls for more transparency in the call for tender to facilitate the participation of more bidders. The resulting competition or even the threat of entry of new bidders in the process will ultimately augment the purchasing power of the payer. High sales volume is associated with significant price reduction, which is in line with common practices of other countries such as price-volume agreements [21]. Presumably, an MaH is willing to offer lower prices for bigger quantities because the Table 3 – Regression coefficients of the beta regression model for products with ASMR classification. Covariate Mean model (logit link) intercept Wholesale price Value (log) Innovation status ASMR II ASMR III ASMR IV ASMR V Tendering status Alternative Group Hospital outpatient Volume in packs (log) Drug classification patent status (generic) Pseudo R2: 0.2497. ASMR, Amelioration du Service Medical Rendu. * Denotes statistically significant P value of o0.05. Beta regression Estimate Standard error P value –7.9 3.3 –2.627 10–02 1.014 2.496 10–01 0.96062 0.43 0.000570* 0.311 3.188 –1.28 –2.8 10–01 –3.43 10–01 3.409 3.444 3.297 7.819 5.841 10–01 1.276 10–01 2.488 10–01 2.086 10–01 –0.1116 2.110 10–01 1.613 1000 0.1519 1.418 10–06 3.367 10–01 10–01 10–01 10–01 10–02 0.39 0.70 0.40 0.29 0.019253* 0.608116 0.4628 0.000496* 1.67 10–06* 71 VALUE IN HEALTH REGIONAL ISSUES 7C (2015) 67–73 Table 4 – Regression coefficients of the beta regression model for generic products only. Covariate Mean model (logit link) intercept Wholesale price Value (log) Tendering status Alternative Group Hospital outpatient Volume in packs (log) Beta regression Estimate Standard error P value –1.29 0.003 –0.431 0.873 0.001 0.115 0.1381 0.028* 0.0001* 0.611 0.593 1.246 0.538 0.397 0.586 0.225 0.087 0.124 0.310 3.21 10–08* 8.67 10–10* Pseudo R2: 0.4735. * Denotes statistically significant P value of o0.05. payer is legally bound to procure the predefined quantity, or sanctions apply to the payer, as in the case of Cyprus. However, the total value of sales has a negative statistically significant association with price reduction. One possible explanation is that high-value products achieve so through the development of a strong brand loyalty plan [31] that interacts with patients and prescribers at the emotional level apart from the functional benefits [32]. It was shown that advertising of pharmaceuticals comprises a strong product differentiation marketing tool that systematically lowers price sensitivity by enhancing brand loyalty [33,34], while concomitantly increasing sales [35]. Moreover, in most of the incurable conditions, such as those related to oncology, neurology, and rheumatology, patients are treated with each approved pharmaceutical product sequentially or in combination, which creates a “virtual monopoly” [36]. This will enable the MaH to retain high prices for blockbusters. Only for products that carry ASMR classification (101 products; Table 3), value is not statistically associated with price reduction. A critical question to be raised concerns how we effectively address this “anomaly” of the tendering process. A possible approach would be regulation of the currently unregulated pharmaceutical marketing framework, which could resist against aggressive promotion of pharmaceuticals, an acknowledged prerequisite of strong brand loyalty [37]. In addition to the above, high wholesale prices have a positive relation with price reduction, suggesting that expensive products lead to a greater price reduction. In conjunction with previous findings, the negative correlation of wholesale value with price reduction, we can conclude that expensive new products entering the market offer lower prices, but as their market value increases, the price reduction diminishes. A possible explanation is the submission of a low price to enter the market. After the product has reached the “star”marketing phase, industry is less keen to reduce the price, probably due to the creation of a strong loyalty brand and rapport with patients and stakeholders (the star marketing phase describes the high growth and profit phase of pharmaceuticals). This finding can also be ascribed to the fact that prices of some products are high due to small target group, their high uncertainty, and not due to actual production costs incurred by the company. Therefore, it seems that companies may have the capacity to submit lower prices. It is also possible that MaHs can sustain high prices when they take into account the future demand for a subsequent price reduction. Moreover, social solidarity principles often persuade people to pay substantially more for serious health conditions, even for marginal health gains. Pricing must also be interpreted in the notion that ERP is considered to be a cost-containment tool and lacks any theoretical basis. Usually other factors protrude into Table 5 – Regression coefficients of the beta regression model for products with sales value of >€1,000,000 annually. Covariate Mean model (logit link) intercept Wholesale price Value (log) Innovation status ASMR II ASMR III ASMR IV ASMR V Tendering status Alternative Group Hospital outpatient Volume in packs (log) Pseudo R2: 0.53. ASMR, Amelioration du Service Medical Rendu. * Denotes statistically significant P value of o0.05. Beta regression Estimate Standard error P value –2.1095 2.3932 –2.4448 1.0865 0.1889 0.1806 0.052 o2 10–16* o2 10–16* 0.65 0.57 0.26 0.47 0.659 0.51 0.58 0.85 0.52 0.73 0.55 0.17 0.1300 0.2934 –0.1116 2.4719 0.1852 0.1765 0.1519 0.1665 0.4828 0.0964* 0.4628 o2 10–16* 72 VALUE IN HEALTH REGIONAL ISSUES 7C (2015) 67–73 the selection of referencing countries, such as geographical proximity and access to prices. In the World Health Organization/Health Action International (HAI) Project Medicine Prices and Availability [38], authors stated that it is doubtful whether the ERP is “appropriate, efficient or optimal in accordance with any objective criterion.” The risk of dissemination of flawed pricing also lurks, especially for countries that follow referencing countries, while industry actively pursues higher prices in first-tolaunch countries, and this creates a spillover effect. However, low-price countries face the risk of a late launch, which often results in loss of utility. Finally, the referencing system levels off easily and stabilizes [39]. One of the most important findings is the lack of a correlation between the innovation level and the price reduction. This leads to loss of optimality because the payer may acquire less utility for the same monetary value. The current prevailing pricing scheme ERP has been criticized as impeding R&D because it does not provide incentives for innovation [40]. These findings are contradictory in terms of the current shift of leading health agencies, such as the National Health Service and the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Healthcare (IQWIG) [41,42], which are gradually fostering value-based pricing, a pricing system that aligns the price of a product to its therapeutic value, aiming to reward and promote genuine innovation. Although value-based pricing stalled in the United Kingdom, the underlying reasons for its implementation are still imperative and the need for aligning the price to the clinical value of the product is still unmet. In this sense, we expected that products with a low innovation status (i.e., modest improvement) would be willing to submit lower prices given that their demand is correspondingly low; nevertheless, this did not materialize. We also expected that truly innovative products could retain high prices, because of lack of substitution, which was not confirmed as well. This can be ascribed to the flawed selection of comparative products for the tender. Therefore, it is crucial that competitive products are considered on grounds of evidence-based medicines. We also assessed the hospital/outpatient status of medicine and its ability to influence the price of products. Doctors are inclined or even pushed to prescribe medicines in Cyprus, and overuse of prescribed medicines, such as antibiotics, has been well documented [43]. Therefore, we anticipated that the demand for medicines is more likely to be influenced by patient request regarding prescription medicine, compared with hospitaladministered medicines. Hospital medicines carry a higher possibility of substitution, and we expected that hospital medicines would display higher price elasticity. Outpatient medicines reached a statistically significant lower level of price reduction. This could be attributed to interaction with patients in the prescribing process and the higher number of alternative options, which leads to enhanced competition. In the category with products with sales of more than €1,000,000 each (products that are considered blockbusters in the Cyprus context), we verified our previous findings, confirming that the level of innovation is not a prognostic factor and is not associated with price reduction (Table 5). This category emerges as a vital one because it consists of key cost drivers and highly specialized products and it demonstrates high annual increase rate [44]. Moreover, their cost is prohibitive for out-of-pocket procurement and patients exert significant pressure on health agencies for reimbursement of these products. Wholesale price still has a statistically significant association with price reduction; nevertheless, total value displays a negative statistically significant association with price reduction, in line with previous findings. Volume is also a strong prognostic factor. Tendering does not interfere with the inextricable European reference pricing scheme, which results in significant interrelation of medicines’ prices among EU countries. This constitutes a motive for the company to consent to a reduced but locally constrained tender price—as an outcome of a procurement scheme—which in return avoids a spillover effect on pharmaceutical prices in other EU countries should the payer decide to apply price reduction. Tendering is a potent system and excels in primary care, whereas it seems to lack sensitivity in high-value products. It neither addresses uncertainty nor rewards innovation. The principal question is how to enrich the potency of tendering with selectivity. A promising approach is to enrich the tendering types and include a compulsory payback for products that do not possess superior performance. Alternative, risk-sharing projects [45] or other managed entry agreement schemes [46,47] may complement the tendering system. One comparative advantage of tendering versus risk sharing, however, is that tendering addresses affordability, while risk sharing does not. Limitations We acknowledge that several other factors that have not been considered in our current models may influence price reduction such as fiscal pressures on the company, significance of each product within a company’s portfolio, and colloquial pressures by patients’ associations and media. Moreover, we adopted the health technology assessment from France with all the inherent risk it comprises [48]. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that tendering is a potent system and it is influenced by certain parameters. 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